User [gary fullett /24.240.192.12] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 21:07:23 EST 2001
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
<Brian> I don't know what all that means to a mere mortal yet.
<Zack> Hey Gary
<Brian> Hi Gary
<corey> hi gary
<Mitch> hi gary
<Zack> To put it very simply Brian,--could be a "shor squeeze" in the physical market
<Brian> Ahhh, much better
<gary fullett> I will begin in several minutes okay:)?
<corey> ok
<gary fullett> I want to go over the wyckoff wave tonight
<gary fullett> and I want any late comers to catch it as well
<corey> cool
<gary fullett> so I will begin in several minutes
<gary fullett> Important night for the new people
<gary fullett> and a good refresher
User [frank /216.176.171.121] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 21:13:12 EST 2001
<Zack> Hi rank
<frank> hi zack
<gary fullett> hi frank
<frank> hi gary
<corey> q gary
<gary fullett> please ask corey
<gary fullett> and if there are other question please ask now?
<corey> what does the word ice mean?
<corey> I see it s resistance but why ice
<gary fullett> I will explain ice tonight :)
<corey> allright
<gary fullett> but breifly
<gary fullett> lets say u have a trading range
<Mitch> I think of it as an ice fishing scenario
<Zack> It's a "cool" term corey--:)
<gary fullett> with support being the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> if this is broken support being broken
<gary fullett> this is like breaking of the ice or support
<gary fullett> like falling thru a pond that is frozen
<corey> okay I think I understand
<gary fullett> so when u break that support is a breaking of the ice
<corey> okay
<gary fullett> and that support becomes resisatnce
<gary fullett> so it is called ICE
<corey> thanks
<gary fullett> but I will explain fully tonight
<gary fullett> it isnt a wyckoff term really
<gary fullett> but it is a way to exaplin the actions
User [don /161.184.26.118] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 21:18:30 EST 2001
<corey> I like it, a little more vivid
<gary fullett> any other questions before I bgin the wave
<gary fullett> Hi don
<don> hello all
<Zack> Hi don
<gary fullett> that is why it is used corey
<corey> hi don
<gary fullett> to exaplian the action
<gary fullett> lets do the wave :)
<frank> hi don
<gary fullett> do u all have the wave with u?
<Brian> y
<frank> y
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> lets go from ber market to a bull market
<gary fullett> please remeber the terms I used last week
<gary fullett> he 3 principles
<gary fullett> demand vs supply
<gary fullett> effort vs result
<gary fullett> casue vs effect
<gary fullett> cause
<gary fullett> are there any questiosn with those terms?
<gary fullett> okay no answers means I assume u know
<gary fullett> a market will continue lower
<gary fullett> in a bear market till u have a selling climax
<gary fullett> what is a selling climax
<gary fullett> ?
<gary fullett> it is when the news is MOST bearish
<gary fullett> at the end of this
<frank> lg vol
<gary fullett> the market will go down on the heaviest volume of the down move
<gary fullett> with a very large trading range
<gary fullett> why?
<gary fullett> it is at this point where margin calls happen
<gary fullett> the weak longs throw in the towel
<frank> because the longs are run out
<gary fullett> the fear of the market going lower causes
<gary fullett> panic
<gary fullett> so u have a large range heaviest volume
<gary fullett> so if the wek longs get out
<gary fullett> and the funds are short because they are trend followers
<gary fullett> who is Long on a selling climax?
<Brian> cm
<don> me
<Zack> The CM :)
<frank> commercials
<gary fullett> don :)
<gary fullett> well the smart money is long
<gary fullett> IE the CM
<gary fullett> why is he long?
<gary fullett> because he "knows:
<gary fullett> that the mood is bearish
<gary fullett> he knows
<Mitch> he can afford it
<gary fullett> that the amrket is coming to the culmination
<frank> because the price is expected to advance
<gary fullett> of the bear move
<gary fullett> and he knows
<gary fullett> that the next move will be higher
<gary fullett> But he knows that a market just cant turn up
<gary fullett> because he needs to prepare for it
<gary fullett> remember the 3 principles
<frank> accumulation
<gary fullett> cause vs effect
<gary fullett> he needs cause or preparation
User [Jairo /216.192.84.62] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 21:26:49 EST 2001
<gary fullett> to have the market sustain a move ( effect
<gary fullett> hi jairo
<Jairo> Hi everyone - sorry I'm late
<gary fullett> do u understand this
<Zack> Hi Jairo
<gary fullett> this is the backbone of wyckoff
<frank> y
<don> Jairo
<corey> y
<Brian> y
<gary fullett> so after the Selling climax
<gary fullett> what happens
<gary fullett> the cm is buying the weak longs
<gary fullett> as well as the funds selling to him
<frank> accumulation
<gary fullett> he conducts a rally
<gary fullett> this rally is called AR or automatic rally
<gary fullett> it is rally to unload the longs he boight on the selling climax
<gary fullett> but not all his longs
<gary fullett> this AR cause shorts to cover
<gary fullett> so the rally is sharp
<gary fullett> volume is High
<gary fullett> but NOT as high as the SC is
<gary fullett> the rally will take u generally to the first resiatnce
<gary fullett> and fail
<gary fullett> becuase at rsistance
<gary fullett> people will sell thinking th down move will continue
<gary fullett> they are selling because they feel the trend is Down
User [don] left forum on Wed Mar 07 21:29:57 EST 2001
<gary fullett> after the SC
<gary fullett> to wyckoff the tend is UP
<Mitch>
<gary fullett> BUT
<Zack>
<Brian>
<gary fullett> to other technicains
<gary fullett> it is still down
User [don /161.184.26.118] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 21:30:27 EST 2001
<gary fullett> the cm knows he must do some work prepare
<gary fullett> to sustain a move
<gary fullett> cause vs effect
<corey>
<gary fullett> so at resistance traders sell
<gary fullett> the market then will retest
<gary fullett> back to or near the selling climax
<gary fullett> the volume on this retest generally is lighter
User [Guestjlo /207.69.1.167] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 21:31:35 EST 2001
<Mitch> the " secondary test?"
<gary fullett> this indicates demand is beginnning to over come supply
<gary fullett> yep mitch
<Mitch> ok
<gary fullett> so supply is drying up
<Zack> Hi tjlo
<gary fullett> or there are less sellers
<gary fullett> this retest
<gary fullett> is the amrkets way of building cause
<gary fullett> in this calse accumaltion
<gary fullett> case
<gary fullett> so after the retest
<gary fullett> what does the market do?
<gary fullett> it will trade between the high of the AR
<gary fullett> and the SC
<gary fullett> this is a sideways trading range
<gary fullett> as the market is building cause
<gary fullett> the CM will buy support at the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> and sell some
<gary fullett> at resisatnce
<gary fullett> but on balance he is net long
<gary fullett> this is why I say buy support sell resisatnce
<gary fullett> so this range
<gary fullett> is building for a move higher in this case
<gary fullett> this trading range can be seen on a daily weekly monthly
<gary fullett> as well as intraday
<gary fullett> wheat do we know about this trading range
<gary fullett> u can draw horizonatl lines to see this
<gary fullett> we know
<gary fullett> that the longer it go sideways the larger the move
<Mitch>
<Brian>
<corey>
<gary fullett> cause vs effect
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> questions so far
<gary fullett> this is very very important stuff
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> this takes u to the chart u have
<gary fullett> at the top of this trading range
<gary fullett> the top of the AR
<gary fullett> this is called creek
<Zack>
<gary fullett> when the CM is ready to mark up prices he will do so
<gary fullett> but he needs the "news" to be with him so he has followers
<gary fullett> the news is still negative at this point
<gary fullett> but the CM knows news will improve
<gary fullett> most traders are short here as the cm is long
<don>
<gary fullett> this is why COT is always behind
<gary fullett> lagging indicator for the most part
<corey>
<gary fullett> so when the CM has accumalted his position
<gary fullett> and he feels the market will support a rally
<gary fullett> he generally will mark up prices
<gary fullett> thjis mark up in prices corresponds to some bullish news
<gary fullett> and at the top of ressiatnce or creek
<gary fullett> he will generally gap it higher
<gary fullett> this gap is called a jump over the creek
<gary fullett> or a sign of strenghth
<gary fullett> volume picks up
<gary fullett> on the rally
<gary fullett> indicating demand
<gary fullett> over supply
<gary fullett> the traders begin to buy this "break out
<gary fullett> thjis gap is called a "jump over the creek
<frank>
<gary fullett> or a sign of strenghth
<gary fullett> on your chart
<gary fullett> do u see this on the chat?
<gary fullett> chart?
<Mitch> is this our tip off gary?
<gary fullett> ahh great q
<gary fullett> I was waiting for that :)
<Mitch> well its here lol
<gary fullett> at resistance u will see positive price action
<gary fullett> on the rallies to resiatnce u will see an increase in volume
<gary fullett> and an increase in price action
<gary fullett> orindicating demand
<gary fullett> or u will see smaller range
<gary fullett> as the selling is being absorbed
<gary fullett> and light volume
<gary fullett> as selling is light
<gary fullett> and is being bought up
<gary fullett> But remeber the CM doesnt buy near resisatnce
<gary fullett> so he doesnt buy near the top of the range
<corey>
<gary fullett> he lets other traders buy there so thier Risk is greater
<gary fullett> okay mitch?
<Mitch> ok thanks
<gary fullett> great q
<gary fullett> any other q?
<Zack>
<Mitch> happy to help : )
<Brian> n
<don>
<corey> n
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> now on the rallies
<gary fullett> te volume will be heavier
<gary fullett> and on the pullbacks the volume will be lighter
<gary fullett> this is because demand ( buying ) is over coming resisatnce ( supply
<gary fullett> the path of least resistance is Now up
<gary fullett> the news is getting more bullish
<gary fullett> but still slightly negative
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> the market rallies
<gary fullett> ithe market will generally retest support
<gary fullett> this support is first at the resisatnce that is gapped when it jumped over the creek
<gary fullett> so on a retest after it jumped over th e creek
<gary fullett> is the safest place for a wyckoff student to enetr a long position
<gary fullett> because the market has proven itself
<gary fullett> by the jump or the sign of strenghth SOS
<gary fullett> it has already built cause
<gary fullett> that previous resistance is Now solid support
<gary fullett> lets give some numbers
<gary fullett> wheat has a selling climax at 200
<gary fullett> then an automatic rally to 230
<gary fullett> then a retest to 200
<gary fullett> a trading range feom 200-230
<gary fullett> for several months
<gary fullett> a gap over 230
<gary fullett> a JOC or SOS
<gary fullett> JOC jump over creek
<gary fullett> a moave to 240
<gary fullett> then a retest
<gary fullett> to 230
<gary fullett> BUY BUY BUY!!!!
<gary fullett> stop underneath the creek!!!!
<Jairo>
<corey>
<Mitch>
<Zack>
<Brian>
<frank>
<don>
<gary fullett> questions?
<gary fullett> understand?
<frank> y
<gary fullett> wonderful
<gary fullett> than a rally above 240
<gary fullett> to lets say 260
<frank> another question?
<gary fullett> the market has a trading range from 230
<gary fullett> to 260
<gary fullett> now 230 is new support old resistance
<gary fullett> yes frank
<gary fullett> q?
<frank> is the crop report out friday or monday?
<gary fullett> neither
<don> thursday
<gary fullett> tomorrow
<Brian> q
<frank> oh!
<frank> thanks
<gary fullett> I will double check though 1 sec
<corey>
<gary fullett> tomorrow is right crop production
<Brian> Do you like to be in the market before this particular report??
<gary fullett> yes brian
<frank> thanks
<gary fullett> to a wyckoof student news doesnt matter
<gary fullett> what does the chart say?
<Brian> any day now
<gary fullett> neews wuill enchace your postion
<Brian> another q
<gary fullett> if u understand market behavior
<gary fullett> yes brian
<Brian> JOC, is what we've seen in the BP in the last 5 days?
<don> often the action into the report say more than the report
<gary fullett> No i wish we did in the pound
<Brian> k
<gary fullett> not really in the pound it is sideways here
<gary fullett> yes Don FULLY agree
<Zack>
<gary fullett> it isnt the news
<gary fullett> it is how the CM reacts to the News that is critical
<gary fullett> u can have the Most bullish news
<gary fullett> and the amrket doesnt move up
<Mitch>
<gary fullett> what does this tell u?
<corey>
<gary fullett> if everyone is buying this bullish news who is selling/
<Brian> cm
<don> me
<Brian> lol
<Mitch> commercials
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> so it how the market REACTS to news
<gary fullett> not thae fact of the news
<gary fullett> do u understand this differnce?
<Brian> kinda
<gary fullett> DONT try to interpert NEWS
<gary fullett> the CM does this for u
<gary fullett> in market direaction
<gary fullett> if the news is bullish
<gary fullett> the cm tips this to u with price action and volume
<gary fullett> dont try to interpert the news
<gary fullett> the cm in the know knows this
<gary fullett> U will NEVER know all the NEWS
<gary fullett> BUT u will ALWAYS see price action and volume
<gary fullett> they CANT hide that
<gary fullett> but they can hide news
<gary fullett> do u understand this?
<Brian> y
<Mitch> I have a q on theory
<Jairo> y
<gary fullett> k mitch please
<Mitch> whydoes the cm want to flush weak longs/shorts? is this how they
<Mitch> talk to each other?
<Mitch> or just take their money
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> they talked to each other by price action
<gary fullett> the AR
<gary fullett> tels them that strenghth i beginning
<Mitch> ok
<gary fullett> the SC says that a campaign will soon start after accumaltion
<gary fullett> great term "talking"
<Mitch> thats what I thought
<gary fullett> very approapite
<frank> because weak longs and shorts stampede in the face of diversity
<Mitch> trying to visualize it all
<gary fullett> yes sir
<gary fullett> and that is why I am giving u examples with price
<gary fullett> and going slow
<gary fullett> and through
<Zack>
<frank> u are doing a great job gary
<corey> yes
<gary fullett> i want u to understand all terms and terminolgy
<gary fullett> this is foundation
<corey> Its all starting to come together
<Mitch> theres alot for a newcomer to keep in head
<corey> yes it is, very helpful. it's a new perspective to looking at charts
<gary fullett> so I will go as slow as necessary
<gary fullett> for u to understand
<Jairo>
<corey> Your doing a great job at it right now
<corey> I like that you trade yourself
<gary fullett> yes it is mitch but u understand with experience and work
<gary fullett> so the amrket wil rally
<gary fullett> holing support as it is being marked up
<gary fullett> holding
<gary fullett> the market is turning more bullish
<Zack> After you get really used to it--you can't look at charts any othere way :)
<gary fullett> the news is getting bullish
<gary fullett> thas more and more bullisnes sets in
<gary fullett> the cm sees this
<gary fullett> greed begins to set in
<gary fullett> the ranges are wider
<gary fullett> and the volume picks up
<gary fullett> the funds begin to get long the public begins to get long
<gary fullett> then at some point
<gary fullett> selling comes in
<don>
<gary fullett> who is selling?
<Brian> cm
<Jairo> cm
<Mitch> locals
<gary fullett> the cm begind to unlaod
<gary fullett> some of his longs that he bought
<gary fullett> duriing the trading range
<gary fullett> remeber that!!!
<gary fullett> so he has HUGE profits
<gary fullett> But the tend is UP
<gary fullett> trend
<gary fullett> this first selling by the CM
<gary fullett> afer the up trend
<gary fullett> is called Prelaimary supply
User [Guest /216.10.187.218] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 22:14:05 EST 2001
<gary fullett> it is the first selling
<gary fullett> by the cm in an uptrend
<gary fullett> significant selling
<gary fullett> thee volume increases as well as the range
<gary fullett> at this point the funds are long
<gary fullett> as well as the public
<gary fullett> so the public now buiys this break
<gary fullett> becuase he sees an pooprtunity
<gary fullett> the nws is bullish
<gary fullett> the cm sells
<gary fullett> then the funds and others
<gary fullett> rumn the market UP to news highs
<gary fullett> the market is Now bullish very bullish
<gary fullett> everyone ( except the cm )
<gary fullett> buys buys buys
<gary fullett> as to not miss the move
<gary fullett> greed begins to set in
<gary fullett> this leads to a lrage move up
<gary fullett> with the heaviest volume
<gary fullett> of the up trend
<gary fullett> this is called a buying climax
<gary fullett> or BC
<Jairo>
<Brian>
<gary fullett> the news here is very bullish example natral gas
<corey>
<gary fullett> the nasdaq last march
<Mitch> thanks gary goodnight people
<gary fullett> when everyone was dy trading
User [Mitch] left forum on Wed Mar 07 22:17:21 EST 2001
<gary fullett> do u see where it says Buying cliamx on the chart?
<Brian> y
<gary fullett> a belated welcome guest
<gary fullett> after the buying cliamx
<gary fullett> the market will have a pullback
<gary fullett> this is because the cm is selling and unlaoding the rest of his longs
<gary fullett> rember the cm just can sell his whole postion in 1 day
<gary fullett> he scales out
<gary fullett> as not to tip off the public
<gary fullett> after this break the market will retest the highs of the BC or near it
<gary fullett> then form a trading range
<don>
<gary fullett> this trading range is now selling on balance
<gary fullett> but the news is bullish
<gary fullett> coccoa at 1200 area
<gary fullett> this sideways action is now distribution
<gary fullett> remember the price action is relative to volume
<frank>
<Zack>
<gary fullett> effort vs result
<gary fullett> the market forms a sideways trading range
<gary fullett> then support is broken the vlume increases
<corey>
<gary fullett> this is a breaking of the ice
<gary fullett> or sign of weakness
<gary fullett> the news is still bullish
<gary fullett> the market breaks the public buys this break as the cm sells
<gary fullett> the market will go down
<gary fullett> supply ( selling) overcoming ( demand) buying
<gary fullett> the public buys the breaks as they think the tend is up
<gary fullett> trend
<gary fullett> the market will continue lower
<gary fullett> resting
<gary fullett> the previous support Now resisatnce
<gary fullett> buuilding cause to go lower...
<gary fullett> the market will have heavier volume on the breaks than the rallies
<gary fullett> the ranges are widewr to the down relative to the rallies
<gary fullett> ths will continue
<gary fullett> till bearish sets in
<gary fullett> and the cm sees a bottom in sight
<gary fullett> when he does
<gary fullett> he conducts a raly called Prelaimary demand or prelimary support
<gary fullett> this is seen when u see
<gary fullett> a sharp rally in the midst of a down turn
<gary fullett> this is a signal to the cm that the downturn is coming to an end
<gary fullett> then a shrp break with heavy volume negative news
<gary fullett> crude at 1100
<gary fullett> hope is giving up
<gary fullett> fea sets in
<gary fullett> funds are heavily short
<gary fullett> the public is short
<gary fullett> guess who is buying theses shorts?
<Brian> cm
<gary fullett> YEP
<Brian> all over again
<gary fullett> this wide price action heaviest if volume
<gary fullett> this is called the sellign climax SC
<gary fullett> this actions happens in ALL time frames
<gary fullett> intraday
<gary fullett> daily weekly monthly
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> ALL TIME FRAMES
<gary fullett> I can send u a 5 minute
<gary fullett> chart to a monthly chart and show u this
<gary fullett> even 1 minut charts :)
<Zack>
<gary fullett> there are internmedteriate moves within thses terms
<don>
<gary fullett> but the is a rough drawing of wyckoff wave
<gary fullett> I will go into more detail with charts
<gary fullett> but thatis the basic
<gary fullett> a JOC jumpover the creek
<gary fullett> is oppisite of a breaking of the ice
<Zack> Clap. Clap, Clap--very nicely done Gary :)
<gary fullett> whew !!!!!
<Brian> yes
<don>
<gary fullett> Now any questions?
<corey> nice job gary
<gary fullett> does this make sense?
<Brian> very well said
<Brian> yes
<gary fullett> it is the way to look at markets NO NEWS
<gary fullett> i know it is still raw in yoru mind
<gary fullett> but u can write me or call me anytime and I will help
<gary fullett> 877 306-7100 toll free
<gary fullett> questions
<gary fullett> wheat has a sideways trading range
<gary fullett> for 3 yrs
<gary fullett> natural gas did too before it had a massive move
<gary fullett> even though wyckoff folows NO newsit is hard work this is why most dont follow it
<gary fullett> they dont want to work hard at it
<gary fullett> there a re tip off s that I can help u with
<gary fullett> with my experience
<gary fullett> it takes time patience experience
<gary fullett> to fuly undersatnd
<gary fullett> afer 20 yrs I am still learning
<don> money :)
<gary fullett> yes don correct
<gary fullett> that always helps
User [Guest /216.10.187.218] joined forum on Wed Mar 07 22:35:23 EST 2001
<gary fullett> No questions?
<frank>
<Brian> Hi guest
<gary fullett> does this make sense or u dont know what to ask?
<Brian> hit your return
<Brian> button every 10 minutes or so
<gary fullett> it is a logical way to look at markets
<gary fullett> I have a q?
<corey>
<Zack> You should get Kelly to bookmark tonight's session for a clear explanation of the wave Gary :)
<gary fullett> who knows what head and shoulders formation is?
<Brian> yes gary
<Brian> I do
<gary fullett> I am going to do that zack
<gary fullett> I did think of that :)
<corey> i do
<Brian> Same as sc and retest
<gary fullett> usually I dont zack :)
<gary fullett> it is a retest right brain
<frank> just for grins may corn has retraced 52% back toward 215
<Guest> <Enter Text Here>
<gary fullett> do u think head and shoulders are an effective way to tradre?
<Brian> not so far
<gary fullett> so this retest is a decnt by area huh frank 50 percent
<gary fullett> head and shoulders work about 50 percent of the time
<gary fullett> the prob with that is that u r watching formations and patterns and NOT
<gary fullett> market action
<gary fullett> so for everyone that works I can show u one that doesnt
<frank> th retracements have previously been 60% and 80%
<gary fullett> point is:
<gary fullett> watch markets action
<gary fullett> volume and price action
<gary fullett> NOT patterns, news , waves
<gary fullett> wyckoff fond that 50 percent retraces are the Best retracements
<frank> put in a resting buy order at 226 or better
<gary fullett> the prob with waves is that u are looking at the wave
<gary fullett> like wave 3
<gary fullett> a of b ext,,,
<gary fullett> and Not MARKET behavior
<gary fullett> the amrket woill talk to u
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> market
<gary fullett> let the CM talk to u
<gary fullett> by market action and volume..
<frank> the first two retracements were just short of .382
<gary fullett> yes there is still risk
<gary fullett> But u can learn to effectively trade
<gary fullett> by watching as zack says
<frank> and this retracement is from 50
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<gary fullett> the peopel with the know and the dough
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<frank>
<gary fullett> the CM or composite man
<Brian> spasm frank? :)
<corey>
<gary fullett> cat on his keyboard
<frank> this damn thing
<Brian> Kidding
<Brian> lol
<gary fullett> family wb site frank :)lol
<gary fullett> web
<Brian> LOL,LOL
<Zack> Delete Kelly--delet ;)
<gary fullett> :)lol
<gary fullett> I think tonight gave u a nice backround
<gary fullett> of the wyckoff wave
<gary fullett> and it didnt hurt huh?
<frank> the reactions back down have been from .382 and from the 50% as well
<frank> of the previous move
<frank> down
<gary fullett> thank u frank
<gary fullett> are there any questions
<gary fullett> on amrkets or anything tonight?
<frank> good class gary , good night
<Brian> Great class, I have to go to work now thanks. I'm late.
User [frank] left forum on Wed Mar 07 22:45:45 EST 2001
<corey> great job gary
<gary fullett> okay I will leave it at this tonight
<Brian>
User [Brian] left forum on Wed Mar 07 22:46:02 EST 2001
<gary fullett> so u can all soak your heads with info
<Jairo> Excellent - thanks as always
<gary fullett> I will see u all tomorrow night
<Jairo> night
User [Jairo] left forum on Wed Mar 07 22:46:16 EST 2001
<gary fullett> I try jairo
<Zack> Nite all
<gary fullett> good night all good trading
User [Zack] left forum on Wed Mar 07 22:46:34 EST 2001
User [gary fullett] left forum on Wed Mar 07 22:46:37 EST 2001