User [gary fullett /24.240.192.12] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:01:46 EDT 2001
User [Chuck /64.199.213.2] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:01:47 EDT 2001
<Jairo> Hi everyone
<Chuck> hi everyone
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
User [Zack /206.71.125.17] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:02:33 EDT 2001
<Zack> Hi all
<Jairo> hi Zack
<gary fullett> we will start in several minutes
<Chuck> hi zack
<Chuck> k
User [Andrew /203.58.162.153] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:05:06 EDT 2001
<Zack> So are you enjoying the clases Chuck?
<Zack> G'Day Andrew
<Chuck> yes i am
<Andrew> G'day everyone
User [Steve /63.113.80.163] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:05:45 EDT 2001
<Chuck> whats for lunch andrew?
<Steve> hi guys
<Zack> Hi Steve
<gary fullett> how is everyone tonight?
<Andrew> chicken & salad
<Chuck> good
User [tom /172.168.80.40] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:06:59 EDT 2001
<Andrew> Gary a ? about your charts
<Zack> What--no Australian lobster Andrew :)
<Andrew> you said you are using spot continuous ones
<Andrew> not today :(
<gary fullett> the charts that are sent are the ones that show that particular commodty for that particaul month
<Andrew> when I brought up the one on Lumber
<Andrew> the data didn't match up
<gary fullett> which month?
<Andrew> so I opened a Gann Mayy continuous and it matched the lumber one
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> my may match the Gann lumber one?
<Andrew> but mosy of your charts are the same as my spot continuous ones
<Chuck>
<Andrew> just trying to work out what the difference is.
<gary fullett> when I send the the charts
<Andrew> So I am using the proper charts.
<gary fullett> they are for that month that I send them
<gary fullett> but they are continous charts
<gary fullett> yes u r
<gary fullett> is there a topic that u would ike to discuss tonight?
User [Joe K /172.138.46.200] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:13:29 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> I will talk on so spres tonight
<gary fullett> spreads
<gary fullett> with a little wyckoff principles :)
<Chuck> hi Joe
<Steve> I'll be back shortly
<Joe K> Peanut butter ! cool
<gary fullett> but before I begin my stuff
<Joe K> Hey guys
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> comments?
<Jairo>
<Joe K> Whats a Hinge
<Joe K> mentioned other night
<gary fullett> complaints :)LOL
<Joe K> lol
<Andrew> hi Joe
<gary fullett> I tink a spring is a hinge joe
<Joe K> hi Andrew, hows weather down under ?
<Joe K> ok Gary
<Andrew> lovely, best time of the year
<gary fullett> yeah I see it on survivor andrew
<gary fullett> th outback
<Joe K> cool
<Joe K> yeah, I seen that
<gary fullett> okay lets talk on spreads
<Joe K> was ok
<gary fullett> why are spreads importantant?
<Chuck>
<gary fullett> in spreads what u must understand
<gary fullett> that there are correlations
<gary fullett> between those prices
<gary fullett> and if they get out of line believe me
User [Zack /208.26.139.126] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:19:02 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> the people who know put them in line
<gary fullett> sometimes we dont understand
<gary fullett> those prices relationships
<gary fullett> and I dont care to know them
<Joe K> Hey Zack a roni !
<gary fullett> but wathch market action
<gary fullett> did anyone see the grain action tody?
<Zack> NTR question
<gary fullett> today
<Chuck> y
<gary fullett> okay zack
<gary fullett> please ask
<tom> n
<Zack> Anybody else here using a Sat. connection--rather then a phone line?
<Zack> Seem I have to switch to my other computer to stay connected
User [Brian /207.69.0.77] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:21:18 EDT 2001
<Joe K> Hmmm, does it work ok, Zack ?
<Brian> Hi guys
<gary fullett> hi brian
<Joe K> hey Brian
<gary fullett> the other day Tuesday
<Zack> By phone line ,no problem--by Sat. Dish frequent disconect Joe
<gary fullett> if u watch the action in the grains
<Zack> For any other purpose--Sat works fine
<gary fullett> wheat rallied
<gary fullett> and corn brroke near the close
<gary fullett> but both rallied sharply about 30 minutes to the close and then sold back down
<gary fullett> thi quick action
<gary fullett> was desiggned by the cm
<gary fullett> this volitile action and spreads
<gary fullett> set up the rally today
<gary fullett> I have a question?
<gary fullett> why did wheat lag tody if it was the strongest grain lately?
<Chuck> other grains are bearish
<Chuck> export too low
<gary fullett> so why did wheat lag?
<gary fullett> forget the NEWS
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> wheat was higher by 5 cents yesterday
<Chuck> testing demand
<gary fullett> as the grains were higher
<gary fullett> people bought wheat
<Zack> Wheat was already near the top/middle of its range--other grains were at the low
<gary fullett> so today the market started to turn bullish
<gary fullett> so they bought beans sold wheat on a spread
<gary fullett> the biught meal sold bean oil
<gary fullett> to unwind bar spreads
<gary fullett> does anyone know last weeks close in may beans?
<Joe K> Spreading ? In Wheat maybe ?
<gary fullett> last friday?
<gary fullett> just a guess how much lower is beans from lasts weeks close today?
<gary fullett> 3 cents ? 5 cents?
<Andrew> 429.25
<Joe K> 429 1/4
<Zack> It's on my other computer Gary :):)
<gary fullett> any ideas?
<Joe K> i think
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> so we are 1 /2 a cent from last weeks close
<gary fullett> if we close 1 /2 higher tomorrow we will have a higher weekly close
<gary fullett> Please not tomoorow is the weekly close
<gary fullett> and Monday is the months close
<gary fullett> very very important days
<Joe K> progression
<Chuck>
<gary fullett> you MUST chart daily weekly monthly closes
<gary fullett> wheat is already higher for the week
<gary fullett> if we close above todays Highs
<gary fullett> we will have an outside weekly close in wheat
<Andrew> last months close was 428 1/2
<gary fullett> a lower Low and a higher High
<gary fullett> right andrew
<gary fullett> so wheat is leading this market UP
<gary fullett> so it stopped at resisatnce today
<gary fullett> as they bought short beans
<gary fullett> and sold the long wheat positions
<gary fullett> many times
<gary fullett> first notice day
<Jairo>
<Steve>
<tom>
<Chuck>
<Brian>
<Zack>
<Brian> hello out there
<gary fullett> markets in grains tend
<Brian> echo
<Brian> echo
<gary fullett> to bottom
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> so monday and tuesday very important days
<Chuck> lol
<Joe K> Gary use to wok on TV, cue card man
<Zack> Ahhh--the pause that refreshes
<Brian> :)
<gary fullett> along with
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> tomorrow
<gary fullett> why do grains tend to bottom during first notice day/?
<gary fullett> because
<gary fullett> people have to sell thier longs in the lead month
<gary fullett> and buy the next month out
<gary fullett> to avoid delievery
<gary fullett> do you understand this?
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> actually i got a call sorry
<gary fullett> so grains are at critical junctures
<Chuck> y
<gary fullett> here
<gary fullett> please look at all charts this weeknend
<gary fullett> what u should all do
<Zack> Still little or no weather premium evident--could get interesting very soon
<gary fullett> is look at the pricing of all commodities
<gary fullett> the funds are very very short grains
<gary fullett> so any strenghth
<gary fullett> they will rally due to stops
<gary fullett> but if u look at pricing
<gary fullett> if the prices are lower as the market goes out further
<gary fullett> this is because
<gary fullett> they expect more supply or product
<gary fullett> they markets Knows this..
<gary fullett> that is why they are priced the way they are
<Chuck>
<gary fullett> so nothing is over priced and underpriced
<gary fullett> it is priced because of what the perception of the market is
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> u will notice that heating oil is higher priced in winter
<gary fullett> than summer
<gary fullett> and unleaded gas prices are priced higher in summer than winter
<gary fullett> and u know the reasons for this
<gary fullett> so u need to watch each month
<gary fullett> for its particaulr strenghth or weakness
<Chuck> demand
<gary fullett> do u understand price correlation that way?
<Brian> y
<gary fullett> the CBOT raised the margin for wheat today?
<gary fullett> do u know why they did this?
<Zack> Yep--based on "perception" of seasonal demand increas
<Zack> Anticipated higher volatility
<tom> more volatility
<gary fullett> markets rally or break on News
<Andrew> Sorry can't stay long today, have to go out, will catch up in the archieves, thanks Gary, bye.
<gary fullett> not beiase of the numbers that are stted BUT what the expectation of what the markewt expects the number to be
<Zack> bye Andrew
<gary fullett> bye andrew have a great weekend
User [Andrew] left forum on Thu Apr 26 21:45:11 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> maybe someone knows something :)
<gary fullett> that is correct about volitity
<gary fullett> higher margin less spec interest
<gary fullett> the cm has lots of $$$
<gary fullett> so margin increase doesnt affect them
<gary fullett> between markets in the grains here
<gary fullett> you need to watch the correlation
<gary fullett> watch for strenghth
<gary fullett> vs wekness in them
<gary fullett> the CM buys the strong ones
<gary fullett> and sells the weak ones
<Brian> how much did it go up?
<gary fullett> wheat was up 1 cent today
<gary fullett> this is a mistake made by many traders
<gary fullett> dont expect to buy the weakest one and get rewarded all the time
<gary fullett> Buy strenghth and sell weakness
<Zack> I think Brian was referring to the margin Gary
<Brian> referring to margin, gary
<gary fullett> U can see this in the Nasdaq vs the s and p
<gary fullett> it went up by 120 dollars I beleive
<Brian> thanks
<gary fullett> questions so far?
User [RBnCA /216.119.49.19] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:49:36 EDT 2001
<Chuck>
<Zack> Not as bad as Platinum a few months ago--margin was over contract full value
<gary fullett> that is true zack great point
<gary fullett> u should watch spreads
<gary fullett> daily monthly weekly
<gary fullett> they chart the same
<gary fullett> and u should chart spreads like they are futures
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> any questions on spreads?
<Joe K>
<tom> intermarket spreads ordifferent months
<Brian>
<gary fullett> Both tom
<gary fullett> wyckoff principles:
<gary fullett> chart as many spreads as u can
<gary fullett> thye do this by letting the price range expnad
<gary fullett> they do this by price action and volume
<gary fullett> how does the CM talk to one another using market action?
<gary fullett> or they do this by keeping the range tight
<gary fullett> the first meaningful rally
<gary fullett> when a market is in a down trend
<gary fullett> Both are very significant
<gary fullett> to most people this is a short covering rally
<gary fullett> this is called Prelimninary support
<gary fullett> but to the other Cms
<gary fullett> this rally is designed
<gary fullett> to tell other cms
User [Steve /63.113.80.163] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 21:56:21 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> that the downtrend move is about to end
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> and for the cm to get ready
<Chuck>
<gary fullett> for the pending selling cliamx
<gary fullett> to Cm talk on the phone as well and run campaigns?
<gary fullett> to happen
<gary fullett> also like to be in company with other cms
<gary fullett> because the CM though they compete many times
<gary fullett> answer is YES they do
<gary fullett> because they can "control the markets " easier
<gary fullett> do u understand this?
<gary fullett> questions so far?
<tom> how do they engineer a sc
<Steve> Could explain cm's talking to each other with spreads and price action a little further
<Steve> Spreads narrow as they get ready to sell?
<Joe K>
<Zack>
<gary fullett> spreads can narrow as well as widen steve
<gary fullett> they enginner a sellig climax
<Brian>
<gary fullett> and they jknow the funds are short
<gary fullett> by knowing the market action is bearish
<gary fullett> and they know the public is short
<gary fullett> so when the Cm sees the pick up in volume and price action
<gary fullett> and the "news: is most bearish
<gary fullett> than they are today
<gary fullett> that prices will be higher
<gary fullett> the Cm knows that months down the raod
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> they Know that the funds get shorter and shorter
<gary fullett> mentality
<gary fullett> so they know the publics mantality
<gary fullett> as the markets makes new lows
<gary fullett> so they see this bearishness
<gary fullett> a long postions
<gary fullett> and they begin to accumulate
<gary fullett> and buy during this beariness
<gary fullett> do u understand tom?
<gary fullett> the cm can assume less risk less amrgin
<tom> y
<gary fullett> steve I didnt forget u
<gary fullett> by spreading
<gary fullett> in the direction that they want to be
<gary fullett> as the trend of th market is the other way
<gary fullett> this is a way
<gary fullett> they they can accumalte with little risk in a bearish market
<gary fullett> very quietly
<gary fullett> to the cm they can put on a alrge postion
<gary fullett> with little risk
<gary fullett> and little margin
<Chuck>
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> and the bear spreads dont make money
<gary fullett> when u see a market make new lows
<gary fullett> this is the way u can see that the CM is acculating
<gary fullett> maRket
<gary fullett> because in a bearish amrket bear spreads should work right?
<gary fullett> this is also a tip off to other cms and to u
<gary fullett> market
<gary fullett> when bull spreads work in a down market
<gary fullett> they can accumalte lightly
<gary fullett> this should be a red flag for u
<gary fullett> since the cm knows that it takes time for cause to build
<gary fullett> he can bull spread in a down market biding time
<gary fullett> so when the News turns he can profit
<gary fullett> so u need to watch that correction
<gary fullett> and spreads
<gary fullett> do u understand how they do this?
<Steve> no
<RBnCA> n
<gary fullett> I will give an example
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> right?
<gary fullett> being long may wheat short july wheat is a bullish spread
<Chuck>
<gary fullett> may wheat is at 300
<gary fullett> lets say
<RBnCA> k
<gary fullett> well it is
<gary fullett> the spread is at 10 cents right?
<gary fullett> and july wheat is at 310
<RBnCA> y
<gary fullett> wheat breaks
<gary fullett> may falls to 295
<Brian> good night, have a good weekend.
User [Brian] left forum on Thu Apr 26 22:12:51 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> what is the spread now?
<gary fullett> and july falls to 303
<gary fullett> so the spread narrowed by 2 cents
<gary fullett> 303 minus 295
<gary fullett> 8 cents right?
<gary fullett> But the market went down
<gary fullett> and the bull spread made 2 ents
<gary fullett> so the market went down
<Chuck>
<RBnCA> Somebody still made money
<gary fullett> this is an example
<gary fullett> cents?
<gary fullett> right?
<gary fullett> normally may should fall more than july
<gary fullett> do u see this?
<gary fullett> this is how the CM can acculate a long postion
<gary fullett> in a bearish amrket
<gary fullett> of a bull spread making money in a down amrket
<gary fullett> do u understand this?
<gary fullett> this is how they can control the spread
<gary fullett> butt july fell more
<gary fullett> of course
<gary fullett> the poeple who were long may short july made 2 cents
<Steve> gotcha. thanks
<Steve> a lot to keep an eye on
<gary fullett> does this make sense Mr steve?
<Steve> Mr - lol
<gary fullett> yes there is
<gary fullett> but this is the first tip off
<gary fullett> alot to watch
<gary fullett> of the cm buying in a down market
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> he makes money as the trend is bearish being long
<gary fullett> I want to talk on how the CM can control the trading range
<tom> will be re-reading this
<Steve> me too, tom
<Chuck>
<gary fullett> u can always call or email me if u want
<Zack>
<gary fullett> 877-306-7100 toll free
<gary fullett> riskybiz99@aol.com
<gary fullett> how does a cm control the range?
<gary fullett> well one would expect
<gary fullett> volume and price action
<gary fullett> to correlate to one another
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> lets take beans as an example
<gary fullett> lets say the average volume in beans is 100k
<gary fullett> and the market has been going down
<gary fullett> and the range is about 10 cents
<gary fullett> the CM can make this trading range smaller
<gary fullett> this is called " the shortening of the downward thrust
<gary fullett> as the market is going down
<gary fullett> one would expect more volume
<gary fullett> and wider price action
<gary fullett> this would show supply or selling in a down trend
<gary fullett> this is normal market behavior right? in a bearish amrket
<Chuck> y
<gary fullett> now let say beans have a 4 cent range
<gary fullett> and the volume is 150 K as the market is 2 cents lower for the day?
<gary fullett> so u have a shorter range
<gary fullett> and who do u think is controlling the range?
<gary fullett> who do u think is buying this increased volume
<gary fullett> larger voluem right
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> why does he do this?
<RBnCA> whoa
<gary fullett> the CM
<Jairo> CM
<gary fullett> why doesnt he let the market fall?
<gary fullett> and the , amrket is going lower
<gary fullett> he does this because he is long
<gary fullett> he doesnt want this to happen
<gary fullett> and the tecnical picture will become more bearish
<gary fullett> the funds will sell more
<gary fullett> because if he does
<gary fullett> so he doesnt want the market to induce more
<gary fullett> selling so he buys vigursly
<gary fullett> he will rally the market
<gary fullett> becaus ehe know shortly
<gary fullett> and he doesnt have to over come a sharp break
<gary fullett> so he controls the range Buy buying
<gary fullett> this is called a shortening of the downward thrust
<gary fullett> the same is true
<gary fullett> of a market that rallies
<gary fullett> this is called a shotening of the upward thrust
<gary fullett> do u understand this?
<Steve> same on secondary test?
<gary fullett> do u know why the cm wants to do this
<gary fullett> sometimes
<gary fullett> is like this
<gary fullett> generally the secondary test
<Steve> exhausts the selling on the climax
<gary fullett> he lets the market fall
<gary fullett> it can occur within a trading range
<gary fullett> doesnt have to be on a retest
<Jairo>
<RBnCA> is this why the price action seems to be delayed behind heavy v?
<gary fullett> but the shortening of the thrust
<gary fullett> generaly on a retest
<gary fullett> the volume is Lighter
<gary fullett> but the secondary test doesnt have to be a shortening of the thrust
<gary fullett> and price action is smaller
<gary fullett> no not really
<gary fullett> price action and volume generally correlate
<gary fullett> but when they dont correlate
<gary fullett> that a trend may be changing at least short term
<gary fullett> u must relieze
<Steve> That makes a lot of sense
<gary fullett> I hope so steve
<gary fullett> I think wyckoff makes sense
<gary fullett> and is the way to look at markets :)
User [Chuck /64.199.213.2] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 22:36:47 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> is the way the cm control price action
<gary fullett> so the shorting of the thrusts
User [lmarsh /209.172.205.154] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 22:36:48 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> because he doesnt want the tech picture
<gary fullett> to get out of hand and induce the funds
<gary fullett> to trade opposite the way hs postion is
<gary fullett> and it happens beause the funds sell or buy
<gary fullett> and the cm is ready to go the other way
<gary fullett> the way he is postion
<gary fullett> because he knows
<lmarsh> hi all
<gary fullett> so he supports he postion
<gary fullett> the market is ready
User [Charlie /64.199.212.241] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 22:37:59 EDT 2001
<Zack> Hey lmarsh
<gary fullett> nd if he lets the amrket get out of control he Must fight the funds
<gary fullett> if you dont understand this please reread the log u will understand
<Steve> my brain is full tonight, Gary. Gotta run. Thanks.
<gary fullett> hi lamrsh hi charlie
<Jairo> hi lmarsh
<Charlie> me Chuck
<Charlie> locked up
User [Steve] left forum on Thu Apr 26 22:39:32 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> okay I will leave the discussion open to any thoughts
<gary fullett> as i wont go over more principles
<Charlie> are we lookong at a sc in wheat?
<gary fullett> any questions ? on anything tonight?
<RBnCA> that would be great
<RBnCA> but probably too late
<gary fullett> wheat is in a trading range
<gary fullett> and we just retested support in the daily chart
<gary fullett> good :)
<RBnCA> I need too check the markets before I come to class.
<Charlie> we had fairly little price action today on high volume
<gary fullett> yes rb that would be great
<RBnCA> someone is absorbing that v G?
<gary fullett> yes could pull back herer
<gary fullett> here
<Jairo> great class as always, Gary. Thanks. night all.
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<Zack> nite Jairo
<RBnCA> wheat does not have to break its range this year just because we are excited, y?
<lmarsh> nite Jairo
<Charlie> gn jairo
User [Jairo] left forum on Thu Apr 26 22:48:07 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> nope
<Charlie> true
<gary fullett> let market action dictate direction
<gary fullett> it hasnt shown strenghth yet
<gary fullett> night jairo
<gary fullett> above 273 i think this is very constructive
<lmarsh> Gary, you mentioned wheat in a trading range, corn looks the same. But on wheat/corn spread wheat was doing well, but now it's stalled out,....resting on trendline.
<gary fullett> corn is weaker than wheat
User [tom /172.168.80.40] joined forum on Thu Apr 26 22:50:13 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> so I think u will see wht corn spread move out
<lmarsh> oops, forget that last post,.. i had the spread on intraday...... my error,.......don't kill me Zack!!!!!!
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> so wheat to me should be more bullish than corn
<lmarsh> thought somthing did'nt look just right,......
<Zack> Forty lashes with a wet noodle lmarsh :):)
<Charlie> lol :)
<lmarsh> ouch*40
<gary fullett> and zack has 3 thumbs :)LOL
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<RBnCA> thanks Gary. great insight. Try to come more often
<gary fullett> other wise I will call it a night and a weekend for class.. and see u all on tuesday
<Zack> lol
<lmarsh> need words of wisdom, oh great one!
<gary fullett> I am here tuesday thru thuirs
<gary fullett> so come anytime
<gary fullett> the price is alwasy the same
<gary fullett> not me
<gary fullett> I am doubling the price next week
<gary fullett> from what i charge now
<Zack> Tell Kelly to bill me :)
<gary fullett> if gas prices can double so can I
<lmarsh> lol
<gary fullett> I will bill u triple for class zack since u r a long time student LOL:)
<tom> have a good week-end, thanks
<lmarsh> paid $1.56 this morning
User [tom] left forum on Thu Apr 26 22:54:05 EDT 2001
<gary fullett> good night everyone be safe :)
<Charlie> great session gary! Thanx! Good nite all, see ya next week.
<gary fullett> Ichicago is at 2 bucks
<gary fullett> so u saved 44 cents lamrsh
<gary fullett> good night
<Zack> Take care guys--nite
User [gary fullett] left forum on Thu Apr 26 22:54:47 EDT 2001