Amos joined. Jon are there any charts for tonight? Amos Hi Ory Hi Amos EricC left. Mr_Steve Hi Amos Gary_F left. Gary_F joined. Gary_F left. Gary_Fullett joined. Jon I didn't see any charts posted in teh archives for tonight? Ory busy man Mr_Steve Amos I am sorry to hear about the shootings Gary_Fullett they are poste dunder todays date Ory under sept 1 Alvin left. Jon thanks Amos Thank you Steve--very few cultures can walk and shoot a preganant woman at point blank. But that is the Culture President Obama bows to-- so we have to respect our president warren joined. Mr_Steve I have no respect for Obama Jon i think they do if in iraq every day Amos September started with a bang-- but the true picture is rather iffy and crucial-- and here are a few examples Amos First chart is the dollar monthly Jon Amos, im new to the room what is your connection with Gary and your background Amos we do have the highest volume in May this year which closed at the high, made a higher high and then went into a "corrective" dive Amos Jon , my connection with Gary is a private matter and you should not pry into our dark secrets Jon ji thought Gary taught just trying t understand here Amos My background at this moment is a large closet with pictures of Steinhardt and aphorisms of Coolidge strewn all over it Amos I also have a very dry and wry sense of humor-- so you will have to surrer thru it Amos suffer Jon no problem Randy Amos teaches every Wed, thats about all any of us know and he does a great job Ory oh, i have Amos Jon that's great...amos what is your background if I may ask Randy wrong Ory Amos I looked, jon and it is a large closet Amos continuing with the dollar monthly Amos August closed near the high and if the July August was a corrective reaction then we need a monthly thrust Amos I wrote on the chart that a Monthly thrust will be important. So far we started the month with retreat Amos you know that I pay attention to the Steinhardt model of the first day of the month-- being an "OPENING RANGE" and quite ofter the break of that range is a signal for the rest of the month , or at least for a few (3-9 usually) days in that direction. Amos Last sentence is statistically fishy-- because you can have several months in a row that this "rule" is being violated and then you can have a few months in a row that it is "insanely" accurate-- but to use it as a confident model-- can be very dangerous. Amos Yet- I keep looking at it because many times after MID MONTH-- if you see the market respecting that thrust-- either the high of the first day of the month or the low of that day-- the second half of the month-- tends to obey Jon yes like using the 60min opeing bar for intra-day bias Amos At any rate-- if we combine the high volume of May 2010 and the strong close-- withe the fact that fact (I showed it a few weeks ago) that the QUARTERLY CHART HELD its LOW by a few ticks-- then it stands to reason that a MONTHLY THRUST in the DOLLAR will cause at least a TEST of the Highs of June Amos We shall sese Amos It is almost futile to guess such an outcome-- but if you get a monthly thrust--- I WOULD NOT be short the dollar! Amos This is only a hint of the significance of the month of september in many markets and this is the theme for tonight Amos Next chart is gold monthly Song joined. wyatt joined. Amos We had a Large KR in February. Made lower low--which turned out to be a BACK TO THE 2008 high --and if this is indeed a JUMP AND BACK-- then GOld should continue higher and even much higher Amos Sorry, that kr was Dec 2009! rh joined. Amos we had a thrust in July and we are now testing the June highs Amos If that thrust was part of the thrust after KR model-- then this is kind of a top Amos if the JUMP AND BACK model is at work-- then the thrust is NOT at work Jon KR? Amos Key Reversal Jon thanks Amos Then you can see that we are bumping an important area that has held since the KR and last 4 months Amos somewhere around 1200-1240 Jon chart looks like price needs to rest here bit extended Amos Again== if you look back on that chart you can see that 4-5 months is a typical range behavior for gold ==so again -- it is highly likely that This month-- September will be a crucial point in time for gold Amos in a moment I show that the CRB reaches its 21st month of rally in September and if Gold will SURRENDER to the CRB (so far it is acting rather independent and ONe Senator even questions whether there is any bar of Gold in Fort Knox!!!!--We must send James Bond with some 6 whitely clad beauty to fly over that place once more) Amos so If, per chance that fibo number has any significance at this corner-- then-- the action of gold in the next few days ( since we are so close to that crucial resistance level--and a minor second thrust will only make the next correction more violent) Amos I write on the chart: Crucial test of the THRUST AFTER kr-- prepare for some fireworks Amos Next chart is probably the most crucial one-- the CRB monthly Amos It is rather interestingly spread with fibo counting Alex joined. Amos We had a huge 5 months "correction" of almost 50% of multi year rally. Follwed by 13 months rally to the point at which the crb BROKE THE LAST SUPPORT of early 2008 then 7 months of sideways action and we are now in the 8th month which brings us to the 21 months rally from the low Amos We had ONE THrust after the Jan KR--which was violated-- and we closed August as a tiny reversal-- but it was a NARROW MONTH which closed in the MIDDLE-- so it calls , at least , nominally, for a few days, or weeks of range behavior-- and then we should see as September develops, or comes--- whethere Autust was a another THRUST-- or the beginning of further rally Amos AUgust was one of the NARROWEST MONTHS in about 2-1/2 years-- and more often then not this is a lull before a storm Amos Again-- you can see that September is painting itself as a crucial month Amos Combine this with the dollar-- and you get the picture Amos The Maxim of Sell in May and go away-- that was mentioned here-- is already costing many traders-- if not large losses-- at least a loss of MANY EMOTIONAL DOLLARS Amos We have not talked about Emotional dollars for quite some times--- but it is a VERY important concept and many times very costly-- mostly because it prevents you from the NEXT WINNING TRADE Amos I told you that I am giving a few lectures to some Retirees of the Israeli Defense industry-- and while looking for some reference I fell upon a site that give all the "smart" trading rules of great traders. I was looking , actually , for one of LBR trading rules , did not find it-- but found a compilation of several GURUS and their rules Jon yes, that's why haiving a written trading plan is so important Amos the interesting point that I found-- is that in, I think it was GARTMAN's 30 trading rules--- the mention of those EMOTIONAL DOLLARS came in the TOP 5!!! this surprised me-- and probably this is why my subconcious is mentioning it here (this happened last weekend) Amos At any rate-- this point-- of getting into a trade too early, or too big , or not waiting for a clear signal, or, as jon said-- not haveing a "TRADING PLAN"-- in other words-- BREAKING your plan--- is, many times, MORE CRUCIAL than the actual dollars you lose on a trade Amos Very few people can sit on a disturbing loss and yet, keep an open and free mind to do othere correct trades (no matter how many actual dollars ARE IN YOUR ACCOUNT!) Jon its rule number 3 Jon mental capital trumps real capital Amos you get pissed off at yourself for not obeying your wn rules-- and then your subconscous is sending some warning signal to your acting brain-- saying--"Hey, perhapse I am wrong here too?" Amos This whole thing of the PAIN OF THE TRADER-- is a very important subject-- it is very personal and everyone of us deals with it somewhat differently-- but the MARKET IS A GENIUS at KNOWING those PAIN LEVELS and it UTILIZES this "knowledgE" to the utmost Amos Market can play with only thruee parameters: PIT Amos Price Amos Information Amos Time Jon yes it also never forgets how much money we make Amos Right now-- most markets are trading in rather NARROW RANGES-- (even if the dow can go up and down 300 points daily---this is still small peanuts)---so if PRICE is NOT the subject of manipulation-- then TIME IS! Chuck left. Chuck joined. Amos And one can lose a lot of money while the market is STANDING STILL -- but does it for ENOUGH length of time Amos ---it seems that this is the theme of 2010--- mostly biding for time. Jon yes and it maybe for sometime for equities Amos It is quite amazing how the CM can simply SHUT us in a narrow range-- lock the gates, throw the keys away and let us BOIL in our own BILE Amos Humn nature is such that we tend to LOSE confidence with time Amos Patience is very much connected to pain. Amos And when you lose your conviction-- and the move starts-- invariably-- you take the OTHER SIDE-- the OPPOSITE OF WHAT YOU BELIEVED all thru the Agonizing waiting period Amos this is something every trader should be very aware off Amos I am at a point that I think that every trader should go thru a "PAIN WORKSHOP". Learning how to deal with their pain levels-- Jon i guess that is why trading is 80%mental and mastering oneself Amos I am thinking about such workshop very seriously Amos If you do NOT KNOW your pain threshold-- you are at a large disadvantage in the market Amos Next chart amplifies on that Amos it is corn monthly Jon if you don't know you will soon find out Amos You can see that since the large OKR in corn from 300 to about 420 in Dec 2008--- we have been trading in the same range for 21 months-- again-- the cruciality of September 2010 Amos Will this 21 month range in corn --resolve itself? are we going to 34 months? Amos Notice how open interest is abck to all time high levels Amos This is the nature of ranges-- they tend to attract more and more people who are convinced that a BREAK OUT IS IMMINENT-- (they are not sure of the Domain) and they are building large positions betting on the break Amos JL , of course tells traders that is is FUTILE to bet inside a range-- so does Steinhardt-- but people want to bet-- and like every one who is betting Red or Black on the Rollette table and they see RED coming up 20 times in a row-- will put LARGE SUM of MONEY on the BLACK -- because IT IS TIME FOR IT TO SHOW UP! Amos I lost quite a bit of money betting this way in Vegas-- in my youth Jon funny Amos Unfortunately-- I still make the same mistake in the markets-- like everyone else-- I DECIDE that the market shoudl MOVE ALREADY! Amos Not a good "trading plan" Konrad joined. Amos So-- Corn is coming to a RHS-- and it looks like accumulation galore-- is it? Amos Again-- depends on the CRB-- because f the CRB breaks down-- we will go into a TAIL SPIN in all hard assets! Amos Do not know Amos I see more and more articles that boggle my mind-- the main topic is the GROWING GAP between the haves and the have nots Jon except maybe gold? Amos It turns out that MOST STATISTICAL MEASURES show that the upper 20% of our society is RICHER THAN EVER and is GETTING RICHER-- no matter how many homes are being foreclosed and how many millions of poor people are unemployed! Amos I, in my great stupidity, thought that after Madoff and GM and Fannie and Freddie--- the system will continue to cleanse itself--- NOPE! Jon it can't humans are destined to repeat all this in cycles Amos Obama gives us very good example how well you can live in Spain and in Martha's wineyards while the rest of America is collectin welfare PiggyBack joined. Amos so, again, Corn joins the bunch of charts that say that September is crucial this year Amos Next chart is Coffee, annual Jon no Obama fan but Every president of every country goes on vacation? Amos I drew a rectangle around current prices-- and you can see that in the past 17 years this area of 170-180 has been important resistance,except of two aberrations of 94 and 97 Amos of course there were some years in the past that coffee reached 3.60 but the current data base does not show them Amos at any rate Amos it seems that 180 is a "normal" place where coffee hedgers are more than happy to let us have all the beans we want-- and they will deliver to us their shorts in case prices go higher Amos again the Armand Hammer famous case (that most people do not remember any longer-- because the industry does not want you to remember--- ) Amos those who recall know that Hammer, the Owner of Oxidental Petroleum was the owner of many Silver mines in Idaho, Silver valley , and the old codger KNEW it cost him about 5 dollars to produce an ounce of Silver and he was VERY HAPPY to sell to anyone his $5 silver for 35 dollars and above-- because he simply LOCKED INTO SURE PROFIET-- NO MATTER HOW HIGH SILVER WENT! Amos Come to think of-- the whold field of commodities is barely 40 years old (I mean organized exchanges, not actual merchandizing-- like Marco Polo did with CHina and such) Amos yet it is very succesful and growing (just look at the chart of CME stock) Amos WHY? Amos because of the simple fact that it REALLY ALLOWS PRODUCERS and MANUFACTURERS of ACTUAL COMMODITIES-- to TRULY HEDGE THEMSLEVES Amos THis whole business that we are trying to guess from day to day-- is actually a fantastic mechanism of PROTECTION OF BONE FIDE INDUSTRIES against bad mishaps Amos We can criticize and complain about the shenanigans and vagaries of this CHEATING and Manipulating business-- but at the BOTTOM LINE-- it provides a very HEALTHY venue for LEGITIMATE businessmen to TRANSGER THEIR RISK TO US! Jon yeah can be a nuclear war head in the wrong hands too...aig Amos Jon--there are always bad apples in a crate-- this is human nature Jon yeah very true Amos At any rate-- coffee seems to be at a level at which hedgers will be happey to sell-- just a thought Jon it all comes back to fear and greed and the reason why we see the smae patterns repeat themselves in the market over time Amos Next chart is sugar annual Amos Again-- a mess Amos This is NOT true demand for sugar (who is using sugar these days?) Amos I marked last 2 years with an oblonged ellipse Jon ethanol Jon brazil Amos The fact that we retraced to violently and dropped from 30 to 15 so fast--only indicates that it is NOT true demand- but that Sugar is nothing but another part of trading game Amos and if we close the year arond current levels (rather presumptious to say that in September, 4 months before end of year)-- but if that happens-- one thing can be said with high level of assuredness- is tha it will bound a range for quite some time-- and we will go back to "normal" ranges of less than 10 cents a year themick left. Amos OTOH , if we close the year near the lows-- we may, as well, continue to creep lower and 2009-2010 was a quick bubble Amos Next chart is Dow transport Amos 2010 is obviously Narrow range Amos the close of the year will be important-- but the you can easily call this bar- SOT Amos if we take out the low of the year-- next year-- we get a classical THRUST AFTER HUGE OKR hokah joined. Amos and that will mean that the next few years-- will see serious slow down of the economy Amos I keep falling again and again into the trap of "MAKING A PREDICTION" and that is a crime-- as you know warren not rea;;y -- its a model that has to prove itself Amos but the fact remains that 2 years CANNOT COMPLETE a correction of such a prolonged and huge bull move-- and if you remember the 1907 analogy-- after the rally to 1910--- the market continued to meander down for several years (ending with WWI) Amos Warren-- please explain-- which model ahs to prove itself? warren thrust after okr Amos how does a model prove itself? warren just a saying -- we wait for conformation roger left. Amos I am confused-- I just said that the model will "happen" only if in 2011 we take out the LOWS of 2010--- and if that happens-- I say that the odds that we continue to decline are Better than 50%---then what does "prove itself" means? Amos My expereince is that this particular thrust is a fantastic trading method-- and it is all based on DENNIS DUNN THRUST method with which he made hundreds of millions of dollars-- what more do you want as a proof? Amos Of course, Dunn was a UNIQUE INDIVIDUAL who ONLY USED THAT MEHTOD-- and the reason he made money --was his model PLUS HIS DISCIPLINE!@!!! most of us MIX MODLES Amos if you have doubts about the thrust method-- then most of what I say is meaningless warren you were questioning "making a prediction" -- I say use the model as I think is your leaning -- are we toying with words? Amos At any rate-- this is another example how a market that can fly up and down with vengeance-- can , just like that, go from HUGE PRICE MANIPULATION into TIME MANIPULATION and we are still waiting for the last beahaviro to replicate itself Jon or have no discipline Amos No, warren, I am NOT TOYING with words-- I am just admitting that I am losing my patience and I wish it was already next year and I got the signal-- until then it will be very difficult to WAIT- and I am slipping into TELLING THE MARKET what it will do-- and admitting it Amos This is the CURSE OF TIME AND PATIENCE Amos This is why GOOD TRADERS NEVER TALK Amos Next chart is crude-- and again-- same curse warren Im listening! Amos Market had a break of multy month support-- close away from the low-- but still a huge break of 20 cents in May Amos only to go into full DORMANCY for the next 4 months Amos the "simple" decision-- if you have a plan is to WAIT for the range determeined in MAY to resolve itself Amos The inclination is to try and GUESS when it will happen-- and the market has INFINITE WISDOM , INFINITE POCKETS and INFINITE PATIENCE! Amos August closed WEAK Amos and the tendency is to say-- THAT IS IT! Amos Not so fast buddy Amos makret has time Amos very hard on the EMOTIONAL DOLLARS! Amos Next chart is again similar situation--Australian dollar Amos May was a CLEAR BREAK OF THE LAST LOW (Feb this year) Amos Since we rallied back to the TOP of a clear Multi year RANGE--- you would expect that the same way it rallied from the 60 back to the 90--- it will rush and do the same at least back to 50% retreacement Amos NOPE Amos WHY? PiggyBack left. Amos because TOO MANY TRADERS SEE IT AND EXPECT IT! Amos The curse of the E -signals is upon us-- as I have warned many times-- EVERY RICE FARMER IN CHINA can afford an E signal these days-- and they see the same patterns and suffer from the same illusions that all of us suffer Jon commodity play too from your crb chart Amos The more the world is equipped with the same data vendors and charts--the more time will have to be spent-- SHAKING THEM OUT Jon the rice farmers know candle charts too ;) Amos Yes, jon, I know that argument-- but it is hogwash-- one day this relationship will break and we will stand there holding our pippies and wondering-- what happend to Raison Detre! Amos Currency is NOT the function of ores alone Amos At any rate--every one and his brother is looking for Aussie to repeat itself-- and the TIME GAME is now in full force--period Jon just that china must covert to the aussi as they sure buy a lot and it looks like it is not going to slow anytime soon with all the people ther Amos THe trouble is that most people are anxious to get on board for fear of LOSING THE BOAT! Amos well for that they composed that famous song-- " on a SLOW boat to china" Jon ah that word fear again Amos Jon-- the fundamental forum is next door Jon fundamentals drive the technicals over the longterm Amos I do not know what to say about the aussie--only that it has become a favorite game of big Forex guys-- and they toy with us at will-- so perhaps the most intelligent advice is to keep playing the 4 hour bar charts and FORGET the large trend for the time being Amos Last chart is the oex Amos Any normal chart guy will tell you that May looks like the pole of a flag (that was VERIFIED BY MAKING LOWER LOWS!!!) Amos and that this flag should resolfe itself to the down side Amos THe rally of 2009 has been markedly the weakes of all the EQUITY componenets-- and the assumption that OPTIONS PLAYERS are STILL THE SMARTEST OF THE BUNCH-- is compelling Amos so according the close of AUgust--- we should continue down Amos We opened September with a bang Amos The cliche In like a lion out like a lamb-- usually is reseved to March Amos so We are left with William Holden (I think he played in "come September") Amos Is it a bear flag? Amos Mr September will tell Amos Haook Amos Open for questions Jon what is your top setup you see right now? Mr_Steve Could you talk about CorrelTIONS SOMETIMES. Mr_Steve sorry about caps Amos Jon, my top setup right now is (imaginary) with Bar Refaeli below me Mr_Steve I know about the dollor a Euro what could be others. Could you talk on it sometime? Jon nice...might have to share her with leonardo ;) Mr_Steve hedging Amos Steve--correlations are very tempting-- they work once in a while-- but I lost so much money in my career trying to rely on them-- that I have given up. Jon so no pairs trades? Amos They appeal mostly to the cerebral part of a trader-- "they make sense"-- but in the long run-- sense is NOT what makes money in the market Mr_Steve Thanks for your yime tonight. Ypu are allwas a pleasure to listen to. Do you plan on doing any Webinars? Amos Jon-- be more specific-- The charts I present I think are the most interesting for trades-- once the setup occurs-- which pairs are you talking about> Jon if your an investor they are but not for a trader Amos Steve-- I think that Webinars-- are a wonderful tool Amos showing ideas on live analysis can drive them home better than anhy Ory sugar and coffee Amos Amos I understand that Gary's bar by bar presentation are a huge success-- if done in a challengin way-- and you try to make "trading decisions" ON LINE with all honesty-- and trying to FEEL THE PAIN even if it is only virtual-- can be a WONDERFUL LEARNING EXPERIENCE---MOSTLY ABOUT YOUR PAIN LEVEL Amos Ory, SUgar and Coffee are spices Jon amos do you trade us equities? Amos Of course, jon Mr_Steve But you did not answer, do you plan on doing any Webinars? Jon anything you like at the moment rh left. Papa the webinars are a god send Amos Steve- it depends on Internet facilities Ory yes i am aware Amos Mr_Steve Have a nice evening all Gary_Fullett maybe in go to meeting amos Gary_Fullett go to webinar Mr_Steve left. Amos I can think of a few other places you can wish me to go warren thank you, Amos, you share your thoughts like no other! Gary_Fullett i am gettign amos to do a power point Gary_Fullett and p and f Jon an experience amos...thanks Amos yes, warren, I am that kind of sharing guy (sharing plough) Randy Amos helps keep us Honest and diciplined! Very good if you pay attention and listen! Gary_Fullett maybe for newsltter folks or something will see Gary_Fullett agree randy Ory TY Gary Amos Hill street blues aphorism "lets be careful out there" is very appropriate for this Sep Amos Let us have a nice month Amos HAPPY ROSH HASHANA TO ALL and GOOD LABOR DAY to those of you who are foolish enough to work Jon left. Amos gn Song thanks a lot Amos left. Ory TY Amos Gary_Fullett amos is a rare briird Gary_Fullett but read between the lines with him alot to review Ory but an awse character Papa gary the application was sent today please let me know when you recieve Gary_Fullett papa private me vs the room Ory awesome Papa how? Gary_Fullett double click my name Papa opps sorry Gary_Fullett no probelem lol Gary_Fullett any q? Ory i,mm good gary,,,,,,,,,,,,,and Thanks Gary_Fullett ok great ty time for charts night all Gary_Fullett ty Gary_Fullett left.