User [gary fullett /172.147.181.51] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 21:01:54 EDT 2000 Hi Gary hey Gary hi gary good evening everyone hi I am sorry I am late User [amos /62.0.146.3] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 21:02:24 EDT 2000 I need to run to central illinios to drop of my guests hi amos hello amos so I am here 5 hours of fun hi amos fun is good give me a minute please hi it wasnt that fun :) brb he made it? ?? who? what? I am back Nevermind since I wasnt around in the afternoon charts wil go out tomorrow there are some markets that are very interesting I will be discussing in detail tomorrow but I will mention the markets that look like adecent probable moves gold oj coffee gold looks like it is on a spring board Oj retested the creek area of the 8550 area and coffee appears to be accumualting above monthly support by the way if anyne is interested the fed is meeting today and tomorrow about interrest rates not suppose to raise them that annoucement will be made at 1 pm cst approxiamately I understand that but I dont want anyone to get caught in a volile few hours okay lets begin any questions? no okay.. -> do u want to talk on gold wekly then I will talk on other stuff User [Guest /204.119.225.208] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 21:11:33 EDT 2000 Please look at the oj chart and u will see a beautiful retest of support and the good rally the last 2 days this is i mportant because it shows that at SUPPORT the market had DEMAND and that is what one would expect in a market that appears to be bullish when one expects to find support and where one finds Demand it is important to see the reaction from that level when a market goes to support and doesnt really rally this rally probably will be on light volume small price range and it will be a weak rally and most likely the rally will fail and go lower to the next area of support so it is the quality of rally that one gets a important that is important do you all understand this? y yes yes the light volume on the way down to retest looks good on Oj lmarsh? y that is true and we did see this last week the chart don't have the volume for today yet and it was a great retest of the breakout and creek area volume was better than yesterday we will review this chart tomorrow my point being is that OJ afeter its rally and demand it was important to see if the retest came with supply or selling pressure and we can see this that after the rally and jump over the creek the market broke or retested as lmarsh said on light volume this light volume indicates the lack of supply or selling pressure and thus demand came in at suupport where it should have and rallied nicley understand? any questions? okay.. since grains have been on everyone mind because of weather lets talk about them for a bit but before I menioned them I am new think I got it amos do u have any comment on the grains in general or specfically? capt do have any questions? have u traded before? Well like I said I am new I hope the rally in SX continues and turns into an AR. I think that the spread july nov hit resistance at 23... Read all of Sept logs If meal resumes its leadership---there can be a nice rallly. Need more time Wrotte notes on all the charts Took 3 1/2 hrs each set did an all nighter Whew Capt Tired good note of the spread there amos. thanks I hoped it helped cpt well meal has been the strongest It was great grain and oif it can re gain leadership a rally can occur What you did not se was I did all of Sept amos. u said if the SX rallies it will lead into an AR? do u think the target u gave of 474 was the selling climax if Nov beans rally from here? not lead to Ar--but may qualify for one...it is not a classical high volume SC. what do u make of this action then? I said last nite that it may be more a reaction to the double bottom at 4.72 than a classical ending action of a major reaction are you referring to yesterday's action as SC? it is interesting if the amrket does rally from here Yes, you can only hope ( if you are bullish) that is was sorts of.... because all i hear about is that the amrket ids "going to 450 basis Nov beans" I hear $3.00 Nov beans? what was the all time low for beans? certainly not gold 1.70 it is interesting.. maybe lower I never ook at corn crops or bean crops as I am city person but now I am near that stuff because of all the rain corn and beans plants are underwater and are dying User [Joe K /172.160.236.213] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 21:30:38 EDT 2000 hey Joe I donrt know much about it but it was interesting Hey everyone topic ? grains Joe hey jow what do u know ? hi Joe joe amos the low in beans last yr was 400 area so techinically yes, july the market can retest to that level and still be considered longer term bullish correct But they had a classical reversal there--was relatively easy to enter with a clear stop loss ? It does not help if it is going to stay below 5.00 for 7 months!! so how do u see the market longer term than? We do not see demand (aggressive) yet I would like to see some volume off the bottom!! volume would help so all that demand that we had 2 months ago wasnt demand? or was that the start of demand on now retesting but need to see demand again? It evaporated, gary, the market needs to hedge now-- and doin g it at lower prices--that is not bullish We need to see the CM coming in and aggressivly bidding prices for 20-30 cents--before we can say there is demand so untill we see this thanx we need to sell rallies into resisatne? Amos with Nov Beans, does this qualify as "Back to the creek" ? at 475 Joe, Do you mean the low of 4.92 of 6.14? which I thought would be a Preliminary support? User [williamstem /140.198.85.36] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 21:40:07 EDT 2000 It can be "ice" now. There is no "creek" when you are rallying towards previous support which is now resistance.... Hi everyone do u understand that Joe? welcome william how are you tonight Doing good hi william welcome to class No not "Ice" dont have my terms handy Hi joe previous support that becomes resisatnce is called ice beans have broken thru support ok, cool and now have a rally Let me repeat the Wyckoff picture of Nov beans for a second, OK? if it rallies back to resisatnce this is ice yes, please do please do amos y y Since 6.6 at 5.52 the market declined sharply to 4.92 on 6.14... williamstem please ask questions if u have any ok This was a strong 60 cents decline. It was either a leg in a bear market or some kind of a washout. After 6.14 the market stalled for 3 days, but could not take out the high of 6.14 at 5.07 3/4... I thougth that might qualify as a preliminary support and I said lets watch for a selling climax... The thinking was that if that decline was a reaction in a bear market...then there should be panic of tired andfrightened bulls and this should end with a classical panic.... Wel.. since 6.14 tha mared declined another 20 some cents but NO PANIC.... So, I am leary of the rally. it is a weak rally so far the ranges are small on rallies and the volume light It is natural rally off the double bottom at 4.72--but if this is deman--then the buying should be more viogorous... It is not a classical selling climax. That is why I started by saying I hope we can see a more vigorous rally that will simboize sort of demand.... is this celar? clear? clear clear Yes sir, So Amos, where is, or was the " Creek" in Nov Beans then yes I want to be "Clear" on this There is no creek. joe a creek is at support beans have gone thru support thus no creek A creek is a vague apes from which previously, the forces of support or demand asserted themselves. apex Got it ! Thankyou ice is opposite of creek The only reason wyckoff used the term "creek" was to eliminate the usage of straight lines... He alswyas scoffed at ruller type geometry of markets--- he thought more in fractal way of thinking He was way ahead of his time and mendlebrott mendlebrott? The guy that "invented" fractal math k I will send grain charts tomorrow Even when he discussed trendlines...Wyckoff warned agains paying too much attention to the line itself--he talked about "areas" of support and resistance".... thus the concept of the creek is like a river...that goes in a certain direction but can have corners and swervings LIke the mississippi reiver going north at certain places! (I used to fly to Memphis a lot from Chicago) : ) rivers do do that Pheonix too I think gold looks cnstructive here as well so does this mean to be a little fkexabl on some of this stuff? amos do u have a comment on gold yes capt fkexabl is very good wyckoff was interested in areas of support and resisatnce not so much 'exact numbers i understand Gary, I "promised" joe K that we will discuss the weekly gold tonite--now I feel ashamed. he wanted to identify accumaulation distribution strenght weaknesses if the are is support and shows strenghth it should be bought with a stop loss all markets should have a stop loss so even if u enter early but are right with the trend u will do okay that is important User [mrj] left forum on Tue Jun 27 21:56:32 EDT 2000 because most systems have exacts numbers to me this is not a correct way to look at markets u must identfy accumaltion distribution Amos, like to talk about Gold, but either way, I am learning, so its all good and trend from there trading becomes much easier amos can u talk weekly gold then please not without a chart! Ah Ha Mystery man Gary ! Gary, I would like to talk road marks, specific prices-- i do not have a weekly gold in front of me. okay I will send tomorrow for your trading pleasure I want to point out something important here I glanced at it last nite as Joe mentioned it and thougth it is very intersting... need a nice discussion of the geography and definitions K will do that tomorrow Cool 1 wyckoff is a way to look at markets in the eyes of the composite man the "people in the know" they lead a trail for us to follow with price action and colume volume sorry so they "buy" or sell" in an area and not necessrily at 1 price why do i say that because it is true :) if the want to run a camplaighn campaign and they need to build cause and a reason to move the market up or down it takes preperation so they will buy ( accumulate) or sell distribute within an area this area is called the trading range so that is why wyckoff is Not an exact Point to buy or sell so that is why he used the terms creeks and ice a wavey area not necessaily a stright line with amthmatical computations mathematical do you understand this? y y y Yes good please stop me if u dont understand at any point ok understood :) good... Gary so what is generally going on with Gold right now ? is there any market that anyone would like to ask a question on? genrally in a range :) lol I think gold is holing support and look constructive I would like to se demand here do we hanve to look hard at times for this trading range? with good price action and increased volume not really capt good the trading ranges for the most part are fairly obvious but the problem can be in time frame please relieze that the trading range can be intraday daily weekly monthly got it so it can be a trading range on a weekly cotton went to the bottom of support today, possible made a spring? buy a breakout on the daily and there is a differnece well the reactio off of support wasnt good lmarsh if tomorrow they can rally I think it can be a 2 day spring cotton ins in an area of supoprt noticed that on Sept cocoa Charts you posted so one wuld expect a reaction to the uside from these levels yeah, volume / price action is bearish User [Guest /204.119.225.78] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 22:10:59 EDT 2000 yep question capt? nope oh that was a commnet on cocoa okay I thought u had a question sorry yes on the different time frames great User [Guest] left forum on Tue Jun 27 22:12:39 EDT 2000 User [Frank /63.160.52.231] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 22:12:55 EDT 2000 it is important to look at time frames as they tell different stories many times hi Frank so u must look at the whole forest and not just the trees hi marsh This is an area I am improning on great that is important and wyckoff will help I see that already great I am glad does everyone understand y about time frames and how they can look differnt and mean differnet things y the CM can trick traders in many ways User [joe k /172.167.130.188] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 22:15:50 EDT 2000 it is important to have your tools ready Damn, got bumped and it is important to have a clear head and to try and undersatnd the Cms intentions are he will elave clues amny times leave clues many times User [williamstem] left forum on Tue Jun 27 22:17:00 EDT 2000 sometimes he loses money too but overall we need a road map and put toghther as many pieces of thr puzzle that we can we gather these pices by doingor homework wi h charts So generaly we want more signs of continues Demmand, along with Volume, exerting itself, withen a range, and not at an exact point, or price what I was trying to say, before I got bumped To better see the evedent signs that commercials are nibbling on bait chart 2 and chart6 of 9/21 is a good example of time frames right Joe Got it, Not all Cms are commercails Joe yes the Cot charts committement of traders is a lagging indicator when u watch wyckoff u see the actual volume and price action as it is happening u dont have to wait 2 weeks to get this data User [amos /62.0.146.3] joined forum on Tue Jun 27 22:22:07 EDT 2000 yup