Amos joined. Amos Hi Amos Happy Bastille day KevinA Hi Amos joe_s hi amos Anna joined. Ory Hi Amos,,,H Bastille Day Ory what holiday is this. here it is french warren joined. Ory la festival bastillle ah-Tex joined. Amos Another night in which one should NOT talk because there is nothing to talk about-- but we are the talking animals Amos The amount of garbage that fills the air is increasing , Example is a post on Market Forum from a guy that "talked to 20 traders" and they all think that: Amos comming devaluation of the U.S dollar mst - Wednesday at 8:47 AM talking to a 20 currency trader recently , he expects a sudden 30 % + devalue of the greenback between now and sometime in 2011 . Thoughts ? mst. Gary_Fullett joined. Amos when you get such bombastic statments (similar to the one I quoted last time from Bob Prechter about the imminent collapse of the dow by 90%-- you really know that these are the dogs day of summer and since most markets are on a prolonged hinge--- the only thing you can do Ory just listening Amos is Amos TALKS Gary_Fullett Bastille day and my b day amos Amos It does not cost money to talk-- and who knows perhaps something will happen Amos Gary-- HAPPY Birthday-- lets hope you climbed a few baricades today Gary_Fullett walk not climb lol Amos So since there is not much to talk about-- I will try so amplify on this and show how markets can be really quiet, confusing, hingy, and non synnergistic Mr_Steve joined. gfs joined. Amos BTW-- this is the time where technical analysis-- becomes garbage. I have talked about it in the past-- and usually raised some ire in the crowd (we all love our pets even if they poop on the carpet)--but such criticism is not negative, necessarily--but realistic --and to know what NOT TO DO -- is many times MORE IMPORTANT than to know what TO DO in the market place Amos Chart one is copper daily rich joined. Amos YOu can see that this market has done nothing in the last 2 months-- we are tradin between 280 and 320. Also you can see that the sharp 5 days deline from 320 to 272 is followed by over 21 days of meandering inside that drop-- many markets are doing same Amos WHY? MIKEYG joined. Amos The only sane answer is that right now there is NO distincet change in the picture of supply and demand and smart money is on vacation-- not doing anything, or saying NMT! mark joined. Amos However many times such sideway motions do obey important indicators (usually the higher time frames) especially when they are part of larger trends Amos Since copper has declared itself (in my book, at least) as a major bear-- then the down sloping larger MAs--- should come into play Amos You can see that we are approaching the 55 daily ma-- and manhy times-- this is when some moves start Amos Since I am sitting on my hands and waiting-- usually -- the bored (yet inquiring ) mind-- always looks for some "other insights"-- usually garbage-- but at least some intellectual exercise. Amos If, per chance this is a huge head and shoulder-- then the distance from the "left shoulder" to the "head" is marked with one rectangle-- and the same distance-- for symmetry is market by a rectangle at the bottome-- that time span (chart was printed friday as you can see at the bottom)---comes in today-- So I wrote Bastille day for copper, SHould have written GF day for copper yoohoo left. Amos this kind or work-- can be rewarding from time to time-- can also be very frustrating from time to time--- but I consider it a CONSTANT HOMEWORK-- that DOES NOT have to materializae-- but DOES KEEP me abreast of POTENTIAL POINTS Amos the concept of CONSTANT and TEDIOUS homework in the market place cannot be overemphasized-- even if, from time to time-- it spits in your face, makes you feel very fooolish and frustrated-- It is important and as long as you do not FORCE your homework on the market-- but always use the IF- THEN PARADIGM-- then the chance that you will miss an important action -- is small Amos At any rate- if this is correct -- then a large decline should start from here-- we shall see Amos Next chart is earlier today-- and you can see that we have come as close to the 55 ma as possible-- and many times this is the point of the "squaring of time and space" from Gann-- and the end of a sideways motion is ending Amos It is important to notice , again, that the market is not going anywhere for quite a long time-- And as long as this goes on-- this "HINGE" can last and last. Amos This is one small example how markets spend MOST OF THEIR TIME IN RANGES!!! -- I call it 85% of the time-- no proof to that-- but I use it to remind myself that most of the time --- there is NO DISASTER, most of the time there is NO DRASTIC CHANGE in the picture of demand and supply-- and this is life Amos THe dollar is doing a fine shtick Ory copper combined Amos MIKEYG BALTIC HAS BEEN GOING DOWN 32 STRAIGHT DAYS NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR COPPER DEMAND AT ALL Amos THe washout continues-- I showed above how you start seeing some crazy posts (mst on Marketforum ) predicting 30% decline in the dollar.... Amos BALTIC DRY INDEX, MikeG--is one of the BEST "LEADING " indicators around--- it is kind of a Secret-- and I am glad you guys are aware of it Ory closed at 0.4 today Art joined. Amos I mentioned it a while ago-- and at one time I told the story of another hidden index-- the Index of Barges on the Mississipi river-- that made an abrupt jump one quiet summer afternoon many years ago-- when some secret agent rented ALL THE BARGES in one bid! Amos that was the famous RUSSIAN DROUT of the 80's last century--- fascinating story Amos or the pink sheet of the hog traders that is kept very close to chest by professional traders Amos There are a few indicators that are better than others-- but for most mortals-- we have to do with price MIKEYG people try to say"well the reason it is crashing is because there are alot more ships that there use to be thus pulling down the rates" I say hogwash ---all CM manapulation imho Amos At any rate-- I don't think that copper must follow the BDI-- after all there can be some strikes in south american that will create artificial shortages-- even if world is in recession. No matter-- Amos I marked a potential 50% projection point on the chart skylar joined. Amos you can see that the 8630 has been a rock , bone, of contention last few days--so I think it may be an important "MARKING" point. Since this is part of my homework-- I do it all the time-- I extend that distance and consider it as potential "PRICE TARGET" Amos you can see that we have reached it last friday and I tell myself that this is a crucial point Amos What happens? the market has a small rally-- but since so many people are trying to guess bottom-- it is very easy for the market to WASH THEM OUT-- this is always a possibility-- and if you do not take it into account--- you can get scorched many times Amos This, by the way, is the MAIN REASN why-- from a point of view of MONEY MGMT-- the pros will tell you that YOU SHOULD NOT bet TOO heavily at turning points-- Warren Buffet can do it-- but normal mortals should Start small and ONLY ADD AFTER their initial position is showing profits--- Jesses Livermore talks a lot about it! Amos Next chart show that we had a nice washout-- and I circled that portion on the P^F chart that extended beyond the target Amos Of course-- the whole projetion to 8370 can be WRONG and I may be wrong on the whole direction and that guy from MF may be right after talking to "20 trraders"---but since this is my home work-- and we shall see in the next chart another important point-- then at this point-- I am wondering if this is an important shakeout. Amos IF IT IS (IF--THEN!!) -- then the next rally should be strong-- simply because enough weak longs have been scared out of the market Amos Many times-- when markets go into either summer dolldrums- or prlonged hinges-- trading ragnes---such washtout are very easy to engineer and the CM, as MikeG pointed out correctly above-- is toying with us Amos Next chart is the weekly dollar-- and we are smack into the 21 weekly MA-- 9 times out of 10 (perhaps only 8 or 7-- but majority)--market will react. So if the 21 MA holds-- and the last decline was an importnat washout-- then rally should ensue Amos This is a good example how ones adherence to specific time frame-- can be rather costly at times Amos I am so impressed by the semi annual-- and so convinced that we must hit at least a nominal higher high--- that such a deep correction (which in the long term would mean nothing if I am right) can be rather costly Amos BTW-- on the weekly chart there is a clear THRUST AFTER WEEKLY KR-- that I chose to IGNORE COMPLETELY--- you can holler-- HEY, AMOS-- what kind of garbage is this? how come you are not following your own best indicators? Amos This is a great point rich left. Amos Again-- if you choose to operate on a specific time frame-- the larger one-- you can get hit once in a while-- this is part and parcel of trading-- and you must accept this Amos OTOH-- if I am true to my grain-- then As long as the weekly chart is making LOWER HIGHS-- I have NO RIGHT TO BE LONG the dollar--- I tried 3 times ont he smaller time frames and lost two of them. Such is life-- it is NOT easy to trade ONLY the weekly charts--Not trying to fake it-- just telling the truth Amos But as long as I am consistent--- the bottom line is POSITIVE-- and that is what counts-- that is Why I do not mind showing points where I lose Amos Next two charts are not so important-- but I want to make a point Amos I show the 55 bars on the 4 hour chart on the euro futures-- and I market it as potential turning point --again this is friday morning Amos Next chart is tuesday morning and you can see that the 55 bars-- had an affect Amos Now the market drops into the 55 MA of the 4 hour chart-- and IS HOLDING Amos Right here on the chart-- you can see the dillema of a short term trader--- I have some profit off the 55 bar count and the thust,. market is holding and I have to decide what to do Amos One thing that I found out is HELPFUL (many forex traders do this) -- is just GIVE IN-- STEP ASIDE Amos Best thing to tell yourself is this: IF the market wants to go lower-- WAIT FOR A LOWER LOW! if it wants to respect the MA-- then LET IT GO (I CANNOT GO LONG THE EURO becausse it MUST TEST THE 119 at least one more time because of the WEAK SEMI ANNUAL CHART!!!-- I am hampered now-- since I CANNOT GO LONG!-- Amos this is MY WEAKNESS-- every one with their problems-- but I cannot trade the EURO FROM THE LONG SIDE, not until it makes a nominal lower low on the large time frame-- that is ME-- and YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS FOR GRANTED!!! Amos those who can trade against the major trend-- as long as they scalp with careful stops-- THAT IS FINE!!! Amos Next chart is the jump today-- same as the washout in the dollar- and I circled it-- as an important point to test!!! Amos The whole rally in the euro (decline in the dollar) is , at this point nothing but a NORMAL correction of a VERY OVERSOLD SITUATION---but that is NOT a BOTTOM! Amos At the same time-- since the market is BIDING FOR TIME-- anyone who tries to guess a turning point-- is liable to get hurt. Mr._November left. Amos This is the point where I find Techincal analysis almost useless-- MAINLY BECAUSE if your mind is SET UPON A PARTICULAR TIME FRAME-- YOUR MIND WILL SIMPLY IGNORE the opposite side signals-- and it is USELESS!! Amos This is a very important point-- it is philosophical and has a lot to do with LONG TERM PROFITABILITY CURVE of a trader--- There is NO ONE ANSWER--here is where YOUR SOUL and your stocmach are much more important thant the LINES on the chart-- hopefully if we get into seminal mode--- I would love to devote some time to that issue-- because-- it is a major impediment for many traders-- and most people are not even aware of it (or , wrose, choose to ignore it). Very importnat point Amos Next chart is crude Amos I circled the last 2 months with an ellipse Amos I market the 55th day from the top. Amos You can "see" that we are having a FLAG where the POLE is the drop from 90 to 68 and the flag itself is the range between 68 and 80 Amos More than anything-- the picture of crude is the REAL PICTURE of most markets right now--One might say that with the BDI droping hard-- crude and copper and other industrial stuff should have followed-- well-- if there is any modicum of vailidity to the "LEADINGNESS" of the BDI-- then they should NOT act simultaneously-- but ONE SHOULD "LEAD" the other Amos At any rate-- you can see that LARGE HINGES--- can be very tasing-- from the opoint of view of the PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER Amos THE LONGER THE HINGE-- the LESS CONFIDENT YOU BECOME!!! Amos This is PREciSELY THE PURPOSE OF HINGES-- they are supposed to CONFUSE and BEWILDER LARGEST AMOUNT OF TRADERS Amos If you are NOT AWARE OF THIS-- you will fall into the trap Amos There is , or ARE , good reasons why MANY GOOD TRADERS TAKE OFF during the summer-- TO PRESERVE THEIR SANITY- to BE IN THE MARKET-- or IN FRONT OF THE COMPUTER during a period of NOTHINGNESS-- is DESTRUCTIVE--that is why I opened tonight wtih the sentence: "THIS IS ANOTHER EVENING NOT TO TALK" Amos Next chart is the CRB MONTHLY Amos I am trying to make sense of the last 6 months narrow range--and I try Taylor Amos IF the reversal of JANUARY is a SS day--3 Amos then I count 123, 123 and we are now in JULY which should be another SS month Amos I should have said JANUARY IS A SS MONTH , not day, sorry Amos notice that the last SS month was SOT month-- but the next decline, even tho I took out the last low--- stopped-- MARKET IS IN NO HURRY, or perhaps too many shorts Amos Will be interesting to see if the 55 day will act--- watch it Amos Next chart is the Mini dow Amos Again an example of market with "INFINITE" patience' Markets makes 4 lower lows-- and each time-- rallies Amos Now we are at the 55 ma (printed Tuesday globex) Amos Last time reaction off the 55 MA was sharp (we have to be careful with such a statement because the MA is a dynamic indicator== and it is possible that the picgture looked DIFFERENTLY then!!!---at any rate-- right now it seems that the last time we hit that 55 MA there was large amount of supply Mr_Steve . Amos will it happen again? ONLY WAY TO KNOW is if we MAKE LOWER DAILY LOW!!!! no use guessing!! Amos So today we penetrated that 55 ma. It may still work-- and this may only be an "UPTHRUST" of the MA (funny to use such terminology-- but as WYckoffians-- you will understand) Amos So I try the channel??? who knows--- again an example how TA is ALMOST USELESS when you are in such a wide RANGE!!!!but the market is still making HIGHER LOWS!! that is important Amos Next chart sums it all up Amos it is back to my battle with the dollar Amos If you look at the larger time frame-- that OKR is ONE HELL OF A SIGNAL Amos look to your left--the LAST QUARTER OF 2004--- it was an IMPORTANT OKR!! Amos What happened after it? The market stayed ONE FULL YEAR INSIDE A NARROW RANGE before it started to move-- BUT THE DIE HAD BEEN CAST BY THAT OKR!!!! Amos This is why on one hand the LARGE TIME FRAMES ARE THE LARGE VERDICT OF THE MARKET-- but THEY CAN KILL YOU IF YOU LOSE YOUR PATIENCE Amos Same here--we had a VERDICT (which, if you ask me, is VERIFIED byt that FAMOUS BDI)--but until the actual decline starts in earnest -- we can MEANDER in small (and ANNOYING) ranges for quite sometime!!! Amos Such is life-- the picture of the Dow is same of the DOllar, same of the curde, same of the CRB!!!! We are now BIDING FOR TIME--tough period Amos Next is the OEX Amos I marked the space between 300 and 511 as important Amos 511 should NOT be taken out-- if the BEAR TREND is intact Amos If it does-- Then, I write on the chart-- PICTURE WILL BE CONVOLUTED roger joined. Amos But we can spend a long time between 400 and 511-- One must be MENTALLY PREPARED FOR THIS!!! Amos Next four charts of stocks -- that add to the confusion-- you can see thru them that the individual compoentned of the Dow or the DJT-- SIMPLY CREATE PART OF THAT CONFUSION Amos first is AAPL Amos Lasst quarter was the largets in its history but closed far from the top-- it is a signal that AAPL needs more work around here Amos strangely enough we start hearing some bad recalls of the Iphone-4 model--perhapse like all conglomerates-- even AAPL is being mesmerised by its own glory and start relaxing high standards (like toyota and BP) Amos But the chart is INCONCLUSIVE-- the trend is up-- but last quarter may have seen some supply at the to Amos and AAPL is the bellwhether of the market-- it should be the stronget-- but if it turns-- then the rest will follow Amos Next 3 charts are really interesing --these are the THREE HEAVIEST COMPONENTS OF THE DOW TRANSPORT-- UNP is about 105 Amos 10%, Burlingoton is 12% and CHRW is about 8-- together theey are about 1/4 of the Transport, weightwise Amos UNP shows a reversal and once we have a thrust after that reversal-- we go down Amos Currntly we are in the MIDDLE of the LAST LARGE OKR-- so HINGE Amos Burlington closed last quarter AT THE TOP and is making at least NOMINAL HIGHER HIGH-- here the picture is still STRONG!!!! . joined. Amos CHRW-- has been trading water not for a whole year-- HINGE GALORE Amos So you can see that if you look at three MAJOR STOCKS OF THE DOW TRANSPORT (AND I MUST EMPHASIZE, as I have done in the past== YOU SHOULD NEVER!!!! INFER from the MICRO TO THE MACRO-- never DECIDE THAT A STOCK has more predictive power thant the INDEX--even tho we are taling bout bellwehteres) Amos yet, if you look at those 3 major stocks-- you can see that each one of them behaves somehat differently Amos what does it mean? KevinA left. Amos NO SYNNERGY-- no synnergy -- means CONFUSION-- means NEED MORE TIME-- means the picture is not so clear---and that is where most markets are at the momnet Mr_Steve left. ah-Tex left. Amos and if you read some other forms-- you can sense a lot of FRUSTRATION on parts of participants--that is exactly what happens when markets trades sideways for a long time--Grandiose predictions, lots of bombastic statements-- while the good traders SHUT UP or choose to be on some Pacific island Amos Next chart is the INDEX ITSELF Amos you can see that we had a major KR and we immediately made a LOWER LOW (MINIMUM CONFIRMATION OF A SIGNAL-- immediate continuation) Amos and now we are testing upper boundaries Amos How far can we go? IDK Amos BUt the THRUST AFTER KR-- may occur one or two quareters later!!! THINK ABOUT IT Amos Last chart is the Euro dollar Amos AGAIN even here we haf a large weekly hinge- we are trading now 10 weeks INSIDE that large drop, Amos THE 21 MA crossed the 55 MA-- which is a warning sign Amos Are we going to force the FED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES???? how can that be? Amos If we are going into recession-- why raise rates? Amos Again-- a very confusing situation-- this is part of the life a trader-- there will always be periods of great confusion-- ub the picture in the ED is NOT bullish at the moment-- and I have not explanation as of why Amos At the same time-- if thie is only first reaction and we are going to test the high one more time-- then we must come out of this HINGE to the upside-- again an important chart-- that merits close monitoring Amos HAOOK Amos I am done-- open for questions Dan riveting Dan fantastic Amos keep going-- I need adulations Ory Amos excellent TY roger left. warren not bad for Bastilla Day Gary_Fullett its his french side Tommy ty Amos, we appreciate your mkt analysis Tommy left. Amos I prefer questions upon complimets skylar thanks Amos skylar left. Amos think of such periods of confusion in the market as a normal slump of even the best players Amos MJ used to go into slumps Anna Thank you Amos ! I was Hoping for a Massive UT on the mini Dow for us to work with. Ory Amos where did you find out the bdi was so powerfull Amos Baseball players have famous slumps Amos Tiger woods have slumps ( of two kinds) Dan anna just watch th tape Amos Ory-- the BDI Declied sharply end of 2007-- I was shocked to find out how clever that index was Ory Thanks Amos Amos must admit was not aware of it until the 2008 crush yoohoo joined. Amos you live and learn Amos Main thing right now is to patiently wait for market verdict-- haste is costly now Gary_Fullett anna u may see it but above 1102 area Ory Amos the bdi must be long term as compared to an MA Amos not sure what you mean , ory-- what is the connection between an index and a momentum indicator? Ory welll bdi shows long term direction and ma goes to a stock for short term hawk left. Ory or am i confusing myself Amos yes you are Ory o.k. thanks Sorry Amos ok folks-- stay in the shade and drink lots of water, see you next week Amos left. warren left. Gary_Fullett good amos Gary_Fullett any q for me? Ory i figured out my delima Ory with the bdi Art left. Gary_Fullett night all tty Gary_Fullett left.