User [gary fullett /172.138.139.51] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 20:56:28 EDT 2000 User [Capt /24.93.31.193] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 20:58:08 EDT 2000 User [lmarsh /12.14.197.181] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 20:58:20 EDT 2000 hi gary and lmarsh hello good people good evening i will be with u all in a few minutes i hve to place a few orders ok k User [mrj /206.251.171.112] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 20:59:56 EDT 2000 hey mrJ mrj Hey hello Gary, lmarsh, Capt mrj I wanted to tell you that I did follow your advice and go to the archives a couple of weeks ago as you suggested---Thanks takes some doing to get through just take is slow and easy :) good evening I am back I m sorry How's the deck coming along I want to point out a chart that was also pointed out today by someone who goes to class decking is done working on rails enjoy more work then I thought : ) it's worth it I thought it would be a project that wuld be eaiser and more enjoyable the deck will be a nice place for my office when it is done :) or when i am bad you'll enjoy doing it more the next time :) User [Zack /207.168.128.12] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 21:05:10 EDT 2000 hi Zack the chart that I wanted to point out is the coper chart big move but I will be sending this chart tomorrow night yes accumaultion resistance at the 8550 area but we will go in detail tomorrow it is a nice wyckoff chart good evening zach and welcome please ask whatever question you like Hello all, Joe K sent me joe k sent u and he isnt here :) but that is okay you are welcome anytime he's at ino welcom Zack we are here Mon-thur at 8pm welcome zack centeral time hi Zack yes thank u Capt okay did u watch coffee? y y I mentioned this chart last week and I said that the 9000 was good support that the market hd ice resisatnce at the 103 area and support at 90 what I want to point out to you is that if u followed the News which we dont do it would have really chopped u up the Cm doesnt like company CM is composite man and he is the culmination of all the great minds the George Soros merriyl Lybch cargil ect.. so he cause s this volitile range to make the bulls and bears lose money before he starts his campaign but if u follow support and resistance u should have never got out as u know I am bullish coffee and have been long options from the mid 80 area this is monthly support and the daily action showed support last Monday User [Joe K /172.145.106.173] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 21:12:12 EDT 2000 but once u see demand strenghth u just dont undo it hey joe Hey everyone the stenghth in coffee last week kept geting bumped was demand User [wyatt /166.93.111.144] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 21:12:51 EDT 2000 topic ? and was a situation where the market looks like cofee hi wyatt thanks it will begin an uptrend so watch this market it is a very volitile market ao please be careful with it do u have a question on coffee? yes please ask what did I miss hi mrj , everyone..hope everyone had a great day !! lol u missed the talk on coffee Please move on, Im not wanting to hold anything up Joe how do u see cofffee? i am moving on Bullish I was just asking if anyone had a question Demand present oky I want to mentioned couple other markets I dont do this yesterday but these markets may moove tomorrow before I talk on them and I dont want u to miss a potiential moves if it happens before I talk about it then I would like to talk wyckoff withoput charts silver I believe has been undergoing accumaltion and if the market an get a close above 508 I think the market will go to 532 523 that is the last 2 weeks high was 508 so please watch this gold as well copper has reisatnce at 8550 look for the market to get to this level if On light volume wait for a pullback it may jump over the creek not this time but soon this market has some nice accumaltion cotton has shown strenghth from support needs more cause to go much higher but this market shows demand agree cotton may be interesting later nice distribution in the energies to me I want to give u all asynopis on monday so we can track these markets that look wyckoffish to m to me I think On monday i will mention to u markets that look close okay>? yes lmarsh I like that! great so on monday u will get what i think for the week mondays previews and we can review the charts tus wed thur that way if a amrkets moves and we dont discuss it in class on tuesday u will know my thoughts but not all :) sounds like a good plan ok : ^) look for BC in sugar okay i want to mention grains very interesting charts did anyone watch them today? yes beans like a hawk okay does anyone have a commnet on them before I mention them corn going to zero,......well maybe close to it?? User [Frank /63.160.52.179] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 21:23:32 EDT 2000 Hey Frank hey Frank well you could call their actions the way you would call a race if you where a handicapper :)lol what does that mena Capt? mean? hi mr j we know that the cm isn't going to let this market get to far away from 450 hi Frank didn't see u come in looking at charts why capt every day he keeps bring it back to that area hi wyatt interesting thought maybe he is building cause to go much lower zach u may not understand now but I will help fill in the blanks okay? he is waiting for the next bit of news that he can use to make a large profit that is the way I call it O.K. either way we know that he is reading for somethng okay I thougt today was prety significant in what way? what has been lacking for a long time here? I will explain Demand right supply has shown up for 2 months it is demand that must prove itself correct? y y agree okay this grinding lowe lower and this wear and tear on longs it pretty frustrating the funds get shorter ad the public can sell at any price and make money correct? yes, or looks that way they will continue to sell until something twll them to cover is there any piece of bullish news in the amrket? market' nope what is the ingreadient for a rally none negative action we have that indeed now as wemntiioned the 450 area was critical Mr J mentioned that 446 1/2 a spring below 446 1/4 was support I mentioned that we could get a sring to the 443-440 area spring the markets action to me is saying there are litle buyers and when the buyer back away the market preaks the market spent most of its day at lower levels the high today was 453 the close was 448 1/2 so a 5 cent rally ans we wioe away all the shorts who sold today correct? would you consider that there are few sellers as well good question Mr j I hink that the market doesnt really needs to many sellers for it to go lower agree a market will fall on its own weight and this market is bearish so if a buyer backs away the amrket breask 3 cents there is that gravity thing again but today the market to me fulfilled a level where everyone thought it would go 45o and they even went 7 centsuinder that so any stops under 450 were taken out but it didnt seem cliamtic to me today So are we to look for the final shake out now? but if the CM sees that there arent willing sellers he will create Demand this will cause a massive sgort overing rally covering key areas 474 then 505 but do u see what i mean by the lack of supply as well as the lack of demand? I would venture today tomorrow will be an up day the market did work at lower levels this market will not turn around untill there is demand present and so far not much dmand but my exp tells me that they are close most people think 400 is a give yes I haven't got my charts for today yet but if you watched the action today the lazy way the market retuned to the 448 area shows this and 160 corn as well correct capt the public buys on a rising market when u have targets like this generally they arnt hit that is correct and the CM buys a breaking or lower market so if the market trades above 453 so we know whose been buying :) poeple who sold today will cover I think that is correct mr J so watch the market this week especially tomorrow for demand it may not happen but I think it is close questions on any market I mentioned as well as the grains I will be sending this chart tomorrow k I want to talk on wyckoff abit as I mentioned before it is about trends ok,great listen to what I say User [mrj /209.16.79.199] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 21:44:24 EDT 2000 even though i am guilty of not doing hjat I say as well the trend is your friend :) is an old adage :) as u get olderinto trading u relaize thi this EVERY till the end:) trader makes the mistake of bucking the trend because most times u never know what the trend is becausae intraday could be different than daily could be differnt than weekly and weekly doiff rent from monthly so the time frame matters with trend underdstand? yes y y k y so a great bear market could have sharply daily rallies or intraday rallies now some may say but gary when u buy a selling climax u r bucking the trend? I will go into this Wyckoff was a trend follower the cm accumaltes or distributes a postion long or short he buys breaks sells rallies when he has his position he makes a a campaign along with the "news: and then the funds then the public joins in so he buysin a down market and sells in an up market when the market has had it climax and not before as a net position let me clean this up lets take grains market is bearish the CM doesnt sell these breaks he already has a short postion from long ago it is very easy to buy a amrket when it is a bear market u get your price so when the market is ina downtrend supply overtakes demand the cm buys this break as he cover his short postion during the Selling climax he will buy his shorts back in then the marrket will have an automatic rally then a retest of the SC it is during the retest and during the subsequesnt trading range that the CM oges from a short postion to a long position understand? questions? i follow got ya okay during this trading range what is the trend of the market? range....sideways sideways, but technically still a bear market? correct lmarsh Gary he must be using computers to keep track of all this correct? the range is sideways wyatt but techincally we havent made higher high so the tre nd is down like coffee i get it :) I am sure he can afford computers :) wyatt u r right but lmarsh more correct:) so cofffee trend is down but to a wyckoff studnet the low 80's was monthly support the 'news: was bearish the SCoccurered SC then DEamdn took over this is the level the grains may soon be at the demand last week in cofffee lead to todays rally so TECHINICALLY the market is down in cofffee but I would be short as a wyckoff student wouldnt it may break but to me that is bucking the trend yet to most poeple the trend is still down !!!!! to a wyckoff student when u see demand after a SC the trend is up this works in all time frames so do u see whta I mena abiut differnt trends wyckoff foolowed trends but after a BC buyign aclimax or SC selling climax to wyckoff the trend changed it will go into a trading range and this trading range is builiding cause though tech bearish afer the SC to wyckoff vry bullish after accumaltion:) do u follow me about trend yes yes it may seem that I may buck a trend like coffe y y but actaully i saw soemthing that was wyckoffish not a word :) wyckoffish that is why I am very sensitive to demand like the Grains may be bearish news the market grudengly goes down the CM may see this and create demand does this make sense y it is unique to wyckoff i htinkk it alloows u to look at the amrket the way it should be with Demand supply strenghth and weakness every bucks the trend as I said please minimize this to u see a SC or BC or some demand or supplt come it Ying and Yang! it takes time and lost money to relieze this about trend I can say it preach it but u all will do the opposite how do i know I do after 20 yrs too as I said please minimize this as much as apossible until u see strenghth in a down amrket weakness in a up market coffee is an example of thei this as I said questions on trend we will go over many many examples qestions comments?? how can we see the length of a trend that has just turned like in coffee ? great good points, always good to reiterate(spell) I know u may think of trend as higher lows and higher highs and it is but ui can see trend change well before htis u have to look at monthly charts wekelies charts User [Zack /207.168.128.12] joined forum on Mon Jul 17 22:08:07 EDT 2000 to see how long or sustained the mve can be to me 120 in december as I mentioned last week is reasonable trend to a wyckoff student is differnt than most other people is my main point so what for cliamtic action if a sellling climax look for demand as that has to prove itself in an up market it is supply that must prove itself so look for a buying cliamx This is measured by volume? got to go, hope all have a good tuesday. thanks all,..nite night lamarsh yes zach User [lmarsh] left forum on Mon Jul 17 22:10:22 EDT 2000 by volume in part as wellas PRICE action both price action AND volume k good question Gary i am having a hard time with this volume thing...In that i have been led to understand that it is a day late so is the histogram on the bottom of the chart off by a day or do we just accept it as is? I understand how volume works just the data I question what do u mean u question the data? u can get a rough idea odf volume during the day by tick data well if the histogram isee today is from yesterday how do I resolve this? well to get accuarate volume yes u have to wait till the next day but u can get a rough guestimate on ticj volume intraday volume is relative to the area or time frame u look at it ok I can accept that just wanted to make sure I was on the right page okay great I can give u tick data intraday if u wish u can get this with real quotes he thinks it doesnt correspond to the exact move maybe. I don't get that as I watch the day go by right now u can call the exchange after the close and they will give u estimated volume when on the floor u cansee estimated volume do u lmopw how estomated volume is calculated? know no wujld u like to know? anyone? y k every market yes has a minimum price tick in corn from 1/4 to 1/2 right? k like 210 1/4 then 210 1/2 the exchange will assign a guestimated volume in corn it may be 2 k so if corn goes from 210 1/4 to 210 1/2 sorry guys. the thunderstorm is back, need to shut down, see you all tomorrow :) the volume is guesstimated at 2k if itgoes from 210 to 210 3/4 that is another 2 k User [wyatt] left forum on Mon Jul 17 22:20:23 EDT 2000 then back to 210 1/2 it is another 2k understand so we moved 3 ticks yes with 6 k in volume in bonds a min tick can be 10k in bellies it could be 20 so every market is assigned a volume with a tick move that is how u can get a gustimated volume and it is close so when u see rapid ticks u can assume volume is heavy questions on volume? ok that helps good.. would long bars on a 5 min chart give the same indication quote.com show a volume figure. Where does this come from? gary so i keep adding these ticks up even in a 3 point range the volume keeps moving up ? to a degree yes k from tick volume zach i would imagine as long as im going back and forth im counting or adding more ? yes Joe yep k cool i dont know quote .com if it is accuarate though zach it could be. gary: would you consider coffee's recent up move an AR? Why or why not? www.quote.com by Lycos. Run 30min delayed-free yes I would Mr j so then I could look at the contracts, and roughly sub-divide the open interest why? I hink the market will consoldate and head hoigher market held support at 8300 you talking about AR today, or a few days ago ? this was the selling climax to me at support a few days ago it was Joe yes yes the move from 8300 to 103 to me was the reaction from monthly support after the selling climax Where would you call Preliminary Support? so it qulifies as an AR June 30 when the market went from 90 to, 8650 what about june 21 the SC was on july 7 agree on SC note volume of 6-21 yes supply came in on that day and closed on the low so I would say supply came in there but that could have been th saytrt of it range now is 90 to 103, ICE at 94-96 and ICE at 103 ok that area was about 90 as well 9300-8950 so that area to me is whn the Cm get long sometimes the preliamry support may take place over a few days or a week the SC can take several days as well cover shorts and got long I think since coffee was so bearish the area from june 20 -the end of junes was an area the cm got long grains could take several days to cliamx as well ideally prelimary support happens in 1 dy SCone day but many times it will take several days good observation Mr J You mentioned Silver and Gold earlier. Could you touch on them a little? I like to touch silver and gold :) Zack is a Metal Head ! :) lol I think both are underaccumaultion bullish and need to seem demand and silver has resistance last 2weeks highs Yup, and an old fart too:) at th 508 level just teasing Zack so if demand comes in and silver coses above 508 I think we can rally 15 cnts gold went to support at the 280 area and racted well I know Joe:);) so they couild go up too I will be sending this chart tomorrow night Gary I wil be going over copper meatlas grains tomorrow Great. Thanks Gary niteGary I am telling u that metals look freindly to me and silver 508 is crtical to me Zack didnt you tell me about Silver movement ? I hpe it help zach any other qquestins? Siver has made a nice triangle (non-Wyckoff) since it's 495 low Yes Joe. Gold looks to have better support at the moment though. I think Zack was telling me something earlier that Silver can spike up real quick and come down real quick sach i would agree with that I didnt know never traded it does that make u bullish or bearish mr J? perhaps imediate stop tightening is needed zach sorry nither It's symmetrical so one doesn't know until it happens neither k thanx im just wanting to know what to expect if its usually fast any other quetions? yes volume has moved up though last few days of up move otherwise I willc all it a night and see u all tomorrow that may mean demand :) k joe y Gary can we retrace to the 82 mark in coffee and still be accumulating ? good night everypone gn nitre Frank User [Frank] left forum on Mon Jul 17 22:42:24 EDT 2000 yes we can User [mrj] left forum on Mon Jul 17 22:42:31 EDT 2000 User [Capt] left forum on Mon Jul 17 22:42:32 EDT 2000 and it it ent to 82 and held means more cuase more bullish ok longer sdeways longer the move :) what if it went lower poss spring k i think the trend is up so i look to buy support k :) :) zach it was nice meeting u I hope uwill join us again thank u have a great night all see u tomorrow :) night gary Thanks for having me. And thanks Joe K for inviting me anytime bud thanx good night u r elcome anytime User [gary fullett] left forum on Mon Jul 17 22:44:44 EDT 2000