Gary_Fullett joined. Jerry Gary any charts tonight? Gary_Fullett amos sent charts Gary_Fullett and i will tommorw send mine carnac jerry, yes posted by amos for tonite. Doc_K y on garys site handles joined. DaveM joined. Amos joined. handles good evening folks handles hi amos Amos Hi Gary_Fullett amos shalom joel evening all handles joelllllllllllllllllll handles my baccarat buddy joel ::ninja Jerry Where: not in email, Joes sight or archives. joel all I did was watch Peter hi Amos & everyone Gary_Fullett on this site Gary_Fullett he is a voyeur carnac jerry-archives. joel only when you bend over G Amos Tonight is another one of those depressing sessions talking about troubles in trading land Art joined. Gary_Fullett well u roomed with kiran Gary_Fullett so u were the talk of reno joel LOL Art hi everyone handles LOL handles hi art Amos As you know- I get a lot of letters and correspondence from various sources. Most of them not worth spending a moment on Jerry Okay did a refreash and lo so it was. joel smoking a Minature Macandudo ~ after this one only one left in the pack Amos but some come from intelligent people and from time to time it is interesting to gloss over and see what others think Jerry Another Art Bell Spwcial Amos...LOL Amos Since this is not a usual corner in the history of markets-- it is interesting to see what other think handles nice az joined. joel left. Amos I am going to share with you a letter from Alan Farley. Not someone I usually follow, but not a stupid fellow joel joined. Amos Here are a few sentences from a May letter. You be the judge leo hi everybody Jerry Alan Farley RealMoney.Com Amos 1. Multinational big-cap stocks are outperforming small-caps by a wide margin. This is a problem for technicians. straycat left. leo why? Amos 2. Traders know what a tough market this really is... Chris joined. wyatt joined. Amos 3....You 've gotten cut to shreds as technically sound stocks have ripped thru logical stop losses michal joined. Amos 4. We are also seeing a ton og "ganging" behavior... straycat joined. Amos 5. Seeing insane rallies, such as Amazon's 19 point slingshot leo it's true...i have the same experience here small caps otperforms bluechips Amos 6.Penny options and experts predict that electonically driven volume will expand from 4 billion to more than 130 billion daily transactions by 2010 joel dang Amos 7. First, we need to throw away our market depth screens, because the FAST MAJORITY OF VOLUME IS BEING HIDDEN FROM PUBLIC VIEW sk joined. Jerry fast = Vast Amos? Amos 8. There is a reason that institutions are recruiting top programmers from the nation's best colleges. They are hiring people to build algorithms that outthink human traders Amos like you and me Amos It was a long letter and I took only a few points I thought were interesting warren joined. Amos I have no idea if he is right or wrong-- this is not the issue (everyone is right once in a while) Amos but the fact that he is talking that way-- is important hugh joined. Jerry I have a book on the way on algorythems. Amos If you read a letter from May 27 in Boston Globe-- about John Henry ( I mentioned him before, he owns the Red Sox) carnac trend follower-john henry Amos It says that this great trend follower lost over 27% of his largest fund over the past three years. Amos What I am trying to show you is that this is indeed an intersting period Gary_W joined. Amos Farley is talking about ganging and algorithm traders-- and I talk about Kampo and other very large forces that gang to do in the market what they wish Amos I sent Gary 2-3 examples that may explain what I am saying Kumar joined. Amos I mentioned before that market feel as if they "KNOW" what side the public is on-- and they can and do punish those stops with vengeance. Amos The Wyckoff paradigm is supposed to identify the foot steps of such operators-- and Many times does it fine Amos I find that in the last few months-- it is failing ME. Amos Of course when a system fails a trader-- it does not mean it fails other traders who use the same system because of different time frames, different frame of mind, different expectations etc. Amos I will try to explain Alvin joined. Amos Farley mentions a sentence which I admit I do NOT understand-- he says on one hand that Electronic volume is expanding by leaps and bounds Amos and otoh he says that "vast majority of volume is bieng hidden from public view". Gary_Fullett amos a question please ? how do u feel it has failed you? Amos Since we follow volume so intensively in our trading-- I thought this is interesting and is the MAIN reason I broguth this letter to your attention Amos Gary, I will talk about it in the chart examples Gary_Fullett okay ty sorry Amos either volume is huge, or we are not aware of it. Amos He does not explain where is this volume hidden-- Amos but the fact that he mentions it is interesting Amos I told you that you CANNOT get true indication of OPTIONS volume--perhaps that is what he means-- his solution to that problem is .. and I quote: Amos "we need to jump back tyo the sidelines whenever price action defies the natural laws of supply and demand Amos end quote. DJ joined. Amos So, I am not alone in my feeling lately that markets are toying with me. Amos One of my most trusted models-- the thrust-- is being used by the market for a reversal pattern joel toying with you how ~ lack of follow through Amos I get the feeling that the public is using this. Jerry Anonymous stock purchases running up of large volume? hugh left. hugh joined. Larry joined. Amos Hard for me to accept--but recently this is a fact Jerry Then pulling out the rug days later, my experience. Amos One thing I cannot do is trade against my principles-- and therefore I find myself sitting hours in front of the computer NOT pressing the mouses-- even when I see something which works over 70% of the time Amos From years of experience-- I know that this cannot continue for ever-- and things must come back to more normal behavior-- but right now it is the situation Joe_Kl Ive actually remembered better ranges in 99 than some of this chop lately Amos It is quite amazing that with the strong trends we had recently-- a TREND FOLOWER PAR EXCELLENCE like John Henry is losing money-- How can that be? Jerry Exactly... Joe_Kl its been tough Amos I have no answer-- but it is noted Amos Trying to EXPLAIN such periods is futile. Same as trying to explain all squeezes-- while they take place between some giants-- you watch the chart as if it should follow normal precedents Jerry To me its like a carny barker, lots of promise, but no delivery. Amos then you realize that is is a tug war between huge forces that take no prisoners while they fight Amos but-- in the long run--things DO GET BACK to normal and the basic rules of Wyckoff come back to rule the field Amos Out of the 9 or so points I quoted from the letter-- most of them complain about DEVIATION from "normal" Amos When good traders ( I assume Farley is not a Bad one ) complain about losing money in the market and need to sit out a few hands-- this is usually a phase of the market when things really get out of hands--and some Amos MAJOR CHANGE is near Amos We are finishing May tmw and this is close to Half a year performanced. Amos So the Semi annual chart comes into effect next month. Joe_Kl Some of the traditional Vol reads seem skewed too past 60-90 days Amos My normal count of 55 bars indicating an end to a move-- are being extended or very close at hand-- but the market does not show any signs of stoppage. Mick joined. Amos There is ONLY ONE SOLUTION, folks-- WAIT PATIENTLY UNTIL YOU UNDERSTAND Amos It does not matter what you think tha market will do and what anyone says-- YOu simply MUST WAIT TO SEE CLEARLY SOMETHING you understand and only then act Amos If it means sitting out a few months-- so be it Jerry When the market goes full computerized the human element will no longer be in play. It will be "Mathematical Algorithms and Software." Amos For the HEALTH OF YOUR BUSINESS as a trader-- if you are in a DIFFICULT PERIOD-- NEVER PUSH THE RIVER Joe_Kl 60 days ago I'd average prob 3-7 trades a week, lately 1-3 every 10-14 days , and still having problems hitting pay dirt Amos If you do it== you will Lose. Not only the money-- losing money is the Least important damamge Amos LOSING CONFIDENCE and CLARITY OF SIGHT is much more important Joe_Kl Agree wyatt I agree Peter totaly agree Amos leo but we still loose confidense Amos If you keep watching the market, waiting for the fog to clear-- YOU WILL MAKE ALL THE MONEY BACK IN A JIFFY! leo by watching others making easy money Amos If you keep forcing yourself and being slapped-- You wiull NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MONEY WHEN THE TRAIN gets back on the rails leo but we don't Joe_Kl Yes must be patience, as tried and true will come back into groove Amos Look for a moment at the CANADIAN DOLLAR CHART Amos I have a true story about this chart Joe_Kl Thinking Weekly retest 9100-90.70 Amos About August - september of 2006 a friend of mine who is not a bad trader (not a magnificent one-- but not a bad one-- that is why I share ideas with him from time to time) said to me-- I AM SHORT THE CA BIG TIME Amos I looked at the chart and I DID NOT SEE DISTRIBUTION pattern and COULD NOT GO SHORT Amos During the november december period-- I saw the market steadily going down and I COULD NOT JOIN IT-- I Felt that it HAS NOT COMPLETED A TOP after 2-1/2 years really. Amos I wanted to only go long Amos Well when the canadian broke the low of 2006 in early 2007-- my inclination to LISTEN to important lows and highs-- KILLED ME-- I was convinced that the trend indeed has changeds and the CANADIAN is at BEST in a range Amos I told you that my definition of a trend is "SERIES OF RALLIES AND REACTIONS " and as long as you make HIGHER LOWS in an up trend-- the trend is UP Amos and as long as you make LOWER HIGHS in a down trend the trend is DOWN hugh left. Amos Canadian had a small rally in Feb, tested the 8500 lkevel and then started a CRAZY RALLY Amos Now Gary-- if you can tell me that this is WYckoff behavior-- then I take off my hat. Amos This is NOT a WYCKOFF classical behavior. This is HERD BEHAVIOR Chris left. Amos The ONLY WAY I CAN "EXPLAIN" the last 13 weeks rally in the canadian --is that WHOEVER IS PUSHING PRICES-- KNOWS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH STUPID MONEY ON THE SHORT SIDE Amos BTW, in currency forums-- during the whole rally-- YOU ONLY HEARD TRADERS WANTING TO SHORT IT. Amos My problem is the opposite. ALl the reaction I wanted to LONG THE CANADIAN., becuase I COULD NOT SEE A COMPLETE TOP being formed and I EXPECTED SOME KIND OF WYCKOFF SEQUENCE of a TOP. Amos But AFTER THE YEARLY CHART making a lower low-- I LOST MY CONFIDENCE and I COULD NOT GET MYSELF TO LONG THIS MARKET Amos This is true and sad story for me. hugh joined. Peter several of us where long near the lows... I for one got out to early, and couldn't find a good reentry Amos To tell you the truth-- I do not know what I could have done (Philosophy wise) to change this Amos If the canadian will be at 7500 in 3 years-- I will look back and "UNDERSTAND THINGS" better--but THere was NOTHING in my aresenal to convince me that the JANUARY 2007 break of the 2006 lows-- was bogus Mick2 joined. Amos Last week I , actually, offered a VERY GOOD METHOD TO FIX such a problem,-- simply JOINING THE "TREND" if you think so with an hourly or daily stop loss handles well there was if u r a fundamental guy Amos This is the answer to PETER's issue a minute ago Peter the safest entry was the confirmation of the spring on several timeframes as each occured handles a serious development handles thats caused the rally Amos BUT IT COULD NOT SOLVE MY PHILOSOPHICAL PROBME about the DEFINITION OF THE TREND handles even though u may not think news matters Amos handles-- I cannot trade fundamentally -- so it is a mooty point handles so i cant explain it from wyckoff perspective handles agree Jerry Techs will trump the fundalmentals, 99% of the time. Amos I am trying to share with you real problems in markets and try to find ways to OVERCOME THEM swetz Amos - doesnt the uptrend continue once CA made a new high on the quarterly chart on this current bar? Peter today's CD bar may signal a trend change...need to pay attention now Amos Suppoose I said to myself after the Canadian took out the high of February--Listen, at least from a WEEKLY swing point of view-- this has given you a buy signal-- just put two lousy contracts and follow them with a stop wyatt yes Amos That is basically what swetz just said Mick3 joined. David joined. Amos BUT in this case--since I had a "histroy" affair with that market-- since I refused to join the decline per my friends urging and reccommendation and since I Was SURE the trend is still up and THEN it BROKE the yearly low-- I LOST CONFIDENCE leo left. DaveM that;s my boy!!:) David hello everyone; excuse me Amos Amos All the analysis is worthless if you LOSE CONFIDENCE in your decision making kent joined. swetz hi David :) handles hi david Amos Folks this is the reality of trading and once in a whuile is will hit you Peter greetings David Alvin hi David David hi Steve, handles, peter, alvin Amos Hi David-- heard you knocked them dead in Reno warren ::smile David David hi warren David not really amos but it was a good time Gary_Fullett no amos a few survived lol kent Hi David swetz lol Gary Joe_Kl Hello David joel ::ninja Joe_Kl Digging Trenches class Amos Perhaps you can shed some of your input on this subject david Joe_Kl lol David hey kent leo joined. Amos I am bewailing periods of being out of synch with markets and how a trader deals with it Amos Peter said a minute ago the today in Canadian may have been a reveersal Amos Well, look at the Next chart I sent-- the Canadian Quarterly Amos You can see here a little clearer what screwed me Peter today's bar, lneed to see what happens next Amos The quartely bar 4 bars ago closed close to the high Amos To me this shows that demand is still in the market Amos The next 2 bars were, what you can call an "intra bar" correction and as long as the low of that large bar was intact-- I was looking for a signal to go long Amos I drew a horizontal bar at that low. swetz bar = line :) Amos Well, folks, once we broke that low- and it is very clear on the quarterly chart ( yes line-- but when you are in a bar you quite often do not MARIMBAH what you said) Peter the spring of that horizontal line was a long entry...a spring occured at 60 m daily, weekly bars also Amos You can say to me-- and this is IMPORTANT--AMOS, you IDIOT-- you had such a CLEAR THRUST ON THE QUARTERLY CHAART-- what prevented you from going long there? Joe_Kl some nice heavy vol daily CD nt going into a TL, after a Intermediate poss JOC Joe_Kl Me thinks come back to 9200 Joe_Kl 9100 Joe_Kl pretty strong Peter we're on the qtry chart now :) Amos Well--- for me this is problem because That break of that low-- has shaken my confidence in the trend and I could not pull the trigger on that thrust swetz lol Amos Amos What I am trying to share with you is that at TIMES-- when YOur definitiion of market trend and MARKET CONDITIONS--Can and WILL prevent you from doing the RIGHT THING Amos This is part of real trading. Amos When it happes once a month I do not mind David Amos, I can't understand why you would not look at a more sensitive chart before losing confidence in the market Amos When it happes more often-- I get clobbered. Amos David-- this is a very important issue-- and it has to do with one's peace of mind at a given period Jerry Amos you did what Jesse did, listened to "rumor" and did not go with what your gut told you. David whenever my mind is peaceful, I'm in trouble Amos Right now, or in the last few months-- my mind is boggled with large time frames. Perhaps because I think we are very close to major turning point Joe_Kl LOL Amos No David. I am sure you are joking-- Peace of mind-- not caring about the result of the next trade is very crucial to trading-- but I am sure you agree with that Mick left. David I see what you mean joel fear? Amos When you look at the qurterly bar of the canadian, btw, youi can see that trying to pinpoint a DAILY REVERSAL such as today-- as Peter pointed out-- is FUTILE Amos and can be very wrong Amos I come back to a crucial point that was alluded more than once in that Alan Farley's letter I quotted above. Amos It feels very real as if the markets are being toyed by very large forces that are more interested in HERD BEHAVIOR than market principles. Amos I cannot prove it to you-- but if you look at the next chart I sent-- the DJRW2==world markets sans the S and p Amos you may understand what I mean Amos Gary- if you can see in that quarterly chart WYCKOFF behavior== please ENLIGHTEN ME Amos Here is a market that drops straight down 13 weeks turns around and ralalies NON STOP 17 quarters (by now!) Amos I cannot handle V tops and bottoms Amos Simply because Wyckoof indoctrinated me to look for a PROCESS. Sometime PROCESS and TREND DO NOT JIVE handles AMOS....do u seriously trade a QRTLY chart??? Amos Wyckoff says that there is SEQUENCE OF EVENTS in which risk is transferred (asccumulation and distribution) Amos Trend should be those two phases where Mark up and Mark down occur-- well this chart of djrw2 shows very little of that sequende Amos handles-- I never remove my eye from the large trend because any time I do that it costs me money Amos During the day I trade 3 minute charts too Mick2 left. Joe_Kl Yeah but where was CD 99 all currencies ? joel not enough data to use a quarterly chart on and looking for process it seems to me handles ok i understand Joe_Kl Diff Phases here Joe_Kl Monthly Joe_Kl Yearly David what is djrw2? Gary_Fullett dow jones Peter Is this not part of the selection process? just avoid charts that don't make sense imho... rbob - unleaded weekly is one of the wost...cannot see how to trade it Amos What I am trying to say that this chart-- discribing world markets is NOT what you call NORMAL chart. joel how many bars normally form the process in any timeframe Amos You explain to me how can John Henry lose 27% in such a market? swetz Dow Jones World stock index Amos Who is making all this money? Amos Is public on the long side? David thks swetz ::smile Joe_Kl Amos I dont think anyone is kicking any ass in these babies ( ANY ) consistantly, past quarter Amos Do you know many people who are long all that time? Amos I don't Amos Why? Amos Because, naturally I always look for TESTING of corners Joe_Kl Banks are swetz I guess just mutual funds Amos handles I do Joe_Kl Long Joe_Kl Currencies run by banks David They aren't long because they watch too closely and think too much handles all of my clients are long all of the time handles they rarely would trade on their own leo wyckoff process can hppen in a short time...i think the problem is the cause and effect din't work well or we don't have good eye Jerry Dow-Jones World Stock Index, Hah, you bet me swetz LOL Joe_Kl The 4 year trend majors, stocks, metals UP Joe_Kl DX down swetz ::smile Jerry Joe_Kl Entering Nervana Joe_Kl Soon Peter I understand why some are long...but who is taking the short side all this time? aren't they worn out yet? Amos Now handles said something very crucial-- it is true that MOST FUNDs including Chinese traders are Long ALL THE TIME handles my traders are canadian Joe_Kl As old Dick says handles lol handles not chinese Amos This is why we KNOW that TIME FOR DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH is not so far in the future! Joe_Kl Bush office till 08 Chinese Olympics 08 handles u try telling a client that they should sell their cdn banks Joe_Kl Says alot handles they would never do it handles ever handles they laugh Amos This, I admit, is ONE OF MY HINDRENCES--Knowing that this cannot continue for too long-- is dangerous because ONCE IN A WHILE-- it DOES! David Prechter, in a recent letter, stated the shorts will soon get market justice Joe_Kl Thats his 3 year mantra now Amos Look at the next chart which is the DAILY chart of the same product Gary_Fullett in stocks david? swetz but wasn't this same stuff discussed in late 1990s Amos and stocks continued to rally for a few more YEARS Joe_Kl Or is it 4 Joe_Kl lol David yes, gary Gary_Fullett thanx david Amos this is another example of market behavior that I find BUFFLING! David can you imagine talking about justice Gary_Fullett he may be right eventually lol Joe_Kl Yep Joe_Kl Eventually Joe_Kl Conquer the crash was written 02 ?? handles eventually we are all right Joe_Kl LOL swetz interesting use of term David joel no justice no peace ~ poor guy Amos We have that famous or infamous 2-27-march drop of 5 days. handles i guess prechter is a perma bear....who's been skinned Amos market closes at the LOW! The next rally is about 50% aof the decline and I expect a test ofa the low handles interesting that 3.8% of the NYSE volume is short these days.....very high number and they have been getting hammered...... Joe_Kl I think after China host Olympics and George steps down, maybe get ready for longer term reversals Amos we get 2 days reaction that CLOSES ON THE LOW, we rally the next day and we NEVER LOOK BACK handles highest figure since 98 Joe_Kl just a theory Amos Tell me-- where and on WHAT PRINCIPLE do you go long this chart on the daily basis? Joe_Kl lol Amos If you tell me , once we took out Feb high-- you have to be long-- I CANNOT Amos WHY? becuase there is NO CAUSE DaveM i notice this market didn't exhibit a spring as many of our did...snp, etc. on 3/14 Joe_Kl Handles Pretch and Elliot Company all been bears since 1090-1120 Amos The P&F chart is ONE cloumn, or at most 3 coumns reversal swetz Amos - could we not take a PnF count across the 25000 line? Amos Sure,. looking back you can tell me that the REAL CAUSES Comes from MUCH LOWEr-- but at the time of the decline- IU EXPECTD A PROLONGED CAUSE BUILDING and there was NONE Joe_Kl When in a normal market does Dow blast away days apon days Joe_Kl without good brethers Amos swetz==zilch count handles joe......the point is that there is a huge contingency of traders who are short this mkt......and they are getting creamed everyday now......and the number is at record levels........we used to call that a WALL of WORRY that the mkt will climb........its frickin obvious what is happening here Joe_Kl Just the WAY it is Joe_Kl We addapt Joe_Kl Or Die Amos Folks., the particular example is NOT IMPORTANT Joe_Kl Its like a Squeeze Amos I am not trying to talk about the Candian dollar or the world stock indexes=-- I care about the GENERAL principles and the IDEAS behind this as traders Jerry Wow, I haven't hears "ziltch" since the 50s. handles anyone in here BULLISH stocks???????????? Joe_Kl But rem we were higher in SP500 leo1 joined. Joe_Kl Yet Joe_Kl Before break Amos If I CANNOT LEARN about myself, about the market and about the interaction of the two in various phases-- then I am not a real trader joel If CM begins accumulation on climactic move~ and subsequent market action reveals no more supply ~ why the need to cause ? Amos I only want to LEARN FROM MISTAKES and be able to COPE WITH THEM NEXT time such behavior occurs handles see no bulls in stocks......weez going higher! Peter the current dow feels like the nasd of 1999, either join the up trend or wait for better clues if you want to short Joe_Kl Amos Obstain until recognizible traits conform / return more to "Tradible" status ? Joe_Kl Pick spots Joe_Kl Stick in move Joe_Kl What else can we do ? Amos Again the idiotic methodology of simply jumping on the market with a trailing stop-- would have worked like a CHARM becuase the market NEVER RETRACED ENOUGH to catch your stop Amos But this is HINDSIGHT Joe_Kl Yep DaveM agrue with the tape i suppose...lol Amos During the ascent-- at all time I am afraid of what I think should be a "NORMAL" actions of testing and Cause building handles i would like to know who is bullish snp in here.......who is buying this in here? Peter true, that is a good lesson, and may work well in reverse at some point in the future :) handles i bet no one Joe_Kl Im not buying Handles but may if 2 closes back above 1530 Joe_Kl Weekly can see 1600 Joe_Kl 1660 Joe_Kl lol handles so why do u think this mkt is bullish......its obvious by the behavior in here leo2 joined. Joe_Kl Its UP Joe_Kl lol handles everyone and their mother is bearish public wise Amos So what I am trying to say is that when the market is in a phase such as we are in the last few months-- and it is just GOING ONE WAY OR ANTOHER without paying much attention to "Normal " process of testing and cause building Joe_Kl So they punish more kent trend is definately up, H Joe_Kl Until the Bears give up Amos Your ASSUMPTIONS about market behavior can be VERY HARD on a trader Joe_Kl Then break handles so why arent u bullish Kent? Larry i own a few stocks David left. DaveM true amos... leo2 so if it happened...when the cm take their money Joe_Kl Handles you ever see Dow Up 21/21 handles i own a lot of stocks too......would i buy more here....nope....yet they keep going higher..... Joe_Kl its wild kent I prefer the short side of most of what I trade, just me, lol Amos The reason why Farley is complaining that many Good traders lose money is because they have a certain set of expectations that are being shattered handles joe...in 1998.....the TSX was up everyday for 6 months...... Joe_Kl Yes handles i used to come in to the office and laugh Joe_Kl Dot.com itus Joe_Kl This is back to there Joe_Kl after 50% DaveM left. Amos We all know that EXPECTATIONS are killers and way back I tried to fight with you how errroneous it is to try to PREDICT tha market-- Joe_Kl break Jerry See you answered your own question handles. We are in a bull market. handles it was messed up.....but it happens......because many dont beleiev it.....when they do it will be over......we arent there yet Amos Well-- we ALL DO IT and once in a while this can be very difficult to deal with Joe_Kl I can believe it joel expectations being shattered ~ expectations that have been formed by manipulated market action or their read of the fundementals not syncing with market action Amos Look at lumber-- the last chart I sent Amos How do you participate in this rally? Joe_Kl What Im having problem believing is no regular Pit Stops Joe_Kl along the way up Amos What is Wyckoffish about lubmer in the last 13 days? Joe_Kl lol handles the fact that everyone hates it..... handles lol Joe_Kl Peter called it Peter another tough chart lumber...needed to be long at the low..was a shortening of thrust (downside)....can't get in when it goes limit up.. swetz Amos - in lumber, was there not a SOT on decreasing volume on this chart at the bottom? Amos How many people in the room are long lumber during this rally? handles after the fact swetz Amos This is another example of a market that can behave in a very 'irrational" way Joe_Kl All I know is this, and Gary, Amos, David, been at this longer, Guys its been TOUGH ASS TRADEN, it WILL cLEAR UP handles no one Jerry Don't play lumber, coffee, etc... swetz and then demand entered due to the lack of supply Peter today is tested the bottom of daily creek.. so lumber will likely be in a TR now Joe_Kl Conserve capital swetz I dont trade lumber Jamie :) handles good Joe_Kl Pick your spots handles its bs Amos Who made money in lubmer? Peter exactly Swetz, that's what I saw also :) swetz :) Peter Amos If you read some stories about the lumber pit-- you know that it is a joke handles who's making money in CD EC and ES right now? Joe_Kl If I cant make money in ES this week, I damn sure aint traden thin ass lumber swetz I don't know anything about the lumber market though Joe_Kl lol Amos (Jack Sanders was trading lubmer and I read in the past stories how he used to take it limit up and limit down on his own) swetz lol Joe kent Peter traded it, didn't you Peter? Joe_Kl :) Joe_Kl Do like Kent scalp n go Amos I do not bring lumber for lumber sake Joe_Kl :) handles this room is the public.........who is bullish euro and CD and ES right now????? Peter yes Kent, I was in at the low, but to be honest I got shook out :( kent ok Peter I thought I would play a smaller TR, then it started going up limt :( swetz I have no positions in any handles :) but I may buy SnP tomorrow :) Joe_Kl Amos what ya think ? kent long term bullish euro handles well swetz....i learnt a lot tonight Amos I am saying that there are situations in the market that are very difficult==especiall for people like us who are LOOKING FOR RHYNE and REASON in market behavior and who are FOLOWING PRINCIPLES Peter got out on the first limit move after it went off limit handles just thinking out loud Amos What do you do? Jerry Ever since I got burned on the DM I don't play the cash market. kent I think we are near a near term low Joe_Kl Be cool, conserve capitol, pick spots, Amos As Joe said-- You must accept that there will be periods that you sit steal Joe_Kl wait Amos IDK=NM T Jerry AND that was in the mid 70s. Amos It is worth gold. handles steal = still wyatt handles I have an area .... 1575 area with ES we go there Amos I BREAK IT MYSELF Amos (i mean strong as steal_ Amos This is a business that tests y our mettle constantly Joe_Kl I am NOT use to nips and seriously I dont recall this type stuff in 5 years handles wyatt......the trend is up.... Peter I have the same point in mind Wyatt ;) Amos There is a reasong why 95% of the players lose Joe_Kl Its just tough handles and no one is bullish in here Joe_Kl Im bullish Joe_Kl Handles wyatt it is BUY the Cm likes to play games handles i think we go much higher now.....hearing eveyone in here..... Larry tom i'm buying 3 stocks Amos Because the energy and attention and hardwork that is required in CONTROLLING yourself is almos INHUMANE wyatt BUT not BUY sorry Joe_Kl Cant buy it here so over bought with ease handles i am loving this now joel when you sit out amos do you step away from the computer as well ~ to clear your head of do you watch and not participate/trade ? Amos There are periods that making money is very easy Joe_Kl Yes swetz :) wyatt Amos Then there are priods that NOT LOSING MONEY IS VERY DIFFICULT Joe_Kl And those periods will return kent swetz, do you have a pnf count for snp? Amos It is not a cliche when professional traders say that they trade mostly 4 months a year wyatt :) swetz Joe_Kl Futures Always come back to the norm leo2 but for public thi periods is very easy to make money Joe_Kl Eventually Joe_Kl :) leo2 everyting is up Amos NOT BECUASE THEY NEED VACATION-- but because they KNOW that there are periods in the market they CANNOT MAKE MONEY Joe_Kl My Question is this Joe_Kl Why no Corrections ? swetz 1550 SnP cash kent :) Amos and it is BETTER to STI AND WATCH and WAIT until the setup is good enoug.h Joe_Kl Doesnt CM want to add more lower ? kent ok, ty Joe_Kl Scale Peter excellent advise Amos Joe_Kl My greatest beef Wheres the Corrections Joe_Kl lol Amos Of course, when you sit every day in front of the screen-- it becomes more diffcult- the temptation to do something is amplified Joe_Kl Y Jerry 50x3 14 count kent. joel no corrections translates into will fall harder and further ? swetz so true Amos handles the corrections are not there thanks to the record number of shorts...... Joe_Kl lol leo1 left. wyatt Joe I don't think so HE is playing games now Joe_Kl by the way Hi Wyatt Joe_Kl :) Amos Well. If you are a professional driver and the rule says that you are not to drive more than 12 hours a day and take a nap every so many hours or miles Amos if you do not do it-- YOU WILL HAVE ACCIDENTS! wyatt Hey Joe :) leo left. Joe_Kl Amos Question leo2 but if u see the others break that rules and success? Joe_Kl Is the money in stocks from the East ? Amos I don't know abuot you-- but when I drive highways today )(In Israel) I spend more itme LOOKING IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR for large truck behinr me qne I try to see if the driver's eyes are OPEN SDW left. Joe_Kl lol Joe_Kl Have too over there Mick3 left. Amos Joe, there is so much money in the world today-- the main reason for the rally in the market is that the DEMAND OF NEW money is driving stocks higher Amos I have no idea where it comes from Peter a sea of liquidy worldwide Amos i just read that there is shortage of CRANES in Texas because the pace of construction there is HUGE wyatt ty Amos thought so Joe_Kl Well, was wondering if the Beast from the East I read about 3 years ago, is apon us Peter the fed an others keep the printing presses on leo2 from illegal money warren I think the internationals are buying dividend paying large cap stocks with international presence -- BA, CAT etc joel scale of China affect too large to comprehend ? Peter Asia has lots of dollars, we sent them Amos Again, folks-- for people like us who try to follow certain market principles--and I think this is a VERY GOOD APPRAOCH to this business---it is not easy to competet with those "ALGORITHM" wizards. Joe_Kl Again window dress China Olmpics 08, George W 08 Sense of urgancy to Run things up now Joe_Kl seems to fit Amos I do not know if Farley is correct and they control the market-- I just know that at the time when market becomes irrational-- the best thing to do is TRADE SMALL and NOT TRY TO MAKE LARGE SOME OF MONEY Joe_Kl Yes Joe_Kl Just like sports gambling Amos Say to yourself:" I am willing to throw a $1000 on this idea" Joe_Kl lol Peter makes sense Amos Amos I have NO IDEA how much money I will make Amos Do not thing about PROFIT! ONLY THINK about a reasonable STOP LOSS Amos This way the market cannot bite from you more than you are willing to give it wyatt agree 100% Amos Amos If you dream (Like I do once in a while) about the next 50% correction in the stock market and you see in your minds eye 7000 points decline and profit-- WAIT Amos Remember Livermore statemnt about that Pot of Gold at the end of the yellow brick road-- just being a little far than he THOUGHT Amos The Behavior of the market CANNOT CONTINUE like this Joe_Kl Agree Amos We are probably in somekind of a Buying climax where the 2000 top was Preliminary supply-- and we are due for some kind of a big AR---it will happen--but if you are exhausted by then--the this is not good Joe_Kl But it can still break a few hearts yet Joe_Kl lol leo3 joined. Amos THE FATIGUE OF THE MATTER OF THE TRADER is as dangerous as the FATIGUE of a Pilot in a plane-- very dangerous joel ending action in spades is what you experienced guys are saying is setting up ? current market action is a setup for a climax ? wyatt I like tha thinking Amos was thinking the same thing handles good point amos....about the macor view....of this being the AR Amos I told you that the process of WAITING can have two effecfts==EITHER IT FORGES YOU or it EXHASTS you Joe_Kl I think 08 a KEY window Joe_Kl Gut handles W.....joe.....agree leo3 exhaust Amos This is an individual trait and each one must know their own weaknesses Amos THE IMPORTANT FACTOR IS NOT LET THE WITING DEFEAT YOU handles buy a long term put on the ES and go away....come back when its there Amos WAITING handles forget day to day Joe_Kl Starting 07 I never felt more confident in my life, 1 Quarter in, I have yet, things to learn psychological more so than anything handles risk 1000$......and feel like u r in the game Peter SDS is better imho Handles, no expiration handles sure Amos You hear now adays everyone quoting the clich: "Sell in May and go away"...again since so many are aware of it-- it may have lost its value handles yup handles everyone is bearish Joe_Kl This business your always being born again, born over, baptized in trends handles weeeezzz going higher Joe_Kl You must adapt or pay piper handles this whole place is a bears den leo3 one day the market will break very strong handles yup....one day LEO..... handles lol wyatt true Joe Amos We really do not know the degree of significance on futures trading-- of all this information distributed freely on the internet-- but it must have an effect Joe_Kl Many truths tonight Amos handles i am loving this place now handles its so obvious to me Jerry I'm bullish handles and I believe swetz is also. leo3 must be the cm see this fenomena Joe_Kl You hit on many handles we are in a major bull and its not stopping for a while..... Amos The timing is not the only issue-- the SHAPE of the next correction is important too-- will it be 1929 type or 1973 type or 1987 type? handles until this room becomes bullish Joe_Kl I think huge Joe_Kl but a good ways off leo3 129 i think leo3 1929 wyatt lol handles handles i think 1908 handles type handles lol Peter great points Amos, learn your weaknesses and learn how to minimize their impact ontrading, be patient until charts are clearer, trade lightly in the meantime Joe_Kl Agree Art left. handles how about the bull mkt.....is that gonna be the 1970's kind? Jerry Good points Peter. handles lol Joe_Kl OIL ARM Morgages open printing presses Debit society Joe_Kl yee haw Amos This business is NOT going to be easier as time goes by-- but to those who will continue to study the fine nuances and will KEEP an OPEN MIND to the possibility of drastic changes due to the new forces in the market--they can salvage the situation Joe_Kl and buy a 4 wheel SUV Joe_Kl lol joel question on mind set ~ if you are on the wrong side of trend ~ does it ever pay to force yourself to trade from the other side to help mind set ??? Jerry Ebb and Flow, Ebb and Flow Amos In the long run-- the SOLUTIONS to trading are rather simple== David said-- right now-- trade the small time frame and avoid those confusing issues Amos He has a point Joe_Kl I agree smaller risk Joe_Kl always swetz that is what I am doing presently Amos :) Peter wait, or trade another chart Joel :) pat Bush has said has no intention of ending Iraq war--Public opinion will force next president to get out--defense spending will plummit Amos At the same time-- if it will cause him to miss a very large correction wave--he may regret it-- but as long as he is satisfied with his modus operendi== that is what counts Joe_Kl Key is avoiding big hits swetz right Amos leo3 if the money is from east it will be a disastour Jerry If that happens Pat the same result will caise millions to die as VN happened when we left. Joe_Kl NO 1 reason Traders Die = Large Losses Joe_Kl Avoid em Amos Perhaps the most important point of tonight's diatribe is that we are at a phase where some normal models break down and the market is USING thsoe to PUNISH THE PUBLIC Amos ACCEPT THAT handles AGREE Joe_Kl Got to run, been good Amos thanks Joe_Kl See you all tom AM handles night joe joel c u Joe Joe_Kl xo Joe_Kl :) handles not me.....i am back monday handles lol Jerry GE Joe wyatt c ya Joe trade well Joe_Kl left. Amos Ask yourself all the time-- what if the market is going to punish this model (in my case it is the thrust, thrust after key reversal and mandated cause building) leo3 what kind of news will brak it? Amos If you are OPEN TO THE FACT THAT YOUR MODEL MAY BREAK DOWN AT a certain phase of the market-- YOU ARE A MUCH STRONGER TRADER!!!! leo3 break Amos leo3-- A strong meteorite that will destroy Heuston Texas swetz Amos question please Amos go steve swetz for example the Canadian dollar chart swetz once we say a higher high on the quarterly Peter don't tryt to anticipate the news Leo, trade the charts, watch market reaction to news for more clues swetz say = saw swetz couldnt we just look for springs on the smaller timeframe chart to buy swetz since we had an indication of an uptrend on the quarterly? swetz I know hindsight thinking swetz but just thowing out a strategy swetz and wanting your feedback? leo3 1908...san fransisco disastour or a bomb by terrorist Jerry That was 1906 not 08. leo3 sorry Amos Swetz-- this is easy now- but this is a market that rallied non stop from 2003 at 62 to 93 today-- this is huge rally in terms of percentages and you say to yourself -- nothing can rally so much ! Jerry AND the government did not rebuild SF either. Amos 1907 was a big crash Peter 5:12 AM - April 18, 1906 swetz I dont think we should say that to ourselves Amos but I think it is dangerous swetz I think we should say ANY THING can happen in the market Amos perhaps we shall repeat it-- but the trick is not to try to guess the top becausse it is too expensive Jerry He was talking of the earthquake Amos. swetz that way, we are much more flexible to deal with any situation Amos swetz, we are all creatures of statistics swetz I truly believe a market can never get too high or get too low handles i think we will have a chance to be short CD after the summer leo3 left. swetz that is one thing I learned from NASDAQ 5000 leo3 joined. Peter I lived in San Fransico (mot at that time), I have that date and time etched in my mind... handles election time here........ wyatt yep true swetz leo2 left. Amos OK folks-- enough of frustrating and depressing news-- keep looking for the best situations to trade, sift, select and do not lose fate. Wyckoff is still better than bollinger swetz to me, the action in stocks is nothing compared to late 1990s Jerry Lots of damage in San Jose as well Peter. joel thanks Amos swetz lol Amos - amen Amos :) Gary_Fullett ty amos Peter Amos, thank you again for sharing your wisdom Amos swetz, google is at double top---important to watch Gary_Fullett amos loves double tops swetz thx :) I will look at it tonight Gary_Fullett and he likes bottoms too leo4 joined. swetz :) Gary Gary_Fullett i saw goog eaoiler tonight Amos OK guys--let's see what June brings-- see you next time Peter just not V-bottoms ;) handles me too on GOOG Jerry swetz loves topless. LOL ::smile leo4 what i afraid of is there is no time to think when the reversal happen swetz thx Amos swetz lol Jerry - you know it buddy swetz :) swetz GREAT, GREAT stuff Amos ! ! ! ! warren gm Amos and thanks again swetz your time is always appreciated here Larry ty Amos, good stuff Jerry Thnx Amos always good stuff. ::smile leo4 i believe it must be happenon panic Amos leo4-- this is silly-- if you need to catch the top then you do not believe of a large decline-- give thye first 10% to the market Amos good night Amos left. Gary_Fullett what u had tonight imho is the top wyckoff traders in the world here with amos and david they have differnt styles and niches and time frames but the message is so important handles agree gary handles it was very interesting Gary_Fullett amos was taught by david but evolved differntly Gary_Fullett amos is more model orintated handles and we are lucky to hear these guys Gary_Fullett david much more simple Peter agree, it is an honor to be able to listen to them Gary_Fullett will try to get prof pruden here leo5 joined. Peter if you blend what Amos and David both say, it makes a lot of sense...and getting clearewr all the time Jerry He has a full plate right now Gary, Dr. Pruden... wyatt :) nice... would love that leo5 yes that fenomena happen globally i think..very good lesson John left. Gary_Fullett i know he does leo3 left. Jerry Another book in progress, teaching, etc. Gary_Fullett but its nice to get a differnt perwpective Peter Gary thank you for inviting Amos again, good night everyone - dinner time, see you in the morning Gary_Fullett the fast that amos and david join us is a tribute to u all Gary_Fullett and yoru work wyatt gn Peter Gary_Fullett when u lewarn from great traders leo5 bye peter Gary_Fullett it helps u trade and understandf better kent fast = fact handles bye peter Larry gn peter Gary_Fullett always risk but helpd Gary_Fullett any q handles kent...lol kent :) joel experience is a beautiful thing leo5 yes handles how much are ES puts way out in 08?????? handles lol Jerry Its a thurough educatation 3 nights a week. Peter gn Wyatt, handles, leo, Lary kent too much. lol az n Peter joel gn Peter Jerry GE Peter. Gary_Fullett cant get better for the price wyatt lol Jerry Very true Gary. az left. Jerry Ans double your money back to boot... LOL Peter GN Larry, Jerry, Joel & AZ Gary_Fullett okay see u all tommororw Gary_Fullett good night michal left. wyatt go SPURS Larry gn all, thx again Gary Gary_Fullett left.