User [gary fullett /152.175.131.0] joined forum on Wed Jul 26 20:59:12 EDT 2000
<Joe K> hey everyone
<Mark> hi mike
<Mark> good trading day?
<gary fullett> good evening everyone sorry I am late
<Mark> hi
<Joe K> move over, make room ! lol
<Mike> Hello
<Joe K> hey mike !
<Mike> Glad I finally made it, thanks again joe
<gary fullett> okay I want to go over some wyckoff principles tonight then the rest of the charts
<gary fullett> welcome mike
<Mike> Hello
<Zack> Welcome Mike
<gary fullett> please ask any all all questions
<gary fullett> that goes for everyone :)
User [chris /63.29.29.24] joined forum on Wed Jul 26 21:00:53 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> first before i begin any questions?
<gary fullett> have u all gone thru the wyckoff wave on the site?
<chris> hi everyone
<Mark> no
<Mark> how does one find it?
<Joe K> hi chris
<gary fullett> it is on the wesite
<Zack> Gary, Gold had an inside day today but I don't have volume. Do you know?
<gary fullett> under archives I believe
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> yes I do zack
<Joe K> Mike, when we get going, if you dont say anything for awhile, at least click enter every so often
<Mike> k
<gary fullett> 26 k
<Joe K> otherwise ya might get booted off
<gary fullett> have u read the glossary?
<Zack> Thanks
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> my pleasure No extra charge :)
<Mark> be right back, 2 min
<Mike> yes, and I've been reading the archives and studying charts
<Mark> please do not wait though
<gary fullett> I want to take u thru the wyckoff wave
<gary fullett> if u doiont mind
<gary fullett> or is that a waste of your time?
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> I will take a democratic vote
<gary fullett> from bull to bear then back to bull
<Zack> Go for it :)
<gary fullett> 1 for yes 2 for no
<Joe K> dont mind if it helps everyone else
<Mike> 1
<gary fullett> thats 1
<gary fullett> who else
<chris> 1
<gary fullett> thats 2
<gary fullett> need more 1 or 2 ?
<Joe K> go for it
<nagual> ok
<gary fullett> okay i will take u thru the wave
<gary fullett> then we can talk
<gary fullett> u can find the wave on the site
<Mike> I mainly have a couple questions about the importance of the days range at support
<gary fullett> so listen here if u dont have the wave then go get it
<gary fullett> I will explain the Whole wyckodd wave
<gary fullett> so u will know when I post what the heck I mean
<gary fullett> mike please ask
<gary fullett> questions first
User [chris] left forum on Wed Jul 26 21:06:48 EDT 2000
<Mark>
<gary fullett> mike please ask now
<Mike> Big range high volume means bear, how about small range large valume
<Mike> at support
<gary fullett> woa
<gary fullett> cant generilize like that
User [Tom /172.162.42.220] joined forum on Wed Jul 26 21:08:07 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> it depends on the trend
<Zack>
<gary fullett> it depends on the bounce off support
<Mike> I thougth when it comes down to retest and theres high volume and a big range its bearish
<gary fullett> it depneds on many factors
User [chris /63.29.29.24] joined forum on Wed Jul 26 21:08:31 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> sometimes is can be bulloish and sometimes bearish
<Mike> Sure, I'll just listen for a while then
<gary fullett> well mike I have a q
<Mike> k
<gary fullett> if u have largee volume wide range
<gary fullett> like cofffee on monay
<gary fullett> monday
<gary fullett> I am not drunk i type terrible
<Mike> me too
<gary fullett> i know how to spell but cant type
<gary fullett> this action on monday in coffee was bullish
<Zack> I can' do either :)
<gary fullett> mike
<gary fullett> I will explain that q
<Mike> is that because it went up from open
<gary fullett> but it will take many differnt cases
<gary fullett> to explain
<gary fullett> and it is easier to explain
<gary fullett> when I have a but 30 minutes
<gary fullett> let me do the wave
<gary fullett> and then I will explain
<gary fullett> okay
<Mike> sure, sorry to take all the time
<gary fullett> becasue I can inclunde this in the wave discussion
<gary fullett> No mike
<gary fullett> take all the time u need
<gary fullett> the questio will help everyone
<Mike> thanks
<gary fullett> but I can help u more by going over the ave
<gary fullett> and explain fully
<gary fullett> for u
<gary fullett> please ask it is a great question
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<Mark>
<Mark> not yet
<gary fullett> mike a short answer it can be both bullish or bearish
<gary fullett> k
<Mike> ok, I'll just listen and learn
<gary fullett> let me do the wave and include mikes answer
<gary fullett> i will explain I promise
<gary fullett> what is the trend in most markets?
<nagual>
<Joe K> a direction
<Joe K> of market price
<Zack> Sideways
<Joe K> established direction, a continual one
<gary fullett> generally sideways
<gary fullett> but it depends onn your point of reference
<gary fullett> daily couldbe differnt then weekly
<gary fullett> weekly differnt from monthly ect.
<gary fullett> okay?
<Zack> k
<Mark> ok
<Mike> yes
<nagual>
<Joe K>
<Tom> k
<gary fullett> now lets say
<gary fullett> that we had a buying climax
<gary fullett> a buying climax is the point in which the market is an uptrend
<gary fullett> bc for short
<gary fullett> it could be a BC on a daily weekly monthly or intraday
<gary fullett> the most significant is the Monthly
<gary fullett> do u know why/
<Mike> N
<Mark> ?
<nagual> significant rewsistance
<gary fullett> bedcause it can only happen once a month
<gary fullett> u Only chart a monthly chart 1 time a month
<Mark> yes, but in what time frame?
<gary fullett> on a monthly chart
<Mark> avg/?
<gary fullett> U can only plot it once a month
<gary fullett> high low close with volume
<gary fullett> on a chart
<gary fullett> no average
<Mark> got it
<Mark> duhhhhh
<gary fullett> lets say beans high 500 low 450
<gary fullett> volume 2 million
<gary fullett> u plot that on a monthly
<Mark> got it
<gary fullett> that is okay mark
<gary fullett> please ask
<gary fullett> important to know the wave
<Mark> still waking from my nap i hope
<gary fullett> a daily is plotted every day
<gary fullett> a 5 min chart every 5 min
<Mark> i printed it a few mintes ago
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> so the longer the time frame the more significance
<gary fullett> so we had a bc
<gary fullett> it is generaly charaterized
<gary fullett> by heavy volume
<gary fullett> large price action
<gary fullett> this is the point where the "news" is very bullish
<gary fullett> and everyone in the world is bullish
<gary fullett> and greed is taking over
<gary fullett> like gold at 800
<gary fullett> okay so far
<Mike> Y
<nagual>
<Zack> k
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> news is inflation running rampart shortages of gold
<Tom> k
<gary fullett> demand high
<gary fullett> No bearish news in site
<gary fullett> the public is long
<gary fullett> the funds are long
<gary fullett> who to u think is selling?
<Mike> CM
<nagual> cm
<Zack> CM
<Mark> someone in the know
<gary fullett> correct
<gary fullett> good
<gary fullett> the market finds some resistance
<gary fullett> and closes under mid range
<gary fullett> lets take a daily chart okay
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> so at this time the market encoutered some supply or selling
<gary fullett> but still acts good
<chris>
<gary fullett> news is still bullish
<Zack> sow?
<gary fullett> the next day the market breaks volume is heavy
<gary fullett> but not as heavy from the day before
<gary fullett> I am getting htere zack
<gary fullett> many sow
<gary fullett> the market breasks to support
<gary fullett> and giess what the public does?
<Joe K> panics
<Mike> buys more
<gary fullett> mike I am answering your questions as we go on okay
<Mike> yes
<gary fullett> the public being in a bull market
<gary fullett> is conditioned to buy the news is bullish
<gary fullett> the people who bought the BC
<gary fullett> weak longs get stopped out
<gary fullett> and new longs buy support
<gary fullett> following the tend they buy
<gary fullett> trend
<gary fullett> so the volume is heavy
<gary fullett> but not climatic heavy like the day before
<gary fullett> see mike :)
<Mike> yes
<gary fullett> this high volume on the down is casue by the cm
<gary fullett> this is bearish volime
<gary fullett> then the public buys
<gary fullett> and what happens?
<gary fullett> the market begind to rally
<gary fullett> begins to rally
<Mark> secondary?
<gary fullett> Im getting there amrk
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> mrk
<gary fullett> sorry
<gary fullett> the rally is on light volume why?
<Mike> only public buys
<gary fullett> RIGHT
<gary fullett> the cm sees the BC
<gary fullett> and know time is over for the bulls
<gary fullett> he doesnt buy rallies and lets the public the funds
<gary fullett> and jonny come lately buy
<gary fullett> without the cm 's volume
<gary fullett> can the volume be high
<gary fullett> ?
<gary fullett> not really
<Zack> n
<gary fullett> so the market rallies
<Mark> wouldn't think so
<Mike> but the range can be wide right?
<gary fullett> the market will retest the high
<Mike> Or small
<gary fullett> fall short of the high or go past the high
<gary fullett> one never knows
<gary fullett> but if the vlume is light
<gary fullett> the market isnt attractin new buyers
<gary fullett> the cm sees this and know all the longs are staurated
<gary fullett> and cant push it much higher
<gary fullett> generally small mike
<nagual> no gas
<Mike> HmmOK
<gary fullett> it can be wider
<gary fullett> but volume is lighter
<Mike> k
<gary fullett> right nagual
<gary fullett> how do u know if the market will make a new high or not?
<nagual> high volume
<gary fullett> answer
<gary fullett> u dont
<gary fullett> could be nagual
<Mark> no way to know
<gary fullett> likcrude
<gary fullett> it ddint make a new high but Unleaded did
<gary fullett> right mark
<gary fullett> but with exp
<gary fullett> u can see the days action and arrow it down
<gary fullett> and get better entry to sell
<gary fullett> to limit the risk
<gary fullett> so to review
<gary fullett> we had a BC
<gary fullett> then a break
<gary fullett> this is the first sign of trouble
<gary fullett> then a retest generally on lighter volume
<gary fullett> and smaller price action
<gary fullett> it can b e on wider ranges
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> but that is wyckoff 102 :)
<gary fullett> I will go over this one day
<nagual>
<Mike> OK
<gary fullett> I am talking classical wyckoff
<gary fullett> not the Punk rock stuff :)
<gary fullett> or Rap stuff :)lol
<Zack>
<gary fullett> sorry bad joke
<nagual> need susan!lol!
<Mike> I'll sneek a peak @ the punk stuff when all my books get in from amazon
<gary fullett> the volumeon the BC is 20 k
<gary fullett> then the pullback is at 17 k
<gary fullett> volume is relative to the area that it is in
<gary fullett> then a retest of the highs is 14 k
<gary fullett> still high but not as high as the preceeding days
<gary fullett> so far so good? quesitons?
<Zack> n
<Mike> Great so far
<gary fullett> K
<gary fullett> then what happens after the retest?
<Joe K> all she wrote
<gary fullett> what is the Cm doing on that llight volume rally?
<Mark> ok
<Mike> selling
<gary fullett> I mentioned the cm sells rallies
<gary fullett> so he sells
<Joe K> geting ready to sell it off
<gary fullett> he sells at great prices
<Joe K> lol
<Mark> starts the bear market
<gary fullett> why because the public wants to be long
<gary fullett> the news is bullish
<Mark> so its easy to sell
<gary fullett> the newspapers and susan are long :)
<gary fullett> and bulish
<Joe K> lol
<Zack> lol
<gary fullett> right mark
<gary fullett> he gets his price
<gary fullett> then what ater the retest
<gary fullett> of the BC
<Mike> ?
<gary fullett> the market will develop a trading range
<gary fullett> the news is still bullish
<Mark> that will decrease?
<gary fullett> so the CM cant go against it yet
<Mark> range that is?
<gary fullett> YES
<Joe K> If I was a CM, why wouldnt I just take it higher then, and sell at a better price ?
<gary fullett> oh the range
<gary fullett> not necessarily
<Zack> Needs to distribut rest of longs?
<gary fullett> the bullish news will decrease
<gary fullett> the public is not patient and will get out and the volume decrease
<gary fullett> right zack
<gary fullett> if u can yes Joe
<gary fullett> but not all the time will the public pump it up that high
<gary fullett> if volume dries up demand dries up
<gary fullett> it cant go much
<gary fullett> higher loeses steam
<Joe K> so he gets em when he knows he can
<gary fullett> so the market develpos a arnge
<gary fullett> range
<gary fullett> between the BC
<gary fullett> and support
<gary fullett> the cm will sell the top of the range
<gary fullett> lets say 100 contracts
<gary fullett> and within that range will buy the boottom of it
<gary fullett> about 50 contracts
<gary fullett> so he is net short 50
<gary fullett> this is caled distribution
<gary fullett> or selling or supply
<gary fullett> he is preparing for an eventaul down Move
<gary fullett> how long will he distribute?
<Mark> until a trend reversal?
<Zack> As long as he can keep the price range up while ge loads up with shorts
<Mike> Who Knows
<nagual>
<gary fullett> as long as the news is very bullish he will keep it in the range
User [Tom /172.162.42.220] joined forum on Wed Jul 26 21:45:16 EDT 2000
<Joe K> until he finds demand again
<gary fullett> but once the market loses bullish in his eyes
<gary fullett> not in out eyes
<gary fullett> our
<gary fullett> one never knows how long he will distribute
<gary fullett> but we can get n idea
<gary fullett> by watching volume and price action
<gary fullett> with exp
<chris>
<gary fullett> but that is anopther days discussion
<nagual> COT will let me know
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> I am talking ideally at this point for foundation
<gary fullett> COsusan T
<Zack> Just ask Susan
<gary fullett> hthe cm breaks
<gary fullett> the support
<gary fullett> this called a break of the Ice
<gary fullett> and a SIGN OF WEAKNESS
<gary fullett> or sow
<nagual> so who broke support on coffee at 9600?
<gary fullett> it is at this point selld stps are hit and the cm is about to mark down prices
<gary fullett> and the news will soon become less bullish
<gary fullett> wyckoff principles
<gary fullett> cause vs effect
<gary fullett> longer the range
<gary fullett> (cause)
<Mark>
<gary fullett> the larger the move effect
<gary fullett> great quesrion nagual
<gary fullett> I dont know his name :)
<Zack> lol
<gary fullett> I think that the cm saw the market was in trouble
<gary fullett> and let the market do uits thing
<gary fullett> and he didnt support it at that level
<gary fullett> but he will at monthly support at the low 80 area
<Mark> no incentive to?
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> well it would be costly too
<gary fullett> and he could get lower prices so he let the bids dry up
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> and he bought at 8500
<gary fullett> better at 8500
<gary fullett> if the sentiment is bearish than 9600
<gary fullett> he backed away
<gary fullett> please note in coffee the cm bough in the mid 80 's
<gary fullett> before we went to 122
<gary fullett> so what does he care
<gary fullett> if he buys at 85 again on the retest
<Mike>
<gary fullett> he lost NO money
<gary fullett> and sold some near 120
<gary fullett> does that help nagaul?
<gary fullett> to us
<nagual> y
<Joe K>
<Zack>
<gary fullett> 1000 points is alot to the cm who has time and money no biggy
<gary fullett> but he defended his original positon at 8500 so far didnt he nagual?
<gary fullett> he like cheap prices :)
<nagual> y
<Tom>
<gary fullett> he defend when he has to a good prices
<gary fullett> he say the bearishness and stepped away
<gary fullett> till it went back to his original buy
<nagual> saw
<gary fullett> and he bought
<gary fullett> so we broke thru the ice
<gary fullett> no the public is losong money
<nagual> several ices
<Mark> also knowing the public will now support a bull market?
<gary fullett> and the cm is short from distribution
<gary fullett> right nagaul there area
<gary fullett> are
<gary fullett> yes mark
<gary fullett> easy to sell in a bear market
<Mark> and creat momentum?
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> to a tech trader expect wyckoff
<gary fullett> when the BC happened
<gary fullett> the trend is
<gary fullett> going to reverse at some point
<gary fullett> after distribution
<gary fullett> even though the market still made higher highs and lower lows
<gary fullett> this is a tip that the bull is DEAD
<gary fullett> so we broke thru the ice
<gary fullett> before breaking the ice
<gary fullett> the public and funds are LONG
<gary fullett> after the break thru the ice
<gary fullett> the news becomes less bullish
<gary fullett> when it goes thru a certian support
<gary fullett> funds sell
<gary fullett> based on a model
<gary fullett> so they are Not short but just puking longs
<gary fullett> the public is still long\
<gary fullett> waiting for new highs
<gary fullett> that never come
<gary fullett> so far so good
<gary fullett> ?
<Mike> y
<Mark> yes
<nagual>
<Tom> y
<Zack> y
<gary fullett> Important stuff folks
<gary fullett> backbone to wyckoff
<gary fullett> the volume is the effort
<gary fullett> and the price action is the result
<nagual> is that the wave stuff?
<gary fullett> 3 PRINCIPLES of Wyckoff
<gary fullett> 1)
<gary fullett> effort vs result
<gary fullett> 2) cause vxs effect
<gary fullett>
<gary fullett> demand vs SUpply
<gary fullett> it is a wyckoff wave yes nagual
<gary fullett> 3 is deand vs supply
<Mike> So if price action is small and volume huge
<gary fullett> THIS CANT BE ARGUED
<Mike> CM put a lot of effort to keep it there
<gary fullett> this is a principle in Nature
<gary fullett> yes mike
<gary fullett> No one can argue this
<gary fullett> it is not a theory
<gary fullett> it isnt even wyckoff per sai
<gary fullett> it occurs all arund us
<Mark> small price acton and large volume is distribution?
<gary fullett> it is wyckoff from the point that he uses the principles
<gary fullett> when Mark?
<gary fullett> these are all good quesritions
<Mark> near transitions?
<gary fullett> but at certain times have differnt answers
<gary fullett> sometimes mark
<Mark> or trend reversal?
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> dont mean to be evasive
<gary fullett> but it depends
<gary fullett> I will discuss as we go further into wyckoff
<Mark> i know
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> wyckoff is a way to look at markets
<gary fullett> the way the market behave
<gary fullett> it is juging market action by its behavior
<gary fullett> using price and volume
<Mark> someone mentioned the COT a few minutes ago,
<gary fullett> yes it is subjective and hard work
<gary fullett> and most people dont like hard work
<Mark> lol, very true
<gary fullett> I sleep on a Cot
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> many pople want 1-900 give me a trade
<Mark> it seems it would have to be
<Mark> yes, lol
<gary fullett> wyckoff is not that
<gary fullett> if u want that u r in the wrong room
<gary fullett> go see Ken robets
<Mark> ?
<Zack> lol
<gary fullett> people shy away fom wyckoff because it works
<gary fullett> and it is alot of work
<Mark> whats wrong wit that?
<gary fullett> and people dont want to deote the time and effort
<Mike> thats the fun of it
<nagual> significant hihs cm is net short and sign lows is long.Why is that?
<Mark> hanging drywall is hard work
<gary fullett> with what marke>?
<gary fullett> Yes mark
<Mark> looking at info is fun
<gary fullett> builing decks too
<Mark> i did that too for a summer
<gary fullett> I agree 110 percent mark
<gary fullett> just completed one yiks
<gary fullett> that is why 400 people get the log and not to class
<nagual> i've done that too
<Mark> happy to be finished?
<gary fullett> YES
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> Im a bettrer trader though :)lol
<gary fullett> so if u learn wyckoff i belive u will be rewarded
<gary fullett> so we broke thru the ice
<Mark> I'm still better with a hammer
<Mark> but in transition i hope
<gary fullett> and we then break to the next support
<gary fullett> I willhelp u with the trading art mark :)lol
<gary fullett> and u help me with a hammer :)
<Mark> hope so :)
<Mark> no prob there
<gary fullett> so the volume
<gary fullett> on the break thru the ice is heavy
<gary fullett> it is supply
<gary fullett> coming in
<gary fullett> and the sells stops being hit
<gary fullett> if the market went to the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> and volume heavy
<gary fullett> with price action
<gary fullett> this may mean that the
User [chris /63.29.29.24] joined forum on Wed Jul 26 22:07:42 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> market is holiding support
<gary fullett> and not ready to break
<gary fullett> and may retest the high of the range
<gary fullett> see that mike
<Mike> Y
<Mark> makes sense
<gary fullett> so heavy volume on a break can be bullish
<gary fullett> in the range or bearish
<gary fullett> depends on the action
<gary fullett> of price
<Mike> And if price range small?
<gary fullett> see I promised to answer u :)
<gary fullett> at the bottom of the range mark?
<Mike> Y
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> what is volume mark?
<gary fullett> high or low?
<Mark> low
User [Tom] left forum on Wed Jul 26 22:09:27 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> this means that supply isnt
<gary fullett> enetering the market
<gary fullett> but if id doesnt rally from support
<gary fullett> with good oomph
<gary fullett> it will break thru the ice
<gary fullett> but the volume will have to increase on the break
<gary fullett> or it will snap back
<Mark> yes
<Mark> is that why beans came back down?
<Mark> actually
<gary fullett> so the market breaks
<gary fullett> thu the ice
<Mark> that makes sense for two resaons
<gary fullett> and goes to the next support
<gary fullett> yes reistance at 474
<Mark> gives cm a re-set to buy in
<Zack> What about high volume, narrow price at support?
<gary fullett> yes on a retest
<Mike> Yes!
<gary fullett> on a arnge zack?
<Mark> and gets the publicthinking short again
<gary fullett> range
<gary fullett> ?
<Zack> Yes, at low end
<gary fullett> ahhh
<Mark> i agree on 474
<nagual>
<Mark> i think
<gary fullett> it was support then resisytance mark
<Mark> yes definitly
<gary fullett> means afight Zack
<gary fullett> between bulls and bears
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> heavy volume means it will resolve itself quickly
<gary fullett> if u had a bc
<Mark> be right back
<gary fullett> and this happened at the bottom of support of the range zack
<gary fullett> it is bearish
<gary fullett> means supply is winning
<gary fullett> as I mentioned to mike before
<gary fullett> it depends on where volume and price action occur
<Mike> And if its in arange after a Selling climax?
<Mike> Its Bullish
<gary fullett> because this heavy volume small range
<gary fullett> is within a bearish market becasue u had the BC
<Zack> No climax, just bottom of range
<gary fullett> I will gto selling colmaxes
<gary fullett> mike
<gary fullett> I am getting there :)
<Mike> sorry
<gary fullett> I know zack
<gary fullett> dont be sorry
<Mike> k
<gary fullett> I just want to ahve aflow
<gary fullett> but if it hppens
<gary fullett> after the BC happens
<gary fullett> and then during a range
<gary fullett> it is bearish
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> I know u didnt mean on a climax
<gary fullett> but a range after a climax i was talking about
<gary fullett> okay?
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> so we broke thru the ice
<gary fullett> then to the next support
<gary fullett> the public is getting stpped out
<gary fullett> and new longs buy
<gary fullett> we hit support
<gary fullett> the volume is heavier on the breaks than the rallies
<gary fullett> the market hits suppot
<gary fullett> the rally is labored
<gary fullett> lighter volume
<gary fullett> smaller price range
<gary fullett> ad it rallies
<nagual> why is that?
<gary fullett> guess where it stops?
<gary fullett> it shows LACK OF DEMAND nagual
<gary fullett> light volume rallies
<Mike> resistance
<gary fullett> after supplt came in on the SOW
<gary fullett> once supply came in Deamnd must prove itself
<Mark>
<gary fullett> and a light volume raly with a small range
<gary fullett> doesnt prove it
<gary fullett> okay?
<gary fullett> it ralies to resisatnce
<gary fullett> guess where that is?
<gary fullett> at the ICE level
<Mark> previous support?
<gary fullett> previous suport now reietnce
<gary fullett> resistance
<Zack>
<gary fullett> okay?
<gary fullett> questions>? understand?
<Mark> so far ok
<Mike> y
<gary fullett> this type of stairs
<gary fullett> or lower lows and lower highs is the downtrend
<gary fullett> the market will go into trading ranges after breaks as well
<nagual> why cm is always net long at meaningful bottoms and net short at meaningful highs?
<gary fullett> and gain brak thru more ice
<gary fullett> they are smart and know
<gary fullett> they get paid to "know:
<gary fullett> they know the news
<gary fullett> and wage campaignd
<Mark> so on a daily chart, how does this show up?
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> what do u mean how does it show?
<Mark> near the bottom of the trend, closes are not at the range lows as frequently?
<gary fullett> markets tend to close near the lows
<gary fullett> ina baearish market
<Mark> yes
<Mark> that is what i mean
<gary fullett> but it depends on volume and price action
<gary fullett> in a down trend u still get rallies
<gary fullett> and closes at the highs
<gary fullett> generaly weak closes mark
<Mark> less frequently on average?
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> so the process of mark down begins in earnest after the breaking of the ice
<gary fullett> the neews is gtting less bullish
<gary fullett> now maybe the news gets a tad bearish
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> anfd the funds beinn to sell
<gary fullett> finally after the move is underway
<gary fullett> the funds begin to get short
<gary fullett> after being long
<gary fullett> then the public evenataully catches
<gary fullett> on
<gary fullett> and the cm who is short alrady
<Mark> and the cm does a shake out?
<gary fullett> will conduct rallies to get the shorts out
<gary fullett> and to get short himself on rallies
<gary fullett> yes he does
<Mike>
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> and plays cat and mouse with th pblic
<gary fullett> rallies to shake them out
<Mark> sure seems like it
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> he may buy more than he sells
<gary fullett> but on net balance short
<gary fullett> this process continues
<gary fullett> till
<gary fullett> the public begins to sell more heavy
<gary fullett> near the end of a move
<chris> in hogs we have SOW and a break to next S but the spring - is that part of shakeout or signals end of downtrend?
<gary fullett> and this cm will conduct his first meaningful rally
<gary fullett> with heavy volume and higher price action
<gary fullett> great q chris
<gary fullett> it was a spring
<gary fullett> of support
<gary fullett> but over all we had a BC
<gary fullett> so that sprindg it to shake out the shorts
<gary fullett> and hogs need to be sold at ice
<Mark> heck yes
<gary fullett> I will dicuss that chart tomorrow
<gary fullett> great observation
<chris> I see
<Mark> i got burned big last year in that :(
<gary fullett> I sent that chart didnt discuss yet
<gary fullett> sorry
<Zack>
<gary fullett> u didnt know wyckoff then
<Mark> thats part of the learning process
<Mark> VERY true
<gary fullett> yes we all do it
<gary fullett> so the first meaningful rally we see
<Mark> if only.........
<gary fullett> in a downtrend is called
<gary fullett> prelimary support
<gary fullett> the first time the CM buys
<gary fullett> to provide meanng fl suppoirt
<Mark> i think the cm is a buddy of greg maddox
<gary fullett> PSY for short
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> since the public got short late
<gary fullett> this rally knocks them out
<gary fullett> at this point the CM is begginning to know the downtrend is Over
<gary fullett> and he begins to cover shorts
<gary fullett> volume is haevier
<gary fullett> the funds and public getting more short
<gary fullett> he see this
<gary fullett> and cvers his shorts at great prices
<Mark> volume heavier on up days, down days, or does it matter?
<gary fullett> just opposite of the BC action
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> matter mark
<gary fullett> for the mist part\volumee and price action larger on the down
<gary fullett> showing supply
<gary fullett> or selling
<gary fullett> the public is noe bearish
<gary fullett> news is bearish
<gary fullett> the cm sees this he begins to cover
<gary fullett> not at the lows
<gary fullett> but at lower prices
<gary fullett> the rally is conducted to shke the public
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> volume is increasing on that raly showing the CM demand now
<gary fullett> he is buying
<gary fullett> covering shorts
<Mike>
<gary fullett> it rallies to previous support now reeistnce
<gary fullett> and fails
<gary fullett> and breaks hard with the heaviest volume of the down move
<gary fullett> with wide price action
<gary fullett> heaviest volume bearish news
<Mark> got it
<Mark> because longs are stopping out?
<gary fullett> on this break it is called the selling climax
<Mark> this gets a volume spike?
<gary fullett> YES
<Mark> and adds momentum to the drop?
<gary fullett> the fear sets in margin cals
<Mark> ok
<Mark> yes i bet
<gary fullett> the cm buys in the rest of his shorts on the BC
<gary fullett> the down move is over
<gary fullett> then guess what happens next?
<Mark> lol
<gary fullett> after the selling climax
<Mark> price rbounds
<gary fullett> the automatic rally
<gary fullett> AR
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> it will rally to reistance
<Zack>
<gary fullett> then fail
<gary fullett> the volume high on the rallt
<gary fullett> then on the retest
<gary fullett> of the SC
<gary fullett> the volume islight showing lack of supply
<gary fullett> the market eneters thjen into a trading range
<gary fullett> for accumaultion to begin
<gary fullett> for a pending up move
<gary fullett> and the wave begins to the up
<Mark> small ranges just under resistence?
<gary fullett> I will go over the up move tomorrow
<Mark> ok
<nagual>
<gary fullett> Yep
<gary fullett> so volume can be different at differnt stages
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> and views differntly
<chris>
<gary fullett> and I wills how examples
<gary fullett> so heavyvolume at support can be bullish or bearish depending on the trand
<gary fullett> and where it occurs
<gary fullett> whew
<gary fullett> hat was alot :)
<Mark> yes
<Mark> yes it was
<Zack> :)
<gary fullett> I will review the up move tomorrow with the RB hogs
<gary fullett> and beans
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> did u undertand?>
<gary fullett> questions please ask lots of stuff here
<Mark> so far in concept
<gary fullett> U must understand so u can learn wyckoff
<Mark> some examples would be good
<gary fullett> when u havent traded uit amrket it iss all concept
<gary fullett> I will show examples in charts
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> tomorrow in hogs for eample
<gary fullett> best to see live action charts
<Mark> speaking of....what was the volume in coffee today?
<gary fullett> not hindsight ones
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> Nagual?
<nagual> 4300
<gary fullett> i teach so hopefully u can trade and make money in real time
<gary fullett> not concept teching to
<gary fullett> enetretain
<Mark>
<gary fullett> this showed in cofffe lack of supply
<gary fullett> 2 nd day
<Zack> Gary did you say 25K in Gold , not 2,500
<Mark> how did this show up?
<gary fullett> yes 26 k
<nagual> now the news are coming out and it'll propel the move
<gary fullett> what news?
<gary fullett> in volume mark
<Mark> ok
<nagual> 9 million bags lost in some news
<Mark> ok, so it held its ground on light volume?
<Mark> or made a small gain actually..........
<chris>
<Mike>
<gary fullett> iis tha bulish news nagual?
<nagual> should be
<gary fullett> the bleeding to the down stop mark
<gary fullett> interesting we saw that on monday
<nagual> 255 of next years crop
<nagual> 25%
<gary fullett> and yesterday with the shortening of th doenward thrust
<Joe K> should be, but the market may wait, they are skeptical here
<gary fullett> when did that come out?
<Joe K> today
<nagual> is not official
<Mark> lost?
<Joe K> its unofficial from Brazils Government
<gary fullett> u were right to be long
<Joe K> not Empara
<Mark> yes, i mean, its sinking in
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> interesting
<Mark> cm sink a ship?
<gary fullett> did u need the news to tell u bullish news would be coming?
<nagual> gap up for tomorrow!lol
<Joe K> thats for next years crop too, not this one
<gary fullett> iinteresting
<Joe K> I think the market is on cruis control, may gett jittery
<gary fullett> that th cm bought support the last 2 days
<Joe K> yes
<gary fullett> and u ask
<Mark> this is accumulation?
<gary fullett> how can we detect the cm before the nes
<gary fullett> that is why i dont trade new
<gary fullett> I thought the action was bullish
<Mark> trade price and volume only?
<Zack> Real time example of "control the news"
<gary fullett> YES YES YES
<Joe K> but still the cm like you said, is more defending here to me
<Mark> and cot?
<gary fullett> he controlled th rnages the last 2 days
<gary fullett> if we gap tomorrow
<gary fullett> u will know the news in 2 days
<Zack> Hmmmm. Wonder what the news will be in Gold. Should be out soon?
<Mark> what are you expecting?
<gary fullett> agree zack
<Mark> interest rate hikes?
<gary fullett> inflation creeping
<gary fullett> in
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> I know what it will be
<Mark> ?
<gary fullett> gold companies lifting hegdes
<gary fullett> they wont hegde or sell gold
<Zack> Saudis refuse US $ ,want to be paid in Gold :):)
<gary fullett> :)
<Mark> wow
<Mark> that would do it
<gary fullett> so the market action will tell u the NEWS
<gary fullett> the news will propell it
<Mark> yes, in a hurry
<gary fullett> but after the cm has its postion
<gary fullett> the news
<Mike>
<gary fullett> is the time when the funds and public biys
<gary fullett> not the cm
<gary fullett> he is long before the bullish news is out
<Zack> Been a long time building his metals position. Should be a dandy move:)
<Mark> daily limits in gold?
<gary fullett> I agree
<gary fullett> esp in silver
<Mark> maybe alot of the saudi's are also long in gold
<Joe K> Gary , who burns the CM ? When it happens ?
<gary fullett> not in the front month
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> themselves Joe
<gary fullett> I donrt belive
<Joe K> in what way
<gary fullett> thelike a pker game
<chris>
<gary fullett> did tonight help?
<Mark> yes, as always
<gary fullett> are there any other questions?
<Joe K> yes
<Zack> You bet
<chris> yes, very - thank you
<gary fullett> did it help with the basics of wyckoff?
<Mark> yes again
<Joe K> yes
<chris> y
<Mike> Yes
<gary fullett> there is alot more
<gary fullett> folks
<gary fullett> and I will go over all examples
<Zack> Hey Gary what about this for news. Central Banks hike lease rates to 15%
<Mark> i ordered the first book he wrote
<Joe K> As droopy would say " OH BOY "
<gary fullett> but rome wasnt built in a da y
<Mark> the one on the page
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> it wil work zack
<Mark> will this cover alot of his principles?
<gary fullett> what page?
<gary fullett> the course does
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> not the books
<Joe K> I lost Rome in a day, and got it back that night, playing RISK
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> but the books exlains how he trade
<gary fullett> but mot the course that i go over
<Mike> Great game Joe K
<gary fullett> I love risk
<Joe K> yes luv it
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> have 2 old versions
<gary fullett> wooh men not the plastic ones
<gary fullett> :)
<Joe K> knew we had something else in common guys
<Zack> Me too plus computer version
<Mike> have one old, one new
<Joe K> little wooden block pieces
<nagual> have to go good nite
<Joe K> lol
<Mark> like monopoly myself
<gary fullett> whch book did u buy from the site?
<Mark> hmm
<gary fullett> played that on sat mark
<Joe K> nite nagual
<Mark> forgot the title, yellow?
<gary fullett> night nagual
User [nagual] left forum on Wed Jul 26 22:58:12 EDT 2000
<Mark> first one that shows on the web page
<chris> night all -good class!
<gary fullett> k
<Mark> anyway, need to go also
<gary fullett> well see u all tomorrow night
<Mark> thanks again
<gary fullett> i hoped it helped
<gary fullett> night all
<Mark> yes
<Mike> good night
User [chris] left forum on Wed Jul 26 22:58:57 EDT 2000
User [gary fullett] left forum on Wed Jul 26 22:58:59 EDT 2000