Gary_Fullett joined. warren joined. Gary_Fullett good evening Gary_Fullett there are a few stock charts for tonight Gary_Fullett that havent been sent yet Gary_Fullett i was away this afternoon and didnt get a chance for kelly to send wyatt joined. John so when kely come sback shortly John the charts will be posted? Gary_Fullett yes Gary_Fullett she should be back in 30 min or so Gary_Fullett steve has some charts he wanted to show Gary_Fullett okay DaveM NO SOUP FOR U !!!! gary Gary_Fullett so in the mean time DaveM :) Gary_Fullett lol Gary_Fullett are there any questiosn comments Gary_Fullett sinc etommorw is the last day of the yr Gary_Fullett i didnt do alot personally the last few minths due to volaity Gary_Fullett but.. Gary_Fullett plan to in 2009 Gary_Fullett becaus emarkets ar enow going inot more tradign ranegs Gary_Fullett and the risk to reward is better mark joined. Gary_Fullett in makrets today u ahve high risk high reward Gary_Fullett so why be in that envireoment DaveM haven't been in day chat lately gary but was wondering if you discussed yesterday's action on snp responded well to the RTL 12/17 and 12/19 hi's?? Gary_Fullett so better to define risk more Gary_Fullett well lets discus sit Gary_Fullett the market held the 853 area Gary_Fullett which was the supor tline as well as a rtl line Gary_Fullett but we are still in a trading range DaveM y DaveM gotta test the 917 again DaveM spring yesterday also or the 960 support Gary_Fullett right Gary_Fullett we have many trading ranegs within trading ranges Gary_Fullett and what may appear to be strngth Gary_Fullett intraday may be a reaction to a small support DaveM eh had a joc today of one of them Gary_Fullett or resitance DaveM of 880 creek and a intraday test Romulus joined. Gary_Fullett well w ewent above the 878-881 area Gary_Fullett this was the nearby support DaveM vol not too hot but growing a bit...still lo though Gary_Fullett and held the 868 area Gary_Fullett but this week tend sto eb an up week Gary_Fullett the market had its tax selling eysterday and trying to react highe rlast 2 days of the yr mark gary do you think we will get follow thru tomorrow Gary_Fullett this is wher emany get trapped Gary_Fullett they buy a rally in a trading range Gary_Fullett and they have a smal lead only yo get washe dout Gary_Fullett i do mark yes Gary_Fullett maybe to the 900 area Gary_Fullett 904 mark so then this would be a good monthly bar then DaveM key lately is not to hang on to anything too long...way to volitlie....gotta get in and out at restance or near since demand really hasn't shown up much Gary_Fullett well the monthly bar after being ahmmered the past few months Gary_Fullett needs alot more work Gary_Fullett today was classical absorption DaveM y mark but potentially a short term correction DaveM we have cause enough to push 1000 if we can push through 917 mark don't get me wrong I am still extremely bearish just would like to see a little more of a correction to the upside Gary_Fullett well possibly mark stocks tend to ahve a v bototm with volume DaveM imho we are in a accum TR here for a few months Gary_Fullett u dont ahve this now mark would like to see 1050 area Gary_Fullett well above 918 area DaveM though i suspect a retest of the los is gonna come at some point.... Gary_Fullett i think u will se 1005 Gary_Fullett then 1050 Gary_Fullett i would agree mark Gary_Fullett but if bearish Gary_Fullett look for a palc eto sell vs a plac eto buy Gary_Fullett because if u look to buy in a bear market Gary_Fullett this lessens your chances of making money DaveM well marj 1003 is the 1/2 wat rally from the sep swing hi of 1260 Gary_Fullett so w enee dot watch the weekly and monthly supports Gary_Fullett tommorw Gary_Fullett paints alot of pictures for us Gary_Fullett the close DaveM so 1000 is certainly a good place to rally to and begin looking to short if action is right mark markets are never this forgiving would not allow money to be made without causing pain to some bear market moves to the upside are mostly violent up moves mark sorry for no commas Gary_Fullett well the trend is key Gary_Fullett right DaveM agree....market needs to punish more longs i think b4 we can really move up Gary_Fullett so w emust be aware of this Gary_Fullett does this action appear to be ending action Gary_Fullett for a bull run mark no Gary_Fullett thats the most important questiosn Gary_Fullett a wyckoff student must ask itself DaveM if you look at the buying tests (9) we have a few checked off Gary_Fullett thats what w ealways must ask Gary_Fullett when we have some evidenc eof ending action Gary_Fullett but is it ending action for trend DaveM 1. downside target reached DaveM 2. SC Gary_Fullett correct Gary_Fullett do u ahve a sc? DaveM 3. supply TL broken to the upside (sept swing hi) DaveM so this may not be fulfilled quite yet DaveM 4. vol increasing on rallies and deminishing on reactions DaveM 5/ higher hi's higer lo's Gary_Fullett very good DaveM though we've been drifting sideways past couple weeks Gary_Fullett the sc needs to eb on a alrger tiem frame Gary_Fullett to have a major trend change DaveM agree with all that gary DaveM i don't believe we are at the bottom yet but trying to sequence through the wyckoff process is suppose... DaveM where's kelly with that chart my fingers are sore...LOL Gary_Fullett the 9 buying tests ar eimornat Gary_Fullett and not everythign may be classical Gary_Fullett so Gary_Fullett w eahve to see DaveM y Gary_Fullett the action on the alrgets tiem frame we cant to dtermine the major trend Gary_Fullett the daily may be turning up Gary_Fullett but the longer tiem frame swill take a long time to turn up Gary_Fullett traders want to see eaerly strngth Gary_Fullett and say Gary_Fullett the major trend is up Gary_Fullett BUT it sint Gary_Fullett but they want to buy the bototm Gary_Fullett so they sell a Bototm DaveM hell the TL on the weekly is damn near vertical Gary_Fullett many traders Gary_Fullett are too quick' Gary_Fullett to call major trned changes Gary_Fullett even though they may be right Gary_Fullett most times due to lack of cause Gary_Fullett they are early Gary_Fullett and if u follow the 3 pronciples Gary_Fullett then u wont get inot this problems Gary_Fullett in the newlstter today Gary_Fullett i wrote on cause Gary_Fullett a great article was sent DaveM i don't have the secrect handshake for that :) NL DaveM lol Gary_Fullett no secret ahndshake lol Gary_Fullett so w emust Gary_Fullett be very careful with trend Gary_Fullett because Gary_Fullett the strrngth Gary_Fullett that u may see maybe simply a short cvering rally Gary_Fullett or a correction Gary_Fullett and the diffrence DaveM right G Gary_Fullett may be subtle Gary_Fullett BUT Gary_Fullett if we look at the 9 buying Rich left. Rich joined. Gary_Fullett or sellign tests Gary_Fullett to eb fulfilled Gary_Fullett thats make s for mor eof a proper trade Gary_Fullett u wont catch the bototm Gary_Fullett but u will have more of a proper trade.. DaveM right G but it could give you enough confidence to buy a rally or a JOC of say the 917 level...you know that's about really all i c swetz joined. Gary_Fullett well that would be meanng ful Gary_Fullett for the daily trend Gary_Fullett do u think that 918 turns the monthly trend up DaveM if u r bearish but u wish to trade rallies you need some type of tests to give you that confidence to dip the toe Gary_Fullett ? Gary_Fullett hey steve Gary_Fullett kelly will eb home shortly yo send your charts DaveM hey steve swetz ::ninja ::coolsmile howdy folks Gary_Fullett also Gary_Fullett look at othe rmarkets DaveM no g Gary_Fullett to confirm the stocks swetz howdy Dave !!!!!!!! and Gary !!!!!!!!! Gary_Fullett tuen up Gary_Fullett becaus ea stock rlaly Gary_Fullett will affect the dolalr Gary_Fullett and othe rcommdities and amrkets Gary_Fullett we are talkign stocks DaveM naz-no, dow-no, russ - no Gary_Fullett trend and ending action steve Gary_Fullett and trned Gary_Fullett short and onger term DaveM oh i c comods Gary_Fullett so w eneed to look at the 9 buying tests swetz ah okay Gary_Fullett and w eneed ot see the supply dry up and demand be the in control Gary_Fullett steve thoughts on stocks? swetz stocks - the longer term trends are all pointing down swetz daily trend looks to be sideways or tilting down to me Gary_Fullett we were discusisng that swetz but hourly trend is sideways and the rally from yesterday and continuing today is a rally from a support of this small TR swetz 918-920 is resistance of this very small TR swetz based on today's close and the wider up bar, I would anticipate that the SnP will test this resistance in the next 2-3 days swetz if the bars quickly narrow and the position of the close starts to be near the low end of the range, the market will be very vulnerable to supply swetz since the longer term trends are all pointing down and individual stock leadership is still poor swetz however, if we get some more upward EOM tomorrow and the SnP FAILS to react with any strength from the 918-920 area, I would expect that 1000 will be tested next swetz to me, 1000 is formidable resistance swetz and depending HOW the SnP approaches that level would tell us if we have a great opportunity to go short Gary_Fullett very imp swetz I would not mind at all going long if the market could quickly reach 918-920 area and then show no ability to react with important selling swetz but I would be quick to take profits if I saw any indication at all that the market is running out of demand as the important 1000 level is approached swetz at that point, I would be more focused on going short Gary_Fullett we have to see Gary_Fullett if the rallies show more strngth thnen the pullbacks Gary_Fullett and to see if the supply has dried up Gary_Fullett untill that happnes the trend remains down Gary_Fullett the 60 min chart i sent today Gary_Fullett told a story for today swetz yep, we got to respect the trend :) Gary_Fullett above 918 would be good for bulls Gary_Fullett any stocks u see steve that show promise Gary_Fullett as we await kelly Gary_Fullett the charst will eb sent in 5 minutes Gary_Fullett kelly is back Gary_Fullett so she will send steves charts now Gary_Fullett and u can reteieve them swetz cool, about time the better 1/2 showed up :) Gary_Fullett always Gary_Fullett lol Gary_Fullett any indstry u like steve or hate/> swetz the gold group is very strong swetz select medical stocks are doing well swetz the commercial schools group is also strong swetz as well as airlines believe or not swetz a couple of stocks that I sent for tonight's class swetz CMP is in the chemicals group swetz chemical stocks like it when oil goes down warren left. warren joined. swetz NWPX is the other stock swetz chart that I sent tonight swetz they both seem to have a pretty good Wyckoff story SDW joined. swetz and have leadership characteristics that past winning stocks have historically had swetz are the charts posted Gary? swetz quit shoveling snow and answer my question Gary :) Gary_Fullett they are being sent now Gary_Fullett 1 more min swetz I got my stopwatch going :) Gary_Fullett lol Gary_Fullett a southern stop watch lol warren left. Gary_Fullett how do the finabcials Gary_Fullett financials swetz lol Gary Gary_Fullett the charts are there Gary_Fullett please retrieve them swetz yippeee charts baby!!!!! warren joined. swetz get them while you can :) DaveM like a kid w/ candy DaveM lol swetz lol warren I got mine! Gary_Fullett yeah swetz Warren gets extra reward for being 1st in line :) Gary_Fullett ] sory abut tonight Gary_Fullett i was out Gary_Fullett and didnt get back till 6 pm Gary_Fullett then kelly had a meeting warren ::smile Gary_Fullett and i got steves chats after she left Gary_Fullett so the charts ar ethere ty steve swetz Gary got to take laps for being late, Warren gets to watch :) Larry thank you! got em too Larry lol Tommy what is address for charts? Romulus http://www.ltg-trading.com/20081230.pdf Gary_Fullett ty rhonda swetz http://www.ltg-trading.com/20081230.pdf Tommy thx mark left. swetz Romulus is quick mark joined. mark left. mark joined. DaveM i gott run guys....great chatting happy nyear DaveM :) swetz take care Dave :) Gary_Fullett dave u cant leave now Gary_Fullett chart tiem Romulus Happy New Year Dave ~ DaveM mom's calling...:) DaveM LOL swetz lol swetz have a Happy New Year Dave swetz rule #1 - always listen to Mom :) DaveM when they ask what did you do for New Years I say "went to bed 10 minutes early" LOL swetz lol DaveM :) DaveM happy hunting DaveM left. swetz okay folks, lets go to the chart at the top swetz I didnt come across this stock until yesterday swetz I actually never heard of it until yesterday swetz but it seems to tell a good Wyckoff story swetz if we start analyzing this chart swetz from the very high volume bar in late July swetz we see that the close was far away from the high of that bar and the volume was the highest at the time swetz the range of that bar was very wide as well swetz it had all the characteristics of a potential BC swetz especially when we have an indication of Preliminary Supply in late June swetz with the high volume, lack of upward progress, low close with more downside progress to follow swetz so after the potential BC, we get an Automatic Reaction, and then a couple of Secondary Tests crapgame left. swetz once the BC, AR, and ST have been formed swetz we can draw tentative support/resistance lines to frame our new TR swetz eventually in late September, we get a good example of an UT after Distribution swetz notice that the volume on the UTAD was much lower than the BC volume swetz also notice that on the very next bar, sellers totally negated the upward progress that the buyers attempted to make on the UT swetz if this stock was ready to JOC, we should NOT see such a quick reversal back down on a relatively wide bar swetz also, we know the general market is very weak in September so we get another clue that the action is more than likely an UTAD Rich left. Rich joined. swetz so as the reaction from the UTAD progresses swetz we can see volume INCREASING swetz and notice the POSITION of the CLOSE on those bars swetz at the low EACH DAY swetz telling us that sellers are in total control of this stock swetz supply overwhelms the buyers swetz how else could the close be at the low if this was not so swetz this reaction eventualls Breaks Under the Ice level swetz on wide spread and increasing volume swetz and continues to follow-through to the downside swetz further confirming that a BUI is occurring and not a spring swetz the stock continues down swetz as the markdown phase unfolds swetz but then we see something interesting start to occur swetz the rally from the bar labeled PS Preliminary Support swetz has some upward EOM and volume increases swetz now the trend is still DOWN swetz but we are seeing a warning that the markdown phase maybe nearing an end swetz in real-time, I would not know this is PS but I would notice the change of behavior in this buying wave _ joined. swetz the rally from the PS bar failes to reach the ICE level before reversing back down Gary_Fullett imp stuff on this chart swetz leaving behind BEARISH SPACING swetz which tells us to expect at least a test of the PS low and probably a lower low is coming swetz we get the lower low swetz but once again, we see an indication of some demand swetz the rally from the low had a large increase in volume swetz trades above the supply TL that I have drawn swetz I took this rally to be what Wyckoff calls VOB - Volume off the Bottom swetz so then I start putting the stopping action potential together swetz if we can get a ST of the VOB rally swetz then we have got some confirmed stopping action which is one of the Wyckoff buying test swetz sure enough after the rally from the October low, we get a ST swetz once again, we see an indication of demand appearing swetz each time this stock approaches the $20 area, some important buyers swetz are stepping in to overcome whatever supply is availablee swetz available swetz also this ST happens ABOVE the supply TL that was broken a few weeks ago swetz so now we have decsive break of the supply TL to the upside, we have confirmed stopping action and the buying waves seem to have greater EOM and more volume compared to the selling waves swetz so we are seeing some more Wyckoff buying tests being passed swetz as this TR unfolds swetz as this stock rallies from the ST, we can see higher highs and higher lows being made which passes 2 more of the Wyckoff buying tests swetz which leads to a gap up on increased volume to the Creek area swetz which could be called a potential SOS swetz after this stock showed no ability to react from an obvious resistance area at $35 or so swetz we can see a little UT develop swetz now if this TR was really distribution and the strong hands were really distributing swetz to the weak hands swetz wouldnt this area be an excellent place for the strong hands to unload their stocks to the weak hands swetz BUT swetz look at the REACTION after the UT swetz the volume is very low, the ranges are very narrow swetz where is the selling swetz this stock is at its creek area and doesnt react very much while the general market is in a bear market swetz showing excellent RELATIVE STRENGTH swetz another Wyckoff buying test is passed swetz by this time, we can see that a well-defined TR has developed which passes another Wyckoff buying test Romulus left. swetz the weak reaction from the UT can be a LPS swetz and a buying opportunity if I had seen it, I wish I did :( swetz but its okay swetz the last 2 bars have the characteristics of a potential JOC swetz huge volume and upward EOM as this stock rallies above CREEK swetz today's bar had extremely high volume but the bar narrowed which is a red flag swetz Wyckoff's law of effort vs. result comes into play swetz and warns that supply has entered this market swetz BUT if the reaction is WEAK swetz the next reaction swetz as it backs up to the creek area, we got ourselves a buying opportunity swetz I would be looking at the 1/2 point between the LPS low and the potential JOC high and the support TL that I have drawn as my area to consider taking a long position swetz ASSUMING swetz it reacts in a WEAK manner swetz if NWPX fell to the support line tomorrow, there is no way I would be a buyer swetz because the reaction is NOT weak swetz support TLs and 1/2 points are only areas to look for low risk entries swetz but HOW a stock arrives at those areas is what ultimately determines if a trade is warranted swetz understand? :) warren y swetz I knew I could count on you Warren :) swetz the next chart is CMP warren ::biggrin swetz it is the leader in the chemicals industry group Rich left. swetz here is another stock that broke ICE with downward EOM which led to a markdown phase swetz back in early September swetz as the markdown phase progressed, the angle of the downtrend steepened swetz which my 2 TL channels show swetz from the SMI course and from David Weis and from Bill McLaren c Yes swetz they all teach that once a stock fails to reach a supply TL in a downtrend or a support TL in an uptrend, we can redraw our trend channel to reflect this action swetz this is what I have done on this chart swetz we can see a very large increase in volume at the first of October swetz and a close of the low swetz if you want to call this action a SC, that is fine by me, I just called it PS swetz labels are that important, they just help describe the action swetz are NOT that important swetz as this downtrend progresses swetz we can see that each selling wave thrust makes less and less downside progress swetz which is what Wyckoff calls a SOT swetz at the October low, CMP makes very little downside progress swetz before we once again see evidence of VO B swetz VOB swetz we get great upward EOM and volume increases substantially swetz this buying wave is by far the strongest of any buying wave during this downtrend swetz in fact, this buying wave rallies above both supply TLs swetz after this buying wave, notice the lack of selling on the ST of the VOB rally swetz also notice how much volume has decreased on this selling wave compared to the other selling waves swetz see how demand is beginning to take control over supply swetz after the ST, we get a SPRING of the ST low swetz which offered a buying entry for a swing trade swetz the rally from the SPRING tested the CREEK level at $60 which served as ICE a few months ago swetz Wyckoff often mentions that Ice often becomes Creek on a subsequent test swetz this chart shows that principle at work swetz now what is important to watch now swetz is judging the REACTION from this Creek area swetz notice that the reaction is not making much downside progress swetz in fact, the reaction has held ABOVE the 1/2 point that I have drawn (it is the middle dashed line) swetz also, volume has decreased swetz this action has many of the characteristics that Wyckoff described in Chapter 7 of the SMI course swetz that is indicative of absorption swetz I am personally watching this stock very closely swetz I am actually watching the hourly bars unfold swetz what I am specifically looking for is HOW CMP approaches $60 Gary_Fullett very imp swetz if CMP reacts first before reaching $60, and I see a little spring develop swetz of the little support area of this absorption area swetz at the little swetz I will very likely go long swetz especially if the general market begins acting more bullishly swetz if CMP goes to $60 first and basically goes sideways a couple of days in a tight range, I would not mind at all buying a rally above those tight range bars as long as the general market was acting bullishly as well swetz so to me, the $60 area and the support level of this absorption area are where I will be looking to take a trade swetz anything in between these 2 points is just "noise" to me swetz okay all done :) swetz questions? answers? comments? warren (applause) swetz lol Gary_Fullett exceelent Gary_Fullett very very good stuff Gary_Fullett i thought a stock night to end the yr Gary_Fullett is important Gary_Fullett to get a feel of the action c Fantastic Gary_Fullett good work steve Gary_Fullett i want to wish everyone a healthy Ne wyr Gary_Fullett without health we have 0 Gary_Fullett i think next yr swetz I think we have all done pretty well here Gary_Fullett will eb a great yr for us swetz I see many brokerage statements and retirment statements Gary_Fullett i think the ranegs we will go inot will allow exceleent trading opportunties swetz many of those folks are down over 50% for the year Gary_Fullett right Tommy what would be a medical stock to watch for similar action? swetz I think we have been successful in dodging all of that swetz Tommy - THOR is high on my list Tommy ty swetz GXDX needs to be watched closely as well swetz it had an important day today swetz it rallied over a minor creek with upward EOM and above average volume which is rare during this time of year when volume is very low swetz so somebody is buying it :) Gary_Fullett those will be monotore din the new sletter i suspect. swetz yes sir, NL folks already know about them :) Gary_Fullett correct swetz they have been on the list for a while Gary_Fullett staying in cash Gary_Fullett for the move down has been wonderful Gary_Fullett says alot swetz it is rare to have only 1 bull cycle and not a really good one at that for a whole year swetz even in a bear market, you will get 2 bull cycles swetz a year Gary_Fullett right.. Rich joined. swetz but this bear market has been so strong swetz this one is either going to be much worse based on how fast it has fallen so far or we have many months of sidways action to allow the new leaders step up to the plate swetz I prefer the many months of sideways action because we will see bull cycles during that time :) swetz oh well, if we stay with the trend and be mindful of the trend over multiple timeframes we should be fine swetz Wyckoff was fine during the Great Depression so we should be fine during this go around :) swetz just go to not let our emotions get involved swetz we have a great method to follow, it is up to us to actually follow it :) swetz okay, I want to wish EVERYONE a HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!! warren thanks Gary and Steve! GN all and wishes for a much better 2009! Gary_Fullett ty wrren swetz dont trade and drink :) Gary_Fullett it is people like u Gary_Fullett that make shtis great Gary_Fullett 2009 swetz u2 Warren!!!!!!! :) Gary_Fullett will be better for all Gary_Fullett i think we get better markest to trade in 2009 Tommy thx Steve Gary_Fullett more clear cut Gary_Fullett with risk to reward Gary_Fullett cant trade swetz my pleasure Tommy, is fun for me too :) Gary_Fullett when risk is greater than reward Gary_Fullett it helps us all to spill our our thoghts Gary_Fullett and steve is top notch Gary_Fullett we may be volatile in 2009 Gary_Fullett but i think w eget accunstomd to it swetz take care Gary, I hope everyone has a wonderful trading year next year Gary_Fullett also we knwo what it will lead too Gary_Fullett i only wish the bext for all swetz good night to all Gary_Fullett any q? Gary_Fullett amos next week Gary_Fullett night steve ty swetz now where is my wine at? :) swetz cy Gary :) Gary_Fullett whine or wine lol warren ::wine swetz both ;) swetz lol Gary_Fullett lol swetz left. Gary_Fullett good health ot all Gary_Fullett night Gary_Fullett left.