Amos joined. Amos Hi KevinA Hi Amos Alex Hi, all Anna Amos! Ory Hi Amos Dan ge Frank hi . left. . joined. lzzy greetings Amos This is turning to be a rather dangerous corner-- Middle of the year-- and the going AIN'T easy. Gary_Fullett joined. Amos The most dangerous aspect of such a "corner" is the temptation to make grandiose (and even ordinary) PREDICTIONS-- which is a bane Amos See Prechter coming up with his "usual" doom's day article. Even tho he mentioned similar figures to the ones I brought up last time from the very large Point and Figure chart-- he declares that it is cerainty and rather fast-- while I suggested POTENTIAL energy and who knows how many years before we get there Amos At any rate--- this is going to be a tough period because too many traders will lose their patience and the market will have to shake them off. Again, this is my opinion-- so take it with grain of salt Amos First chart tonight tires to explain why we are having this correction in the dollar-- and I think I am hitting upon the real reason Amos It is the monthly chart from last Saturday-- and I circled the reason Amos YOu can see that on the monthly chart-- we got a major crossing of both= the 5 AND the 21 over the 55 MAs themick joined. Alvin joined. Amos more over-- the 5 is making its SECOND crossing of the 21-- which, if you remember my second and third crossing major signals lecture ( many moons ago) the SECOND CRROSSING is a VERY IMORTANT WARNING SIGN and the THird crossing is the KISS OF DEATH-- especially on the large time frames roger joined. Amos Here is a real life exercise in front of us-- that will allow us to learn this trick on our flesh and blood-- and see-- how something that in HINDSIGHT seems so clear and easy-- can be extremely DIFFICULT and costly-- on line lb joined. Amos Sometimes a second crossing IS a major signal and sometimes-- when the market has PLENTY OF TIME and too many traders (systems, robots, funds, you name it) take the signal and it is TOO CLOSE to the INCEPTION of the move-- the market will generate a MAJOR SHAKE OUT that will scare most of the SYSTEMS tradrers-- to be much more timid next time Amos I have a storng hunch that the latter is the case before us Amos Time will tell Amos At any rate-- assuming I am right about this-- the big question is-- AT WHAT POINT do the systems that JUMPED on that SECOND CROSSING-- bail out? Amos This is an enigma-- and I have no clue Amos Since we have a monthly thrust--- the ONLY SAFE answer is: YOu will know it when the MONTHLY CHART either makes a MONTHLY THRUST to the upside-- OR, and that is even a tougher choice-- when the market takes out last high-- the high of June! Amos This is very difficult-- especially if you have strong conviction in your identification of the trend-- and that is the type of action that usually separates the MEN from the boys. Amos So I started to guess a continuation point-- on the 60 minutes, then I retracted to the 4 hours then to the daily-- and now I am regressing to the monthly time frame-- to justify my view of the market Amos How do you trade this? Amos Welll--- if you want to be a long time frame trader--- you have to be able to withstand such difficult corners-- and just be patient. I have no other solution. Amos I repeat the example of Buffet taking an 85% drawdown hit on his fund during the 1987 crush. But this is such a rare example-- that to apply it to mere normals is almost sarcastic Amos You can even berrate me further and say-- why fight the small term trend-- as long as we had a mothly thrust to the down side (even tho there is NO ENDING ACTION at the 88 level in the dollar)--WHY FIGHT IT? why not play also the short side-- and join the long side-- again AFTER ALL THOSE MA CROSSING SYSTEMS get FULLY WASHED OUT? Amos This is an excellent question-- and again-- it has NOTHING to do with the market-- ONLY WITH THE PILOT-TRADER's frame of mind Amos Some don't mind to spend several weeks trading the counter trend-- even in large trends-- and them JOING merrily the major trend-- but the truth is that MOST PEOPLE LOSE THEIR CONVICTION if they trade both ways Amos it is almost a VERDICT or an IMPOSITION of trading that -- ini order to trade -- BOTH WAYS-- you must REDUCE your level of conviction and adherance to ONE SIDE Amos not an easy point/ Amos So I realise that this point in the dollar-- even if--= years from now it will seem to be a blip-- much like the 1987 looks ridiculous on the yearly chart-- how can any one call a small 1000 points reaction on the way to 14000 point rally-- a CRUSH?!-- but at the time it seemed that the skies are falling. Amos This is a major issue in trading. I hope some of you learn from this-- it is a real life examply how the wild interaction of different time frames-- can create havoc-- and if you are not careful ( I had been twice in the last few weeks)--it can be costly. Amos Next medium filter on the DXC from saturday and again-- an example how your (MY) bias can AFFECT your counting Amos The count I marked is the 13 at the 8625 level and it gives a cause to the 8425 level Amos Seems reasonable and I look now for accumulation cause Amos The next chart is from today-- and at this point-- those of you who watch globex-- would see that we have just came up in the EURO to 12673-- on the futures side -- where the LAST HIGH BEFORE LOW was 126.82 and on the FOREX SIDE that point is 126.72--and at this point as I am typing the high was 126.69. If this happens to be a high point for the rally --it will be amazing! and pure luck Amos However you can see on that 50 x 3 point and figure chart-- that if i include the last weak rally in that CLEAN COUNT AREA-- I get now cause of 15! and this one calls for a cause to the 8370 level Alex left. Amos This is the trials and tribulation of trading a tool that you trust-- and having to cope with YOUR OWN BIAS-- that lures you to count LESS if your bias is to the other side Amos There is NO ESCAPING this problem-- we are mere humans-- and even when you use the best of tools-- many times-- your imptience leads you to "READ" the chart-- with a grain of wishful thinking-- this is reality and learning to cope with this is part of becoming a better trader Amos In the long run-- as has been said many times here- it is NEVER THE MARKET that we are fighting with-- but OUR INTERNAL DEMONS! Amos Next chart is the daily dollar-- and here I give an example -- how my wishful thinking-- can even color (bias!) my Wyckoff reading of a certain action Alex joined. Amos Since I am convinced that the correction in the dollar is just that-- I am looking for an ending actilon Amos This is real life, folks-- I am not doing this for you-- this is HOW I INTERPRET THE MARKET-- and HOW I ORGANIZE MY THINKING Amos so I am LOOKING for the USUAL sequence-- PLS-- weak rally, SC, AR and ST Amos so you can see how I marked the first kr )that had a thrust after it-- which I bought and was stopped out) Amos as PLS.... the decline since the first of July ad sort of SC-- and I AM LOOKING FOR AN AR! Amos this is how I ust WYCKOFF-- for "PREDICTION" purposes-- after all-- if the sequnece has any merit== then is should follow that particular sequence Amos Here is an examply how this is can be rather difficult in real life Amos The only grace in this approach is that I am NOT DECIDING that it was a SC-- I am waiting for the AR Amos in Wyckoff-- if you are a true believer-- a certain market phenomenon is NOT DEFINED BY THE ACTION ITSELF-- but rather by WHAT COMES AFTER IT--- you never know that a certain action is a SELLING CLIMAX-- UNLESS YOU SEE AN AR coming after it--- most of us tend to think that we are ABLE to determine a WYCKOFF phenomenon- WHILE IT IS HAPPENING Amos In reality-- this happens quite often-- ESPECIALLY if the SELLING CLIMAX occurs after a very severe decline and you happen to KNOW FOR SURE that the volume is huge-- that means you are WITNESSING A MAJOR CAPITULATION Amos but it is always good to remember the TRUE STORY of John Stafford-- perhaps the biggest market maker at the CBOE a few years back (he rented the whole 39 the floow (or was it the 31st floow-- the top floor at any rate) of the building Amos He we long many puts bought at 1/4 during the 1987 crush and hew was gonig to the floor several times a day cruint the October 19th crush-- and he did not cover till the lowest point Amos when asked how did you know to cover-- he said he was looking for the WHITE IN THEIR EYES--- he was looking for DEAD PANIC Amos but in those 1000 plust points avalanche-- there were quite a few PANIC MOMENTS Amos it is not so easy and there are not too many John Staffords themick left. rich joined. Amos So you can that I am "dictating" a sequence on the daily chart-- but at the moment I am WAITING for confirmation of the Wyckoff sequence Amos a few charts below-- I am showing the weekly chart-- and perhaps the true answer to the situation is embedded there Amos Next chart is the gold Amos Last week it nicked the low of june and called my attention ( my alert went off) but only by a tick Amos so I mark it on my chart and ask myself-- Is this a realy thrust? Amos Sometimes-- especially when you are fighting a strong trend-- it is better to wait for second and third signals Amos So I write on the chart-- potential MONTHLY THRUST ADTER OKR (December last year) --and the next time we make a lower low-- will be significant Amos The next chart from early today shows that we did indeed make a lower low themick joined. Amos Also you can see I market a rectangle of 27 motnhs from the high of 2008 to the high of 2010 hokah joined. Amos I have mentioned here in passing that over the years I noticed that 27 is an important number in the market Amos I have no proof-- and you take it with a large spoon of salt-- but when I did some past studies of my major flops in the market-- I found an amazing repetition of this number-- and I have noticed Amos that when ever I have been TOO EARLY in my action in the market (that turned out to be RIGHT BUT EARLY) I have rarely been early by more than 27 bars-- be it days, weeks or months Amos I do not know if that has any validity-- perhaps it is just half a year-- and it simply brings up the action on the SEMI ANNUAL chart-- don't know Amos At any rate-- I learned to respect the 27 count. so I just market it Amos At any rate-- we DO HAVE a THRUST AFTER OKR on the Gold chart-- pay attention Janet joined. pll left. Amos Next chart is the daily gold-- and here too you have a DAILY OKR followed by a thrust which was followed by sort of SOW-- this is dangerous-- because the trend is still up-- and to forct BEARISH WYCKOFF TERMS on a BULLISH CHART-- can lead to disaster--- so one must be very quiet about such declerations-- BUT--- this is coupled with a MONTHLY THRUST AFTER MONTHLY OKR-- so we may have some major message here Amos Next chart is point and figure of the Euro-- 20 x 3 Amos this is a new version of CQG and I have not studies yet how to manipulate their new structure--this is one of their changes in this revision-- at least the gird makes it easier to count-- but it also obfuscates the chart itself--- I will learn to use it better Amos you can see a clean count to 126 Amos the question is, of course whether any of the sideways action between 124 and 122 is also an important cause?! You tell me Amos Next two charts, I think are important- first is the weekly euro Amos I have market with the rectangle the 34 weeks from the top. This tends to be an important point in long term trends and here too-- you can see NO ENDING ACTION on the bottom-- the SEMI ANNUAL CHART DICTATES AT LEAST A NOMINAL lower low between July and DEc-- and the only question is HOW FAR WILL THIS RALLY GO---so the down sloping 21 MA may be an important resitance Amos You can see that this is crossing right now at the 130 level Amos There is a trendling that I have not drawn that cuts lower than that and perhapse this will be respected Amos HOwever-- this is, As I described in the beginning-- a tough corner Amos ONe thing for sure-- the large time frames are still very bearish Amos Next chart is the inverse of the euro-- the dollar weekly Amos You can clearly see the GAP at the 8750 level-- and I said last time that on a minimum level-- we WILL close that gap Amos however, since we are now washing out longs (the monthoy ma crossing crowd at least)00 it makes sense that the next support will be the weekly 21 ma Amos this one comes int righ now at the 8300 lelel. Amos The Point and figure count a few charts up-- of the cause of 15 calls for a deline intl the 8370 Amos the 21 MA is around 83--- so you have two targets-- that should play important roll in the next few days/weeks Amos notice how the market is keeping LOWER HIGHS on the weekly chart-- so far------ imortant thing to watch!!! Amos Next chart is important-- the OEX weekly Amos I circled the LLBH-- this is a concept I coppied from a good trader-- and once in a while it has tremendous value Amos Last low before high- many times is the PLS! Amos once you break it-- you change the trend! Ory ? llbh Amos Amos you can see that on the first deline (May 6 quirk) the market was very careful NOT TO BREAK IT Amos Ory--2 lines above you is the anser- LAST LOW BEFORE HIGH (that is ULTIMATE HIGH) Amos answer Amos so the market was very careful NOT to break that LLBH-- but 2 weeks later DID Amos that was an important signal Amos the rally after that point is circled by the smaller red one Amos and I write: MOST CRITICAL HIGH FROM NOW ON Ory TY Amos Amos because If indeed we have turned the trend around---- then--The most crucial aspect is that as LONG AS WE MAKE SUCCESSIVE SWINGS LOWER HIGHS-- the trend is DOWN Amos therefore-- that high is now crucial and it is around 512-513---so that should be an important guiding light of market action in the month of July-- and perhapse into August Amos Last chart is again a prediction (it scares me and that is why I decided to make this a little shorter-- because , as I said at the opening-- when the market becosme volatile and when LARGE TIME FRAMES are being determined--- the tendency to MAKE PREDICTION is the BANE OF A TRADER. so this is the time for the wise ones to be silent (very famous saying in the bible "VEHAMASKIL BAET HAHI YIDOM"-- I have to find it in the enlish version Amos WOW-- I just did a quick search on the other computer-- and it is AMOS 5-14!!! look it up on google...this is funny, Amos was one of the HARSHEST PROPHETS in the bible-- he DID NOT MINCE words-- even if his book is rather short-- somteing like 9 chapters Amos At any rate-- there is an interesting point on that sxc weekly chart Amos If indeed we are in a bear move-- more often than not-- the FIRST IMPORTANT MOVE is a ROAD MARK Amos so if you extend the distance from the high to the bottom of the May 6th drop-- you get a target of 412.3 on the sxc. hawk joined. Amos You can say-- big deal-- if we are going to test the 2009 lows-- OF COURSE we have to cross the 412 level-- this is ridiculous Amos So be it Amos just wath the chart in the comig weeks and see what happens if and when this target of the 50% projetion occurs Amos It so happens to be the last major correction in July of last year-- so you have a synnergy Amos Also pay attention to the fact that last year-- during july we had the LAST important correction in a year and a third market rally Amos is history repating itself? why not Amos so if todays' rally in the market-- is a similar action --then it is highly likely that the next lower low-- will be a beginiing of a long and tedious decline Amos Time will tell Amos HAOOOK Amos rather early today-- but I really feel I am sliding into too much predictions-- POISON-- I better SHTU UP! Amos Open for questions Amos SHUT UP not SHTU UP-- shtuing up is silly Amos 55 people in the room- Hurray for Leonardo. Randy Thanks Amos, once in -you have given us many things to look for and think about. joe_s thanks amos roger thx amos Amos you can see while I talked the EURO took out that 12682--so daily points on charts-- are now insignificant Ory Amos,excellent lecture joe_s left. Amos July is going to be rough Dmitry thanks Amos! !! Amos Yes Ory, especially since it was short-- BREVITY IS THE SOUL OF WIT Ory you are correct Amos roger left. yoohoo thanks amos, great insight Amos ok, if no questions-- I will forgo the adulations and go watch glen beck in rerun showing how the Black Panther swayed the elections Chuck Can you please tell me what is significant about the OEX instrument? Ory Goodnight Amos and TY themick left. Chuck Anything to keep anybody from watching Glenn Beck! Amos yes chuck-- it is the INDEX of the OPTIONS PEOPLE-- the best traders in the world Chuck Ok, so it might lead the market then? Amos lead, or lag-- it has been the most honest indicator since 2000 Chuck ok, but if it lags, then what use is it? Amos chuck- if you say one more time LEADING INDICATOR-- I will have to FLOG you Amos THERE IS NO SUCH THING-- one of the ugly lies of the market Chuck haha Chuck I'm just trying to understand it's significance. Amos the OEX is simply an index that is not widely observed by most traders-- but is an important DA VINCI code amongst the pros Chuck I'll study it some more. Thank you. lb left. lb joined. Ory great anology Amos clark115 joined. Amos ok folks-- enjoy the summer and stay wet Amos gn Chuck cheers Amos left. Brian_O first time here w/ you Amos, good stufff, thanks Brian_O left. Janet left. Randy left. clark115 left. Tommy left. Gary_Fullett banker hlidays Gary_Fullett any q for em? Gary_Fullett me Dmitry Gary why you say that if we enter trade on a daily chart, we should set our stop on a weekly chart? Dmitry stop loss Gary_Fullett becaue u dnt want to get jabbed out hokah left. Gary_Fullett u wnat the stp far enough away from a spring or upthrust Ory is there a norm Gary Gary_Fullett u can plaY WITH it and see what fits u Dmitry for exampe i enter trade on a price pullback. Weekly low and daily low of pullback will ba the same Gary_Fullett then make stop farenought not to get jabbe dout Ory Gary,,,,why use oex compared to spy Dmitry Gary thank you! Gary_Fullett just aN INDEX KevinA left. Ory o.k. Thanks Gary Dmitry good night all! Ory GN D Dmitry left. lb left. hawk left. Gary_Fullett night all Gary_Fullett left.