Gary_Fullett joined. Joe_K Heres Gary Amos Gary not everyone got the literature? Gary_Fullett it was posted the charts Doc_K joined. Amos what about the written material abt money mgmt and the truth? Joe_K Gary, I think hes refering to Formulas, RISK, and through Forex commentary Gary_Fullett i didntr send it Gary_Fullett i can post it if u wish? Amos sad Gary_Fullett i didnt knwo u wanted it sent friend joined. Gary_Fullett i will send now Gary_Fullett on the site Amos Yes I did Amos ok Amos I thought you would , at least, Mail it to your subscribers Gary_Fullett kelly trying to attach an email to website any ideas? Amos fine Joe_K Do you want me to post it to Forum as well Amos or Gary ? Amos either that or send it to Sears Joe_K :) Joe_K lol Peter what program was the email created in? soilguy joined. JohnF joined. Peter can Kelly create a PDF from the document? warren joined. JohnF good evening all. handles joined. handles hello all JohnF hi handles. handles hi john Steve left. Amos That writing is good to have Gary_Fullett it will be posted to the site. handles hi gary and amos handles meal the beast from the east Gary_Fullett hi handles Gary_Fullett the quebec queer Peter I just spoke with Kelly, she's in the process of converting the file to a PDF and placing it on the site : stay tuned :) Gary_Fullett in a momenet Gary_Fullett it will eb posted Gary_Fullett ty peter handles thanks gary Peter hi John & handles Amos I want to say a few words today about the difference between money mgmt and risk mgmt and then discuss some chart insights Peter yw Gary handles hey peter Peter ok quiet now Amos is starting Art joined. Kelley joined. Gary_Fullett in a moment Art good evening Gary_Fullett u will eb able to acess the site for the email amos sent me for u Amos I sent Gary a small piece about the "truth". Gary_Fullett good evening art and all JohnF hi peter, gary, amos. Kelley good evening Folks Amos You, people in this room, are probably aware of this--but I thought I will emphasize handles kelleyyyyy Amos I had a freind, Andrew Schaffner who used to say Kelley hi Handles jc joined. rhonda Hi Kelley Amos YOU CAN NEVER OVER EMPHASIZE THAT WHICH IS OBVIOUS kent joined. Kelley hi Rhonda Art hi Kent handles hmmmm Kelley hi Kent kent hey Art, Kelley Gary_W joined. Amos This is a piece by that Chinese guy whom I admire and he is saying something amazing Amos Anyone anywhere who tends to blieve any government is liable to tell the truth SHOULD NOT BE A TRADER IN THE FIRST PLACE Dave_M left. vijay joined. Amos Kelley is it posted? Kelley I'm not sure Amos Gary_Fullett yes it si posted Dave_M joined. JimC Yes Gary_Fullett so please retrieve Gary_Fullett what amos send me Gary_Fullett on the Site Gary_Fullett ty amos Peter yes Amos6a Amos I cannot check it Tom left. Gary_Fullett it si on the site now Amos OK please open and read it. handles got it JohnF http://www.ltg-trading.com/Amos6a.pdf Gary_Fullett ty john Amos It is there to read and re read. I just want to emphasize the cardinal points Amos He is saying , and he IS Govenment (from his past hints) that a TRADER cannot afford to believe what they read Amos It ties, ofcourse with the whole idea of Risk transfer and manipulation--but the fact that much of the information is distributed FREELY--already should make you suspicious Amos We use the cliche or the true saying that EVERY PIECE OF NEWS is DISCOUNTED ONLY ONCE...Jesse said that Joe_K (Literature also available on Forum now, for printing or following along ) Amos Either BEFORE PRICE MOVE or AFTER PRICE MOVE Tom joined. Amos But this piece about the "truth" is even more sinister. Amos One of the main reasons NOT to read news--is because you NEVER KNOW it is true or not. Amos I urge you to read this litlle blurp several times. Amos Traders must think DIFFERENTLY than most other people if they want to survive. hugh left. Amos Again if 90% lose--then the 10% who make money consistently-- MUST THINK THE OIPPOSITE Of the crowd. Amos For SURE you cannot afford to think of "NEWS" without considering WHAT HAPPENED TO PRICE PRIOR to that piece of news vijay Ques Amos Amos If prices moved--Chances are we already discounted them Amos Quo Vadis, vijay Steve joined. Peter lol vijay This 90%, is this 90% of the common public or all traders (including funds, banks etc) ? vijay Quo Vadis? what does that mean? Joe_K Good flick Amos How do you know to separate the "common public" from all traders? hugh joined. Peter "Where are you going? handles shhhh...let the man speak Amos At any rate it is good to remind yourself , once in a while , that what you read vijay I am common public. Amos Is many times part of the manipulation. Amos In this room, vijay all are LORDS Amos The next piece is a blurp about money mgmt. Amos This is a VERY SERIOUS matter and demands several hours of discussion hugh left. Joe_K ( disambiguation Where are you going ? ) Amos Here, all I want is to throw you a simple presentation of how to think correcly abouty the issue of mgmt Amos I saw it once somewhere ands I like it Amos Please read it with me Peter for newcomers its http://www.ltg-trading.com/Amos6a.pdf Amos He defined Money mgmt as the DOLLAR ALLOCATION for a particular trade as PERCENT OF YOUR EQUITY swetz1 joined. Amos In other words, if you have 100,000 then you know that $1,000 is 1% Amos If you want to be like Michael Steinhardt and use 1% of your money for ANY TRADING IDEA===then you know how much you can risk Amos on it. Gary_Fullett ty peter hugh joined. Amos Risk mgmt is defined here as the NUMBER OF CONTRACTS YOU ARE ALLOWED TO TRADE according to your equity. handles left. handles joined. Amos If your analysis defines the stop loss as "X" number of dollars then, almost by definition== That 1% or 1000 dollars divided by the DOLLARS OF THE STOP is the NUMBER OF CONTRACTS YOU CAN RISK Amos Again let us take the examply I mailed Amos If you have 1,000,000 and you want to risk 1%--you can allocate 10,000 dollars per IDEA Amos Remember that trading corn and Soybeans is the SAME IDEA because they are both grains, and most of the time move in tandem Emile joined. Amos If you think that the CORRECT STOPLOSS for the trade is 2,000 then maximum number of contracts you can afford is 10000 divided by 2000 which gives you 5 (!!!) contracts. kent for a $100,000 account JohnF 1mill JohnF kent Amos I picked arbitrary numbers. But it is rather amazing that according to this-=- with a Million dollars in your account, if you want to conduct CORRECT MONEY AND RISK MGMT--and you allow yourself aome large leeway with your stop-- ALL YOU CAN DO IS Amos 5 contracts rhonda Emile we are using this link right now http://www.ltg-trading.com/Amos6a.pdf kent ok, stand corrected Amos I have people with 5000 who want to trade 10 contracts with that amount. Amos Please realize that MOST PEOPLE get CRASHED NOT because of bad analysis Amos but due to "over trading" crapgame joined. Emile ty Amos Most people are simple TOTALLY IGNORANT of wha the TRUE NUMBERS of CORRECT DISCIPINE mena Gary_W left. Amos mean Gary_W joined. Gary_W left. Alvin joined. Gary_W joined. JohnF http://www.ltg-trading.com/Amos6a.pdf Is the link on money management we are looking at guys. Amos I am afraid this does not go too well by writing. Had you heard my voice and my stern intonations--that would have gone better. Joe_K This is Gospel in a nutshell stuff rhonda ::smile Joe_K Goes VERY WELL Amos At any rate....you must realize that if you DARE trading beynod what BASIC NUMBERS OF RISK AND MONEY MGMT allow you-- you will bust handles "over trading"....hmmm.....good point vijay eye opener indeed Alvin left. kent so under capitalization is the main reason 90% fail? Amos handles, "over trading" is a cliche and people tend to scoff at it Peter yes Amos, your "voice" came across...load and clear Joe_K and ignorance Amos THIS IS VERY CRUCIAL handles tell us more about it Amos Another point that is somewhat related to this is the fact that you should NEVER TRADE WITH ONE CONTRACT Alvin joined. Amos If you trade with one contract-- it does not allow you to take partial profits when the market gives them to you (say market rallied to a near term resistance and retraces) Amos and STAY FOR A POTENTIAL LARGER MOVE when it wants to run Amos People enter a market PERFECTLY and then leave much of the money on the table---HOW COME? Amos the problem is NOT WITH THE ANALYSIS Amos it is with POSITION MGMT handles right Dave_M yy Amos If you have 2 contracts (minimum) and you want to take profit on a small move because you are afraid the market will retrace (which it DOES MOST OF THE TIME)-- then all you have to do is TAKE PROFIT ON ONE contract. This money is yours--and USE CURIOUSIY to make money with the second Amos I will tell you a true story about JOHN STAFFORD Amos He used to own the WHOLE 39th floor of the CBOE Amos My friend Danny Torchman used to work for him and I used to visit the office once in a while. Amos First thing when you entered that PALACE you would be shocked at the number of COMPUTERS he had there Amos I asked Danny, what was his monthly payment for the equipment alone? Amos $200,000 Amos Imagine opening your office on the first of the month with ALREADY 200k debit on equipment alone Amos One day one of his analysts came to him (around August 1987 and asked him to buy very cheap OTM puts Amos He bought a few ghousand at 25 cents! Amos When the market broke first time around sept-- those puts jumped to 2 dollars. swetz left. Amos The analyst who mad 8 times his money RAN to Stafford and shouted--TAKE PROFITS we just made so many hundreds of % profit. Amos Can you imagin at what price did John Stafford Cover his puts? Amos askig Amos i am asking you swetz1 $4 kent don't know Amos guess vijay scared to take a guess!!! handles 10$ JulieH 10 cents? kent $5 Whit 0 swetz1 he must have covered at 1987 bottom vijay it expired!!! Amos guess a price vijay $10 Steve .20 swetz1 $20 Amos 99 dollars kent $100 handles wow Amos think about this story. handles thats balls handles be a pig handles lol handles lesson 1 Amos When he was asked how did you know when to cover? vijay kent - congrats Amos he said: Amos I went to the floor day after day and looked in the eyes of the traders. Amos When I saw them totally WHITE AND FROZEN like a dear on the highway-- I know we are at the bottom kent lol swetz1 GREAT STORY Amos ::smile Amos Now think for a moment about this true story. He made 12 million dollars on that trade ( which he PROMPLTY LOST going long the BIOTECH SECTION before it COLLAPSED) Amos Did he know to go short? NO handles lol Amos His NALAYIST TOLD HIM handles he knew to manage the trade handles once it was on handles that time...... Amos The SMART ANALYST MADE 8 times his money while Staffor made 400 times his money Amos WHAT ALLOWED HIM TO BE SUCH A GOOD TRADER? Amos There is ONLY ONE THING I CAN CALL IT Amos CURIOSITY! Amos ?????????????? Amos Can you show me ONE MURPHY book that talks about the MODEL OF CURIOUSITY? swetz1 he was curious to see how high it could go? Amos In other words--many times your PROFIT IN THIS BUSINESS IS HARDLY Correlated to your ANALYTICAL POWERS. Amos There are so many side elements that go into profitable trading that are NOT DISCUSSED in any book Joe_K I calculated he covered Puts at 98.99999 Joe_K :) swetz1 ::smile Joe Amos The concpet of having multiple positions and letting part (even small) of your money play with OTHER ELEMENTS Of the market is my way of solving this Amos In other words if you have 2 contracts you can afford to take profit on one and then let the other one ride, Amos if it goes back to entry point-- you can scratch and STILL HAVE PROFIT Amos if it RUNS further-- you HAVE PROFIT (half of what could you have had if you did not take partial profit)--but it is better than ZERO Amos This has more to do with the psychology of the trader and a very important element of trading Amos PO Amos POM Amos Peace of MIND handles yesss handles POM handles like that Amos It is a very important element of Trading Alvin yes Amos If you do not have peace of mind--it affects the rest of your analysis, patience, composure etc. JulieH I like the idea in general: bank half to satisfy profit motive and let the rest run to satidfy curiosity Amos So little money mgmt trick can , at times, contribute to your profitability curve more than good analysis Amos Of course if you have multiple positions-- you MUST TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS Amos Very few people can PYRAMID with the market Amos most people are afraid of LOSING PROFITS! Joe_K takes bucks Amos Jessee says on page 139 that you MUST REVERSE those feelings Amos BUT THE TRUTH IS THAT IT IS UN HUMAN Whit Afraid of losing profit, but also cavalier with respect to risk Amos Below that peice of nuber of contracts there is a blurp on ruination theory. Amos Linda speaks a lot about it Amos Please read it and try to inculcate Amos Then below this there is a piece on Forex. Alvin what are u reading Amos? Amos Some of it is very true. This is NOT GOSPEL , but I thought I will share with you Amos Bible, Alvin Joe_K I think you just remove the emotion with a well thought out plan, and stick to your risk, one takes care of the other, and you'll do fine on average Alvin ok kent http://www.ltg-trading.com/Amos6a.pdf Amos I am not sure how much currencies you trade in Gary's room--but if you do trade CURRENCIES-- You must read some of this stuff. Alvin k Amos If we get into currencies trading--I will discuss many aspects of that market in details. Amos Again must remember that this is OTC market--forex is Amos Over the counter means that you MUST TRADE with a specific bank--which means that the BANK IS TRADING AGAINST YOU and KNOWS YOUR POSITION Amos When your opponent knows your position it is almost like playing poker with someone who can read your hand. Amos What is your chance to win? very slim Joe_K lol Amos oooooo slim Alvin wow that interesting Joe_K I like the Media aspect you brought up as well Amos I thought I would want to discuss in details, but now I do not feel like it Amos so let us go to the charts i sent and try to smash some more illusions Amos Look at the charts I sent Amos First one is Beans Amos I hope you can read it, or magnify it handles yes Alvin left. Amos I did not spread it this time Amos The first one is MONTHLY BEANS Amos I think I showed it a few weeks ago when I was talking about the fibonacci count. not sure kent yes Joe_K y Amos But try to go with me on this one step by step Alvin joined. Amos afeter the market dropped from 9 bucks to 4 bucks 1997-1999 Amos we remained in a trading range for 2-1/2 years between 4 and 5-1/2 Amos Now when you go with me over the lines--please TRY TO BE HONEST WITH YOURSELF. Amos I NEVER Go over a chart looking for "HOW EASY IT WAS TO BUY HERE AND SELL THERE" Peter read from left Amos I always try to imagine ME BEING THERE WITHOUT THE HINDSIGHT that is available to me NOW Amos During 2000 and 2001--many people tried to go long, because, as Joe likes to say--BUT AT 4 Dollars beans YOU CANNOT GO WRONG Amos Well, let me tell you another true story that Susan Abbott once wrote Amos and I cannot find the copy. I even contacted her about it Amos She said the Richard Dennis said this: Amos " I lost more millions of dollars going LONG SUGAR at 5 CENTS.." Amos than I made GOING SHORT SUGAR AT 45 CENTS Amos HOW , the hell, can that be? Amos Sugar never went below 2.37 cents Amos How can you lose MILLIONS OF DOLLARD on a decline of 2.63 cents? kent trading range chop chop Amos He kept buying millions of 7 cents calls Amos They ALL EXPIRED WORTHLESS for about 3 years! Amos there is a LAW IN MATHEMATICS that says: swetz1 market time wasnt the same as Dennis time swetz1 ::smile Amos If you multiply a LARGE number by a small number--YOU STILL GET A LARGE NUMBER Amos Why do you think so many people go broke in the PENNY STOCK MARKET? Amos The Denver one collapsed, I think the Vancouver is still operating Amos Because if you buy million shares at 2 pennies it is still large some of money Amos People go crazy about CHEAP STUFF and they plunge. Amos It is amazing how much money is lost on CHEAP STOCKS Joe_K I'll buy beans at 400 every time, any year Amos Then you may become Richard dennis one day, Joe Peter stock are worse, they can go to 00 Joe_K I doubt it Amos What I am trying to tell you is that if YOU LOSE YOUR PATIENCE in a range and try a LARGE POSITION, dreaming that you will make a fortune-- you may NOT GET TO THAT POT OF GOLD Amos Again it is MONEY MGMT Amos At any rate let's go forward. Amos Comes 2002 and the market BREAKS OUT OF THE RANGE. Amos Every one and his sister are LONG handles like now Amos market goes to 6 dollars around august 2002 and stays in a small range for 8 months handles lol Amos Now imagine that you are sitting in a room like yours and just saw a move of 2 dollars in beanse and you are DYING TO BE LONGH Joe_K Can you count the times (Years) beans been under 400 and times they been above ? Them good odds No thought envolved in taking that trade Amos and the MARKET GOES NO WHERE Amos Joe, I am taling MY ACCOUNT NOW, NOT PHILOSOPHY OF PRICES Amos taling Amos talking JulieH Joe if beans go now to 4.00 do you really want to buy? They went there for a reason Amos At any rate comes April of 2003 and the market makes HIGHER HIGH! Joe_K Understood But one takes advantage of Extremes in Price, or they are in wrong business Joe_K Its Automatic Julie Amos we go to 6.50 and there is not ONE MECHANICAL SYSTEM THAT IS NOT LONG! Joe_K yes Amos BELIEVE ME Amos EVERY "SPECULATOR" is long. Amos Now the market does a 1.20 sharp decline. kent time to go short, lol Whit this makes sense Amos How many people are still long? swetz1 most got shaken out Nick left. swetz1 I would have Amos Try to be honest. If you are long around 6-6.20 where is your stop loss? handles me too swetz1 ::smile JulieH more bought because "it will go back up" handles 590 handles 620....would be 590 handles for me Whit most are below 500 swetz1 my stop would have been below the monthly bar low Joe_K Your stop should be under your last Creek, ( currently Ice ) Gary_W most would use 10% less swetz1 so the shakeout bar would have stopped me out Amos The truth is that if you are ALREADY LONG then by the DECLINE OF JULY 2003 you are so FRUSTRATED with yourself that MOST LIKELY WHEN IT GETS BACK TO YOUR ENTRY POINT--YOU WILL GET OUT Amos swetz is telling the TRUTH! Stockseller joined. vijay ?? Amos And then the market ROARS 5 dollars NON STOP vijay i lost the feed Amos How do you participate in this? vijay ok Joe_K Intelligently Joe_K Buy strength swetz1 I would have tried to buy a retest of the shakeout bar Amos This market took 2 years to slowly get out of a 2 year range, spent enough energy shaking out almost everyone and then swetz1 maybe a get it and maybe I dont Amos RALLLIED NON stop to almost 11 dollars. Joe_K 1060 the China Syndrom Joe_K lol Peter now most people are trying to short too early :) Amos Then we can go forward and ask-- how many of you could have gone short at 10 dollars and ride the ONE MONTH DECLINE from 10 to 6 in 2004? Joe_K Actually ? handles i know some that did..... Joe_K Did handles like my family Joe_K lol handles fyi handles serious handles 10$ beans Amos What I am trying to point to you is that if you look at previous charts and you IMAGINE YOURSELF riding them--You are deluding yourself Kelley not I handles was a gift in their mind Joe_K Common Amos Joe_K Some of us CAN Joe_K and DO Steve i was in S in 88 when it went limit off several days in a row.... there was NO STOP.... sometimes you can't get out. IT happens Joe_K Or it be silly to be in this business Amos The only one who could have ridden the decline is a hedger. not a trader Amos OK Joe--you are unique and I am not talking about mavericks like you. Joe_K Well if thats what you believe Joe_K then ok Amos only about mortals like us Joe_K Thats not imortal Joe_K Its knowing your TR Joe_K and doing the right things Amos What I am trying to tell you is that you should NOT dream of riding all the grand moves Amos What do I mean by that? handles right Joe_K I dont swetz1 buying at bottom and selling at top Joe_K But I am riding enough handles getting the whole move handles danger zone in your way of thinking Joe_K Or again, why bother ? Amos If I was long the beans in 2003-- I would have BAILED OUT at 9 dolars because I would be sure that it was resistance and I am NEVER LONG at resistance JulieH all traders dream of big moves but not all can be a part of them. We get that Joe_K Had I known this business in 99 Joe_K I wouldnt be here kent I've only done it once, was sweet, lol Joe_K My first trade was long 6 Crude at 99 Joe_K I lost 6K Joe_K and was out Amos If I was short at 10 dollars in 2004-- I KNOW I would have taken my profits at 8000 dollars, being SURE the market will "TEST" the highs Joe_K missed it ALL Amos IT IS ALLRIGHT Joe_K in 99 at 1100 Joe_K sorry Amos You must learn to accept your WEAKNESS and not try to be a SUPERMAN handles good point Joe_K Yes and I agree Amos You must learn to opoerate within your LIMITS Amos Each one of us has their limiatations. Joe_K But you also have to advance learn from prior mistakes kent good point swetz1 I really your statement amos kent like Amos If you accept them--You will learn to be at peace with yourself. Amos NEVER REGRET A MISSED TRADE. kent POM Amos It was NOT A MISSED TRADE Amos YOU DID NOT THINK THE MARKET WILL GO THERE, Otherwise you would DO IT Amos SHUDA, CUDA, WUDA DIED WHEN DID NOT WAS BORN Amos Remember this maxim Joe_K You have to progress, there is a point where you must step up, or forever you will be a slave to your demons of fear Amos This of course appies to the size you are trading Amos When you read about Baldwin in Market wizrds--there is a piece there about his size. Amos This guy went from 5 cars to 100 cars in a VERY SHORT TIME Amos Let me tell you-- 5 cars trader is not a 10 car tradr is not a 50 car trader is not a 100 car trader Amos Someone can be a VERY GOOD 2-5 contracts trader and FAIL MISERABLY being a 20 car trader. Joe_K Only takes 1 Amos Size DOES MATTER here Stockseller I disagree Amos This is Beyond the straight forward calculation before of money mgmt Stockseller You need to trade the same way with one contract or 50. Amos This has to do with your STOMACH Joe_K Pick your spots to apply greatest leverage Stockseller other wise your toast. Joe_K Not true Stockseller Your stomach has nothing to do with this. Joe_K Different ballgame Joe_K Large money will settle for 6% a year Joe_K 28-48 Amos Joe, don't say NOT TRUE--just say this is NOT TRUE FOR ME Stockseller exactly Amos I am sharing MY EXPERIENCE and it is TRUE FOR ME!@ kent trading is largely a mental game, and size of position does affect mental state Joe_K Well if you think Buffet and I trade the same then ok Peter great point Amos Stockseller it's not true for somepeople or rather most people. Amos Go down to the next chart in the yen JulieH Size matters: If you have 1 lot and down 500 it is less worrisome than 10 lots and down5K. It matters. JohnF Amos is right...every trader has their nitche. One trader may be better no matter how many contracts JohnF one may be good at only small amount of contracts and so on... Joe_K SIZE matters Stockseller Com eon this is sillyness Joe_K though Amos imagine you are short the yen after it dropped beflow 9500 Amos look at the move: Joe_K How do you think Banks can play the public ? Joe_K SIZE Amos it drops 4 weeks from 9780 to 9400 and then staysa 6 weeks sideways. Amos you are short ands NOT MAKING ANY MONEY swetz1 please let Amos speak folks ::smile Amos then it drops another 3 weeks (march of 2005) from 97 to below 9250--that is 5 handles--6000 dollars profit per car and RALLIES for 4 weeks Amos to a LOWER HIGH Amos then drops 11 weeks almost non stop and makes what looks like a SELLING CLIMAX with AR and ST for 8 weeks Amos and then it changes is characteristics of the palst 6 months ands starts a STEADY , PERSISTENT DECLINe for 13 weeks Amos Any one who does not understand HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO STARY WITH SUCH A MOVE --is a FOOL crapgame left. Amos This market declined from 98 to 90 (10k move) in a series of reactions and rallies in which the decline happend in about 11 weeks and the REST OF THE TIME THE MARKET EITHER RALLIED Amos OR TRADED SIDEWAYS--and this CONDITIONS YOU WHETHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT! Amos AND THEN THEM MARKET ALTERNATES! Amos This is very important folks Larry joined. Amos If you look at long term charts you will see that the market USES PEOPLE"S SHORT TERM MEMORY FOR MANIPULATION Amos The market CONDITIONS people to get used to a CERTAIN BEHAVIOR, or PATTERNS and since most poeple tend to VIEW THE NEAR PAST on their chart--THE EXPECT THE SAME THING TO HAPPEN Steve yen larry Amos Once the market goes into ANOTHER PATTERN--THE LOSSES ARE HUGE swetz1 yep Amos, I have been guilty of that myself Larry thx steve Amos between Jan and JULY the pattern of the yen was a SERIES OF RALLIES AND REACTIONS Amos then in OCTOBER it went into a STRAIGHT LINE! Amos It is IMPOSSIBLE TO ANTICIPATE SUCH A BEHAVIOR. Amos The ONLY WAY TO DEFEND AGAINST THIS is to BE READY FOR AN ALTERNATE STATE OF MIND Amos I am NOT recommending LSD, but AN OPEN MIND swetz1 lol Joe_K Amos if the YEN is this ate up, Why bother trying to trade it ? Just pick another market Joe_K :) Joe_K Why try to fight illogical battles Amos Of course ONE OF the ELMENTARY TRICKS to overcome this shortcoming is ALWAYS LOOK AT THE LARGER TIME FRAME and on the SEMI ANNUAL the YEN WAS MUCH MORE ORDERLY. Amos Joe , I picked this on the yen-- the BEANS DID THE SAME THING! Amos The next chart is copper. Amos I mentioned last time the "secret" of the 50% point Amos This is a good point. Amos Mind you.... I am NOT showing these charts with the idea of showing you "HOW TO TRADE THIS OR THAT" handles tell us again....needs to be driven in the thick skull Amos I am interested in PRINCIPLES that govern the world of trading and one shoudl be aware of them Peter last week's log Handles Amos I put the fibonacci retracement from the low in 2002 to the high at 4 dollars. Amos and I was looking to see IF THERE WAS A SINAL that could have given me an inking how high that market could go. handles i know peter thanks Amos I AM NOT LOOKING TO PREDICT THE MARKET. I ONLY WANT TO TRY TO FIND INFORATION THAT WILL GIVE ME ANY CLUE WHATSOEVER Joe_K lol Peter did you have a P&F count Amos? Amos Well scroll down to the next one which is on the weekly with the same retracement Joe_K ( Meal Beast 216.70 ) Joe_K :) Amos Peter--NO COUNT GAVE YOU 4 dollars!!!! handles lol Peter ty Amos You see the trading range of January 2006. handles y swetz1 yes Amos It is comprised of "BC" , an UT and then IT ERUPTS AND GOES BALLISTIC. Amos Listen CAREFULLY and keep it to yourselves. Amos MANY TIMES when the market gives you an IMPRESSION OF A STOPPING ACTION and THEN VIOLATES IT--CONSIDER THIS ACTION AS HALF WAY MARK!!! Amos If you looked at the market around 3 dollars and asked yourself--WHERE CAN THIS BEAST GO? swetz1 thx Amos ::smile kent good info :) Alvin left. Amos and you SAID TO YOURSELF--"WHAT IF THIS TRADING RANGE IS THE SECRET G SPOT?" swetz1 ::smile Amos You would draw that fibo and it would tell you that the market CAN GO TO 4 dollars. Amos YOU HAD THAT KNOWLEDGE! Amos DID IT MEAN THAT THE MARKET WILL GO THERE? swetz1 nope Amos ABSOLUTELY NO!!!! Amos But it gave you a POSSIBILITY. Stockseller left. Alvin joined. Amos If you said to yourself--I AM NOT TOUCHING THIS BEAST UNTIL I SEE WHAT IT DOES AROUND THAT "DOUBLE" at 4 dollars-- you would have saved yourself a lot of agony Amos Peter asked me before about P&F. Well I had a "CLEAN COUNT " to 3.40 AND i went short there. Amos This WAS A BAD MISTAKE. Amos Thank G-d I useds good money mgmt and did not get killed and actually made money in the end--but I DID NOT LOOK at this 50% potnetial point Amos ONE THING you MUST UNDERSTAND. EVERY THING I TELL YOU HERE IS FROM SCARS ON MY OWN BACK Amos If I say something about a market--I EXPERIENCED IT! Amos It does NOT mean that YOU have to go thru the same OBSTACLE COURSE-- Amos After all the PURPOSE of such sharing is PRECISLY TO SHORTEN your learning curve--without haveing to SUFFER THE PAINS of learning that I or someone else had to go thru Amos BUT IT IS ALL BORNE OUT OF MY OWN LOSSES swetz1 this is why your lectures are so appreciated here Amos That is why I can talk with modicum of CONFIDENC about what I am asying because i HAVE THE P&L to show you how I lost on it swetz1 ::smile Amos At any rate this is a very valuable piece of chart reading Amos I do NOT TRADE OFF of it. Amos This is NOT AN ENTRY MODEL Amos If I want to trade, I still need my thrust, my dt db, My thrust after KR Amos My VOB Amos My Rally without a cause on the P&F chart Amos BUT IT IS A LARGE ROAD MARK Amos If I see the market going a certain way and on the way does SOMETHING UNUSUAL Amos Such as: Amos TRADING RANGE Amos LARGE VOLUME Amos LARGE REVERSL DAY OR WEEK that is negated Amos I ALWAYS PUT A FIBO from the Beginning of the move to any of 3 poins. Tom left. Amos either the Bottom of that area, or the MIDDLE of that area or the BREAK OUT OF THAT AREA. Amos Many times this is the secret message of the "CM" if you wish to his cronies--THERE IS WHERE WE ARE GOING Amos What is most amazing on these moves is that the SHARPEST MOVES happen in the LAST 20% of the move. When EVERYONE IS SURE we are OVERBOUGHT or OVERSOLD--SMASR MONEY IS RAKING IT Amos And we, the "public" are losing. handles like meal....the beast handles lol Joe_K :) Amos Some times that point is the BACK OF THE Jump and back Amos This is GOOD to consider Amos What I would hope you do--is LOOK FOR SUCH POTENTIAL POINTS AND BEHAVIORS...SHARE IT WITH THE GROUP and USE IT AS ANOTHER PIECE OF INFORMATION GATHERING. Amos Again guys. Amos You have a UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO BEAT THE MARKET handles many eyes Amos Gary is prodicing you with a BAR WHERE YOU CAN ALL SIT< DRINK< SHMOOZE BUT ALSO GATHER INFORMATION and SHARE IT WITH EACH OTHHER Art left. Amos If you go about doing this--all you have to do is hit upon 2-3 situation a week where the LOK is high--and you will all make momney. Peter ::eye ::eye ::eye ::eye Amos Some of you , like Jow-will put 20 contracts. Some of you will only put 2 JohnF ::ninja ::ninja handles 50 here handles lol JulieH Amos this was a treat thanks for the talk and thanks to Gary for bringing you to us. handles only can afford 2 handles hhaha Gary_Fullett ty julie swetz1 ::smile handles handles thanks amos and gary Amos but the idea is to FIND THOSE SITUATIONS where you have several pieces of information fall into place and point to a situation that has a HIGH PROBABILITY of being a CORRECT TRADE Amos Don'e ever worry about losing money Amos Worry ONLY ABOUT TRADING CORRECTLY handles huh? handles ok JohnF money management should handle losses.. Amos You have here enough information, or basis to look for CORRECT TRADES Amos Going back to the Beans chart Amos Anyone who tells you they could have ridden them from 6 to 10 and back to 5--is not telling you the truth Amos BUT YOU COULD HAVE TAKE 20% of those moves with high degree of certainty Amos THIS IS OK Amos You trade ACCORDING TO YOUR ABILITIES AND POCKET Amos AGAIN GOING Back to CARD COUNTERS. THEY ONLY TAKE THOSE HANDS THAT HAVE A CHANCE OF WINNING Amos If you look at MANY HANDS--you can make money Amos If you look all day at the same market--HOW MANY HIGH DEGREE OF KNOWLEDG SITUATION can you have in a week? Amos You MUST EXPAND you SPECTRUm and LOOK FOR SITUATIONS THAT HAVE HIGH DEGREE OF SUCCESS. swetz1 slim pickins Amos EVEN IF THEY ARE IN THE YEN kent lol Amos Slim was a Good player Amos OK agian it is late for you Peter Amos we truly appreciate you sharing your "scars", it is much appreciated. As usual, the log should be reread multiple times, for maximum value Amos Have a good night and see you next week handles bye amos Kelley thank you Mr. Cohen, appreciate your time handles thanls kent ty Amos handles a million swetz1 have a good morning Amos handles or 1% swetz1 thx SO MUCH ! ! ! ! Amos bye Steve thank you Amos.... and Gary Dave_M thank you amos pat good noght amos and thank you Gary_Fullett ty amos Amos left. rhonda Thanks Amos soilguy thank you Amos and Gary Gary_Fullett well Peter thank you Amos, have a great day Gary_Fullett how was tonight? handles amazing kent great! Larry thx amos, valuable info Gary_Fullett any quick q>? Peter excellent Steve awesome don't describe it gary lol handles like the 1/2 rule pat pretty hard for me to allocate 1% of my acct to work with:) JulieH Gary this was great. Can you get George Soros? swetz1 awesome baby ! ! ! ! 1 handles julieeeee handles lol Gary_Fullett lol kent not much I can trade $100, lol Gary_Fullett amos was taught by david Gary_Fullett and has bween trading for 30 yrs Gary_Fullett and what he si telling u Gary_Fullett is what he observed swetz1 lol Julie Gary_Fullett u dont ahve to agree Doc_K lady K is going to shoot me when she reads this handles right Gary_Fullett but he spreaks from his heart swetz1 that is for the summer Gary_Fullett why doc? swetz1 lol Gary_Fullett so i wnat to open yoru mind JohnF quality stuff thanks gary and amos is greatly appreciated JulieH Will this be available to save? Gary_Fullett for newsletter people I want to ahve a special chat kent yes swetz1 yes Julie Gary_Fullett like on p and f Doc_K wanted to take profits several days ago on ng not hold all contracts Gary_Fullett it is loged swetz1 Gary archives these night classes JohnF its on archives Peter it will be there in the morning Julie Gary_Fullett and will be avavalble tommorw night Gary_Fullett not bad for free ;) JulieH Oh that's right. swetz1 ::smile Doc Gary_Fullett well gave u the chance today doc Gary_Fullett i mentione dcrude swetz1 1/2,1/2 works great, Bill McLaren pounded it into my head JohnF ::ninja ::ninja ::ninja Doc_K would have worked 3 times JulieH Gotta get some sleep bye all. Steve night julie kent c ya Julie JulieH See you in the morning JohnF bye julie good night. swetz1 he needed a sledghammer though swetz1 ::smile JohnF lol sw rhonda Night Julie kent lol swetz JulieH JOe off trading yen Dave_M same here...cy tomorrow i hope in chat...thx folks Doc_K she will probably use skillet swetz1 lol Doc Peter thank you Gary,it was great, good night everyone swetz1 gn Julie Gary_Fullett okay jc according to amos everyone here must be overtrading unless they have at least 100,000 account swetz1 gn Peter Gary_Fullett will review more tommorw Gary_Fullett and tommorw Gary_Fullett night Dave_M left. kent lol JC Kelley gn Peter Peter gn Swetz JulieH left. swetz1 gn Gary handles gn pat night Gary--night all Gary_Fullett so i wioll see u all tommorw Peter gn Kelley Steve gn gary jc nice story kent u sent me swetz1 thx again for bringing Amost to us swetz1 Amos Gary_Fullett tommormow morning kent glad you liked it :) Gary_Fullett it will be on the site Kelley good night Folks, ty swetz1 gn folks ::smile Gary_Fullett i just want to be helpful Doc_K thanks allwas very enlightening Gary_Fullett so we all trad ebetter jc gnight all Gary_Fullett okay good night Gary_Fullett and it will get beter kent gn :) jc left. Gary_Fullett too on wed JohnF thanks gary gn swetz1 left. Larry thanks gary, amos is a great asset, gn all Gary_Fullett as we progress Gary_Fullett nigh t all ty Larry left. Kelley left. handles left. Doc_K left. Steve left. soilguy left. kent left. JimC left. Amos joined. Peter hi Amos Peter thank you again Gary_Fullett night all ty Amos ignore me Peter lol ok Gary_Fullett amos u abck? Gary_Fullett well boker tov Amos no Gary_Fullett left.