User [gary fullett /172.139.140.254] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 20:53:03 EDT 2000
User [Capt. /24.93.31.53] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 20:57:00 EDT 2000
User [nagual /209.214.1.134] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 20:57:01 EDT 2000
<nagual> nite all
<Capt.> good evening
<gary fullett> good evening sorry i was placing a few grain orders
<gary fullett> okay I am back
<gary fullett> did u all get the charts?
<Capt.> y
User [chris /63.15.181.249] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 20:59:44 EDT 2000
<nagual> i did not check it out
<chris> hi everyone
<nagual> hi
<Capt.> hi chris
User [Zack /206.71.125.134] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:02:09 EDT 2000
<nagual> no joe k yet?
<Zack> Hi all
<nagual> Hi zack
<Capt.> hi zack
<chris> hi
User [gary fullett /172.148.20.222] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:03:04 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> sorry got booted off
<gary fullett> how is everyone tongight
<gary fullett> did u all get the charts?
<gary fullett> lots to talk about
<nagual> doing fine
<gary fullett> I want to introduce a new concept todonight
<gary fullett> as well as talk on the energies
<gary fullett> and other markets
<gary fullett> on tuesday it is chart night
<Zack> Stepping out to get them
User [Zack] left forum on Tue Jul 25 21:04:46 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> k zack will a minute
<gary fullett> since coffee did somehting interesting today
<gary fullett> and we have been tracking it I will start with this
<gary fullett> I sent the daily and wekly of some charts tonight
<gary fullett> first before I begin any questions?
<gary fullett> markets, wyckoff or in general?
<gary fullett> I will wait a minute for zack if yu dont mind
<Capt.> k
<gary fullett> because I want to talk about an important concept
<gary fullett> and I want him to see as well
<gary fullett> as the other people for the logs
<chris>
<gary fullett> okay let me begin
<gary fullett> and he can see the log
<gary fullett> later
<gary fullett> lets start with weekly cofffee
<gary fullett> lets go back
<gary fullett> to last sept
<gary fullett> do u see the the large rally from
<gary fullett> 9400-12400
User [Zack /206.71.125.134] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:10:26 EDT 2000
<Capt.> y
<gary fullett> could be the first week in oCt
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> weekly coffee zack
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> this was a rally from the lows right
<gary fullett> the low was about 88
<Capt.> y
<Zack> OK. But didn't recieve charts
<gary fullett> hmm sorry about that
<gary fullett> I will have to fire Kelly
<gary fullett> well the market rallied
<gary fullett> this was DEMAND
<gary fullett> buying see this
<gary fullett> then what did the market do?
<Capt.> y
<Capt.> fell
<gary fullett> it broke back to the 9400 area
<gary fullett> retraced the whole move right
<gary fullett> then rallied to new highs
<chris> y
<nagual> is this last year?
<gary fullett> yes i believ so
<gary fullett> chart wrong?
<nagual> sorry where do i get the weeklys
<gary fullett> on the website under archives
<gary fullett> they have them there now
<nagual> i have two screens
User [Frank /63.160.52.219] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:13:48 EDT 2000
<Zack>
<nagual> yes but i get dailies
<nagual> like up to july 25now
<gary fullett> i sent both weekly and daily
<gary fullett> any way
<gary fullett> the market then rallied to new highs after retracing the whole move
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> ?
<Capt.> y
User [Zack] left forum on Tue Jul 25 21:15:43 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> okay
User [Zack /206.71.125.134] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:16:02 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> then the market broke to the lows
<gary fullett> in july this yr
<gary fullett> then what happened
<gary fullett> before I forget
<Capt.> back up
<gary fullett> this rally last sept-oct
<gary fullett> this was a rally from the lows an autoamatic rally
<gary fullett> then a retest
<gary fullett> back to this july
<gary fullett> u hot a selling climax
<gary fullett> got not hot
<gary fullett> what ghappens after a selling climax
<gary fullett> an automatic rally
<gary fullett> that is what happened
<gary fullett> from 80 to 120
<gary fullett> this is the AR
<gary fullett> But this is also demand
<gary fullett> like last sept oct was
<nagual>
<gary fullett> understand
<Zack>
<gary fullett> what is important when u see demand
<chris> y
<gary fullett> it is important to buy support on the retest
<Capt.> right
<gary fullett> well ideally coffee should have held the 94-96
<gary fullett> area
<gary fullett> but not ideal all the time markets
<gary fullett> so it retested the whole
<gary fullett> move
<gary fullett> it didnt do this last sept-oct
<gary fullett> came within 8 cents
<gary fullett> now we came within 2 cents
<gary fullett> so u never know if u will retest the whole move
<gary fullett> almost the whole move
<gary fullett> or
<gary fullett> spring the lows
<gary fullett> in coffee now we still dont know
<gary fullett> but we know we had demand
<gary fullett> and had an AR
<gary fullett> and now are retesting
<gary fullett> on a retest
<gary fullett> u expect smaller ranges
<gary fullett> and lighter volume
<gary fullett> so on the weekly we had demand
<gary fullett> now we are reteing supprt
<gary fullett> questions on the weely
<gary fullett> I want to go to the daily next
<Capt.> n
<Zack>
<chris>
<gary fullett> understand my point about demand?
<gary fullett> AR and retest right?
<gary fullett> important
<Capt.> y
<gary fullett> great dailies
<gary fullett> I want to
<nagual>
<gary fullett> talk about a new wyckoff
<gary fullett> point
<gary fullett> we had a selling climax
<gary fullett> in july
<gary fullett> then a sharp rally
<gary fullett> this is demand right
<Capt.> yes
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> now we are reting
<gary fullett> retesting
<gary fullett> so in wyckoff
<gary fullett> the time frame
<gary fullett> is differnt
<gary fullett> but the Principles work on the daily
<gary fullett> weekly
<gary fullett> monthly
<gary fullett> intraday ect..
<gary fullett> okay?
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> so we have demand
<Capt.> ok
<gary fullett> an AR
<gary fullett> now a retest
<gary fullett> just like the weekly
<gary fullett> okay
<Capt.> y
<gary fullett> what was the volume in coffee yesterday?
<nagual> 14k
<gary fullett> and the market action?
<gary fullett> higher or lower>?
<nagual> sell off
<gary fullett> lower right
<gary fullett> correct
<gary fullett> what was the volume today
<gary fullett> ?
<nagual> 6k
<gary fullett> what was the action today?>
<gary fullett> higher otr lower>?
<Capt.> lower
User [Guest /209.16.79.5] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:27:21 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> what was the range today?
<gary fullett> small or large>?
<nagual> small
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> so what is the CM telling us
<nagual> 8500/8725
<nagual> no strong supply
<gary fullett> hmm
<gary fullett> we talked about coffee yesterday
<gary fullett> and said that the range AFTER the gap was msall
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> and the volume high
<Capt.> y
<gary fullett> so this meant a fight between bulls
<gary fullett> and bears
<gary fullett> but someone Bought
<gary fullett> the contracyts that were sold
<gary fullett> and the price didnt move far off the
<gary fullett> opening range
<gary fullett> so someone boought the heavy supply
<Frank>
<gary fullett> afer yesterdays gap
<gary fullett> do u think it was the small spces absorbing all that volume?
<Zack> n
<nagual>
<gary fullett> who do u think bought
<gary fullett> ?
<Capt.> cm
<Zack> CM
<gary fullett> I would think so
<gary fullett> fot prints ?
<gary fullett> foot
<gary fullett> so we know that the cm bought that supply
<gary fullett> or at leats we think we do
<gary fullett> so if they did
<gary fullett> what wuld be the expected action today
<gary fullett> I mentioneed yesterday that if we opened higher
<gary fullett> the it would sell
<gary fullett> and that if the market opened up steady
<gary fullett> I said 100 points either way
<gary fullett> it did today
<gary fullett> thay we would rally to reisistance
<gary fullett> but the mentality is is neg
<gary fullett> so..
User [joe k /172.140.31.141] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:33:23 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> if the CM is long
<gary fullett> and he bought yesterdays supply
<joe k> hey everyong
<gary fullett> and more funds and small specs sell today
<Capt.> hey
<Zack> hey Joe
<gary fullett> do u think he will try to defend his position?
<gary fullett> hey joe
<Zack> yes
<gary fullett> yes he would
<chris>
<gary fullett> so this is the reason for the small
<gary fullett> range
<gary fullett> we said volume was light at 6 k
<gary fullett> why ?
<gary fullett> do u think it was 6 k of CM voilume
<gary fullett> or was it
<gary fullett> the pit traders funds and small specs?
<nagual> them
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> because of yesterday
<gary fullett> so the cm really dint have to buy much
<gary fullett> and watched the markst action today
<gary fullett> I told u we need Demand in coffee
<gary fullett> so if the marjket was higher today with small volume
<gary fullett> this wouldnt have been demand
<gary fullett> small volume buyers
<gary fullett> but if we see lower prices
<gary fullett> with light volume'
<gary fullett> we can conclude
<gary fullett> small sellers?
<gary fullett> understad
<gary fullett> the small range
<nagual> y
<gary fullett> today is called
<gary fullett> a "shortening of the down ward thrust "
<Zack> Wow. Another light turned on :)
<gary fullett> this means small seller the cm abosorb
<gary fullett> and "controlled
<gary fullett> the range today
<gary fullett> think about that
<joe k>
<Zack> Gary, CM building more cause?
<chris>
<gary fullett> yep on the retets
<gary fullett> retest
<gary fullett> a light turned on zack? high electric bills then Lol :)
<gary fullett> so this is called stuffing to me
<Zack> Thats OK better than high drawdonws :)
<gary fullett> the cm is absorbig and stuffing the weak shorts and will catch them down here
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> so we have a new term
<gary fullett> amos used this term on Ino.com
<gary fullett> I wanted to explain
<gary fullett> though I mentioned last nightr
<gary fullett> about the cm absorbing high supply
<gary fullett> u msut stop the down before u can go up
<gary fullett> now U can say why did we break so hard in 1 day
<gary fullett> from
<gary fullett> 120
<gary fullett> because that was Ice from alst ye
<gary fullett> it was the high of the rally from the demand
<gary fullett> last sept Oct
<gary fullett> it want weather it ws CHARTs and WYCKOFF
<gary fullett> wasnt
<gary fullett> weather
<gary fullett> people talk weather BS
<gary fullett> look at the chart
<gary fullett> Last yr in sept -oct..
<gary fullett> thje high was 123
<gary fullett> on that forst demand
<gary fullett> all we did was retest this
<gary fullett> do u se this?
<gary fullett> u must look at all times frames
<gary fullett> daily weekly monthly
<gary fullett> look at the weekly I sent u
<gary fullett> came within 100 points
<gary fullett> of Ice
<gary fullett> see this?
<Capt.> yep
<gary fullett> can u see ,me?
<Capt.> yep
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> i didnt make this UP
<Zack> y
<gary fullett> it is real
<gary fullett> so anyone who saus weather is BS news
<gary fullett> yes weather will make a market move faster
<gary fullett> like gs on a fire
<gary fullett> but this market wasgoing to ice at 120
<gary fullett> weather it happened in 1 day
<gary fullett> or 6 weeks
<gary fullett> reisatnce was resistance
<Guest>
<gary fullett> support is support
<gary fullett> see that resistance?
<gary fullett> dont u think the CM knew this
<gary fullett> 122 area
<gary fullett> now a retest
<gary fullett> and we will retest that ice I believe
<Capt.> these lines of resistance and support that are in the past can be very important on the daily charts as well
<gary fullett> YES
<gary fullett> most important on monthly then weekly then daily then intraday
<gary fullett> longer time frame more important the chart
<gary fullett> more cause
<Capt.> right
<Zack> Kinda like the old chinese puzzel boxes. One inside another inside another
<gary fullett> I hope u see this resiatnce
<gary fullett> I shouwed it to u
<gary fullett> abobe 122
<gary fullett> above 122
<gary fullett> the market to me retest the highs
<gary fullett> at 150
<gary fullett> it is a puzzle
<gary fullett> u put the pieces
<joe k> how long for a retest ya think ? of 120 area ?
<gary fullett> left to u by the CM
<gary fullett> the foot prints
<gary fullett> tomoorw
<joe k> tomorrow ?
<gary fullett> I expect the ice age in Brazil
<Zack> lol
<gary fullett> how in the heck do I know
<nagual> yeah joe tomorrow
<gary fullett> i would have sept calls on though
<Capt.> he,he ,he
<joe k> ok guys
<gary fullett> wouldnt
<gary fullett> I would say that it may take 2-3 weeks
<nagual> no monday at 1:10 Pm
<joe k> lol
<gary fullett> it may not ahppen in the sept contract
<gary fullett> but I would say dec
<gary fullett> if u go to the wyckoff
<gary fullett> post board
<gary fullett> on my site I talked about coffeein the low 90's that is was aacumalting
<gary fullett> I said this in MAY
<gary fullett> how did I know that a frost scared woiuld ahppend
<gary fullett> I watched the charts
<gary fullett> wednesday at 1233 chicago time Joe
<gary fullett> a minute after the close
<gary fullett> so I saw accmulation in coffee then
<gary fullett> I saw demand
<gary fullett> and now a retest
<gary fullett> and today to me was a positive day
<gary fullett> though lower
<gary fullett> questions on the new term
<gary fullett> or on coffee
<gary fullett> I want to talk metals
<gary fullett> then energies
<gary fullett> after coffee
<joe k> ok since the cm uses the news, then he will use the next majoer news item to do this, correct ?
<gary fullett> questions?
<nagual> the term is shortening the downward what?
<gary fullett> after the marke makes a move I guarrentee u u will see "news:
<gary fullett> thrust
<gary fullett> or u can watch for Susan on INo
<gary fullett> to tell u :)lol
<nagual> my baby
<Zack> lol
<joe k> Susan ? lol
<gary fullett> but u will see news AFTER the event
<gary fullett> susan will inform u about why it did it AFTER the fact
<gary fullett> the CM 's dream
<gary fullett> when a market is breaking hard
<gary fullett> and the volume slows and the range tight
<gary fullett> this is called the "shortening of the downward thrust ":
<nagual> you say itmight not move in thesept cont we still have almost 4 weeks
<gary fullett> that is what happened in coffee today
<gary fullett> it is designed to catch shorts
<gary fullett> and prepares the CM;s to run it up
<gary fullett> to me it is a sign
<gary fullett> sept option Nagual
<nagual> a gap up tomorrow possible ?
<gary fullett> hey it could happend in 3 days
<gary fullett> we have cause because of the retest
<gary fullett> we didnt have enough cause last week
<gary fullett> but now we have more cause
<gary fullett> hmmm
<gary fullett> nagaul
<gary fullett> I would venture to say
<gary fullett> that buy stops
<gary fullett> are above 8900
<gary fullett> and under 80 cents
<gary fullett> so if u gap above
<Zack> Slightly more downside just to give the short more hope?
<gary fullett> 89 94-96
<gary fullett> that is always possible zack
<gary fullett> they could spring it at 80
<gary fullett> to clean more logs
<nagual> but cm would he like to gap up now
<gary fullett> and give shorts more hope
<gary fullett> if he is ready
User [Frank /63.160.52.219] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 21:56:39 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and can equte some bullish news with a gap higher yes
<gary fullett> he can gap it on no news to high
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> the pit will sell
User [Guest] left forum on Tue Jul 25 21:57:06 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> he needs some bullishness so people can push his longs up
<nagual> but if they see they are wrong would they reverse automatically?
<gary fullett> they dont sell breaks
<gary fullett> so i dont think
<gary fullett> they will sel lower
<gary fullett> what they will do
<gary fullett> is conduct a rally
<gary fullett> to sell short if that is the case nagaul
<gary fullett> they will seel the rally
<gary fullett> like grains yestersay
<gary fullett> understand?
<Zack>
<gary fullett> make sense?
<Capt.> y
<chris>
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> metals
<gary fullett> since zack has asked so much about them
<gary fullett> silver
<Zack> aka "Scrooge McDuck"
<gary fullett> silver has been in a range
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> for the past
<gary fullett> 7 months
<gary fullett> this sideways action
<gary fullett> wis building cause
<gary fullett> large ause
<gary fullett> cause
<nagual> so what implications has an inside day like today,s in wyckoff terms? when you can answer pls
<gary fullett> an inside day
<gary fullett> with llight volume to wyckoff
<nagual> y
<gary fullett> is a reversal type of action
<gary fullett> so i expect
<gary fullett> a move higher from here nagual
<gary fullett> silver
<gary fullett> sideways
<nagual> tks
<gary fullett> they retested support at 495
<gary fullett> my pleasure does that help
<gary fullett> r u clear on coffee from a wyckoff view?
<Capt.> y
<gary fullett> so to me in silver above that trendline
<gary fullett> at 511
<gary fullett> is important
<gary fullett> above that 523 area
<gary fullett> if the rally to there is will be demand
<gary fullett> and a move to 600 i belive
<gary fullett> large count here
<Capt.> would you expect to see more action above trend line or if it were to break resistence?
<gary fullett> so if u see demand
<gary fullett> U MUST be long
<Frank>
<gary fullett> I would say the horizonatal line at 523 is more important
<Capt.> ok
<gary fullett> that is where supplt or resisatnce realy i
<gary fullett> from awyckoff view
<Zack> A little blip up today on some volume, then leveled out with low volume
<gary fullett> but I think u can buy above 511
<gary fullett> with a 6 cent stop or so
<gary fullett> above 523
<gary fullett> i think i can be long
<gary fullett> with a 10 cent stop and hve a nie move
<gary fullett> nic
<gary fullett> nice
<gary fullett> yikes
<gary fullett> do u se the support resisatnce and that trndline
<gary fullett> I am preparing u for a big move
<Zack> Lots of resistance around the 5.25 area. But Silver can blow right thru resistance foe the famous "Silver Spike".
<gary fullett> this market may be the best trade after it breaks out
<gary fullett> remeber warren Buffet owning silver?
<nagual> long time accumulating
<gary fullett> when it ran up sharply\
<gary fullett> yes nagual
<gary fullett> do u think he is still long?
<nagual> yes
<Zack> Took delivery. Owns part of Kodak
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> do u think he is a CM?
<Capt.> yep
<nagual> IS LARRY WILLIAMS AC/DC taken from wyckoff?
<Zack> When he wants to be, yes
<gary fullett> Yes it is nagual
<gary fullett> ken roberts 123 is taking from him too
<gary fullett> I htink he is a CM
<gary fullett> he is in the know
<Capt.> Het he has an insurance company he needs to be an investor in a big way
<Zack> Boy did KR simplify it :)
<gary fullett> and I think he has a postion and silver will make another large run
<gary fullett> yeah he did and make millions :)
<Zack> From courses, not trading
<gary fullett> so watch silver nothing now but.....
<gary fullett> right zack
<gary fullett> he should pay the wyckoff family
<gary fullett> resisdues
<gary fullett> residuals
<Zack> lol
<gary fullett> he got it from wyckoff
<gary fullett> but wyckoff didnt have the net :)
<Zack> What about Gold, Gary?
<gary fullett> a cowboy hat or cigar
<gary fullett> questions on silver?
<gary fullett> lets take weekly gold
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> look at last July
<gary fullett> the large rally
<nagual> a sign for silver to shoot uo\p will be inflation creeping in?
<gary fullett> 262 to 320
<gary fullett> ah ha
<gary fullett> do u think that will be the "news" after the fact nagual?
<nagual> or gold for that matter
<Capt.> it already is creeping in
<gary fullett> they are not nflation hedges as they were once were
<gary fullett> but they will use this an an excuse
<gary fullett> the cm cant
<Zack> Not up before election time (officialy)
<gary fullett> just rally it he needs to be support by some "knews
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> that is why gas prices are coming down
<gary fullett> cant have high pump price
<gary fullett> gore will be dead
<gary fullett> he will lose
<gary fullett> the election
<gary fullett> dead in the water
<gary fullett> people vote with thier pocket books
<gary fullett> and high gas prices
<nagual> so no more interest hikes for now
<gary fullett> will htr
<gary fullett> they amrket will tell me
<gary fullett> I dont follow mr greensapn
<gary fullett> if bonds break
<gary fullett> a rate hike yes
<gary fullett> if they stay here otr rally no hike
<gary fullett> a hike in front of an election
<Zack> So earliest inflation "news" wil be in December?
<gary fullett> unlikely to me
<gary fullett> mid nox
<gary fullett> nox
<gary fullett> BUT
<gary fullett> what a way to creep up prices
<gary fullett> by the cm
<gary fullett> in the next few months
<gary fullett> then it catches
<gary fullett> people eyes
<gary fullett> after the election
<gary fullett> and they buy after the CM marks up prices
<Zack> Shouldn"t we have a selling climax in metals first?
<gary fullett> they can rally prices now as
<gary fullett> most dont expect it
<gary fullett> they dont like company
<joe k>
<gary fullett> so god had demand
<gary fullett> last july
<gary fullett> thne a retes
<gary fullett> in frb
<Capt.>
<gary fullett> feb
User [chris /63.15.181.249] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 22:20:45 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> now look how long gold is taking to retest
<gary fullett> 5 months
<gary fullett> up in 2 weeks'
<gary fullett> down in 6 months
<gary fullett> that menas
<gary fullett> it rallies faster than it breaks
<gary fullett> bullish
User [Mark /206.117.248.119] joined forum on Tue Jul 25 22:21:21 EDT 2000
<Frank>
<Frank>
<gary fullett> needs :news" to accompiy the move though
<Mark> hi
<gary fullett> hey mark just in time for enegegies
<Mark> save the best for last?
<Zack> So with enough "cause" a selling climax may not be neccessary?
<Mark> cool
<gary fullett> after gold
<Mark> i wouldn't trade them, but interesting
<nagual> but didn't a selling climax occurs before the cause?
<gary fullett> naw didnt get to it late thought u may stop by mark
<gary fullett> right ZACK
<gary fullett> very good
<Mark> just got in from a beach barbecue
<gary fullett> not all the time nagaul
<gary fullett> but Most times
<Mark> family stuff keeps getting in the way
<gary fullett> a sc happens before the uptrend begins
<gary fullett> but gold has shown DEMAND
<gary fullett> so a SC may not occur
<Mark> by volume?
<nagual> so it may have just accumulation and not sc?
<gary fullett> volume and price action
<gary fullett> yes ossible
<gary fullett> not often Nagual
<gary fullett> weekly gold
<gary fullett> u may had had a selling climax
<gary fullett> in may 1999
<nagual> so most times is sc/ar/retest and cause for higher prices?
<gary fullett> I m sorry may 2000
<gary fullett> then a rally 4 dyas later
<joe k>
<gary fullett> AR with demand
<gary fullett> now a retest
<gary fullett> YES nagual Perfect
<Mark> seems like a long time ...........
<Zack>
<gary fullett> it is mark
<gary fullett> longer the cause the larger the move
<Mark> accumulation?
<gary fullett> I think so
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> now that doesnt mean we cant sprin it
<gary fullett> and go to 485 then above 500
<Zack> Silver in particular has been in an uncharacteristic relatively tight range for months now.
<gary fullett> gold is hovering atsupport now
<nagual> how do you detect it is a spring and not a conyinuation aof a down fall?
<gary fullett> and if bulloish hould hold here with silver
<gary fullett> to me i think u can be lonfg silver with a stop unser 492 area
<gary fullett> great q nagual
<gary fullett> by 2 factors
<gary fullett> 1" price action
<gary fullett> 2 volume
<gary fullett> if it is a spring
<gary fullett> it will come back in a day or 2
<gary fullett> if it doesnt a continuation of the down move
<gary fullett> remeber what I said on springs
<gary fullett> gen 1 day
<gary fullett> soemtimes 2 days
<gary fullett> rarely 3
<gary fullett> grea question though
<gary fullett> so gold above 288 bullish
<chris>
<gary fullett> silver above 511
<gary fullett> especailly 523 bullish
<Mark> would there not be a retest?
<Mark> as coffee and probably beans are doing?
<Zack> Both have been retested several times
<Mark> well........
<gary fullett> retested alrady at 495
<gary fullett> tand gold 278
<gary fullett> yep mark
<Mark> there ws never a high volume turn around poin with beans
<gary fullett> I think so :)
<gary fullett> on the move to 590?
<Mark> volume has been low for the last week
<Mark> in general i mean
<gary fullett> metals?
<gary fullett> and we have been trying to break
<Mark> beans gary
<gary fullett> this means supply drying
<gary fullett> up
<Capt.>
<gary fullett> in grains
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> the rally was on light volime
<Mark> but
<nagual> springs low volume means is just a spring?
<Mark> yes!!!
<gary fullett> and that is why we failed at resisatnce at 474
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> if the grains rallied on heavier volume
<gary fullett> it would be demand in grains
<gary fullett> not yet in grains
<Mark> that would seem to me to be true
<gary fullett> light volue in grains bearish
<Mark> but
<gary fullett> so it failed needs to showed demand
<gary fullett> metals showed demand
<gary fullett> so a light volume break is bullish
<gary fullett> once u see demadn
<gary fullett> light volume pullbacks are bullish
<gary fullett> if u dont see demadn
<gary fullett> light volume breaks are bearish
<Zack>
<gary fullett> I gave u my points in meatls and my ideas
<gary fullett> any question?
<Zack> Thanks Gary. No Q's
<gary fullett> zack =does that help?
<Zack> Yes
<Mark> question gary..........
<Mark> you don't talk much about momentum
<Mark> or have I missed it
<gary fullett> momentium
<gary fullett> happens when u jump the creek
<gary fullett> or break thru the ice
<gary fullett> if u jumop the creek that is demmand
<gary fullett> and that is Momentum
<Mark> do you think it is a byproduct of accumulation?
<gary fullett> whenu jump over the creek that is demand and is a mo mentum trade
<Mark> potential energy converted to kinetic energy?
<gary fullett> so yes there is momentum
<gary fullett> after accumaltion is done
<gary fullett> and it is about to be marked up
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> after the jump
<gary fullett> this makes it a by product
<gary fullett> of that accumaltion
<gary fullett> good way to look at it
<Mark> ok :)
<chris>
<nagual>
<Capt.>
<Zack>
<gary fullett> heating oil
<gary fullett> great wyckoff here
<gary fullett> the trend is?
<Mark> down, because it has hit a resistence area?
<gary fullett> longer term up
<Mark> ?
<gary fullett> now lets look at where it goes from here
<Mark> k
<gary fullett> I told u before that the rally in enegies was to slow the economy
<gary fullett> instead of raising rates they slow the economy by raising gas
<Mark> for what purpose?
<gary fullett> so u dont drive an spend less
<Mark> in conjunction with intrest rates?
<gary fullett> in fron tf the eletion it will come down
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> they want a slower economy
<gary fullett> where does it hurt the most
<gary fullett> in your pocket boojk
<gary fullett> at the pump
<Mark> correct, but also less or minimal inflation?
<gary fullett> cant raise food prices
<Mark> a very obvious to the consumer price
<gary fullett> they didnt want to raise too muxh so they used gas
<Mark> got it
<Zack> Too many pensions tied to so called core inflation. It won't go up much
<gary fullett> right zack
<Zack> Thats why energy and food are excluded
<gary fullett> but it was ON PURPOSE NOT OPEC
<gary fullett> I promise u that
<gary fullett> it was our gov
<gary fullett> opec I believe is controlled by us
<nagual>
<gary fullett> so we had the rally
<chris>
<gary fullett> then we broke
<gary fullett> mid june
<gary fullett> then we went sideways for several weeks
<Mark> is that why the transportation stock index has been slow?
<Mark> down i mean, or at least less bullish?
<gary fullett> dont know
<gary fullett> yes I would imagine so
<gary fullett> so we went sideways then what?
<gary fullett> a break
<gary fullett> this gap break was a SIGN of Weakness
<gary fullett> SOW
<gary fullett> since we see a SOW
<gary fullett> we wait for the retes
<gary fullett> like coffee on the downside
<gary fullett> energies on the up
<gary fullett> side
<gary fullett> thei s SIGN of weakness is the opposite of a Sign of strenghth
<gary fullett> this is SUPPLY or selling
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> works both ways folks
<gary fullett> so we know early july
<gary fullett> that we had a SOW
<gary fullett> see this
<gary fullett> now wait for the retest
<Capt.> y
<gary fullett> look what happene
<gary fullett> a large move
<gary fullett> 3 days ago
<gary fullett> upthrusted the highs
<gary fullett> and look at the close
<gary fullett> and look
<gary fullett> at the close
<gary fullett> weakness
<gary fullett> SUPPLY came in
<gary fullett> once on the gap
<Mark> close near the top of the trading range?
<gary fullett> then 3 days ago
<gary fullett> not 3 days ago
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> see what they did
<gary fullett> they had SOW
<gary fullett> early july
<gary fullett> and took out the highs 3 days ago
<gary fullett> one never knows as I said before
<gary fullett> if u will kake new highs
<gary fullett> and break
<gary fullett> just like coffee it coud spring
<gary fullett> 8200
<gary fullett> and rally like unleaded
<gary fullett> upthrusted 9700
<gary fullett> coffee can spring 80
<gary fullett> same concept 2 differnt markets
<gary fullett> 1 bullish to me one bearish
<Mark> makes sense
<gary fullett> see I can talk bearish too :)
<Zack> k
<Mark> lol
<gary fullett> makes sense then DOLLARS
<gary fullett> cents and dollras that is why we trade :)
<Mark> still trying to, have to work on stop placement
<joe k>
<gary fullett> ah great question
<gary fullett> I work closly with my clients on that
<Mark> i am frequently a day early and a dime short on my stops
<gary fullett> risk cntrol
<Mark> alomost literally
<gary fullett> that can be helped alot
<gary fullett> but nort all the time
<Mark> it better
<gary fullett> place stps at weird numbers that is a hint
<Mark> before i go broke:)
<Mark> started doing that
<gary fullett> Good
<Mark> and it has helped
<Mark> also
<gary fullett> there are other ways too
<Mark> pick a place
<Zack> Jus getting "stronger" Mark
<gary fullett> using opening ranges
<Mark> and add several ticks
<gary fullett> and other factors
<Mark> lol
<Mark> good up to a point
<gary fullett> u will always lose money in this Biz
<gary fullett> on trades
<gary fullett> but good traders make it
<gary fullett> back control riisk
<gary fullett> and know how to make it
<gary fullett> with wyvkoff u will have losing trades
<gary fullett> but 1 trade doesnt make a trader
<gary fullett> it is a marathon Not a sprint
<gary fullett> u may lose a fight but not the way
<Mark> very true
<gary fullett> war
<Mark> an analogy
<gary fullett> in the long run good traders amke money
<Mark> i coach little league
<gary fullett> in the long run bad trader NEVER make it
<nagual>
<gary fullett> me to mark
<Mark> cm is like a devious pircher
<gary fullett> I played minor league ball as well
<chris>
<Mark> delivers what you are not expecting
<gary fullett> yes but u can track a picture like the cm
<gary fullett> like curves
<Mark> no wonder i feel at home here!
<gary fullett> the CUBS never get to home :)
<gary fullett> gald u feel that way
<Mark> lol
<Mark> anyway.....coming from an engineering background, trading wasn't logical and rational
<Mark> and alot of technical people struggle
<gary fullett> hey I was in Bio engernerring
<joe k> Cubs won the world series in that "Back to the Future " movie lol
<gary fullett> before trading u r following in m steps :)
<gary fullett> I am waiting from 1906
<Mark> the horizontal thinking as it pertains to trading is the first rational thing in it i have sseen
<Mark> yes
<Mark> also biomedical here
<gary fullett> my grandparents lived and died before they won it ;)
<gary fullett> me as well where at mark?
<joe k> lol
<gary fullett> horizonatl trading
<gary fullett> is like a floor and celiing
<Mark> baxter, then self employed for 14 years
<Mark> right,
<gary fullett> floor being support
<gary fullett> celinfg being ice resisatnce
<Mark> that is why as sson as i was in here a few times
<Mark> it made sense
<gary fullett> coolege?
<gary fullett> college
<gary fullett> yes it is very logical
<Mark> cal poly pomona
<gary fullett> that is why u must learn How markets works
<Mark> sorry to digress guys
<gary fullett> No tricks
<gary fullett> No news
<Mark> yes!!!
<nagual>
<Zack>
<gary fullett> watch volume price action
<gary fullett> demand supply
<chris>
<gary fullett> effort vs result
<gary fullett> cause and effect
<joe k> coffee vs crude
<joe k> :)
<gary fullett> it orks folk wyckoff knew markets
<gary fullett> we can lose the cm can lose
<gary fullett> but to me it is the right way to look at markets
<gary fullett> the cm loses money too
<gary fullett> but we cant beat em but we can join em
<gary fullett> foot steps
<Mark> yes
<joe k> the cm isnt in the habbit of loosing alot
<Mark> the prob when technical people start trading
<gary fullett> nope and eoither should we
<joe k> agree
<Mark> isthat we think we can outsmart the market
<Mark> and soon find humility
<Zack> Don't like being a "good" loser :)
<Mark> nope
<gary fullett> very treu and the cm knows that
<Mark> think so
<gary fullett> he isa patient most traders arent
<Mark> bingo!!!
<Mark> get in now before i miss out!
<Mark> something like that?
<gary fullett> watch the cm
<gary fullett> they are the blue priny
<gary fullett> print
<Zack> Chasing markets is bad for the health (and wealth)
<Mark> yep
<gary fullett> watch their intentions and I belive u will do well
<gary fullett> yes zac
<Mark> staring to work ok
<gary fullett> dos this make more sense to u
<Mark> yes
<gary fullett> logical?
<Mark> wish i had been here long ago
<Mark> yes also
<gary fullett> most peopel,do mark
<gary fullett> I am serious'
<Mark> as i said, the first rational side of trading i have seen
<gary fullett> if u watch
<gary fullett> the market will speak to u
<nagual>
<gary fullett> I thinkit is very ration
<gary fullett> and easier to undersatnd No news No tricks
<gary fullett> do u know why more people dont
<gary fullett> follow it?
<Mark> yes, in the terms you have explained it
<Mark> risk?
<joe k> Gary,any Sugar thoughts ?
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> they dont
<gary fullett> want to work hard at wyckoff
<gary fullett> and that is why 400 pople get the log
<gary fullett> and a few show up
<Capt.> loosers like the company of loosers
<gary fullett> because they read the log
<gary fullett> but dont work hard at wyckoff
<gary fullett> some do
<gary fullett> I am serious if u work hard
<gary fullett> and underatnd
<gary fullett> the cm intentions
<gary fullett> I believe after 20 yrs
<gary fullett> that u wcan do well
<gary fullett> underatnd big money
<gary fullett> and the Cm intentions
<gary fullett> I will always do clas and for free
<gary fullett> because I am always learning
<joe k> standing ovation
<gary fullett> once I can gaureentee profit I will stop class and charhge :)
<joe k> lol
<gary fullett> that will never jhappen though :)
<gary fullett> no such tjig as a guarente profit
<gary fullett> any questions?
<joe k> why did you leave the pits
<gary fullett> no ovation
<gary fullett> the way i fel sorry
<gary fullett> I work and go to battle every day
<gary fullett> the enemy is the markets
<gary fullett> I work from home now so I can devoyte more time
<gary fullett> I hpe u enjoyed class tonight alot to abosrbed
User [Zack] left forum on Tue Jul 25 23:12:43 EDT 2000
<Capt.> it was good
<chris> another great class-thank you
<gary fullett> well I will see u all tomorrow night
<joe k> good as usual
<Mark> hope so
<gary fullett> have a great night
<joe k> you too
<gary fullett> I try Joe
<Mark> you too
<nagual> where are the weekly charts?i checked the archives but i see dailies only
<gary fullett> good night
<Mark> good night all
User [gary fullett] left forum on Tue Jul 25 23:13:43 EDT 2000