Gary_Fullett joined. DaveM i c DaveM gives good perspective that many do not see or use DaveM that can be our edge..:) warren joined. DaveM hi gary Art joined. DaveM warrreen DaveM hi are DaveM art Amos Patience is NOT a common human trait Art hi Dave and everyone Gary_Fullett good evening and good morning to some folks warren hi Dave, and everyone DaveM i agree and fit that catagory amos.:( DaveM working on that swetz GOOOD EVENING AMOS swetz ::smile Amos hello swetz all pumped up, get to talk about quarterly charts swetz ::smile kent joined. tom joined. Amos pumped up--Get Punctured biwi joined. swetz lol warren I sometimes am too patient and need someone to hit me with a wet noodle to push the sell button! Gary_Fullett left. Gary_Fullett joined. kent lol warren biwi hi e veryone Doc_K joined. Art hi Kent Tom and biwi kent hi biwi kent hey Art biwi Hi Art Kent Art hi Doc Kelley joined. DaveM hi kelley Art hey Kelley biwi Hi Kelly ::beer Lady_K joined. Gary_W joined. Kelley hi art, Dave, biwi ::beer Kelley good evening Folks Gary_W Hi everybody; looks like the gangs all here Amos Just for my curiosity, what is the relationship between Kelley and Lady K? Kelley left. Kelley joined. Doc_K Hello all kent hey Kelley DaveM scared her off amos...lol Steve_W joined. Doc_K u2art Kelley hi Kent kent hey Doc Tom. joined. Amos OK we start with the monstrous CRB Lady_K None--Amos Amos TY Lady_K Lady K and Doc K h/w Amos I am looking for Godiva Amos The Crb is the most important chart for me. Amos and it is NOT EASY Amos Unless you are a PERMANENT BULL which I am not. Amos Before I START--One IMPORTANT CAVIAT Amos LET IT BE PERFECTLY CLEAR: WE ALL SEE THE SAME CHARTS--and EVERYONE OF US SEES WHAT HE/SHE WANT TO SEE!!! JohnF joined. pat sounds like religion and politics Amos Therefore-- it will be awfully NICE if someone sees SOMETHING DIFFERENT COMPLETELY from what I SEE--LET THEM SPEAK OR FOR EVER BE SILENT Amos Then we can discuss different points of view, their merits and their weaknesses. This can be very helpful Amos I will try to repeat this request/petition during tonight Bob joined. Amos But please understand that I am wearing my POPPER pink glasses and they TAINT! Amos The line above the CRB chart should read "finished 21Q" and not 212. DaveM bob john crb chart Bob thanks carnac ty karl.lol. Amos from the low in 2001 we climbed almost non stop for 5 y ears=-=21 quarters. Amos Since I pay attention to fibo numbers--it is a number that MAY turn the market. Amos So I am looking for 8-13 quarters correction in a shape I have NO IDEA what it will be. Amos But I DO NOT TRADE fib numbers UNTIL THEY PROVE THEMSELVES. Amos The FIRST PROOF that the CRB TOPPED is to make a LOWER LOW on the quarterly chart. Amos Easier said than done Amos We closed thelast quareter (3 days ago) near the high and that is NOT BEARISH! Amos You can say that last 3 Q are SOT-- perhaps. but making higher lows and higherhighs and closing last 2 Q at the high-- is still BULLISH. Amos If I glance GENERALLY at the individual commodities-- ISEE THAT handles joined. biwi crb chart Handles Amos WEAK ONES: CT LB CF Amos Stonge ones: Metals, Energy, OJ Grains, LC Amos So MAJORITY of commodities are STRONG-- Thus from a "sector " analysis pointt of view-- nothing is BEARISH HERE. tim_b what is a cf please ? Peter coffee tim_b kc ? tim_b ok Amos You can say that lumber is a telling commodity becuase CONSTRUCTION is Still a major part that drives the economy--but today we are more of a service economy and one MSFT is worth 10 Lumber jacks Amos At anyrate-- This chart f the CRB is rather frstatingg--because at THIS MOMENT so early in the 2nd q of2007- ALL I CAN SAY is--NMT NMT NMT Amos This is why I opened tonite with:Prepre for frusrating evening kent NMT = need more time tim_b left. Amos How ever--the line is drawn in the sand-a lower low on the Joe_K joined. Amos quarterly chart--will sell MAJOR corretion in commodities....what ever this means handles joe....crb chart Kelley hi Joe, crb chart Amos Until then? ALL I CAN SAY--TRADE SMALL! Bob left. Amos WHenever I am in such a situation that I am expecting something--but the market says-- SLOW DOWN-- I simply lower the size of my trading--so that I make SMALL MISTAKES. Amos If anyone sees something different than this view--please say so now Amos The NEXT chart is the DXC dwayne joined. Peter why do you say NMT on the CRB, because of the possible so? Peter sot Joe_K ty Kel, Handles Kelley yw mang Amos I have potential 21 q count which can be very bearish against a strong close of last quarter-- NO SYNNERGY tom left. Amos NO SYNNERGY for me says: TRADE SMALL! Peter ok, ty.. Amos The Dollar is another frustrating enetity ory joined. Peter y Kelley hi ory, dx chart ory Hi Kelley Amos 2 Q ago finished 21 Q decline after HUGE DB of 10 years and 34 months decline. The symmetry of the decline change from Bearish to not so bearish and we took out (albeit very slightly) the LAST HIGH BEFORE THE low of 2004-- which to me means NO MORE BEAR--But possibly TR Gary_Fullett left. dwayne left. Amos So we climed 4 Q and declined 4 Q and last Q was INTRA BAR. BUT CLOSED AT THE LOW!!! Gary_Fullett joined. Amos I am very tuned to the CLOSE OF IMPORTANT BARS eric joined. Amos So the Dollar is now in its 10th q of "sideways trading" tom joined. Bob joined. eric hello johnny this eric Amos I cannot tell of any trend until it takes out a high or a low-- and to be any bullish it MUST TAKE OUT not Last q high but the one before it. Amos Well, like the CRB we are FAR FROM THAT POINT and it may take a LONG TIME even if we go there--AGAIN-- ALL I CAN HONESTLY SAY-- NMT--TRADE SMALL! Amos Frustrating as it is --PUSHING YOUR VIEW ON THE MARKET IS one of the most EXPENSIVE WAYS TO TRADE! Amos Ask Rothchilde Amos If anyone sees something ELSE on the DOllar-=-SPEAK UP Peter the only frustration is that it's hard to trade the dollar and therefore the euro, Jerry joined. Peter otherwise, who cares Amos Peter--euro and dollar are almost mirror of each other Joe_K Think DX rallies soon Amos Why Joe? Peter agreed..therefore I can;t trade them, bu there are alot of other markets kent hi Jerry, DX quarterly chart Amos the dollar is important because to the degree that commodities are trading dollar values--the cheaper the dollar-- the more "expensive" the commodity phil joined. Joe_K Well nt I think it can do 8400 in a bit Joe_K But on the over all Peter true, there is soe correlation to some other commodities, but each must be charted and traded independently imho Jerry Hi Kent, where's that chart I just checked archives. Amos Many people talk in terms of "DOLLAR ADJUSTED " PRICES tom left. Amos Next chart is the DOW Joe_K Maybe better if this continental shift pans out Stocks, Metals, Majors, another corrective round pending in a bit kent http://www.ltg-trading.com/20070404a.pdf Amos We are in quarter # 18 from the 2003 lows. eric left. Amos Does not mean anything to me in terms of counting bars. Amos I see a higher high on the multi year chart and I have to ask myself-- HOW DO I RECONCILE this with the Fact that Nasdaq did not even make 25% corrective rally from the bottom of its bubble.. Amos S and P is not even double top Amos and SXC--OPTIONS INDEX stopped at the 62% correction. Amos This discrepency is VERY NON SYNNERGISTIC. in a moment you will see that EVEN WITHING the DOW components-- YOU HAVE DISCREPENCY--THIS IS FRUSTRATIN TOO-- AND REQUIRES PATIENCE Alvin joined. tom joined. Jerry Okay got it last night PDF. Amos At any rate-- from the BAR STRUCTURE- I have last q as a "REVERSAL" thqat closed in the MIDDLE kent y Amos It is HIGHER HIGh and HIGHER LOW. LOWER CLOSE- (REVERSAL) and CLOSE IN THE MIDDLE JOEL on falling volumes? Amos For me-- every close in the middle implies , until proven differently-- a NEAR TERM TRADING RANGE Amos Joel-- I am leaving volume aside right now kent implies indecision JOEL k Amos So the high and low of the dow--for the next few weeks is the high and low of last quarter. Peter when I see a bar like last quarters Dow, I think of a combination of an UT & SOT Amos I HAVE NO IDEA what it is going to do-- so I assume it will trade WITHIN LAST QUARTER Amos AGAIN very poor for ME--because I can ONLY TRADE at the edges--at the high and the low where my LOK is high (level of knowledge). Amos Nothing I can do about it. Amos But to know that the next few weeks are CRUCIAL for the rest of the year-- is significant. Amos I do not care if I make bulk of my money in May or june-- right now-- I MUST trade small. Amos Next chart is Utilities Amos This one is very not nice. Amos It has NO AREAS OF accumulation or distribution. It makes "V" tops and Bottoms and it TOTALLY IGNORES fundamentals. Amos Utilities are, supposedly INTEREST RATE RELATED. Amos BONK Amos No connection between the BONDS CHART and this one . Amos Although people will show you in the past "PERFECT CORRELATION" between Bonds and Utilities. Amos NOT IN THE LAST 3 years. Amos What does this chart tell me? THAT THE BULLS have TOTAL CONTROL Amos I also know that this market can turn on a DIME and DIVE. JOEL a bit climactic or no? the last bar Amos DIME AND DIVE-- Know this Trading model? kent crash and burn? lol Amos All I know is that as long as it makes a HIGHER LOW on the quarterly -- DON'T SHORT IT Amos But the utilities represent the " SOLID" side of investment. These are NO GROWTH but HIGH DIVIDENT SECTORS--does it mean secret FLIGHT TO QUALITY? Amos perhaps-- I DO NOT KNOW Amos I just know that it behaves VERY DIFFERENTLY THAN THE 500 s and P compenies index. To me-- that is INCONGROUS--and it mean LOWER LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE. Amos chart # 5 is the Transport. Amos According to DOW THEORY-- this is the BELWEHTHER of stocks Peter the djt, seems to confirm the ut/sot combo I mentioned earlier Amos You can see that while the Dow was correcting deeper the Transpor only made a DB in 2003--that was the SECRET-- It told you that the ECONOMY is STRONG Peter in dow index Amos At any rate-- at THIS POINT what can I say about the chart? Peter to me this chart is bearish, until a new high is made because of the close of the last quater Amos We had "sort of" reversal--LOWER LOW 4 q ago that closed off the bottom , one inside quarter and last quarter even tho it made higher high-- it closed in the middle. Amos THIS MAY QUALIFY as what Peter is stressing here-- a POTENTIAL UP THRUST. Amos I would prefer to have seen a LOWER CLOSE last q--but it closed in the middle JOEL highest quarterly close happend a while back can not hold the highs Amos This may be a very telling chart in this quarter-- if , indeed it was an UPTHRUST rather then higher high and continuation of the UPTREND-- we MUST make a lower low. Peter clealy supply came in last quater..o me ths is bearish at the top of a chart, strong hands were selling a previous bull Amos Therefore-- I URGE YOU TO WATCH THE TRASPORT INDEX on a continuous basis-- to see what it is telling. Amos Peter-- You cannot call a higher high and higher low BEARISH-- You are talking your wishful thinking and I am talking the CHART!!!! Amos So the three components of the dow all are still making higher lows and higher highs-- and this is NOT BEARISH. Amos We are seeing small signs (Dow and transport of potential supply showing up while NONE in the Util) Peter ok Amos, I agree on that point, but whenever I';ve seen this type of bar at the top, it often ends up having the same effect as a SOT/UT combo...a new high will prove me wrong Amos But STILL THE BARS POINT UP-- AND WE MUST RESPECT kent red flag Peter Amos Peter-- I AM NOT INTRESTED IN GUESSING WHAT THE MARKET WILL DO at this point . Only in HONESTLY REPORTING WHAT THE CHART SEAYS!! Peter yes Kent exactly JOEL higher lows impressive Amos and, as I said earlier: WE ALL SEE THE SAME CHARTS and EACH ONE OF US sees DIFFERENT THINGS Peter I am trying to do the same Amos, sorry if I sound biased JD joined. Amos All in all-- the STOCK comples from the DOW COMPONENTS POINT OF VIEW-- says STILL UP with minor signs of hesitation. If it develops into more bearish signs-- we will start an IMPORTANT CORRECTION that, at least in my view, will take YEARS!!! Amos Next chart is Corn ory left. Amos I drew a horizontal line from 2004 high and I treat is a ICE. Amos It is around 335-1/4 Amos What can I say about this chart? Amos 5 strong quarters with rally of 100% (2 to 4 bucks a bushel) swetz KR last quarter Amos ended last quarter with a reversal that I can call Sort of BC swetz in the area of supply from 3rd qtr of 1996 Amos If it is BC-- do I expect an AR, ST and such? Jerry left. Amos From the qurterly chart of the last 20 years--NO Amos Corn, is one of those markets that is distributing on the ascent. Peter the last 2 bars can be a 2 bar upthrust or a joc and a retest pending this quarter Jerry joined. Amos It is simply used by large hedgers to SELL ON THE WAY UP becuase they LOCK TO SURE PROFITS-- and then it makes a "V" top. Amos You have to accept that. biwi ST? Amos It makes a lot of sense from economical point of view. swetz biwi - secondary test biwi ok ty swetz ::smile Amos All the large Silo owners, those who really buy , store and sell corn-- and large farming corporations-- LOVE to be able to hedge their product at ABOVE COST prices-- and lock to SURE PROFITS. biwi yup swetz you are right Amos - that is how my uncle does it swetz ::smile Amos Those who know the Armand Hammer story and silver (hunt escapapde)--understand how he made 142 million dollars in 3 weeks. Amos So What can we, small traders do with corn here? handles eat it JOEL anyway a higher timeframe chart can do too much smoothing and make the read more difficult - this chart easier to read in the lower timeframes? Peter wait for a retest is the safest Amos All I know is that Corn made a LOWER LOW on the quarterly chart Amos To me the BULL IS OVER! Joe_K Mentioned this other day, 450 Corn well above average mean and sellable Amos What next? HAVE NO IDEA Amos If it is NOT a bull-- it can be either a bear or a TRADING RANGE Peter need to see the reaction at that line you drew imho Amos my PERSONAL inclination is to expect markets to go thru a preparation phase (this is the WYCKOFF CURSE IN ME--ALWAYS LOOKING FOR A CAUSE BUILDING PHASE!) swetz Amos - could you look at this slight penetration of last quarter low as potential spring if other timeframes support it? Amos So I "assume" (ass me and u) that corn will enter sort of Trading range Joe_K Not so sure about Bull be gone Amos NO stever-- I do not impose Wyckoff terminology after ONE BAR JOEL seems that pullback would be diproportional compared to the ways it came down in the past after moves nothing has held on the way back but much lower levels Tom. left. swetz I understand, thx Amos ::smile Amos Oh, I see y ou start reacting with your own views--THAT IS GREAT Peter as you mentioned earlier corn's characteristics are such that you may not get this "cause building" so, this is likely a multi bar UT or a joc with pendind retest Joe_K I see much higher Cotton, Coffee, Joe_K ect Joe_K much Amos it is GOOD that people express different views-- and then you can compare the arguments. Amos But whatever you say-- please USE REASONING. ron joined. Joe_K With Beans you tested 575 a 4-5 year Accum TR and Reacted well Joe_K Thats bullish too Amos I care very little about what each one of you "FEELS" about the market. Give me reasons and I will listen Joe_K Coffee Joe_K 5 years Joe_K Accum Joe_K 20 year Spring Joe_K at 40 Peter if you're talking about my coments, I'll be glad to expand, but I'm just identifying what I see, trying to not be biased Joe_K To start it Amos We will get to coffee and cotton in a minute swetz Amos - should we turn bearish corn so quickly since corn had the widest range up bar 3 quarters ago Joe_K There Joe_K :) swetz which broke above creek swetz and so far Corn has held above creek swetz now ice Amos Steve. I am NOT bearish corn-- but I AM NOT BULLISH ANY MORE!!! Joe_K Let her correct Joe_K Then we see truth Amos The quarterly chart has sort of BUYING CLIMAX Peter to borrow an acronym from you.. NMT imho swetz okay ::smile Amos It is OBIVOUSLY a REVERSAL on the Q chart and in the last 20 years every such reversal spelled END OF BULL. PERIOD Amos FROM NOW ON I am Happy to sell rallies, more than buy Dips. PERIOD Gary_Fullett whats nmt? swetz need more time Amos Next chart is coffee Gary_Fullett ty swetz ::smile Joe_K Last 20 years did Crude see 70 and Silver 14 Joe_K :) Amos We have a market that is now 9 quarters inside a rather narrow trading range between 140 and 85. Amos THAT IS ALL I CAN SAY. Joe_K Not our mothers markets Amos You want to imagine BULL MARKET-- be mu guest. Amos ALL I KNOW FROM THE CHART that THE CM is in NO HURRY TO DO ANYTHING Peter very tough market, but in the tr you stated, and can be traded accordingly swetz Amos - the higher lows within this TR is not bearish though right? Amos To me --that is NON TRENDING MARKET Joe_K Corn rallied from 200-300 Joe_K to 450 Joe_K just corrected Joe_K some Joe_K Let it breath a tad Joe_K It is currently defined as a BULL Amos YOU WANT TO SCALP IT-- Be my guest. If you dream of the next1-2 dollar rallies-- you are on your own Joe_K however Joe_K Until Its NOT Jerry I belive Amos is correct we are in accumulation moving towards distribution. Amos Well, fine weth me--if you want to see it as a bull-- I have no problem/ I can't even argue-- I SEE IT AS A TRAING RANGE Amos to each his own Joe_K How can Corn be in a Bear market yet ? Joe_K Thats imposing WILL Peter 4c in coffee is $1500 per car, this may be chump change for some, but if you canscalp 4c it seems worth it to me Amos You have to understand that coffee is one of the WEAKEST COMMODITIES and if I am right about the CRB TURNING down-- the weakes commodity will DECLINE Joe_K 450 and 360 Corn is NOT cheap Amos This is WHAT I SEE-- and nothing more than that! Joe_K Lord Joe_K lol Joe_K 200 Coffee coming Larry joined. Amos I think that calling the Coffee accumulation-- is wishfull thinking Joe_K 5 years Amos Joe_K Accum Joe_K Weekly Joe_K Clear as day Amos Again--if you look at the coffee chart unbiased it is in a TRADING RANGE. ce tu. warren looks like hing developing Amos I am NOT LONG COFFEE! period Jerry Okay moving on... kent long term MA is moving up Amos Next chart is sugar JOEL forming higher levels of support Peter if you agree it's in a TR , then it's either accumulation or distribution, the cause seems to high for distribution Peter in coffe Amos I think Last time we looked at the chart I said that the semi low of 980 is the support and I do not know where Resistance is. Joe_K Its like Cotton, if you see 5 years Coffee cause to 20 Amos Same picture. JOEL left. Joe_K Hey knock yourselves out shorten it Amos Sugar is NOT A BULL! JOEL joined. Amos Bull markets do not COLLAPSES so easily. Joe_K Well Sugar droped 13 bucks Joe_K no Joe_K not bullish Joe_K lol Amos At the same time we are in an area from which we broke 10 cents from 10 to almost 20-- so you must assume some support will come here. Amos Again, the chart is weak because we are closing 3 quarters at the low end with NO DEMAND IN SIGHT Peter sugar, corn, wheat, silver all have the same kind of spike tops Amos at this point 12.50 is resistance and support can extend to 7.50. Beyond this-- I DO NOT KNOW Peter look at there the demand started in sugar, we are just about to retest it... Peter where Joe_K lol Amos Volume seems to have expanded on last q decline-- and that may add to bearishness Amos Next chart is cotton. Amos Same as coffee. One of the WEAKEST COMMODITIES on the board. handles another bear chart Joe_K lol Amos If you fall into the trapo of thinking that "EACH DOG HAS ITS DAY"--you dreram of Jeanie ( or is it Ginny?) Joe_K ( Buckle up guys and wait a few weeks but stay strapped in ) handles genie? Amos All I see is a large trading range between 40 and 60. Gary_Fullett jeannie handles ok handles she was hot swetz ::smile Amos Peter let's see, all these commodities are bearish, but the CRB is at the highs...something wrong with this picture :) Jerry Hey I'm tearing up can't see the chat... Joe_K Dont know about that but see 70 Cotton or better kent very well could retest the lows Joe_K :) kent lol Jerry Amos If you can show me signs of strength or weakness in cotton-- I am willing to listen--but a market that sits in 11 Q range while many other commodities are racing to the moon-- IS NOT STRONG Joe_K Look at recent Spring Joe_K CT Joe_K and retest Joe_K Your risk on longs now is about 3.5 cents Joe_K tops Gary_Fullett realtive to othe rcommdities folks cotton coffee sug are the wekaest Amos My hunch says we are going to wash 40 before any meaningful bull market. but that is MY GUESS and it is not worth the paper it is written on Peter ok, in cotton, accum started at the lows..you had a SOS, ad a retest... Gary_Fullett understand what amos is saying kent according to quarterly chart, cotton could be on a hinge Gary_Fullett price ahsnt proven anything yet Peter now a TR 40- 60 Jerry We need an oil chart.. Amos Peter, I enumerated at the beginning of tonight the strong commodities and the weak ones Joe_K Gary did you say Cotton Uptrend ? Peter I agree Amos, cotton, sugar, coffee, are definitely the weak sisters Amos I said that energy, metals, OJ, Grains, Copper and cattle are strong while a few like lumber, cotton, coffee are weak Joe_K Other day Joe_K lol handles we own the weak ones.....dang kent not on a quaterly chart he didn't, lol Amos Again, folks, I am trying to look at the quarterly with as UNBIASED EYE as possible. What is the STORY the chart is telling me, WITHOUT my wishful thinking Amos Cotton say-- "I AM HAPPY TO BE in the 40-60 range" for the foreseeable future-- anyone who thinks otherwise-- SHOW ME THE M ONEY Peter 20c TR in cotton is $10k per contract, still can make some money Jerry He who has the correct 411 gets all the dough. Amos Whhile we arer talking the yen made a 24 hour low on forex below 11861. we see if this is meaningful-- must break 8519 on the globex Amos Next chart is CRUDE Amos We had a BC SORT OF KR 4 quarters ago (similar to Corn from a geometric point of view) Amos and continued 2 quarters down to the 50 area. Amos There support appears and we rallied strongly almost to 70 area. Amos Where are we now? Jerry left. swetz right in the middle swetz between 50 and 80 Amos All I can say is RANGE between 50 on the low side and about 70 on the high side ron left. Amos I am a BEAR! Amos But willing to take profits on the way down and SELL RALLIES Jerry joined. Amos WHY? Peter lol no bias now ;) Peter that TR can be distribution Alvin left. Peter or reaccum Joe_K the KR bear Joe_K lol Joe_K BAM Amos Because to me the BULL IS OVER and CRUDE IS ON OF THE STRONG COMMODITIES THAT ALREADY SHOWING signs of supply-- so IF THE CRB really turns down--CRUDE MAY LEAD DOWBN Amos What is BAM joe? kent looks like last 2 quarters have closed in the upper 1/3 of range Joe_K That last Crude move Joe_K BAM Amos What does BAM mean? swetz but Amos can we not also say there is strong demand at 50 kent BAM = impulsive Amos ok Joe_K Last NG move lil better Peter very good point Amos, howevr imho, this tr must be respected Joe_K :) Jerry Volume strong MA is rising... Amos Again , the way I SEE THE CHART (and again it is PERSONAL VIEW__ DO NOT FORGET THAT-- IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT I READ THE MARKET BETTER THAN Y OU!!) is: Amos We have a buyin g climax. We had an AUTOMATIC REACTION Alvin joined. Amos We are in a rally that is fromin g the RANGE OF DISTRIBUTION and I can even look at the 70 high o 2005 as PSY on the qurterlyh chart swetz Amos would you say PSY is 7 bars ago? swetz you beat me to it Amos May times the PSY is the area of real distribution --therfore 70 may be a FANATASTIC SELLING AREA swetz ::smile Amos Very good Steve Steve_W PSY? ron joined. Amos But--remember -- this may be only figmen t of imaginaiton swetz preliminary supply Gary_Fullett prelimnary supply Amos PSY-PRELIMINARY SUPPLY Steve_W tx JOEL echo swetz lol Joel Amos Yes many reverberations here JOEL (o:>* kent lol Jerry Wolfe Wave could be in play here. Amos To trade the crude on daily basis-- the quarterly chart is too big-- but I am NOT TALKING daily trades here-- ONLY VERY LARGE POINT OF VIEW-- for the next 9 months! Doc_K cl tr 40 -70 Amos Next chart is the bonds Joe_K Better have 17K stops Joe_K then Joe_K lol DaveM gotta run biz day tomorrow...thanks a bunch amos DaveM left. Amos No joe--that is silly. To know where the large road is pointing has nothing to do with 17k stop loss. Joe_K 5200 to 6800 Joe_K Last Move Amos I just want to know if I am going west when I travel from NY to LA and not NORHT Joe_K For a Bear kent bonds looks like it wants to roll over Joe_K not too healthy Amos Bonds is another mess Joe_K So Amos how does one hold 16K stop ? Joe_K in Crude Amos All I can see from the Quarterly chart is a large range of 8 quarters between 120 and 105. Gary_Fullett joe dont be assinine Joe_K Asking Joe_K serious kent I think he said he doesn't trade the Quarterly, just uses it as a road map Joe_K How do define Stop Jerry Amos is speaking Bob Evans now LOL Bob left. Gary_Fullett he didnt say a large stop Joe_K Quarterly Joe_K Bar Gary_Fullett he responded Peter Joe, Amos is not talking about trading the qrtly charts, he is zooming in from here to assess the markets Amos It is interesting that the large powers or the Fed if you wish is very comfortable with such stable interest rates, despit the large moves in commodities-- UNHEARD OF in 100 yeaers. Amos I must admit I do NOT understand this. It used to be that INTEREST RATES had some relationships to cost of commodities-- NOT NOW. Joe_K Other Week he said Key Reversal Crude and short was the consensus, Im asking how do you place a stop on that Joe_K It went to 68 Amos Apparently the economy has adjusted itself so that cost of commodities is a small fraction of general cost--and it is WRONG to correlate BONDS and CRB. SO BE IT Amos I do not know how to trade the bonds at this point and I am very confused. Peter Amos, I think the fed is more worried about recession than inflation Jerry All Joe is asking is a claification on a point Gary, thats not being assinine. Amos If anyone sees any TRADING SIGNAL== Do tell swetz seems like from looking at the past quarterly bars kent possible BC at 120? Peter so they are alowing money supply to continue to "keep the ship afloat" Joe_K TY Jerry swetz a good plan would be to short the test of high of the bar swetz and buy the test of the low of the bar Amos Joe, I am not answering you becuase I am not talking ACUTALL TRADING TACTICS HERE. Sorry Gary_Fullett jerry ther eis a respectful way to ask Amos steve y ou are saying that 115 is sell? Alvin 3rd bar back says the bears may be winning Gary_Fullett amos answer abotu the 17 k stop Amos and 105 is buy? Joe_K Well is a Key Reversal Tactical or not ? Amos KR is definition of market==HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH TACTICS Joe_K So watch a Key Reversal ? swetz I was thinking that with these bars seeming to overlap so much as bonds moves sideways Joe_K Then what Amos WOW I just realised that the BONDS CHART IS SEMI ANNUAL!! swetz we could maybe put alerts a the high/low of last quarter bar Amos Sorry about that-- we are in a 4 y ear range--which is even MORE AWESOME. Joe_K Amos Im sorry, but you mentioned these trades Joe_K Long Wheat Joe_K ect Joe_K Not mine swetz and zoom in on smaller timeframe to find the actual trades Joe_K Asking serious questions swetz using your models Amos Joe-- I lose tons of money on some of my trades. swetz oops, sorry meant high/low of semiannual bar Joe_K We all lose money Joe_K Im asking about stops Joe_K On Quarterly Bars Amos chart 12 is lumber Joe_K ok ? Gary_Fullett joe he didnt give a specific rec on anything here so far Peter there is an apex foming in the bonds, so another trade aproach is to sell the downtrend, and buy the uptrend if you get a chance Amos There are NO STOPS ON QUARTERLY CHARTS Gary_Fullett he mentioend his bias Amos The stops are on the MODEL! Amos The quarerly chart are CRASS ROADS Joe_K So long wheat, short beans, long yen, short crude wernt actuals ? Joe_K Ok Gary_Fullett did eh give prices joe? Gary_Fullett i dont think so Gary_Fullett let amos worry about amos Joe_K No but mentioned these Joe_K Awful touchy Joe_K guys Amos What strikes me very strongly on the lumber chart is the fact that we are back at 1990 levels swetz Amos with lumber - seems like 20 area would be our best area to buy Amos this flies in the face of people who think we will not see crude and 20 dollars again. swetz dont see much except a choppy TR between 20 and 45 swetz but we did have 3 bars up and now 6 bars down swetz and still not at 20 Amos I do not know if we shall see them or nt-- but to say that things are DIFFERENT TODAY and we shall never see prices of such and such again-- is very dangerous in the market place. handles when we stop using it....crude will be $20 Amos If we start rallying the dollar ( which most fundamental analysts think will NOT happen in the next few years)--then many commodities can go back to past prices. Peter as you mentioned in an earlier lecture Amos, all markets don't directly corelate,.... some seem to be ahead, some behind Amos Again-- I am not saying something will happen-- but to say that something CANNOT HAPPEN-- is like saying that there has not been a tzunami in Fucket for the past 150 years-- therefore it will not happen. Amos Lumber is in support area but it can stay here for years. Peter lumber seems like a huge TR... seems hard to trade it except at the top or bottom Amos I do not know if lubmer is a front runner of impending recession--after all housing industry IS one big industry in the US--but the fact that Lubmer companies are HEDGING LUMBER DOWN-- tells me that something is afoul. Amos We shall see. Amos i am NOT A BUYER OF LUMBER. Amos if you want to SCALP short rallies-- FINE swetz Amos - even at 20, you wouldn't be a buyer of lumber? Amos Looking vor a run back to 4 bucks--at this point--need at lieast HIGHER HIGH on the QUARTERLY CHART Amos Next chart is Silver. Amos It is trading now one full year within the large "KR" of 5 quarters ago. Amos Last quareter CLOSED IN THE MIDDLE--to me that means MORE SIDEWAYS TRADING WITHI N the high an d low of last quarter Amos Resistance aroun g 14.50 Amos support around 12. Amos If the last 5 quarters is also a DOUBLE TOP at the 15 area--then this is more meaningful--and predicts back to 7.50. Amos Cannot tell at the moment Peter silver's characteristic is to have huge UTs and shakeouts...not for the faint of heart, but the uptrend must be respected and that 12-14.50 TR is $1250 Amos It seems to be a darling of large funds and I know a few smart people who think that silver and gold are going to the moon. Amos I have a problem with that--but must be open Amos Next chart is the Nikkei. Peter hard for me to look at this silver chart and be bearish Joe_K I think Silver Gold getting ready for another good dip Joe_K in a bit Amos Don't trade it but thught the NEAT channel may mean something-- so just brought it to your attention Amos This is a REVERSE CHANNEL where I first connected the LOWS and then paralleled the Highs-- Not conventional and many times turns out to be freak wishful thinking--just an interesting incident. Amos Last chart for this monetous evening is Austalian dollar. Amos It broke out of 3 year range to the upside--BUT IT IS SITTING AGAINST 11 year HIGH. Amos If the 1996 high is IMPORTANT--WE MAY HAVE A HUGE DOUBLE TOPO IN TEH AUSSIE that will cause a down turn of MANY YEARS. Jerry Print the chart, reverse it, would you still trade it? Gary_W left. Jerry That is hold it to the light. Amos i DO NOT WANT TO CATCH THE CORNER (Although I will throw a few thousand dollars on 2 contracts just to test the water!) Amos I want to see an ANNUAL UNTHRUST and ride the aussie DOWN for a long haul. Amos will it happen? Well if Pelosi sits with Assad--Antying can happen kent lol Kelley lol Jerry I aggree there Amos. Amos So just keep this aussie chart at the back of your mind kent if gold and silver tanks, Aussie will prob tank too handles everything is tanking kent Amos If this is a quarterly upththrust that can be a trade of very profitable proportions handles from all of these charts.......except for the dow kent very possible Amos Yes Kent--this is one of the FEW times I will accept the correlation between Aussie and metals==but that is because SO MANY TRADERS BELIEVE THIS FOOLY Amos FOLLY Amos to sum up this presentation-- VERY FEW CLEAR SIGNALS. kent there is some correlation, no? Art thks Gary and Amos Amos MANY VERY CRUCIAL SITUATION Art left. Amos Patience will be very rewarding Amos Trade small for a few weeks Amos 2007 may turn out to be watershed Amos Do not forget 1907 Alvin THX Gary and Amos Jerry Good info tonight, but I've got to get a new box og Kleenex. handles explain? kent lol Jerry Amos Why jerry? biwi explain 1907 Jerry All the bickering was cracking me up. Amos Read Jesse livermore about the crash of 1907 Amos I did not see any bickering. Amos You cannot trade by committee Amos I do not mind other people's opinions. I just ignore them Gary_Fullett not bickerign jerry people ahve views Gary_Fullett free country JOEL LOL amos Peter This crash was called the "Panic of 1907." The U.S. Treasury department bought 36 million dollars worth of government bonds to offset the decline biwi so your comparing 2007 to pre 1907 Jerry It was a meeting of divergent minds. Gary_Fullett amos Gary_Fullett on 1 tiem frame Gary_Fullett let say a monthly chart kent and they asked livermore to cover his shorts, lol Gary_Fullett can u have multiople sc or bcs? Amos biwi--I am just watching Astrolgoy swetz yep kent Peter Date Started: 1/19/1906 Date Ended: 11/15/1907 Total Days: 665 Starting DJIA: 75.45 Ending DJIA: 38.83 Total Loss: -48.5% JOEL lord handles astrology? Amos 100 years cycle Jerry Keep the biorythems handy too. handles ok Kelley ty Peter Gary_Fullett uranus? Amos Gary explain more kent lol Gary_Fullett well Joe_K Gary if SMI can have SC in Dist TR Im sure multiple SC warranted for some folks Gary_Fullett i think smi talks on muliple sc or bcs Joe_K lol Gary_Fullett on the same tiem frame Gary_Fullett i fely Amos you sure they are not talking orgasms? Gary_Fullett felt Joe_K Time Frame wize you Can Gary_Fullett that only 1 sc or bc per time frame Joe_K multiple Gary_Fullett that a climax Gary_Fullett wass ending action? Jerry donuts help that question Gary. Gary_Fullett what jerry? Jerry uranus. Steve_W Thanks, excellent discussion tonight. Amos You are touching upon a very intricate aspect--the SPREADING OF CLIMAX over more than ONE TIME FRAME Joe_K You can have 20-30 BC SC over smaller bars over course of months Gary Steve_W left. Amos Yes they do it Lady_K left. JOEL if there is smoking afterwards it was climactic Joe_K 5 min 10 min ect... Kelley lol John left. Amos This is why it is so crucial to look at higher ones Gary_Fullett but wouldnt a climax signify Gary_Fullett the end of a move on that tiem fraem that u ahve the climax? Joe_K Climax on Hourly or Daily is Not Climax on Monthly Peter Thank you Amos for sharing the larger time frame perspective on these markets Joe_K Diff animals Amos Let me put it this way--THERE CANNOT BE A DAILY BC or SC that DOES NOT SHOW ON THE WEEKLY CHART Gary_Fullett that was the q joe Amos If IT DOES NOT-- IT IS NOT RIGHT Gary_Fullett I was atlking 1 tiem frame Joe_K It will show up Joe_K But not necessarilly as a climax too Joe_K A Daily BC can be a Weekly UT Joe_K Ok ? Joe_K Synergy baby Amos Ok folks-- as they say in Lebanon-- the Best French whore cannot give you more than she has got--- this is all I have got for tonight Joe_K TY Gary_Fullett lol amos ty kent lol Kelley ty Mr. Cohen, ty Gary, good night Folks swetz GREAT STUFF Amos Gary_Fullett chag smeach handles gn guys kent thanks Amos Joe_K Happy Holidays JOEL short term intermediate term and long term - if you get a BC in the intermediate term you see it on the long term? Gary_Fullett hold on folks JOEL thanks amos JimC left. warren many thanks Amos swetz I really enjoy your analysis of large timframe charts Peter thank you Amos, and Gary for facilitating biwi ty amos Amos yes, I eat only Matzho on Passover Amos GN handles me too Joe_K :) swetz ::smile Gary_Fullett thats all? Peter gn, bfn Gary_Fullett yikes Amos left. rhonda http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_trading.phtml Gary_Fullett ty Jerry You did satisfy me Amos, thanks for tonight. Gary_Fullett let em explain somethign to u Joe_K ( background Amos buying Israelian Whopper ) JOEL LOL Jerry Kelley lol Gary_Fullett amos was talking qauterly charts rhonda a guy stopped by today and wrote this article Joe_K lol JOEL yooze Gary_Fullett he was aaying Gary_Fullett cotton coffee sugar Gary_Fullett are weak commodties based on the weekly chart Joe_K I read some Rhonda rhonda si I am passing it along biwi lol Joe_K on Moon ? Joe_K lol Gary_Fullett comapred to the other complxes rhonda he is coming to visit the daychat Joe_K Cool Joe_K V something Gary_Fullett who rhonda? Joe_K Guy Gary_Fullett soamos is saying kent just be nice Joe, lol Peter you mean qtly (not weekly) right Gary? rhonda vincent troncone JOEL LOL kent Gary_Fullett the carts havent proven themsleves yet kent lol biwi lol Gary_Fullett yes peter Gary_Fullett so ona wekely and monthly to me a differnt pic Joe_K I'm always nice...even when Im mean..." Gary_Fullett remeber tiem frames Joe_K lol biwi lol Gary_Fullett so the qwaurtely swetz lol Joe kent ::biggrin Joe_K Tony tom left. Joe_K :) Gary_Fullett will take longer to turn up before the wekly Gary_Fullett right? Peter I undertand, just wanted to clarify, since you said weekly Gary_Fullett ty peter Jerry Jaa, minna-san oyasuminasai. Gary_Fullett so the wekly can be up Jerry left. Gary_Fullett and the quaterly Gary_Fullett down rhonda bye Jerry Joe_K Joe has a ton going on, and I aspologise as at times I need to learn more humility Gary_Fullett rundertand Joe_K So Joe_K Sorry Gary_Fullett this guy coming to this chat rhonda? rhonda yes Joe_K I get too Into it JOEL yes scooby I runderstand swetz he is coming tomorrow Gary Gary_Fullett why rhonda? Gary_Fullett who is he?> handles a moon trader swetz he wrote some article on Esignal site Peter even on the quartly, I can see accum, SOS, then retest, but the ranges are large, so it'ts harder to keep the perspecive kent stopped by before the chat started gary rhonda he popped in and just introduced himself swetz about using astrology to trade markets swetz he seemed like a nice guy Gary_Fullett why is he coming here? rhonda yes nice guy Joe_K Handles uses Lumberjacks and voodo handles to trade the moon for the stars kent lol H handles i use a barbie doll rhonda because he likes to trade too swetz maybe somebody told him about the site biwi moon wave correlation handles helps ease the pain Gary_Fullett how did he find this site? Joe_K I brought him in rhonda i do not know Alvin Gees Rhonda you let anyone stop by...LOL handles when i get smashed biwi helps mood swings in your sleep rhonda LOL Gary_Fullett moon stuff? biwi lol Joe_K Was scared of getting beat up by SMI guys Gary_Fullett amos Joe_K :( handles love the moon swetz he said moon stuff smokes Wyckoff any day of the week kent ::laugh Gary_Fullett wa staught by david weis 30 yrs ago folks Joe_K My Moon buddy Joe_K lol handles amos trades the 100 year cycle swetz just kidding guys biwi lol swetz wanted to get a rise out of Joe handles this is the year of the crash Joe_K :) Peter moonies? I think they live up near Greg and Kelley :) biwi signs in a butt swetz ::smile rhonda well I told him we are Open to all ideas but use Wyckoff mainly Joe_K Let him come in and smoketh Thu biwi signs in as butt Gary_Fullett open to most ideas LOL Joe_K Thou biwi just kidding Joe_K :) Gary_Fullett uranus i am not sure about rhonda lol JOEL ROTFLMAO Alvin we sure are handles 2007 year of the jesse crash Joe_K lol swetz lol Gary Joe_K Lord Gary_Fullett okay folks handles buying puts on everything Gary_Fullett any q about amos tonight? Joe_K We almost made it though without Jesse handles starting tommorow rhonda Night Gary Joe_K LOL Gary_Fullett or in general handles lol JOEL LOL handles biwi lol Gary_Fullett okay see u all tommorw Gary_Fullett day and or night Joe_K Jesses Revenge JOEL g n G money Alvin Gnite ALL Gary_Fullett ty u so much Joe_K Rated R Gary_Fullett good night swetz my great grandpa knew Jesse James Peter no question yet Gary, I need to reread it first handles buying puts on my house and the climate and lumber and coffee and cotton JOEL thank you Gary_Fullett left.