Amos joined. Amos Hi handles good evening amos Amos Some thoughts before we start: handles still a bit early.... handles i am listening..... Amos 1. Always trade afraid. Think what can go wrong. Not what will make you money Amos 2. Large analysis is to PREVENT MAJOR MISTAKES! bw joined. handles good points...... Amos 3. If you make a big mistake-It is HARD TO RECOVER and THEN do the right thing Amos 4. It is Human weakness. Amos 5. Each trade means NOTHING!. Only cumulative work!. To make money 8 months and then lose most of it in 2 months is STUPID Amos 6. What is a Stop loss? --THE BASIC FOUNDATION OF YOUR DECISION MAKING PROCESS IS GONE! swetz joined. handles hi swetzzzz Dave_M Steve warren joined. Amos 7. Size MATTERS. A 2 lot trader is TOTALLY DIFFERENT than a 10 lot trader .. and that does not compare with 50 lot trader! carnac joined. Amos You can be a very good 2 lot trader and an atrocious 10 lot trader. You must recognize the size of your stomach JP carnac ~ don't you already know what is going to be covered? carnac yes, lol. this is a review for me. JP LOL pat Amos--#6 --I am missing point Amos 8. Prechter predicted the market will go from 1066 to 3600. Then he predicted we must go back to 40. One prediction made huge money. The next one cost much more. Larry joined. Amos 9. Home work is: OBSEERVE DATA; Search for Synnergy; Prepare a plan; Keep searching for best trade (set up); Do not try to force opinion--only keep looking for more observations kent joined. Amos 10. This is a GUESSING GAME. Threrefore we must try to make our guesses as INTELLIGENT AS POSSIBLE Joe_K joined. Amos pat point 6 is definition of a stop loss Gary_Fullett joined. pat ok--ty Amos Amos I just put these points to clear my soul because I want to talk markets than philosophy-- so now you can read them and I am cleansed. handles thanks amos pat :) AllenH G Eve All... ::biggrin swetz ::smile Amos Amos I want to start with the fourth chart on the first letter--DOW JONES of 1907 Kelley joined. handles ok ready Kelley good evening Amos This is the yearly chart of the period 1900-1940 Joe_K Guys just joining Amos chart series 1 Dow chart 4 1907 Kelley ty warren charts emailed? Gary_Fullett they are on the site Joe_K (on sight under archives ) Larry on web site Amos I am not looking at the charts on the site-but at my computer--the way I sent them (it is easier for me-on another compouter. warren ty warren left. soilguy joined. jc joined. Amos You can see that for 20 years the dow is travelling between 50 and 100. swetz I am with you Amos ::smile kent hey soilguy, JC, DOW annual chart kent amos1.pdf Amos We know that in the decline of 1907 from 100 to 50 Jesse made Millions. Then he says he bought socks and did not sell them for months. soilguy hi all sorry to be late just got home kent they are in the archives under amos1.pdf Amos How could he go broke by 1912? when the market only travelled in very narrow range? warren joined. carnac amos said to start w. 4 swetz he plunged Amos kent 4th chart on amos1.pdf Amos Chart 4 DJU annual 1900-1940 Kelley 1900-1940 swetz overtraded jc Hi Kent and all Joe_K (bad money management) ron1 joined. Amos plunged, over traded, bad money mgmt Amos anything elst? Amos else? Joe_K Left someone else to tend to things ? Amos He was a lone wolf Joe_K ok Peter incorrectly anticipated market movements Amos Peter, the market DID NOT MOVE! handles no volume..... handles illiquid.....mkts handles only guy playing the trading game? bw maybe he bought too many eroding options Amos Well, my point is simple: It does not matter that you HIT a big pot in one market phase and then GIVE IT BACK later. Whit joined. Joe_K Dont think they had em then Amos Making money is NEVER the problem in this business. Peter I see some 50 % swings handles not losing is Joe_K Its "keeping" it Amos It is LOSING it later that counts kent hey Whit, chart 4 of amos1.pdf, dow annual Amos He never tells us how much money he made in the rise to 1929--which makes me thing that he DID NOT stay in that market! Amos What I would like to do today, the Beginning of the year (and you know it started with a BANG)- is to make some general obaservations Lady_K left. Whit Thanks, Kent Amos that will PREVENT BIG LOSSES during the year. Amos FIRST, I would like to give you guys a compliment BBob joined. Amos It feels like the energy in the group is OK . From the small feedback I got on Joe's site--It seems that some of you are Taking things seriously and want to contribute--that is GREAT Amos Now scroll to the nest chart and let us look at the yearly dow (not including today) and make some observations Tom joined. Amos I will start by making some general observations and Then I would like you to ADD if you can Amos Ignore the volue and the stoch, just STARE at the last 50 years of the dow and see how much we can glean from it kent hey Tom, Bob, 5th chart on amos1.pdf, located in the archives on gary's site BBob thanks jc left. Amos 1. we see a VERY LARGE RISE. about 20 years from 1980 to 2000 Tom left. kent yw jc joined. Amos actually until 1982-1984 we are still in a 16 year range so let us say we started in 1982 or 1984 Amos the CRASH OF 1987 as you can see from this chart is NOTHING BUT HIGHT HIGH, HIGER LOW and HIGHER CLOSE (even if only 2 dollars) swetz retesting 2000 high last year Amos When you look at this chart today--can you believe that people comitted suicide and murdered their broker for that year? Tom joined. kent lol, no Joe_K lol Amos Swets you are RUSHING TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE CHART! go slow! Peter amazing to keep this in perspective swetz got a friend who lost 2 friends by suicide in that year swetz sorry swetz Amos Tom left. Amos Next--in EVERY ONE OF THESE YEARS IN THAT FANTASTIC RISE-- the market NEVERE MADE A LOWER LOW ON THE YEARLY CHART! BBob over stocks swetz? Amos When peopel tell you that it is DIFFICULT TO KEEP in a TREND--THEY ARE IGNORANT swetz yes Amos It is VERY EASY, if you FOLLOW SIMPLE DEFINTION OF A TREND Amos I like to define a trend as SERIES OF RALLIES AND REACTIONS! Amos Series--implies ORDER! Amos Next observation is that until the END OF 1994, start of 1995- the rise is about 30 degrees and then it becomes HYPERBOLIC Amos What happened in 1994? swetz very tight range Amos Today is Q&A so please answer swetz and then trend went vertical Amos Why did the market become so strong? Larry republicans won the house:) BBob clinton handles rates went up BBob lol handles RATES handles all about RATES JP more buyers than sellers Dave_M internet handles surprisingly fed raised Dave_M technology...information tech Doc_K 92 93 94 sot Dave_M www handles ratessssssssssss Peter more money in the system handles mkt was on wrong side Larry internet handles people got nailed Amos IN teresting. Only DaveM ans Larry understand Dave_M Even a blind squirel can find a nut :) Amos In 1994 the Nasdaq boom started and created HUGE amounts of MONEY (even tho it was on paper ) and that was the DEMAND that pushed all markets Tom joined. Amos 1994 to 2000 is simply the Nasdaq bubble. Amos and you can see that the range of each bar is much larger Amos but the chart DOES NOT LIE! Amos Every year since 1994 is a big range and CLOSE NEXT TO THE HIGH! swetz so "clever money" says we going higher but of high close right? Amos 1999 is also close at the high-- makes a higher high (nominal) and then 2000 the year of Y2K--is a narrow range that close in tyhe middle and a lower close (not by much) swetz but = because ::smile Amos 2001 is the first year in 20 years that makes a LOWER LOW. Amos You do not need more than that! Amos IF YOU JUST KEPT YOUR "LONGS" until the chart made a LOWER LOW-- You would NOT be sitting in this room today! Joe_K lower lo aint the word for it Joe_K plumit Amos I am trying to avoid emotinal descriptions. I told you that the lingo- the narrative has a lot to do with ones long term Profitability curve. Amos I avoid using bombastic terms. kent 2003 inside bar, higher close Joe_K So youd be out 4th 5th month 2000 Joe_K with most of it Amos the market then declines for two years and closes 2003 toward the bottlm but not very weak! that means that supply is not so determined Amos sorry that was 2002 Amos It spends 2003 in a huge range INSIDE YEAR but CLOSES AT THE HIGH! Amos THAT CLOSE TOLD YOU That the MARKET IS NOT SO WEAK and that we are most likely in a RANGE! Amos 2004 adn 2005 are Narrow range years but each one CLOSES AT THE HIGH of that bar! Amos That tells you that the market is NOT WEAK! Amos Did I know that it will make NEW HIGH? NO WAY Amos I only know that the market is NOT SO WEAK and I should be CAREFUL with shoret side trades! Amos Then come 2006 which goes to new highs and closes at the HIGH Amos What do I know from that chart? Joe_K still stength swetz market is not weak Amos THat the odds are HIGH that we will be making a new high, even if NOMINAL and that the market is UNLIKELY TO "CRASH" kent unless UT warren close all time high Kelley the trend is intact Amos So BARRING A V TOP which I do not know how to handle!!!-- I know that 2007 is going to have still demand in it BBob is 2002 presupply? JP I know or I suspect? handles how can u say it will not crash.....from this chart??? Whit also suggests intermediate trades to the long side will have higher odds of success and better profit than the short side. Amos The big quesstion is how high it will go. Amos NO WAY I CAN KNOW THAT BBob 14,000 Amos Letys go to the semi--next chart Joe_K If I can blow this chart up, I see a epa Joe_K :) Amos You can see that all my charts always have 5 21 55 MA on them and in a strong trend they come in handy Amos You can see that the decline in the semi annual respected the 21 MA JP y Amos It is Always good thing to watch this to see if the market wants to respect that MA Amos The semi looks more like a range that spent 5 bars going down and 8 bars going up Amos The question on this chart is whether the rise above 2000 high is an Upthrust or a beginning of a new wave up Amos NO WAY I CAN KNOW THAT from this chart Amos If you go next to the Quarterly chart-- you see that the break above previous high occured in the LAST QUARTER. handles yes Amos One bar above or below signivcant lever of resistance/support means NOTHING Amos The rally in the quarterly chart from 2002 low is comprised ofr Joe_K Amos it looks like even on Anual this baby has only retraced close to 38% Amos 5 bars rise Amos 7 bars sideways Amos and 4 or 5 bars rise where the last one is strongest. Amos Comparing swings lengths and shape is very critical BBob june 13 low Amos They prevent you from making major mistakes Amos I marked the number 116531 on the chart because to me it is the MOST CRUCIAL Gary_W joined. Amos Once we break it-- we are MOST LIKELY Back in the range and end of 2006 was an Upthrust and I have a topoghraphic map to go by Peter agreed Amos Let us continue to gather information Amos Go to the next series starts with the YEARLY s and p Amos Again the years leading to 2000 are all HIGHER LOW! which means tha UPTREND IS INTACT! Amos 2000 is "BC" Amos the structure of the coming years is SIMILAR to the dow BUT!!!! Amos Here we are STILL BELOW 2000 high and close to what is probably a TOP OF A RANGE! Amos The S&P DOES NOT CORROBRATED THE DOW! Amos This is FIRST NON SYNNERGISTIC FIND! Amos This calls for a CAUTION SIGN Peter different stocks in each index since the 2000 dow high Amos The close of 2006 is at the high which means that under NORMAL Circumstances I can Expect a higher high but here I have a formidable RESISTANCE ABOVE ME to guide me Amos Peter, I am doing market analysis of charts and each group should either ADD, SUBRACT of do nothing for the general analysis Amos Notice that the yearly chart of the S&P during the last 4 years CLOSES EACH YEAR AT THE HiGH!--Significant Amos Next we go to the semi annual Amos The picture there is almost the same Amos Only that here we have 8 bars. Joe_K whats that mean " does not corrobrate the Dow ?" Amos I am very sensitive to counting as I told you JP divergence between the 2 indexes? swetz SnP not a new high while DOW is Peter dow made a new high, SnP did not Amos Joe Dow is higher high and s and p is still in range Joe_K y Dave_M not in harmony with dow Amos 3,5,13,21,34,55 are important counts for me Amos 8 too Amos these are fibo numbers and many times the market respects them Amos If a trend is a SERIES of rallies and reactions--the NUMBER OF BARS in each phase can be very telling Amos This I learned from linda who defined trading as Constant comparison of previous highs and lows. Amos It was very difficult to accept it for a while-- but it is SO IMPORTANT and SO TRUE--AMAZING Peter this is an important insight, worth study Amos I know of quite a few "COUNTING" approches and models Amos I happen to use fibonacci approach which is getting LESS AND LESS respected by the market (again the Self fulfilling prophecy curse)!!! Amos I have fibo counting in my calender for each of the commodities I am trading BUT!!!! Joe_K use em myself Amos I NEVER TRADE THEM UNLESS I SEE THE MARKET RESPECTS THEM!!!!! handles i dont understand the counting..... Joe_K just another guide tool Amos Move on the the quareterly s and p Amos Here we have a lower low 3 quarters ago (which fooled me!) and for me the LOST of last quarter is CRUCIAL it is 1336 on the near future Amos I will buy near that level and if it breaks-- I will only trade from the short side Amos B TW, this large analysis does not talk about tomorrow's trade, I hope you understand that Peter y kent y Joe_K 1+1=2 2+3=5 3+5=8 8+5=13 sequence Handles Gary_W left. Amos I want to use the first day of the year to get some LARGE CONCEPT of where we are and how not to make BIG MISTAKES Amos If you are not familiar with fibonacci series--use wikipedia for that Amos This is the answer to EVERYTHING todfay handles k thanks Amos today Amos The next chart is also interesting it is the chart of the OPTIONS INDEX Amos sxc Amos Here we get a strange picture where the rally in the options barely made it to the .62% retracement point Amos This is many times a point of resistance (IF THE MARKET WANTS TO USE IT of course) Amos But it is WEAKER THAN the UNDERLYING S&P Peter y, what does this tell you? Amos This is a BIG QUESTION MARK ABOUT THE ANTICIPATORY FORCE of the market Amos Peter, I am in the INFORMATION GATHERING PROCESS. Amos You guys are IMPATIENT ! kent lol Amos So now I have the Dow at all time high Amos S and P in a range a Amos and SXC barely making it to the .618% retracement Amos Surely NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A BULLISH ARGUMENT Amos Go to the nasdaq now kent the weakest Amos This is a bad chart because we only have 10 years and this is NOT ENOUGHT info Amos So we have to be CAREFUL with ANY conclusion we draw here! Amos But we clearly have a BUYING CLIMAX FORM on the yearly chart Amos No DISTRIBUTION process but insteadn immediately LOWER LOW and practically 90% drop from the high Amos This is the definition of a BUBBLE Amos But we go on and analyze it gingerly Amos Since the low which close near the low (implying under NORMAL circumstance lower low in the next bar!) we have 2003 an inside year and 2004-2006 narrow range years with , again, closes near the HIGH! Amos Next is nasdaq semi annual Amos We see a very sharp decline of 5 bars where the last bar was definitely SHORTENING OF THE DOWNWARD THRUST--and then a V bottom followed by 8 bars with rather DISORDERLY SHAPE handles 5 down 8 up handles cool Amos The last quarter was in a form of OUTSIDE KEY REVERSAL closing at the high handles small grind up...... Amos which by itself PRESENTS STRENGTH Amos but when you look at the larger picture you realize that we did NOT EVEN RECOVER 25% of the decline-- YOU HAVE TO BE VERY LEERY OF THE NASDAQ Amos I marked the high and low of th semi= 1458-1847 and I would not be surprised to see tha meket battling next few weeks or months WITHIN this RANGE! Amos AS break of 1458-- will make me trade it ONLY FROM THE SHORT SIDE Amos Next the quarterly-- I drew a line which I think is important. Amos During the decline of the Nasdq the first bar that showed minimum demand was the fifth--it has a form of a KR Amos but the next bar is SHARP DECLIN from the close of the secone quarter of 2001-- i think this is 9/11 decline. But I consider the SUPPLY of that bar as IMPORTANT. It is around 1900 and them market is still coping with it bw left. Amos Much in the same vane of LPSY and LPS--this is important to relate to these levels Amos the low of last quqrter is 1638 and it is market on the chart--SIGNIFICANT FOR ME Amos Next chart is the CRC Amos This chart is very painful for me because what I am showing you now--I DID NOT USE in this chart and it cost me a lot of money! Amos We see 5 years of VERY STRONG UP MOVE Amos Last year closed closer to the high which means that this is NOT a weak chart Amos the low of the year is 345.49 and is very crucial because once we break it-- we can go into 3-5 years of DECLINS and that is GOOD TO KEEP in the back of your mind! Amos Next is semi annual Amos we have 10 bars! each making HIGHER LOW! but the last bar shows some Shortening of the thrust Amos cxertainly close to close--there is MUCH LESS progress than previous bars Amos I marked the low of the semi whicfh is 359.07 Amos so we have 345.49 for the yearly and 359.07 afor the semi bw joined. Amos Next is the quarterly which shows kind of a RANGE and the low of the quarter is 361.19 Amos I get now two numbers 359 and 361 from TWO LARGE TIME FRAMES--this is getting to be important. My DATA COLLECTION brings me cluster of points which are close to each other--SIGNIFICANT Amos Note that this quarter which started today (with a bang) is the 21st from the low Amos 21 is important number. swetz ah fib number ::smile handles got it Amos IF THE MARKET WANTS TO RESPECT IS--There is a chance that we will correct to the NEXT FIB nuber which is 34--that means that we CAN get 13 quarters correction! JP ! kent ouch, lol Amos I am NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN--BUT IT IS A GUIDING LIGHT and I am goint to follow it closely Amos why ouch kent? Joe_K lol JP his wife hit him as she walked by kent ouch for lots of commodity bulls kent lol JP Peter not ouch for the bears ;) Amos Why do you care if you make money this side of the market or another? kent nope :) Joe_K many dont use fibs and Mas Amos jc sell that corn again kent,lol kent I prefer the short side, lol Amos Next is the MONTHLY CRB kent JC :) Joe_K I think their tools like everything else guides Amos I admit that it is not clear to me Amos You can see PSY and bc if you want--but I do not know Peter yes either PSY/BC or a retest of support Amos I see a GAP 3 months ago and will not be surprised to see it clsed--but that should not matter If I am right on the 21 quarters Amos The most important thing to watch on the CRB are those 3 levels of support I mentioned. Peter y Amos Joe, Everyone and his nephew is using fibs and mas Amos the trick is to use them CORRECTLY Joe_K agreed Amos Next is DXC handles we doing shack tonight amos? Joe_K I'll use kitchen sink if it helps me Amos The dollar index is a good indicator for the general trend Joe_K :) handles sugah shack? Joe_K Sugar Joe_K maybe next Handles Amos The yearly is interesting Joe_K :( Amos The dollar rose 6 years and gave it all back in 3. This is important. Does it mean weakness? Joe_K can swetz I think so Amos One of the most important things about a TREND is that IT IS ALWAYS SKEWED TO THE RIGHT! Amos In an uptrend market spends MORE TIME IN RALLIES and only SHORT reactions Joe_K Im suprized we never retraced to 100 yet Amos Ina BEAR MARKET it spends much more time DECLINING and short (and someimes brutal) rallies. BBob probably becuase of fundamentals joe.. ooooh Amos This market delined strongly in 3 years Joe_K Well he's dicusiing weakness verse strength sometimes inability or delayed retrace can denote nt weakness Amos 2005 we had a year of demand and 2006 retraced most of it. Steve_W joined. Amos Lets go to the semi Joe_K ok Joe_K nice charts by the way Amos JP y Amos The semi annual closed 2004 ON THE LOW and it is ONLY NATURAL that we SHOULD RETEST IT even if it is NOT bearish any more. Amos The fact that we made a higher high on the semi--tells me that we are NOT IN A BEAR MARKET but rather in a RANGE! Peter y retest of ice during accum JP cool Joe_K building Cause in that area to stage a 100 retest or obsolete thinking ? Amos This kind of observation can be very painful if the market chosses to spend many bars in the range--but it PREVENTS ME From making BIG MISTAKES Amos Everyone and his brother is talking how the DOLLAR is going to the dumpers, how Iran is switching to Euro,,, you name it Joe_K y Kelley y Amos All I know that if the market starts a bull phase-- I will understands it better and know where it comes from Peter yes like 2004 year end :) Amos At this point the point I market 8733 is the MOST CRUCIAL Joe_K I can see some metal correcting still so wont be suprized Amos because if the market is going down-- IT SHOULD MAKE LOWER HIGHS. If it makes higher high on the Semi--THE IT IS NOT BEARISH Amos you can say--what does 8733 help me when I am near 84? Amos Good question. IT DOES NOT Joe_K excellent point Amos This is A LARGE ROAD MAP. It does not tell you where the next hill is--It just tells you if you are in North dakota or South Dakota! Amos For me it is GOOD TO KNOW Joe_K lol Amos Next is the quartely chart swetz ::smile Joe_K You guys FEELEN IT ? Joe_K WAKE UP Amos I put 8733 again, but now if I count bars I see that we just finished 21 from the top Amos PERHAPS THIS IS IMPORTANT? kent lol Amos I am just gathering information. handles perhaps..... JP interesting handles i like this Joe_K Im getting pumped Amos What I am trying to point out to you guys is that TRADING IS A BUSINESS Steve_W left. Amos Before you buy a piece of propery or a car you should do some research ron JOE, NO WAY, THIS IS EXCITING STUFF!! Amos Market research etc. Joe_K :) Amos To trade is to decide that you are opening a business.. The more info you gather that points to the chance of you making money in that business-- the more you succeed Joe_K I cant pull up Q or Anual Amos on E sig have to find out later how Amos most people trade on VERY LITTLE INFORMATION Steve_W joined. Amos That is what I am trying to harp for you Joe_K so true Amos If you find a situation that has synnergy and many time frames point to the same direction handles i am getting it...drilled in my head Amos You have several support levels that come from different places Amos You have counts that point to some order Amos You have some trendline that coallece with horizotnal lines Amos You may even cycles and then you have some kind of CHART MODEL--whether is Wyckoff or the thrust or whatever--then ou do it Amos YOU WILL BECOME BUSINESS MEN adn trading will become a SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS Joe_K :) handles from 10 year chart to a daily....its a tough transition.... Gary_Fullett folks it doesnt get much better than this Amos Next is the euro quarterly Dave_M y Joe_K Crowd chanting " we want sugar..we want sugar...we want sugar.." Gary_Fullett one muct appreciate the work that is put in here with charts handles can we look at sugar as an example of what we are trading here daily.....before the night ends? Joe_K lol bw lol handles yes we do gary..... Amos I did not want to repeat the larger time frames because the euro is pretty much is the opposite of the dollar Amos Why do you want sugar? Amos You see-- this is a MAJOR FLAW! Joe_K We are in a battle Joe_K thought you may spot something we dont kent lol Amos You are TRYING TO FIND A TRADE IN A PARTICULAR MARKET! Joe_K No Joe_K We are in the Mother Joe_K lol Steve_W left. Amos YOU WILL, inevitabley FORCE YOUR VIEW ON IT because you WANT TO FIND A TRADE Amos Much better to look at market with UNBIASED EYE and LOOK FOR SITUATIONS YOU UNDERSTAND Joe_K Well its a sitsuation I thought I understood Amos That is why it is so important to look at Stocks as some of you are doing on Joe's site Peter good point, review all markets before deciding on a trade Amos WHY? handles lol joe.... swetz lots of candidates swetz Amos Amos Because the chance to find a GOOD SETUP increases as you INCREAS YOUR VIEW Joe_K Thought we had nt ending action SC retest cause and would retrace towards 1300-1500 Amos It is againg the story of digging fold vein by vein or en masse Joe_K now acting muddled sour Amos The qurterly euro is a range of 8 quarters. Tom left. Amos We are CLOSER TO THE HIGH of the RANGE so I will be looking to SELL RESISTANCE rather than buy support. Steve_W joined. Joe_K you talking Euro ? Amos Again as long as we make higher lows-- it is still showing DEMAND swetz yes Joe Joe_K k Amos Next is BP-- I do not know if the 22 year channel I drew has any merrit--we broke it BBob amos 3 chart Amos but if we fall back into it--then perhaps there is important info ther Amos At any rate we are against 20 year resistance of 2 dollar per pound and this is RESISTANCE! Amos Period Amos One thing I do NOT DO AT RESISTANCE--BUY JP LOL Amos I may sell and I may not--depending on Volume, Structure, Distribution process, etc! Amos BUT I DO NOT BUY@ Amos Remember that it is very good to know what NOT TO DO! JP y swetz yep Amos Let's go down to soybeans Amos I put the semi annual Amos YOU TELL ME what do you see swetz TR Doc_K tr Doc_K hi end close Peter BC, retest with sow swetz last 3 bars have all been inside the 4th bar Amos Here is what I see: swetz had very large bar with close at low before TR developed Amos A huge delind in 2004 that closed at the LOW! this says BIG WEAKNESS Amos Market rallies ONE BAR and closes in the MIDDLE Amos This first rally says to me that until we break it's high-- the market is NOT BULLISH!! Amos and indeed we are spending now almost a year inside that bar Joe_K by same token until you brake 400 not bearish Amos I do not know what you mean by Buying climax, peter, where? Amos 400? joe? Joe_K Beans kent demand would need to prove itself sense it came from weakness JP EOM down is disproportionately much larger than every other bar on the page ~ plus low close Amos it is trading between 5 and 8 for 2 years Joe_K In Beans ? Peter the high bar, mid close bar looks like a BC to me, or a very large UT Amos we are trading at 6.80 now Joe_K Market traded 400-570 for years Joe_K we are above that Joe_K all I know JP higher high made tells you TR even though large bar down amos? Amos at any rate.. without any bias I see that we are in a large range after a very weak bar and I must assume we will continue to trade in that range for many bars. Amos If I connect this with a possible correction in the Crb-- it MAY affect beans and prevent them from rallying Amos To know that we are in a trading range--is good Amos You look to sell the top of the range and buy the bottom of the range Peter agree, TR resumed now building cause to repare after that supply Peter yes Amos If you PLAY IN THE MIDDLE YOU MUST BE A SCALPER! Joe_K still plenty money to made in tr Joe_K :) Amos Please don't get me wrong-- I am not saying we should always look for trends-- I JUST WANT TO KNOW IN WHAT MARKET CONDITIONS I AM Peter there are TRs in every timeframe, timeframe traded is part of ones niche Joe_K yep Joe_K Amos what happened to the Turtles ? Amos Notice by the way that open interest is UNUSALLY high-- I f this is correct-- It has some meaning Joe_K Trend famers Amos I DO NOT KNOW WHAT IT MEANS Amos Joe. linda answered it 3 sessions ago--they got CRASHED Joe_K lol Joe_K Trend Pups too Peter I have noticed increasing OI in many commodities Amos she lausghed at me saying I am repeating their breakout system handles open int high means what to you here......funds are in....more $ around?? Joe_K lol Amos Time has flown Joe_K Amos we have time for Yen Sugar ? Gary_Fullett thank u so much amos was enlightening Amos I am not trying to nail TRADES rhonda Amos was fantastic, Many Thanks Peter very interesting Amos thank you Dave_M This is good...no great, thanks AMos handles thanks amos....really!!!! ron Amos. thank you so very much swetz GREAT, GREAT, GREAT stuff Amos Amos I am trying to show you that with INTELLIGENT WEEDING OUT and sifting and Adhering to BASIC RULES--you can turn this into a prosperous business pat Great info Amos Joe_K oh well no Sugar Yen Amos I will see you next wednesday kent thanks for your efforts Amos, much appreciated jc ::laugh -sugar ::biggrin ,,,thanks amos much enlightment! JP thank Amos Whit I learned an alot -- on several levels. Thank you. Peter yes this analysis is just the begining of the process Gary_Fullett amostoda raba Joe_K Gret charts soilguy thanks amos rhonda Good Night Amos swetz cy Amos, have a good week pat Joe, you will have to analyze sug and yen Amos Today started the year with a bang which means that there is a LOT OF MONEY AROUND TO BE THROWN JP sleep tight warren thanks Amos -- good stuff Joe_K Already have Pat Gary_Fullett hold on a min folks Joe_K Like other input Amos good night all Gary_Fullett night amos Doc_K whatever gary said swetz gn Amos jc cya Amos left. Peter good day Amos, bfn Gary_Fullett okay so any questions? Gary_Fullett did tonight help? kent great stuff Whit yes handles sell sell sell Dave_M y kent yes handles everything Joe_K LOL swetz LOVED IT Gary kent lol handles me too gary JP are we stepping towards an intermarket analysis of markets? BBob I like that about higher/lower closes Joe_K Well I have to say liked the charts but rather talk future Joe_K not past handles very good info......but this much info makes it hard to find a trade.... Peter yes it helped alot to understand how Amos reviews bar by bar, looking at different things that we've discussed in the past Joe_K lol pat I'm back to square one in rade selection pat trade Joe_K LOL Gary_Fullett okay swetz patience handles ::smile Gary_Fullett so do u see a similarity with amos and david? BBob buy china swetz oh yes pat :) bbob swetz both look at range of bars, position of close kent always start from the higher time frames to the lower ones :) Joe_K Just looking at longer term stuff JP they both raise their voice when you do not get it Gary_Fullett they ahve evolved difernly Dave_M not sure,,,newbie dave don't know david Gary_Fullett but the foundation si the same Dave_M yet Gary_Fullett david will speak here Peter yes definitely see similaritys with David, as well as differences Gary_Fullett he taught amos Gary_Fullett right peter Gary_Fullett thats niche Gary_Fullett and thats expericnes that are dioffernt JP interesting Joe_K 2 different animals too me but both oriented to looking way out swetz David is amazing Dave Peter yes understand more about niche every week now :) pat need access to a lot more resources to do analysis like Amos BBob amos had an argument with gary on crude back in 2000.. higher highs.. same theme Gary_Fullett who won bob? kent lol Gary_Fullett amos is a genuis swetz I think amos gave a site that has long-term charts of futures Gary_Fullett his apprach can be differnt and controversal BBob well, at that point gary did. swetz so can see same charts, Amos is looking at Gary_Fullett but he is a genius Doc_K this is what joe and gary swetz ect have ben teaching but enlarging time frames much to my enlightenment pat thanks swetz swetz prophet.net has long-term charts of stock indexes Gary_Fullett well large tiem frame sare imp Gary_Fullett but u can look at things smaller raneg too Peter sometimes in debates there are no clear winners, each party teaches something to the others and they both win :) Gary_Fullett i will discuss it more in the day clas if u wish Doc_K just adds more points to corrolate kent yes please Gary_Fullett any questions? kent no, great stuff gary kent thanks again Dave_M I like how he "triangulates" around the long term JP I have a question Gary Dave_M markets to hone his direction and I aassume Dave_M buying strategy Gary_Fullett okay jp JP higher highs followed by a sell of Dave_M convergence/divergence JP not a bear market but amos says TR BBob I just wished he would of predicted something! lol Dave_M dollar euro example JP why TR? building cause to test last high? jc got to run,night all jc left. swetz if you mean beans Joel Gary_Fullett right jp Peter Amos: 10. This is a GUESSING GAME. Therefore we must try to make our guesses as INTELLIGENT AS POSSIBLE swetz I think Amos said TR because had 3 bars inside the 4th bar back swetz that is a TR BBob I like that pete soilguy wdmatrix.com has lots of old chart data and continuous charts swetz thx soilguy soilguy grains Gary_Fullett okay will see u tomorrow,,, Dave_M I think worden will give you long time frames Gary_Fullett thank u... JP well DX he also said TR swetz gn Gary Dave_M correct I know it will JP swetz Peter yes Bob, me too, I liked all 10 points he made :) Gary_Fullett left.