User [gary fullett /172.156.187.5] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:00:38 EDT 2000
User [Jack /63.29.95.34] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:00:45 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> Hi jack
<gary fullett> long time no see
<Jack> hey gary
<Jack> I was in a car accident
<gary fullett> Oh no
<gary fullett> are you okay now?
<Jack> but Im ok now
<Jack> Did you mention before that you sell wyckoff books
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.208] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:02:01 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> they are on the website
<gary fullett> I dot sell them personally
<gary fullett> dont
<lmarsh> hello gary, Jack
<Jack> hi
<Jack> which site is that please
<gary fullett> on the front page of the web site u can see the books
<gary fullett> the ltg-trading.com
<Jack> great
<gary fullett> www.ltg-trading.com
<lmarsh> like the adobe charts gary, just wish I could rotate em, without printing out.
<lmarsh> but that's ok
<gary fullett> u cant do them
<gary fullett> rotating?
User [mrj /209.16.79.72] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:04:20 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi everyone
<lmarsh> yeah like you could on imaging,..rotate 90 degrees
<gary fullett> I thought the adobe charts wuld be good for everyone
<Jack> hello
<lmarsh> hello mrJ
<gary fullett> i mention that to kelly
<gary fullett> that program isnt cheap
<gary fullett> 250 bucks !!!!!
<lmarsh> Yeah their good, great!, only thing I could whine about was the not being able to rotate :^)
<lmarsh> I'll quit whining. :)
<gary fullett> but I wanted to have good charts
User [lavona /207.50.1.139] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:06:07 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> that si okay whine
<lavona> hello everyone
<gary fullett> I want impute
<lmarsh> hello lavona
<Jack> the charts are nice
<gary fullett> so if it needs to be rotaed and I can do that I will
<Jack> that would be nice
<lavona> did you notice the high volume in corn today
<mrj> hi Lavona
<gary fullett> I have the answer to your question lmarsh
<lmarsh> what was it Lavona?
<gary fullett> click on document
<lmarsh> great gary,...
<gary fullett> then click roate
<gary fullett> in adobe acrobat reader
<mrj> 70000 estimated
<gary fullett> yes I did lavona
<gary fullett> very high
<lavona> Don't have the number at my desk but it was the highest since the high in May\
<gary fullett> I have estomated volume of 72k
<lavona> could this mean we are in wave 3 ???
<gary fullett> I am sorry i rechecked it was 69,700
User [chris /63.14.220.208] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:10:29 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> I must have an old version of abobe, when i right click i don't get the "rotate" option
<mrj> hi chris
<gary fullett> can u download the new version from my site lmrsh?
<lavona> hi chris
<chris> hi Marsh, everyone
<gary fullett> okay did everyone get the charts?
<Jack> y
<lavona> everytime I get on chat someone calls are comes later if I can
<lmarsh> I will do gary,
<chris> y
User [lavona] left forum on Tue Jun 13 21:11:49 EDT 2000
User [amos /62.0.147.68] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:12:09 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> any questions?
<lmarsh> hello amos
<amos> hi
<gary fullett> I want to talk about the july Nov bean spread
<gary fullett> I sent weekly charts
<gary fullett> but first I want to discuss
<gary fullett> the spread that we mentioned last night
<gary fullett> I ask quite a few people on ths spread last night
<gary fullett> Fran was correct in what she said
<gary fullett> that the demand for the july beans
<gary fullett> is termendous
<gary fullett> and that they need the july
<gary fullett> beans
<gary fullett> for the meal
<gary fullett> based in the crush spread
<gary fullett> from beans
<gary fullett> there are 2 products
<gary fullett> soybean oil
<gary fullett> and soymeal
<gary fullett> today the meal was higher as all the grains were lower
<gary fullett> And
<gary fullett> the july gained 2 more cents
<gary fullett> on November
<gary fullett> this to me is bull spreading
<gary fullett> but i find is interesting
<gary fullett> that as of right now novemeber is 4 cents cheaper than July
<gary fullett> Nov is at 506 july at 510
<gary fullett> this may mean that Nov has alot of supply
<mrj>
<lmarsh>
<gary fullett> that is what I found out
<Jack>
<gary fullett> and it appears to me that this spread can increase more
<chris>
<lmarsh> good work,
<gary fullett> as July goes into delivery in almost 3 weeks
<gary fullett> maybe they will squezze the July :)
<gary fullett> like Mr whipple squezzed the charmin :)
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment on the that spread other than last night?
<lmarsh> cool
<amos> I do not have the chart, did not have time to look. But the relationship of the spread and the individual contracts--can be lagging or leading...
<amos> In general your statements are correct--I am not sure what the meaning is here..... You cannot say that there is demand for July!!!
<gary fullett> do u fiind that that spread tends to do this at this time of yr?
<gary fullett> I mean Demand relative to Nov
<amos> but the turning of the spread is usually positive.... I do not know the seasonality of the spread
<gary fullett> Not demand that is bullish for beans
<amos> The spread is a trade in itself...Goldberg wrote a very good book about spread trading and it stands as a business in itself.
<gary fullett> I am not saying beans will rally
<gary fullett> from here but that july may remain strong relative to Nov
<Jack>
<gary fullett> goldberg?
<gary fullett> name of the book>?
<chris>
<lmarsh> Gary, I pulled up tradesignal .com & then interactive java charts on the july/nov spread the line is
<lmarsh> bullish
<lmarsh> very
<amos> trading spreads for profits, or somthing like this,. thin with green hard cover.
<gary fullett> okay great
<gary fullett> but I wanted to tell u what i found
<gary fullett> out about that spread
<gary fullett> it is an interesting spread
<gary fullett> especilally nowadays
<gary fullett> questions on that spread?
<amos> "Advance Commodiy Spread Trading" Harold GOldberg. Windsor Books N.Y.
<gary fullett> thanx
<lmarsh> question on spread in general, on this bull spread, will you continue to make money as long as the gap in prices increase regardless if markets go up or down?
<gary fullett> well there are several ways to make money on spreads
<gary fullett> let say u are long july short nov
<lmarsh> k
<Jack>
<gary fullett> that is a bull spread
<gary fullett> so if the both go up
<gary fullett> u want july to go up faster than Nov
<gary fullett> if the market goes down
<gary fullett> u will make money
<gary fullett> if Novemeber goes down more than
<gary fullett> July
<gary fullett> Now the spread shouldnt work
<gary fullett> if the market breaks
<gary fullett> in a bull
<gary fullett> spread
<gary fullett> but it can
<gary fullett> like today
<gary fullett> nov down 1 /4
<gary fullett> July down 1 /4
<gary fullett> sorry
<gary fullett> Nov down 2
<gary fullett> so even in a bull spread u would have made money on the move lower today
<gary fullett> does that help lmarsh?
<lmarsh> yes, Thanks!
<gary fullett> does everyone understand that?
<gary fullett> on spreads?
<Jack> y
<gary fullett> not all the time when u are in a bull spread will it work
<gary fullett> if the market goes dow
<gary fullett> down
<gary fullett> or goes up
<gary fullett> but If I were to buy beans short term
<gary fullett> I would buy july over november
<gary fullett> because of the stenghth of that spread
<gary fullett> someone is supporting that spread
<gary fullett> and we as traders
<gary fullett> want to buy the stronger of the 2 months
<gary fullett> understand?
<lmarsh> yes
<Jack> y
<amos> how far can the spread go?
<gary fullett> how do I know?
<gary fullett> if the keep buying july relative
<amos> it is at 4 tonite--what is recent high? 15? 30?
<gary fullett> to nov
<gary fullett> I am not sure I havent strdied the spread yet
<gary fullett> I will check and report back
<amos> what if 5 cents was the recent high?
<gary fullett> going into delievery
<gary fullett> I would imagine that this spread can increase alot
<gary fullett> if they want the july beans
<gary fullett> generally if it isnt in the dleivery month
<gary fullett> within a month
<gary fullett> it can be limited
<gary fullett> but within the last month june
<gary fullett> for july beans
<gary fullett> they can move this spread much more
<gary fullett> the strong hands
<gary fullett> can hold july beans for a long time
<gary fullett> relative to the public....
<chris>
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> I senrt weekly charts
<gary fullett> because I felt that some markets are in critical junctures
<gary fullett> okay
<Jack>
<gary fullett> lets take OJ
User [mrj /209.16.79.72] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:38:36 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> this is a amrket
<gary fullett> that has been going sideways for the past 6 months
<gary fullett> I mention this chart
<gary fullett> because
<gary fullett> of the trading range
<gary fullett> that it has enetered into over the past 6 months
<gary fullett> as u can see
<gary fullett> resisatnce
<gary fullett> is about 8500
<lmarsh>-><mrj> talking oj mrj
<gary fullett> and the support is at the80-81
<gary fullett> area
<mrj>-><lmarsh> gotcha!
<gary fullett> this is a tight range
<mrj>-><lmarsh> thanks
<gary fullett> relative to the time that it is spendiing
<gary fullett> the move will be a large move when it occurs
<gary fullett> to me
<gary fullett> the market has spent to much
<gary fullett> time in this area
<gary fullett> to be bearish
<gary fullett> because i fel that if it was bearish it would have done so already
<gary fullett> and break lower
<gary fullett> I have 2 scenerios
<gary fullett> of this market
<gary fullett> either it breaks above 8500 and rallies
<gary fullett> from here
<gary fullett> or the market breaks under the 80-8100
<gary fullett> and makes a spring then rallies
<gary fullett> I dont think the market
<gary fullett> will break and make another leg to the downside
<gary fullett> question On Oj?
<Jack> n
<gary fullett> do u see the support and the resistance
<Jack> y
<lmarsh> yes
<gary fullett> do u see the horizontal
<gary fullett> trading range
<gary fullett> as u can see
<gary fullett> that trying to dtermine when the market will breakout
<gary fullett> is difficult
<gary fullett> the CM will wear and tear u
<gary fullett> so u are not in when the market ultimatley
<gary fullett> makes its move
<mrj> you have higher bottoms
<gary fullett> so one never knows if the range will last 1 month
<gary fullett> 4 months
<gary fullett> or yr
<gary fullett> or longer
<gary fullett> at this juncture yes Mr J
<gary fullett> that is why I am leaning towards the next major move to the up rather than the downside
<gary fullett> e can make a spring of this range though
<gary fullett> ideallly
User [Joe k /172.161.131.134] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 21:46:25 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> the cm may want to wash the weak longs
<gary fullett> then start its rally
<mrj> horizontal line across tops with rising bottoms --ascending triangle (non- Wyckoff)
<gary fullett> what does that tell u Mr J?
<gary fullett> hey Joek
<Joe k> good evening
<lmarsh> hello joe
<lmarsh> good eye mrj
<Joe k> topic ?
<mrj> prices should break-out to upside
<gary fullett> oj
<chris>
<mrj> doesn't mean they will
<gary fullett> amos comment on Oj if u have one?
<gary fullett> of course mr J
<amos> did not look at chart.
<mrj> :)
<gary fullett> my best trades have been when I didnt have a great opinion
<gary fullett> whe n I "am sure " of a trade
<gary fullett> I lose
<gary fullett> when I trade it with a biased opinion I do okay
<lmarsh> one must be somewhat biased to trade at all, correct? But we must also keep our eyes open!
<gary fullett> u r right
<gary fullett> what I mean to say
<gary fullett> is that when I really think I have a greta trade on
<gary fullett> it soesnt turn out that way
<gary fullett> of course when u r long u r biased to the long side
<gary fullett> but when I think I have a great trade on
<gary fullett> and it :cant lose "
<gary fullett> it genrally does
<gary fullett> when i buy support looking for a move but not a great one
<gary fullett> it eems like I do better
User [amos] left forum on Tue Jun 13 21:52:05 EDT 2000
<Joe k> Are you noticing any volume fluctuations in OJ ( magnitude )
<gary fullett> not alot
<gary fullett> but i think soon it will move
<gary fullett> questions on OJ
<Joe k> On the weeklys
<Jack> n
<Joe k> Ive noticed
<gary fullett> watch this chart!!!!!
<Joe k> most sideways channels
<gary fullett> questions?
<mrj> yes
<Joe k> are about a month
<Joe k> in duration
<gary fullett> why?
<chris>
<Joe k> accumulation time span ?
<Joe k> dont know
<mrj> volume on 6-7 was 5107 since it has been 1710, 2200, 1911 through yesterday looks like a good sign?
<gary fullett> I think so
<mrj> close for last four -five days within about a point of each other
<gary fullett> I think that above 8415 we will work much higher
<mrj> no downward pressure?
<gary fullett> that is correct mr J
<gary fullett> supplly seems to be lacking here
<gary fullett> there are stops abobe 8500
<gary fullett> and under 80
<gary fullett> in my opinion
<Jack>
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> Coffee
<Joe k> crying
<mrj> gary one more thing on OJ
<gary fullett> dont cry over spilled milk not coffee
<gary fullett> okay pleasemr j
<mrj> if you look at a weekly continuation chart back to 8-99 looks like we are developing a symetrical triangle
<mrj> not Wyckoff
<gary fullett> and?
<Joe k> It is a triangle
<Joe k> theres also head and shoulders on weeklys
<mrj> just wanted to point it out to calss
<mrj> class
<gary fullett> I undersatnd and thank u
<Joe k> lol
<gary fullett> understand
<gary fullett> is it bullish or bearish in your opinion
<mrj> what's funny Joe?
<Joe k> how ify market appears
<mrj> don't know until it breaks out
<mrj> k
<Joe k> agreed
<Joe k> gary go ahead
<gary fullett> I was just wondering if that triangle had any signiicance
User [Jack] left forum on Tue Jun 13 22:02:26 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> to me the most likley scernerio
<gary fullett> is that we have a shakeout
<gary fullett> then a spring
User [gtb /216.228.36.48] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 22:03:02 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and a rally thru the next few months
<Joe k> Look at 97 in OJ
<Joe k> weekly
<gary fullett> the count to me is over 15 cents
<Joe k> almost same type of triangle
<gary fullett> so i dont think oj
<gary fullett> will go to under 70 cents
<Joe k> result, breakout North
<gary fullett> more likely to near a buck
<gary fullett> 90-9500 area
<Joe k> Do you see that ?
<gary fullett> Yes I do...
<Joe k> cool
<gary fullett> it may happen ober the next 3-6 months
<gary fullett> but I feel the market has more upside room than downside.....
<Joe k> would agree
<gary fullett> good now lets tell the market :)
<lmarsh> : )
<gary fullett> thank u mr j
<gary fullett> for your impute
<gary fullett> on OJ
User [Guest /204.119.225.174] joined forum on Tue Jun 13 22:05:56 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> any other questions on OJ?
<mrj> you're welcome
<chris>
<gary fullett> Coffee
<gary fullett> this is a very interesting chart as well
<gary fullett> look back at last
<gary fullett> sept
<gary fullett> the low at the 90 area
<lmarsh> k
<gary fullett> then the market had a sharp rally
<gary fullett> to the 150 area
<gary fullett> do u see this?
<Joe k> yup
<mrj> y
<gtb> y
<lmarsh> y
<gary fullett> pretty impressive rally
<chris> y
<Joe k> was a drought
<gary fullett> how long did it take to rally to 150?
<gary fullett> forget the nws
<Joe k> 3 months
<Joe k> 4
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> look how long it is taking to retest
<gary fullett> the lows again
<gary fullett> how many months?
<Joe k> 6
<Joe k> Dec to June
<lmarsh> 2 months to rally & 6 to retest.....
<gary fullett> so is it going up faster then it is going down?
<gary fullett> very good lmarsh
<gary fullett> goes down slower
<gary fullett> rallies faster
<gary fullett> this rally to me is demand
<gary fullett> and the retest
User [Guest] left forum on Tue Jun 13 22:12:08 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> in a longer time basis
<mrj>
<gary fullett> so this area
<gary fullett> is critical support
<gary fullett> we can support
<gary fullett> spring
<gary fullett> not support
<gary fullett> let me begin again
<lmarsh> :)
<gary fullett> we can spring the support at the 90 area
<gary fullett> maybe to 8600
<gary fullett> then rally sharply
<gary fullett> just like the possiblity in the oj markt
<gary fullett> but u can well see that this is support... at the high 80'
<gary fullett> low 90 area
<gary fullett> do u see this support
<lmarsh> y
<Joe k> y
<gary fullett> and do u see what I am talking about
<chris> y
<gary fullett> whn I see demand
<gary fullett> and the slow retest
<gary fullett> that is what a trend is
<gary fullett> simply
<gary fullett> the path of least resisatnce
<gary fullett> if a mrkt goes up faster than it goes down
<gary fullett> that is bullish
<gary fullett> and vice versa
<gary fullett> in this case it appears the market is going up faster than going up
<gary fullett> u may say
<gary fullett> if bullish why did the market go all the way back
<gary fullett> why didnt it stop half way back
<gary fullett> answer is I dont know
<gary fullett> but this is support
<gtb> basing?
<gary fullett> I believe that coffee is retesting support
<gary fullett> and this is longer term accumaultion
<gary fullett> so basing as in accumaltion
<gary fullett> I say yes
<gary fullett> in my opnion
<gtb> y
<gary fullett> questions on coffee
<Joe k> 1
<Joe k> Weird thing too
<mrj> comment on volume of 4-12,13,14,17,and 18
<Joe k> every major move on monthlys
<gtb> weekly chart
<gary fullett> this to me was stopping volume
<lmarsh>
<chris>
<Joe k> has always inclined downward
<gary fullett> even though we are lower than that point now
<Joe k> until last 2
<gary fullett> it did rally from that volume
<Joe k> Coffee has very strong ties to fundamentals
<gary fullett> so to me this is longer term bullish
<gary fullett> I think we may spring coffee as well
<Joe k> agree
<gary fullett> cocoa
<lmarsh> good subject
<gary fullett> cocoa
<gary fullett> also is in a trading range
<gary fullett> and this range
<gary fullett> has been as long as the OJ chart
<gary fullett> so this move will be large as well
<gary fullett> see thiis
<mrj> y
<lmarsh> y
<lmarsh> we've had good volume on the rallys
<gary fullett> demand
<gary fullett> this market is interestin
<gary fullett> because if u go back
<gary fullett> this market
<gary fullett> made its low before sugar
<gary fullett> then rallied as sugar made its lows
<gary fullett> and look at sugar now
<gary fullett> I think that
<gary fullett> cocoa will do what the sugar market is doing now
<gary fullett> after it breaks out of this range
<gary fullett> it is an exotic market like OJ
<gary fullett> sugar ect
<gary fullett> so i fel that this will have a run up as well
<gary fullett> after the accumaltion phase is complted
<gary fullett> support 780
<gary fullett> ressiatnce
<gary fullett> about the 900 area
<gary fullett> count takes u to about 1100 area
<chris>
<gary fullett> so a nice move can occur
<mrj> did we have an upthrust Friday?
<lmarsh>
<gary fullett> well we had a retest of rcent highs
<gary fullett> and it ppread
<gary fullett> to be an upthrust
<gary fullett> appeared
<gary fullett> but i think this upthrust wont lead to new lows
<gary fullett> but to accumaltion near these areas
<mrj> k
<gary fullett> then a move above recent highs
User [gtb] left forum on Tue Jun 13 22:30:58 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> I will go over the grains tomorrow
<gary fullett> as I want to discuss them more in detail
<gary fullett> and we are missing some peole tonight
<lmarsh> sounds good
<Joe k> cool
<gary fullett> that way we can discuss this important junture
<gary fullett> with a long discussion
<gary fullett> so we can catch the next move
<gary fullett> any qiestions?
<gary fullett> other
<gary fullett> wise I will see u all tomorrow
<Joe k> goodnight and thanks
<lmarsh> ok thanks gary
User [Joe k] left forum on Tue Jun 13 22:34:27 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> okay good night all see u all tomorrow
<mrj> gn all
<gary fullett> thjanx mR j
<lmarsh> I'll work up some more spread questions next class
<gary fullett> for the impute
<mrj> k
<gary fullett> please do
<gary fullett> I will sen spread charts as well lamrsh
<chris> good night all
<gary fullett> I didnt forgetb the
<gary fullett> night chris
<mrj> thanks for help Gary
<gary fullett> I try :)
<gary fullett> thank u
<gary fullett> night al
User [gary fullett] left forum on Tue Jun 13 22:35:22 EDT 2000