Gary_Fullett joined. Gary_Fullett Good evening abc163 ge Gary Gary_Fullett we have to finish charts form tuesday Gary_Fullett and steve had 5 charts Gary_Fullett good evening abc Gary_Fullett and all mark joined. RKB joined. Phil joined. Gary_Fullett steve has some nice chats Gary_Fullett i didnt add any Gary_Fullett to allllow for time for him Gary_Fullett i have 2 cgharts plus some lecture tonight.. Gary_Fullett so lease reteive the quiz charts form tuesday Gary_Fullett 2 charts Gary_Fullett but first any quesitons? jmoz joined. Gary_Fullett okay Gary_Fullett let me do a few minutes of lecture Gary_Fullett then charts. Gary_Fullett but befre this does any one have a tpic on wyckoff they wodl like cleared up Gary_Fullett okay then i have a topic... Gary_Fullett a simple one but very very important one.. Gary_Fullett its about terend Gary_Fullett trend.. Gary_Fullett wyckoff is a trend following way to trade Gary_Fullett the cm large money Gary_Fullett smart money Gary_Fullett they conduct a campighn Gary_Fullett either accumualtion or distreibtion Gary_Fullett buyign to go up Gary_Fullett selling to go lowerr Gary_Fullett so they conduct campaigns Gary_Fullett eventually the new s takes them to where thy want to market Gary_Fullett wat the new sis they dont know but they know to buy or sell Gary_Fullett for mark up or mark down Gary_Fullett so the cm takes a postion Gary_Fullett and the trading range of a market Gary_Fullett they buy the ice support the bottom of the reange Gary_Fullett and they sell the creek resistance.. Gary_Fullett but the cm even if he feels higher Gary_Fullett will still sell at resiatnce Gary_Fullett he may buy 100 contratcs Gary_Fullett and sell 50 at resiatnce but on bvlanc ebe long 50 jak left. Gary_Fullett balance Gary_Fullett so the jump over the creek or resiatnce willl appen on some bulish news Gary_Fullett the specs and the funds Gary_Fullett will buy the bulish news Gary_Fullett enhancing the profit of the cm Gary_Fullett this mark up pahase will continue Gary_Fullett untill we have a buying cliamx Gary_Fullett when the greed of prices going higher reaches a maximum Gary_Fullett but the cm will stay long thru the process Gary_Fullett in ths longer term up swing Gary_Fullett u will get alot of stoping action Gary_Fullett temp stoping action Gary_Fullett but that s within the over all up trned. RKB left. RKB joined. rich joined. Gary_Fullett so it is a trend fllow way to trade Gary_Fullett there are opportunties to slel short in the process Gary_Fullett but mainly be long Gary_Fullett the only way the markets top is 2 ways Gary_Fullett 1 ) a buying ciamx Gary_Fullett 2 weak demand that leads to selling supply Gary_Fullett BUT in both case theere is selling in an uptrend there sint selling Gary_Fullett but in a buying climax there is selling Gary_Fullett and a lack of buying r demand will elad to selling but in both cases selling MUST be shown swetz joined. warren joined. Gary_Fullett so selling must be present to turn a trend down Gary_Fullett other wise u will NOT have a trrned change Gary_Fullett any q thus far? Gary_Fullett so wyckoff follows a trend Gary_Fullett riule number 1 of trading Gary_Fullett follow the trend. Gary_Fullett makse sense?> John yes abc163 y C y Gary_Fullett good Gary_Fullett okay now please reteive the 2 quiz charts form wed Gary_Fullett i mean tuesday nivght Gary_Fullett and the 5 chartrs for steve on tonights archives warren left. Gary_Fullett okay Gary_Fullett quiz chart Gary_Fullett what do u see here Gary_Fullett in all chart u will have a bar or so dm down trend Gary_Fullett that will indicadate a red flag warren joined. Gary_Fullett change of bevavior Gary_Fullett so we look for that red flag Gary_Fullett could be that price and volume dont equal Gary_Fullett it can be a vertical demand or vertixal supply bar Gary_Fullett so lets see what w ehave here with this chart Gary_Fullett first we try t find trend Gary_Fullett so whast trend here? Gary_Fullett sideways up down? roger down jmoz down John down Gary_Fullett okay good i would agree Gary_Fullett so in a down trend Gary_Fullett we fllow that till we get a red flag williammanda joined. Gary_Fullett but first look at the bar Gary_Fullett feb 3 Randy joined. Gary_Fullett large down Gary_Fullett no follow thry Gary_Fullett 7 bars later Gary_Fullett wide bar mid range close Gary_Fullett this bar there was seling from horizontal Gary_Fullett resistance Gary_Fullett at about 1650 area Gary_Fullett see tis high area John yes jmoz y Kim y Gary_Fullett okay Gary_Fullett so we started to break with the trend being down Gary_Fullett the next bar that important in the doown trend Gary_Fullett march 17- march 18 Gary_Fullett increased volume Gary_Fullett increased bar actrion Gary_Fullett see this Gary_Fullett so the high of thsi mve Gary_Fullett a the 1300 Gary_Fullett forms creek resiatnce Gary_Fullett it is a reaction high Gary_Fullett and we se eic eat Gary_Fullett 10 00 area Gary_Fullett so the cm ha s formed a range Gary_Fullett a trading range Gary_Fullett either for mark up or mark down Gary_Fullett so who is bullish and who is bearish this stock? roger bullish jmoz bullish roger on April 1 Gary_Fullett but i thought a doen trned? Gary_Fullett down Gary_Fullett why up? roger lower vol and went up from support Gary_Fullett where roger? jmoz holding 10 lower volume Gary_Fullett great jmos thats true Gary_Fullett BUT light voluem at suport roger with close near top Gary_Fullett does tha turn trend? roger no supply Gary_Fullett true Gary_Fullett but ina donwn trend u dont need supply its already present RKB left. roger not saying I wouldn't be bearish at 1300 have tosee how it gets there Gary_Fullett so we know light volume at 10 area Gary_Fullett we alo see small bar range Gary_Fullett which is how many times a market can btom abc163 how to explain the selling on last week of march? Gary_Fullett so we have 1/2 of a possibel bottom Gary_Fullett will get there Gary_Fullett i say its apathy when they show litle interest at the lows Gary_Fullett march 17th Gary_Fullett we got a bar Gary_Fullett that was highe ron highe rvolume Gary_Fullett we talk about follow thru Gary_Fullett the next bar is follow thru Gary_Fullett anothe rup bar Gary_Fullett with volume Gary_Fullett this is some demand Gary_Fullett so alck of supply can lead to demand Gary_Fullett if it does Gary_Fullett then u can have an uptrend to begin Gary_Fullett but lack of supply Gary_Fullett must lead to demand to tuen up Gary_Fullett so we got ths demand Gary_Fullett now either we have mark up or a retest Gary_Fullett what did we get? Gary_Fullett a retest right Gary_Fullett end of march Gary_Fullett that abc mentioned Gary_Fullett so the retest was on light volume Gary_Fullett this says LACK OF SUPPLY Gary_Fullett after DEMAND Gary_Fullett thsui bullish and part of accumaltion Gary_Fullett oso we had a retest of ice support Gary_Fullett and volume decreased Gary_Fullett so we had a smll bar Gary_Fullett a sot shortenig of the thrust bar Gary_Fullett the 2nd to the last bar Gary_Fullett the next bar the last bar Gary_Fullett was a high end close Gary_Fullett please turn to te next page Gary_Fullett the chart is bvullish Gary_Fullett it is paret of accumaltion Gary_Fullett and the up bar was a probe Gary_Fullett that last bar of the quiz Gary_Fullett lead to a retest of creek Gary_Fullett but we had another retest Gary_Fullett look at the bart before the joc Gary_Fullett was a very small bar Gary_Fullett at crek Gary_Fullett hows lack of supply Gary_Fullett then mark up Gary_Fullett it is a great chart!!! Gary_Fullett shows the process of accmualtion Gary_Fullett and mark u[p Gary_Fullett any Gary_Fullett quesiosn the sotck man is next Gary_Fullett stock roger to you which bar signaled trend change? Gary_Fullett to me the key bar Gary_Fullett was the amrch 17- march 18 baers Gary_Fullett the market move dup on increased vlume aid demand abc163 Does the bar on feb 2 and the one seven bar later give you any clues? roger makes sense thx Gary_Fullett doesnt sa much Gary_Fullett wasnt ending acrion Gary_Fullett no wyckoff to em there abc163 thx Gary_Fullett great Gary_Fullett okay im done thank you... Gary_Fullett now steve who does the othe r 1/2 of the newlstter is discussiing some great charts Gary_Fullett stop eating cookies Gary_Fullett his charts are archived under tonights date swetz ::up ::tongue swetz http://www.ltg-trading.com/20091029.pdf swetz there is the link to the charts swetz I actually messed up when I sent the charts, they are out of order swetz all 5 charts are the SnP index, actually 2 of them are the ETF of the SnP index swetz over different timeframes swetz I dont think I have done this before but I thought with the end of the month being tomorrow swetz we could take this market and see what we can figure out starting with the monthly chart and working our way down to the 10 minute chart sanf joined. swetz the monthly chart is the 3rd chart in the series of 5 charts swetz on this chart, the first thing that catches my eye is a HUGE TR that has unfolded during the last 10 years or so swetz some folks, may say the market has gone nowhere in 10 years and yes this is basically true swetz but so what swetz notice the amazing moves that have occurred during this 10 year time period swetz on the upside and downside swetz within this huge TR there have been tremendous money making opportunities between the MAJOR SUPPORT/RESISTANCE levels swetz that many traders have been able to take advantage of swetz and those traders did not have to catch the bottom or the top to make money swetz all they had to do is to catch the meat of the move and not worry about catching tops/bottoms swetz anyway, we can see that this current rally from the March low which came from a spring position swetz and from a very, very oversold position based on the downtrend channel line drawn AH_Tex joined. swetz has reached the SUPPLY TL swetz and the vertical SUPPLY area from October 2008 swetz if we look closely at the last 4 bars swetz we can see that the CLOSE of each bar is making less and less upside progress compared to the previous bar CLOSE swetz in fact, a down day tomorrow will likely create the FIRST bar since the March low swetz that has a LOWER CLOSE swetz so this chart is telling us that demand is running out of steam swetz while approaching a potential resistance zone swetz of a downtrending channel swetz and has the look of an upward SHORTENING of THRUST swetz now, NO ONE knows what the next reaction will look like swetz maybe the market breaks with tremendous selling and to tests the 700-800 area swetz or even goes lower swetz maybe the market breaks in a slow drifting way that may test the 700-800 as well swetz or maybe the market goes sideways similar to what happened back in 2004 swetz which is what I have shaded in a rectangle box CMtheInsultDog joined. swetz where the market just goes sideways for several months swetz and then begins another monthly buying wave swetz as traders, we DO NOT have to KNOW which scenario will occur swetz all we have to do is to read the market as it unfolds and realize based on our knowledge of Wyckoff swetz that the weaker the reaction, the more likely we get another buying wave that we would want to join swetz and the stronger the reaction, the more likely we want to get short or at least stay on the sidelines swetz anyway, we know right now from the monthly chart that the market is at an area where sellers have a good opportunity to take control away from the buyers swetz so knowing this, lets go to the weekly chart swetz which is chart #4 billy joined. swetz I kept the monthly supply TL on the weekly chart swetz for everyone's viewing pleasure :) swetz from the weekly chart, we can see a JOC (Jump Over the Creek) in late July swetz over 950 swetz which began a weekly UPTREND swetz that is shown on this chart by an uptrend channel swetz one thing to notice that as this uptrend has unfolded swetz the buyers are struggling more and more to make upside progress swetz that red down arrow that I have swetz shows that the rally to 1100 before turning down has not even come close to reaching the parallel overbought TL of this uptrend channel swetz in a sense, this is an UPWARD SOT and confirms what we saw on the monthly chart swetz what I like to do when I see a market FAIL to reach an overbought TL is to draw a RTL (Reverse Trend Line) along the swing highs swetz which is what the dashed pink line is swetz so we can see a sort of "wedging" action as the support TL and RTL begin to converge swetz Bob Evans, a great Wyckoff teacher, called a converging of TLs a "One-eyed Joe" swetz he would often say that big moves often occur from a converging of TLs and he would look to take advantage of these situations swetz as buyers and sellers finally came into balance until one side finally yielded to the other side which lead to EOM (ease of movement) swetz EOM would look like wide range bars on the chart swetz we can see that not only are we seeing this converging of TLs, this is occurring at a potential resistance zone in a larger timeframe (monthly) downtrend swetz so we should really be paying attention to look for an important turning point to form to lead to an important selling wave swetz now lets go to the daily chart swetz chart #2 swetz the first group of arrows in early August swetz is a good example of Wyckoff's law of effort vs. result swetz or stuffing to some extent swetz where large volume entered the market but very little progress was made swetz what is happening is that large buying is being met by large selling swetz so the market is not able to make much headway swetz in fact, what generally happens is that a turning point occurs for a reaction swetz we can see that the reaction that followed the early August stuffing action was WEAK!!!!! swetz please, please remember that when we see evidence of a turning point, we WILL NOT know whether the next reaction will be strong or weak swetz all we know is that the market is ready to react swetz this weak reaction however tells us that the daily uptrend is still in a strong position to continue swetz which it does swetz so the SnP continues upward swetz and then we get similar stuffing action in mid-September swetz which is marked by the 2nd group of arrows swetz so once again, we should be expecting a turning point to begin another reaction swetz which we get swetz but notice that the reactions or getting STRONGER swetz they are falling in greater distance than the previous reactions or selling waves swetz this one fell below the 1/2 point and eliminated any bullish spacing swetz we see this weakening of the uptrend swetz but we must NOT forget that the daily trend is still UP!!!!!!!! swetz we are only getting a warning to start being more defensive in taking new buy positions swetz or maybe begin considering tightening our trailing stops swetz but we are NOT ready to get short yet Gary_W joined. swetz because the trend is still UP!!!!!!! swetz now as we continue to watch these alternating buying/selling waves unfold swetz we notice an interesting bearish change of behavior in a sense swetz from a volume standpoint swetz notice that the rally from the October low is showing a substantial lack of demand Bob left. John left. Nic left. swetz especially when we compare this volume to the volume on the buying wave in September and the stronger selling on the reaction to the October low swetz see how we are getting more and more evidence that demand is getting weaker while supply is getting stronger swetz as the uptrend unfolds swetz we can see that a little uptrend channel is still present swetz but with selling getting stronger and buying getting weaker and this current reaction coming from an UT position, the daily trend is slowly becoming sideways swetz so lets go to chart #1 swetz the hourly SPY chart swetz SPY is the ETF for the SnP cash index swetz I showed the swings of the buying/selling waves on this chart swetz so you can see the PROCESS of buyers losing control to the sellers on a smaller timeframe swetz notice the buying waves keep getting weaker and weaker as the selling waves get stronger and stronger swetz what I am showing you is how markets turn many times swetz these TURNING POINTS are where LOW RISK TRADING OPPORTUNITIES occur swetz these TURNING POINTS are where the PROS take positions swetz on the hourly chart, the bars marked A, B, and C swetz are where very low risk shorting opportunities could be made swetz I personally shorted the Russell 2000 because it was weaker than the SnP and was already in a TR while the SnP made a slightly higher high that turned out to be an UT swetz the last chart #5 is the 10 minute chart that shows the actual trigger bars swetz that provided the short entries swetz I marked the trigger bars A,B, and C swetz so you can line them up with the hourly chart to see them from a larger timeframe perspective Tom_M left. Marsh left. swetz anyway, what I do is look for tight sideways action or a clustering of closes (Wyckoff looked for this as well) swetz to let me know that buyers and sellers are temporarily in balance swetz we know eventually, one side will overcome the other swetz and HOW this occurs and WHERE this occurs will determine if we got a TRADE swetz if you look at ALL of these entries, they SHARE SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS swetz the bars are WIDE, the CLOSES are poor (which is what we want for a short entry), and VOLUME INCREASES swetz Amos talks about thrusts, to me, NOT every thrust is an entry, I want them to show STRONG evidence that one side has overcome the other side swetz in this case, supply has strongly overcome demand swetz so I look for EOM, a CLOSE in the direction of my trade, and VOLUME swetz I don't ALWAYS have to have all 3 elements, but the more and the stronger the better billy really good charts thanks so much swetz thx billy :) swetz today, I was looking to short the market as it approached 1060 in the SnP swetz but if you look at the 10 min chart of SPY today swetz this is NO trigger bar swetz buyers continues to ABSORB the sellers all day long swetz continued Larry quailty site and classes billy yes swetz the SnP is currently in a congestion area right now Trader_1 left. swetz but until I see some tight action and then a wide range down bar that closes poorly with volume swetz there is NO trigger to go short to me swetz I am sharing with you MY RULES swetz YOUR RULES for entering markets may be DIFFERENT swetz that is FINE!!!!! swetz I am no guru, I am only sharing with you the RULES that have helped me be profitable swetz that have helped me keep my emotions in check Papa left. billy such a good point on rules got to run GN swetz gn Billy billy left. swetz thx Larry :) swetz okay any questions? swetz all done roger thx Gary_Fullett great lecture Gary_Fullett and chats streve abc163 thx swetz and gary jmoz thanks swetz.... really good Randy Thanks swetz, very informative. Gary_Fullett doesnt get much bette rthan his charts Phil how do you handle V shape type bottom(ie our mar 9th low in snp) and tops where you do not see that sideway tight action? do you just pass on this? Gary_Fullett especialy in the new sleeter Gary_Fullett u dont ahve to catch the lows phil Gary_Fullett u cna wait for a retest and see the action for entry swetz Phil - I totally missed the first month of advance from the SnP low swetz in fact, I went short a couple of times and either lost money or made very little Fred left. Bill left. C left. wa left. swetz so there will be times when I will just miss the move Q left. Greg left. Phil got it. understand. thanks. Gary_Fullett if u miss it u miss it Gary_Fullett there are ther trains swetz in hindsight, there were stocks that were in a buying position and I saw them swetz in March Gary_Fullett most traders that are expericneed probabaly miss more than they catch Gary_Fullett they see it but not alwasy a way to trade it to thier rules swetz BUT, the weakness in the SnP BIASED me and I MISSED those TRADES Jason left. swetz that is a MISTAKE I MADE Rick left. Gary_W left. Ron_N left. Frank left. Phil great insight. thanks Hal_C left. swetz but as traders, we ALWAYS learn and try to improve Dan left. swetz :) Eve left. Gary_Fullett ALWAYS NO ON SI NEARLY PERFECT Gary_Fullett its always a work in progress F_Cook left. Gary_Fullett left.