User [gary fullett /172.137.208.96] joined forum on Mon Jun 12 21:01:30 EDT 2000
User [mrj /209.16.79.214] joined forum on Mon Jun 12 21:01:39 EDT 2000
<fibo> hi gary hi mrj
<gary fullett> hi
<mrj> hi fibo and Gary
<gary fullett> rain rain rain
<fibo> yes! we finally had 1.1 here more all around
<fibo> the first since March
<gary fullett> really
<fibo> yes. it was very dry.
<gary fullett> lots of rain here
<fibo> hope your lawn is in tact
<fibo> how is it there mrj?
<gary fullett> looks like a baseball field
<gary fullett> the grass is filling in
<fibo> a nice grassy one? or grass and bare?
<fibo> good on the filling in
User [fran /209.100.190.137] joined forum on Mon Jun 12 21:05:03 EDT 2000
<mrj> some rain typical summer showers
<mrj> hi fran
<fran> hi everyone
<gary fullett> i bet the grains have never lookd bettre
<fibo> hello frannie
<fran> hi fibo
<gary fullett> did u see the spread
<gary fullett> nov and july beans?
<fran> yes
<fran> they want beans NOW
User [Joe K /172.128.83.92] joined forum on Mon Jun 12 21:08:05 EDT 2000
<fibo> why because they are so close?
<gary fullett> th spread went out 6 cents today
<Joe K> Good Mourning
<mrj> hi joe k
<gary fullett> I am so confused
<gary fullett> with that spread
<fibo> hi JoeK
<fran> yes fibo
<Joe K> hello all :)
<gary fullett> why do they want july beans?
<fibo> k
<fran> the basis has gone from -30 to -15.5 as of tonite
<fran> in the last 3 weeks
<fran> who's accumulating?
<Joe K> Me a headache
<Joe K> :)
<gary fullett> I donrt know why do they want july beans?
<fran> demand
<mrj> I saw a post today that ADM got 1000 from Refco
User [amos /62.0.147.106] joined forum on Mon Jun 12 21:11:09 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> interesting
<fran> hard to make meal out of beans that are in the field yet gary
<gary fullett> but they arent in delievery yet
<fibo> welcome back amos
<gary fullett> it is strange
<amos> tks
<fran> hi amos
User [Guest /152.175.254.229] joined forum on Mon Jun 12 21:11:36 EDT 2000
<Joe K> Amos can you explain this bean controversy
<gary fullett> they want it for the meal fran?
<fran> yes
<gary fullett> is that bullish?
<gary fullett> Hi amos
<amos> I just came in from the cold--what controversy?
<gary fullett> nice to see u again
<fran> long run demand is always bullish isn't it?
<gary fullett> I was asking about the July nov spread
<Joe K> why big dogs are wanting July Beans
<gary fullett> the spread moved 15 cents in 3 weeks
User [Guest] left forum on Mon Jun 12 21:12:40 EDT 2000
<amos> what is recent hi in the spread?
<gary fullett> 30 fran mentioned
<fran> that is basis gary...not spread
<gary fullett> sorry u r right
<gary fullett> I was thinking
<gary fullett> the spread closed at even money today
<gary fullett> I think it was 10
<amos> when was the last time this happened? I do not have this chart
<gary fullett> I have to research it
<gary fullett> I dont know
<gary fullett> I watched the spread
<gary fullett> and it moved in 6 cents today
<fran> well it isn't bearish...
<amos> without looking at historical chart of the N/X spread--I cannot say.
<mrj>
<gary fullett> but they went to new lows today over the last 2 months
<gary fullett> amos any opinion on the grains?
<fran> the elevators are wanting to buy now......why
<Joe K> Well lets look at it hypathetically, and evaluate with rough numbers
<amos> On one hand they took all the premuim out of nov, on the other hand--when front month leads back-- it can be bullish..
<amos> but not in a bear market--I cannot answer this intelligently now.
<gary fullett> they retraced the whole move
<fran> do you think they would improve basis if they didn't want the beans?
<Joe K> dont sound like they would
<fran> they are trying to accumulate...I think
<gary fullett> amos opinion on the grains
<gary fullett> ?
<amos> Gary, I have been out of it for a while.
<fibo> is this the beans that is in storage they want to buy?
<fran> yes fibo
<amos> It is sad that we (I) was so bullish here during May. This is past.
<fibo> k
<Joe K> wonder if their leaning towards front month, and debating selling the further out ?
<amos> What to do now--is to wathc the double bottom in sept corn at 516 and evaluagte.
<fran> not beans on paper...the real thing
<Joe K> Or am I way off here
<fibo> what is at 516 amos?
<amos> 515-3/4 is recent low in CU
<fran> ?
<fibo> i don't think so.. it may be 215 :-)
<fibo> you were thinking beans & writing corn . I do that too somtimes
<amos> yes, sorry. I am still in a 3 step time lag
<Joe K> in Dec ?
<fibo> that's o.k.
<fibo> sep
<Joe K> no month low was made 2.15
<fibo> sep corn low was 215.75
<amos> I have not looked deeply into charts for the past 2 weeks.
<Joe K> date ?
<gary fullett> okay
<mrj> week of 12-27
<fibo> 12-13-99
<Joe K> yes December
<mrj> sorry 12-17
<amos> I just glanced for a few minutes today and the recent bottoms are being tested--so that is
<amos> the only thing to do with grains--just sit and watch what happens near these bottoms.
<amos> I would not trade it right now more than a small scalp--
<fran> fibo...do you pre volume for today?
<fibo> just a sec & i'll look
<amos> The other sad thing that I said was that I did not think the bull in the energy will continue with vengence and that
<fibo> no it's not up on our news tonite.
<amos> the rotation will come in-- the crb is still bullish but the rotation is very slow to come--this is the awesomeness of strong trends!!!
<fran> thx
<Joe K> how long does it take for a rotation to come in ?
<amos> months, years?
<Joe K> a quarter
<Joe K> ?
<fran> don't the cms accumulate during a mark-down?
<amos> I dread to think what if the last month in the energy was re-accumulation--- do you realize
<amos> how high crude can go? heating oil to 90..... not nice!
<fibo> what if it isn't?
<Joe K> I think we are seeing a BC in energy's
<fran> gas in Chicago id 2.50
<fran> is
<amos> Joe K-= no need to THINK about BC-- you SEE it!
<gary fullett> we are catching up to isreal for the price of gas
<Joe K> just think the top is at hand
<amos> It is above $4.00 a gallon.
<Joe K> withen 2-3 dollars in crude
<gary fullett> no one is buying gas there are they amos
<gary fullett> gold started to move
<amos> JOe based on what? what do you mean "I think?"
<gary fullett> after a strong move last week
<fran> always wanted a Harley :-)
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> the market fell back the last few days on light volume
<Joe K> based on trading the market for 7 months
<amos> Think Vespa
<fran> k amos
<mrj>
<amos> Very good, here NIne months is a minimum requirement for driving licens
<Joe K> understood
<gary fullett> lol
<Joe K> Sir !
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> it has been a rough month
<amos> So what is the mood here?
<Joe K> hungry
<gary fullett> I think the markets are difficulyt here
<gary fullett> I am surprised by the strenghth on energies
<gary fullett> and the weakness in graisn
<amos> WHere are support and resistance rather than "difficult" evaluations?
<Joe K> in which one
<gary fullett> well july beans at 503 and 494
<amos> 503 and 494 are taken from what?
<gary fullett> the charts
<amos> weekly? trendline? creek? what?
<gary fullett> I menat 496 the prvious high
<amos> I can see a weekly uptrendline in SX around 492...
<gary fullett> 12/ 27
<amos> next low is 4.72.... dec lows.
<fran> bingo amos
<fran> 4.92
<gary fullett> 18 cents from those levels
<amos> so-we have to watch these numbers...that is all
<amos> BUt corn is very close to double bottom-- so that is interesting.
<gary fullett> we need some work before going higher though
<gary fullett> need some more accumaultion
<amos> We must watch the 516 in sept corn... I have not looked at others.
<fran> LOL
<gary fullett> 216
<amos> Oh, I mean 216...sorry
<gary fullett> 516 wiuld make me bullish
<fran> amos...have you had your orange juice?
<mrj> BO showing good support at 16.00 level on daily continuation chart and weekly and monthly Moved up well from today's low of 15.95
<fibo> the highest volume on beans & corn was at the BC.. now all the high vol. has been on the down moves with nothing on the rallies
<amos> I can tell you tho that the immediate financial report of a corporation has to be published every 90 days and not later than 3 days after the
<gary fullett> actaully bean oil closewd on its highs today
<amos> accountants signed it----- NOt 7 days as I wrote on the exam!!
<mrj> 16.30 close 16.32 high
<gary fullett> good for u amos
<fibo> hope it went well amos
<amos> will know in a month
<fibo> what was it?
<Joe K> so 216 in corn, and today it closed at 217.75
<amos> some kind of seris 7 in Israel
<amos> series
<fibo> oh i see
<gary fullett> what will that aloow u to do amos?
<fran> cta?
<amos> masturbate freely
<fran> whoa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<Joe K> yes, thought I was only one certified in that
User [fibo] left forum on Mon Jun 12 21:39:11 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> amos u need a licence for that?
<amos> it is really a joke--but they are trying to immitate the big sister U.S. of A
<gary fullett> to sell stocks?
<amos> to do anything in financial markets
<gary fullett> great !!!!!
<amos> You still cannot sell short in israel
<gary fullett> it will take a month tofind out?
<gary fullett> buy the way charts will be easy to dowmload now
<amos> Yes--it is done from right to left
<Joe K> ya know July corn exceeded its low
<amos> Very good Joe, so we may have a spring there----interesting!
<gary fullett> wwheat is holding up well here
<Joe K> Im trying to get a grip on this, sorry for changing subject back
<fran> wheat will lead us out of this mess
<amos> Look at the spring in April in wheat---we may be repeating this here in other grains---
<gary fullett> I mnetioned several weeks ago that wheat acted well
<amos> I am not trying to be bullish--but springs are powerful tools!
<gary fullett> yes I sent that chart
<gary fullett> amos
<gary fullett> about 56 weeks ago
<fran> the s and d was very positive for wheat
<gary fullett> 6 weeks
<Joe K> So Amos if CRB is bullish, and grains are a wash, and energies uncertain, how can we elvaluate what
<gary fullett> it isnt typical though for the grians to retrace like this ad still be bullish?
<amos> This decline in May June in the beans is rather odd--- the crops are not made yet-- but the market is
<amos> discounting perfect or near perfect conditions--- I wonder.
<fran> don't be fooled
<fran> they want the beans
<amos> In years that a high was made in June in the beans--it usually comes from a high level and the decline in the next
<amos> months is sever---are we going to see this year such a scenario? Somehow the CRB does not let
<amos> me believe so--but-- you need to see vigorous demand coming in before you can think bullishly here.
<amos> Right now you can only think of bying a double bottom, or a spring for a bounce!
<fran> AMOS...have you read a darn thing I've written?
<Joe K> lol
<amos> no
User [fran] left forum on Mon Jun 12 21:47:17 EDT 2000
<Joe K> touchy
<Joe K> lol
<amos> sorry fran--- I have been so out of it--most everything is kind of "new" to me..
<amos> I am frantically (!!) changing charts here.
<gary fullett> it has been a good time to be out
<gary fullett> and not look at markets
<gary fullett> since we have a small class and there will be lots of charts tomorrow
<gary fullett> lets call it an early evening so amos can get some rest
<gary fullett> and we can b sharp tomorrow
<gary fullett> that way amos can reviwe and I can send charts
<gary fullett> amos gold looks like it is going to move
<amos> will you please apologize to fran if I offended here for me?
<gary fullett> I will I know she left
<amos> yes, gold begins to establish a bottom.
<Joe K> Yes amos ! Gold thoughts
<gary fullett> she has been talking about demand from a fundamental aspect with basis
<gary fullett> so I will..
<gary fullett> I will send gold romorrow Joe
<amos> It can easily go to 310 (I think that was a target from the weekly, not sure)
<Joe K> any time frame in mind /
<amos> No, joe,
<Joe K> k
<amos> Gary, do you know of any disaster margin calls in grains?
<gary fullett> I havent
<gary fullett> there were no limit moves
<amos> would be interesting to poke around and ask
<gary fullett> so I think it was just liqdation
<gary fullett> I will ask around tomorrow
<amos> 70 cents in a month--that is serious
<Joe K> rare ?
<amos> medium
<gary fullett> well done
<amos> look at charts and see--yes it is rare
<Joe K> Well, its got me curious
<amos> just do not get yellow
<gary fullett> gold up 380 now
<Joe K> What ?
<Joe K> Aussies not selling
<amos> watch the bonds below 9630--daily thrust
<Joe K> quote garry ?
<amos> mrj, I did not have the chance to thank you for the bridge article. did you like it?
<gary fullett> 293 aug
<mrj> yes
<amos> then THank You.
<gary fullett> I read it as well
<mrj> you're welcome
<Joe K> Ok now whats this mean the next legg is underway ?
<gary fullett> It was interesting
<Joe K> looks like it
<gary fullett> well I will do some charts now and see u all tomorrow
<amos> 294.50 was previous high!
<gary fullett> yes it was
<amos> next leg is around 310
<gary fullett> good night
<amos> ok see you tmw
User [gary fullett] left forum on Mon Jun 12 21:57:52 EDT 2000