User [gary fullett /172.145.67.92] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 20:58:43 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> good evening sir
<gary fullett> thank you for that email address
<mrj> hi Gary
<gary fullett> how r u
<mrj> you're welcome
<mrj> just looking at charts
User [Joe K /172.138.115.112] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:00:36 EDT 2000
<mrj> hey Joe
<gary fullett> hey Joe
<Joe K> hey guys
<mrj> Joe got a smile on tonight
<Joe K> Not yet
<mrj> k
<Joe K> But OJ is helping
User [mrj] left forum on Mon Jun 19 21:02:05 EDT 2000
User [Frank /63.160.52.241] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:02:09 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> small smile
<Joe K> Ok Gary lets open our book to page 333
User [mrj /209.16.79.162] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:02:30 EDT 2000
<mrj> hey Frank
<Frank> hi mr J
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> give me a few min please
<mrj> k
<Frank> your package leaves in tomarrows mail mr j
<Joe K> Mr J are you in OJ ?
<mrj> thanks Frank
<mrj> no Joe just been following it
<Joe K> k
<Frank> I ordered from Fraser books the neill book sounds interesting mr j
<Joe K> Well coffee is killing me, and Gold is trying me
<mrj> I'm sure you will find it helpful
<Frank> Feeder cattle is fixin to move and so is corn
<mrj> up or down?
<Joe K> lol
<Frank> ?????
<mrj> which direction Frank?
<Frank> duh!!!!!!
<mrj> Joe coffee looks to be in a bear market, huh
<Frank> corn down if it breaks 200
<Joe K> Yup
<Joe K> Been in a Bear market
<Joe K> really
User [Mary /206.72.35.110] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:07:48 EDT 2000
<mrj> corn doesn't look to strong lsast few days
<mrj> last
<Joe K> Just goes to show, trading against a trend
<mrj> Hi Mary
<Joe K> can be hazardous
<Mary> hi everyone
<mrj> agree Joe
<Joe K> hi Mary
<mrj> Mary Gary will be right back
<gary fullett> another few minutes please
<Joe K> Now Gold is making me nervous
<Mary> ok, I just decided to come visit you all
<mrj> It's been a good while Mary
<Mary> yes, crops weren't even planted the last time I was here
<Mary> now they are up and in need of rain
<Frank> aug , and feeder cattle up ifit breaks 8670, and that is july corn
<Frank> aug feeder cattle
<mrj> k Frank
<gary fullett> Im back sorry
<mrj> Mary here to visit Gary
User [amos /62.0.147.32] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:12:05 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I had to place several trades in the grains and talk to several clients
<Frank> got to watch an island reversal possible in aug feeder cattle
<mrj> hi amos
<gary fullett> Hi Mary welcome back
<gary fullett> Frank as well
<amos> hi
<Mary> thanks
<gary fullett> Dont be a stranger :)
<Frank> hi gary amos and any body else i missed
<Joe K> hello all
<Mary> been busy on the farm
<gary fullett> well before we begin are there any questions?
<gary fullett> I bet with planting and all
<gary fullett> have you had a lot of rain?
<Mary> no, we are in the small dry area of Iowa
<gary fullett> what part are you in Mary?
<Frank> you are not the only one in iowa that is dry
<Mary> around Storm Lake, nw central
<gary fullett> Okay I been to Alogonia once
<gary fullett> so u must not be too far I guess
<Mary> Algona?
<gary fullett> yes bad spelling sorry
<gary fullett> any questions?
<Mary> they are wet in that area
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> before we begin are there any questions?
<Joe K> yes at 284 actually,
<Frank> what charts?
<Mary> not really, unless you want to hit some on wheat
<Joe K> yes your right
<gary fullett> have any of you been following the spread of July bean - Nov beans spread?
<Joe K> unfortunately
<Joe K> :0
<gary fullett> charts to be sent tomorow
<gary fullett> The spreads in the beans have been very volitile
<gary fullett> it will be very interesting to see how July fares against the Sept and Nov
<gary fullett> contracts as it goes into delivery
<gary fullett> it appears to me that
<gary fullett> July beasn for wahtever reason is showing much
<gary fullett> strenghth compare to the back months
<gary fullett> this to me means that the big boys
<gary fullett> are making a play for this
<gary fullett> evn though the beans on the daily charts looks bearish
<gary fullett> July is holding up quite well comapred to the backs
<gary fullett> it will be interesting to watch this till the July goes off the board
<gary fullett> I mentioned that lately
<gary fullett> that wheat is the most comstructive grain
<gary fullett> and that it is holding up relative to the rest of the grains
<gary fullett> after todays action u can see why buying strenghth and selling weakness
<gary fullett> is important
<gary fullett> wheay rallied about 7 cents
<gary fullett> as the rest of the grains were lack luster
<gary fullett> 7 cents from the low
<gary fullett> so wheat has some nice accumaltion
<gary fullett> in my opinion here
<Frank> I have not gotten my quotes yet
<gary fullett> does anyone have any specific questions on Grains
<gary fullett> ?
<Mary> not really
<gary fullett> mary since you do some farming do u have an opinion on grains
<mrj>
<gary fullett> shorter term or longer term?
<Mary> they are doing about as one would expect them to do
<Mary> I'm bullish wheat long term
<gary fullett> I agree with that Mary
<Frank> - - !
<gary fullett> I am bullish wheat as well
<Mary> bearish beans and corn short term
<gary fullett> why bullish wheat then due to the winter and the low yields?
<Mary> short term could only maybe be a week though
<gary fullett> short term can be 5 minutes to me :)
<gary fullett> amos any opinion on the grains at these levels?
<Mary> a lot of farmers I've talked with in Neb say their crops are in real bad shape
<gary fullett> I heard that they requested drought relief
<Mary> they said their wheat didn't fill out the heads becasue of the hot dry and windy weather they had a couple of weeks ago
<Joe K> what is fill out the heads Mary ?
<Mary> make the kernal of wheat
<Joe K> thanks city boy here
<Mary> no problem
<Frank>
<gary fullett> and they didnt have rain either did they?
<mrj>
<gary fullett> I want to mention OJ
<Mary> no, and even with thier irragation, the wind and heat evaported it before it got to the ground
<gary fullett> I see
<gary fullett> nebraska grows alot of grain huh?
<Mary> yes
<Mary> top 3rd corn state
<Mary> top 6th bean state
<gary fullett> beans and wheat as well high ranked?
<Mary> and probably 2nd wheat state
<gary fullett> okay thank u
<gary fullett> did everyone see the move in Oj the last 2 days
<gary fullett> we were talking about this chart for the past month
<gary fullett> and we were finally rewarded
<gary fullett> the last several days
<gary fullett> the tightening of the range
<gary fullett> with the volume drying up on breaks
<gary fullett> lead to a constructive rally
<gary fullett> if one was waiting for strenghth
<gary fullett> to buy u had it over the past several days
<gary fullett> it will be interesting to see how the market acts
<gary fullett> when they get into the rainy season in florida
<gary fullett> I hopwe all of you were able to be long for this move
<gary fullett> any questions on the OJ move?
<Joe K> any projected targets
<gary fullett> I think that OJ can get the the 95 area in sept on this move
<gary fullett> weeklies
<gary fullett> as MR j
<gary fullett> pointed out last week
<gary fullett> were constructive
<gary fullett> with higher lows
<gary fullett> amd higher lows
<gary fullett> with oj
<mrj> good resistance at this level
<gary fullett> having its trading range like it is having
<gary fullett> yes I did notice and did liqiuidate some longs today
<gary fullett> and like many markets now
User [Guest /62.0.147.32] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:38:25 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> that they have less volume
<gary fullett> due to summer
<gary fullett> one must be aware of up thursts
User [Guest] left forum on Mon Jun 19 21:38:48 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and springs
User [amos /62.0.147.32] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:39:04 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> because the market has :false moves"
<gary fullett> trying to catch buy and sell stops
<gary fullett> so please be awre of this phenomenon
User [Guest /207.50.1.156] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:40:31 EDT 2000
User [Guest] left forum on Mon Jun 19 21:40:39 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> this is due to the thiness of markets
<gary fullett> To me there isnt alot going on in markets now chart wise
<gary fullett> I think many markets are biding time
<gary fullett> I want to send some longer term charts
<gary fullett> tomorrow so we can get a good idea of where we are at
<gary fullett> compared to the daily ranges
<mrj> Oj hasn't broken monthly down trend
<gary fullett> No it hasnt
<gary fullett> on the daily the market went to new highs in tha past 6 months I believe
<gary fullett> it is interesting
<gary fullett> that u can look at the daily
<gary fullett> weekly
<gary fullett> and monthly charts of OJ
<gary fullett> all lok diferently
<gary fullett> is will give u perspective
<gary fullett> of what is happening
<gary fullett> gold appears to have shown demand
<Joe K> to me the monthly shows an uptrend
<gary fullett> last week again
<gary fullett> silver needs to get above the 523 area
<gary fullett> in the july contract to turn up on the daily chart
<gary fullett>-><amos> any thing i wish to discuss?
<gary fullett> any questions?
<mrj> Gary I think Joe is right about monthly OJ
<Joe K> lows in 97 to lows in 2000
<Joe K> upward trendline
<gary fullett> I thought the trendline came in at 90 area
<gary fullett> need to review this before tomorrow
<Joe K> agreed
<gary fullett> I think what one needs to watch
<gary fullett> is the volume
<gary fullett> of commodities that are making moves
<gary fullett> and see if the volume
<gary fullett> corresponds
<gary fullett> with the price action
<Joe K> was volume higher than 5000 today gary
<amos>
<gary fullett> Amos mentioend to me
<gary fullett> that the heavy volume
<gary fullett> last wednesday
<gary fullett> in the beans could have been Prelimary support
<gary fullett> in the beans
<gary fullett> so over the next few days will be crtical in the grains
<gary fullett> In OJ Joe?
<Joe K> yes
<Joe K> now when you say preliminary support for beans, is this in july or november
<Joe K> spreading is messing me up here
<amos> Joe, the spread has life of its own
<amos> forget it when you talk the basic commodity.
<gary fullett> amos do u want to discuss beans
<Joe K> ok amos
<amos> You do not get volume in spread--so this is a totally different analysis
<amos> But, remember--volume is ALWAYS cumulative volumje in all contracts!
<gary fullett> spreads do have volume
<gary fullett> but this is not the volume we watch
User [Frank /63.160.52.241] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:52:53 EDT 2000
<amos> where do you get data for spread volume?
<Frank>
<Joe K> Where amos ?
<gary fullett> from the exchage
<amos> BTW the potential Ending Action in the beans is only for a rally to the 544 area.
<amos> Still a good move-- but the total view of bullishness is very doubtful at the momonet...
<amos> despite the bullishness of the CRB
<gary fullett> if the enegies break I wonder if that will break the back of the CRB?
<amos> IDK Joe, gary said, so I asked
<Joe K> got it
<gary fullett> can the crb remain strong if the grains become bearish here/.
<gary fullett> ?
<amos> To amplify on what gary said about the beans---if this is ghoing to be a wyckoff type ending action--then last wed was
<amos> a PS and we are looking for a SC. THis could be watched in the next 2-3 days on the
<amos> intraday if you have any. It should show a 60 min internal PS and selling climax.
User [Mary /206.72.35.110] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 21:57:01 EDT 2000
<amos> So it is worth watching.
<gary fullett> amos
<Frank>
<gary fullett> does this ending action in the beans
<gary fullett> have to lead to a selling climax
<gary fullett> since the market had its rally
<gary fullett> and is retesting weekly support
<gary fullett> ?
<amos> Wednesday was a sort of support day. So if it IS and ending action--and Wed was a PS--then we shoud
<amos> see a selling climax coming. strong reversal with high volumed--we need to watch!
<gary fullett> they rest of the grains as well
<gary fullett> or specifically beans?
<amos> It is possible tyhat the rally i9n the WHeat==was a secret signal to professional traders to be ready!
<gary fullett> does wheat look bullish to u now amos?
<amos> NO
<gary fullett> okay
<Mary> why amos?
<mrj>
<amos> Because the trend is down. THis does not mean that we wont have a strong rally. Do not confuse a rally and a trend
<Mary> the trend on the weekly looks sideways
<Mary> same on the monthly
<amos> then we are in a range. so a rally in a range is fine--to the top of the range.
<Joe K> up until dec 99 trend was down
<Mary> so if dec wheat rallies up to around 3.10 I had better collect?
<amos> alms
<gary fullett> is the trend on grains neutral as well than?
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> aims?
<amos> the beans are totally confusing to me. If this is going to be another bearish year--then the month of april -may
<amos> was another bull trap. This is not common--but happens and usually the next year after such a trap is rather bullish.
<amos> Right now- I thinhk the best thing to do is watch the daily action and trade for small swings.
<gary fullett> and that makes lots of sense
<Joe K> can you elaborate on Gold a tad
<amos> all the mechanical systems indicate very oversold situations in the beans...so when the last brave bull gives up--
<gary fullett> tomorrow will be very interesting to me
<amos> we will have a sharp rally. I think that getting into an option is smart for the next few days. Just hope this rally happens, take a small profit and run.
<gary fullett> because tomorrow we are to have lots of rain i t will be interesting if the market holds up
<mrj>
<gary fullett> aug options amos?
<Mary> rain in the eastern corn belt is doing more harm than good for beans
<gary fullett> why is that Mary?
<Mary> beans don't like wet feet
<gary fullett> and where is the eastern corn belt for us city folks?
<gary fullett> does corn like wet?
<amos> Just watch the 4.85 area in Nov beans--will be interesting there!! I am sure
<Mary> it's wet east of mid Iowa
<amos> a lot of professionals would be buying there
<Mary> corn can handle more rain
<Mary> and needs more rain
<gary fullett> and warm weather as well?
<gary fullett> beans like the heat like corn>?
<Mary> really when the front month gets over the back months it's time to be out of shorts
<gary fullett> that is what is happening now
<Mary> beans like the heat better than corn, but corn needs heat also, as long as it's not over 95
<gary fullett> Mary do u have a take on the July November spread?
<amos> The only trick is that there might be a short delay period between that spread signal and the actual action
<gary fullett> I agree amos
<gary fullett> I think the spread is leading the actaul futures
<gary fullett> and is telling
<Frank>
<Mary> the basis at my local elevator has gone from 49 under to 32 under July beans since the first of the month
User [wyatt /166.93.111.115] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 22:13:29 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> hy wyatt
<Mary> so the commercials are wanting the cash beans
<gary fullett> why do u think that is?
<amos> MAry, can you give some extreme data on that spread, historically?
<Mary> not really amos
<wyatt> sorry I'm late..what's the saying ...the faster I go the behinder I get !!
<gary fullett> lol
<amos> Wellcome to Alice land
<wyatt> hi everyone
<gary fullett> mary what does this tell u
<Mary> it's possible maybe a dollar over if I remember correct
<gary fullett> with the basis?
<mrj> hi wyatt
<Mary> gary it tells me not to be short beans
<amos> a dollar over must have been a very bullish year?
<Mary> not necessary to be long either, just don't be short
<Mary> amos probably in 88
<wyatt> hi mrj
<amos> Ok, let us translate , this smart saying" not to be short beans" to action...
<amos> 1. they can sit and do nothing
<amos> 2. THere can be a rally
<amos> 3. THere can be a strong rally.
<Mary> cash beans went to 10.00 and then droped 2.00 before anyone could get out
<amos> So---- either you sell puts once you see a selling climax, you go long on the 60 min climax
<amos> or you buy a call and pray
<Mary> in other words be careful of weather markets
<gary fullett> and we are in waether markets
<gary fullett> will be that way till aug
<gary fullett> beans are harvested in Aug MARY?
<Frank>
<Mary> in 93, bean calls 2.00 out of the money were going for 3 cents about a month later they were 33 cents
<gary fullett> And corn in July?
<gary fullett> wow
<Mary> beans are harvested in late Sept, corn in Oct
<gary fullett> woops
<amos> This is a good title: "From 3 to 33 in a jiffy"
<gary fullett> sorry I was thinking of pollination :)
<Mary> this year could be setting up like 93, remember 93 was the great flood year, and it didn't start till June
<gary fullett> I do remeber
<gary fullett> so u think the drought will urn into a flood now?
<Mary> could be
<Joe K> lol
<Mary> who knows
<Mary> probably flood in eastern belt and drought in western belt
<gary fullett> reciepe for disater huh?
<Mary> in 93 we had 7' of rain in june, 7" in july, 9' in Aug and our corn only yielded 68 bpa
<Mary> normal yield is 150
<Mary> are we were not really flooded
<gary fullett> very interesting
<gary fullett> well we will have to see how the next several days
<gary fullett> pan out
<gary fullett> amos mentioned Prelimary support possibly
<gary fullett> so I think that volume and price action should increase over the next week or so
<gary fullett> does anyone have any questions?
<gary fullett> I will be sending charts
<gary fullett> weekly tomorrow and they will include grains
<gary fullett> as well as OJ
<gary fullett> so tomorrow we will have a lot to discuss
<Joe K> Gold thoughts ?
<gary fullett> Gold has had demand several times
<mrj>
<gary fullett> over the ast few months
<gary fullett> and I believe Gold looks constructive
<gary fullett> here
<gary fullett> I think silver is the key to gold
<gary fullett> it never really turned bullish yet but I believe it will
<gary fullett> I am bullish the metal here
<Frank>
<gary fullett> I think gold still has a target to the 310 area.
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<Mary> no
<gary fullett> today was a casual night
<gary fullett> tomorrow we go back to work with charts :)
<Mary> yes, i didn't mean to take over your class
User [gary /172.145.67.92] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 22:30:42 EDT 2000
<gary> I fully apprecaite it
<gary> I really do
User [joe k /172.138.115.112] joined forum on Mon Jun 19 22:31:07 EDT 2000
<gary> well if there are no more questions
<mrj> volume seems to increase on up moves and decrease on down movews in gold
<gary> I agree and that is why I am bullish gold here
<joe k> thanks mr j
<gary> along with silver
<Mary> goodnite all - have a great day tomorrow
<gary> well I will see u all tomorrow
<joe k> im bullish but trying to find the time frame
<gary> U too mary
<mrj> nite Mary don't be a stranger
<gary> come back :)
<gary> I agree
<gary> should be soon joek
<mrj> good night everyone
<gary> I will see u all tomororw night
<gary> good night
User [Mary] left forum on Mon Jun 19 22:33:10 EDT 2000
User [gary] left forum on Mon Jun 19 22:33:11 EDT 2000