User [gary /172.148.227.44] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 20:51:42 EDT 2000
User [mrj /206.251.168.189] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 20:57:40 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi Gary
<gary> hi mr j
<gary> how r u
<gary> I must say you have a great grasp with wyckoff
<mrj> good and you
<gary> it is a pleasure to see
<gary> been okay
<mrj> thank you I've doing my best
<mrj> I'm
<mrj> good instruction :)
<gary> well im not sure about that
<gary> u r doing the work
<gary> on it so I hope it helps your trading
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.202] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 21:01:28 EDT 2000
<gary> people will be late tonight
<mrj> help to gain additional insight
<mrj> hey lmarsh
<gary> though many people have gotten lazy and just like to read the class logs
<gary> and not come to class
<mrj> agree
<lmarsh> hello,....yeah we've got a T-storm coming, should be on top of us in about 20min.
<gary> but I think I would do the same with the weather getting nicer I can blame them
<gary> it looks cloudy here too
<gary> lots of rain
<gary> flooding could cause dissease
<lmarsh> so if it gets bad...im outa here! just now starting to rain
<gary> opposite of drought
<gary> K
<gary> lamrsh the storms arent fun
<lmarsh> yep, guess that high pressure system gave out finally
<gary> next week all with change with the high weather pressure system
<lmarsh> how much rain did you get near chicago?
<gary> did u see the July nov spread?
<gary> about an inch
<gary> flooding up norht
<lmarsh> not yet, but I
<gary> the spread picked up 12 cents today 500 bucks
<gary> I think with todays action beans have bottomed short term
User [chris /63.15.181.193] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 21:04:59 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> ;ill call it up. coulda shouda dang.
<mrj> hi chris
<gary> the action was volitile big fight between the bulls and the bears
<chris> hi everyone
<gary> u did lmarsh
<lmarsh> hello chris
<gary> it was a 1500 move :)
<gary> hey chris
<gary> oj should move with in a few days
<gary> maybe tomorrow
<gary> the ranges are getting very tight here
<mrj> did you look at weekly continuation chart for last 8 weeks
<gary> on oj?
<mrj> y
<gary> coffee looks like it will have a spring
<gary> yes I did with OJ have been watching it very close
<gary> options are cheap here
<gary> lmarsh
<mrj> nice series of higher lows
<gary> since u are here now and may have to leave I will talk on spreads
<gary> yes
<gary> the seasonal is down
<gary> did anyone get this month stocks and commodities magazine
<gary> techinical anaysis of stocks and commodities?
<mrj> don't read news :)
<gary> me either :)
<mrj> lol
<gary> do u know what website is in the top 10?
<gary> according to the magazine
<gary> it is number 10 to be exact
<mrj> ?
<chris> n
<gary> wyckoffs smi
<gary> i think people want to learn wyckoff and trade stocks
<gary> i can get u a free subsription to the magaine if u wish
<mrj> I never would have guessed SMI
<gary> me either !!!
<gary> I was taking a bath
<gary> and I was thumbing thru it
<gary> and I saw it
<gary> I was shocked
<gary> the course is 892 dollars
<gary> I dont think many buy the course but areinterestrf
<mrj> must be a lot of closet Wyckoff wanna-be s
<gary> interested
<gary> I think they want to know tech analysis
<gary> and wyckoff name comes up thru ken roberts
<gary> Larry williams referrals
<gary> and they look into the site
<gary> though it is a course and I dont think most get it because they dont want to do the homework
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.173] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 21:14:45 EDT 2000
<mrj> tha's what learning invloves---homework in one context or another
<mrj> wb marsh
<lmarsh> bumped
<gary> I know and that is why I dont give trade rec
<gary> but that is what people want
<gary> I dont want to do that
<gary> people must learn to trade right
<gary> but must want a system
<mrj> marsh Gary was telling us that the # 10 web site is Wyckoff's SMI
<gary> and want a definitive buy sell
<gary> anyone want a subscription
<gary> it is free
<mrj> sure
<gary> I can send it to u
<lmarsh> sure, please
<gary> if u go to my site
User [Guest /204.119.225.142] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 21:16:32 EDT 2000
<gary> just fill out the form
<mrj> hi guest
<gary> or write kelly
<mrj> okay gary thanks
<gary> at knorris@ltg0trading.com
<gary> and give her your address
<gary> and she will take care of it
<gary> Free NO obligation
<gary> it is at the site
<gary> so
<gary> let me know if u want it with your info
<gary> hey anything free for u all I am game:)
<mrj> :)
<lmarsh> :)
<gary> I want to talk about spreas
<gary> since lmarsh is interested
<gary> and it is a great topic
<lmarsh> : )
<gary> spreads
<gary> I love spreads
<gary> besides spreads what else would u like me to talk on?
<gary> I have several topics but if u have one I will defer to that
<lmarsh> could i just say one thing aboutt spreads?
<gary> yes
<gary> please do
<mrj> you're the chief we're the indians
<lmarsh> What really interest s me about spreads, is that it's a chart itself, making patters support / resistence. Thats what's got me interested,. may be more trading opurtunites.
<lmarsh> am i correct in thinking this?
<lmarsh> gotta get a spellchecker!
<gary> Yes very good
<gary> spreads
<gary> chart just like the the individual commodity
<gary> they make new highs new lows
<gary> they hold support and resistance
<gary> yes they have risk
<gary> but generally are less risky
<lmarsh> risk is a given!
<gary> always !!!
<gary> risk is always there No matter what type of trade u put on
<gary> okay
<gary> since we have been talking about the July Nov spread
<gary> I will talk baout this spread
<gary>
<gary> many times
<gary> commodities
<gary> when going into delievery the lead month
<gary> will be more bullish
<gary> are not break as much as the back months
<gary> july beans go into delivery in 3 weeks right?
<lmarsh> y
<gary> okay
<gary> so if the Cm
<gary> like a cargil
<gary> ADM
<gary> they may want the product
<gary> specualtors
<gary> should be out by first notice day so they dont get delivered on
<gary> but the cargils of the world
<gary> dont have to get out
<gary> specs dont want to get delievered on
<gary> Cargil doesnt caree because they can sell it
<gary> so far so good?
<lmarsh> I'm following, please continue.
User [Joe K /172.141.123.125] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 21:29:00 EDT 2000
<chris> y
<gary> okay
<lmarsh> hello Joe
<gary> this doesnt mean that beans are bullish
<Joe K> hello everyone
<mrj> hi Joe
<gary> but what it does mean is that someone want July beans relative to NOV
<gary> so...
<gary> this spread can go anywhere when it gets closer to dleivery
<gary> because the cm can push it
<gary> funds and specs dont play july
<gary> the last week or so
<gary> they begin to roll to a new month
<gary> so the cm can squeze this spread
<gary> on of the ways brokerage firms discourage
<gary> people from following them is by raisning margin :)
<gary> so they dont tag along.
<Joe K> serios
<gary> Yep
<Joe K> interesting
<lmarsh> another question: Must spreads observe LTD & such as regular contracts?
<gary> since the weather has been bearish for grains
<gary> people are selling NOV
<gary> Yes
<gary> whena spread trade is made
<gary> the volume can be seen as well
<gary> and it is posted on the board at the exchange
<lmarsh> thought so thanks.
<Joe K> Gary what happens to July, should the Funds start buying November
<Joe K> agressively
<Joe K> and imediate term
<gary> nothing
<Joe K> k
<gary> if the cm want July to increase it wont take much
<gary> to make that spread work
<gary> because everyday that the market goes into delivery the thinner it gets
<gary> who do u think trades July when it it is into delivery?
<Joe K> ahh yes good point
<gary> the CM
<Joe K> thanks
<gary> can buy 100 cotracts and put it limit up
<gary> a spec can sell short into a delivery month till the last day
<gary> but there can be a prob
<gary> what happens is he has to make delievery
<gary> when u are short into delivery month
<gary> u Must MAKE delievery to a long
<gary> but if u dont have the product
<gary> U are in trouble.
<Joe K> cant you pay another fee and side stp that prob
<gary> if u r long u can take delivery
<gary> mucho bucks
<Joe K> k
<gary> if u a re long u do not short Joek
<Joe K> da
<chris>
<gary> so as july gets thinner and thinner into delievery
<gary> the CM can take the spread anywhere
<gary> it is more difficult
<gary> to do when the funds are there
<mrj>
<gary> undersatnd?
<lmarsh> y
<gary> great
<lmarsh>
<gary> so u see why a CM can Create Demand
<gary> with little volume
<Joe K> yes
<gary> and make a ton of money
<gary> are u ging to fight them?
<Joe K> cant afford it
<gary> and they dont have marin requirements like u and I do
<lmarsh> like to ride their coatails
<gary> they are considered hedgers and margins are much less
<Joe K> go with the flow
<gary> than specs
<gary> YEs
<gary> we only can ride coatils
<gary> so in this case the Bull spread is working as the markets Breaks:)
<gary> so if u put on a bull spread it may not work on a rally
<gary> and can work if the market breaks'
<gary> but this generally
<gary> only happens when delievery is near
<gary> for the reason I mentioned
<gary> now the question can be
<gary> doesnt the longs in July have to get out?
<lmarsh> weather is making lots of noise here guys, going to bug out for a bit. be back if i can.
<gary> answer?
<Joe K> no
<mrj> nite marsh
<gary> l malrsh be safe
<lmarsh> yes, specs do
<lmarsh> later
User [lmarsh] left forum on Wed Jun 14 21:44:15 EDT 2000
<gary> yes specs to
<gary> but the Cm doesnt he can
<gary> take delievry
<gary> and resell in the open market
<Joe K> So the comercial is like the dealer in Vegas
<gary> yep
<gary> house advantage
<Joe K> So what ya think tomorrow in beans I think up
<gary> so u see how spreads can be a treemendous advantage
<Joe K> yes
<gary> u dont want to go agaisnt
<gary> this
<gary> u can make some money going against them
<gary> sometimes but overall I think u will lose
<gary> okay?
<gary> I wanted to explain this
<gary> so u can see what is happening
<gary> and why it is probably having sucess
<Joe K> Gary I missed a little though
<gary> questions?
<gary> okay did u have a question?
<Joe K> what is main reason to buy july sell nov again
<chris>
<Joe K> for cms
<gary> cm is that way
<gary> it is appreant to me
<gary> so I would ride thier coatials
<gary> and if u are long July I would saty that way
<gary> instead of any other month
<gary> for as long as u can
<Joe K> ?
<gary> the cm is buying july and selling nov
<gary> overall
<gary> so I would think that this will continue
<gary> till delivery times
<gary> it may not work on several days
<gary> but overall I htink it will work well
<Joe K> would it be fair to asume one could stay longer as a spec with options in july, rather than futures
<Joe K> because of delivery
<Joe K> considerations then
<gary> yes but july option expire before the futures do
<Joe K> k
<gary> yes u could stay long the options till expiration
<gary> question?
<Joe K> tomorrow ?
<Joe K> up ?
<Joe K> :)
<gary> I will go into grain situation
<gary> after spread talk
<gary> I want to talk about the action today
<Joe K> k
<mrj>
<chris>
<gary> okay lets talk about the bean action today
<gary> the market opened up very poor today
<gary> the market held up lower levels
<gary> today until
<gary> it made news lows
<gary> the market then rallied and made new highs
<gary> with july even being up 5 cents
<gary> I entioend to severalclients that I thought
<gary> that july would close higher today
<gary> this was the first day in a long time
User [wyatt /166.93.111.119] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 21:56:40 EDT 2000
<gary> that the market showed demand
<gary> at the end
<gary> the sold Nov and kept July steady
<gary> but the action today
<gary> hey wyatt
<gary> was volitile
<wyatt> hi everyone........sorry i'm late
<gary> and this means that supply finally met demand
<gary> k wyatt no apologies needed;)
<mrj> hi wyatt
<gary> I would think due to tdyas action
<gary> that November will be stronger than july tomorrow
<wyatt> :)) hi mrj
<gary> opposite of the spread Imentioned
<gary> why
<gary> because the shorts are in November now
<gary> and they will vigoursly
<gary> short cover
<gary> more than july
<gary> tin this case a rally will help Nov over july
<gary> because of all the shorts in nov
<gary> but if u go look at the 10 minutes
<gary> chart of the beans today U will see this demand
<gary> but please reliaze the rally is limited from here
<gary> because there is little cause
<gary> though we are at weekly support
<gary>
<gary>
<gary>
<gary>
<gary>
<gary>
<gary>
<Joe K> did volume increase when demand came in
<gary> yes if u look at the intraday chart
<wyatt> it should......
<gary> u will see that demand was evident
<gary> right wyatt,
<wyatt> good do i get an A
<wyatt> lol
<gary> yes sir
<gary> they call me an A everyday :)
<wyatt> sorry one of those days
<gary> but it ends in "e"
<mrj> lol
<gary> with hole somewhere in there :)
<Joe K> i didntmean it though gary
<Joe K> lol
<gary> I know I have been there
<gary> as well
<gary> keep your head up
<gary> u will get it
<wyatt> yes , i agree
<gary> okay
<gary> please look at the intraday today
<gary> and u will see demand
<gary> I would imagine that the beans
<gary> get smetype of rally tomorrow
<Joe K> what is dif in open interest in jul, opposed to nov ?
<gary> a ton
<Joe K> ok
<gary> not sure exactly though
<gary> I want to talk about demand
<gary> and supply
<gary> and I want to talk about
<gary> how does one tell if a market is acting well
<gary> or poorly
<gary> if u dont mind
<wyatt> i watch and see if it moves
<mrj>
<wyatt> well off the support
<wyatt> or does it just mave at a slow pace
<chris>
<wyatt> the market action at this point gives me
<wyatt> a clur as to the strength ...or it's strength
<gary> very good
<wyatt> understand....?
<gary> wyckoff is unique
<Joe K> yes and agree
<gary> because in wyckoff we buy support and sell resisatnce
<gary> so when we identify support
<gary> and if we identify support
<gary> and we are correct
<gary> the reaction
<gary> should be strong with good volume and good price action
<gary> if we have a 5 minute chart
<gary> it MUST react immediatly
<gary> if we look at daily support
<gary> the reaction can take all day
<wyatt> you say it better than i did..lol
<gary> to react but should close well
<gary> it is Not that it is support
<gary> But HOW IT REACTS FROM THAT LEVEL!!!
<gary> I menat the caps
<gary> meant
<mrj> would today's action in BO be an example of this?
<gary> tomorrow bean oil msut react
<gary> to get away from the 1600 area
<gary> it has been here several days
<gary> so when u buy support
<gary> the less time frame
<gary> u look at the faster the reaction should be
<gary> that doesnt mean the Move will be large
<gary> because with a 5 min chart u can expect a great move
<gary> cant
<gary> not can
<gary> But it should react faster than say a daily chart does immediate
<gary> but on a daily support
<gary> u should move farhter
<gary> though not necessarily Faster
<gary> Understand the difference
<gary> Have confidence in what u see and do
<gary> the charts doesnt lie
<wyatt> hummmm talk more about the farther thing
User [Joe K] left forum on Wed Jun 14 22:18:43 EDT 2000
<gary> k
<gary> when u have a 5 minute chart
<wyatt> so to move farther volume would need to
<wyatt> increase ?
<gary> the reaction is fast because it is a short time frame
<gary> not the increase necessarily
<gary> but the reaction at first
<gary> lets take an example
<gary> beans have support at 500
<gary> support
<gary> it on a 5 monute chart
<wyatt> ok looking at it now
<gary> since u have built No cause the reaction may be to only 503
<gary> and then may retest
<gary> to 500
<gary> on a 15 minute
<gary> chart
<gary> so now u have buily cause to rally more
<gary> and the next raly takes u to 505
<gary> because it has now built cause on a 15 minute chart
<gary> noe the market breaks to 502
<gary> and on a 30 minute chart it has a cause up to 508
<gary> but the close it 512
<wyatt> but would you consider the market action over the last 2 days as cause ?
<gary> show on a daily chart it rallied
<gary> to 512
<gary> but a 5 minutes time frame the market only rallied
<gary> to 503
<gary> because of the lack of cause
<gary> but as the market
<gary> tested support
User [joe k /172.141.123.125] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 22:23:13 EDT 2000
<gary> and bulit cause for a strong daily cause
<mrj> cotton has come dow to 56 support level. Would you say it has reacted poorly?
<gary> yes
<gary> but it is building cause for a longer term move
<gary> but not ready yet
<gary> becuiae it did tech damage
<mrj> Gold came up to resistance and seems to have re-acted negatively Your thoughts
<gary> it will stay here for several days
<gary> I think gold acts wonderful
<gary> theysold it from resistance yeterday and today rallied back
<gary> if gold was weak todays action would have been poor
<joe k> looks like it reacted great to me
<mrj> given yesterday's price action and volume?
<gary> but it was wonderful
<gary> Yes but look at the action today
<gary> if that selling was distribution
<gary> gold should have broken today
<gary> it is silver that acts poor
<gary> relative to gold
<gary> yestrday
<gary> the market went to new highs for the recent move
<gary> and was repealeed
<gary> if that was supply
<gary> todays rally would not have happened
<gary> so the action was neg
<gary> yesterday
<gary> but today was great
<gary> I think gold will go to 310 in august
<gary> undersatnd mr J?
<mrj> wasn't confused just wanted your thoughts
<joe k> so todays action reconfirmed strong er demand still present
User [chris /63.15.181.193] joined forum on Wed Jun 14 22:29:51 EDT 2000
<gary> oh i know u werent confused
<gary> I just wanted to give u my thoughts since u asked
<gary> I think so joe
<gary> so when u watch suport
<mrj> I'm glad you did thanks
<gary> or ressiatnce watch for the reaction!!!
<joe k> ?
<gary> if the reaction is poor GET OUT!!!
<gary> yes Joe
<joe k> when gold went down, then moved back up
<joe k> like today
<joe k> how long can we wait
<mrj> ok I know Joe will have an interst here coffee is at short term support comments please
<joe k> until we move support up
<joe k> till its retested
<joe k> ?
<joe k> or can we move support up, without being retested ?
<gary> we should mobve up from here
<gary> because the demand was great yesterday
<gary> the retest was yesterday
<gary> yesterday i feel the market should have been bough
<mrj> also at support level of 10-1-99
<gary> bought
<joe k> well my question is, how much further does support move with demand ?
<gary> huh?
<gary> if it is support we should react strong
<gary> gogd did
<gary> gold
<gary> I want to talk OJ
<gary> for a few min
<gary> then coffee
<gary> oj to me is within a few days of making a move
<gary> above 8400
<gary> I think the market can fly
<gary> if we get a rally with good price increase and volume
<gary> this move can be huge
<gary> in a short period of time
<gary> coffee
<gary> it is interesting
<gary> it is hovereing at support
<gary> the demand seems to be there but is met with supply
<gary> so I think coffee will have a spring of this range
<gary> and rally shrply
<gary> everyome ( most everyone )
<gary> thinks I am nuts
<gary> and that th amrket will go to 75 cents
<joe k> Then call me crazy too
<gary> also there is a seasonal for bearish OJ
<gary> but what I want to say about demand and supply
<gary> and support and resisatnce is the measured reaction from theose areas
<gary> that is very important
<gary> do u understand what I mean?
<mrj> y
<joe k> yes
<gary> great
<chris> y
<gary> are there any questions?
<joe k> what I was asking though, is if demand increases, doesnt support move up ?
<gary> on any thing tonight?
<gary> Yes joe
<joe k> Is there a formula to move it up, by amount of movement ?
<gary> when u have support
<gary> and it reacts from support well
<gary> it is from that area
<gary> that the support should not be violated
<gary> so if gold rallied sharply from 285
<gary> it is the 285 area that is support
<gary> and from there is where demand sets in
<gary> okay?
<joe k> yes sir
<gary> any other questions?
<gary> otherwise I will see u all tomorrow night
<joe k> wheres fibo and fran and amos
<gary> they couldnt make it tonight
<gary> they mentioned it to me eariler today
<joe k> ok
<mrj> good night all
<gary> good night all
<chris> thank you gary, goodnight all
<gary> see u tomorrow
<joe k> good night mr J
<gary> thank u chris
<gary> good night
<joe k> night Chris and gary
User [gary] left forum on Wed Jun 14 22:45:48 EDT 2000