User [amos /62.0.146.38] joined forum on Mon Jun 26 21:06:30 EDT 2000
<mrj> hello amos
<Joe K> there goes the neighborhood
<amos> hi
<Joe K> lol
<Joe K> Whats up Grand Swammy Amos ?
<amos> dow
<Joe K> Out of my leauge
<Joe K> :)
<amos> gary is not here?
<Joe K> not yet
<capt> Can you give me an idea of the general talks are about
<amos> we usually discuss markets from wyckoff volume price point of view.
<Joe K> Support and resistence or supply and demand in various markets
<amos> did you have any request of question in mind capt'n
<capt> cool,any talk about open intrest?
<amos> o.i. is not part of the Wyckoff paradign.
<amos> you can teach us, tho
<capt> NO I am trying to get the gist of where you are at
<amos> Chicago
<Joe K> Hey Capt Amos did a little dictionary of Wyckoff terms, its on page 1 before you enter chat room
<Joe K> It helps
<capt> no I meant in your thougt or discussions
<Joe K> But most talk here you can understand
<amos> If you came here--did you have Wyckoff in mind or do you want specifically discussion on o.i.?
<mrj> Capt. if you read some of the past logs in the archives that would be helpful
<amos> I was just wondering how did you wander in here?
<mrj> charts are provided with logs
<capt> I am a seeker of information and like to look at all areas and see if they apply to my way or if I can adapt them to my ways
<Joe K> Capt how long you been trading ?
<capt> About two years
<amos> This is very good, Gary usually is very open to new comers
<amos> I , on the other hand, am a very closed mind person and I only want to talk about Wyckoff.
<amos> It does not work usually,l
<Joe K> lol
<amos> People do not like closed minded people
<amos> What do you know so far about the Wyckoff trading method?
<capt> To answer amos: I was just looking for some COT charts and came across the web sight
<amos> WOnderous are the way of the lord
<capt> not much just started to look at what it is about
<amos> OK, since the master is away--any wyckoff question. statement?
<amos> Please one at a time
<capt> OK ,what are the basic outlook that you employ
User [gary /172.160.83.190] joined forum on Mon Jun 26 21:19:28 EDT 2000
<amos> we look at buying and selling climaxes
<capt> ment is
<mrj> hi gary
<capt> are you using COT or just tops and bottoms
<gary> Hi everyone I am not home currently so I cant be a t class
User [gary] left forum on Mon Jun 26 21:20:46 EDT 2000
<mrj> amos would you consider today's action in corn as a potential selling climax?
User [Guest /204.119.225.92] joined forum on Mon Jun 26 21:21:58 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi guest
<amos> capt, since you are stuck with me
<Guest> hi
<amos> you may not like what we speak, so please bear with us
<amos>
<amos> diid anyone detect any selling or buying climaxe worth talking about?
<mrj> corn possibly?
<amos> what in corn?
<capt> hey i am easy to get along with but I learn quick
<Joe K> Was curious about what Mr J already mentioned corn, beans SC ?
<amos> mrj-what in corn?
<mrj> was today's action in corn a possible selling climax?
<amos> how?
<mrj> I asking
<mrj> you answer
<amos> a selling climax is high volume large range reversal type behavior that comes after a preliminary support action.
<amos> what of these did we have in corn?
<mrj> don't know about today's volume seemed to have wide price rande to downside
<amos> but it closed on the low--so this cannot qualify as a climax. By definition a climax is a behvvior where the market runs out of sellers.... Ususally the last weak long bails out and smart operators recognize this
<amos> and cover their shorts and try to go long... this usually causes an
<amos> automatic rally.
<mrj> we would need confirmation by having an automatic rally from here and then a retest of today's action to confirm
<amos> Yes, but today's action in itself did not show any short covering--so this does not qualify as a climax, but rather as continuation of supply coming into the market
<mrj> k
<Guest>
<amos> The bearutiful thing about wyckoff is that it takes a lot of the guessing out of the market analysis.
<amos> You do not have to say--maybe it is this or maybe it is that---when you see an action that is obvious and it
User [mrj] left forum on Mon Jun 26 21:29:25 EDT 2000
<amos> fits one of the defininions--- you have a high probabtility of the next action to follow.
<amos> That does not mean that you won't be wrong--but those definitions of market action
User [mrj /209.16.79.82] joined forum on Mon Jun 26 21:29:48 EDT 2000
<amos> have higher than chance probability of being correct.
<amos> An action, or ending action of preliminary support and a selling climax is based upon the actual psychology of traders and thus
<amos> has a high porbability of predictability.
<amos> At any rat-- I am waiting for some climax in the grains--so far nada.
<mrj> k
<Joe K> Amos having trouble reading Gold any thoughts
<amos> In a minute joe..... There is tho another point about the beans--- it can be a double bottom at
<amos> 4.72 on the nov contract.
<Joe K> k
<amos> Is there any other grain that has support at current levels?
<Joe K> It appears Wheat has
<mrj> BO
<amos> level in bo
<mrj> 16
<amos> dec bo I see had support at 16.70 and today hit 16.58--so we are in a support area.
<amos> Worth watching---
<mrj> Oats
<amos> So either we will have a classical ending action with a selling climax, or the double bottom will provide temporary support (there is no cause to go higher)--or we continue to go lower.;...
<amos> So from this simple analysis--you can deduce that there is no trade in any of the grains as of tonite. tomorrow will be another day--but at this point
<amos> If you put a gun to my head-- i wont trade the grains... Does this make sense?
<mrj> y
<amos> (not the gun to my head--this always makes sense)
<Joe K> yes
<mrj> lol
<Guest>
<amos> Ok, again--if I have to make a statement about the grains as of tonite and I do not have a position-- I am out and watching intently.
<amos> O?
<amos> OK?
<mrj> ok
<Joe K> k
<amos> Now, Joe asked about gold, Please define its position ala WYckoff.
<Joe K> Back to the creek ?
<amos> Define the boundaries of that creek and what month?
<Joe K> Aug
<amos> Aug has one month before first notice, much better to deal with oct or dec
<Joe K> Ok, and Im guessing that that is the action, with lower 280's providing support
<Joe K> still fuzzy here on it
<amos> Did gold, in your opinion, Joe have an ending action?
<Joe K> no
<mrj> maybe
<Joe K> I think demand came in, has subdued, put is still present
<amos> There was no classical selling climax and at--the market just ran out of seellling, but no panic bail out by longs--
<mrj> price action and volume of 5-25?
<amos> it rallied and on the second day of the rally about 3 weeks ago there was a surge of volume (sort of Volume off the bottom) that was not followed. In the nesxt 2-3 weeks tha market meandereed
<amos> and went no where and last week started drifting lower. Now Joe you said that is ias back to the creek. let us define a creek
<amos> can anyone do this?
User [capt /24.93.31.34] joined forum on Mon Jun 26 21:44:27 EDT 2000
<Guest>
<Joe K> The point at which demmand begins to come in facing previous resistance
<amos> you have to press enter to remain active in this chatroom--otherwise it kicks
<capt>
<amos> OK. One point of a creek is a clear departure from a narrow trading range that is followed by a clear and distinct move in one direction , ususally followed with larger than usual volume
<capt> thanks
<amos> where was such a point in gold? I am back to august
<Joe K> 274
<amos> Yes, it was 275 on 6.2.2000
<amos> So if you say that the market is going back to that creek--it is going to test the bottom arean....
<mrj> why 6-2
<Joe K> hmm and thats not what Im thinking then
<amos> Testing a creek and testing a bottom is not the same thing--the psycological and technical status of the market
<amos> is different in both these cases--in one case there was strong demand--
<amos> in the second the rally was a short covering rally withing a range--and you are seeking the borrom of the range--do you guys see the differenct in these two cases/
<amos> ?
<Joe K> yes
<Joe K> Well Amos what in Wyckoff terms would better describe this pull-back, but not back to the creek action ?
<amos> But I am not sure that this is the true situation in gold--Because we have to go to the weekly and look at the larger5picture to say soething
<amos> intelligent--the stron rally in Jan-2000 has long term significance that has to be evaluated...
<amos> It requires a detai9lled analysis--should take 1-2 hours at elast
<amos> least
<amos>
<amos> I think it is worthy of a good in depth analysis-- i will ask gary to send weekly charts tmw--and we can devote some time for it-- it you guys wish
<Joe K> sounds great
User [Guest] left forum on Mon Jun 26 21:51:43 EDT 2000
<amos> Ok, there is another interesting market--the bonds--it had a buying climax 2 weeks ago and it was tested--and now it seems as if this whole area may have been
<capt> send me one also
<amos> a small distribution--which may bode ill to this market (capt you have to send Kelly your e mail and she will add you to the ammailing list)
<capt> thanks
<amos> I love to talk about the bonds--but we rarely do it here--so I will defer it to gary
<mrj> amos BC day was 6-2?
<Joe K> or 6 16
<mrj> 6-20 re-test day?
User [amos] left forum on Mon Jun 26 21:57:14 EDT 2000
<Joe K> dang my new charts arnt in yet
<Joe K> can pull it up on line, but Mr J has price went beyond 6-16 after June 19 ?
<mrj> 98 8/32 on 62- and 98 4/32 0n 6-20
<Joe K> ok, thanks bud
<mrj> wide price action and close near low on 6-2 as well as increased volume = BC
<Joe K> ok
User [amos /62.0.147.188] joined forum on Mon Jun 26 22:03:13 EDT 2000
<mrj> wb amos
<amos> i am sorry the whole thing blew in my face
<amos> i was typing a storm and forze then I pressed CLear on the right and the was wrong.
<amos> WHere are we?
<mrj> bonds
<mrj> BC and re-test
<Joe K> and stuff
<Joe K> :)
<amos> Yes, it was not 6.16--that was an up day. Joe, a climax is a reversal of one or more days..... followed by automatic something.
<Joe K> ok thanks
<amos> You know guys, I was not ready to run a class-- I am not prepared, and I hate to shoot off the top of my head...
<amos> Maybe we should call it a nite and tomorrw be more prepared?
<Joe K> On short notice, I belive you have done just fine
<amos> Tks
<mrj> good night guys
<amos> nite joe capt mrj
<Joe K> Ok see yas tomorrow
<amos> bye
User [amos] left forum on Mon Jun 26 22:07:18 EDT 2000