Gary_Fullett joined. Brian_O joined. Gary_Fullett good evening ory Goodevening Gary larryg joined. Brian_O good evening Gary, all ory Hey Brian Gary_Fullett did u all get charts Gary_Fullett steves charst as well Song yes Gary_Fullett very good Gary_Fullett amos tommorow night of cprse.. Gary_Fullett course Brian_O hey ory ory yup Gary_Fullett any q before we beign? Gary_Fullett okaY LETS go Gary_Fullett s and p chart Gary_Fullett i sent this chart to how the trading range Gary_Fullett and to show how we muust have patience Gary_Fullett we knwo that in a tradign range the longer we are in one Gary_Fullett the more cuase being built Gary_Fullett cause vs affect Gary_Fullett so we dont care how long it takes in fact the logner the better Gary_Fullett as we know when it moves more cuase to catch Gary_Fullett but we must have patience as we wait Gary_Fullett so we go thru the trading range Gary_Fullett how does it get resolved? Brian_O sos or sow Song sos or sow? Brian_O joc or break of ice ory yup Gary_Fullett correct Gary_Fullett and what clues do we see generally? Gary_Fullett many ties wider raneg increase volume Gary_Fullett and we cna tell by the closes ory wide bars increase volume Gary_Fullett high end vs low end Anna joined. Gary_Fullett so we can tell by the bar action volume and closes to tell us Gary_Fullett so what do we do mid rnage? Gary_Fullett range Gary_Fullett Nada Gary_Fullett we wait and be patine Gary_Fullett patient Gary_Fullett and havea clear mind ready to pounce like a cat Gary_Fullett if u get chope dup in the tradign rnaGE Brian_O does the length of cause have any effect on whether a retest will take place after a break out of the tr? Gary_Fullett WHEN THE MOVE HAPPENS U R GUN SHY Gary_Fullett TRADE THE EDGES OF THE RANGE Gary_Fullett sorry on the cpas Gary_Fullett cat wake don the key board Gary_Fullett great q briaan Gary_Fullett it depend son the joc or breaking fot he ice how decieve Brian_O in other words a longer tr will lead to a larger move but does that have any bearing on the strength of the breakout? Gary_Fullett if we get a string move Gary_Fullett then many times the retest many not happen rich joined. sb2010 joined. Gary_Fullett so the stornger the break out Gary_Fullett the less lilkley of the retest Gary_Fullett since they ahve trapped mnay traders ory like a vob move Gary_Fullett right Gary_Fullett that odesn tget retested many times Gary_Fullett vob is volume off the bottom JWC joined. Gary_Fullett but that doesnt mean we dont wait for a retest rui joined. Gary_Fullett but odds lessen if u get a strong breakout Gary_Fullett then u can look for 1/2 back ect Brian_O great thanks Gary_Fullett i will show an example of a spring tonight Gary_Fullett that isilatrates something ike u metnioned Brian_O has your experience led you to find that cause of certain durations lead to strong breakouts or is it dependent on the issue that is trading? Gary_Fullett so we watch and be aptinent Gary_Fullett paotient Gary_Fullett patient yesh Gary_Fullett many tiems depend son the issue Gary_Fullett and the " news; that allows the break out Gary_Fullett and the postion of the break out in the trned Gary_Fullett trned . left. . joined. Brian_O :) Gary_Fullett great q Gary_Fullett really was nice Gary_Fullett q on the es Gary_Fullett im sendign monthly charts for the news ltter tonight Gary_Fullett so alot there Gary_Fullett Nasdaq- sand p spread what do u see here? Brian_O weak retest of recent highs Brian_O after strong retrace from high Brian_O but overall in tr Gary_Fullett we are in an uptrend ory but spread remains in upper part of tr Song seems a double top formation Gary_Fullett we we started to break down Gary_Fullett remember what i told u about spreads. Gary_Fullett that the tend to lead Song leading? Gary_Fullett so w ewere ove rbought in the up channel drk left. drk joined. Gary_Fullett and the fact the spread started to turn down may be a negative bias Gary_Fullett yes song the nasdaq tends to lead the sand p for direction Gary_Fullett notice untill recently Gary_Fullett that we hugged the rtl line Gary_Fullett the reverse trned line Gary_Fullett this shows strngth Gary_Fullett though ove rbought Gary_Fullett but now we have broken away from that line Gary_Fullett so a tad more begative Gary_Fullett understand? Song yes, thanks Anna Yes ory sure Gary_Fullett excelent any q? Song +-++ Gary_Fullett today this spread broke lower YG joined. Gary_Fullett and we did get down side continuation ory so we wait Song left. Song joined. Gary_Fullett any q? Gary_Fullett natural gas Gary_Fullett someone aske dme to send Gary_Fullett but i had sent it for the newsltte rlast night Gary_Fullett so i wnate dto share the thoughts coming inot today Gary_Fullett when we break otu Gary_Fullett joc Gary_Fullett or breaking of the ice Gary_Fullett what do we wish to see? Gary_Fullett larger range increased volume Gary_Fullett what did u see at creek Gary_Fullett the bars and the closes Gary_Fullett and the volume Gary_Fullett what did u get? larryg loert hslg closes, light vol larryg lower Brian_O looked strong rallying off ice but lost steam at creek Anna unchanged x4 larryg lacj of demand where there should have been high vol Anna & low vol. rui no demand Gary_Fullett clustered clsoes Gary_Fullett right Gary_Fullett lack fo demand Gary_Fullett when u MUST see demand for a jump ove rthe creek Gary_Fullett look at the closes Gary_Fullett mid rnage to lower mid range Brian_O where would you have shorted, ydy? Gary_Fullett lack of demand Gary_Fullett the weeklyh showed ths as wlel Gary_Fullett and i sent this weeekly chart over the weekned Gary_Fullett the last few bars u coud hvae Gary_Fullett before yesterdays break Gary_Fullett when u see alck of demand Gary_Fullett u cna sell risk abobr the highs by a few hundred bucks Gary_Fullett based on the wid ebar Gary_Fullett what would expect the next bar to be? Brian_O more of the same Gary_Fullett lower or higher? Brian_O lower Anna Follow through Gary_Fullett correct ory follow thr Gary_Fullett and we did today Gary_Fullett good Gary_Fullett but it is clear t see the lack of demand Gary_Fullett any one NOT see it Gary_Fullett good Gary_Fullett so must be cler or u dont know what the heck i am saying Anna Clear Brian_O all clear Captain Gary_Fullett it must be Gary_Fullett so w ecan build that foundation Gary_Fullett great Gary_Fullett u can see the vertical bars i showed Gary_Fullett as weaknes Gary_Fullett this is simalr to the question brian asked eariler.. Gary_Fullett on retest abd all Gary_Fullett this is smething that if mastered can make a very comfortable living for u and yoru family Song how should one tell this from absorbing? Gary_Fullett we have a low Gary_Fullett and mid raneg clsoe Gary_Fullett we talked on thsi yesertday in the webinar Gary_Fullett the cd? Gary_Fullett song the cd? Gary_Fullett this chart? Song no, I ma sorry, it is the weakness on the creek Song and absorb on the creek Song how to tell each other Gary_Fullett bascailly by the closes Gary_Fullett and by the trned Gary_Fullett but u have a low Gary_Fullett and a close mid range Gary_Fullett it si the first low Gary_Fullett the left side of the horizonatal bar Gary_Fullett see this? Song yes Gary_Fullett where i began my text Gary_Fullett so we now that the back round is weakness Gary_Fullett we see possible stopping action Gary_Fullett on that wide bar Gary_Fullett but we knwo after a move Gary_Fullett we should get what? Song is the right side sort of retest of the broken ice? Gary_Fullett yes larryg Trading range Song I think I understand your logic, thanks a lot. Gary_Fullett but i wnat to show u so thing important Gary_Fullett so we knwo the retest will come Gary_Fullett not my logic wyckoff;s :) Gary_Fullett so w eget a retest Gary_Fullett look at the retest bar!!! Gary_Fullett u have wide bar Gary_Fullett HIGH voume Gary_Fullett volume Gary_Fullett the ideal spring Gary_Fullett why? Gary_Fullett because it traps the most traders larryg lots of stops hit Gary_Fullett the weak shorts rui high volume close in the middle Gary_Fullett yes larry Gary_Fullett longs get out Gary_Fullett shorts come in Gary_Fullett but this wid ebar wiht volume Gary_Fullett says the tranferce of risk is greatest Gary_Fullett so from ths chart do u expect higher? Song kind of wash out? Gary_Fullett yes Gary_Fullett thats the purpose of the spring larryg at TR high in downtrend, expect lower Gary_Fullett from weak hands to stronger hands Gary_Fullett good eyes larry g larryg but no ending action i can see to short here Gary_Fullett do u expect thsk srig to retest Gary_Fullett back to the highs of this cart Gary_Fullett to 9900 area? Gary_Fullett yes or no? Song it may test 9800 as I see larryg seems like enough cause, but bars dont look that strong. no sos here Song 9880 Song the supply bar Brian_O it would probably help if I was looking at the right chart larryg would not hold it to see if it gets there, but might short it if it does Gary_Fullett do u exept ths sprign to eb succesful to go much higher? Gary_Fullett lol brian Gary_Fullett sprngs fail in down trned Randy springs fail in downtrends Brian_O no, since it is w/in a a downtrend Gary_Fullett trend Gary_Fullett right randy Brian_O doesn Gary_Fullett go to the snd chart of this Brian_O t mean it can Brian_O t but odds don Gary_Fullett so the sprting in the down trned Brian_O t favor it happening Gary_Fullett fail Randy scalp only Gary_Fullett so it is only a scalp Gary_Fullett great randy sb2010 left. n joined. Gary_Fullett so we did break today Gary_Fullett went to 8730 area Gary_Fullett so we had a retest ack to the spring Gary_Fullett back Randy tu larryg 9730? Randy y Gary_Fullett yes larryg big break Gary_Fullett so u cna see a scalp of a spring Brian_O sounds like it Gary_Fullett if the trned wa sup we can hod and buy a retest a swell Brian_O better be quick to take your profits Gary_Fullett well the market went to resiatnce swetz joined. Gary_Fullett as we said a scalp of a spring ina down move veyr proper Gary_Fullett but u cna clearly see the spring Gary_Fullett and the retest of creek Gary_Fullett so a Great example Gary_Fullett any q? larryg even though not strong rally on left side of TR that price is testing, the huge vol on the spring seems quite reliable buy setup Gary_Fullett corect larry g great eyes Gary_Fullett the proper set up Gary_Fullett aN AREA t5o look for a trade Gary_Fullett and after the sprign NO retest Gary_Fullett as we talked eariler about retest Gary_Fullett the strong move ddint allow for a retest Gary_Fullett any q? Gary_Fullett okay Gary_Fullett cocoa Gary_Fullett someone aske dme to send Gary_Fullett in dec - jan Gary_Fullett we have a tendency to rally due to harvest Gary_Fullett as workers in ghana tend to go on stroke for higher wages Gary_Fullett so as u cna see we have a tradiugn range withn a trading range Brian_O hopefully there will be not strokes :) Gary_Fullett so we know we have a trading range wihtin a trading range building cause Gary_Fullett lol sorry strikes Gary_Fullett though the heatr can give em strokes Gary_Fullett nice catch brians now leave lol Brian_O OK hanging head in shame Gary_Fullett lol Gary_Fullett so w ehave cause buld for a move ory you,ll be fine Brian Gary_Fullett again we wait for a sos or sow Gary_Fullett on the right side of the range Gary_Fullett any q on anything Gary_Fullett we have 3 more charts form mt swetz rh left. Brian_O thumb/forefinger method should yield a move up to highs, no? Brian_O assuming a break above creek Gary_Fullett i think so brian Song you mentioned wheat before of retest the broken ice, do you think it retested in the past several days? around 700? Gary_Fullett it ahs retested in wheat Gary_Fullett but untill we get abve the 705 in wheat still weak Gary_Fullett so we need to take out that resiatce 702 in amrch Gary_Fullett march Song I mean a failed retest based on daily chart Gary_Fullett yes so far Song yes, march Gary_Fullett yes.. Song thanks a lot Gary_Fullett my pleasure Gary_Fullett so with out furthe delay mr steve will take us home Gary_Fullett if he can clear the crimbs from the key board.. Gary_Fullett crumbs ory Hi Steve Gary_Fullett so tommorow will be amos.. Song he have to fell in sleep Gary_Fullett prbbaly watching fox tv swetz howdy Ory :) Gary_Fullett and gettong all reeved up lol swetz lol Song and Gary Brian_O good evening Steve Gary_Fullett fell asleep wiht a cookie swetz I got 3 SnP charts but lets start with the last one first swetz howdy Brian :) yoohoo joined. swetz the last chart is the monthly SnP chart swetz now we know that the November bar shows a HIGHER high AND HIGHER low compared to the October bar Duke left. swetz so buyers are still on the offense BUT we see that the buying is WEAK swetz now why do I say that? swetz how about that the a vertical supply area is being tested, a resistance level is being tested, and the November bar is reacting from an UT position swetz also the CLOSE of this month's bar was near the BOTTOM of a narrow range bar AND the CLOSE was just barely below last month's close . left. . joined. swetz now if you are a LONG-TERM trader, you could go short right now with a stop above the November high bt left. JWC left. swetz looking for a reaction to either the demand TL that I have drawn on this chart or even a test of the 1000 swetz level larryg so much for a santa claus rally:) swetz lol Larry swetz now the SMI/Wyckoff course would say that the HIGHER quality trade would be to actually wait for the SnP to decisively BREAK below the demand TL and THEN short a TEST of the UT ory this is true Steve YG left. swetz they would say this because the demand TL is still INTACT Brian_O I'm sensing a 'but' coming swetz lol Brian swetz the benefits of waiting for the demand TL to BREAK BEFORE initiating a short trade swetz is that the SnP isgiving us strong evidence that the uptrend is in real danger of ENDING tonyw do you think the monthly chart in uptrend? if so, UT will fail, why go short? larryg steve couldnt you say that the demand TL was already broken by the may supply break and now price is retesting that UT? looks like you drew a demand bar there. your thoughts ory stops should be in place swetz Tony - agree, which is why we EACH must have a objective method to determine the TREND swetz one person's method may not be the same as anothers swetz Larry - you certainly make an excellent point swetz again, it is about how EACH person DETERMINES the TREND swetz but however you determine it, it MUST be SIMPLE and MUST be used CONSISTENTLY Gary_Fullett tony the monthly can be seen as a 1/2 back rally Gary_Fullett form the 2007 lws Gary_Fullett and the 2000 highs Gary_Fullett so the trend may actually be nuetral tonyw Got it, Thanks Gary_Fullett so thats part of steves statement swetz thx Gary :) Gary_Fullett yw didnt mean to interupt Gary_Fullett wanted to add to yoru expertie swetz now sometimes what we can do is drill down to a smaller timeframe to maybe get a better picture of what is going on swetz so that brings us to the next to last chart swetz the daily SnP index swetz chart swetz this daily chart shows that the SnP has been in an UPTREND since the August low swetz late August swetz until this last reaction, the previous reactions have only lasted about 1-3 bars and have declined 25-26 points swetz you have probably heard Gary say several times that weak reaction usually last about 1-3 days swetz we can see the wisdom of this statement by the reactions occurring in Sept and October swetz however in November a CHANGE in BEHAVIOR occurs swetz the reaction falls for SEVEN bars and declines about FIFTY-FOUR points swetz and VOLUME INCREASES compared to the last selling waves swetz so we can conclude that although the daily TREND is still UP swetz the selling is getting STRONGER swetz thus WEAKENING the UPTREND, NOT ENDING but WEAKENING ory broke support swetz so now we have seen a little sideways TR form which I have shaded n Have you looked at, or considered both charts as broad TRs? swetz N - which 2 charts? n Each entire chart... n Monthly and daily just covered.. Brian_O left. swetz I do look at the weekly chart (not shown) as a big TR n Nothing personal Brian... swetz lol N, must have been something I said :) n The monthly, as a TR in entirety, shows greater swetz I still look at the daily chart as being in an uptrend n EDM...and more of a struggle to rally swetz I can see the monthly in a TR as well n and the last rally within the TR could only reach the half-way level... n You could carry that scanrio over onto the daily, usoing that contrext... n scenario swetz well I do agree with you that the ability for the 1/2 point to HOLD is a problem for the daily chart n and monthly... swetz problem for the bulls I should say swetz yep n Did not mean to distract, but it makes for an intersting look at what you have been covering..continue on your perspective...ty... swetz also, if we look at the bars marked by the pink arrows swetz good points made by you N :) n Love - 40 swetz we can see that EACH time the SnP closed near the high, there was NO upside follow-through the next day swetz lol N swetz and this action compliments what N mentioned earlier about the 1/2 point swetz the 1/2 point just so happens to be at 1200 swetz the minor creek area of this little box or TR swetz each time the buyers rally the market, sellers defend 1200 each time swetz and now we are seeing more tests of the SUPPORT or ICE area of this shaded box or TR swetz and this is a problem for the buyers swetz because they have the responsibility to step up to the plate to DEFEND the 1175 area or support area of this little TR swetz we already saw that the sellers were successful in defending 1200 swetz not it is up to the buyers to defend 1175 swetz we can look at the 3rd to last chart which is the hourly SnP chart to get a better view of this battle going on in this box n Inside day, today, mid-range close, not an easy read, but not saying a lot for the sellers, either... swetz agree N swetz on the hourly chart, we see stopping action to the hourly downtrend from the early November high ory inside day to form an apex ? swetz I have marked the Selling Climax, Automatic Rally, Secondary Test tonyw inside day means indecision? swetz that has stopped the hourly downtrend leading to a TR swetz Ory - possible Randy means the range of the bar is inside the previous bar swetz Tony - temporary balance between buyers and sellers ory Thanks Steve tonyw Thanks Steve swetz this hourly chart shows the CREEK and ICE levels of this box or TR swetz and shows the 1/2 point that N mentioned earlier swetz what is interesting about this TR swetz is that the minor SWING HIGHS are forming at LOWER and LOWER points swetz look at the down arrows swetz notice that the minor rallies within this TR are getting WEAKER and WEAKER n Characteristic of distribution... swetz yes sir N :) swetz when the TR began, the SnP was spening more time near the CREEK which is bullish swetz BUT as the TR has continued to unfold, NOW the SnP is spending more time near the ICE which is bearish n How was the vol for the last three bars? swetz the volume has increased today n One could then say buyers held pretty well, and sellers failed to take control... swetz if the close was stronger, I would agree N, but with the close being mid-range then it becomes a much harder read for me swetz and I cannot dismiss that the rallies are making less upside progress each time n I understand, but the intial bar was edge to buyers, and no further damafge the rest of the day, and it held the half-way mark... swetz if I saw a strong up bar tomorrow, I would instantly change my read on the situation n Thjat is why I asked how vol was for last three bars.. swetz I must see that buyers are serious about using these reactions to Ice as opportunities to ACCUMULATE positions in stocks swetz an important clue to see the intentions of the big boys is upward EOM on increased volume swetz when I see that rallies are getting weaker and weaker, I must conclude that the big boys are in no hurry to accumulate stocks swetz which means that lower prices are coming until I see evidence of demand swetz I personally used the last reaction to Ice to begin probing on the long side of the market swetz but so far, my probe is not amounting to anything with the market testing the Ice area once again swetz the longer the SnP hangs around the Ice area, I have to conclude that the demand is drying up from the buyers swetz and if buyers cannot defend an area that provided support in the past, then I must conclude that the support area will break swetz until the market falls to a price that buyers are willing to step in to overcome the sellers swetz if Ice breaks, I will personally get out of my probe unless my probe shows amazing relative stength swetz and if I see strong demand enter the market, even as early as tomorrow, I will consider ADDING another position swetz for now, I am cautious, because the rallies are getting weaker on this hourly chart, the last reaction on the daily chart is showing more selling than we have seen in a couple of months, and we see that the monthly chart is possibly setting up for a more substantial reaction, swetz I do not want to get on the long side in a big way until I see that the buyers are showing enough demand that will likely lead to JUMP above the CREEK of this shaded box or TR swetz a strong demand bar would be a big step in the right direction swetz all done, any questions? n I just took a look at the daily vol...highest since 16 Nov, and px broke hard on the 17th...High volume, no reward for sellers... n High vol no reward today swetz if the effort of the sellers today provided a weak result, what should we expect should happen tomorrow? n effort v reward,...mid-range close...your longs may be okay... n Rally... tonyw do you think today's first hour bar to be strong? swetz exactly N n Maybe even a spring, as an outside shot... swetz which is why I am willing to buy stocks IF I see upward EOM tomorrow n No moss in your portfolio... swetz if buyers were truly successful in holding the bag swetz the market should shoot up swetz after the sellers have exhausted their selling pressure swetz upside EOM, especially on strong volume will be my clue to look for long trades swetz tomorrow swetz the market, by its own action, as Wyckoff preaches will be my guide n May the volume winds be at your back.... swetz Tony - I do not because the bar still made a lower high and there was not much upside follow-through by the end of the day swetz :) N n Cheers! swetz if the market "hugs" the 1175 area tomorrow Randy agree swetz, especially if you include the gap open lower n left. swetz then my plan will be to NOT buy anthing swetz anything swetz any other questions? answers? Randy good job, great analysis larryg ty steve, very good Song thanks a lot larryg left. Warren__ thks Steve and Gary Tommy thanks gary and steve for your excellent comments ... ory TY Steve excellent rui ty steve, gary ory and Gary TY tonyw Thank you very much, Steve and Gary, for the excellent teaching drk THANKS Guys swetz thx Randy, Song, Larry, Warren, Tommy, Ory, rui, drk, and Tony swetz okay, guys have a great night rui left. Gary_Fullett ty all Gary_Fullett steve is wnderful Randy tu gary Gary_Fullett everyone thisn k so but his date slol swetz hopefully we will know by the end of the week which way the SnP will break out of this box ory agreed Gary_Fullett agree . left. . joined. Gary_Fullett amos tommorw swetz lol Gary, true :( :) Gary_Fullett lol swetz left. Gary_Fullett kelly as well about me lol Gary_Fullett see ua ll tomorow ty Gary_Fullett left.