Gary_Fullett joined. Gary_Fullett good evening Danny_T is there any charts for tonight BT joined. RB I cannot access the charts, it says the link is broken Gary_Fullett the charts were late toeb possted so please retrive them they are on the site but u may have to refresh the screen joe_s good evening RB the link does not work Gary_Fullett yes. they are on the site presently BT i just got them they are there Janet They are O.K...I was just able to pull them down Gary_Fullett sorry just got back from the hospital wyatt joined. Gary_Fullett u may have to refresh BT sorry to hear gary Janet Gary, I hope your Dad is doing better. Chuck left. Alex left. Alex joined. Brian_O left. Gary_Fullett ty bt Ory here here Gary_Fullett he s doign unreal Gary_Fullett there was a clot that traveled fom his heart to the brain Gary_Fullett and tit dissolved itsef in the bran and caused sebveral other strokes Gary_Fullett but no lingering affects Ory cumadin BT great best wishes Ory that awesome Gary Gary_Fullett yes ory Gary_Fullett he was on asprin Gary_Fullett now on cumadin Gary_Fullett ty Janet That's great news....I know you are relieved Ory YW Gary Alex left. Alex joined. Brian_O joined. Gary_Fullett but he is very lucky man Gary_Fullett i decided to share some long term charts of the down in 1932 Gary_Fullett i would imagine u never saw the action back then Gary_Fullett but since Gary_Fullett some compared the ecomy to then i wanted to see any correlaion Chuck joined. roger joined. Gary_Fullett yes janet but last night i knew he was going to be fin Gary_Fullett fine Gary_Fullett so did u have time to get the charts joe_s y Ory y Anna yep option y Gary_Fullett great did u have any q Gary_Fullett the next webinar will be on monday Gary_Fullett 7 pm cst Brian_O will that be the bar by bar? Gary_Fullett so write kelly is u wish to attend so we can invite u Gary_Fullett knorris@ltg-trading.com Gary_Fullett usually sunday will eb bar by bar Gary_Fullett and monday lecture on smi wyckof Gary_Fullett BUT monday will be bar by bar Brian_O but whereas Sun is July 4th? Gary_Fullett this will help u inderstand wyckoff pronciples Brian_O got it, thanx Gary_Fullett yw Brian_O Wyckoff Principles on Tue? Gary_Fullett well i do type on wyckoff principles Gary_Fullett evetaully will convert to all webinars Gary_Fullett last 2 newsltters i did long term charts Brian_O much better format Gary_Fullett i kow Gary_Fullett but i ahve to make sure i can archive it Gary_Fullett easier for all of us Gary_Fullett if i could easily do it i would Brian_O Kelly seems pretty smart :)) Gary_Fullett she is Gary_Fullett but to sttore the arhive son a server si very expensive with charts and vice Gary_Fullett okay any ohter q? Gary_Fullett monthly Gary_Fullett s and p Gary_Fullett u can se the breal Brian_O new to this type of format, do we just ask questions on any of the charts? Gary_Fullett one of the thigs i ned to point out and its very important Gary_Fullett yes Gary_Fullett ask when u have a q Gary_Fullett or comment Gary_Fullett u cna say Gary the break form the high Gary_Fullett was base don litle cause Gary_Fullett cause vs effect Gary_Fullett that the cause trading raneg on top gave u a large move with little cause? Gary_Fullett a few months distrubtion Gary_Fullett lead to 1 1/2 break Gary_Fullett thats true kent joined. Gary_Fullett BUT Art left. Gary_Fullett thats also why we rebounnded back RB are you talking about the break in 08 or the recent break? Gary_Fullett 07-09 break Gary_Fullett yes RB 08-- Gary_Fullett probably because we go t too etnded up side and too extended down side Gary_Fullett so the cause vs effect Gary_Fullett was out of whack for a few months or so Gary_Fullett it doesn talwasy have to be in line day by day the wyckof principles Gary_Fullett and i will discuss them at the webinar Gary_Fullett if u notice the lows Gary_Fullett u have 2 ways to label it Gary_Fullett do u see the first low Gary_Fullett in 2008 Gary_Fullett mid yr r so Gary_Fullett withhigh volume option y Gary_Fullett this can be the prelimnainry support Gary_Fullett and the lwo can be the selling cliamx Gary_Fullett the voluem Doesnt have to be the highest on the selling cliamx Gary_Fullett in thoery it should Gary_Fullett but not everything is clasical Ory i though it did rich joined. Gary_Fullett the volume in 2009 Gary_Fullett in amrch 2009 Ory that can happen before Gary_Fullett was on lesser volume kent in a perfect world it would be, ory, but not everything is perfect Ory THANKS kENT Gary_Fullett so not an issue that lighter volume can be the selling cliamx kent yw kent price acttion, spread, and vol all are imp Gary_Fullett understand/> Brian_O what then would you call the Jan '08 bar? Wide range, high vol, wouldn't that be considered priliminary supply? Ory i thought you were at work Kent option left. option joined. Gary_Fullett no kent took the night off tonighyt, only 6 hours of sleep all week Gary_Fullett preliamary sypply happnens before a buying cliamx Ory holy man kent couldn't think straight, let alone talk on phone, lol Ory correct Gary_Fullett so no brian the pre supply Gary_Fullett hppens before the buyign cliamx Gary_Fullett do u know what the jan 08nbar is? Gary_Fullett it is the first weakness after the high Gary_Fullett what is that called? Ory listening Gary_Fullett u know ory Brian_O OK, I'm just trying to compare it to the Wyckoff Wave chart here Anna Shake out Gary_Fullett u should lol Ory i should /? Gary_Fullett no Gary_Fullett yes Gary_Fullett it is a SOW Gary_Fullett not the pig Gary_Fullett the sign of weakness Gary_Fullett vertcal suppply bar as well Brian_O OK, makes sense Gary_Fullett then a weak retest Ory thankyou Gary i was looking at the wrong side of chart Gary_Fullett that weak retest higher Gary_Fullett is also the last point of supply Gary_Fullett lpsy Gary_Fullett :)_ Ory mark down Gary_Fullett last point of supply the last up move before mark down Gary_Fullett will discuss this in the webinars Gary_Fullett undertand? Brian_O it actually looks classic in comparison to the Wave chart Gary_Fullett it is Gary_Fullett the weaknes tell s u a story Ory i got that one right Gary_Fullett dont worry folks this will all be discussed in the future webinars easie rto talk vs type it Brian_O so which bar do you consider to be the buying climax? Oct '07 Gary_Fullett there wasnt Gary_Fullett whicj is why i didnt abel it Gary_Fullett 2007 wa sactually a retest of the 200 highs Brian_O would the SOT and increased spread possibly have given you a clue? Gary_Fullett but u had sot previosuly Gary_Fullett so,, Danny_T what is sot Gary_Fullett the clue was perfect retest from 2000 Gary_Fullett shortening of the thrust Gary_Fullett sot Gary_Fullett smaller range Danny_T ok Gary_Fullett alck of up or down sid progress Brian_O I see, yes, I had 2000 highs hidden behind dialogue box lol Anna lol Gary_Fullett i didnt draw it Gary_Fullett so the rlaly took u to about 1/2 back and we are retracng Ory sot was also an UT Gary_Fullett u can see the retest Gary_Fullett the top was at the sot Gary_Fullett was alck of upside progress Brian_O do you subscribe to the notion as well that many times 3 times is the charm when it comes to breaking old support/resistance? Not etched in stone but a higher likelihood. kent which chart are you on gary, I just got the charts RB first one kent ty rb Gary_Fullett the mot e times u retest the more ikely u r to go 3 Gary_Fullett monthly es RB yw Ory s n p kent k, ty Gary_Fullett the first retest ralrely has a mmove Gary_Fullett 2nd retest we cna breakout fom the 3rd retest Gary_Fullett the more retest the more lilihood Gary_Fullett no set rules in trading. Gary_Fullett so do u see the sot Gary_Fullett 2 months ago Gary_Fullett pretty clear? Brian_O and that at those times you would be specifically watching price action for possible breaches and retests? Gary_Fullett volume and price Gary_Fullett yes Brian_O no, I understand no rules etched in stone Brian_O if only.... Gary_Fullett if u had rules Gary_Fullett u could program wyckoff Gary_Fullett which cant be done effwectively Gary_Fullett though i aM SEEING MANY ARE TRYING AND SAYING THEY "HAVE IT" Gary_Fullett U need rules for software Gary_Fullett and tradign not that way Gary_Fullett any q on monthy Gary_Fullett steve will eb ehre do i need to burn some rubber Gary_Fullett daily Ory thnxs Gary_Fullett we see w ebre the may 6th lows Gary_Fullett ans the ice support at 1032 Gary_Fullett i thought yesterday could be a sot Gary_Fullett ' so i thoht mayeb e move back into the tradng range Gary_Fullett btw this si from the newsleeter Gary_Fullett tha steve and i do Gary_Fullett i said 1050 resiatnce and 1004 support Gary_Fullett went to 1006 Gary_Fullett alosyy perfect Ory pretty good Gary_Fullett almost Gary_Fullett u cna see my comments for today Gary_Fullett i want to say something here. Gary_Fullett some called Gary_Fullett for the my 6th Gary_Fullett low was a shakeot Gary_Fullett but with a shakeout Gary_Fullett u immediately or almost immediatly Gary_Fullett react Gary_Fullett u started to Gary_Fullett but u stoped at 1170 area Gary_Fullett sinc eu didnt make new highs Gary_Fullett and came back into a tradign range Gary_Fullett this made the may 6th move Gary_Fullett NOT a shakeout Gary_Fullett and i have explained this Gary_Fullett so the tradign range after that may 6th move snt a shakeout Gary_Fullett understand? Gary_Fullett ver imp Gary_Fullett the reaction form the : shakeout bar) was poor Anna A shake out would require strenght in the back ground Brian_O just so I'm clear then, you're saying a shakeout should/must result in a new high? Gary_Fullett not in the backround BUT from tha shakeout bar Brian_O or at least a retest of the highs? Gary_Fullett SO THA MAY 6TH BAR Gary_Fullett SHOULD AHVE MADE NEW HIGHS Gary_Fullett well if just a retest of the high Gary_Fullett s then it can be a a sign of wenakess Gary_Fullett and a retest for distribtion Gary_Fullett will discuss it all in the webianrs Ory i,ll go with that Gary_Fullett i didnt sen the nekkei chart that i di for the new sltter Gary_Fullett but it is weaker than out market Gary_Fullett but lok at the dow monthly rich left. Gary_Fullett the s andp went to the 200 highs in 2007 Gary_Fullett the dow Gary_Fullett made its highs Gary_Fullett but alot form the 2000 highs Gary_Fullett but the dow 30 stocxks Gary_Fullett can be maniplauted more Gary_Fullett becuse only 30 stocks Gary_Fullett the dow wa smuch hihger Gary_Fullett do u see the sihn of wekaness Gary_Fullett the rally Gary_Fullett an the last point of suply Gary_Fullett classical wyckoff Gary_Fullett and te sot Gary_Fullett that stopped the run up Gary_Fullett dow 1932 Gary_Fullett any one ever see this tradng during this time? Gary_Fullett u cna even draw yoru channels Gary_Fullett the pont of the chart Gary_Fullett see where i wrote Gary_Fullett we are her enow? Gary_Fullett july 1932 Gary_Fullett this was the top of the raly from thw lows Gary_Fullett if we have tope din the a and p now Gary_Fullett then the move form march 2009 Gary_Fullett to now Gary_Fullett so they retst swetz joined. Gary_Fullett to 1932 high Gary_Fullett we corrected Gary_Fullett so we may be there now Gary_Fullett see this? Gary_Fullett the last chart Gary_Fullett is how i would have lableed Gary_Fullett if i did charts then Anna Very Nice Gary. Very Gary_Fullett after the move up and the corecttion Gary_Fullett u see the sign of strgth Gary_Fullett in 1933 Gary_Fullett it is on the rigt sid eof the trading range Gary_Fullett and we had a joc Ory so is history repeating itself so to speak Gary_Fullett it could be Gary_Fullett i wante dto show it Gary_Fullett 10 i thogth cool Gary_Fullett 2) i thought many never saw it Gary_Fullett 3) Ory thxs Gary_Fullett to se if i could spot somthing Danny_T looks to me like we are in about july 1934 Gary_Fullett iu should lok at the labeling Gary_Fullett u think w ehad a JOB danny already? Danny_T not yet Gary_Fullett well in thsi case Gary_Fullett we did already Gary_Fullett in 1933 Gary_Fullett thats why i ewuate it to 1932 Danny_T when did employment pick up back then Gary_Fullett i am lookig at charts nt fundies Gary_Fullett so dont know Gary_Fullett i wnat t say somehtngimortant Gary_Fullett i attended a webanr for about 30 min today Gary_Fullett and it was a guy who does volume an d price work Gary_Fullett so i htought i would hear what he says Gary_Fullett he ha indicatoe lke trade guider Gary_Fullett and he says Gary_Fullett I dont sue liners Gary_Fullett no channles Gary_Fullett no horizoantal lines' RB According to Amos potential objectives it could be more like April 1930!! Gary_Fullett and eh explained tha they clutter his chart Gary_Fullett but his work is on wyckoff Gary_Fullett right rb Gary_Fullett he think dow any 3k Gary_Fullett he ay be right Gary_Fullett may Gary_Fullett my point is Gary_Fullett that many are going to price and voluem ebcause it si effective Gary_Fullett and they dont wnat to follow wyckoff per se Gary_Fullett and work ahrd to learn t Gary_Fullett so rather have gimmamcks Gary_Fullett take a portion of wyckoff rename t and packaage it Gary_Fullett if u study wyckoff study wyckoff Gary_Fullett if u want to add to it and out yoru own bells and whisltes on it Gary_Fullett then call it something else Gary_Fullett but to piiggy back Gary_Fullett wyckoof sname and add to it Gary_Fullett u dne need to with wyckoff Brian_O marketing Gary_Fullett wyckof STANDS BY ITSEF Ory but Wyckofff has good principals Gary_Fullett doesnt need help Gary_Fullett like addgn to the bible Gary_Fullett it si ory but follow the purity Gary_Fullett the beauty Gary_Fullett of wyckoff is purty Gary_Fullett purity Gary_Fullett is that it doesn tneed to eb comlimntated Gary_Fullett so i am sure u will eb hearing more of it Gary_Fullett people trying to make a buck Brian_O I've got to fly, thanks for all you do Gary, have a great 4th all KevinA joined. Gary_Fullett seeling wyckoff liketuff Gary_Fullett tyb brian ty Gary_Fullett as well Brian_O left. Gary_Fullett it will confuse u and it will hurtt yoruoperation Gary_Fullett any q Gary_Fullett okay iwish uall a great 4th see u at the webinar BT why can't you just archive a transcript of the videos and link them to the chartskeep the videos in house and send them when people request ,,but the information would be on line and the video sitting in your office hardrive Gary_Fullett steves charts are next tonyw joined. BT that is a comment for archiving the info in the videos Ory Thanks Gary you also swetz I hear I am up BT I hit send was going to pm you in the end Gary_Fullett pinch hite rsteve joe_s thanks gary BT woops Alex left. option tks Gary! Gary_Fullett BT can u wrte kelly and ask/ Gary_Fullett i ahve no idea Ory Hey Steve Gary_Fullett u r welcome options swetz only got 2 charts tonight but they show some important ideas, at least to me swetz howdy Ory :) swetz lets start with the last chart first swetz it is the weekly Nasdaq composite index bar chart Alex joined. swetz this chart shows the action going all the way back even before the November 2007 top of the last bull market roger left. swetz before we get into a concept that is addressed in Wyckoff's books "How I trade in Stocks and Bonds" and his biography swetz and is also addressed by Bob Evans in some of lecture tapes swetz lets first look at the Nasdaq chart in terms of waves swetz NOT elliott waves but BUYING and SELLING waves which is how Wyckoff looked at charts swetz to help determine the TREND swetz and the character of SUPPLY/DEMAND swetz On this chart, we can see that this chart is overlayed with my swings swetz these swings help me to not only block out the NOISE but also helps me to determine the TREND in an objective manner swetz which keeps my bias and/or emotions out of the picture which is a good idea :) swetz From the March 2009 low swetz we can see a buying wave from the low at A eventually led to JOC of a MAJOR multi-month creek swetz the subsequent reaction to point B made a HIGHER swing low and held ABOVE the CREEK area and easily held ABOVE the 1/2 point measured from the low at March 2009 or point A swetz so NO DOUBT we were seeing a MAJOR CHANGE in TREND swetz there is NO other way to interpret this action which is wonderful because this black & white conclusion cannot be altered by our bias/emotions/whatever swetz it is what it is swetz from point B another buying wave begins swetz rallies to prior major vertical supply area and major Ice area swetz but the next reaction is WEAK to point C just like the reaction to point B was weak swetz so we know that weak reactions are almost always followed by higher prices swetz which is what happened on the next buying wave swetz then another selling wave to point D occurs swetz now this selling wave was the strongest compared to all of the previous selling waves swetz so we are getting a WARNING that maybe this bull market (if that is what you want to call it) from the March 2009 low may be running out of steam swetz now as long as we continue seeing SUCCESSIVE HIGHER swing HIGHS followed by HIGHER swing LOWS, the TREND is UP!!!!!!!!! swetz PERIOD!!!!!!! swetz but we can be on the watch for a POTENTIAL change in TREND swetz often Wyckoff's concept of PRELIMINARY SUPPLY provides us with that WARNING swetz so after point D, another buying wave ensues swetz everybody is happy, the market is off to the races swetz the Wyckoff trader is long too because even though he sees that the uptrend maybe tiring and a change in trend may be around the corner swetz the REALITY is that the trend is still UP!!!!! swetz now something very important happens on the selling wave to point E joe_s left. swetz we get a selling wave that basically negates ALL of the gains from the last buying wave and does so with STRONG SUPPLY and SPEED rich joined. swetz uh, oh - for the FIRST time we are seeing a selling wave that is STRONGER than the previous buying wave swetz now the trend is turning into more of a SIDEWAYS trend swetz and the the WEAK rally after point E could NOT even get above the 1/2 point measured from the April high swetz and is followed by a selling wave that makes a LOWER swing low swetz for the FIRST time since the March 2009 low, we are seeing a LOWER swing high FOLLOWED by a LOWER swing low Janet left. swetz now we still have one day of trading left this week so this week's bar still has one more day of action before it gets painted swetz so a spring is still possible kent not going to happen, lol swetz BUT either way, we cannot deny that the TREND has CHANGED!!!!! swetz lol Kent, I wouldn't think so either but I have been wrong before :) kent lol swetz if we just look at these alternating buying/selling wave from the March low swetz can we see how at first swetz the buying waves lasted a long time, traveled far, and had some pretty good demand swetz the selling waves were weak, didn't last long, didn't fall very much, and important supply was basically absent swetz BUT as the TREND continued swetz UPTREND swetz the selling waves began getting stronger as the buying waves began getting weaker swetz Wyckoff looked for this behavior all the time when his was trying to analyze the true battle between buyers and sellers swetz so since this chart indicates that a MAJOR change in trend has occurred in the market swetz we can use Wyckoff's law of cause and effect swetz to calculate POTENTIAL downside objectives swetz which is what the next to last PnF chart attempts to do swetz the attached 20 x 3 Nasdaq composite PnF chart calculates a count of 13 which I have shown at the 2340 count line swetz making the assumption that 2340 was the LPSY of this huge TR KevinA left. swetz this count projects a potential downside objective of 1740 by subtracting 780 (13 x 20 x 3) from the April top swetz of 2520 swetz an aggressive downside objective comes to 1560 by subtracting 780 from the 2340 count line itself swetz now there is NO guarantee AT ALL that this objectives will even been reached swetz and even if either one of those objectives were reached, the PnF chart has NO ABILITY whatsoever to tell us WHEN that might occur swetz the PnF chart only tells us that based on Wyckoff's law of cause and effect, there is enough cause that has been built for this potential effect Danny_T Does the count most often come from the top or the lps swetz Danny - according to Bob Evans who created the count guide for the Wyckoff course swetz the count line is level of the LPSY after a SOW swetz for a downside count swetz and the count line is the level of the LPS (last point of support) after a SOS for an upside count swetz :) Danny_T ty swetz my pleasure Tommy would u take the first count from 2425? swetz Tommy - if you judged that to be the LPSY, you could Tommy ty swetz :) swetz okay let me quickly go over an important concept not only to me but some other very successful traders I either know or have read about who actually made lots of money in the stock market and not just talk about it Danny_T so the first row of x is not counted swetz Danny - I am not sure I understand the question, the attached PnF chart shows the shaded area that I used to come up with the count of 13 RB It has to do with lpsy and that is subjective. I am not clear on that either on p&f swetz the count of 13 assumes that the January high was Preliminary Supply Danny_T I see now swetz :) swetz RB - you are right, it is subjective Danny_T for a upside count then it would be 14 swetz Wyckoff gives us guidelines in how to identify them swetz Danny - for an upside count there would have to be a SOS and LPS, I don't see that here Danny_T ok swetz admittedly I am alway apprehensive about discussing PnF charts swetz because I know we all like to have targets, it is human nature to want to know what is going to happen before it happens swetz the PnF chart is only a TOOL swetz that Wyckoff determined was the best way to measure cause RB Please, I appreciate covering p&F, not trying to imply anything. swetz the MOST IMPORTANT thing is the TREND!!!!!!! swetz Trend is REALITY, targets are just potentials swetz no problem RB :) swetz oops, past 10 swetz let me just quickly talk about this concept of "window of opportunity" swetz this term is not in any part of the Wyckoff course, books, lecture tapes, etc. swetz BUT Wyckoff infers about the importance of locating those intermediate turning points to buy/short stocks RB continue as long as needed. swetz in those items I mentioned at the start swetz on the last chart swetz you will see I shaded in some areas RB Great subject swetz those shaded areas are the BEST times to BUY leadership quality stocks swetz right at or after an IMPORTANT TURNING POINT swetz even that very first shaded area on this chart swetz back in July 2008 RB It would appear to me that we are in the "shaded area" to short now and in the past few days?? RB at least the begining of the shaded area? swetz you may be right RB, but I use a slightly different method to short swetz which may be a good topic for a later time swetz :) swetz but back in 2008 even when the market was weak kent ty swetzer swetz cy Kenter :) RB will be very interested to hear more on that. swetz July 2008 Anna Point "B' Is very Attractive Steve we'll buy the (SMH) at the right Time ::smile Ory N kent Tommy ty Steve ... always a pleasure to get your comments on the mkt swetz that window of opportunity led to some leadership quality stocks going up 30-50% kent gn ory swetz even when the market was ready to fall off a cliff swetz thx Anna :) swetz anytime Tommy :) swetz anyway, all done, any questions? Ory TY Steve always great kent left. RB tu gary and steve, very helpful. swetz oops, forgot one thing, the first 4-6 weeks of each window of opportunity are the BEST of the BEST times to buy leadership quality stocks Ory TY Gary Gary_Fullett ty swetz NOT every window of opportunity leads to a great leadership quality stock moves Gary_Fullett fanatstic of course swetz but if you want to have the greatest EDGE Gary_Fullett stev does the stock portion swetz those are the times to begin positioning Gary_Fullett of the newltter swetz this past one, which is actually NOT highlighted turned out to be a dud swetz but it is easy to see in HINDSIGHT swetz I deal with concepts that I can make money in real-time swetz thx RB, Ory :) Danny_T ty steve and Gary Ory yw Steve swetz okay, if no questions swetz have a wonderful night folks :) swetz anytime Danny :) Anna Thanks steve Gary nite All swetz my pleasure Anna :) Anna left. swetz okay, over and out, cy guys tomorrow or next week swetz left. Danny_T left. Gary_Fullett night all ty Gary_Fullett left.