User [gary fullett /24.240.192.12] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:02:54 EST 2001 User [Zack /206.71.103.1] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:04:29 EST 2001 User [Jairo /216.192.116.22] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:07:10 EST 2001 User [BMan /12.79.215.27] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:10:22 EST 2001 Welcome BMan good evening everyone welcome bman Thanks, so what is tonights discussion focusing on? I will have an open forum this evening since several people cant make it tonight I will have an open forum what is on your mind bman bman do u have a particulat topic you would like me to discuss or a question anyone Wheat has an interesting long term congestion which looks to be breaking, but I do not have a chart which I can combine all we talked about wheat last night volume on to get an idea of total vol. for futures wheat is very bullish to me it held up wonderfully wheat is very bullish to me Gotcha, I will look at the archive it has had preparation Do you find the day delay in volume on a futures chart a disadvantage, or are you usually concentrating on a longer time frame? for a move for about 2 yrs I want to pointout somthing very interesting wheat was strong going into the report and beans weak and the report said exactly that I think some big people knew the report huh? That is why news reports dont mean alot if u watch your charts correctly iit is factored in great q bman I have tick volume so that gives me voluime intraday so I dont have to wait for volume I concentrate on all times frames from intradaY TO MONTHLY all must be watched to be a sucessfull trader how do u get your volume bman Tick volume is just how many times the price reporter enters a price into the quote machine though, not true trading volume as you get in stocks. that is true bman But tick volume is a very good guestimate of the volume in the pit because the price fluctuations represent a volume When I was on the floor, I would get an idea of volume from being there, but if it was another pit, I would get the numbers two hours after the close now I wait like everyone else User [Frank /216.176.170.34] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:20:21 EST 2001 and this volume is estimated but very close to real volume Hi Frank u get estimated volume on the exchange floor hi zack it is on the boards they get estimated volume on the floor by tick volume hey Frank hi gary u can get estimated volume as it happens bman In the futures all volume is really an estimate, even the one they distribute can be quite a bit off. I was just curious as to if it hindered your analysis. well volume is all estimated as it happens until trades clear by the next day but tick volume is a good guestimate it is Not the actaul volume that is important on a daily basis per se but it is how the volume is relatibve to the time frame u are in Agreed, except from NY, their tick vol means nothing in other words if the volume is 10k or it is 9800 it probably doesnt mean much if the volume arund that area is about 10 k U can call the floor and get a estimate of volume Being entrenched in Wyckoff's ways, do you do much with P&F charts in the futures? I didn't really spot any in the archives i chart volumn spikes, using total volumn what floor did u trade on? NY is a differnt country anyway :) what exchange Bman? frank what do u make out of the wheats action today? bman I use them all the time p and f I havent gone over them in class yet I plan to in about 2 weeks User [mike /24.7.3.63] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:27:21 EST 2001 the reason why I havent gone over p and f in class BMan, if you don't mind my asking--do you use Wykoff principels in your trading ? Hi Mike is because I can get a decent idea of a move otherways and I know very very few will do p and f hi and if I discuss p and f quite frankly most wont do the work to understand it but I will discuss it in 2 weeks User [Jairo /216.192.116.22] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:28:38 EST 2001 Zack, yes and no. Wyckoff gives names to things I have watched for quite a while, which I had my own names for. But in general, I would agree with about everything he said perhaps you are right, but the close was not as strong as it should have been, and it is still at resistance297.5 of 10 12 I take the horizontal cause and turn it vertivcally and get an idea for class I do chart p and p for me what names do u have that wyckoff had bman? i would like too see tomarrows cot For example, we would call a BC or SC a blow off, either way. and todays volumn fair enough bman todays volume was fairly heavy in wheat today If something was in a tight range, and it broke down before it went up, we would call it a commercial squeeze, to get the weak hands out of the market. wyckofff called that a spring who uses the terms that u use bman? l dee belveal did gary I thought he call it shakeout I guess these came from other traders I have known over the years. As for the pit you asked earlier, beans and bonds Interesting--that's some of the terms we used in the penny stock market in Vancouverr back in the 60's cool zack It can be a shake out as well mike u r correct as well spring is the same as a shake out as far as what bman described trading nomenclature is not very standardized a trading range that jabs down thru suport then back into the range it is designed to shake out weak longs hit stops This is where the P&F come into play, I thought a spring was narrow days, a shakeout doesn't always have to be narrow and yes from weak hands to strong hands User [don /161.184.29.139] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:34:54 EST 2001 sprind doesnt have to be a narrow range day hi don spring can be a wide range day The language may change a litle but what I found most valuable in Wykoff is the relationship between price ation and volume--that helped put things into proper perspective hi a shake out doesnt have to be done in a trading range a spring generally does Hi don Zack, I agree wyckoff I think was the first to describe this action and other people related to it shakeouts usually out of trading range so it can catch stop orders User [Mark /206.117.248.102] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:37:10 EST 2001 good evening price action and volume is the most important feature Hey fast finger Mark :) you are correct zack that is a spring as well mike Hi zack springs happen under a trading range shakes out dont necessarily have to be but many times are personally I have difficult to determine sometimes when its shakeout when it trend reversal same here mike it depends on the time frame mike if u have had a bc Only an SC or BC give you a proper trend reversal signal Is my understanding on the longer term scale yes zack if u have a BC then the trend is down so u wont get a reversal to the uipside for awhile what is important in ime frame the trend may be down buy u still can get springs on a smaller time frame and u can trade counter trend please remeber that wyckoff has BC intraday as well as well as on a daily weekly and monthly but ui=intraday the cuase isnt large comapred to a daily weekly or monthly u must always look at the time frame u can expect a large move on an intraday chart but when u see it on a monthly generally a large move can happen due to the large cause or preparation I understand that Gary, just trying to clarify what to look for in a true "trend reversal" for Mike and Mark it difficult to use a monthly chart on stocks u have to look at at the proper time frame mike and u r correct zack Mike, it wasn't, until the parabolic moves in the last three years actually I don't use monthly at all question on building cause Gary.......what do you look for on volume during this period why Mike? follow through in the spreads can be a good indicator for trend reversals Bman right on. this why Gary to trade wyckoff U must use monthly charts Don, could you clarify what you mean a little by follow through in the spreads? correct don u still can chart montly charts on parabolic moves why not? spreads generally tip off a move before it happens bman during cause mark u will gneraly find volume to be lighter Are you spreading intra-market or intra-contract? sometimes within a range it can increase but generally lighter jockying for position one day a change in the spread warns of a change follow through conferms imo ok narrowing of spread? can be both bman watch all spreads I agree don wheat told u of this pending up move 2 weeks ago with the spreads though the bull spreads didnt move alot the wheat market did U have to chart monthly charts even if the ranges are huge u Must watch volume and price action all the time the cause time that a market goes thru is the Cm biding time before he can mark up or mark down a stock or commodity he will move it when when conditons are favorable Wheat spreads didn't go down when the futers did--showed support coming in when he doesnt want to move it he keeps it in the range like wheat it was ready to move Zack, wheat spread against what? wheat's been tough to trade because of the spreads, yhe've been very suttle But the Cm couldnt do it because of the weakness in the other grains wasnt the right time today yhe've wheat vs wheat like march may spreads bman but as zack said the spreads held up as the market moved down The March/May spread BMan this was a tippoff to an upmove do you think wheat will rtrace because of the weakness in the other grains? User [Frank /216.176.170.34] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:56:11 EST 2001 if the grains continue to break here yes I do mark how much cross in fluence k but there area lot of long wheat short beans spreads there and I think they may unwind unwind? they will sell the wheat longs and buy the beans short mark ahaa do the oposite of there positon and take profits ok I hope that helps :) always User [BMan] left forum on Thu Jan 11 21:58:46 EST 2001 I try beans/ could start tomorrow I think so my gut feeling is that beans are near there bottom beans/wheat User [Bman /12.79.215.27] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 21:59:22 EST 2001 there is an interesting spread in beans that I think i will place in the next few day options spreads from the weekly, i think beans could go to 480 to 475 but then again.....i thought they would hold 5 I think that beans will go sideways from now till the rest of the month and begin to raly in feb agree I would agree mark need some reason for demand I think i mentioned that feb would be strong in my mind to me this is a shakeout of the weak longs in beans shhok me out today :( i think march beans will bounce off 474 bought more beans today I agree with gary jan will accumulate for the most part, alot of downward momentum I never try to add to a losing position and fundamentallly weak I think beans will trad sideways for a bit User [Jairo] left forum on Thu Jan 11 22:02:57 EST 2001 Gary, curious as to details of the bean option spread you refered to. to build cause big inventory, and a big south america crop forecast though 480 might hold beans was the plan -> buying the 520 calls against selling 2 times as many 580 calls at even money and I think that that is why the market is having its final shakeoout i had stop at 4930 yesterday and the opening was killer today the cm cant mark up prices in this enviorment did make some back shorting at 4910 report days are tough but still hurt bean spreads had a good day today yes, and even though i KNEW it would be a hit, from the close yesterday, still held long.......sheesh beans closed weak yesterday it was a tip off the bear spreads don yes right!!!!!!! I think we suggested that sell bean buy wheat spread a few nights ago on this forum bull spreads gary march/july User [Terry W /64.197.237.56] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 22:06:26 EST 2001 how many times have i seen you right that the prior days close tipps off the report Hi Terry write I mean hi zack I see don Hi Terry that is why the news doesnt matter the market tells u question garry hi terry they bought wheat sold beans yesterday when does one let go of the front month when watching the spreads? hi gary, mark and that is exactly how the report came in dont follow the news watch the action yes don go ahead 1 r sorry gary when does one let go of the front month when watching the spreads what do u mean if u think the market is going lower sell the long end of the pread deliever process is a different game spread User [mike /24.7.3.63] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 22:10:48 EST 2001 if it breaks support get out of the long side IE: jan beans if you were long jan? just watching the spread action, now i'm watching march/july ,should i pay attention to jan? for example on the opening today u could have sold jan No dont look at jan that is the cash month look at march may july nov I watch jan thjis tells me what the cash is actually doing but I dont think u should trade it But when should i stop watching the front, when it goes into delievery? I dont think u should ever stop watching the delievery month I think u should watch it till it goes off the board it is important to watch it imho goodnight if cash is strady and th back months are down sharply because of the cash side? this means something Night Mike spread wise night mike User [mike] left forum on Thu Jan 11 22:16:56 EST 2001 yes tightness don ok tks means lots of specaultion by selling the back months u need to watch the realtionships between the months that makes today even more bullish based on jan that is why I think it is a shakeout great observation agree, as i said i added to a looser I think the market is not ready to go stright up though I think it will trade sideways for awhile bulding cause before it goes higher next month as long as we are talking monthly speads...... that si great that you are watching the jan if u look at the monthly charts that I sent last night feb and april hogs we longer term have done nothing wrong pork belleies went to creek yesterday feb looked so much weaker than april.... and reacted well yesterday yes it did amrk mark sorry no prob why so ? the most bullish meat is the cattle market I think people are rolling their longs from feb to april the prob I always have with a market doing what cattle is doing, is that i think the reverse will be as sudden as the rally the trend is very strong up I see 82 as ressiatnce retrace before then? between now and 82? I am prob going to watch this from sidelines anyway it could but why be short in a strong uptrend or trade with very close stops anyway So with cattle is it a case of "let them eat steak" :):) would never short this market U should Buy support :) zack there ya go zack in winter the tend tends to be up Sorry Mark--couldn't help myself :) cows dont like the could no prob zack:) I see nothing cliamtic in cattle yes, but a major high is coming is next week with winter and weaker grains warmer and less stormy the cm loves this for a bull Surely you are not playing the weahter Mark ???? high pressure zone I mean why do u say this mark? do u think weather is making cattle go higher? what else is? not that i think that is the only factor User [subra /203.48.5.170] joined forum on Thu Jan 11 22:29:34 EST 2001 cattle has accumaulted well before the weather was any factor yes it has the charts told u long before this weather User [subra] left forum on Thu Jan 11 22:29:58 EST 2001 3 phase uplift weather is making the market go up faster by specs shalow, med, and steep hi subra as we talked about several weeks ago NO FUNDAMENTALS to wyckoff they have had a frost in florida right? yes why hasnt OJ gone up supply lots of supply smae as grains ahhh demadn and supply same I mean one of the principles of wyckoff all Bullmarkets start from a lot of supply