Amos joined. Amos Hi Mr_Steve Hello Amos Mr_Steve Hope everything is ok across the pond Doc_k greetings to all AllenH joined. Amos define "everything AllenH G Eve All.... ::biggrin Mr_Steve everything Mr_Steve or should I say quite Mr_Steve quiet Amos we are awaiting the holiday of KURBAN which is their Passover. abc163 joined. Mr_Steve starts when? abc163 ge all Gary_Fullett joined. Amos ok, I am in a giving mood tonight-- so I will share some of my most disasterous trades-- perhaps you can learn from them Amos it starts this friday, Steve Amos I start with some interesing observaion, at least to me--- the daily chart of the euro and the swissy warren joined. Daphne joined. Gary_Fullett left. Gary_Fullett joined. Amos This is something that you should always pay attention to- ESPECIALLY as moves become old in the tooth and you ACHE to buck the trend anticipating re Amos resistance/support or turn around --that is where the MOMENTUM indicators become SIGNIFICANT. I am almost convinced that they ARE the tool at which t Amos the CM is looking--- OOPS- I see a new feature-- i see a red count that tells me how many characters I am allowed to type before I am stopped Amos this is interesing-- it is like this is twitter and all I am allowed is 140 characters?! clever Amos the machine is really taking over our own decision powers. BIG BROTER IS HERE. FOLKS Amos I am looking at the daily euro Amos we have been in a range last few weeks== and you can see that the 5 and the 21 mas are converging, the 5 even had its first crossing to the downside Amos of the 21-- but the GOVERNING power is the larger ma which in this case is the 55. notice how it HELD the last decline and the market very patiently Art joined. Amos is trading sideways to "meet" the next time. In the long run it is MUCH more profitable to watch the MOMENTUM indicator-- in a long trend Amos then to try to catch the "corner" and the reversal. Amos Why? Amos because that is how smart money works and thinks Phil joined. Amos so the second ellipse describes the fact that the sideway trading is more the "squaring of time and space" of Gann, rather than "DISTRIBUTION Amos it may be the beginning of supply-- but as long as the market respects the long MA--- we should too Amos Remember again the IMPORTANT point that MOMENTUM is worthwhile ONLY IN TREND and oscillators ONLY in ranges-- anyone who uses them differently is Amos simply ignorant of the math involved! Amos next chart is the swissy which is less significant currency these days-- and here again you see that the break below the last 7 days was ONLY returnin Amos to the MOVING AVERAGE-- and the response from that point-- was significant! Amos Is the 55 ma more signficant than others-- NO!! the point is to be CONSISTENT. But it is good to watch those points Amos I have gotten used to WAIT and see-- how the market reacts near those MA at points where I think it is about to turn! it saves money Kelley joined. Amos the third case of the MA influencza is the dollar skylar joined. Amos you see that the spike beginning of November (which on some exhcnages happend in ONE TICK-- held EXACTLY at the 55 MA Amos the ONLY way , in my opinion that this can happen is only if the CM had HUGE AMOUNT OF STNADING ORDERS TO SELL at that price!!! Amos if that is TRUE-- then THIS IS HOW THEY WORK-- good to know and pay attention Amos last rally did nt come close to the down sloping 55 MA-- but nontheless-- was resistance Amos so, I suggest paying attention to this. The biggest advantage here is that it has a MINIMUM predictive power-- because you can SEE where it is going Amos to be in the next week, month, so forth-- this is a useful tool Amos Again-- ONLY IN A STRONG TREND!!! Amos Next is something that i fell upon incidently last weekend and I thought to share with you. I am NOT at all sure of its validity--- it is NOT somethin Amos I pay attention to (except in weekly spreads which I have shown long ago can be a major secret! but happens VERY RARELY--like the Nasdaq Spa in 2003 ) Amos at any rate-- I decided to scan a few chart via the LINE chart. It of course misses the REAL points of supply and demand which are the high and low Mr_Steve . Amos of bars--- but it gives you some rough summation of END of periods and since we do pay attention to monthly and quarterly charts-- then these Amos periods are important Amos Pause.... Just my curiousity-- does the fact that the program limits pragraphs to 150 chartcters is helpful?! just wondering nic left. Larry left. wa left. Janet left. Bob left. Frank left. Amos oopd, did not know my question was so offensive Peter keeps the riff raff short and brief :) Gary_Fullett i am lloking to see if we can expand it Kelley lol Gary_Fullett lol pter AllenH ::laugh Amos No Gary-- if the crowd likes it-- this can be a nice addition Kim left. C left. Greg left. Mr_Steve yes helpful Gary_Fullett actaully severl in the day session ask for an expansion Amos them the hauty ones Amos I see some disconnections Amos I will continue slowly Mr_Steve easier to read at 149 char. Q left. Papa left. Gary_Fullett doesnt matter to me Amos The next chart is the quarterly DJT Amos you know that I am looking intentively at the transport-- to see any Dow Theory significant signals Amos and all of a sudden I see a "perfect" double bottome on the LINE CHART Amos this is HARDLY a coincidence! - since I believe that all charts are manipulated Amos I admit that this is the FIRST TIME I am looking at this chart-- and I did NOT see this--- so right now it is HINDSIGHT and rather useless--- however Kelley DJ Industrial chart I think Gary_Fullett left. Kelley chart #4 Amos the knowledge imbedded in this can be significant-- it may be one of the reasons for the strong rally we are having since March of this year Amos Please take my words here with a large spoon of salt-- becausse I have NO experience with this-- but it is so amazing to me-- that I brought it here Mr_Steve chart 4 is DJI Amos Notice that it had NO MEANING at the high which was just stuck there like an OBELISK with no rhyme of reason and turned on the "dot" Gary_Fullett joined. Amos Next I looked at the DJS quarterly and here--interesitngly enough we held ABOVE the 2003 lows--- which implies-- still a bull market-- very differrent Amos and interesting observation! Marsh left. Amos Next is the s and p SEMI ANNUAL!!!! Amos look at the almost perfect double top and double bottom!~!!!- YOU must feel at AWE looking at this chart Al left. Trader_1 left. Amos I dont recalll ANYONE showing this chart before--anywhere-- but if it is VALID-- then we are missing something by NOT looking at it Amos why are there so many breaks tonight and many are disconnected? Is this normal on Tuesdays?! indigo left. Bill left. Amos at any rate-- comparing the s and p LINE CHART with the BAR CHART which is next-- is a small education. Gary_Fullett i think it may be the site they did some changes AllenH Gary's old equipment....lol Gary_Fullett lol Amos The bar chart BROKE the 2003 low significanly but closed the Semi with a KR--- so perhaps the line chart is telling us somthing important. I do not Amos know, but i am going to watch it from now on Amos changes, Gary? so those who are kicked off can say that they are out of site?! Gary_Fullett lol Amos I started to gaze at other instrument via the line chart-- and saw some interesting things. Again-- THIS ALL MAY BE a figment of my imagination Amos and the fact that it happened this time can mean NOTHING for the future-- but it is Interesting Amos the next chart is the monthly silver Amos here you can see that we BROKE all the last lows before the 1008 high-- and that may contribute to the relative weakness of the silver in this Amos gold rally Amos also-- the line chart indicates that we are close to a double top-- and that is worth watching-- remmeber this chart ONLY records the CLOSE or the l Amos last point of the MONTH-- ignoring all other highs and lows DURING the month! Amos But if you look at the next time frame--the Quarterly silver-- you see something interesting- we are ALREADY at a HIGHER HIGH!!!! so perhapse Amos there is hidden strength in the silver that we DO NOT SEE in the line chart- Amos Of course that chart may look totally differnet on Dec 31-- but it is interesting to know that the last line high was 17.5 and if, per chance Amos it becomes the bone of contention towards the end of 2008--then you know why-- perhaps the CM will fight to keep it BELOW that point-telling us Amos that a real double top is forming there-- just a point to pay attention to Amos Last general observation tonight is the dollar point and figure Amos you can see that we are strting to have some large violent moves withing about 100 ticks range Amos this is indication of strong forces doing battle and more often than not-- the cause generated in such ranges-- manifest themselves in the next Amos move--- I do not want to count yet-- because I have no idea how wide will be this "clean count"--may turn out to be not clean at all-- so the point Amos is NOT to predict an extent of a move-- just to point out that there is a strong battle-- and the next move will be sharp. I of course am still Amos hoping for a sharp SELLING CLIMAX that will test the space between 75 and 71-- the previous low-- but have no idea if that will happen Amos I have said in the past-- that if we DO get a distinct Selling climax- it will be a gift. Amos Ok. the rest of the evening i want to share with you real experince (trade) of mine-- that cost me almost 200k and If you do not learn from this Amos important morale-- then you are wasing your time Amos Long ago, a guy departed rom GVI-- he was a smart guy and before he departed for an important job he wrote a few of his wisdom which I have kept tj joined. Amos His first Maxim was the sentence L "there is a huge gap between analysis and trading markets to make money" Amos if you are new in this business-- you simply cannot fathom the depth of this statement Amos it sounds so trivial and simple minded--any child can say and understand this. NOT! Amos the important words in that sagacity is the last two words-- MAKE MONEY Amos most analysts-- talk and show off and explain and sound very clever (sometimes me included) but-- when it comes to the actual MAKING MONEY-- they Amos flunk! Amos Here is on examply how my analysis was briliiant and I flunked BADLY . left. . joined. Amos I wil try to describe to you what i did and what i thoguht and felt at each step of the way-- and you can make your own conclusions and even remarks Mr_Steve . Amos after the rally from 85 to 92 in 2006 I was convinced that the correction in the yen is about over and that the next rally should go and test the 100 Amos at least and actually test higher Amos you will see as I continue-- where these decisions came from-- they were NOT a guess but hard work from a rather experienced trader. I was in a groove Amos at that time and mad some very good money and felt rather confident in my analysis and trading Amos so look at the part marked inside the red square and see my demise Amos during that period I was accumulating a large postition- I think at the top I was long 35 contracts of yen. Mind you-- I could afford this Amos because that position still fell below my MAXIMUM 30% margin allowance Amos this is a very crucial point that any good trader will tell you-- if you maring more than 30% of your account--- YOU WILL DIE one day! Amos Go to the next chart and see the Quareterly picture of the yen Amos You can see the Hypodermic to 126 in 1995 where SOROS lost his billion dollars Amos the very sharp declin for the next 3 years-- 12 quarters with only ONE higher high which was , in hindsight OKR that had you bought the next Amos quarterly thrust-- you would have been OK Amos then we had an "A B C" 50% correction from 70 to 100. the top of that correction is another classical example in Trendline charting Amos then we corrected to 75 and rallied to 100 still NOT closing the GAP on APRIL 1 200 around 9977 Amos and started antother correction by the end of 2006 we tot back to what I thought was a SIGNIFICANT CREEK--- the low of the lasge bar in 2003 and I wa Amos was sure that i must buy the next thrust to go higher Amos I started to buy above 90 because it was a QUARTERLY THRUST!!! Amos you can see that the bar that i call "thrust closed in the MIDDLE-- and i was sure that we will trade SIDEWAYS for a while after than!!! that is why Amos I allowed my self to be a little greedy and build a rather large position Amos next bar thrusthe the previoius one to the down side- and i DID NOT BAIL OUT!!! Amos why? because I was so sure that the creek held, that we had an important thrust, that the last quarterly closed in the middle Amos and it is only a BEAR TRAP Amos once I made this CARDINAL mistake-- I WAS DEAD MEAT! Amos fromt that point on for a WHOLE YEAR the yen creeped down ever so slowly but methodically Amos I can tell you that I have a speical file RECORDING my thuohgt process and my WYCKOFF analysis of the whole decline--- it is in my HALL OF SHAME Amos file--- they analysis was so brilliant-- RICHARD would have been mighty proud of me--- the patient died! Amos it is in a POWER POINT presentation-- and perhaps I will show it to you some day Amos now notice the two rectangles at the bottom- this is something I have metnioned here before- Part of this trade was while I was talking in this room!! Amos I was trying to harness cycles to help me and was looking for some symmetry and cycle lows --because I was LONG! Amos and after that QUARTERLY THRUST in 2006 I was SURE I am righrt Amos ALso notice the TRENDLINE-- 8 year trendline that I was SURE will hold and I mentioned that trendline here many times!!! Amos The bottom line- on the last rollover in June expiration of 2007 I had a loss of close to 200k and I simply DID NOT HAVE the EMOTIONAL DOLLARS Amos to rollover one more time-- and I could NEVER ENTER AGAIN! Amos by the time I had to liquidate my last 12 yens in the June expiration-- I was so disgusted with myself, with wyckoff, with cycles, with trendlines Amos with thrust, with anyting-- that I had to convince my self-- via the SOUR GRAPES parable-- just to deal with my frustration-- i had to rationalize Amos and tell myself that I am totally wrong about my analysis and the yen is going DOWN DOWN DOWN! Amos that way making "sure" I could NOT joing the Next thrust-- and you will see in a moment how IDIOTIC that was Amos So now lets forget for a moment analysis and try to see what that smart feller meant in the sentence above about the HUGE GAP between analysis Amos and making money Amos lets look at the annual chart Amos the cycle at the bottom calls for 5 years (a little different than the monthly cycle-- and it was 6 years instead-- not such a huge discrepency Amos there was a very significant KR and if you bought the THRUST after that KR- and your stop loss was the CORRECT ONE-- below the low of the THRUST Amos you would have never been stopped out Amos THe trendline on the yearly chart turned out to be a "PERFECT" spring followe by a YEARLY OKR!!!! and I LOST MY MONEY AND MY NERVES at that POINT Amos how SUPID CAN YOU BE? Amos Folks-- this is REAL TRADING-- not a theoretical example- and I an NOT a BAD TRADER!!! Amos now comes the important part of this example: stick with the monthly chart- which is , in the yen, a good approxiamtion to the manipulation of kampo Amos and the bank of japan Amos Let us go back to the actual trading and see what would have happend if I simply followed the RULES of the thrust (Mind you WITH my brilliant analysis Amos but with CORRECT TRADING!!!! Amos I got long on the monthly thrust above 8540. that is a CORRECT TRADE Amos my stop loss must be at 8470 on the next bar because this is makes it a THRUST to the DOWN SIDE Amos had i used it-- I would have lost 170 ticks (about 2000 per conract) Amos I should have bought the next thrust above 8640 with a stop loss at 8420-- this is correct trading Amos I would have lost 120 ticak-- about 1600 dollars per contract Amos so far I had two trade of 2000 and 1600 dollars loss over a period of 6 months! Amos next chart Amos I should have bought the third thrust at 8300 ( i am giving a few ticks leeway on each thrust-- they do NOT matter in the long run) Amos and my stop loss is below the low-- I would have been stopped out at 9600 on a stop and made 1300 ticks- that is about 14000 dollars per conract Amos NOTICE that there is NO WAY IN THE WORLD that I could catch the high at 105 so I left on the table 900 ticks!!!! Amos shame Amos but instead of losing 200K-- had I done this simply crude correct trading I would have made 1300 minus 290= 1000 points which is 25000 per conract- mu Amos multiply by 32 and you get a nice figure! Amos If you wanted to continue that method-- then after the run to 105 you , again want to buy the next thrust Amos this, on the monthly chart would have gotten me long at 9640 with a stop at 9240-- loss of 400 points. Amos the next thrust was at 9350 with a stop loss below 9000 antoher 350 ticks risk Amos the next chart was posted twice so the one after it is the next exit-- below the last low at 10550-- a gain of 1200 points againt 1200-400 another 8 Amos 800 ticks Amos I was right about my whole analysis, I had all the tools to makd close to 500k on the trade with the position I starte with and I lost 200k Amos Good analysis that turned nice profit into a large loss Amos true story folks Amos the method is working Kelley analysis paralysis? Amos it gurantees that you will NOT CATCH THE CORNERS and you will LEAVE A LOT OF MONEY on the talbe--but in real trading-- if you want to maximize Amos your profit-- you will DIE Amos if you do not follow a plan, it means that YOU DO NOT BELIEVE in your system Amos if you do not believe in your system-- you are NOT a trader Amos I have mentioned here at least twice before the quote from Bruce Kovner about making mistakes, roger joined. ia left. Amos In the real world-- when you make mistakes-- it tends to SHAKE your confidence Amos this is VERY WRONG! Amos this is the genius of the market that it knows to do it to even good traders Amos If I got shaken out at the bottom of that yen correction-- you can bet your bottom dollars that Amos OTHER rather good traders experienced same Amos There is only ONE way to over come this weakness-and that is STICK with disciplined trading and do what you know Amos Next chart sums it up Amos there were 3 trades with -170, -120, -400 and 2 trades with +1300 and +1200 Amos both winning trades were about 70% of the maximum profitable chance-- but that is WILD DREAM Amos that is our imagination-- NO ONE CAN CATCH THE CORNERS. IT IS FORBIDDEN TO EVEN TRY Amos the losing trades are simply the COST OF DOING BUSINESS-- if you look at them any other way (as I looked upon them-- giving up on my analysis!)-you Amos STINK Amos Is this the right way to trade? not at all-- you do not have to use only the thrust method- but the big advantage of this method is that it gives you Amos a REALLY CORRECT STOP LOSS---you never have to worry about the market "CATCHING YOUR STOP"-- you should be HAPPY THAT THIS HAPPENS-- becuase it brings Amos you that closer to the WINNING TRADE Amos Now, mind you-- there are situation in the market-- expecially in prolonged ranges-- where this can be very costly--- in a really long range Amos your profits may dwindle significantly-- SO WHAT? you cannot maximize profits., Amos This is THANKSGIVING-- we should give thanks Amos the fact that there are methods that can make you money in the market once in a while-- while 95% of traders are perrenial losers-- is GOOD ENOUG Amos reason to GIVE THANKS for just being in this room!!! skylar Yes Amos Nest chart is another horrible example of mine Amos I was sure that the crb is about to have a significant rally- I thougt we wil go to 300 (never in my wildest dream did I thing of 600!) Amos so I boubht the monthly thrust around 219 Amos Instead of getting out on the down thrust- I held-- because I BROKE my method-- I was so convinced of my analysis Amos I got out with a loss of 24 K at that time my account was much smaller than it was in the yen example and I was forced to get out Amos I NEVER CAME BACK IN! Amos THE LOSS was so damaging psychologically that I could not get back it Amos Why? I have no idea. but the simply answer is that My emotional dollars went to zeor and you cannot trade with zero dollars! Amos if you let that happen-- you will not make money in the market place Amos next chart is true too Amos you can check commodity archive Amos when the CRB went to 250 thus breaking the last high-- JIM ROGERS came out with a famous internet clip where he declared a MEGA secULAR BULL MARKET Amos in commodities Amos I could not join-- because I said that BEFORE and I LOST and my mind was betraying me Amos The sour grapes paradigm WORKS! Amos YOU MUST NOT LET IT AFFECT YOU!!!! Amos Then above 500 I started to short commodities thinking this is a bubble-- instead of WAITING For the THRUST!!!! Amos again good ANALYSIS--HORRIBLE TRADING!!! Amos The last few sentences in my letter tonight are 2 more points from that smart guy from CEBU (don;t know him) on GVI: Amos There is NO relationship between being "right" and making money Amos FUCK RIGHT! Amos forget you ego. FOrget your emotional needs--just follow prices and let the rest of the world be on the losing side Amos the CM thinks in terms of years and in terms of CHUNKS OF PRICES Amos right now everyone wants to short th market Amos WHY? Amos The Compsite man is still LONG (or OUT OF HIS SHORTS) Kelley because cnbc says so Kelley lol Amos who cares how high the market goes? it will probably go until all the shorts give up Amos and then the boom will be lowered again and the move down can happen so fast as we saw only a few months ago Amos Next sentenceL Amos Having a definable game plan and follwing it wil overcome prro analysis Amos sit and think about it--- that smart guy is saying that you can make money even if your analysis is poor Gary_Fullett left. Amos what an amazing statment--but it is true Amos because of the fact that the biggest problem is in our PSYCHE and not in the analysis --then having a plan is just the way to overcome our weaknesses Amos in hindsight it is very easy to discuss your mistakes and your actions Amos in the real playing field-- when someone is shooting at you--- it is MUCH more difficult Amos but the fact is that the PLAN WORKS Amos don't worry about losses--as long as they are PART OF YOUR PLAN_--- the only losses that will kill you are those that VIOLATE YOUR PLAN John left. Doug left. Jason left. Rick left. Dan left. Tom_M left. Jake left. Tee left. Mike left. Hal_C left. Mike_Gallager left. Amos the losses that are part of your plan are COST OF DOING BUSINESS Amos ok-- the system is really vicious tonight Amos so I will say HAOOK and finish here Amos Open to questionse Kelley ty Amos Mr_Steve Our market is being pumped with false paper, it has no real value at these highs. Do you believe this? abc163 ty Amos Amos Sreve---let us say that you are right-- that means that the next decline will be prolonged and hard-- why not wait for a good signal and JOIN IT Mr_Steve I am told it is the Gov. that keeps buying to keep the market up. Amos give the corners to the losers-- catch the meat Art left. Gary_Fullett joined. Mr_Steve Have no idea if this is tru Amos Steve--i will sell the next monthly thrust, period Mr_Steve I play only major trend changes after confermation. I am a options buyer and seller Gary_Fullett left. Gary_Fullett joined. Mr_Steve Thanks for your wisdom Amos. Have a nice evening Gary_Fullett amos ty Amos ywc Mr_Steve Amos I have a question Amos have a very happy thanksgiving and drive carefully Amos gm Mr_Steve How long had you been trading currencies before your big loss? Kelley left. Amos many years Peter have a great week Amos, thank you Amos bye skylar thanks Amos & all Amos left. Mr_Steve OK, gotta go, thanks again and have a nice evening Gary_Fullett be well amos Gary_Fullett left.