User [gary fullett /172.138.28.117] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 20:53:22 EDT 2000
User [mrj /206.251.171.89] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 20:57:20 EDT 2000
<mrj> <Enter Text Here>
<mrj> hi gary
<gary fullett> hey mr j
<gary fullett> how are you
<gary fullett> how was your day?
<mrj> lost four ticks on BO
<mrj> could have been worse
<gary fullett> did u get out today?
<mrj> y
<mrj> as you said looks weak
<gary fullett> I think that wise
<gary fullett> I think it will hold support
<gary fullett> at the 1600 area
<gary fullett> but it may drift there
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.189] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 21:02:00 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I think corn and beans awill be on the defensive
<lmarsh> hello
<mrj> I saw a post today by a well respected forum member that we might see the teens in BO
<gary fullett> hey lmarsh
<mrj> Hi lmarsh
<gary fullett> teens as in 1300 area
<gary fullett> ?
<mrj> yes
<mrj> she says that there is way too much BO
<gary fullett> i cant imagine they go that low
<mrj> she's a fundamentalist name of Susan
<gary fullett> which forum?
<mrj> ino
<gary fullett> ino.com?
<mrj> y
<mrj> posted this afternoon
<lmarsh> egads!
<gary fullett> if you draw the trend line in wheat from the recent highs it hit it exactly
<mrj> stopped out marsh four tick lost :)
<gary fullett> I think that they may short cover in the grains
<gary fullett> beans and corn
<gary fullett> and sell wheat
<gary fullett> if bean oil go there then the beans trade at 4 bucks
<mrj> There's a former floor trader on tfc who is recommending WZ long and CZ short
<gary fullett> I saw that
<lmarsh> would you call that the "trendline resistance" on the wheat?
<gary fullett> and that is a great spread as long as corn goes down
<mrj> Name is Neil Guitaloni
<gary fullett> came in about 281 in july
<gary fullett> I saw his name he has benn on alot
<gary fullett> actually wheat corn is a bull spread
<gary fullett> but if rain comes
<mrj> yes he has
<gary fullett> corn and beans get hit the most
<gary fullett> and with wheat yields being poor
<gary fullett> the spread can work big
<gary fullett> but the prob is lots of people are in that
<gary fullett> did u see the cocoa today?
<gary fullett> that spring from the other day lead to a 100 point rally
<mrj> quite a move
<lmarsh> y
<mrj> resistance nearby though
User [Frank /63.160.52.188] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 21:08:55 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> oops brb
<mrj> hey Frank
User [Guest /204.119.225.67] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 21:09:08 EDT 2000
<Frank> hi mr j , marsh
<mrj> hi guest
<Guest> hi
<mrj> good call on spring Gary
<gary fullett> cocoa has a gap just a bit ahead
<gary fullett> well I sent the chart
<gary fullett> I get lucky once in a while
<gary fullett> coffee is looking interesting here
<gary fullett> it did break support
<gary fullett> on the weekly basis
<gary fullett> but monthly lows should hold
<gary fullett> futures are very risky there
<gary fullett> I have a question
<gary fullett> why did crude rally is OPEC increased supply?
<gary fullett> if u look
<mrj> demand is still prevalent
User [amos /62.0.147.113] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 21:13:09 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> at markets that are beiing manipulated this is definetly one
<mrj> hello amos
<gary fullett> they will keep this high for awhile
<amos> hi
<gary fullett> good morning amos
<amos> barely
<gary fullett> so did anyone have any questions?
<gary fullett> by the way the oj chart
<gary fullett> did break above daily ressiatnce and is actin pretty nicely
<lmarsh> back
<gary fullett> it should retest the creek area
<gary fullett> at the 8500 area
<amos>
<gary fullett> silver is at the bottom of its range
<gary fullett> this is an important suport
<gary fullett> area
<gary fullett> at the 490 area
<gary fullett> coffe was higher tooday
<gary fullett> but really didnt do all that much
<gary fullett> grains were lack lauster
<gary fullett> amos do u have any comment on the grain action today?
User [mrj] left forum on Thu Jun 22 21:20:45 EDT 2000
<amos> I am waiting for this reversal on the beans--I still think that last wed was a potential
User [mrj /206.251.171.89] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 21:21:08 EDT 2000
<amos> PS and if there is a selling climax--we should see an AR. Until we see an AR, I do nothing. Now we
<amos> also have the chance of a spring of the 4.85 area....that is good too. I also think the sep rice is interesting.
<amos> 62.50 is like a creek on that chart
<amos> This CRB thing is bound to take the grain up one of these days. It is a vicious bull
<amos>
<mrj> ok
<gary fullett> 625 rice?
<amos> they changed the price of the contract, did not they?
<gary fullett> we havnt had a selling cliamx in beans have we?
<gary fullett> oh yes they did
<gary fullett> u r right
<gary fullett> what are your feelings on the rice market?
<amos> How could we have had a SC in beans before the AR?
<amos> I think it is worth close watch
<gary fullett> we couldnt
<gary fullett> I just did want anyone to get confused here
<amos> I mentioned the rice, because it is a food group
<gary fullett> the sliing climax can take us much lower from though
<gary fullett> and ?
<amos> Somehow I feel that when the market wants to rally the food group--beans, wheat ....rice will move too, and
<amos> technically it is back to a creek--so I want to look for a daily ending action.
<Frank> amos the crb is at about the 50% of the 183 low7-99 and the 262 hi 4-96.
<amos> and?
<Frank> it it is a little early to be considerde a bull mkt amos
<Guest>
<amos> I called 225 a few months ago and now I am saying 240 is a given.
<gary fullett> yes u did
<gary fullett> could it do what the grains did amos
<amos> dont understand gary
<lmarsh>
<amos> could it do what?
<gary fullett> a rally to resisatnce and fail
<gary fullett> that is what I think frank is talking about
<amos> I am sorry, I do not follow
<Frank> 236 should about do it. hope u are right, perhaps we will all make money amos
<gary fullett> what I am saying is that the grains looked great as well
<gary fullett> and they failed after a rally
<amos> 236, means a lot higher in an index, Frank
<gary fullett> maybe halfway back will fial in the CRB
<gary fullett> I am playing devils advocate
<gary fullett> open for discussion
<amos> All I know is that this is a market that rallies, corrects shallowly and keeps going. This is a a bull now
<gary fullett> if energies fail from here
<gary fullett> the grains must pick up the slack
<amos> To stand in front of the Crb is like declaring a top for crude at 25 /barrel. You want to do it---be my guest
<gary fullett> demand surely is evidebt
<gary fullett> in the CRB
<Frank> i have no real opinion on crb, no conflict with amos call, given enough time it is bound to hit 240
<gary fullett> nope not ne
<gary fullett> amos
<gary fullett> do u have a target in crude
<amos> 40-50
<gary fullett> next resisatnce area?
<amos> what was the gulf war high? that is next target
<gary fullett> in the gulf war what was the high do u recall
<gary fullett> u beat me to it :)
<lmarsh> : )
<gary fullett> I think it was 42
<gary fullett> not sure there
<amos> It feels like this is a 1973 rally in grains--in the curde--like we are going to shift
<amos> into a defferent level of supply demand. The world is NOT going to have infinite amount of energy and some rationing HAS to
<mrj> 262.20
<amos> take place. We talked about it since Kissinger and the 73 embargo--but 30 hyears later
<mrj> 4-96
<amos> we DO see it. Forget less than 2 dolllars a gallon gas
<gary fullett> why do u say that
<amos> Because I am what I am
<lmarsh>
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> boy i cant drive to work anymore
<Guest>
<amos> You are not going to see a 35cents hamburger, 4 dollars min wage, 100 lumber, 1 doalar beans etc.
<gary fullett> yeah but oil is differnet
<Frank> amoos we heard this back in the 70's remember WIN, and gerald ford
<gary fullett> it will affect the ecomy too much
<amos> yes, many things take years to happen-- but the chart is saying that this is not a fluke
<gary fullett> amos just because u pay 4 bucks a gallon we are not use to it here
<amos> I am sorry.
<gary fullett> I will have to take a bike to work
<lmarsh> still paying $4 a gallon amos?
<amos> If they pay min wages at Mcdonalds--$10.hr--what is the diff?
<gary fullett> they wont
<gary fullett> no more taxi drivers here
<amos> Every thing is measured in wages, not in dollars. If it takes you so many minutes to earn a gallon of ga
<gary fullett> they price of gas will be the same here as in the country they came from
<Frank> i would not mind an electric pickup, as long as there is room 4 my gun rack{ : >)
<amos> gas and it is the same as 20 years ago--nothing changed, It is just the erosion of mooney
<gary fullett> minium wage is like 5 bucks that hasnt gone up much
<gary fullett> what do u mean the eriosion of money?
<Frank> It was a dollar and a quarter when I was pearl diving
<lmarsh> inflation? or rather devaluation?
<amos> I understand that a strating sallary for an engineer is close to 40,000 now is not it?
<gary fullett> yes
<lmarsh> if he has some experience yes
<amos> I was offered 19022
<amos> 19-22
<Frank> what year amos?
<gary fullett> recently?
<amos> 1686
<amos> I mean 16
<Frank> 19
<amos> ok, I promised not to joke, 1974
<lmarsh> that would have been a good wage in '74
<Frank> that was a good salary then
<amos> i was a good man in 74
<gary fullett> and now u are just barely a man
<amos> I am a bad man
<Frank> I was a target for a lot less in 74
<amos> What target do you have for crude gary?
<Frank> I prefer effective
<gary fullett> I think crude will break in about 2 weeks
<gary fullett> I think this is just a ploy
<gary fullett> to get
<gary fullett> gas prices highr
<mrj>
<gary fullett> to slow the economy
<gary fullett> so they dont have to raise rates
<gary fullett> and before the election
<Frank> here here!
<gary fullett> they will drop crude
<Frank> clap clap!
<gary fullett> it is being manipluted by the US goverenment
<gary fullett> and it is WORKING
<amos> I see that june 2001 is at 26. You may have a point--but I do not see anthing till 2002 less than 23
<gary fullett> Gore cant afford to have hgh gas
<gary fullett> they will vote against him
<gary fullett> amos u always feel
<amos> so we are still above the 20's==that means that we are into high energy cost for a long time. Maybe not 32 dollar--but forget 15 dollar and such...
<gary fullett> that markets are manipulilated
<gary fullett> this is the KIng Biba
<gary fullett> Buba
<gary fullett> I agree
<gary fullett> I think it will come back to half way back of the move
<gary fullett> prob anaout 22-26 area
<amos> Gary, this is like saying that beans cannot go over 4 dollars in 73. not any difference.
<gary fullett> why do u think the US hasnt released reserves
<gary fullett> they know it is temp thing
<Frank> There is a big difference in beans and fuel
<gary fullett> what do u mean about beans please?
<amos> have not spoken to the US lately, I do not know why and what they do with their reserves.
<gary fullett> beans make Gas
<gary fullett> it is being manipulated
<amos> North Korea is going to present a huge demand for resources pretty soon
<Frank> we never went to war over beans but we have twice over oil
<gary fullett> it is obvious to me
<gary fullett> Norht Korea lol
<amos> why llol?
<lmarsh> they appear to be hungry
User [Joe K /172.157.84.71] joined forum on Thu Jun 22 21:55:16 EDT 2000
<Frank> local distribution no longer exists in the usa
<gary fullett> they eat rice not oil
<Joe K> hey everybody !
<amos> I wish we stuck to wyckoff analysis of markets. I really do not feel qualified to talk about countries,
<mrj> Hi Joe
<gary fullett> hey Joey
<amos> Gores, continents etc
<gary fullett> I know amos I was just giving an overview
<Joe K> topic ?
<gary fullett> how do u desribe the action in coffee?
<amos> North korea
<Frank> they fertilize rice with oil products though, and cultivate with oil operated machinery,
<mrj> oil
<gary fullett> or cocoa amos?
<gary fullett> comment
<mrj> price of gas
<Frank> and transport it with oil operated machinery as well
<gary fullett> I mentioened the spring in cocoa the other day and it rallied 100 points
<gary fullett> cocoa or coffee comments wyckoff style amos?
<Frank> Japan bombed pearl harbor because we cut off their fuel supply and we will do the same too any one who threatens our fuel supply
<Frank> that is why oil will come down
<gary fullett> I will ake one more cooment on oil
<gary fullett> we will not tolerate high oil in this country
<amos> I think that cocoa is in large range to 1000. Cofee needs a strong rally before it is cured
<gary fullett> I know it isnt wyckoff but,,
<gary fullett> anyway
<gary fullett> is there a maket that anyone would like to discuss
<gary fullett> wyckoff wise?
<Joe K> cured ?
<gary fullett> does anyone see anything that looks interesting?
<lmarsh> cotton?
<gary fullett> k
<amos> YES 485 in beans is extremely interesting!
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment on cotton ?
<amos> i sec
<gary fullett> under the 485 level where can beans go?
<amos> cotton is in aread of nice support--oct at 58 is nice.
<gary fullett> I think cotton is longer term bullish
<gary fullett> into some support
<gary fullett> uptrend in cotton?
<Frank> 446
<amos> I do not know where they go below 4.85 but if they reverse here-- you have a nice srping and above 5.00 we are going to 5.44
<gary fullett> enough cause?
<Frank> 401
<gary fullett> for that rally
<gary fullett> ?
<amos> what is 401 is this K?
<amos> It will be a range and no need for a cause
<mrj>
<amos> It is an important point-- range behavior does NOT need a cause and ending action. I hope you all understand this
<Frank> 401 7-99
<amos> even though-- you get many times intraday count (very small reversals) that does give you nice cause
<lmarsh> good point!
<amos> It is possible Frank--but I doubt it, given the status of the CRB
<Frank> me too amos but the question was asked where could it go
<amos> I see. OK
<gary fullett> can u explain why u don need cause for a move in a arnge?
<amos> So, now that you mentioned cotton---look how manhy markets are at important support:
<gary fullett> silver coffee
<Frank> i try not to think too much just observe logical progressions
<amos> Cotton, rice, coffee, wheat, corn, beans, gold--it is mind boggling!!!
<lmarsh> yep
<amos> Rarely have so many owed their.... to so few
<Frank> amos churchill i presume
<amos> Whinston Churchill, making minimum wages in 44
<lmarsh> : ) worth every penny
<Frank> hung the iron curtin he did
<amos> lo
<gary fullett> amos what makrte do u see the most potiential from here?
<amos> Cotton, rice, coffee, wheat corn beans, gold
<amos> (is not it nice to be able to copy and paste?)
<Frank> wht is ur opinion on cotton?
<amos> it is back to a creek. I als
<amos> always am interested in markets that back into creeks
<amos> You know why?
<Frank> please tell us?
<lmarsh>
<amos> Because you either have a double bottom, or Hand S any way you look at it---the CAUSE is huge and I have a large move
<amos> in front of me--and it does not matter where exactly I enter....
<gary fullett> it builds cause frank
<gary fullett> it shows stenghth
<gary fullett> then retest support
<gary fullett> this cause large cause
<Frank> what is a hand s?
<gary fullett> have u looked at OJ amos?
<amos> Hean and Soulder
<Frank> thks
<amos> I think it broke out of the range--holding very nicely 4 days--should go to 90
<amos> BTW--if the crude breaks--it wil only hasten the rally in some of the above mentioned--because the CRB is not going to buckly here
<amos> (that is William F. Buckly)
<lmarsh> )
<amos> 0i s right
<amos> )is right
<amos> :((((((?
<Joe K> which would benefit first from a positive crb ?
<Joe K> grains
<lmarsh> what
<Joe K> ?
<amos> The one that will come out of the post with the most vifour
<amos> vigour
<lmarsh> oops
<Joe K> vinager ?
<Joe K> :)
<Frank> there is a head and continuation on the cotton weekly amos
<amos> look for volume and umph for a clue
<Joe K> ok
<amos> The important thing to understand from this vague discussion is that if the grains, gold, cotton etcd....
<amos> do start to rally from here--and the definition is correct-- they all have a very long way to go.
<Frank> watch for things to take a direction about the crop report on the 12th of july
<amos> You aint seen nothing yet--when this baby starts to go--- exactly like the crude,. Gore or no Gore
<lmarsh> I'll agree with that.
<amos> Even CNBC starts tauting commoditieys. I wonder if the CM is already fully loaded
<lmarsh> noticed that
<lmarsh> may move some money, help move the markets in futures
<amos> The trouble with the news--once in a while they ARE right
<gary fullett> what have they mentioned on CNBC?
<amos> That it may be time to move some money into commodities. You should watch this gary.
<Frank> oh s---t, CNBC,,we are goin to mars and drill for water, lol
<amos> Israel already is contracting
<amos> IN Hebrew Mars is the red planet. Now there is such a thing as a red Heifer--which cannot be found--
<amos> but may be on Mars--so that is when the Messiah comes
<lmarsh> I thought there was a red heifer.....
<amos> Not a perfect one. It must be pure.
<gary fullett> isreal contracted for mars water?
<Frank> there might be a few in ireland
<amos> At any rat-- look for an ending action in sll those markets mentioned and
<amos> those that
<amos> give you a nice classical selling climax on the 60 min or the daily--- buy with a relative small stop
<amos> and you do not have to worry about the price of gas
<amos> At least I will, if you do not
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> any other questions for tonight?
<gary fullett> therwise I will callit a night
<gary fullett> if u all dont mind
<Frank> good nite all
<lmarsh> nope, im wore out & my day is just starting : )
User [Frank] left forum on Thu Jun 22 22:30:31 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> me too:)
<gary fullett>
<amos> gn
User [amos] left forum on Thu Jun 22 22:30:39 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> have a great night and weekend
User [gary fullett] left forum on Thu Jun 22 22:30:45 EDT 2000