User [gary fullett /172.138.227.134] joined forum on Mon Jul 10 21:09:13 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I am so sorry I am late
<mrj> I sent it this afternoon
<mrj> hi Gary
<gary fullett> I had to help a neighbor
<Jimbo> hey Gary
<mrj> growing grass :)
<frank> will look now mr J
<mrj> ok
<gary fullett> actually his AC went out
<gary fullett> so I knew someone to help him
<gary fullett> so I helped
<mrj> good neighbor
<Jimbo> #@*!#, can't stay again GN all!
<gary fullett> before I begin any questions?
<gary fullett> Night jimbo :)
<mrj> nite jimbo
User [Jimbo] left forum on Mon Jul 10 21:11:51 EDT 2000
<mrj> yes
<gary fullett> okay mr J go ahead
<mrj> did soy beans and meal have a spring or possible climatic action today
<gary fullett> very good question
<gary fullett> lastweek
<frank> mr j, i have some old paper charts that go back too 73, only problem is i have noticed
<gary fullett> I mentioned that the month support was the 453 area
<gary fullett> and that it was possible that the beans woul;d ger there
<frank> a few points difference because of the chart calibrarion
<gary fullett> I thought that it may spring
<gary fullett> and get to that area
User [Joe K /172.160.234.152] joined forum on Mon Jul 10 21:15:06 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> possible to 440 area
<gary fullett> to wash out the longs
<mrj> hey Joe K
<gary fullett> and sell stops
<Joe K> hey guys
User [Guest /204.119.225.226] joined forum on Mon Jul 10 21:15:51 EDT 2000
<frank> what u know Joe?
<Joe K> possibly to 440's ? Beans ? :)
<gary fullett> but this morning was
<gary fullett> was classical
<mrj> Joe discussion is possible spring or climatic action in beans and meal in today's price action
<gary fullett> the market opened up at the 456 area
<gary fullett> under the previous
<gary fullett> lows
<Joe K> Thanks Mr J
<gary fullett> ans above the monthly support
<gary fullett> in No mans land
<gary fullett> so it was a tough call
<frank> a question Gary?
<gary fullett> but the market went to the 45
<gary fullett> 453 area
<gary fullett> and slowly worked higher
<gary fullett> to me this wasnt DEMAND
<gary fullett> but lack of supply
<gary fullett> one sec frank let me finish this thought
<frank> ok
<gary fullett> then the market went to the 460 area
<gary fullett> and volume picked up
<gary fullett> this to me was demand
<gary fullett> but resistance was still the 462-463 area
<gary fullett> it went to this area
<gary fullett> and went back to 461
<gary fullett> on light volume
<gary fullett> then the market in the last 5 monutes rallied 5 cents
<gary fullett> this to me was good action
<gary fullett> though the market has to het above 474
<gary fullett> for me to get buiilsh
<gary fullett> but the market acted and reacted from key support
<gary fullett> at 453
<gary fullett> and that is all that can be said right
<gary fullett> now is that the market held support
<gary fullett> and reacted well
<gary fullett> thjis could be the AR
<gary fullett> we should get some typpe of retest on light
<gary fullett> volume
<gary fullett> so the market held support it should have been bought
<gary fullett> today
<gary fullett> now if the market retests
<gary fullett> the key area
<gary fullett> to me is the 457 area
<gary fullett> the low from the other day
<gary fullett> so the action was good today
<gary fullett> okay Frank question?
<frank> occasionally a market that is showing lower lows and lower highs will open way below yesterdays range then the top of todays action will be weak and may or may not close the gap. is that inside manipulation or can u explain that?
<frank> todays market
<mrj>
<gary fullett> good question does everyone understand what frank is asking
<Guest>
<Capt> y
<gary fullett> okay
<Joe K> close which gap ?
<gary fullett> as u prob know most markets are manipulated
<gary fullett> by the CM
<gary fullett> they dont like company
<gary fullett> so they are like a bull trying
<gary fullett> to buck us off
<mrj> gap from let us say yesterday's low to today's high
<mrj> any market
<gary fullett> gaps to wyckoff have NO SIGNIFICANCE
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> gaps may get filled or may not get filled
User [Dennis /166.62.177.137] joined forum on Mon Jul 10 21:26:34 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> some markets have gaps that are NEVER filled
<gary fullett> so to make a statement about gaps with wyckoff
<gary fullett> doesnt do anything for a wycoff student
<gary fullett> if the action volume and price action
<gary fullett> id constructibe from the lows
<gary fullett> odds are that gap wont be filled
<gary fullett> but if the action volume and price action
<gary fullett> are weak the market probably fill the gap
<frank> the gap is not the question
<frank> the question is the weak top in the daily action
<gary fullett> like in beans today?
<frank> forget it
<gary fullett> then I donrt understand the question
<gary fullett> I am sorry
<gary fullett> if u talk about beans then the close was okay
<gary fullett> decent
<gary fullett> but if u were short today
<gary fullett> u made money
<gary fullett> if you came in long u lost money
<gary fullett> so in that case the market still didnt do anything constructive
<gary fullett> it needs to tak out last weeks highs
<gary fullett> are at least 474
<gary fullett> I would not go home long today
<mrj> Oats had a gap between Thrusday's high anf Friday's open that would be an opposite example to what Frank asked
<gary fullett> becasue beans closed on the high
<gary fullett> and u would like to know if oats are bullish?
<gary fullett> because of that action?
<mrj> would you consider that manipulation
<mrj> no on bullish is it manipulation is the way I understood Frank's question
<Capt> me to
<gary fullett> well the CM manpulates
<gary fullett> markets all the time
<gary fullett> so yes the gaps
<gary fullett> make people scramble
<gary fullett> and are probably manipulated
<gary fullett> this is the best way to answer that is the engeries
<gary fullett> that market is the most manipualte market
<gary fullett> now
<gary fullett> I mntioend last month
<gary fullett> that instead of raising imnterest rates
<gary fullett> that
<gary fullett> they would keep enegies
<gary fullett> high this would slow the economy
<gary fullett> and before the election they would fall
<gary fullett> the US gov
<gary fullett> the bigger of the Cms
<gary fullett> is maniplauted the price of crude
<gary fullett> do u remeber I said this?
<Joe K> y
<mrj> y
<gary fullett> well it is happening
<gary fullett> I bet u see gas prices 20-30 cents
<gary fullett> cheaper by Nov
<gary fullett> they have to or Gore will have a hard time overcoming this
<Joe K> agree
<gary fullett> so energies MUST go lower
<Capt> Saudi arabia is allready helping out
<gary fullett> they accomplished htier goals by slowing the economy down
<gary fullett> by making peolle not travel as much
<gary fullett> too expesive
<Guest>
<gary fullett> so yes Money talks and BS walks
<gary fullett> and the Cm manipulates the market all the time
<gary fullett> we tell Opec what to do
<Capt> well I want to start talking cause I'm tired of walking
<gary fullett> it isnt the opposite
<Dennis> what would you for to short oil?
<gary fullett> :)
<Dennis> look
<gary fullett> deniis longer term YES
<gary fullett> I think the market may have one more rally
<gary fullett> then break
<gary fullett> I think they needd to shake the shorts one more time
<mrj>
<Joe K> Whats funny is Opec trying to talk the market down
<gary fullett> so they can raly it one more time to distribute
<gary fullett> and break
<gary fullett> the market low was about 11 right?
<gary fullett> the highwas about 34 right?
<Joe K> yup
<gary fullett> that menas that crude can come halfway back
<gary fullett> to about 22-24 area
<mrj> high for Aug 32.95
<Capt> The trucking industry is crying The Farmers are unhappy the man has to be worried about them
<Capt> Big bucks big votes
<mrj> if it rallies back to this level watch closely price action and volume
<gary fullett> mr J 100 percent correct !!!!
<gary fullett> so watch for half way back in crude
<gary fullett> questions?
<mrj> Gary would you explain for us the type of price action and volume that we should have when a market is preparing to go down and is not likely to make new highs
<gary fullett> like crude MR J?
<mrj> yes that's fine given that Dennis has expresed an interest
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> crude had a selling climax at 11 dollars right?
<gary fullett> lets work thu the mechanics okay?
<Capt> y
<mrj> y
<gary fullett> and rallied
<gary fullett> the market had its AR
<gary fullett> then a retest and trading range
<gary fullett> it showed demnad about the 14 area
<gary fullett> the market went to new highs
<gary fullett> this happened as interest rates were
<gary fullett> low
<gary fullett> then last yr the economy
<gary fullett> was doing well
<gary fullett> we were able to absorb the higher price for crude
<gary fullett> so far so good
<gary fullett> ?
<Capt> y
<Dennis> y
<gary fullett> the cm could sneak up the price without inflation creeping in
<gary fullett> no one cares to pay a few more cents at the pump as long as stocks were doing well
<gary fullett> has anyone heards of inflation when crude went to 30 bucks?
<gary fullett> not really
<gary fullett> so the CM did a great job
<gary fullett> now the economy was dong well
<gary fullett> and the Fed raised rates right?
<Capt> yep
<gary fullett> that really didnt work
<gary fullett> so they had to hurt people
<gary fullett> the best way without going nuts and keep raising
<gary fullett> rates
<gary fullett> otherwise we have a recession
<gary fullett> so instead of r aising rates
<gary fullett> they raised gas prices
<gary fullett> and u know what the economy slowed down
<gary fullett> now back to MR J question
<gary fullett> the market went to
<gary fullett> the the lows 30 ,s
<mrj> 34.37
<gary fullett> people thought amos included and it may still happen though i doubt it
<mrj> high possible BC
<gary fullett> that crude can go to 40 area
<gary fullett> thanx mr j
<gary fullett> so the market went to 34 area
<Joe K> i got 34.50 mr j lol
<gary fullett> had heavy volume
<gary fullett> and broke hard last week
<gary fullett> this could be a SOW
<gary fullett> sign of weakness
<gary fullett> now if the market did have a BC
<gary fullett> and a SOW
<gary fullett> what should happen now?
<gary fullett> a retes of resisatnce
<Joe K> come off
<gary fullett> on lighter volume
<gary fullett> and a trading range for diistrubtuion
<gary fullett> that is what u should look for now Mr J
<gary fullett> market needs to build some cause for a larger move
<Guest>
<gary fullett> I think we had a BC and SOW
<gary fullett> I htink crude can go down abit more here
<gary fullett> rally
<gary fullett> go into a trading range for the CM to distribute
<gary fullett> and break to the 22-24 area
<gary fullett> so the breaks should be on heavier volume
<gary fullett> and larger price action than the rallies
<gary fullett> indicated SUPPLY
<gary fullett> has taken over
<gary fullett> understand?
<Capt> y
<gary fullett> makes sense>
<gary fullett> ?
<gary fullett> questions?
<Dennis> y
<mrj> 33.40 Is that correct
<mrj> computer malfunction sorry
<gary fullett> let me check 1 sec
<mrj> Gary we have a possible Bc at the high of 34.37 week of 3-10
<gary fullett> on the aug contract I have 3298
<mrj> Then a reaction to support at 23.70 week of 4-14
<gary fullett> okay
<mrj> 33.40 week of 6-23
<mrj> Is that correct
<gary fullett> yes
<mrj> 33.40 would be retest of BC
<gary fullett> that is correct
<Joe K> Mr J, my comment on 34.50 was where I see a top could be at max,
<gary fullett> an they can go avove that
<gary fullett> or stay under it
<gary fullett> but that is resisatnce
<mrj> agree Joe
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> I agree as well Joe
<mrj> that's why Gary tells us to watch price and volume at a rally to the top
<mrj>
<gary fullett> watch the market
<gary fullett> if u see a avolume
<gary fullett> and price action
<Joe K> yes
<gary fullett> it should be more pronounced to the down sde
<gary fullett> But if the Cm wants to fool u he will quikly run prices higher
<gary fullett> giving u a bullish feeling
<gary fullett> manipluation
<mrj> Upthrust
<gary fullett> and then slam it
<gary fullett> could upthurst to the 35 area
<gary fullett> though I doubt it
<Joe K> Gary, how can we understand true CAUSE, if the CM is so manipulative ?
<gary fullett> so supply
<gary fullett> should be overcoming demand
<gary fullett> by watching what the CM does
<gary fullett> u can see his maipulation for the most part
<gary fullett> sometimes he just beats u
<gary fullett> and ui cant ride his coatilas
<gary fullett> coatails
<gary fullett> by watching price action and volume
<gary fullett> u try to decifer his intentions
<Joe K> beat me ? he's been kicking my a$$ in Beans
<gary fullett> he can manipluate
<gary fullett> for a short time
<gary fullett> but for a longet term move he must have cause to be built
<mrj>-><gary fullett> Gary just thought you might want to know Dennis is new student
<gary fullett> takes to must money to make highs 1 day
<gary fullett> and lows the next
<Joe K> that makes sense
<mrj> lol Joe
<mrj>-><gary fullett> ok
<Capt> gary last week you said we would talk about the CRB will we do that this week?
<gary fullett> yes capt tomorrow
<Joe K> and Sugar ?
<gary fullett> I will sned updated charts and talk on that first tomorrow
<Capt> Thanks
<gary fullett> I was going to talk on thusday but I rambled on on the crash
<gary fullett> tomorrow I will talk on the CRB grains energies
<Capt> That was good too!
<Joe K> I missed them war stories
<gary fullett> I have a question?
<Joe K> :(
<gary fullett> do u all think floor traders amke money?
<Joe K> yup
<gary fullett> do u think thye gun for stops?
<Dennis> the good ones
<Joe K> yup
<Capt> I know a lot of them don't
<gary fullett> well good traders off the floor make money too dennis
<gary fullett> I would say
<Joe K> they do in coffee
<Dennis> very true
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> that 80 percent lose money
<mrj> Gary: Joe just mentioned Sugar Do you think it may be setting up for a possible short
<gary fullett> same percentage
<gary fullett> of poele off the floor
<gary fullett> see it isnt fast execution
<gary fullett> that makes money
<gary fullett> it is good trading
<gary fullett> yes I do Mr J
<gary fullett> distribution
<Capt> RIGHT ON!!
<gary fullett> sign of weakess when the july went off the board
<gary fullett> I am serious
<mrj> kep a close eye Joe :)
<gary fullett> aboout fas t exection doesnt make someone a better
<gary fullett> trader it makes him lose it faster:)
<Capt> I agree
<gary fullett> I will prove this :)
<gary fullett> they have on line trading right?
<Joe K> Mr J ask Gary where my sell stop was in Sugar yesterday
<Joe K> lol
<mrj> lol
<gary fullett> wont tell em Joek
<Joe K> i know
<Joe K> Was at 8.50
<gary fullett> if faster execution made peole money
<gary fullett> then why do online traders who get "fast execution
<gary fullett> still lose money at the same rate as other traders
<mrj> 8.50 or 9.50
<gary fullett> it isnt the speed it is the quality of trades
<gary fullett> no it wasnt
<Capt> As they say haste makes waste
<gary fullett> so online trading please dont get caught up
<Joe K> 8.50, changed it today, rode sugar for 10 points got out, still watching it
<gary fullett> with it because it wont help u trade better
<gary fullett> 10 points?
<Joe K> yes sir
<gary fullett> Nope
<Joe K> trader down
<gary fullett> so speed isnt the key market knowledge is
<gary fullett> it was 11
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> so watch market action
<gary fullett> behavior price action and volume
<gary fullett> and watch the market for its strenghth and wekness
<gary fullett> that is the key with Risk management
<Joe K> Gary you defined range in Beans at 453 to 473
<gary fullett> Yep
<Joe K> where is range in Corn and Wheat
<Guest>
<gary fullett> which month Joe?
<Joe K> Dec both
<gary fullett> dec what support
<gary fullett> 270 resisatnce 288
<gary fullett> wheat
<gary fullett> dec corn
<gary fullett> resisatnce 208
<gary fullett> support at 195
<Joe K> thanks
<gary fullett> I will send some graindtomorrow so we can discuss
<gary fullett> without charts
<gary fullett> I dont want to discuss
<gary fullett> detail
<gary fullett> until we have it in frnt of Us
<gary fullett> I want to chat about floor traders if u dont mind
<Capt> do so
<gary fullett> there are several important ponts
<gary fullett> that u must understand
<gary fullett> ther expenses are prob 3k a month at least
<Joe K> new finn cost ?
<Joe K> lol sorry
<gary fullett> so in order for them to make monet they MUST make 36 k per yr
<gary fullett> rent of a seat is from 1700 - 5 k a month
<gary fullett> so inorder to break even they must make alot
<gary fullett> so if a trader has a 100 k account
<gary fullett> and makes a return of 50 percent what did he make for the yr?
<gary fullett> 50 k right?
<Capt> 14
<mrj> 50000
<gary fullett> well if exp are 36 k
<gary fullett> what did he take home for the yr?
<gary fullett> 14 k
<mrj> 14
<gary fullett> if he is lucky
<gary fullett> can u live on 14 k a yr
<gary fullett> ?
<mrj> not my family
<gary fullett> and remeber he has losing days so he must trade to get back to even
<gary fullett> that is my point
<Joe K> yes with the wife working I can
<gary fullett> 50 percent treturn is excellent
<gary fullett> :)lol
<gary fullett> so the fllor trader
<mrj> keep her working Joe :)
<gary fullett> doesnt durvive long
<Capt> 13k is considered poverty level now days
<gary fullett> but 50 percent return on 100 k is good isnt it?
<Joe K> which markets are sought out or coveted among floor brokers ?
<gary fullett> I dont think banks give that out :)
<mrj> pork bellies?
<gary fullett> s and P
<gary fullett> moslty
<gary fullett> I trade din the bellies pit
<Joe K> whats cost of a seat at SnP
<gary fullett> one day I will tell u stories there
<gary fullett> about 175 k
<Joe K> dang
<gary fullett> during the crash it went o 70 k
<gary fullett> so being a floor trader
<gary fullett> isnt the easierst
<gary fullett> remeber if they pick off one of your stops
<gary fullett> they must quickly get out of it
<Capt> they have to pay rent on top of that gary?
<gary fullett> to possibly profit
<gary fullett> at ther ehome yes
<gary fullett> at thier home
<gary fullett> I know I was there
<gary fullett> so fllor traders take on the risk from other floor traders
<gary fullett> and paper orders that customer put in
<Joe K> which market is the craziest in the pits ?
<gary fullett> so it isnt easy
<gary fullett> I think it is easier to make money off the floor than on the floor
<gary fullett> Nasdaq by far Joek
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> so if u think floor traders
<Joe K> which is most tame ?
<gary fullett> A) do well
<gary fullett> B ) survive
<gary fullett> not realy true
<gary fullett> oats :)
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> dont trade those :)
<Joe K> paint drying pit
<Capt> I thought butter:)
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> butter traders from 10 -1002 on friday
<gary fullett> they have a contest at the Merc
<Capt> That is why I said that
<gary fullett> what time butter will close
<Joe K> lol
<Capt> lol
<gary fullett> it varies from 10 seconds to 3 minutes
<gary fullett> I never won that contest
<gary fullett> I am very very serious
<mrj> lol
<gary fullett> it is a cash amrket
<Joe K> too funny
<gary fullett> the merc doesnt want to delist it
<gary fullett> so they leave it trade on fridys
<gary fullett> oh there are many stories
<gary fullett> I told Joe a good one today
<gary fullett> I will relate these as the weeks go on
<gary fullett> for your enertianment and truthful ness
<gary fullett> if u wish
<Guest>
<Capt> you bet
<Joe K> yes
<gary fullett> any other questions>?
User [Dennis /166.62.177.137] joined forum on Mon Jul 10 22:34:21 EDT 2000
<mrj> did you read Neill Guitoloni post about Richard Donchain on tfc? must reading
<gary fullett> tomorrow about 6-8 charts
<gary fullett> yes I did
<gary fullett> it was pretty good
<mrj> really something huh Gary
<Joe K> whos that scratching head
<gary fullett> what I told Joe?
<gary fullett> or about Neil?
<gary fullett> Mr J?
<Joe K> who are richard and neil
<gary fullett> neil was a grain trader at the board
<mrj> Richard Donchain is best know for the four week rule
<mrj> Neil is former pit trader
<mrj> he post on tfc
<Joe K> ok
<Joe K> thamks
<gary fullett> buy new highs after 4 weeks
<mrj> good story about what happened to Donchain
<gary fullett> sell new lows after 4 weeks
<gary fullett> a turtle trade
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<Capt> Dennis make sure that you attend these chats you will get charts and other information so you can follow along I'm new here as well.I went to the archives and that helped alot
<mrj> was adopted by Richard Dennis with modifications
<gary fullett> otherwise I will see u all tomorrow
<mrj> nite guys
<gary fullett> I worked with Richard deniis 15 yrs ago
<gary fullett> night MR J
<Joe K> ok see ya all tomorrow
<gary fullett> thanx capt
<Dennis> I started to look at the archives
<gary fullett> for lettig dennis know
User [mrj] left forum on Mon Jul 10 22:38:43 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> great :) I hope they help
<Dennis> Good night everyone
User [Joe K] left forum on Mon Jul 10 22:38:57 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I will see you all tomorrow night
<Capt> well I am still here
<gary fullett> have a great night
User [Dennis] left forum on Mon Jul 10 22:39:12 EDT 2000
User [Guest] left forum on Mon Jul 10 22:39:24 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> question capt?
<Capt> nite all
<gary fullett> night
User [gary fullett] left forum on Mon Jul 10 22:39:42 EDT 2000