Amos joined. Amos Hi handles joined. Tommy joined. Amos Ok I start again with TIME Amos showing some of my homework during the past week-- handles hi amos Amos First chart is dollar 8 hour bars Amos You can see that avter the initial reaction from higher high (WITHOUT ANY SHOW OF REVERSAL-- or SUPPLY , or whatever you want to call it-- the market COILS into a trading range. It is VERY IMPORTANT to learn to cope with such puases in a strong move-- so as NOT TO LOSE THE TREND. Gary_Fullett joined. Amos The purpose of such pauses is simply to LURE CONTER TREND bravados Option left. . joined. Option joined. Amos and the correct (big word) moment indicator , many times is a savior-- because it tends to keep the trend honest Mr_Steve joined. Amos many times a fibo number of sorts in ONE of the time frames-- is (MOstly found in HIHDSIGHT) also participating-- that is why I am trying all time frames to "guess" which MA is the ONE -- SMART MONEY is looking at. This is a tough guessing game-- and success is sporadic yoohoo left. Amos here-- it was early last Friday and I see a 34 bar "triangle" and a clear approach of the 55 ma-- and I am asking myself-- will THIS hold? Amos Next chart says "YES: Amos I write above the chart: "Lesson-L In a bull market the MA is IMPORTANT-- Pay attention roger joined. Amos You must fump from time frame to another-- to see where they are LOOKING Amos Notice that all 3 MAs are still pointing up! wyatt joined. Amos also the oscillator (no matter what it is)-- is showing "tiredness and even a small crossing-- this is the reason they hold-- to get enouh Osicllator people to use that tool in a trend-- big mistake Amos Next chart -- the inverse-- the Euro--notice hoe the market is HUGGING the downslopping 55 MA-- and I am looking for potential cycles-- THere was a CLEAR 35 bars (8 hours) cycle-- and I mark it on the chart-- and WATCH Amos one important clue is that when you watch the EURO ( or any currency) -- on the furure side-- YOU MUST also look at the FOREX PICTURE-- because once in a while Amos they are SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT-- and the Picture on the FOREX SIDE-- is MORE ACCURATE!!! Amos TRY IS FOR YOURSELF--DO NOT BELIEVE a word you hear here Amos Next chart is the DIALY time frame Amos FIrst daily chart is LAST THRUSDAY (a few hours after last week lecture) I am looking all the time for TIME SIGNALS!!!! so there is a po9ential 18 day cycle from the low at 80 to the big washout WITH GAP DOWN in ealry May. So I wonder is that will work Amos I call it Chai , which is 18 in Gimatria Amos the range above 86 is now 11 days Amos next chart is further work on the time factor--this is a few hours later-- it is LAST FRIDAY00 and I am trying to GUAGE THE RELATIVE duration of the last several REACTION in this up move. This is LBR trick-- and It is worth learning Amos Nothing special about it-- you just COMPARE RALLIES AND REACTIONS-- EYEBALLING IS SUFFICIENT in most cases-- I like to also COUNT THEM Amos Soe you see that the FIRST reaction took 15 days Amos the next 18, the next 14 and the current one-- is in its 12th day. I do not believe in APPOSLES (sp?) but 12 is a nice zodiac number and it certain getting closer the the "AVERAGE correction in this DOLLAR RALLY> Amos Pay attention-- it sounds Awfully assenine to talk about "average reactin withing a rally"--can trading be so IDIOTICALLY SIMPLE? Amos THE ANSWER is YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES! Amos You can also see that thie correction does NOT make a lower low towards the "end"-- which is typical for strong market-- because the SHORTS are on a NOOSE-- NO WHERE TO HIDE!! Amos nuff of that Amos Next chart is OEX Amos Again-- last friday Amos Notice something very important-- unlike the s and p or the nasdaq-- the OEX DID make a lower low on the MONTHLY CHART. and I write -- CRUCIAL-- LOWER LOW. These things ESCAPE THE EYES of most people-- but when you look at the chart in HINDSIGHT- MONTHS LATER-- EVERYONE SEES this siganl and says-- "IT WAS SO OBVIOUS" Amos you better pay attention to these tiny detials-- they ARE part of the Secret code of the market-- the fact that we made a lower low-- is simply an indication that supply is winning! Amos Of course that lower low may turn out to be a SPRING-- but IF THE TREND IS DOWN-- then this LOWER LOW is an IMPORTANT SIGNAL Amos I said many times that the OEX index is being USED by the market to send important messages-- good to listen to it Amos Next chart on the s and p itself-- that May 6-- "washout" can be used now for a WATER MARK-- that day will be interpreted differently as time goes on and the market continues to decline-- we will look back and ask ourselves0-How did we FAIL to "read"this obvious siganl correctly? Amos At any rate-- you can use this important day as an ANCHOR-- so if I count from it-- them last frisday is 21 days-- and I write, surprisingly on the chart--- "21?"---- ain't this clever? tonyw joined. Amos At any rate-- we are at a 21 day distance from an important chart mare AND the 21 MA is looming high-- will this be SYNNERGY? Amos again-- all I am showing you is the type of TIME homework I am doing-- and once in a while -- I simply attach it the the next letter---remember-- this is TYPICAL work that I do all the time-- and some of it I just put in the letter- to see how it works or fails-- and if it fails-- I just hope you and I learn from that failure! Amos the time of the posing of each chart is MARKED at the lower right corner-- so you can CHECK IT-- it is all REAL TIME TRADING Amos Next chart- also last friday morning- is the EURO- POUND chart Amos This is the MONTHLY chart-and I mentioned it, I think, Last time Amos You can see a CLEAR break of the last 9 many months range--- and the next creek is at 80. This is a VERY IMPORTANT CHART SIGNAL on that spread and the chance Amos that the EURO WILL CONTINUE to lose to the POUND in the next year or so-- is VERY REAL!!! Amos How will that be? will the Pound rally faster than the euro? Amos will the pound deline SLOWER than the decline in EURO? Mr_Steve . Amos will the Euro deline and the pound rally?-- NO ONE KNOWS-- the SPREAD DOES NOT Tell you which of these possibilities will occur-- only that THE EURO WILL LOSE TO THE POUND Amos for a LONG TIME hokah joined. Amos Next chart is a filure-- again from last friday and I see that the Seginhardt model of the FIRST DAY OF MONTH-- gave a signal-- the LOW of the first day of June has been violated-- and if you believe in that model ( it is not the worst around) you are SHORT gold with a stop above the HIGH of the first day of JUNE Amos Next chart shows you-- LOST Amos and I write-- NO IT IS NOT (the opening day of month model)-- but then I try to turn this LEMNADE INTO A LEMON Amos I WRITE : Kind of scret--how a filiure of a model in the PRICE CATEGORY-- gives you a HINT about the TIME ENIGMA-- STUDY THIS Amos this is a very CRUCIAL POINT Amos Many times -- when a certain model-- in the price category ( thrust, thrust after KR-- jump and back, break away,,,,,, YOU NAME IT) FAILS-- what it MEANS is simple: Amos YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE WRONG TIME FRAME Amos pause for a moment and SAY IT TO YOURSELF (aloud-- no one will laugh)---this is a litle watch at retirement gift from me-- many times-- a filure in one category -- gives you a HINT in another category. Go back over charts and TRY TO VERIFY TO YOURSELF-- DO NOT BELIEVE ME! Amos but the fact that you can turn some lemons in the market into a tasty lemanade-- is a nice feature Mr_Steve left. Amos so I look at the weekly gold-- and it is NOT CLEAR-- then the MONTHLY chart is clear Amos THERE was an obvious OKR in gold and now you have to wait for a MONTHLY THRUST, nothing smaller than that-- to get a signal Amos Next chart it Nasdaq large filter Amos It is ALWAYS good to look at 50% retreacements-- even when you use othere than bar charts Amos Sometimes you concentrate on the count-- and you tend to ignore the numerical retracement-- and many times the COUNT PREVAIL-- but as GOOD HOMEWORK-- it is ALWAYS good to MARK those points on your chart and WATCH The market when it comes to that point Amos You can see that the drop from 1950 to 1750 was a very strong one (was done on the 6th of may drop) Gary_Fullett 3-2 Amos since then the market recovered all the way to the top of that drop-- but then DID LOWER LOW-- which is either a SPRING-- or a LOWER LOW (numbere 3 spring) and any reaction from there-- is bogus rally Amos Gary-- what do you mean by 3-2? Amos GARY Amos Knock knock Amos must have left the computer for a moment. What a guy-- says 3-2 and leaves Amos Next chart Amos you can see that that 50% point was watched like a HAWK by the CM- and the drop we got from there-- was ferrocious Gary_Fullett hawks Gary_Fullett im here black hawks Gary_Fullett sorry Amos so-- this is another example of how imortant it is to DO CONSTANT HOMEWORK and mark all important points on the chart and then play IF THEN!!!! Amos ahhh-- it is game night? Amos that is OK-- I will pretend that there is ONE listener-- and talk to him-- while the rest are just phantom names that are watching the game-- they can read it later-- like a Senator phillibustering in an EMPTY Hall Amos Next chart is the s and p --daily-- the PICTURE OF EXPIRATION Gary_Fullett YES TROUGHPY NIGHT roger Im listning I'm not a sports nut Gary_Fullett IM LISTENING Gary_Fullett have it in backround Anna Im here Amos left. Amos joined. Amos Was booted off-- can you see me? Option yes wyatt yes Anna y Caby If-Then better than what-if Amos LOL I was wondering if the chatroom frowns upon ball game derrogation Amos back to the s and p daily chart and the rectangle- the right edge of that rectangle is EXPIRATION DAY Amos now you tell me-- out of all the OPEN INTEREST IN JUNE-- How many longs have profit? Amos note at the bottom that open interest have risen l 3 days Amos bottom pickers? Amos 9 times out of 10 when Open interest is large enough and ONE SIDE IS AN OBVIOUS loser-- close to expiration-- WE GET A SQUEEZE-- it is EASY MONEY since all the longs have to ROLL OVER_- THEY MUST SELL THE JUNE CONTRACT if they want to go into the September one-- THEY ARE ALL ARTIFICIAL SUPPLY and the market does not have to LET THEM OFF THE HOOK!!!! yoohoo joined. Amos so do not be surprised that we get a LONG SQUEEZE next week Amos one of the variation of futures trading-- you can clearly see that it is happening in the euro-- all the longs in the June contract MUST exit by MONDAY-- that is why the market WON't LET THEM OFF THE HOOK! Amos Next chart is the mini dow--You can see that the 21 MA served as important resistance here too and the market is making LOWER LOWS---- (like the OEX) and there is no LONG with profit near the TRIPPLE EXPIRATION--and I write-- we shall see Amos Next chart again the daily s and p- again COMPARING Reactions and rallies-- the LBR paradigm Amos I have marked 3 rectangles on the chart-- first was 8 days Amos second was 8 days Amos and we are in the 4th day of the reaction--- I wrote a Question mark-- if the market wants to replicate the "normal" duration of 8 days to the next low-- then-- we have some measruing stick Amos this symmetry thing in the market-- is a BIGGY--- DO NOT IGNORE IT Amos Next chart is the euro-- on the subject of long squeeze Amos notice that the market barely moves (it rallied a littel above 120 today-- but I doubt it even penetrated the LOW of the FIRST OF THE MONTH !! Amos Notice the rise in OPEN INTEREST-- the market is FULL with BOTTOM PICKERS who are MET with SHORTS!!!! Amos This is NOT bullish-- when the market is bottoming you want to see DECLINE of OPEN INTEREST --that is SMART MONEY-- THE SHORTS-- need to LIFT THEIR SHORTS if they see a rally coming-- NO ONE IS LIFTING THEIR SHORTS YET!!!!! Amos Important lesson-- and you only have it on the FUTURES SIDE-- TOTALLY HIDDEN on the FOREX SIDE-- and this is another little secret of markets Amos Ok == from now on I simply repeat the THRUST MODLE-- I was asked to explain it again-- and I am trying one more time Amos I use the copper monthly for that explanation-- I will try to make it "classical" so that I won't have to repeat it in the future-- and Gary and Kelly can always refer to June 9 lecture as a reference of the THRUSt---OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHH just realised it is 6-9 or 69 Amos Get a lesson about the THRUST method-- THE 69 way !!! I like that Amos You can see that the month of MAY 2008 was a DOUBLE TOP AND a huge OKR- this is an important signal and you want to sell the NEXT LOWER LOW if you follow the THRUST AFTER KR model Amos June made a lower low and rallied. July made a higher low and a higher high-- and you want to sell a LOWER LOW AFTER THE OKR Amos it happens in AUGUST of 2008--- I mark on the chart-- "HERE IS the THRUST --- GO SHORT with stop above high Option left. Amos Of course in this case-- the trade is VERY UNCOMFORTABLE because the INITIAL stop loss if over 80 cents!!!! Very few people can afford such a stop loss-- but it IS a CORRECT SIGNAL-- and had you followed it--- YOu got a fast drop from 350 to 150 without any risk of your position and all you had to do is LOWER YOUR STOPLOSS to the last MONTHLY HIGH Amos So the INTITIAL stoploss can be reduced fairly soon Amos Still-- NOT many can take such a good signal-- That is Why i have mentioned several times lately-- that this model -- when combined with a RAHTER DOABLE stoplosss-- is a GIFT-- does not happen too often Amos I Amos Again-- this is COOL BUSINESS-- you have a CHART POINT-- the OKR--- and you simply wait (no matter how long it takes!!!) for a LOWER LOW and that is YOUR ENTRY! Amos At the bottom-- there was NOT BUY SIGNAL!!!! Amos At least not any model that I can recognize!!-- such is life Amos Now comes JANUARY of 2010 and again there is a an OKR Next chart Amos This time I go bar by bar-- to make this example clear Amos We see the OKR on the monthly chart- I say-- WATCH FOR A THRUST-- MUST BE ON THE MONTHLY CHART-- NOTHING SMALLER-- SORRY Amos Next chart is February-- lower low, lower high-- but strong close-- that means we continue for at least a nominal higher high Amos next chart Art joined. Amos Indeed March is a higher high that takes out the high of the OKR-- THAT IS NOT IMPORTANT (unless of course the market keeps running higher-- in that case YOU MISSED THE UP MOVE-- but you are NOT SHORT!!!!) Amos the genius of the THRUST METHOD -- in ALL CASES is ONE-- IT IS SIMPLY a GOOD RISK MGMT TECHINQUE!!! just that-- and If you manage your risk-- you have a good business-- all alse is empty talk and baravado Amos the thruest FORCES YOU TO JOIN THE TREND and it CLEARLY DEFINES THE STOP LOSS POINT Amos in other words it gives you 2 numbers of the NEcessary 3 that make trading a good business--- Amos THAT IS THe ESP acronym-- NOT Extra Sesory Perception (there is NO INTUITION IN TRADING-- the only INTUIION is IN- TUITION-- the tuitiion you have to pay in order to get "IN") Amos but ESP is simply three numbers-- E-- ENTRY POINT (result of model, homework, analysis, filtering, seardhing for HIGH LOK) Amos S==STOP LOSS-- without it-- you are a gambler and you do not know how to hold them, you do not know how to fold them , you dont know when to walk aways , you do not know whent to run Amos P- Profit taking-- which is the least important number-- but it contribtes significantly to the EARNING CURVE (not Learning , but earning) Amos If you understand this-- then you realize how worthehile is the thrust method-- agian because it gives you a very clear STOP LOSS POINT-- even if, at times, it is IMPOSSIBLE for many small traders to take the RIGHT SIGNAL-- such is life-- no one is promising you a ROSE GARDEN, folks Amos next chart Amos March is a higher high and a lower low-- with a LOW CLOSE-- you are close-- you put a sell signsl BELOW the LOW OF MARCH and your stoploss is ABOVE the high of MARCH Amos You do not ask questions Amos You do not hesitate Amos You do not waver Amos You do now DOUBT it--- YOu SIMPLY DO NOT CARE-- YOU HAVE A BUSINESS MODEL WITH RISK CONTROL--- this is GOOD BUSINESS!!=== all other talk -- is GARBAGE Amos What if you lose? WHO CARES-- THIS MODEL HAS MUCH HIGHER THAN 50% sucess chance-- so YOU DO IT-- IF YOU DO IT 10 times-- you will make money about 7 times and Lose 3 Amos your profitts will NEVER BE HUGE-- But you will make money on BALANCE!! Amos Next charty Amos On the first day of April (APril fools day) you got your entery signal Amos YOU are shor on a STOP ( ENTRY IS ALWAYS ON A STOP--not market, not limit-- just stop) beolowe 331,60 and you stoploss is above 368. If you cannot afford that stoploss-- this trade is NOT FOR YOU. PERIOD Amos but this is THE CORRECT TRADE. NO ARGUMENT! jil left. Amos Market closed the month in the middle-- so it can stall for a while-- you DO NOT CARE-- you had your E-- and you have your S--- the rest is EMPTY TALK Amos Last chart is JUne-- you can see that supply is entering the market Amos You are short around 331, the market is at 277. From now on YOu have to manage your trade Amos How you do it-- depends on your SOUL. If you like to play a lot of gold and go fishing-- you leave your stop loss at 368 (or perhapse you want to lower it to SCRATCH) but nothing more Amos If you want to play around your position-- OK Amos but you have a correct trade-- and a correct business Amos I hope this example is clear . left. . joined. Amos Obviously -- the higher the time frame-- the more Reliable the signal-- but at the same time THE HARDER THE TRADE because the INITIAL STOP LOSS is MUCH FARTHER-- nothing can be done about it-- this is THE CORRECT WAY to do things-- if you want to do it Amos you play by the RULES Amos If you have any questions-- now is the time Amos LOL Amos ok I must be crystal clear Amos Ok-- no more charts-- and if no questions-- I bid you good night hokah thank you amos Amos ywc roger ?? roger why not enter on a market roger why only stop? TTR left. Amos because the derinition of a THRUST is either a LOWER LOW-- if you sell or HIGHER HIGH if you buy-- why is this so difficult to grasp Gary_Fullett amos i will ark it for the archives Amos OK-- you can even ark it for NOah Gary_Fullett i ned 2 of everythign thn Gary_Fullett then roger lol roger there is already two nuts Amos yes, this is the essence of 69-- 2 of evetythig hokah left. Caby left. Anna Great lesson Amos I understand. warren Amos I think there was some confusion before tonite that a thrust was always upward Amos Good for you Anna-- it took me FOOOOKEN 15 years to grasp this simple idea! Amos A thrust is a MODEL-- so it MUST WORK BOTH WAYS! Gary_Fullett thats why warren Gary_Fullett I asked amos to explain Gary_Fullett and we cna have for the arhives warren I mean by definition -- a thrust down and a thrust down Amos Richard Dennis said: You can advertise the best Trading secrets on the FRONT PAGE of the Wall Street Journal -- and 90% of the people will still REJECT THEM! warren thrust up Amos warren-- thrust is either HIGHER HIGH= OR LOWER LOW. That is the meaning of THRUST-- something that PUSHES PRICES IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CORRECT TREND! hawk left. warren yes thank you -- understand Amos still- I must reiterate, because I sense that this point is glossed over by most-- the GREATEST ATTRIBUTE of the THRUST method is that it FORCES you to treat trading as a BUSINESS because it has a BUILT IN RISK MGMT IN IT!!! yoohoo left. yoohoo joined. Art left. Tommy ty Amos Amos besides-- Mundial starts tmw-- and most men around the world will neglect their wives, will stop harrassing Jews, will only gaze at large flat screens and dring a log of beer Amos ok gn folks Amos left. Gary_Fullett lol Gary_Fullett night amos Tommy left. roger left. Gary_Fullett night all ty Gary_Fullett left.