Amos joined. Amos Hi Ory Hi Amos abc163 hi amos Alex joined. Gary_Fullett joined. Amos I hope y'all survive these markets. Ory so far Amos I feel a bit lucky because I could not trade last few days (family matters) and avoided some moves that would have cost me money Amos 2010 is turning out to be a tough year-- we are closing the FIRST DECADE of this millenium punishing a lot of traders--perhaps this is a "signal" for years to come Amos I will focus again on the difference between analysing markets and trading them, the difference between "understanding" a model and USING it and the difference between making money and losing it Amos First chart is dollar from last week roger joined. Amos It seemed that the reversal around 8500 which caused an 8 days ragne is a "nice" spot to signal the 50% prjection-- so I drew that fibo extention and watched Amos Turned out to be meaningless. Oh well Amos Next chart is early today-- sinde the 8500 point failed-- I am looking at the inception of the next down leg in this huge dollar move-- and it seems that 8450 may be an appropriate candidate for that model-- and since we are in that vicinity -- It watch/ Amos Thosse who do not believe in that signal-- it is ok Amos there is no way to prove this-- and it is NOT etched in stone-- but when you go thru so many charts over many many months and you see that actually it does work many times-- you start looking for it-- at times it is filthily obvious- and at times very devious-- but there IS something to it. rich joined. Amos At any rate it is always a good point to mark those points-- and then LOOK FOR REVERSAL patterns, high volume, end of count and such--- by itself it is NOT a trading model-- but as a warning for a potential point of reversal it is a useful tool Amos Next chart is the semi annual of the dollar Amos I write on the the chart: "Very unusual behavior-- Strong close with THE LARGEST VOLUME for years-- which according to WYckoff should signal VOLUME OFF THE BOTTOM--- and then such a vicious retracement Amos What is it? Amos Only two possibilities- either this is such a good signal that way too many traders joined the wagon and the market MUST SHAKE THEM OFF VIOLENTLY! Amos or---- this is very wrong and instead of VOB-- this volume is huge supply coming into the market Amos I am siding with the first option-- and therefore-- I MUST be very careful mark joined. Amos At any rate-- on the Semi annual chart-- the market can RETRACE ALL THE WAY TO THE BOTTOM OF THE LAST BIG BAR (without breaking its low!!!) and it still maintain the bullish bias! Amos This is a very important point-- SUPPOSE I AM RIGHT and it is indeed a very bullish picture and the next move-- as indicated by the strong close and HIGH VOLUME is a very valid signal-- LOOK HOW DIFFICULT it is to trade it! Amos The market can give you a FANTASTIC SIGNAL-- and yet -- YOU MAY END UP LOSING MONEY becausse -- you are too anxious for things to happen NOW-- while the market is busy WASHING OUT early joiners--- this is one of the big differences between UNDERSTANDING a MODEL and MAKING MONEY WITH IT-- THis is why there are so few GREAT TRADERS! Period Amos Not a nice point -- but true Amos I will give a few more examples to that tonight Amos Next chart is the Point and figure for the dollar-- again -- there is a clean count that will materialize around 80--- it was there ALL THE TIME-- but , as I mentioned last time-- IF YOUR MIND IS NOT IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION-- YOU SIMPLY REFUSE TO SEE THIS-- you refuse to believe that the market will go that far-- when you think it should rise--- Amos ANOTHER EXAMPLE how the best of models can give you the best of tools and the best of estimations-- and you will simply IGNORE it because YOUR MIND IS SET PiggyBack joined. Amos this issue of mindset ( COGITO ERGO SUM-- I THINK THEREFORE I AM-- WHICH makes us so proud of being a RODIN TYPE OF PEOPLE-- "THE THINKERS"....is one painful issue that I will try to deal with later on-- WHAT IS BETTER-- TO BE A THINKER OR TO BE A ROBOT???? Amos big question Amos At any rate the count to 80 on that chart is QUITE VALID! Alex left. hokah joined. Amos The next few chart is something I am rather ASHAMED to show you-- but since I try to share the REAL LIFE of a trader-- SHAME is part of life Amos If you remember a few months ago I BOASTED and DECLARED that the WHEAT/BEANS spread is ONE OF THE "SUREST" TRADES AROUND and ADVOCATED BEING LONG THIS SPREAD FOR QUITE SOME TIME Amos SInce the trade lose week after week-- finally-- OUT OF COMPLETE SHAME and EMBARRASSMENT-- I simply stopped talking about it-- HOW MUCH HUMILIATION CAN ONE PERSON TAKE??? Song joined. Amos well-- I based my "CONFICENT PREDICTION" on ONE THING-- the vact that we had a HUGE DOULE BOTTOM on the monthly chart and I WAS SURE (out of years of trading and seeing this model to be one of the best around--- and IN SPREADS it works like a charm!!) Amos So? Amos Look carfully on the weekly chart of the spread Amos Up until very recently-- this spread gove 3 FALSE STARTS and continued to DRIFT LOWER-- until it BROKE Many other traders (not so bad-- as myself) and then ERRUPTED!!! wyatt joined. Amos THe moral of the story is again the big conflict between doing good analysis and MAKING MONEY IN THE MARKET-- it matter a hill of beans if you call the market right-- and you are TOO EARLY-- the market shames you and you lose your conficence-- and then you lose some of the BEST TRADES Amos what is the answer? Mr_Steve joined. Mr_Steve . Amos It is shamefully simple-- but ONLY GIANTS the likes of BRUCE KOVNER can cope with it Amos I hope you remmeber the famoux quote of Kovner about his great MENTOR-- MICHAEL MARCUS_- what other thing he taught him-- if you do not-- go search in the archives larryg joined. Amos Basically it is about the ABILITY TO DO THE BEST ANALYSIS , BE WRONG ABOUT THE MARKET , get STOPPED OUT--- TRY AGAIN,,, LOSe,,, TRY AGAIN-- and then MAKING A MINT! Amos The ability to NOT LOSE YOUR CONFIDENCE -- GET STOPPED OUT and not be HUMILIATED BY IT-- as LBR likes to say-- GETTING STOPPED OUT is nothing but GETTING SET UP for a BETTER POSITION-- this is so clever-- yet so few people can do it-- one of the main reasons why so few very successful traders around Amos Remember my exmaple of successful SALES PEOPLE? Amos A successful salesman is one who EVERY TIME HE HEARS A "NO"-- THANKS THAT NAY SAYER profusely! Amos How come? Ory one less to a sale Amos Simple if you maket a commission of $100 dollars every time you make a sale-- and it takes you 10 calls to make that sale-- then EACH AND EVERY NO is worth 100 divided by 10= $10 Amos That "NO" sayer just paid you 10 dollars and you should THANK HIM FROM THE BOTTOM OF YOUR HEART Amos Sounds very clever-- but , boy, is it hard to do Amos SAME with getting stopped out of the market Amos Instead of feeling humiliated and stupid-- you should thank the loss because it brings you ever so close to the big win. There are VERY FEW BRUCE KOVNERS. Very few Market Wizards Amos I am NOT one of them rayw joined. Amos So this example of the WHEAT- BEANS spread-- is another one of those examples skylar joined. Amos Instead of KEEPING to harp on that point and trying again and again to enter with a small stop--- I Shamefully IGNORED IT-- both in my account and in my talk here-- VERY POOR TRADING! Amos Such is life Amos so now-- that the market broke above a YEAR HIGH-- what do I do? look for a TOP!!!! Amos how stupid can you be? so I draw a channel and think -- will it stop there? Amos sure Amos Next chart I think perhaps the 50% retreacement of the whole range from 9 to 4 will hold? Amos How stupid can You (I) be? this spread can go all the wat to 9 again. suneel joined. Amos At any rate-- I only brought this example to show you-- that no matter how sure you are with the model, no matter how cofident you are that a trade will work-- the secret of success is NOT the analysis and for sure not the Prediction-- but the PERSISTENCE and the correct money mgmt! period Amos the rest is for chickent and blabber mouths Amos the next chart EXEMPLIFIES IT THE BEST Mr_Steve left. Amos look at the double bottome at 4-- THIS WAS THE REASON why I said it will be such a great trade Brian_O joined. Amos So I started about a year ago--- this is the QUARTELY CHART Amos what did the spread do? Just a "MINOR" CORRECTION-- normal no???? Amos Well that "MINOR " CORRECTION-- was enough to HUMILIATE ME (mainly because I , so arrogantly, DECLARED IT here in this room to be one heck of a trade!!) and last a few months-- to throw me off kilter Currituck left. Amos When you look at this chart-- it really looks stupid to be thrown off a trader because of such a minor correction-- but when it lasts over half a year-- you lose your confidence.. bad trading Amos I write-- Looke how "innocent" and DECEIVING this mild correction is Amos looks NOTHING on the large time frame--- but is VERY PAINFUL on the small er one Amos THIS IS whe trading on several time frames SIMULTANESOUSLY is such a crock-- very few people can do it Amos Important lesson Amos Next chart is point and figure of wheat-- and you can see that it is useless Amos all counts are too short-- Amos You can say-- Hey, Amos-- this is WEATHER MARKET-- this happens once every few years-- and when it happens-- NOTHING WORKS--- Baloney. In hind sight-- you can be sure there will be enoug peole who will show you that "IT WAS OBVIOUS!" Amos in realithy -- it is tough Amos Next wheat chart is the semi annual and you can see that we cut thru all the previous resistance and we can easily go whereever they want Amos in the large picture this huge rally can be part of a mega bear market-- so what? Amos Next chart is the important question that relate to one of the issues I mentioned at the start Amos what is better-- to be a THINKING TRADER--or a ROBOT-- Amos If you look carefully at the weekly wheat chart you can see a small ellipse around april this year Amos it was a OKR that CLOSED AT THE HIGH Amos if you do not think, if you think that THRUST AFTER KR and for sure thrust after OKR is a good model that is worth trading with a good small stop NO MATTER WHAT THE TREND IS, NO MATTER WHAT THE NEWS IS, NO MATTER WHAT ANYONE ELSE SAYS-- and you took the first WEEKLY THRUST in wheat-- you would have made a killing! Amos Again you can also say that it is DOUBLE BOTTOM which ADDS SYNNERGY-- no matter Amos THE POINT HERE IS SIMPLE-- what is BETTER-- To trade your VIEW of the market? to trade your VIEW of the economy? to trade anything else? or simply FOLLOW THE MODEL and DO IT LIKE A ROBOT EACH AND EVERY TIME it shows on the CHART? Amos Folks, this may be the most important question in trading Amos It harks back to the whole issue of CARD COUNTING-- a Sophisticated robot that is thrown out of VEGAS the moment he is detected Amos The answer, of course, is not an intellectual one. The answer lies in the soul and guts of each and every one of us. Those who are not ashamed to be called "robots' (insinuating stupidity, automatons)-- have an edge Dmitry joined. Amos There is no doubt that obeying a good model is profitable in the long run-- the problem is that it requires certain mental attributes that very few people possess Amos If you remember Ed Seykotta in Market wizards-- when he describes his first MEGA TRAD in PLYWOOD (they used to trade the dict once upon a time) Amos He said that Plywook never exceedec 120 dollar per cubic foot-- and the market was very dormant and lazy and there was no news that justified any move above historic highs Amos and then one day it poked above that level Amos and then Sekota says the FOLLOWING AMAZING SENTENCE: " I figured out that if it traded above historic high-- and no one had an explanation-- I thought it could trade ANY PRICE ABOVE IT!!!!!" Amos read this sentence and ponder (when in doubt ponder) Amos This guy figured that plywood could go to ANY PRICE IT WANTED Amos most of us would look for a point to go short because it was "OVERBOUGHT" and he said-- UNCHARTERED AREA means ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE Amos he rode plywood all the way to 200 dollars and that his FIRST FORTUNE IN HIS TRADING CAREER Amos again-- the UNCONVENTIONAL MIND-- allowed him to go with the flow yoohoo great story, thanks Amos THE ROBOT has similar attributes-- it goes with the model and does not Guess tops or bottoms Amos I must tell you that it is indeed very difficult-- but I am getting convinced more and more-- that trading a model (WITH A STOP LOSS, OF COURSE!!) is perhaps a much better approach Amos for sure it is helpful when you trade DIFFICULT MARKETS Amos I do not know how you gusy are doing in the room last few days-- I hope, at least no one gets hurt-- I can only tell you that the traders in the FOREX FORUM--GVI-- are getting MURDERED lately Amos here is an example of a quote from one not a bad trader (not sure where he is from) Amos Saar KaL 13:09 GMT August 4, 2010 what things can not do: Reply The other way of Murphy's Law is...If it's been really bad for the longest time...Then it's it will get better...one way or the other If Murphy was a pessimist...then so am I but the other way...Funny!! Amos he wrote it today and it caught my eye Amos It has been really bad for the longest time Amos The last few days-- have murdered many traders--those who tried to short the pound or the yen Amos I do not know why the market are so tough-- My guess is that it has to do with long term intentions-- the market is scaring a lot of people Amos there is also the possibility that we are getting a "signal" towards the end of 2010-- which is the end of the first decade of thie millinium-- that thins arer going to get rough Amos I do believe that informed forces are sending such signals-- the trick is to read them correctly roger left. Amos back to the wheat-- it is of very litlle value to "see" that okr and the thrust after it== and say = oh so simple Amos NOT AT ALL Amos the only truth is that if you see such a thing and you try it-- YOU WILL MAKE MONEY--- not a killing-- because no one in their right mind would put a large position when the market has been so weak for so long-- but at least-- one should not lose Amos Shamefully , I mentioned it in passing a while back-- that similar model occured in the dollar-- but I REFUSED TO CONSIDER IT!!! Amos Refusing to consider obvious model-- can have one of two results Amos If you have treat conviction in a trend-- then you ignore ALL ATTEMPTS trading the OPPOSTIE SIDE Amos or Amos If you stick by the model-- and it points in the direction OPPOSTIE OF THE TREND you belive it-- THEN DO IT-- AND GET READY TO JOIN THE TREND IMMEDIATELY WHEN IT RESUMES Amos again this sounds rather simple-- BUT IT REQUIRES A DEGREE OF OPPENNES OF THE MIND-- that very few of us POSSESS Amos again and agian-- TRADING is NEVER AGAINST THE MARKET-- it is ALWAYS against your INDIVIDUAL WEAKNESSES Amos Next chart is the euro qurterly which amplifies on the same subject. ALAS -- HINDSIGHT AGAIN Amos I drew two ellipses on the chart Amos on from 2005 and one today Amos Those of you that have been in that market remember the STRONG BAR AND VERY STRONG CLOSE of the last quarter of 2004-- it pointed to much higher prices Amos what happend? the market went into a WHOLE YEAR OF SEVERE CORRECTION that broke the last swing low-- Amos WHY? Amos Simple ( IN HINSIGHT)---there was not a SYSTEM THAT DID NOT GO LONG at that point-- too many JOINED THE MOVE and the market had to spend EXTRA ENERGY (finances) to WASHOUT MANY BULLS! Amos by the end of that correction-- ALMOST ALL WERE BEARISH!!! Amos and then the market started a huge ascent-- Amos Looke at the current ellipse---there were TOO MANY SHORTS AT THE BOTTOM (new low weak close---exact invers replica of 2005) and we may have to do the same thing Amos Go to the next chart and you can see that the CORRECTION of 2005 that washed out ALL THE SYSTEMS that went long---WAS PRETTY MUCH THE 50% PROJECTION OF THE FINAL TARGET!!! Amos You may laugh or scoff at that-- but it works!!!I wrote: "in the long run this vicious washou8t was pretty much the signal of 50% PROJECTION" Amos disgustin? far fetched? who cares Amos just think of the action today-- and if there is something to learn frmo the past-- it is here in front of us Amos Similar analogy may be unfolding in the NASDAQ Amos next chart is MOnthly Nasdaq Amos YOu can see that the large Jan of 2008 told the story Amos but the market had to loiter for 7 more months--- TO TIRE THE WEAK BEARS! Amos and then dropped the hammer Amos We may be in a similar situation==May of 2010 was an important signal and we may have to tire the bears-- You remember that I mentioned here that Prechter already predicted dow 1000 Amos and I said we may have to washout the ellioticiians- and who knows who else Amos So perhaps, the "DIFFICUTLY" of 2010 is indeed a very sophisticated action of the market to tire a lot lf early bears-- and we need to wait it out Amos what is the solution? Amos Monthly thrust with the readiness to be stopped once or twice Amos If the stoploss will be manageable--- we are lucky Amos if not-- not Amos The OEX already broke abor las high-- so now we can go all the way back to 550. is it a long? I cannot answer- Amos the first attempt at the THRUST AFTER WEEKLY KR failed-- must try it again! Amos this was a costly try , tho YG joined. Amos Next chart offers an interesting possibility of symmetry-- I marked a rectangle of 17 months of the drop in 2007-2009 and we are now in the 17th month of a correction of that drop Amos if, per chance this is a valid symmetry-- the August may be an important point of the chart-- from which a large move will start (8.27.1987 comes to mind as "important' juncture) Amos Not sure at all about this-- but thru it it Amos Next chart is gold Amos We had a monthly thrust after huge OKR. If this works-- we will get a very large move skylar left. Amos we are rallying now-- so the monthly chart of gold is important and the close of August will be crucial Amos nothing to say right now-- but the next few days behavior== will tell a lot Amos Last chart of tonight is crb Amos we broke above the high of the OKR and broke that model Amos So I wrote-- MODEL FAILED Amos what it means now? again this is part of the difficult phase of the market we are going thru now Amos You already hear analysis crying-- it is ALL A DOLLAR GAME---etc BrianB left. Amos I think it is part of a larger manipulation that will have GREATER IMPLICATION in years to come Amos I have a strong hunch that indeed the close of the decade-- being so tough on traders (again , I have no idea how you guys are doing in the room=-- I hope very well-- but I showed you that at least on the forex side---traders are suffering HUGE LOSSES!!!) Amos the crb is part of that game Amos I do NOT think it has anytihing to do with the dollar-- but rather with CONDITIONING MINDS OF TRADERS-- and SCARING THEM Amos at this point- I do not know what to say about the CRB-- but IDK-= NMT and that is the ONLY intelligent thing I have to say Amos The grains explode-- and so does the crb Amos Copper is rallying too-- heavens knows why-- gold is in a crucial phase Amos so this has been a tough July and probably will be a tought August Amos I think things will clarify in the next few weeks Amos HAOOK Amos open for questions Ory great lecture Amos Amos it s Amos will be in my book Brian_O left. Dmitry Amos, what is the average duration of the bull market (in the stock market)? Ory when is that due out Amos Amos Dmitry-- we have 110 years history and we just experienced 25 years of bull market from 1066 to 14400--since markets tend to be in tradng range for about 80% of the time-- we may experience 80 years of Large ranges from now on Randy -Dmity do you believe we are in a bull market? Dmitry Yes. long-term. Beacuse uptrend 1,5 years and upside was more than 50% Dmitry sinsce MAr 2008. Amos you are talking rallies and reactions and not BULL MARKET, Dmitry Randy I guess I feel this is a correction in a long lasting bear or at best a sideways trading range but we will see. warren Amos, I don't understand why you say the model failed -- there was okr in Jan and now looks like thrust Amos warren, it got my stop loss-- that means it fails-- and i have to re-enter Dmitry I says it from a stand point of weekly charts. (from montly we are in TR) schlepp2 left. Amos Yes, Dmitry-- you are right that way-- no problem yoohoo Thank you Amos for the great insight Ory and your book Amos warren ok -- understand -- thanks Amos inisight , shminsight-- the important thing-- is to PERSEVERE Dmitry thank you Amos. Interesting Dmitry Very! Randy thanks amos- thought provoking again yoohoo lol, it is preserved in my head now abc163 thx amos Amos folks- this is a VERY TOUGH MARKET-- the best are being killed right not-- so cheer up! Ory always am yoohoo amos, what do you think about wheat making a blow off top soon? Dmitry Probably the safer place in a smaller time-frame. Dmitry for now Amos the only bright spot in all of this is that anyone who still do not believe in a CM that manipuloates markets-- BETTER WAKE UP! Amos yoohoo--wheat can do whatever it wants-- I was standing in the balcony when wheat did 2 dollars up and 2 dollars down in 30 minutes!!! Randy that sparks a question from me- who do you view as the CM? investment banks or who? Amos Randy-- a MOST SINISTER AND BAD QUESTION Randy I am famous for bad questions! lol Gary_Fullett lol Amos anytime you want to KNOW THE IDENTITY of the CM-- you LOST THE GAME-- it is like wanting to MEET GOD personally-- stupid and futile effort-- best you can do is detect his footprints in the SNOW Dmitry :) Ory book please Randy it has to be an organized force of some sort with lots of money and power, investment bankers are the first that come to mind Amos Randy-- THE CM is a CONCEPT , NOT A DEFINED HUMAN FIGURE--it is the FORCE THAT KNOWS BETTER THAN WE DO. PERIOD Randy I have always wanted to know more and think about those types of things. Obviously we will never know- just wanted your suspicions hokah left. Amos btw-- watch the Euro BP spread ( I forgot to show it tonight) it is on the CASP and if it makes newer lows-- big moves will ensue Amos Randy, the essence of knowledge is to know how little you know Randy I know very little which is why I am here 5 nights a week. Randy and every day Ory big moves relative to Amos Good place to be, Mr GOODBAR Amos Ory- relative to recent ones (not in wheat , of course) Ory thanks Amos Randy and I realize more every day how little i know Amos ok folks-- go to bed, sleep well and do good homework Ory and your book Amos see you next week Amos my book will take many months to finish, Ory Amos gn Amos left. Ory ty Amos Dmitry good night Dmitry left. PiggyBack left. Gary_Fullett any q? Gary_Fullett great talk tonight? warren left. abc163 Gary, in China's stock market, it is not allowed to sell short, and there is no selling climax. How do you explain this behavior? Randy yes very good. I did some research tonight through the archives regarding springs as I questioned you and Swetz about today. I learned alot. Gary_Fullett great ask randy Gary_Fullett we can answer it all Gary_Fullett steve learned dme wyckoff form me and the smeianrs i did with david weis Gary_Fullett u can sell short Gary_Fullett but not the public right? Randy no additional questions on it now. the archives helped alot on when to sell a spring or UT abc163 not the public, i'm not sure the institute abc163 and the people here like to say: if the volume is lowest then it is the bottom. Dan randy it depend son yoru niche as well abc163 grond low abc163 ground low Gary_Fullett right randy Gary_Fullett if peole buy stocks Randy rather buy a spring and sell an UT Gary_Fullett some must sell it to them Gary_Fullett rather and TREND IS KEY Gary_Fullett go with TREND!!!!! abc163 i don't know, but there is no selling climax abc163 volum does increase when price rallies Gary_Fullett i am not sure on thier markets Gary_Fullett but the cm sells shorts im sure abc163 it is said they can in some other way Gary_Fullett i will look into it abc163 it looks like the public sell all the down way and close to the bottom. greensnap joined. abc163 and the volume at top is high mark left. greensnap left. Gary_Fullett interesting Gary_Fullett manipulation wyatt gn good people wyatt left. Ory left. Gary_Fullett where in china are u abc? abc163 right now i am in Guangzhou,the city with the white swan Hotel abc163 the hotel you stayed Gary_Fullett right i remember :) Gary_Fullett lovely place abc163 too many people abc163 and noisy Gary_Fullett anfd alot of poloution abc163 ye, that's i hate it. Song left. Song joined. abc163 gn gary abc163 left. Gary_Fullett good night all ty Gary_Fullett left.