User [gary fullett /172.158.171.185] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 20:46:14 EDT 2000
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.169] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 20:55:20 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> hey Gary
<lmarsh> good call on the OJ
<gary fullett> hey
<gary fullett> i get lucky sometimes
User [mrj /206.251.171.61] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 20:57:29 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi gary and marsh
<gary fullett> hi mr j
<lmarsh> hello mrJ
<mrj> Gary charts are great
<gary fullett> much better than before
<lmarsh> yes
<mrj> y
<gary fullett> can u read them well?
<gary fullett> easier to download
<mrj> no problem
<mrj> much easier
<gary fullett> good the money was spent well
<lmarsh> yes
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> 1 sec please
<lmarsh> k
<gary fullett> im back
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> I am glad that you got the charts
<mrj> any thoughts on BO
<gary fullett> and they look well
<gary fullett> amos wont be here tonight
<gary fullett> so i will fly solo
<gary fullett> )
<gary fullett> I think bean oil is still fairly weak
<gary fullett> though it holds above key support at the 1600 area
<gary fullett> I think you can be long
<gary fullett> with a stop under the 1540 area
<gary fullett> But if the market breaks soy complex
<gary fullett> oil should not get hit as bad
<gary fullett> as the rest
<mrj> 1540?
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> I would prefer the stop to be under 1500
<gary fullett> but that risk is about 600 bucks
<mrj> seems kind of far
<gary fullett> 60 points 300 bucks?
<mrj> 50 points?
<gary fullett> I would wait for a retest of the 1610 area
<gary fullett> market closed at 1661 today
<lmarsh> The vol & price action on the dec BOZ0 looks somewhat interesting/ promiseing
<gary fullett> buy around the 1610 area
<gary fullett> stop under 1540
<gary fullett> they will focus on dec alot when julty goes into delievery
<lmarsh> that helps , thank you
<gary fullett> what about 50 points?
<mrj> 50 points would be $300 wouldn't it
User [Frank /63.160.52.214] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 21:08:21 EDT 2000
<mrj> hey Frank
<Frank> hi mr j
<gary fullett> u r correct sorry
<mrj> you had typed in 60 points equal $300
<gary fullett> bad multiplication :)
<lmarsh> hi frank
<mrj> :)
<gary fullett> 6 times 60 is 360 in bean oil
<gary fullett> sorry
<mrj> I thought something had changed that I didn't know about :)
<gary fullett> naw
<gary fullett> does that help?
<mrj> thanks
<Frank> hi marsh
<mrj> certainly
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> did u see the wheat today?
<mrj> y
<Frank> y
<gary fullett> I mentoioned this several weeks ago as I thought wheat would take over leadership
<gary fullett> for awhile
<gary fullett> and todays action was certianly
<gary fullett> that way !!!
<gary fullett> but I think they are over extended at these levels
<gary fullett> any other questions>?
<lmarsh> really? why?,,...think more accumulation needed on wheat?
<gary fullett> otherwise I will start with the charts?
<gary fullett> I think they may sell wheat and buy the other grains within a day or so
<gary fullett> and unwind this spread
<gary fullett> they way the spread trades appears to me that too many people are long wheat short corn especaialyy
<mrj> still in trading range from 98 If it ever breaks 304---
<gary fullett> and I think it will
<gary fullett> many poelle are very neg
<gary fullett> wheat but I think it is accumulating
<gary fullett> very nicely
<gary fullett> people
<lmarsh> k
User [Guest /207.50.1.132] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 21:15:11 EDT 2000
<mrj> a break above 285 would break that range's trendline
<gary fullett> one of the things that is very difficault for me
<gary fullett> personally
User [Guest] left forum on Tue Jun 20 21:15:21 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> is to have a winning trade
<gary fullett> when it moves sharply and stay thur corrections.....
<gary fullett> like OJ I got out today
<gary fullett> at 8820 area
<gary fullett> the high was 8840 but still looks good
<gary fullett> I always think when they move sharply like that they they will try
<gary fullett> and break the market
<gary fullett> get out weak longs
<gary fullett> and go higher
<gary fullett> most times I am right I think
<gary fullett> but sometimes i miss a move Like i did with sugar was long got out and the market ralllied sharply
<mrj> Gary on wheat volume last two daays not impressive compared to initial up move of 4-27
<gary fullett> that is true but 4 /27
<lmarsh> good eye!
<mrj> 4-28 rather
User [gary /172.158.171.185] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 21:19:09 EDT 2000
<gary> sorry
<gary> got knocked out
<gary> so this lighter volume to me
<gary> is bullish longer term
<gary> but I wuld expect a pullback based on spreads
<gary> sellig wheat and buying other grains
<mrj> k
<gary> cocoa
<gary> this was a vry interesting chart
<gary> the chart is very choppy
<gary> I think this is accumaultion
<gary> but many times supply or selling comes in
<gary> when one should see it
<gary> should nt see it that is
<gary> today was very interesting action
<gary> I think it is at a critical juncture!!!
<gary> the horizonatl support
<gary> at 810 in july was tested today
<gary> this was the floor of the trading range ver the past 2 months
<lmarsh> yep
<gary> but todays reaction from the lows was the best from this level
<gary> compared to the others
<gary> so deamnd came in when it shouild have
<gary> now u will notice that the chart took out the sloping support
<gary> at about 823 area
<gary> that is why horizontal support reisatnce demand
<gary> and supply
<gary> is very important
<Frank> what month Gary?
<mrj> Gary you're referring to trading range from 5-18 as area of acccumulation?
<gary> so a long form this support with a 30 point or so should have been decent
<lmarsh> july, Frank
<gary> I mnetioned this to several people today it was awful the first hour trading as it went stright down
<Frank> thks marsh
<gary> this was designed to take out stops and weak longs
<gary> under that sloping tendline
<gary> July
<gary> Frank
<gary> yes Mr j
<gary> with a larger picture
<gary> from april lows
User [Joe K /172.134.136.124] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 21:27:47 EDT 2000
<Joe K> hey everyone
<lmarsh> hi Joe
<gary> hey Joe what do u know
<gary>
<gary> so this demand from support was good
<mrj> You have marked today's action as a "spring" but it didn't go below the 206 low and then close within range Can you remove my confusion
<gary> and the market reacted
<mrj> Hi Joe
<gary> 206?
<gary> 806?
<Joe K> subject
<gary> ccoa july
User [Name already in use /63.160.52.214] joined forum on Tue Jun 20 21:29:18 EDT 2000
<mrj> 806 sorry
<Joe K> k
<gary> okay
<gary> I want to explain
<gary> that
<gary> see that sloping line
<lmarsh> y
<mrj> y
<Name already in use>
<gary> it isnt a spring as far as a pentration of a horizontal support
<gary> as we see it
<gary> but
<Joe K> thanks
<gary> I mentioend it because that sloping line is what novice traders use
<gary> and they would put stops under that
<gary> so I used the term to indicate
<gary> a spring of that trend line
<gary> to get weak longs out
<gary> that is what a spring does
<mrj> k
<gary> not the most proper wyckoff spring
<gary> but I wanted to illistarte
<mrj> a spring nonetheless
<gary> why it broke that support
<gary> and closed above it
<gary> so it "sprung" daily support
<gary> okay?
<mrj> I"m un-confused :)
<gary> good
<gary> I thought i ould confuse poeple with this
<lmarsh> I'm following
<Name already in use>
<gary> and when the poel go to the archive they will be un confused as well
<Joe K> Now spring some coffee
<Joe K> lol
<mrj> that's to keep us on our toes :)
<gary> with 250 people reading th archive I am glad that the question was asked
<mrj> lol Joe
<gary> it was to illistrate
<gary> why it broke that sloping trend line
<gary> that is why horizonatl support reistance
<gary> is bettre for demand supply
<gary> if u were long u wouldnt have gotten stopped out
<gary> but if u followed the sloping line
<gary> u would have been stopped out
<gary> most seels stops
<gary> were under 825 I bet today
<gary> sell
<Name already in use> gary the sloping line from where to where?
<Name already in use>
<mrj> from low of 776 to low of 806
<gary> right mr J
<gary> mid april beginning of June
<gary> the high from yesterday
<gary> will be critcal
<gary> then last weeks high can be tested
<mrj> wb frank
<gary> question on cocoa?
<gary> k
<Name already in use> storm shut me down, could not get in with my own name so what u see is what u get
<gary> raining Frank?
<Joe K> lol
<gary> I saw that on the map u r in missouri right?
<Name already in use> using TFC charts
<Name already in use> trying too
<Name already in use> mo yes
<gary> OJ
<Joe K> Watching my Cardinals right now
<Joe K> woops
<gary> probably losing
<Joe K> tied
<Name already in use> month gary?
<gary> july
<gary> weekly
<gary> so it is the front month
<gary> we have talked about this many times
<gary> that OJ was probably accumULATIG
<gary> one of the things I mentioend
<gary> is when a market is bearish
<lmarsh> y
<gary> like OJ was
<gary> and doesnt break
<gary> after a while
<gary> the shorts give
<gary> up
<Name already in use> took off like a rocket today
<gary> and the longs give Up
<gary> no it didnt frank
<gary> yesterday
<Name already in use> ok
<gary> this is one of those chatrts
<gary> that look good and break out that I get out after a large move has begun
<gary> I have some options on but no futures here
<gary> this large sideways action is Huge
<gary> for 6 months
<gary> this could be the beginning of a move
<gary> or an upthrust
<gary> my feeling is up
<Name already in use> tfc shows todays now, they are early today
<gary> and should be bought
<gary> as a retest of the creek area
<gary> 8550 area
<gary> was up 120 earlier finsihed 40 higher frank
<Name already in use> y
<gary> so this sideways action has built a large cause
<gary> and it could be a large move if the weeklies close well
<mrj> Gary would you say price has broken the down trendline from highs of 105.55,99.20 and 92.25?
<gary> we have beaten this chart up
<gary> u see the action
<gary> appears to have done this
<gary> relieze in 2 weeks this market has rallied 700 points
<gary> so a dcent move
<gary> if noiot in I would wait for a retes of the breakout creek area
<gary> questions on OJ?
<lmarsh> none here
<mrj> 88 level looks critical going back to 2-99
<gary> also u have some ice
<gary> from last oct
<gary> but also remeber u have alot of sideways action
<gary> so if bullish
<gary> this market can cut thru
<gary> resistance like butter
<gary> is it raining in Florida?
<gary> if so the market doesnt know it :)
<lmarsh> dont know : )
<Joe K> Gary we import not export to much OJ
<gary> we do?
<Joe K> So weather in Brazil might be important
<gary> from where?
<gary> frost:)
<Joe K> Brazil would be one
<Joe K> we do export, but not that much
<Joe K> But Wyckoff wise Im looking at this a sheer technical rally
<gary> k
<gary> thank u
<Joe K> nothing really fundamentaly different
<gary> the market should close well for th week if this breakout is to be maintianed
<gary> otherwise it will be an upthurst
<Joe K> Did you talk about Wheat already ?
<gary> questions on Juice
<gary> I am talking about the grains next
<Joe K> k
<gary> for about 15 mminutes
<gary> then I need to take a bathe
<gary> and talk with my clients in ukraine
<lmarsh> : )
<gary> it is 6am
<gary> there thye will be coming home from the bars then :)
<Joe K> lol
<Joe K> drunk and talking trade
<gary> always
<gary> seriously
<Joe K> im sure
<gary> okay
<Joe K> i do it
<gary> lets talk wheat
<mrj>
<gary> I have snet htis chart many times
<gary> sideways from November see this
<gary> wheat never rallied with the other grains
<gary> that is becuase wheat is being harvested now
<gary> and itsnt affected by the drought talk
<gary> so it didnt rally
<gary> thus it didnt break as well when rain came
<gary> but sideways for a long time
<gary> 7 months !!!
<gary> the reaction from support is good now in wheat
<gary> we have taken out 2 week highs today
<gary> looks bullish to me
<gary> longer term !!!
<gary> tlast weeks lows
<gary> shouldnt be take out/
<gary> this where a protected stop should be placed if long now
<gary> wheat hasnt begun to move yet
<gary> and there is alot of talk on it
<gary> so 290 area
<gary> is critical resistance
<gary> may highs
<gary> support 260
<gary> 290 resistance
<gary> questions?
<lmarsh> looks good
<gary> good
<gary> I ant to discuss somehting with u
<gary> that is important from my perspective
<gary> put away the charts for tomorrow
<gary> it is about the energiies
<gary> remember I said that the high gas prices
<gary> it is to slow the economy
<gary> down
<Joe K> yes
<gary> instead of raising rate
<gary> they hit u in the pocket books
<gary> raise gas less traveling less spending
<lmarsh> y
<gary> slows the economy
<gary> instead of more rate hikes
<gary> it is the governemt ( imho) that is doing this on purpose
<gary> OPEC will relaese more gas
<gary> oil
<gary> but it wont reflect too much at the pumps
<gary> but u will see
<gary> that gas prices go Down before the election
<gary> why do u think
<gary> the US doesnt
<gary> realese oil reserves
<gary> and have lower prices
<gary> becaiuse they know it is artifically
<gary> inflated to slow the economy
<gary> Gorree know that he must have it lowerd
<gary> or he wont be elected
<Joe K> lol
<gary> Gas here is almost as expensive as a Pack of cigareetes
<gary> u will hear about this
<lmarsh> : )
<gary> so gas will probably peak within the month then break
<gary> oil should be about 24 bucks
<gary> that is my political statement!!!!!!!!!
<gary> they will lowe rit before the election
<gary> Chicago most exp gas in the country
<lmarsh> I'll agree with your analysis :)
<gary> want to hear what our governor said about it?
<gary> he said if u dont like high gas prices...
<gary> take a Bus!!
<Joe K> I vote for Gary for president
<gary> what an a...s
<gary> I drive to work and it stinks :)
<gary> kidding :)
<lmarsh> I think the same of my govener
<gary> our other political leader said Dont drive
<Joe K> so higher gas prices forces us to trade better
<gary> :)
<gary> sell engergies
<gary> and they will buy something else
<gary> other commodities
<Joe K> lol
<gary> I am serious
<gary> money has No home
<gary> any questions?
<gary> I need to make several calls tonight
<mrj> n
<gary> so if there are no questions I will see u all tomorrow night
<gary> and we will go over the other grains
<Joe K> thanks goodnight all
<lmarsh> ok, gary . Thanks see ya tomorrow
<mrj> good night guys
<gary> thank you all good night good folks
User [gary] left forum on Tue Jun 20 22:16:24 EDT 2000