User [gary fullett /24.240.192.12] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:06:52 EST 2000
User [Bonz /24.128.226.99] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:06:52 EST 2000
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
<Bonz> Hi gang
<gary fullett> I just walked in the office so please give me a few minutes okay
<Bonz> Hey Gary
<Jairo> hi
User [Zack /208.26.140.160] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:09:43 EST 2000
<Zack> Hi all
<Bonz> hey zack
<gary fullett> im sorry.. I am back
<gary fullett> how is everyone tonight?
<Jairo> ready to go
<gary fullett> Great
<gary fullett> before I finsih the charts
<gary fullett> are there any questions?
User [Terry W /64.197.237.31] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:12:58 EST 2000
<Terry W> hello, what did I miss?
<gary fullett> nothing yet terry
<gary fullett> was just asking if anyone had any questions
<Terry W> good
<gary fullett> okay I did want to mention the stock amrket today
<gary fullett> the market was higher today
<gary fullett> this to me wasnt really demand
<gary fullett> but a continuation of the autpmatic rally that we have seen
User [Capt. /24.95.192.121] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:15:15 EST 2000
<gary fullett> over the past few days
<Zack> Hey Capt.--good to see yu :)
<Capt.> Hi all
<Zack> Looked like volume on the 100 was low today Gary
<gary fullett> it was
<gary fullett> and that is why it was part of the Ar
<gary fullett> the volume was light
<gary fullett> this wasnt demand but short covering
<gary fullett> hey capt
<gary fullett> so to me maybe we retest the 2800 area
<gary fullett> and fail
<gary fullett> and go into the SC
<gary fullett> but it will allow some longs to get out with profit
<gary fullett> zack that is a great observation
<gary fullett> in a amrket that is weak
<gary fullett> the volume will be lighter on the rallies
<gary fullett> and this is what u r seeing
<gary fullett> heavier volume breaks
<gary fullett> and lighter volume rallies
<gary fullett> this shows supply or selling is coming into the market
<gary fullett> so even thought the market loooked bullish today
<gary fullett> perception wise
<gary fullett> but it is still negative overall
<Terry W> did you say 2800 to retest?
<gary fullett> that is my target upside terry correct
<gary fullett> I think we can rally abit mor
<Terry W> can you tell us why?
<gary fullett> more
<gary fullett> probably tomorrow and friday for the New yr
<gary fullett> I think that is resiatance
<Zack> If that 2500 area holds tomorrow, I think we will see an SC before it goes up again
<gary fullett> we havent done alot of cause to go much beyond that IMHO at this point
<gary fullett> my feeling we rally into the new yr
<gary fullett> to discourage shorts
<gary fullett> then break hard in Jan
<Bonz>
<gary fullett> but one never know
<gary fullett> if we will rally to 2800 then go into a SC
<gary fullett> or we can go into it from here as well
<gary fullett> I would watch volume
<gary fullett> and if heavier on the break we will prob go into a seliing climax'
<Terry W> I still don't understand the resistance levels
<gary fullett> terry the nasdaq went to 2200 area
<gary fullett> the ice area is about 3400 area
<gary fullett> so half way back is about 2800
<gary fullett> also
<gary fullett> the first low
<gary fullett> we went to in oct
<gary fullett> was about 2800 area
<gary fullett> it was the new low at the time of the nasdaq
<gary fullett> then it went above 3k
<gary fullett> then broke to 2500
<gary fullett> do u see those areas terry?
<Terry W> yes
User [mike /24.7.3.63] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:27:34 EST 2000
<Capt.>
<Terry W> I see said the blind man
<Zack> Lower lows and lower highs--isn't that the classical def. of a downtrend?
<gary fullett> u should change your name to Stevie wonder terry :)lol
<gary fullett> yes sir zack
<gary fullett> we are in a downtrend in the nasdaq
<Terry W> this is why I trade mechanical
<Zack> So that would be another reason not to expect the next rally to go above 2800
<Zack> If there is one
<gary fullett> agree zack
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> I understand terry
<gary fullett> u dont have to be so accurate that way
<gary fullett> just pick direction over time
<gary fullett> questions on the stock market
<gary fullett> the nasdaq is weaker than the dow
<gary fullett> the dow ISNT in a downtrend
<gary fullett> the nasdaq is
<gary fullett> they are differnt markets
<Terry W> what about sp?
<Zack> I think the money flow is moving out of the Nasduck into the Dow and other quality stocks
<Bonz> Agree
<Zack> I don't think the general public is moving into cash
<gary fullett> the s and p can rally to the 1412
<gary fullett> area
<Zack> Too much of a mind set in stocks with a ten year bull market
<gary fullett> agree zak it has been that way since
<gary fullett> march last yr
<gary fullett> when the nasdaq topped out
<gary fullett> old economy vs new ecomnomy
<gary fullett> I bet this yr super bowl u wont see alot of dot coms advertising
<gary fullett> like last yr
<gary fullett> I bet it will be old name companies
<gary fullett> u dont see many IPO's anymore
<mike> Gary how you get 1412on S&P 500
<Bonz> To much supply for IPO's
User [Scrooge McDuck /208.26.139.189] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:37:13 EST 2000
User [Scrooge McDuck] left forum on Wed Dec 27 21:37:22 EST 2000
User [Zack /208.26.139.189] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:37:28 EST 2000
<Terry W> ice right?
<Capt.> I didn't do it zack
<gary fullett> decemeber 11 high was 1412 mike
<gary fullett> correct bonz
<gary fullett> monthly high
<gary fullett> I dont make up numbers :)
<mike> 1388
<gary fullett> what is 1388?
User [Scrooge McDuck /208.26.128.8] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:39:42 EST 2000
<mike> Dec. 11 hi
<Terry W> ndx high
<Terry W> not futures
<gary fullett> mike do u do charts?
<Scrooge McDuck> Sorry gang--which chart please?
<Terry W> spx I mean
<gary fullett> I was just talking s and P zack
<gary fullett> spx cash high was what terry?
<gary fullett> I dont have it in front of me
<Scrooge McDuck> tks
<mike> I have chart S&P 500 in front of me
<Terry W> 1389.1
<gary fullett> thanx terry
<gary fullett> the futures high was 141225 on decemeber 11 in thr march contract
<Terry W> on 12-11
<Bonz> Got to run. I'll catch you on the archive. Good nite all........
<gary fullett> night bonz
<Scrooge McDuck> nite Bonz
<Bonz> Got to run. I'll catch you on the archive. Good nite all........
User [Bonz] left forum on Wed Dec 27 21:43:26 EST 2000
<gary fullett> thanx terry didnt watch the cash
<mike> regular chart showing 1388
<gary fullett> I have the futures at 141225 as the high for the month
<gary fullett> which chart Mike?
<mike> SPX
<gary fullett> Mike I am referring to march s and P
<gary fullett> the high was at 141225 for the month
<mike> ahhh
<gary fullett> U dont chart the futures mike?
<gary fullett> any other questions on the stock market
<mike> n
<gary fullett> U have 1388 and terry has 1389.1
<gary fullett> Iso if that is the high for the month
<Scrooge McDuck> Mike. if you don't enter in futures, why are you attending a futures commodity class?
<gary fullett> then that would be resisatnce
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> lets talk OJ
<mike> I follow Wyckoff method
<gary fullett> I sent this chart several
<gary fullett> times over the past month or so
User [Jairo /216.192.116.8] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:52:28 EST 2000
<Capt.>
<Jairo>
<Terry W>
<Scrooge McDuck> Hey Capt.--you scare him off again?
User [Scrooge McDuck] left forum on Wed Dec 27 21:56:01 EST 2000
User [Zack /208.26.128.8] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 21:56:09 EST 2000
<Capt.> must have and Zack is acting a little skitish tonight as well
<mike> goodnight
User [mike] left forum on Wed Dec 27 21:57:38 EST 2000
<Capt.> I have kept quiet and still get in trouble :)
<Zack> I guess Gary went out for a glass of OJ (maybe mixed with a little Vodka ) :)
<Capt.> Zack went out and sat on that hard water today:0
<Zack> Nice and balmy here Capr--around the 50 mark today :)
<Capt.> we had 10 degrees and 15 mph winds with snow ..ice fishing was brrr!!!
<Zack> Wow--think I'll stay here
<Zack> When you coming over for that wild turkey hunt Capt.--can't seem to get rid of them stupid birds:)
User [Terry W /64.197.237.26] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:03:59 EST 2000
<Capt.> you are killing me!
<Zack> lol
<Zack> Are you doing any spreads Capt.?
<Zack> I have a March/May wheat spread on for now
<Capt.> not really, got a few things i want to do before i take them on as a regula part of my trading planr
User [gary fullett /24.240.192.12] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:08:19 EST 2000
<Capt.> have to get a few things down with my programs and such time to study is my biggest problem
<gary fullett> Im sorry had to reboot
<Zack> Welcome back teach :)
<gary fullett> darn computers :)
<gary fullett> I have labeled the charts
<gary fullett> so if u have any questions please let me know
<gary fullett> I want to talk on spreads
<gary fullett> before I begin on spreads are there questiosn first on spreads
User [gtb /216.228.37.94] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:11:33 EST 2000
<Zack> Hey gtb--welcome
<gtb> hi all
<gary fullett> I want to point something out to you
<gary fullett> if u have live time quotes
<gary fullett> the backs months doent trade like the front months
<gary fullett> so it may appear that a spread is trading at an area
<gary fullett> that is isnt in the pit
<gary fullett> so be careful
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> as I mentioned previous
<gary fullett> markets are genrally higher priced
<gary fullett> the further you go out in time
User [Jairo /216.192.116.8] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:14:35 EST 2000
<gary fullett> and the reason for this is carrying charges
<gary fullett> the cost of interest rates
<gary fullett> trasportation
<gary fullett> so if you want to have a bull spread generally u will buy the front months vs the back months
<gary fullett> this will genrally be effective if the market rallies
<gary fullett> so if you are bullish wheat for example you would buy march and sell may
<gary fullett> please dont think that a month is "cheap"
<gary fullett> or it is expensive
<gary fullett> it i priced fairly
<gary fullett> and the market is orderly
<gary fullett> if the prices get too far out of line
<gary fullett> the spreaders
<gary fullett> will put it back in line
<gary fullett> or the aribitraguers will
<Zack> I noticed that today Wheat went down but the spread stayed the same--that's a good case for a bull confirmation isn't it Gary?
<gary fullett> yes it is zack
<gary fullett> if u have a bull spread on
<gary fullett> and the market breaks
<gary fullett> this means that someone is supporting the spread
<gary fullett> it should have lost
<gary fullett> an example today on the opposite side was sugar
<gary fullett> marsh was up 26 may was up 31
<gary fullett> this to me was negative spreading
<gary fullett> and a waring to th bulls
<gary fullett> if the market rallies and the bull spreads dont work
<gary fullett> this is a warning
<gary fullett> and generally is a tip off to other CMs
<gary fullett> that the move may be ending
<gary fullett> do you understand this?
<Terry W> yes
<gary fullett> good
<gary fullett> it would be like the dow up
<gary fullett> transports down to a Dow thoerists
<gary fullett> when u have a contradiction this is a warning by the CM
<gary fullett> so when in a spread watch for these signs
<gary fullett> also watch...
<gary fullett> spreads in which the strongest comodity becomes the wekest
<gary fullett> like soymeal vs bean oil
User [Zack /208.26.139.183] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:23:32 EST 2000
<gary fullett> in the soy complex
<gary fullett> when spreads that work very well for a long time
<gary fullett> then weaken
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> this is a warnign sign
<gary fullett> the cm supports his postion
<Zack> Dang--every time I use this old computer I have trouble wiht my ISP
<gary fullett> and if long meal vs oil
<gary fullett> he will support meal when ever he can
<gary fullett> pay the bill zack
<Zack> I thought Kelly paid it :)
<gary fullett> send it to her she will :)
<Zack> lol
<Zack>
<gary fullett> if meal becomes the wekest and the cm bails
<gary fullett> it will be vicious
<gary fullett> a market that is a great spreading market is the curriencies
<gary fullett> epecailly
<gary fullett> the yen vs any of the europeans
<gary fullett> it is used by banks
<gary fullett> and when banks are in a spread like that
<gary fullett> they trend for a while generally
<Zack> What would the margin be on a Yen/BP spread Gary?
<gary fullett> spreads margin in currencies
<Jairo>
<gary fullett> is generally the higher of the 2 indivudaul curreicnes
<gary fullett> so it would be about 2800
<Zack> tks
<gary fullett> spreads move in the curreincies
<gary fullett> I will leave the rest of the time to questions
<gary fullett> about markets wyckoff or in general
<gary fullett> Iwont have a class tomorrow night as the holiday is approcahing
<gary fullett> give everyone a day off tomorrow :)
<gary fullett> I am open to an open forum now
<gary fullett> and questions comments
User [joe k /172.170.245.142] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:33:34 EST 2000
<gary fullett> I will be a guest on INO forum
<gary fullett> on Jan 14
<gary fullett> sunday
User [Capt. /24.95.192.121] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:33:41 EST 2000
<Zack> Hey Joe kkk
<Jairo> what's INO forum?
<gary fullett> hey Joe
<joe k> hey Wyckoffites
<gary fullett> ino is a post forum
<Terry W> do you create a spread by simple subtraction?
<gary fullett> it is a great forum
<gary fullett> INO.com jairo
<gary fullett> hey Joe what do u know
<joe k> you mean traders post there ? lol
<Zack> Glad for that Gary--time they got the real lowdown on Wykoff
<Jairo> thanks
<gary fullett> yes terry
<gary fullett> take the 2 individauls prices
<gary fullett> subtract one from the other and it will give u a spread number
<gary fullett> well I wanted to clear up some misconceptions
<gary fullett> so if beans are at 520 in march
<gary fullett> and 525 in may the spread is 5 cents
<gary fullett> see terry?
<Terry W> yes
<Terry W> what about intermarket spreads with very different prices?
User [gtb /216.228.37.94] joined forum on Wed Dec 27 22:37:46 EST 2000
<gary fullett> so that is how u figure out the spread
<gary fullett> u can do this with all markets
<gary fullett> hogs vs bellies
<gary fullett> cattle vs hogs
<gary fullett> just subtract the number from on another for the spread quote
<Terry W> too simple, got to be something wrong here
<gary fullett> why is that terry
<Terry W> one market could have a big move with 5 cents
<Terry W> another with 5 dollars
<joe k> Because most action is in the front months
<gary fullett> in meats terry?
<gary fullett> or in general?
<Zack> Sure Terry--Siver / Gold would be an example
<Terry W> yes zack
<gary fullett> silver was down gold was up
<Zack> But 2 cents in siver is $100 vrs 1.00 move in Gold for $100
<gary fullett> spreads can moe as well
<gary fullett> move
<Zack> Yes Garry--just trying to show Terry how a commodity in cents can be spread with one in dollars
<gary fullett> spreads generally move orderly
<gary fullett> but sometimes they can move alot
<gary fullett> a market where spreads are moving alot is the energies
<gary fullett> watch the bonds vs the 10 yr notes
<gary fullett> over the next few weeks
<gary fullett> with a pending interest rate cut
<gary fullett> this spread will probably move
<gary fullett> the 10 yr should do better than the 30 yr boond
<gary fullett> because shorter term rates are more effective than longer term
<gary fullett> well if there are no other questions I will wish u all a very happy New yr
<gary fullett> and I will see u next tuesday
<gary fullett> have a great holiday be safe
<gary fullett> good night everyone
User [gary fullett] left forum on Wed Dec 27 22:53:13 EST 2000