Gary_Fullett joined. mandrake joined. soilguy joined. Handles hi soilguy Gary_Fullett hi JP joined. soilguy hi handles, Gary DaveM joined. aw left. Joe_K joined. Art joined. warren joined. Amos joined. Al joined. Amos Hi warren greetings Amos Amos Gnowing warren Art hi Amos warren hi Al and all Al Hey Amos Amos Did you get the dollar charts Art y warren yes Gary_Fullett good morning amos Amos ok Amos gm Tom joined. Amos I am going to play Peter Lynch today Amos Magellan Fidelity and Vanguard Kelley joined. DaveM that should be interesting Amos How many of you used to watch him on Louis Rukyser WSW> Amos ? JimC y Handles i did DaveM not me....before my trading times DaveM read a number of his books Kelley y, warren I did -- mandrake y Kelley he used to wink alot warren Peter would not buy anything he did not understand Larry joined. swetz joined. Steve_W joined. Amos I used to think very little of him until I read an interview with him where he said that DaveM lived charts night and day too Kelley group captain Lionel Mandrake? DaveM though he was a fundemental/value Amos "while most peope go to sleep with Playboy magazines-- he goes to sleep with Long Term charts swetz hi Amos and all Kelley lol DaveM Sw ! Kelley hi Swetz swetz lol kent joined. swetz hi kelley and dave DaveM kent Larry hi swetz, and everyone Amos I am going to make it a little interactive today- I will try to challenge you to "SEE " the furutre and show you how futile it is kent hi Dave Gary_W joined. kent hi Larry swetz hi larry swetz and gary w Kelley hi Kent swetz and kkkkkkkkkkkkkeeeeeeeeeennnnnntttttttttttttt Art hi Kent kent ssssssswwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeettttttttttttttttttttzzzzzzzzzzzzzz :) kent hi Art Al hey Swetz,Warren and everybody DaveM sounds great Amos warren dollar charts, guys swetz hi al, art, and warren as well Gary_W hi swetz, et al Amos I am not ready to go into the Taylor thingy yet--but it is getting closer. Amos Thy stuff I sent you by George Angell is more crappy than I thought swetz lol swetz ::coolsmile Amos Ok' let us all look at the first dollar chart that I sent and gaze at it. Handles ready Handles 1 Amos I would like you to tell me what do you see. Amos I called it "MESS"--but let's see what YOU "SEE" in it. swetz it looks like the last rally retraced 1/2 of the previous decline Amos don't be shy. warren ease of movement down DaveM top possibly BC w/ DaveM ST Stockseller joined. Larry selling in apr/may, 40-50%retracement, then double top, then another selloff, then rally back to supply area where we are now DaveM down trennd w/ supply line swetz looks like SOW from 9000 to 8400 kent looks like it's been in a TR since April 2006 Al mess DaveM pre support in april swetz in downtrend using supply TL drawn at Nov/Feb highs Amos Now, please pay attention swetz and extending downwards Amos This is NOT intended to be an INDIVIDUAL CONTEST who hits any thing RIGHT DaveM possible re-distribtion TR to Oct Amos But rather to show you that a group of people can see many things in the SAME PICTURE DaveM more markdown to possible SC/VOB? DaveM back into TR Amos Every one of you "sees" something a little different. But it is the SAME PICTURE and ONE MARKET and ONLY ONE CM that manipulates it-- how come? Amos This is what I am trying to impart on you, to you and will try to emphasize it today Amos Here is what I see. swetz we all have our biases swetz which gets in the way of info gathering' Amos From the high in Oct of 2006 at 9200--THIS chart shows waves of decline. Handles left. Amos I don't care if it is "Elliot FIVE" or not-- but you clearly see that the market had one push to 88 Amos then a rally to 91 Amos then a strong and rather fast decline to 84 Amos then a prolonged and rather weak rally to 87 that took 1-1/2 months Handles joined. Amos You could even say that rally had a "double top" at 87 with one month space Amos then a declint to 82 and a rally back to 85 Amos This was printed BEFORE today's decline- I DID NOT KNOW that a decline is coming Amos But if you look at this chart with as "UNBIASED" eye as you can manage--all you can see is lower lows and lower highs Amos What else can you say? kent not much hugh joined. Larry latest selling decline less than previous one, and retracement back greater Amos One of you said a minute ago that in the last phase we retraced about 50% of the last decline from 87 to 82. Stockseller left. Stockseller joined. swetz yep Amos That is of course correct and we are , according to this chart IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT RANGE Amos One thing I try to EMPHASIZE here is that RANGE IS AN AREA OF BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND and therefor the LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE of your analysis of that S&D is LOW Amos and THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE IS THE LOWEST POINT OF KNOWLEDGE Larry . Amos Because you are in the MIDST OF THAT RANDOMNESS-- and the MARKET CAN GO EITHER WAY WITHOUT ANY RHYME OR REASON Amos You can argue with me to kingdom come--but to me this is one of the STRONGEST TRUTHS of the market Amos To ACCEPT THAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE--YOUR LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE IS THE LOWEST-- is a LIFE SAVER Joe_K Look on the bright side, one can be only 1/2 as wrong from the middle too Joe_K :) Amos Of course, we are trying with all out might to analyze vollume and use WYCKOFF principles to IDENTIFY which force is gaining-- but ON THE WHOLE-- RANGES IMPLY BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND Amos I am seious Joe, I am trying to make money and to identify areas with LARGER RISK and SMALLER RISK Joe_K Then your on the wrong chart Joe_K :) Amos I did NOT draw a trendline intentionally. Amos Just want to look at price and ask myself a most naiive question--CAN I MAKE SENSE OF THIS? Amos If my INITIAL ANSWER IS : "not much"-- I MUST LOOK ELSEWHERE. Amos The next chart is the same chart only enlarge a bit Amos I divulged my intention on it-- which is wrong dedcuctively--but try to ignore it and answer this Amos IF YOU SIT AND STARE AT THE CHART-- WHAT is, are the MOST ALIENT POINTS YOU SEE ON IT? warren salient? Amos OBVIOUS Kelley a low, high, 1/2 retracement DaveM the retest in jan Amos pleasse contribute swetz bar with the largest volume on the chart Handles sc followed by an AR swetz volume off the bottom model? kent moving average crossover warren yes point of highest vol DaveM to me it's the retest of what the others are speaking to Kelley 82 area was defended Amos Please pay attention to the process right now amongst you JP currently in a horizontal price band Amos this should be educational kent near term trend is slightly up Amos Read your responses and try to learn something from this Amos EVERYONE ANSWERS DIFFERENTLY DaveM looking forour own biases kent 1/2 retracement Amos IF YOU ARE A REAL WYCKOFF STUDENT YOU MUST ANSWER LIKE swetz above Amos bar with the largest volume on the chart kent didn't want to repeat, lol Amos If you eye does not pull you to the VOLUME and YOU DO NOT CATCH THE HIGHEST VOLUME day in DEC=-- YOU ARE NOT A WYCKOFF STUDENT Amos THERE IS NO SC Amos SC is panic selling on high volume and usually EXPANDED RANGE Amos The market just died at 82 , NO SUPPLY and then ONE DAY DEMAND CAME IN IN ONE DAY which is the LARGEST ON THIS CHART Gary_Fullett btw sorry to interpt yen retested creek in here.. Amos Basically, this is what I am imploring you to do in the group Joe_K REAL Wyckoff Students believe in Forecasting abilities Amos Gary --this or broke support and has a nice DOUBLE TOP from 122 on the Forex chart and is going to 118 Emile joined. Amos What I am trying to point out is that ONCE IN A WHILE the market DOES mark its territory and TELLS YOU its intention Amos That high volume day in Dec with CLOSE ON THE HIGH with large range-- TOLD YOU that for the foreseeable future Amos You have demand in the market and you should pay respect to it Amos It does not tell you how far the market will go and for what length of time Amos BUT IT DID TELL YOU SOMETHING Amos To pay attention to SUCH DAYS, WEEKS, MONTHS-- is very worthwhile for survival in this business. Amos Notice that when the market corrected on the first day of 2007-- It declined INTO THAT DAY and stopped. WHich told you that the demand that appered on that day in early DECEMBER Amos Was still there. swetz DB there Amos? Amos Market rallied into the hinge from where it fell in November-- which is STILL VERY STRONG POINT OF SUPPLY and will be there Until who knows--the 85.5 area Amos and went into a MONTH of NARROW RANGE and today broke out6 of that range into the 84 area Amos This is NOT HINGSIGHT Amos THIS IS LEARNING to IDENTIFY IMPORTANT POINTS ON THE CHART Amos MOST OF US are in this business which is called "THE FUTURES INDUSTRY" Amos One PHCKING LIE! Amos Those who TRY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE-- LOSE Amos The real traders are STUDYING THE PAST Amos Why was Peter LYnch such a GREAT FUND manager? Joe_K Thats Silly Amos Joe_K That IS EXACTLY what WE DO Joe_K TRY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE Amos Joe, Please learn to listen DaveM hi LOK Joe_K If you want Interactive fine, if you dont, say so Joe_K ok ? Amos Peter Lynch was a GREAT STUDENT OF THE PAST and that is how he could be such a good "predictor " of the future Amos Joe, I am not going to argue with you , period Joe_K WYCKOFF BELIEVED in PREDICTION POWER Joe_K AMOS Joe_K WAKE up Joe_K Want the boks ? Joe_K books Amos The point on that daily chart of the dollar said ONE IMPORTANT DAY Kelley y Amos ON MANY CHARTS YOU WILL HAVE CERTAIN POINTS that when they occur-- they WILL SUDDENLY REVEAL TO YOU THE INTENTION OF THE MARKET Amos If you LOOK FOR THOSE-- YOU WILL BE A WINNER OVER THE LONG RUN, even if it takes years-- But that is one of the secrets of success Joe_K " Forecasting Future Developements " chapter " Tape Is The Best Guide" Chapter Joe_K need more ? Amos When you read Market Wizards-- It is a SHOCKING STRIKE to see that each one of these 40+ multi millionaires are TRADING DIFFERENT MODELS Gary_Fullett joe please let amos lecture i am sure he will answer later Joe_K Here we ago again Joe_K Fine Amos Imagine going into a quadrupple bypass operation and EACH SURGEON will perform the heart operation DIFFERENLY! Amos People will die like flies! Joe_K 1 way conversation BUT interactive Joe_K Luv it Amos Imagine that you went to hear Yitzhak pearlman performing Brahms No. 1 violine concerto DIFFERENTLY EVERY TIME he played Amos ONE TIME PAVAROTI had a false Falcetto and he was BOOED OFF THE STAGE swetz tough crowd ::smile JP LOL Kelley lol Amos Imagine Indi car driver that will take the turns differently EACH TIME-- will he win the race? Emile My mother and father were at la scala that night Amos and here you have a business where EACH TRADER IS RAKING MILLIONS TRADING DIFFERENTLY-- HOW COME? Amos The next chart of the dollar is the weekly Amos Now we see that the 5 waves decline is part of a large range and we know that we had a significant low in the 81 area and we need to "analyze" and PREDICT what will be the next move Amos We see the same 5 waves decline (which from an Elliott point of view is OBVIOUSLY NOT BULLISH) Amos We see NR5 on the weekly chart at the RHS Amos RHS= RIGHT HAND SIDE-- very important Wyckoff term Kelley nr5=? swetz most narrow range bar in the last 5 weeks Amos But here the VOLUME is on the DOWN SIDE and NO VOLUME on the weekly chart to indicate that There is any demand coming in Kelley ty sir Amos NR= NARROW RANGE swetz ::smile Amos I used the term taken from linda, so I thougth it is common here Amos I drew a weekly downtrendline-- looking to see if the market RESPECTS IT Amos I told you that the longer I trade-- the LESS RESPECTFULL I am of trendlines. Amos WHY? Because the market is using them more and more to FOOL PEOPLE Amos TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE USING TRENDLINES and MOST OF THEM ARE DRAWN FROM OBVIOUS EXTREME POINTS-- DOES NOT WORK ANY MORE and WILL WORK LESS AND LESS in the future Amos You must take into account the HUGE EXPLOSION of the "E-signals" of the world Handles it all seems like a guessing game then......to me........ Amos At any rate-- sinde I want to see something that will be CLEAR IN THE WEEKLY CHART and I DO NOT SEE IT-- I MUST GO To the MONTHLY CHART Amos Handels, the purpose is to take the guessing OUT OF THE GAME! Amos If you guess-- you are a gambler and I am NOT A GAMBLER! Amos To me trading is a BUSINESS Handles i know....believe me i know...... Amos EVERY TIME I PRESS THE MOUSE-- it is like entering a BUSINESS PROPOSITION Amos I want to have an asuurity of at least 50 % that I am going to succeed-- otherwise-- NO BUSINESS Amos EVERy TIME you make a trade-- IF YOU ARE NOT SURE THAT YOU HAVE AT LEAST 50 % chance of sucesss-- YOU SHOULD NOT BE TRADING Joe_K Prediction, Forecasting is futile, but take guessing out of the game Joe_K Got it Amos IT DOES NOT MATTER if the trade works--BUT THE INITIASL CHANCE MUST BE , according to your estimation--BIGGER THAN 50 % Amos other wise STATISTICS and EXPECTED VALUE will KILL YOU Amos Lets go to the MONTHLY CHART Handles if trendline dont work anymore ......and we keep getting fooled more than ever because we are all on e-trade type of platforms......simple question.......what works??????? Amos Joe, instead of focusing on the semantics-- I advise you to pay attention to the wisdom (or stupidity) of my observations. JP secret Amos HARD WORK WORKS, Handles Handles ok thanks Amos What do you see on the monthly chart? Handles left. Joe_K Amos when you want to address something fine kent long, protracted drop, not much reaction Amos I am asking now for your observation on the monthly charty JP test of prior low weak reaction so far swetz 8000 major support held warren 8000 point held Steve_W reversal at 80 in 1996 swetz on the retest kent double bottom swetz then dollar rallied and retraced 100% of the last decline into 8000 kent near the lower third of a TR from 8000 and 9250 swetz now dollar is reacting and has reacted more than 1/2 of the last rally to 0250 swetz 9250 swetz see a potential TR developing between 8000 and 9250 Amos This time your observations vary a little less JP why JP less noise in the chart? swetz you good teacher Amos ::smile kent nore willing to repeat, lol kent more Amos Indeed the chart show 7 years of rise from 80 t0 129 and since 2002 we are in 5th year of decline which was more precipitous than the rise swetz lol kent Amos If you have NO BIAS you must say that this is basically a WEAK chart. Amos First it retraced 100% of the rally-- that is NOT BULLISH Amos Second the FIRST RALLY could not even master 38% of the decline Amos Third--the rally BARELY NICKED THE last high before the last low-- which is the MOST FUNDAMENTAL ELEMENT OF TREND REVERSAL Amos and the last decline is 5 waves Amos All you can say is that this chart is still forming a base ( IF NOT READY TO CONTINUE ANOTHER LEG OF DECLINE BELOW 80) Amos which we DO NOT KNOW Amos All I get from this chart is that this is a market that had a DOUBLE BOTTOM--and I showed you before that NUMERICAL analyisis shows 34 months decline and some VARIATION of the SKEWNESS towards the bottom Amos that is, the first rally that was longer than prefious rallies during the deline happened abthe double botttom Amos B ut this chart, from the MONTHLY PERSPECTIVE is still weak Amos More than that-- you cannot tell. . Therefore must go to the HIGHER TIME FRAME, go to the next charty Amos and I have written: "Here we start to get some more indication about the nature of the beast...." Amos When you look at larger charts-- many times the picture begins to CLARIFY. Amos That is why I said before-- GOOD TRADERS DO NOT PREDICT. GOOD TRADERS LEARN THE PAST AND WHEN THEY UNDERSTAND THE PAST-- THEY CAN TRADE INTELLIGENTLY Amos When I look at the 1992-1996 base building I see something interesting Amos This beast- took about 15 quarters to BOTTOM Amos I have NO OTHER MEANS OF PREDICTION but PAST BEHAVIOR Joe_K left. Amos the WHOLE WYCKOFF METHOD is base on the BASIC PRINCIPLE that---ABSENT OTHER MORE INSIDE INFORMATION about the forces of SUPPLY AND DEMAND-- THE BEST PREDICTOR OF FUTURE BEHAVIOR OF A STOCK is its PAST BEHAVIOR Amos Some would say RECENT PAST BEHAVIOR Amos not going to argue BBob swetz did say that today Amos If I did not think that you are an able group which shares amongst you important knowledge-- I would not be typing here Amos So the RHS of the quarterly dollar chart show 4 bars up and 4 bars down Amos I count from the top 20 bars so perhaps next quarter will be significant as bar # 21 Amos but the rally and the reaction of this base is so far symmetric-- Amos one year up and one year down Art left. Amos Of course since we are CLOSER TO THE 80 level--I am LOOKING for SIGNS OF SUPPORT and demand Amos I already told you that I personally do not think we are going into new lows and Today I covered most of my long euros. and had orders to sell it short between 13181 and 1323...but the IMPORTANT FACT IS Amos that THE DOLLAR CHAR IS STILL IN A PROLONGED BASE BUILDING and THE NATURE OF THE BEAST SAYS THAT it can stay anotherr 5-7 QUARTERS IN THIS RANGE Amos This gets even MORE EDUCATIONAL IN THE NEXT CHART Amos and I say SEMI-ANNUAL GETTING CLEARER. Amos When you look at the semi annual chart-- ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU SEE THE TRUTH, YOU SEE THINGS that get LOST in the smaller Time frames: Amos You see a huge OUTSIDE KEY REVERSAL in 1992 Stockseller left. Amos Folloqws immediately WITH A continuation bar THAT GOES higher Amos I said that one of the significant signs of a model is whether is VERIFIES ITSELF immediately! Amos we rally the next 3 bars and start declining. we decline 3 bars into 1996 and then in first half of 1997 we THRUST above the last supply point which is 8963 and the trend strats Amos IS this TRADEABLE? Amos Silly question Amos You have to wait 4 years for a SIGNAL? Amos Who can do that. Amos THIS IS NOT THE POINT. swetz question please Amos on the Thrust Amos I am bringing this as an important example how--The larger picture can show you IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE MARKET Amos go aheas steve Amos ahead swetz why wouldnt the 1st bar in 1996 be the buy signal on the Thrust after KR? swetz since it went above the prior bar high Amos because the first bar of 1995 was a large decline that closed at the bottom and the next bar was INSIDE BAR Amos I IGNORE INSIDE BARS swetz thx Amos, that explains a lot swetz ::coolsmile Amos Inside bars are basically RANGES and to me Range is LOW LEVEL OF KNOWLEDG Amos What I am trying to reapeat again and again is that if you study higher time frames-- ONCE IN A WHILE Y OU BECOME Jimmy ROGERS Amos He is the one in Market Wizards who said: swetz ::smile Amos "Once in a while markets offer you TREMENDOUS Opportunities and all you have to do is STOOP DOWN and COLLECT THE MONEY!" Amos and he is the one with the money and the huge bikes swetz yep, he nailed the bottom in Airline stocks Amos If you sift thru different situations and collect those where the picture where things are CLEAR--You are turning this trading into a VERY LUCRATIVE BUSINESS. JP once you have a nice piece of data JP how do you decide which timeframe to trade it AW joined. Amos If you stick to few markets-- you can go berserk waiting for those situations--but if you SCAN MANY MARKETS-- You can find those situations MORE FREQUENTLY and THEN each one of your trades has >50% to work Amos Rogers is also famous for his trip to China in remote areas on his Harely davidson or whatever and his broker was chasing him with cables in each hoter Amos Telling him that his shorts in RESORTS HOTELS is losing BIG. kent lol swetz lol JP thinks highly of grains going forward JP rogers Amos Finally he got tired of getting the same message in each hoterl and he wired the following message: Amos "COVER ALL RESORTS" swetz lol warren lol kent lol Amos and the last chart is the annual Amos The important thing about tha annual chart is that is was a saver from the hugh decine in the dollar when it washed all weak longs Amos In the semi annual the decline could be percieved as Jump and back above that thrust --if you go back to the semi you can see that Amos the decline came back to the point where we just about had that THRUST above the high of the last supply point of 1995 around 90 Amos If you did NOT have the yearly in mind-- that should have scared the begeezus out of you Amos But like I told you in the "CRASH" of 1987-- on the yearly chart is was a HIGHER HIGH, HIGHER LOW and HIGHER CLOSE (even if by only 2 dollars) Amos What I am trying to tell you, ( I see that Joe left-- too bad he has such EGO that does not allow him to listen to experience-that will cost him dearly one day) JP so the market wizards that all traded different models ~ what they did have in common is a grasp of the large trend ~ if you have that does not matter what your model is ~ as long it is sound ~ and you are on the right side of the big picture ? Amos Is that if you keep studying the past-- if you keep going back to larger time frames--the market will not be able to FOOL YOU BIG TIME Amos JP, the answer to your question is convoluted Amos First it tells you that THE MODEL YOU USE IS NOT SO IMPPORTANT IN TRADING SUCCESS Amos another thing it tells you, but that you have to glean between the lines-- is that ALMOST ALL OF THEM had a GOOD TEACHER early in their careers--that SHORTENED THEIR LEARNING CURVE Amos In my course, I spend time explaing the nature of learning curves--they basically CONTROL OUR LIVES Amos Each one of us has their OWN INDIVIUAL learning curve kent my learning curve seems more like a circle, lol JP that is deep kent swetz lol kent Amos Mine took 15 years of making money and losing money, before I could make a linving out of it swetz mine is an oval ::smile Amos IT DOES NOT HAVE TO TAKE 15 years kent lol Amos One thing I hope to help you with my "lectures" is to try to shorten your learning curve to 14!!! swetz lol Peter lol kent lol Al lol JP ::smile Amos At any rate, this is very important what I am trying to impart. Amos You DO NOT HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE YEARLY all the time BBob thanks kent and much appreciated JP y Handles joined. DaveM Thanks Amos in helping my sine wave...learningn curve lol Gary_W left. Amos But if you understand that the Truth comes from the past and IF YOU UNDERSTAND PAST BEHAVIOR-- you have better chance to participate in FUTURE BEHAVIOR--then you are well ahead of the game. Gary_W joined. BBob my learning curve is a roller coaster swetz lol Bob and Dave BBob other times its a rolling pin Amos If the dollar makes a yearly thrust--then it will probably go a long distance. swetz this is really good stuff Amos ! ! ! ! ! ! ! BBob or else a trash bin Amos Does that mean you should not scalp the dollar or the other currencies Amos GUYS if you saw my P&L you would fall off your TUCHES swetz lol kent lol Amos I trade the currencies many times a dasy and sometimes for as little as 6 ticks (Just to cover commissions) swetz probably like mine except yours got a lot more zeros ::smile Amos Ask Gary, He saw me clipping the bonds 10 contracts at a time several times a day for 4-5 ticks, back then at TOYCO Gary_Fullett amos u have time for some questions? Gary_Fullett i did indeed Gary_Fullett with p anf f Gary_Fullett but we cna have a special clas on p an df Amos I am a ver good scalper--but I am trying to tell y ou that if you GATHER FORCES AND COLLECT IMPORTANNT INFORMATION-- You can become a LINOS DEN Amos go ahead Gary Gary_Fullett but not all your secrects of course Joe_Kl joined. Gary_Fullett amos tiem for questions? Amos Point and figure time will come Amos ask away Peter Amos, I truly appreciate your sharing ideas that you have taken years to develop. Please understand that we are use to an interactive style and some people here have difficulty with lecture instead interaction. I enjoy the lecture style, but find 2 issues without the interaction: Question 1: how wou Peter Question 1: how would you prefer to resolve questions in our minds that come up during your lecture without slowing down your lecture flow?uestion 2: how can we best share our ideas that may differ from yours about charts to try to return the favor to share our market observations with you without m Gary_Fullett petter joe swetz other pelase ask Joe_Kl Amos , if you have something to say too me, do it when I'm here Ok ? Amos Peter, this is not so important. When I think it is important that I convey my idea--I do it Amos YOU DECIDE WHAT TO TAKE IN AND WHAT TO THROW Joe_Kl Ego has NOTHING to do with TECHNICAl VALIDITY Amos I told you that the SECRET OF SUCCESS IS TRADE SELECTON swetz Amos when you are doing your nightly work Amos THIS INVOLVES SELECTING WHAT YOU LIKE from MY "lectures" and throwing the rest to the garbage Joe_Kl TL are used to understand break of Trend, you cant say they are not valid, then talk about fundamentals of TREND changes and breaks swetz are you doing pretty much the same routine, you went over with us during your 1st lectures swetz just gathering info in each market using very large timeframes? Joe_Kl You cant sat Prediction is Futile, then preach about NOT guessing swetz then if you see something of interest, begin drilling down to the smaller timeframes? Amos swetz--WYSIWYG Peter understood thank you and I said the same thing from your first lecture Amos I am like windows--WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET Joe_Kl Things of this nature compromise your integrity with other Technical traders Joe_Kl Its THAT simple swetz ::smile Amos Peter how can we best share our ideas that may differ from yours about charts to try to return the favor to share our market observations with you without making them public? Perhaps by email? BBob chart #2 said something Amos Joe--don't worry about my integrity., I am a great masturbator kent lol Peter lol Joe_Kl God for you, I am in the business of Trading Joe_Kl Good Joe_Kl Not masturbation Amos Peter, start it in the group. Steve_W Thanks, very helpful for me Joe_Kl So you cant address 2 portions I bring up Amos If you want to mail me-- Fine Joe_Kl Then theres your answer Amos the IDEA IS SYNNERGY swetz lol Amos Handles I wish we could spend a day in the life........ kent Joe, I think it would be good if you re-read what Amos has said and look at what he is trying to say without trying to dispute everything he says you might disagree with, just use an open mind Amos Example Steve_W left. Alvin joined. Joe_Kl Trendlines DEFINE Trend Amos Wyckoff believed in Prediction in trading Handles and learn from a real situation...... Joe_Kl Address threse Peter Amos, ok I'm on it I try to be part of the group every day and be synergistic Amos Ibm is reaching 21 days tmw Amos If we have a daily thrust down after tmw-- IBM should decline Amos This is a model off the daily chart Joe_Kl Kent I think you should worry about Kent Joe_Kl Let Amos speak Joe_Kl Address REAL issues Amos AGAIN , what I am trying to EMPHASIZE IS THIS Joe_Kl Not Masturbation swetz I covered my IBM yesterday Amos, but looking to reenter swetz my short position Amos Sitting and smoozing abouty the market all day long- is not good BBob mother always said to make up before going to bed.. and it is valentines.. Amos Sitting and THROWING IMPORTANT INFORMATION about VARIOUS MARKETS in the room is VERY GOOD Amos Looking all day long for scalps-- is SO SO Amos Looking all day long for MAJOR MESSAGES OF MARKETS is VERY GOOD Amos I acutally should do it in a SNL format Joe_Kl So Amos where was Wyckoff wrong in his assumptions of Foresite ? I mean you do agree with voices of experience, where did Wyckoff go wrong ? Joe_Kl Please explain Amos Joe, did you ever read the ORIGINAL SMI COURSE? Joe_Kl It came AFTER Wyckoff Joe_Kl Im talking Wyckoff Amos LOL swetz the original course didn't Joe Joe_Kl Laugh Joe_Kl But dont address Joe_Kl Listening to the tape Amos Remeber the first day when Linda was here and she said that chapters 7 and 9 were significant? Joe_Kl Linda wasnt here swetz yep, my favorite ones Amos I read and re-read that stuff ALL THE TIME Joe_Kl That was BS Tom left. swetz like chapter 16 too swetz I do as well Amos swetz read chapter 7 all the time swetz ::smile Amos Again and again. I will repeat that until I give up on you and leave--- STUDY THE HIGHER TIME FRAMES ALL THE TIME Gary_Fullett chapt 7 is great Joe_Kl If you want to play games and fire dance, ok, just dont blame these misunderstanding on anyones EGO Amos ONCE IN A WHILE a CLEAR SITUATION WILL EMERGE and then YOU ARE WINNER Amos That has NOTHING TO DO WITH SCALPING ALL DAY LONG Amos But PETER LYNCH made BILLIONS FROM LONG TERM CHARTS Joe_Kl So where did Wyckoff go wrong assuming the Tape will tell you markets intent ? Joe_Kl ?? Amos If you keep sifting and weeding out situations-- you will come up once or twice a week with situations that will allow you to trade at HIGHER THAN 50%. Amos If you condition yourself to ONLY TRADE situations where your INTIAL chance of sucess is grreater than 50% you will be a winner Gary_W which part of the course. There are multiple units/ Amos If you keep betting less than 50%-- the VIG WILL KILL YOU Joe_Kl Where does assuming Accumulation does not lead to MarkUp ? And Foresite of this allows one to position properly ? Amos Gary W there are 27 chapters. Some are more important than others Joe_Kl Why use PnF with no foresite ? Joe_Kl LOL Joe_Kl Like shooting fish in a barrel Amos Joe, you are simply deaf. You really do not hear what I am saying. So be it Joe_Kl Just what I thought Joe_Kl Dance Joe_Kl Now Joe_Kl Blame it on Ego Joe_Kl You said what you said Amos Joe_Kl Not I Joe_Kl Prediction is Futile Amos Joe, you do NOT have to agree with me Joe_Kl Wyckodff disagres Joe_Kl I'll go with Wyckoff Gary_W Section 7 determing the trend of the market....? Joe_Kl Experienced Amos I will try to make some sense of Taylor next time swetz Guys - for folks that come to Gary's seminar swetz I will bring chapter 7 for you guys swetz to have Handles ok cool Joe_Kl And please do show us how TL's arnt used for breaks in trend Joe_Kl lol swetz it is PRICELESS JimC Thank you Amos Amos It is interesting that he is very tuned to the SEQUENCE Or the order or when the daily LOW and the DAILY HIGHS Amos are made in the day. Handles amos....what commod's have you been trading lately where the big picture seems clear..... DaveM is it long Sw? Handles on a monthly Alvin swetz do you have chapter 7 on PDF? Handles as an exmple.....i am curious to see what you may see kent great swetz, looking forward to it JP cool ~! you going kent DaveM Thinking Gary might be able to scan it to PDF and post....but probalbly copy right issues with doning that swetz nope, not long swetz I do not Alvin swetz sorry kent I sure as hell am planning on it, lol Alvin ic ok thanks Amos In other words--he is saying that the intraday noise can be filtered to the oreder in which lows and highs are being registered Amos this is significant-- it ties with the Wyckoff approach Amos Handles-that costs money Joe_Kl THERE is no NOISE in markets the TAPE will SET YOU FREE Handles gotcha Joe_Kl :) Handles was curious..... Alvin left. Handles to see what the overall world looks like to you...... Amos Handles, seriously, I just showed you in details today my type of analysis of the currencies Handles i know Handles and thank you for that Amos I trade the currencies heavily becuase during my day-- they are the most active markets-during tokyo and london opens.... kent when are you coming to the states, Amos? Gary_Fullett amos is NOT telling u specific trades JimC Look forward to your help with Taylor...again thanks Amos Gary_Fullett but how to look for proper trades Amos If I see a Semi thrust in the dollar-- i bevome a heavy trader Alvin joined. Handles i dont want specifics...... Amos If I do not see a clear picture I only trade 1-3 contracts Handles just glimpses Handles cool Amos If the 758 monthly double top in the BEANS HOLDS-- I have a big short and I do not care if I miss the first few cents Amos If we go above it-- I must wait Amos There are SO MANY MARKETS RIGHT NOW that the big picture is very Aluring- Amos OK 10 pm see you next time Gary_Fullett ty amos kent thanks Amos swetz GREAT STUFF AMOS ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Amos Sorry If I offend some of you--but I try to do my best Al Thanks Amos, much appreciated warren Thank you so much Peter thank you Amos, looing forward to it Kelley Thanks Mr. Cohen JP ty JP amos Handles thanks swetz I learned a lot from you today Handles leila tov swetz ::smile Amos Kelly if you changed that to Thanks Lt Cohen it will acronym to TLC Joe_Kl thanks for the laughs DaveM thanks amos for being patient with us newbies Joe_Kl :) swetz lol Kelley lol:) kent lol Gary_W amos, great as always hugh left. Amos GN Amos left. Peter bfn DaveM silence is deafing DaveM lol Gary_Fullett okay kent lol Gary_Fullett interesting huh kent yep Peter y Gary_Fullett amos is teeaching u Gary_Fullett how to look forr trades swetz yeah, tonights class was really good Al y DaveM yes Gary_Fullett NOT telling u the specific trade swetz better understood his Thrust after KR model Gary_Fullett I will tell u he is one of the best BBob can't get those bigger time frame charts for stocks Gary_W Swetz - do you have the exact title of chapter 7? Have the SMI course and Huston's book Gary_Fullett at point and f Gary_Fullett in fact I would say one of the best in the worls DaveM yes you can bob...tc2007 Worden kent worls = world Gary_W Looking forward to PnF. It is one of my many weaknesses swetz Vertical Chart Studies Part 1 I believe GaryW DaveM look forward to PnF swetz TC2007 has annual charts DaveM as this has been a 07 goal for me swetz and quarterly charts swetz for stocks swetz I am cuckoo for Amos PnF Kelley Amos mentioned his thoughts re: inside days, anyone catch that? swetz yes Kelley, he looks at inside days as low LOK kent yep, just ranges warren u bet DaveM ya ingnores them right Gary_Fullett p and f swetz because they are just ranges within DaveM just a TR swetz a larger bar Joe_Kl Revelation Joe_Kl lol Gary_Fullett will be a nl lecture in more detail DaveM so how does that explain Kelley ty DaveM NR4 interest? kent it's when it leaves that range that he's interested DaveM look forward to that gary DaveM sooner the better Kelley ty Swetz swetz NR4 important to me because is where can enter trades with low risk DaveM keep relying on Sw to help me through the pnf maze DaveM lol swetz anytime brother Gary_W thanks swetz - re: on chapter swetz lol Dave swetz anytime GaryW DaveM ok buddy :) Kelley ty Kent BBob whats better.. an nr4 or nr7 Gary_Fullett if u dont ahve the smi cd Gary_Fullett or hank pruden Gary_Fullett write kelly Gary_Fullett at knorris@ltg-trading .com swetz SMI CD is a must in my opinion Gary_Fullett i know u may not all agree with amos swetz Pruden CD is very good too Gary_Fullett but he is telling u what he observes DaveM i'm conduzeled Peter I think the chapters that Amos is refering are not on those CDs Gary_Fullett it is based in wyckoff swetz you are right Peter Gary_Fullett but he has his own observations swetz they are not DaveM I have SMI program is this different DaveM ? swetz there are in the course Gary_Fullett chapter 7 isnt there? BBob is it not unit 2 he's refering to swetz swetz nope BBob with 25 sections swetz yes Bob Gary_Fullett wow I have to get it for u all soem how BBob ok.. swetz I will bring it too seminar Gary swetz in Reno JP ::up BBob we're one unit away from heaven swetz just remind me swetz lol Gary_W I have both CDs from Gary_F along with the 5 unit SMI course swetz or Lake Tahoe, whereever it is swetz you got it then Gary Peter thank you Swetz, how many cookies :)? BBob its on determining trend by daily vertical chart correct? swetz it is section 7 of Unit 2 Gary_Fullett well we need to get it to u all swetz for you Peter - no cookies required swetz yes Bob swetz Chapter 7 is Wyckoff, himself, BBob man.. when I'm right I'm right.. lol Peter Great thank you sir, I llok forward to seeing you again :) swetz do a bar-by-bar analysis of NY composite 50 over a 2 YEAR PERIOD Gary_W That's what I thought. thanks swetz swetz ::smile swetz there are some little tidbits in that Section swetz that are priceless Gary_Fullett well i have to make sure u all ahve chapter 7 swetz Chapter 9 is great too Handles ok so let us know how we can get it Handles 7 and 9 BBob and throw in the rest for good measure... lol swetz but Chapter 7 is freaking AWESOME swetz read it 12 times Gary_Fullett maybe i can scan it Gary_Fullett and get it to u all swetz seriously DaveM great idea gary Handles nice swetz swetz going to read it at least 12 more times Peter I guess we'll see you in Reno , Handles :) BBob chapter 9 is about how a campaign is conducted Emile that would be great Alvin thanks gary Gary_Fullett will make sure swetz right Bob Gary_Fullett that we get all the info we can BBob I knew I was missing something .. and now swetz tells us 2 years later.. Kelley ty Gary, that would be great swetz lol Bob Handles yes peter swetz I talk about Section 7 all of the time swetz Wyckoff 3 laws at work swetz throughout that section swetz keep it under my pillow BBob they probably have mp3 of it too swetz if you understand that section, then you will KNOW WYCKOFF swetz that reminds me Kelley ok chart time, good night Folks, ty. Joe_Kl Why bother Swetz swetz SMI is going to start selling Bob Evans lecture tapes in MP3 format Joe_Kl If one cant seek to Predict Joe_Kl Of "0" use swetz you will like that section JOe kent hey swetz, is chapter 7 on the SMI CD gary has? swetz Joe DaveM see ya kelly swetz it's not kent BBob no kent.. NO NO NO swetz comes with the SMI course kent ok, thoght so :( kent thought Joe_Kl Swetz seriously, Wyckoff is good enough for me swetz me too Joe swetz reason Section 7 is so important Joe_Kl If Wyckoff said Foresight is the KEY Kelley gn Dave swetz that is Wyckoff himself kent then why all the "plus" stuff Joe? Joe_Kl Then it IS swetz doing the analysis of NY composite 50 Peter Joe, don't be bitter, as I have said all along, listed to what Amos says, whatever doesn't make sense to you, chuck it....he said that himself today Kelley thanks Gary, good night Joe_Kl Because Kent I canb increase Foresight with it kent ok BBob If I dont' have section 7 by midnight friday.. I might go.. girls gone wild swetz Joe - why do you let what Amos say bother you so much? Joe_Kl No successful traders EXIST without Forsite swetz LOL Bob Joe_Kl Because Joe_Kl A CTA holder swetz you have a good method Joe, so who cares what others think Joe_Kl Should teach properly Kelley 'Bob gone wild" Kelley lord Joe_Kl Trendlines kent lol Kelley Joe_Kl ect swetz I am sure some CTAs do think TLs are meaningless Joe_Kl Its about WHAT is correct Swetz BBob on my harley in winter too kel Gary_Fullett i dont use trend lines alot kent if 95% of traders fail, and they all use trend lines, then why do so many fail? swetz I think TLs are valuable Gary_Fullett i use the horizonatal ones Kelley :)lol Joe_Kl Here we go Gary_Fullett they are to a degree Joe_Kl Everyone doesnt use TL's now Peter these are Amos's observations, we can accept them in that vain or filter what works for us Gary_Fullett but they have theier own pupose Joe_Kl Your lying Joe_Kl You all do Joe_Kl I know you do Gary_Fullett i think one should draw proper Tkl's swetz David thinks TLs are valuable Peter I use them Joe_Kl I am here every day swetz but Amos doesn't Joe_Kl Ok ? Gary_Fullett but to me the more imp ones are the horizonatal ones swetz so what Joe_Kl Swetz kent I never said I don't use them Joe_Kl Listen Gary_Fullett they are valauable swetz Amos is only giving us how he trades Gary_Fullett and have thier good points and some bad points as well Gary_Fullett but amos is giving u his model Joe_Kl You cant say TL's dont work because of computer modernization Gary_Fullett u can dis agree Joe_Kl THEN Joe_Kl Talk about TRUE fundamentals of TREND change swetz maybe that is Amos's observation, we may not agree Joe_Kl OK ? swetz I for one don't Joe_Kl Common SENSE Joe_Kl Its NOT PROPER swetz but I do understand what Amos is getting at Joe_Kl Its my job to TRY to teach prope DaveM hey, he (amos)is willing to get up at 2 AM Joe_Kl proper DaveM and drop gold nuggets at our feet Joe_Kl Im up all night Joe_Kl So swetz agree Dave DaveM it's our choice if we wish to kent round and round we go, never solves anything arguing, lol DaveM pick them up or not mandrake in science, prediction is a probability statement based on past events and present circumstances. not same as having knowledge of the future. latter is absurd. amos DOES understand this. Joe_Kl He says I want interactive Gary_Fullett take what u wnat DaveM if you don't want to bend over then dont' Peter Joe, no need to pick on one think that you don't agree on and think everything he says is rubbish, just filter the stuff you disagree on Joe_Kl What does Interactive Mean ? Gary_Fullett and leave what u dont want swetz Joe - isnt your job to provide info on what has worked for you? Joe_Kl It MEANS THIs swetz that is all that I do here Joe_Kl ADDRESSING the issues Gary_Fullett he will answer questions Joe_Kl So we all expand Gary_Fullett at the end of his lecture Joe_Kl Im not the HEAVY here BBob It's like an old creatiionist once said.. chew on the good stuff and spit out the bones.. swetz I am not arrogant enough to think that my way is the best way Joe_Kl I seek TRUTH swetz that would be foolish of me Joe_Kl and CORRECTESS kent addressing isn't argueing Joe_Kl Technicals have laws Gary_Fullett but what amos says is the truth to him Joe_Kl Rules swetz right Gary Joe_Kl That govern them swetz only 3 laws Joe DaveM I think he teaches through a Flow of his materials and thoughts so for him (amos) Joe_Kl If a man says night and means day, I cant help that swetz that cannot be argued DaveM I think it's important to keep a flow to the lecture DaveM and q & A later... Gary_Fullett agree dave Peter no need to get hung up on one thing that you disagree with, and be blind to some others that you can learn from DaveM just my thinking on his approach Joe_Kl Thats fine swetz Joe - have you ever read Market Wizards? DaveM to imparting knowledge kent argueing all the time is distracting, and adds little if anything BBob I'm one hour close to going "girls gone wild" Joe_Kl But ADDRESS the ISSUES kent ok, I'm done swetz right Peter swetz lol kent swetz lol Bob Joe_Kl Swetz Im beyond Lab rats ok ? swetz just answer the question please BBob section 7 is going to keep me up the rest of the week Joe_Kl If I endorsed it Kelley lol Bob DaveM lol bob...shots all around :) Joe_Kl You know the answer Peter Joe, and the rest of us are lab rats? swetz the answer is yes BBob the harley is almost in the snow now Kelley lol swetz I know you have read it Joe_Kl Peter why do you do that swetz there are things in that book that I disagree 100% with swetz of traders who are 1000 times richer than me Joe_Kl Lab Rats referring to books Joe_Kl Ive read already and endorsed Gary_Fullett its just what amos feels is a god moel swetz but I am not so arrogant to tell them that they are wrong and I am right mandrake please respect the lecturer and respect the audience. we r here to hear amos talk about markets, and not appreciate wasting listeners'time w. arguments. questions are fine but not arguments. do that on your time. Peter I do that to help you reflect on what you say, so you understand why people may react the way they do Gary_Fullett i agree Joe_Kl Respect the lecturer when he respects me Gary_Fullett we can ahve a q a dn a later but best to listern Gary_Fullett its best for the flow Joe_Kl Talking about me when I leave is not respect Gary_Fullett for the ones that arent here Joe_Kl So swetz Joe, there are things in your trading that I may say is not proper Gary_Fullett he didnt talk to u behind yoru back Joe_Kl Your missing the point swetz like I am sure you could say the same thing about me mandrake joe, u were not disrespected. Joe_Kl You are mixing STYLES with TECH proper Joe_Kl Two diff animals JimC left. swetz well, remember you said to me that not using the open price on long term charts is not proper swetz I said it is swetz who is right Joe_Kl You CANT break a TL and not look at TL as valid Fundamentally for Trend Brake Gary_Fullett okay i need to do charst se u tommorw mornign y Gary_Fullett left.