User [gary fullett /172.148.130.6] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 20:54:57 EDT 2000
User [Capt. /24.93.31.115] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 20:58:06 EDT 2000
<Capt.> Hey Gary
<Capt.> How is your Aunt doing ?
<gary fullett> good evening capt
<gary fullett> she is doing okay for someone 97 :)
<Capt.> 97 Can we all be so lucky!
<gary fullett> she was tired but she is going better thank u for asking
<gary fullett> 97 isnt bad nevr really was sick in her life
<Capt.> sounds like great genes to me
<gary fullett> maybe :)
User [Zack /206.71.125.70] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:00:45 EDT 2000
<Capt.> biology was my major
<gary fullett> me too
<Zack> Hi all
<gary fullett> I amstered in Bio
<gary fullett> mastered
<gary fullett> I was a paramendic
<gary fullett> then I started trading
<gary fullett> hey zack
<Capt.> me too ex operating room tech in the service
<gary fullett> i was never in the service
<gary fullett> but I did work with the city of chicago
<Zack> Bet Joe K is going to want to talk coffee tonight :0:0
<Capt.> different times different calls
<gary fullett> coffee was intering today
<gary fullett> I will wait for Nagual who said he will be late to talk cofffee
<gary fullett> I know some people will be late tonight
<gary fullett> I got alot of compliments with the logs over the last 2 weeks
<Zack> What's on the agenda tonight Gary?
<gary fullett> becasue people are participating
<Capt.> Well that is good but there are other things besides coffee and although intresting ----
<gary fullett> and people like to see questions
<gary fullett> I know
<gary fullett> capt
<gary fullett> and I dont want to talk that market but for a few min
<gary fullett> tonight
<gary fullett> I am open zack
<gary fullett> do u have somethibng that you would like me to discuss
<gary fullett> I always
<gary fullett> have somthing to talk on :)
<Zack> I would like to get a better handle on the term "spring"
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> it is used alot
<gary fullett> and I use it to desribe an action
<gary fullett> but I will explain
<gary fullett> it in true wyckoff form
<gary fullett> do u know what a trading range is>?
<Zack> y
<gary fullett> horizintal one
<gary fullett> lets say corn
<gary fullett> is trading between
<gary fullett> 240- 280
<Capt.> just the charts that you sent out is good enougf for me a broad spectrum about Wyckoof
<gary fullett> lows are 240
<gary fullett> highs are 280
<Capt.> take a look at lean hogs to see this
<gary fullett> okay do u want to explain capt
<gary fullett> ?
User [guest /206.251.171.197] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:09:42 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> capt?
User [guest] left forum on Thu Jul 20 21:10:07 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> okay I will explain with corn
<gary fullett> so the low
<gary fullett> is 240 area
<Capt.> well we had a situation where we had a good wyckoff chart it broke below support than rallied to the area of consolidation
<gary fullett> that is true
<gary fullett> capt
<Capt.> wel that is a spring as I understadnd it
<gary fullett> I will explainokay
<gary fullett> u r right but I will explain more fullly if u dont mind
<Zack> thanks
<Capt.> Sure I am the student
<gary fullett> so we have lows at 240
<gary fullett> u are knowledgable
<gary fullett> the highe at 280
User [Frank /63.160.52.181] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:12:18 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> if u draw the horizonatl line
<gary fullett> o suppport
<gary fullett> the market is trading between these 2 levels
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> and then the market breaks under 240
<gary fullett> and goes to lets say
<gary fullett> 235
<gary fullett> in most peoples minds theis a break thru
<gary fullett> and they sell
<gary fullett> but then the close is back above the 240 support
<gary fullett> line
<gary fullett> and it settles at lets say 241 and above
<gary fullett> so they sprung the 240 support but closed baove it
<gary fullett> this is called a spring
<Capt.> right
<gary fullett> it is designed to take out sell stops
<gary fullett> this spring generally will happen in 1 day
<gary fullett> but many times as rpring will happen in 2 days
<gary fullett> spring
<Capt.> and it did
<gary fullett> okay Zack
<Zack> Got it. What we used to call a shakeout.
<gary fullett> true in Hogs :)
<gary fullett> that is also called a shakeout
<gary fullett> but somtimes a shake out
User [wyatt /166.93.111.134] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:15:32 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> is just a penetration of support
<gary fullett> and not nec
<gary fullett> of horizonatl support
<gary fullett> so a spring generally has moredefinnded parameters
<gary fullett> if the market went above 280
<gary fullett> lets say 285
<Frank> a question about Stock market technique number one, which I finally found at Fraser books 1 877 996 3336when u can Gary?
<gary fullett> hi wyatt
<Capt.> did yiu look at the volume price went up but did it on weak volume -- you tought me that
<gary fullett> and then closed under 280
<gary fullett> this is called an "upthust"
<gary fullett> the opposite of a spring
<wyatt> hi Gary, everyone
<gary fullett> it is designed to catch the buy stops
<gary fullett> okay Frank please ask
<Frank> page 90 figure charting wycoff says you can use high low or close , which do u recommend?
User [Joe K /172.159.201.190] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:18:55 EDT 2000
<Zack> Thanks Gary that helps a lot.
<Joe K> Hey everyone
<Zack> Hi Joe
<Joe K> topic ?
<gary fullett> what do i mean
<gary fullett> frank
<wyatt> hi Joe K
<Frank> number one is the the best one
<gary fullett> undersatnd zack?
<Frank> what do i mwan?
<gary fullett> I cjhart the gigh low and the close
<Zack> So after a Sprng or an upthrust there will usuall be more consolidation?
<gary fullett> what do u mean
<gary fullett> charting high low close?
<gary fullett> generally yes zack
<gary fullett> if the market is strong the spring will lead to a rlly back to the top of the range
<Frank> on the figure chart on page 90 of stock market number one
<gary fullett> point and figure chart?
<gary fullett> frank?
<Frank> wycof did not use POINT, just figure
<Frank> and they work very well i might add
User [Guest /206.251.171.197] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:22:31 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> point and figure charts are very importnat to wyckoff
<gary fullett> they tell how far a move can go
<Frank> he just used figure, not point acording to the books i have read by him
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> I think both the high the low and the close are very important
<gary fullett> they tell how much techinical
<Frank> they work the same way but directly reference the quotes
<gary fullett> work has been done
<gary fullett> i understand frank
<gary fullett> I think they are all equally important
<gary fullett> to me
<Zack>
<gary fullett> because
<Frank> any way would you use the high the low or the close on the charts?
<gary fullett> the high represents demand
<gary fullett> the close
<gary fullett> I think high is important as it shows demand
<gary fullett> I am sorry
<gary fullett> I think high is important
<Frank> u can only use one number on an end of the day figure chart or for that matter a figure chart
<gary fullett> as it shows supply
<gary fullett> I know frank
<gary fullett> I am explaining
<gary fullett> about the high low close
<gary fullett> the high shows
<Frank> so would u use the hi low or close?
<gary fullett> what supply camme in at that level
<gary fullett> the low shows where demand came in
<gary fullett> and the close shows where value would be
<gary fullett> so I think the close is omportant
<gary fullett> Close
<Frank> RW you can use either the hi low or close, thanks so much Gary
<gary fullett> what would u use Frank?
<gary fullett> I look at it this way
<gary fullett> in an up market
<gary fullett> I am interested in the lows
<gary fullett> becasue that shows me where demadn should come in
<Frank> probably the close but perhapa the high if the trend was up or the low if the trend was down
<gary fullett> in the low is lower that shows supply enetering the market
<gary fullett> iin an uptrend
<gary fullett> it is important to see supply
<gary fullett> as long as supply
<gary fullett> or selling doesn come in
<gary fullett> the market will go up
<gary fullett> if u see selling
<gary fullett> or supply
<gary fullett> this could be a Sign of weakess
<gary fullett> so in an uptrend demand has proven itself
<gary fullett> so supply MUST come in
<Frank> what i am looking at is resistance points, and support points
<Zack>
<gary fullett> to undo the uptrend
<gary fullett> do u understand that class?
<Frank> for entry and close up trailing stops
<gary fullett> a market will go up until supply or selling comes in
<gary fullett> that is correct Frank
<gary fullett> I would likeI want to talk about a topic simiar to what frank mentioned
<Zack> Understand the principal. Ignorent oon point and figure charts
<Joe K>
<Frank> i also like the percents he uses to determine an up or down trend with. very cool. The crb shows too much that i do not care to trade.
<Capt.> k
<wyatt>
<gary fullett> I agree
<gary fullett> zack
<gary fullett> amos when he comes back will go into deetail on point and figure very important
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> a market will genrally
<gary fullett> go up
<Frank>
<gary fullett> till it has a buying climax
<gary fullett> so the trend will be up until u see some cliamtic action volume and price generally
<gary fullett> one never knows where the climaxes
User [Guest] left forum on Thu Jul 20 21:35:00 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> will occur
<gary fullett> ideally
<Capt.> we need very basic instructions on [oint and figure charts so that we can be proficent in their use
<gary fullett> the selling climax shuld go
<gary fullett> to an area
<gary fullett> of weekly or monthly support on a daily cliamx
<gary fullett> I kow capt and I will provide that :)
<gary fullett> will u keep on up if I talk on it?
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> a buying cliamx on a daily chart will go to resistance generally on a weekly and monthly chart
<gary fullett> that is why time frame is important
<gary fullett> on
<gary fullett> an intraday chart the selling climax will go to daily support
<gary fullett> do u undersatnd what I mean?
<wyatt> y
<Zack> y
<gary fullett> so if u sell a buying climax
<gary fullett> u r guessing to a great degree to where it can go
<gary fullett> but u can have a rough guestimate
<gary fullett> s the trick is if u dont have the deepest pockets
<gary fullett> it to wait for a climax
<gary fullett> lets say buying climax
<gary fullett> then the market will break
User [Guest /216.33.190.129] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:39:05 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> if the rettest
<gary fullett> is on light volume
<gary fullett> and smaller ranges
<gary fullett> SELL
<gary fullett> the retest
<gary fullett> the risk is low
<gary fullett> and most
<gary fullett> likely profitable
<gary fullett> I had a client
<gary fullett> today
<gary fullett> who sold the Nasdaq
<gary fullett> thinking he saw reisatnce and a selling climax
<gary fullett> when it sisnt do what he wanted
<gary fullett> didnt
<gary fullett> he lowered his stop
<gary fullett> and was stopped out with a small loss
<gary fullett> but he did identify ressiatnce
<gary fullett> and thought it was a BC
<gary fullett> so what did he do/
<gary fullett> he sold the retest
<gary fullett> and made all his losses plus priofit
<gary fullett> profit
<Capt.> got to go nite
<gary fullett> my point is
User [Capt.] left forum on Thu Jul 20 21:41:25 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> night capt
<Zack>
<Joe K>
<gary fullett> is it is an easier trade to sell the retest
<Frank>
<wyatt> nite capt
<gary fullett> becasue u can define risk
<gary fullett> the buying cliamx u really cant
<gary fullett> tell where it will stop
<gary fullett> with alot of accuracy
<gary fullett> but a retest is more defined
<gary fullett> do u understand this?
<Joe K> yes
<wyatt> yes
<gary fullett> selling a retest of the highs very effective
<Zack> yes. I assume same for selling climax
<gary fullett> buying retests of low effective
<gary fullett> yes zach
<gary fullett> the oposite is true
<gary fullett> why do I say buying retests of lows
<Frank>
<gary fullett> and selling retests of highs are important
<Zack> less risk--still profitable
<Joe K> because it reduces your risk to get long
<Joe K> or short
<Joe K> and confirms better entry
<Joe K> for greater results
<gary fullett> the CM will defend his postions
<gary fullett> so if he bought
<gary fullett> 220 in corn and it rallied to 230
<gary fullett> and he is long
<gary fullett> what do u think he will do at 220?
<gary fullett> buy again
<Joe K> you mean 230 ? sell
<gary fullett> that is why drawing horizontal lines are important
<Joe K> confused me there
<gary fullett> because they show support and resisatnce
<gary fullett> they show where demand should come in
<gary fullett> if the market is bought by the cm at 220
<gary fullett> and it rallies to 230
<gary fullett> I assume the cm will sell some of his longs
<gary fullett> but net he is long
<gary fullett> so when the market breaks back to 220 he will buy back the ones he sold at resisatnce
<Joe K> k
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> the cm when he builds a bullish postion
<gary fullett> he will buy breaks to support
<gary fullett> because he is long
<gary fullett> he creates demadn
<gary fullett> at support
<gary fullett> that is why u MUST try to identify
<gary fullett> the strenghth and weakess of the day week month
<gary fullett> or even intraday
<gary fullett> today in the nasdaq
<Frank>
<Frank>
<Frank>
<gary fullett> the market showed demand all day long
<gary fullett> so at support it was biught by the cm
<gary fullett> the trend was up it showed demand
<gary fullett> so the Cm support his long position
<gary fullett> so it important to identify Demand
<gary fullett> if bullish
<gary fullett> because once the CM shows u demand
<gary fullett> he doesnt just show u supply
<gary fullett> markets just dont change trend in a day
<gary fullett> sometimes the cm will show demand
<gary fullett> then break the amrket hard to shake out longs
<gary fullett> as he doesnt like compnay
<gary fullett> a market that comes to mind to me now is coffee
<Zack> Would't you see this in the volume?
<gary fullett> U do
<gary fullett> coffee rallied to 122 the other day
<gary fullett> and volume was heavy
<gary fullett> what does this mean
<gary fullett> the cm saw that the public
<gary fullett> was getting to long
<gary fullett> so what did he do
<gary fullett> he dropped it hard
<gary fullett> if coffee is bullish these levels will hold
User [Mark /206.117.248.123] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:55:24 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> u see this in both price action and volume
<gary fullett> zack
<gary fullett> please note
<gary fullett> wyckoff was a great beliver in Price action AND volume
<gary fullett> welocme Mark
<Mark> <Enter Text Here>good evening
<gary fullett> if u see a mrket ralllting on light volume
<gary fullett> this should be a sign
<gary fullett> that soemthing may be wrong
<gary fullett> and the rally is of poor quality
<gary fullett> sometimes u can see the CM tracks
<gary fullett> by noticing
<gary fullett> that volume and price action dont jive
<Zack> Got it.
<gary fullett> so it is very important
User [Name already in use /166.93.111.124] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 21:57:46 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> to look for demand
<gary fullett> at support
<gary fullett> at resisatnce look for supply or selling
<gary fullett> the cm will wear and tear u
<gary fullett> he will frustrate u by
<gary fullett> keeping a market in a trading range
<gary fullett> and chop u up as u think it will break out
<gary fullett> silver is an example of this
<gary fullett> it has been in arange for 5 months
<gary fullett> but when it moves
<gary fullett> it will move BIG time
<Zack> agree
<gary fullett> please remeber the longer sideways
<gary fullett> the largr the move
<gary fullett> I mentioend gold
<gary fullett> may have a had a sc at 278
<gary fullett> but I thought it may teest 276
<gary fullett> but 278 is support as well
<gary fullett> and it reated
<gary fullett> well today
<gary fullett> so we will see
<gary fullett> Fridays are important days
<gary fullett> do u know why?
<Joe K> and then he will sell from higher at a better price as wellso we buy the retest there in gold ?
<Joe K> Dissregard
<Joe K> So we buy retest in Gold Gary ?
<gary fullett> I think gold at the 2750278 area
<gary fullett> should be bought with a stop
<Zack> Volume was low today (Gold)
<gary fullett> fridays closes are important for 2 reasons
<gary fullett> 1)
<gary fullett> yes it was zack and that is why i think 276 may be retested
<gary fullett> friday shows a daily chart
<gary fullett> as well as it paints the WEEKLY chart
<gary fullett> next Friday is very important
<gary fullett> as it will show the Monthly
<gary fullett> chart daily chart
<gary fullett> and WEEKLY
<gary fullett> chart
<gary fullett> so please watch the time frames of charts
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> let me explain to u the role of the cm
<gary fullett> he will establish a postion
<gary fullett> he 'Knows" what the news will be
<gary fullett> but he needs the News
<gary fullett> to eventually to support his position
<gary fullett> how do we try to track what he :knows:
<gary fullett> with both volume and price action
User [Nagual /209.214.0.165] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 22:06:23 EDT 2000
<Zack> hi Nagual
<gary fullett> we cant change news it happens
<gary fullett> but we can track the CM
<Nagual> <Enter Text Here>good evening ,late but you knew it
<gary fullett> so we must watch what his intentioned are
<gary fullett> welcome to the morning class Nagual :)
<gary fullett> unr excused u wrote a note :)
<gary fullett> but as I have mentioned the Cm doesnt like
<gary fullett> company
<Joe K> hey nagual
<Nagual> yes Mr. fullet
<gary fullett> so he tries to disquise his moves
<gary fullett> and he does this
<gary fullett> by buy and selling and causing volitity
<gary fullett> so u the public gets confused
<gary fullett> he can buy a market and a large loss
<gary fullett> knowing in 2 months
<gary fullett> he will reap the rewards
<gary fullett> but in order for a amrket to make a large move
<gary fullett> 2 things must happen
<Name already in use>
<gary fullett> the CM HAS HIS POSITION on
<Zack> Wannabee a CM :)
<gary fullett> and then he times this
<gary fullett> move to pending news
<gary fullett> get lots of cash zack
<gary fullett> and savy
<gary fullett> and learn wyckoff ;)
<Zack> Have to sell my box of crackerjacks
<Nagual>
<gary fullett> how can grains rally
<gary fullett> yet
<gary fullett> if the news is so bearish
<gary fullett> and no cause has been built
<Mark> on low volume today?
<Joe K> Cm will seek out Demand
<gary fullett> but I think he is accumaulting
<gary fullett> but he needs time
<gary fullett> and then when he has
<gary fullett> his postion on I guareentee u he will Move the market
<gary fullett> so if u see a sharp rally in grains this will be the AR
<gary fullett> or automatic rally
<gary fullett> then a retest should be bought
<gary fullett> there is little cause iin the grians now
<gary fullett> remeber last week I mentioined beans
<gary fullett> and I mentioned that everyone was bearish
<gary fullett> that 450 was support
<gary fullett> but I thought they would spring
<gary fullett> it to the 443-440 area?
<Joe K> yes
<Name already in use> y
<gary fullett> well it went there took out the sell stops
<gary fullett> and has rallied since
<gary fullett> several climnts were long at the 450 area
<gary fullett> and the stop was 442 3 /4
<gary fullett> whew :)
<gary fullett> clients
<gary fullett> so sometimes underatnding markets action and behaviour
<Mark> mine was at 430 :(
<gary fullett> and the intention of the CM is critical
<gary fullett> 430 is good:)
<gary fullett> never went there
<Mark> november
<gary fullett> if u take a step back and understand what the market is saying
<gary fullett> u can underatnd the cm behavior
<gary fullett> but if u look at one day and get caught up emotionally
<Nagual>
<gary fullett> U will NOT SUCEED
<Zack>
<gary fullett> that takes me to coffee
<gary fullett> the CM say that the volume was heavy
<Joe K> gary so that second visit lower was a retest in beans
<gary fullett> at the 111-120 area
<gary fullett> yes Joe
<Mark> tell me, was the tick size in beans today indicate low volume in beans?
<Joe K> mad at you
<gary fullett> the cm saw thw public getting long
<Joe K> lol
<Mark> right
<Mark>
<gary fullett> so what did he do he made sure that thre small spec are out
<Joe K> shake it
<gary fullett> volume was noot great in beans today\
<gary fullett> reiestance 467 then 474
<Mark> thought so
<Joe K> sell, make em jump out
User [Frank /63.160.52.181] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 22:20:18 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> trend is down on beans
<gary fullett> so reiestance should be should
<gary fullett> but this is the AR
<gary fullett> so if the amrket turns up
<gary fullett> buy the retest
<Joe K> retestof what point now
<gary fullett> 450 area
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> I thought coffee wuld hold the 10320 area
<Zack>
<gary fullett> but it wouldnt have suprised me if they took it under a psychlocal
<gary fullett> level at 98 area
<Nagual>
<gary fullett> knowing that 94-96 was previous ice now support
<gary fullett> so the Cm made sure they weak longs are out
<gary fullett> if u bought coffe on the opening on that big gap day up
<gary fullett> the bst u would have bought is at 114
<Joe K> some weak longs got in on that ! lol
<gary fullett> u were rewarded
<gary fullett> when the close was 11905
<gary fullett> but the weaker longs would mow be out
<gary fullett> ay 9700
<gary fullett> because that is a 17 cent loss
<gary fullett> mot many people can sustain that
<gary fullett> so I would say that the cm killed the shorts killed the longs
<gary fullett> and now can take it the way the trend is
<gary fullett> and to me it is up
<gary fullett> remeber when I told u earlier
<gary fullett> markets tests and retest previous area
<gary fullett> ?
<Joe K> yes
<gary fullett> well I would imagine that coffee
<gary fullett> will retest the 1220126 area
<gary fullett> that is what the CM does he tests and retest
<gary fullett> and he sees where demadn and supply
<gary fullett> is
<gary fullett> he sees where the funds and public will participate
<gary fullett> he doesnt care about money lost
<gary fullett> because he KNOWS he will profit
<gary fullett> u cant control fudamental news
<gary fullett> thye happen
<gary fullett> but u can track VOLUME and price action
User [LaTEComer /172.159.195.128] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 22:26:21 EDT 2000
<Zack>
<gary fullett> and how the big oys the CM reacts to it
<gary fullett> if ther eis bullish news
<gary fullett> and the market doesnt go up
<LaTEComer>
<gary fullett> who do u think is selling it?
<gary fullett> The CM
<gary fullett> if bullish news doesnt attract buyers the CM sees this
<gary fullett> he is not going to buy just because he Thinks:
<gary fullett> it is going up
<Nagual>
<gary fullett> he buys 'KNOWING the market is going up
<gary fullett> when the CM say too many longs in coffee what did he do?
<gary fullett> he sold
<gary fullett> easirly
<gary fullett> easily
<LaTEComer>
<gary fullett> it is easy to get a great fill when u sell in a rising market
<gary fullett> and buy in a dclining market
<gary fullett> I will give u another tip
<gary fullett> on how u can track the CMs intention
<gary fullett> it is really not wyckoff per se
<gary fullett> but the cm creates this
<gary fullett> it is use of spreads
<Frank>
<Frank>
<gary fullett> and options
<LaTEComer>
<gary fullett> the day where coffee was up 1800 points
<gary fullett> the call spreads in the 105-110 call spread lost money
<gary fullett> why? how an that be
<gary fullett> because the smart trader knew coffee was breaking
<gary fullett> and it broke 22 cents
<gary fullett> today call spreads in cooffee held up well
<gary fullett> this to me indicates bullishness
<gary fullett> lessser margin requirements
<gary fullett> in option and futures spreads
<gary fullett> so u need to watch this as well
<gary fullett> sometimes in a bullish market the CM will break thr market hard to discourage
<gary fullett> buyers
<Nagual>
<gary fullett> and they will do this quickly
<gary fullett> why>?
<Zack>
<gary fullett> it is because they are bulllish
<gary fullett> and never liks to lose money even though they dont care
<gary fullett> shorterm
<gary fullett> so they break it hard discourage buyers
<gary fullett> then rally sharply
<gary fullett> but if they want to mark up
<gary fullett> prices
<gary fullett> rally them
<gary fullett> they will discourage buyers for ads long as possible
<gary fullett> if cooffee closes weak tomorrow how many longs do u think will go home long
<gary fullett> Not many i bet
<gary fullett> except smart money to me
<gary fullett> does this makes sense to u
<gary fullett> and thier role
<gary fullett> one must see the whole forest and not just the trees
<Mark> veery much
<gary fullett> it may seem like a bearish day
<gary fullett> nut longer term very bullish
<Nagual> whyn they dont like company?
<gary fullett> coffee low 8400
<gary fullett> high 120
<gary fullett> we are in a range
<gary fullett> develpoing cause
<gary fullett> for the next mark up phase
User [Name already in use /166.93.111.124] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 22:36:34 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> shy pople nagual :)
<gary fullett> becaus eif they have too many longs
<gary fullett> who is is there sellng the market?
<Zack>
<gary fullett> he wants to markt up price for a long time before he alerts the funds
<gary fullett> and public
<gary fullett> the longe he waits and not alarms them
<gary fullett> the more profgit he will make when the funds start buying
<LaTEComer>
<gary fullett> if the public gets wind of it he must sell to discourage
<gary fullett> them
<gary fullett> markets ALWAYS turn bearish
<gary fullett> after good news
<gary fullett> always turn bullish when News is breaish
<gary fullett> bearish
<Nagual> contrarian
<gary fullett> it is the reaction:
<gary fullett> that we MUST identify
<gary fullett> if a market is bearish
User [joe k /172.140.52.17] joined forum on Thu Jul 20 22:39:32 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> that means that supply or selling
<gary fullett> has been occurring right
<joe k> bumped
<Zack> What if no news? Accumulation?
<gary fullett> what will cause this to turn around
<gary fullett> I said it eailer
<joe k> topic ?
<gary fullett> DEMAND wiill turn around a bearish
<gary fullett> market
<Mark> perceived demand?
<gary fullett> and supply or selling will turn around a bullish marketYes zack
<gary fullett> he will bide his time
<gary fullett> till he can associated an up move with "bullish news :
<gary fullett> he cant run up hill
<gary fullett> so he will not mark it up
<gary fullett> till he can
<Frank>
<gary fullett> make sure other will push it up with him
<gary fullett> based on some bullish news
<gary fullett> can grainds get any more bearish
<gary fullett> to me I loom for a trend change
<gary fullett> look
<gary fullett> it may be awhile
<gary fullett> but i am looking for it
<Mark> 2 to 3 weeks?
<gary fullett> maybe
<gary fullett> I think that may be good
<gary fullett> we may be in an AR now
<gary fullett> so the retest could be very interesting
<Mark> hope so
<Nagual>
<gary fullett> I think u r having an AR and will retest first before a sustained up move
<LaTEComer>
<Name already in use>
<gary fullett> so knowing the intentions of the CM is critical
<gary fullett> and we know this by price action and volume
<gary fullett> can we be wrong YES
<Mark> get all the longs out?
<gary fullett> does the CM lose monry YES
<gary fullett> yes oin the retest mark
<Nagual> because he did not sell it all at the top?
<gary fullett> dont let emotions dictate your trading
<joe k> question
<gary fullett> the CM alwass buys support
<gary fullett> an sells resisatnce
<gary fullett> he doesnt buy rallies
<gary fullett> that is the funds and publics role
<gary fullett> okay Joe
<Mark> lol
<joe k> in coffee is it significant, that we came back to a support level
<joe k> that was above older support
<joe k> and why
<joe k> 96 instead of 90
<Mark> that is why you have said coffee in in an uptrend now, rising support?
<gary fullett> yes marke
<Zack>
<gary fullett> and it showed demand
<joe k> thats what Im driving at
<gary fullett> from low 80 ;s till 120
<Mark> I'm still in futures 1a, bear with me
<gary fullett> this could br the AR from 80 to 120
<Nagual> so rising suport will next will be 10350?
<gary fullett> noe it i just a retest to go hihger
<gary fullett> mark please ask
<gary fullett> whatever u wish
<gary fullett> I amin futures 1 B
<Mark> tks
<gary fullett> dont be shy
<LaTEComer>
<joe k> nagual, i think rising supportwas like today, tested 96, went back up
<gary fullett> well i think 94-96 is very signicant in coffee
<joe k> went through it a tad
<joe k> but went back up
<gary fullett> so i think that if the market is in an uptrend this levels will be defended by the CM
<gary fullett> today was discouring for longs huh
<Nagual> I mean afterretest the higs nnext time ,next suport rising will be 10350?
<gary fullett> it takes alot to buy a falling market
<gary fullett> I think 104=106 now is key reisatnce now
<joe k> hopefully it will be higher than 96
<gary fullett> then 114
<gary fullett> then 122
<gary fullett> then 126
<Zack>
<LaTEComer>
<gary fullett> so i think if one wnats to be long coffee it is from these lvels
<gary fullett> this is Kety tome
<gary fullett> is it possible thjat cofffee will retest th low 80s?
<joe k> yes
<Mark> that woud seem to negate the uptrend theory
<joe k> cm longer term bullish
<gary fullett> will that just be a retest of suppirt?
<gary fullett>
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> longer term bullish scheme
<Mark> ahaa
<gary fullett> do i think they will
<gary fullett> No i dont
<joe k> no
<joe k> lol
<gary fullett> so longer term bullish
<gary fullett> and I think these levels hold
<gary fullett> question is am i long?
<gary fullett> huh?
<joe k> nope
<Zack>
<Mark> not yet?
<joe k> lol
<gary fullett> yes I am I bought today
<Nagual> me too
<joe k> Youve been long
<gary fullett> adding to prevuious longs as I hedge longs from the 116 area
<Nagual> so diid i from 11450
<gary fullett> i never like to talk positions here
<joe k> I think ya both should give me a long, then we'd be close to even
<joe k> :)
<gary fullett> u can have nagual fom 11450
<joe k> lol
<gary fullett> and he can buy lower :)
<gary fullett> I think Monday will prove very interesting
<gary fullett> it is possible
<joe k> I think tomorrow will be nice
<gary fullett> that they keep the market
<gary fullett> underresure and explode net week
<joe k> true
<gary fullett> or close at higher but noit high enough to attract buyer for thr wekend and explode
<Nagual> take one from him at 116 and one of mine at 11450 average 11525
<gary fullett> :)
<joe k> lol
<LaTEComer>
<gary fullett> I hedge a long from there with option Nagual i didnt buy there
<joe k> gee thanks guys
<gary fullett> but I covered that shart xcall today
<Zack> So would a decent spread be aroun 130--150?
<gary fullett> 110 120
<joe k> dec maybe Zack
<joe k> i like lower
<Nagual> ok
<gary fullett> NEVER buy far OTM oprions
<gary fullett> OTM out of the money
<gary fullett> try to buy near the money if u can
<Mark> why?
<gary fullett> Imknow money is an issue but OTM are overpriced relatibe to ATM
<joe k> make more
<gary fullett> atm at the money
<Mark> got it
<gary fullett> u want an option to act like a future
<gary fullett> asap
<Zack> k
<gary fullett> in the pit they buy at the money and sell more OTM
<Mark> isn't the risk/reward better OTM?
<gary fullett> but if u have a large count
<gary fullett> u can buy further otm options so the move will help u
<gary fullett> No it isnt
<Mark> k
<Frank>
<gary fullett> 90 percrent of option expire worhtless
<gary fullett> becasue buy the wrong one
<LaTEComer>
<gary fullett> yes maoney wise atm is more exp
<gary fullett> money
<LaTEComer> Sell OTM
<Name already in use>
<gary fullett> but will give u a better chance to make money
<gary fullett> yes late
<Mark> got it
<gary fullett> example did u know that the coffee 250 call yesterday closed at 500 dollars
<gary fullett> with 19 days left
<gary fullett> out rangues
<gary fullett> spelling wow
<joe k> volatility
<gary fullett> coffe has been to 270 I think only 2 times in their history
<gary fullett> not a good one to buy
<Mark> seems darn high
<gary fullett> very
<gary fullett> the 170 call was trading at 700 poins
<Mark> what about, say, 160?
<gary fullett> 2 days ago
<gary fullett> I will tell u this
<gary fullett> I dont know who it is
<gary fullett> but there are amny buyers
<gary fullett> of the 170 calls in coffee
<gary fullett> I dont know why
<joe k> Id be one of em
<gary fullett> well i think I do but,,,,
<Mark> cm
<gary fullett> yep
<Nagual> that is bullish sign
<gary fullett> to me it is
<gary fullett> shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> questions?
<joe k> because when coffee gets volatile the little accounts play at those levels
<gary fullett> I still hav e to do my charts tonight
<gary fullett> hmmm
<gary fullett> any questions on anything wyckoff
<gary fullett> or in genral
<Mark> livestock?
<LaTEComer> What chart are we looking at? symbol
<Mark> reports out tomorrow.......
<Mark> any thoughts?
<gary fullett> cattlr has resisatce at 6900
<Mark> seasonal should be a sign to short at?
<Mark> right
<gary fullett> bellies can go to 09
<gary fullett> after this rally i would sell at ice
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> no charts late
<Mark> ok
<gary fullett> ye i know I traded in the meats pit
<gary fullett> 90
<gary fullett> so i am well aware
<LaTEComer> What coffe chart have you been talking about. I want to look it up
<gary fullett> sept
<Mark> looking for another repeat of last summers sell off in pork in general?
<gary fullett> yep
<LaTEComer> What about shortEuro?
<gary fullett> boring
<Mark> lol
<Mark> francs?
<gary fullett> but yes I think they have reisstance here
<gary fullett> euro dollar?
<gary fullett> or euro curriency?
<LaTEComer> sept coffee that'd be COQ0 ?
<gary fullett> Frank is here :)
<gary fullett> kc u0
<LaTEComer> EC
<gary fullett> or cf u on soe systems
<LaTEComer> thanks
<gary fullett> oh the euro
<gary fullett> I think that the crriecies are still bearish
<gary fullett> the yen has suport a t 9300
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<Mark> not here......thanks much
<gary fullett> otherwise I will leave u tonight so I can do charts
<Zack> Gary, can we look at Sugar next week
<gary fullett> great ,, have a greta night see u allon monday
<Mark> good night
<joe k> thanks gary
<gary fullett> yes we can look for a BC here in sugar around 1060
<LaTEComer> c ya thanks
<gary fullett> thank u all
User [Mark] left forum on Thu Jul 20 23:11:16 EDT 2000
<Zack> Thanks Gary. Get some sleep
User [Zack] left forum on Thu Jul 20 23:11:37 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> good nigh all
<gary fullett> i will
<joe k> night gary
<Nagual> tks gary nite
User [Nagual] left forum on Thu Jul 20 23:13:03 EDT 2000
User [joe k] left forum on Thu Jul 20 23:13:14 EDT 2000
User [gary fullett] left forum on Thu Jul 20 23:14:34 EDT 2000