User [gary fullett /172.143.210.129] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 20:56:32 EDT 2000
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.165] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 20:57:36 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> hello
<gtb> hi
User [mrj /209.16.79.156] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 20:58:37 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> hi mrj
<mrj> hi gary, marsh, gtb
<gary fullett> I will be with you all in 1 minute or so good evening
<gtb> j
<lmarsh> another hard day for the grains
<gtb> tuff on me
User [stockgirl /216.244.31.250] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:00:40 EDT 2000
<mrj> hey stockgirl
<gary fullett> good evening
<lmarsh> hey
<gary fullett> sorry about the momentary delay
<stockgirl> hey mrj!
<gary fullett> yes very wells tock girl
<gary fullett> since you need to leave
<gary fullett> I will discuss what is on your mind first
<stockgirl> OJ
<stockgirl> and sugar
<gary fullett> good :)
<stockgirl> which one first?
<gary fullett> do u have a prefernce?
<stockgirl> OJ
<gary fullett> then I will entertain questions
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> we discuss this last night
<gary fullett> but before I talk about it
<gary fullett> do u have a specific questions?
<stockgirl> so today OJ met our target signal for a buy on the price side, but i didn't have a way to check volume
<gary fullett> well with the pennant
<gary fullett> that I pointed out last night
<gary fullett> the critical level was the 8310 area
<gary fullett> remember?
<stockgirl> yes
<gary fullett> idf you look at the market
<gary fullett> the market opened lower today at the low of 8195
<stockgirl> yes but that was still higher than the previous low of 8140?
<gary fullett> Markets generally will open on its high or the day or low of the day within a few hundred dollars
<gary fullett> I will get there
<gary fullett> so oj open above support at the 8140 area
<gary fullett> but 8140
<gary fullett> was near the end of support
<gary fullett> at the 8100 area
<stockgirl> meaning?
<gary fullett> the support line of this pennant
User [fran /209.100.190.174] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:06:42 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> meaning 8140
<gary fullett> was near support
<mrj> hi fran
<fran> hi all
<gary fullett> but to buy 8195 on the opwn it was in no mans land
<mrj> talking OJ fran
<gary fullett> it wasnt at support
<stockgirl> yes
<fran> k
<fran> thx
<gary fullett> but didnt break ressiatnce
<gary fullett> so it was above support
<gary fullett> and under resistance
<stockgirl> resistence being 8140?
<lmarsh> hi fran
<gary fullett> support being 8140
<fran> hi
<stockgirl> sorry, you mean resistence
<gary fullett> resistance being 8310
<stockgirl> not support, was reading too fast
<gary fullett> hi fran
<fran> hi gary
<gary fullett> so 8195 meant nothing
<stockgirl> so on the open did not immediately break resistence of 8310
<gary fullett> except it could have been the low becasue it was the opening
User [Joe K /172.140.107.62] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:08:44 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> no it didnt
<gary fullett> but it did within
<stockgirl> what would that signal have meant if it did break resistence straight away?
<mrj> hi joe
<gary fullett> the first hour
<Joe K> Hey Everybody !
<fran> hi joe
<mrj> talking OJ Joe
<stockgirl> so that's strong, in the first hour.
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> very bullish
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> but the previous highs
<gary fullett> was at the 8400
<stockgirl> yes
User [Guest /204.119.225.157] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:09:46 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> when a market is on a spring board
<gary fullett> it will generally
<gary fullett> jump over the creek
<gary fullett> meaning it generally will gap above resistance
<mrj> hi guest
<gary fullett> but it idnt today
<Guest> hi
<gary fullett> but it traded thru the 8310 area
<stockgirl> you mean gap at the open?
<gary fullett> geenrally when amrket is on the spring board
<gary fullett> it will jump over the creek
<stockgirl> at the open?
<gary fullett> in this case it traded thru resistance
<gary fullett> Yes
<gary fullett> on the opening
<gary fullett> in oother words
<gary fullett> ideallly
<gary fullett> the market should have gapped above 8310 and never looked back
User [eric /209.44.8.16] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:11:38 EDT 2000
User [Guest] left forum on Wed Jun 07 21:11:42 EDT 2000
<stockgirl> but trading through resistence is still very bullish
<fran> hi eric
<eric> good evening to all
User [Guest /204.119.225.157] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:12:01 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> treu very treu
<gary fullett> true
<gtb>
<gary fullett> but the market should have extended more than it did
<gary fullett> becasue people who are short
<gary fullett> should have short covered
<gary fullett> and they relly didnt
<gary fullett> the trading range is important as well
<stockgirl> but it traded steadily and pulled back but closed above resistence
<gary fullett> that is true
<gary fullett> but it should have preformed better
<gary fullett> I am bullish so I think it eventaully will go to 90 cents
<gary fullett> the market needs to get above 8400 with good volume
<gary fullett> and it may do this tomorrow
<gary fullett> so yes the market did close above some resisatnce
<gary fullett> but I would have liked to seen a better
<Joe K> Gary what has been average volume, noticed today it was arround 5,000
<gary fullett> close and better trading range
<gary fullett> it only had a 200 point range
<gary fullett> average volume is about 3500
<Joe K> ok
<stockgirl> gary, yesterday you said the first 200 points was a good time to think about getting in.
<stockgirl> so aren't we just beginning to test the waters now, if your assessement of 3:1 is correct?
<stockgirl> or are you saying that overall it should have performed better and is still weak?
User [erik /209.44.8.170] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:16:53 EDT 2000
<lmarsh>
<fran> hello eric
<gary fullett> yes stock girl
<gary fullett> I buy support and sell ressiatnce
<mrj> 5-24 high was 84 today 83.10 seems like the 85.30 high of 4-18 is critical
<erik> hi fran
<gary fullett> so I think you can be long from here and risk iunder 8050
<gary fullett> very correct mr j
<gary fullett> the volume AND price action need to be present
<stockgirl> what does that mean, risk under 8050
<gary fullett> stop loss
<mrj> soory today's high 83.90
<gary fullett> I bought options today for 210 dollars in oj
<gary fullett> the sept 90 calls
<stockgirl> why would i place my stop loss at 8050 when the market has already moved three points?
<Joe K> For me ! lol
<gary fullett> because support is 8100
<gary fullett> shhhh
<gary fullett> joe
<Joe K> yes
<gary fullett> if u are not in that would be the stategy if bullish
<stockgirl> yes, thank you gary
<gary fullett> ideally buying at the 81000 is iideal
<Joe K> Hey Im in ! I like it ! low risk small trade
<stockgirl> gary, in this kind of scenario, where you are still unsure of the strength, would you just go long
<gary fullett> but the market isnt there
<stockgirl> or do a spread.
<gary fullett> I would buy a call
<gary fullett> I dont rec options
<gary fullett> but because volitity
<stockgirl> amos told me that the strong traders never position themselves just with one side
<gary fullett> is low I would
<gary fullett> huh?
<gary fullett> what do u mean stock girl
<stockgirl> i mean to protect downside a bull spread in this case
<stockgirl> rather than just straight calls
<gary fullett> if u think it is accumaltion then u need to be long
<stockgirl> straight long?
<gary fullett> that si not what he means
<gary fullett> do u think the CM hedges hiis positions
<stockgirl> all right
<gary fullett> if u think the market is bullish
<gary fullett> and is undergoing accumaltion
<gary fullett> u must buy with a stop
<gary fullett> what he means
<gary fullett> is that if u are long
<gary fullett> and u are wrng
<gary fullett> wrong
<gary fullett> u should reverse
<gary fullett> that is what a good trader does
<lmarsh>
<stockgirl> thank you.
<gary fullett> he is flexible
<gary fullett> so if u think u identify
<gary fullett> accumaltion
<gary fullett> and you are long
<gary fullett> and u are wrong and it is distributuion
<gary fullett> then U must be able to sell short and reverse
<gary fullett> that is what amos means
<Guest>
<gary fullett> undersatnd?
<stockgirl> all right, thank you.
<stockgirl> yes
<erik>
<gary fullett> questions on oj
<gary fullett> good I just wanted to make sure ukew this
<Joe K> Another possible consideration. In case of OJ like today, a small option is cheap
<Joe K> so why worry about covering
<gary fullett> yes Joek
<gary fullett> agree
<Joe K> when looking at target range
<gary fullett> like coffee yesterday
<gary fullett> if long a call and u hedge
<gary fullett> the market reversed today
<gary fullett> if u put on a position
<gary fullett> and it doesnt act the way u feel it should
<gary fullett> GET OUT
<gary fullett> you can alwasy get back in
<gary fullett> questions on OJ
<gary fullett> I want to talk about sugar
<gary fullett> that was the other question
<fran>
<stockgirl> yes, it opened up again but then retraced but is still on an upward trend by the look of things.
<gary fullett> ah today was very interesting
<gary fullett> I mentioned to u last night
<gary fullett> that it had a good close on tuesday
<gary fullett> remeber
<stockgirl> yes
<gary fullett> and that it wasnt a sign of weakness
<gary fullett> because the market
<stockgirl> closed near its high
<gary fullett> didnt break from the 815 area
<stockgirl> of the day
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> so what did it do today
<gary fullett> it opened higher as expected
<stockgirl> it closed near its low
<gary fullett> and the volume was quite heavy
<gary fullett> and the close was weak
<gary fullett> what does that say to you?
<stockgirl> buying is fading
User [Joe K] left forum on Wed Jun 07 21:30:02 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> it says to me that 815 was previous resistance
<gary fullett> and that idt gapped above that took out buy stops and finished unchanged
<gary fullett> to me this is the beginning of short term weakness
<fran>
<stockgirl> what does that mean took out buy stops
User [Joe K /172.140.107.62] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:30:58 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> since 815 was resistance
<gary fullett> and stops are placed above resistance ( buy stops)
<Guest>
<gary fullett> so they we hit or executed today
<gary fullett> so shorts got stppped out
User [wes /172.135.200.56] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:32:02 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and new longs enetered above 815\
<fran> hi wes
<wes> hi fran
<Guest> hi wes
<gary fullett> I said that I felt that sugar could be close to a buying climax
<lmarsh> hello wes
<wes> hi guest
<wes> hi lmarsh
<Guest> hi wes
<gary fullett> yes stock girl
<erik>
<gary fullett> a stop becomes a market order
<gary fullett> when executed
<gary fullett> so a buy stop is above the market
<gary fullett> and when the market gets to the buy stop price
<gary fullett> it becomes a market order
<gary fullett> so if sugar is at 810
<gary fullett> and u have a buy stop in at 816
<gary fullett> when the market trades at 816 it becomes a market order
<stockgirl> it's entered as a buy stop specifically to prevent it from being a mo until the right time?
<gary fullett> it is to limit risk on a short
<gary fullett> and for new longs to buy a breakout
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> till the price it hit
<stockgirl> that's great!
<Joe K> Some also enter " Market if touched "
<mrj> Gary: do you think there is significance to the price action and volume of 5-25? PSY?
<stockgirl> oh, yes, i understand that term
<gary fullett> buy stop is Not the same as market if touched
<Joe K> correct
<gary fullett> market if touch becomes a market order but it is placed differnetly than a buy stop
<gary fullett> a buy stop above the order
<gary fullett> market not order
<gary fullett> in sugar mr j?
<mrj> y
<gary fullett> yes I am waiting for a bc
<gary fullett> and some distribution now in sugar
<stockgirl> gary, i didn't understand why you asked in relation to volume on 5-25
<gary fullett> understand the action in sugar
<stockgirl> if we are in PSY now?
User [wes2 /172.143.149.128] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:38:40 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> could be
<gary fullett> have to see wide price action
<gary fullett> and volume to see if it is and then becomes a BC
<fran>
<erik>
<lmarsh>
<mrj> volume was 59,201 for 5-25
<stockgirl> and today?
<mrj> don't know until tomorrow
<mrj> volumes a day late
<stockgirl> mrj not like stocks then
<gary fullett> I have estimated volume
<mrj> correct
<stockgirl> where can i find vol. information?
<gary fullett> it was about 62k
<gary fullett> u can only get estimated volume
<gary fullett> not real volume after the close
<stockgirl> from where please gary?
<gary fullett> the exchange is the best way to get it
User [Guest] left forum on Wed Jun 07 21:42:34 EDT 2000
<stockgirl> but you said est. volume was 62K and volume on 2-25 was 59+K
<gary fullett> right
<stockgirl> you asked if there was a relationship to price action today and volume of 5-25
<gary fullett> I call the exchange
<stockgirl> so can we speculate that some PSY occurred today with the weak close?
<Joe K> Today Sugar volume was estimated at 37,717
User [gtb /216.228.38.84] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:43:52 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> all contracts Joe
<stockgirl> that's half the figure gary is estimating
<gary fullett> or just the lead month
<Joe K> ok
<Joe K> Not sure AOL didnt specify
<gary fullett> I called the exchanged and they said it was higher
<Joe K> you would know
<gary fullett> but we shall see for sure tomorrow
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> lets say that Joe is correct
<gary fullett> what does that mean that a market
<gary fullett> makes news highs on light volume?
<fran> not good
<gary fullett> it menas that Demand
<gary fullett> is NOT coming in
User [wyatt /166.93.111.147] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:45:53 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> but it also means that SUPPLY
<fran> hi wyatt
<gary fullett> is not coming
<gary fullett> in
User [wes3 /172.160.49.164] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:46:13 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> but the CM sees this weak demand and he will sell
<gary fullett> because demand is waning
<gary fullett> lets say the volume was 62k
<wyatt> sorry i'm late..hell everyone
<fran> wes is cloning
<gary fullett> what does that mean
<gary fullett> hey stranger wyatt
<gary fullett> :)
<wes3> lol@fran
<gary fullett> if the volume was high and the close was at the low
<gary fullett> that means SUPPLY came in today
<gary fullett> so either way it appears that sugar will be going lower
<gary fullett> short term
<gary fullett> remeber last night someome mentioned
<gary fullett> COT
<gary fullett> and I said that cms are special group
<gary fullett> and that the cot doesnt accuratly represent
<gary fullett> the CM
<Joe K> yes
<lmarsh>
<erik>
<fran>
<gary fullett> well what do u think the commercial are in sugar/>
<Joe K> short now ?
User [fibo /204.119.225.85] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 21:51:20 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi fibo
<fran> hi fibo
<lmarsh> hi fibo
<wyatt> hi fibo
<Joe K> hey fibo
<fibo> hi everyone
<gary fullett> ask whatever your heart desires
<wes3> hi fibo
<stockgirl> 'nite all, sorry i have to leave early.
<erik> hi fibo
<mrj> nite stk girl
<fran> nite sg
<gary fullett> good stock girl I hope it helps
<fibo> nite stockgirl
<lmarsh> nite stockgirl
<wes3> nite stockgirl
User [stockgirl] left forum on Wed Jun 07 21:52:16 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> hi fibo
<Joe K> Gold Please
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> any other questions I want to talk grains
<fibo> i baled out of long corn on the open gary did you?
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> sold some last night
<gary fullett> and the rest near the open
<gary fullett> gold first then
<gary fullett> I want to mention coffee
<fibo> just a blip up
<wes3> because gap lower gary and fibo?
<gary fullett> I am bullish coffee and I feel that they had a spring today
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> so what coffee here
<gary fullett> gold
<fibo> yes wes
<Joe K> Good Coffee Drewling
<gary fullett> remeber I mentioned that we had smaller ranges
<gary fullett> in gold
<gary fullett> this was creeping down
<gary fullett> supplly wasnt coming
<gary fullett> at the lows in gold either
<gary fullett> was demand
<gary fullett> till the other day
<gary fullett> gold showed demand and took out resisatnce
<gary fullett> and now should pullback few more day before going higher
<fran>
<gary fullett> the key to me is silver can get above 523 in july
<gary fullett> longer term friendly gold cofee
<gary fullett> okay JoeK
<Joe K> How does Gold relate to Silver
<Joe K> fuzzy here
<gary fullett> generally silver will lead a gold move higher
<gary fullett> like meal to oil
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> dont be fuzzy that is the way my grass looks
<Joe K> k
<gary fullett> silver is called a cheap mans metal
<gary fullett> grains
<gary fullett> though this is very painful for me to talk about
<gary fullett> ruin my day today
<Joe K> handing you hankerchief
<gary fullett> thanx
<gary fullett> I was very surprised by the action today
<gary fullett> not because the market went lower
<gary fullett> but because the extent of the break
<gary fullett> after holing suport for several days it went through like butter
<gary fullett> I want to talk about something that is very important
<gary fullett> by the way amos will be back next week
<lmarsh>
<fibo> prelim. volume was also large on todays.
<gary fullett> when the grains were going up
<gary fullett> yes it was fibo all sells tops
<fibo> so high volume is still on downs and less vol on the ups.
<gary fullett> and new supply
<gary fullett> bearish
<fran>
<gary fullett> when the market was rallying it was holding support
<gary fullett> but when the market finaaly broke support
<gary fullett> it was on heavy volume meaning supply
<gary fullett> then the market did technical
<gary fullett> damage
<gary fullett> when a market has tech damage
<gary fullett> it just cant turn around with any prep
<gary fullett> so that weakness we had over the past several weeks
<gary fullett> makes rallies difficult
<gary fullett> understand
<Joe K> yes
<fibo> demand has to prove itself
<gary fullett> it takes time to repair tech damage
<lmarsh> y
<gary fullett> yes it does agian fibo
<gary fullett> grains have upset me recently
<fibo> why?
<gary fullett> I thought that we would testsundays nighs highs today
<gary fullett> and then form a range
<gary fullett> but when they gapped today
<gary fullett> after being higher last night to me that was unuasal
<fibo> yes
<gary fullett> it just shows that supply is coming in
<fran> gary...in the last 2 weeks...basis in beans has improved 10 1/2 cents.....I think they are accumulating
<gary fullett> very unuasal
<mrj>
<fibo> i hope you are right fran
<gary fullett> and what was more unuasual
<gary fullett> when the market did gap lower than expected
<gary fullett> the market didnt just flush out today
<gary fullett> why didnt the market flush to 510 in beans today?
<gary fullett> it should have been a big down today AFTER the weak opening
<gary fullett> do u see what I mean?
<gary fullett> it was unusual
<gary fullett> that
<gary fullett> they gapped so low
<gary fullett> but unusual that they didnt fall apat
<gary fullett> actualy wheat closed near its highs of the days range
<Joe K> so how do we take this, supply is coming in, but demand is holding up ?
<fran> if they didn't want and need the product, would basis improve?
<Joe K> or what
<gary fullett> FIGHT here joe
<gary fullett> we are where we were when the rally began
<gary fullett> retraced the whole move
<Joe K> battling for ground
<gary fullett> No weather premium
<fran> and July is coming
<Joe K> Well so how can demmand overcome this ?
<erik>
<gary fullett> only 2 ways
<gary fullett> volume and price
<fibo> it is hard to leave "bias" at the door when you come in to trade.. and just read the chart
<gary fullett> fibo what is our opinion on the grains
<gary fullett> corn did go to your target of 220
<gary fullett> basis july
<fran> well for sure the market is going down now
<gary fullett> fran u said that they are accumalting becuase og basis
<fibo> what i see is all the large volume on the down since the highs..and less volume on the corrective up moves
<fibo> i also see that they are still under the downtrend lines..
<fibo> also making lower lows and lower highs
<gary fullett> right
<fibo> it will react at the numbers..but as with the spring yesterday when it didn't follow through
<fibo> it told me it was a failed spring in a bear mkt.
<fibo> when it does turn it will be at a price target..with volume confirm..
<gary fullett> but 1 month ago we were opposite so maybe just in a wide trading range
<Joe K> Heres my question Last week we broke KEY resistence since demand is now trying to hold ground, doesnt it make this an obvious short /
<fibo> across trend lines,, and good price ranges..
<gary fullett> maybe 510 in july bean to 580 in july
<gary fullett> sounds very logical joe
User [Frank /63.160.52.239] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 22:12:08 EDT 2000
<fran> hi frank
<gary fullett> fibo and fran
<mrj> hi frank
<gary fullett> I have a question
<gary fullett> if u 2 dont mind
<Frank> Hello all
<gary fullett> hi frank
<fran> shoot
User [wyatt /166.93.111.147] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 22:13:08 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> maybe grains NEVER go into a bull market
<gary fullett> because we hardly ever get drouhgt
<fibo> yes but you can make money being short or long in a huge range.. beans have dropped 70cents and corn approx. 40cents.
User [eric /209.44.8.16] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 22:13:32 EDT 2000
<fibo> hello wyatt, Frank & eric
<gary fullett> and becaiuse we make progress with gentically treated grains to make growing asier
<eric> bumped again
<gary fullett> so we always have too muh supply
<gary fullett> so all rallies should be sold
<fibo> 96 was a bull market
<fran> wasn't a drought when coen went over 5.00 gary
<fran> corn
<wyatt> didn't wyckoff say to play both sides?
<fran> wheat went to 7.00
<gary fullett> sell resistance buy support wyatt
<gary fullett> why did it do that fran
<gary fullett> why?
<gary fullett> we always have sufficeint grain
<fibo> on the weekly charts the corn and beans now just look like 3 wave corrections up.
<fran> DEMAND Gary
<gary fullett> do we ever have a grain shortage?
<Joe K> lol
<fibo> yes demand
<gary fullett> people dont eat more grain
<wyatt> if yes I agree, but when a b c happens it's bullish
<gary fullett> demand by who?
<fran> cows and hogs do
<fibo> yes gary there is a grass seed shortage because you keep planting it ;o)
<gary fullett> 8 bags to date
<lmarsh> lol
<fran> good one fibo
<Joe K> Grain reserves are suposedly at historic lows, like 6th lowest in history or close by there
<fibo> in 96 it was the foreign countries demand
<gary fullett> we dont have alot of hogs look at their price
<Frank>
<fran> you are a Wyckoff student, and you look at all three time frames, and you tell me that grains won't ever rally?
<fibo> we help other countried develop their agriculture..so they grow their own..and don't buy from us..
<wyatt> when d doesn't happen you look for e for somethingthat says the trend has changed
<fibo> so ours goes down .
<gary fullett> why dont they always demand grain
<gary fullett> okay
<fibo> money
<eric> have to go, good night to all
<gary fullett> so if they develop thier own grains demand from us wont be there
<fibo> nite eric
User [eric] left forum on Wed Jun 07 22:17:50 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> night eric thank u
<lmarsh> nite eric
<fran> gary,,,they break up Microsoft, they won't touch ADM or Cargil
<gary fullett> :)
<mrj> do any of you see support at 219 in corn?
<Joe K> Cargil gave up coffee Im mad at em !
<fran> you know what our cash price is?
<fibo> yes mrj and also 217.25 on the jul corn
<gary fullett> yes mr j
<gary fullett> at the 218 1/2 area
<mrj> the low of 7-12-99 was 219
<fran> 1.95
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> 195 now?
<fran> bingo gary
<fibo> fran what was it last year about this time?
<Joe K> ouch !
<gary fullett> wow u mean gas is more than cash corn :)
<fran> let me look fibo
<gary fullett> gas here is over 2 bucks
<gary fullett> corn is 195
<fibo> fran i mean just what did you get for it at harvest
<gary fullett> the world is wrong
<Joe K> coffee was at 89 a day ago
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> soymealstill looks very bullish to me
<gary fullett> the trend is still up
<gary fullett> and the meal oil spread looks great
<gary fullett> it just confuses me
<fran> 1.98 fibo
<fibo> in bear move sell rallies.. in bull move buy dips.. sounds simple doesn't it ? ;o)
<Joe K> confuses alot right arround now
<fibo> not too good fran..
<fran> nope
<Joe K> I think the grains are doomed
<gary fullett> yes fibo :)
<fibo> gary hubby says trade each individual chart for what it is..and don't put any other chart with it.
<gary fullett> we were all so bullish a month ago now bearish such is life as a trader :)
<wyatt> agree fibo
<gary fullett> he is right
<gary fullett> very right
<Joe K> No rain no pain
<gary fullett> but also remeber wyckoff looked at like stocks within a group
<fibo> i think we were so bullish and bias to the long side..
<gary fullett> so u must watch all commodities within a group
<gary fullett> but yes trade eash one induvudually
<fibo> that we tended to ignore the charts for what it was telling us
<gary fullett> well the weekly daily confirmed for aw hile
<fran> This is good, I said before, you don't have a rally when everyone is expecting it
<Joe K> Well which has more weight you guys
<gary fullett> that is always true fibo
<gary fullett> but when the market went above daily and weekly resistance
<Joe K> Meal carrying the group, or trading each as its own
<gary fullett> we should have bought breaks
<gary fullett> trade each as its own
<Joe K> thanks
<fibo> phone
<gary fullett> so buying breaks was right until about 3 weeks ago
<fran> Gary...I know you don't like open interest, but it was almost as high as in 1996 when the market was at 8.00
<Joe K> thats weird
<gary fullett> it is not that I dont like it I just dont trade off of it
<gary fullett> so that meant too many longs
<gary fullett> or buy the way
<gary fullett> when I mnetioned sugar cot
<gary fullett> the commercails are very short
<gary fullett> large spec and small specs long and the market rallies
<gary fullett> so why be long then if u follow that?
<lmarsh> noticed that
<gary fullett> that is why cot is hard to trade
<Joe K> thought the com were the strength
<Joe K> ok
<gary fullett> been like that for a long time
<gary fullett> it was until a month ago
<Joe K> Coffee ?
<fibo> back
<gary fullett> k i missed ya
<fibo> with sugar and creme thank you
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> was it the grain man asking for grain demand :)
<fibo> what?
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<fibo> welcome guest
<Guest> hi
<Joe K> hey guest
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<gary fullett> I thought u were taking a grain order from the phone call stimulating demand fibo
<Joe K> I have such a way with words
<gary fullett> so we need to see the grains
<gary fullett> find support
<gary fullett> and it must show demand before heading up
<gary fullett> until then selling rallies is probabaly right.
<gary fullett> the chart will tell u
<gary fullett> wtach the price action and volume
<Frank>
<Joe K> Cant see that much demand eying a surplus
<mrj> Gary is it time to be contrarian?
<gary fullett> this will tell u the next move
<gary fullett> well at the highs they looked great
<gary fullett> at te lows they look bad
<gary fullett> but it may be premature at this level
<gary fullett> to risk a long................
<Joe K> agreed
<fran> Joe...the corn is a foot tall, the beans are about 4 inches tall.....it ain't in the bin yet
<Joe K> yes
<Joe K> but if normal things prevail, like rain, look for Southern comfort
<Joe K> just my take
<gary fullett> so the crop looks good huh?
<fran> agree
User [lavona /207.50.1.134] joined forum on Wed Jun 07 22:32:32 EDT 2000
<Joe K> looks normal tome
<fran> hi Lavona
<fibo> hi lavona
<lavona> <Enter TexHello everyone
<gary fullett> hi lavona
<wyatt> hi
<Joe K> Hi lava
<lavona> what is the subj
<gary fullett> grains
<Joe K> Coffee
<fran> grains
<lavona> k
<gary fullett> just small talk now
<gary fullett> I will go over the other charts tomorrow that I sent yesterday
<lavona> k
<gary fullett> it was a long day today
<fran> price is reality
<gary fullett> so I am a bit pooped now
<Joe K> agreed fran
<gary fullett> to go over other charts with a clear head
<gary fullett> if u dont mind
<Joe K> I mind
<fibo> nite gary
<gary fullett> u have no mind joe
<Joe K> just kidding
<fran> nite gary thx
<gary fullett> night fibo
<mrj> nite gary
<gary fullett> fran so the grains look good to u growth wise?
<fran> yes
<Joe K> night Gary cheer up, you get to see me in the mourning
<Joe K> lol
<fran> here they do
<gary fullett> :)
<fibo> they do here
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<gary fullett> wisj=h i knew that a month ago :)
<Joe K> Fibo a question
<fibo> k
<Joe K> Are fibbs used more for projected price targets or more for retracements
<fibo> both
<Joe K> They mess me up
<fibo> depends on who uses them Joe ;O0
<lavona> how
<Joe K> can you go over a senario
<fibo> ;O)
<Joe K> where and how you use them
<fibo> sorry i messed the happy face up
<Joe K> or is it late
<fibo> Joe do you have the weekly corn from the 1987 low?
<fran> nite folks see ya
<fibo> nite fran
<mrj> nite fran
<wyatt> nite fran
<Joe K> looking
<lavona> nite
<fibo> and a calculator
<lavona> fran
<Joe K> just a sec please
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<fibo> this is as neat an example of fib price targets as they come
<Joe K> only have monthlys that far back
<fibo> everyone have their calculators?
<Frank> y
<gary fullett> yep
<Joe K> yes
<fibo> can use a monthly also Joe
<Joe K> ok
<fibo> o.k. the 1988 high was 359
<fibo> the 1987 low was 142
<fibo> how many points is that?
<gary fullett> 107
<gary fullett> 207 sorry
<gary fullett> 217 sorry
<Joe K> 217
<gary fullett> yikes
<fibo> yes 217
<fibo> o.k. now multiply the 217 by 1.618
<Joe K> 351.106
<fibo> right
<mrj>
<fibo> now add that to the 1992 low of 204.50
<Joe K> 555.606
<fibo> what was the price of the 1996 high ?
<Joe K> 555 something
<Joe K> wow
<fibo> 554.50
<mrj> 554 1/2
<Joe K> Your dangerous
<Joe K> lol
<fibo> see you could project that price area after you got the first leg up
<Joe K> what significance do the years have
<fibo> and added to whenever the second leg ended.
<fibo> nothing Joe
<Joe K> ok
<fibo> at the time the price target sounded rediculus.. but that' where it went!
<Joe K> ok
<fibo> can find the 750 high on wheat by using fib ratios also
<Joe K> what about like right now
<fibo> also the 177 low on the corn.
<Joe K> how did you calculate low earlier for corn
<fibo> o.k.
<Joe K> 195 i belive
<fibo> for now take the first leg from the 177 low to the 233.25
<fibo> multiply that product x 1.236 and add back to 180
<Joe K> 177 low threw me off
<fibo> that is the low on the monthly
<fibo> 177
<Joe K> now do what with it
<fibo> add the product to the 1.80 low
<fibo> what did you get?
<fibo> ?
<Joe K> 58.05
<Frank> 249.5
<fibo> right Frank
<fibo> what was the high in May?
<mrj> 249 1/2
<Joe K> i got lost on the 177 and taking the product part
<fibo> Joe the first leg was 56.25.. x 1.236
<Joe K> ok
<fibo> = 69.50
<fibo> plus 1.80=249.50
<mrj> 233.25 minus 177 times 1.236 plus 180
<fibo> doesn't get any better than that ;o)
<Joe K> Its a little tricky I need practice
<fibo> and now....put Wyckoff with the ratios
<Joe K> lol
<fibo> i like a cluster of signals in the same area..
<Joe K> Thankyou Fibo Can I bug you from time to time ?
<fibo> but.. see what happens if i am bias to one side or another..
<lavona> Good Night Fibo check Icq
User [lavona] left forum on Wed Jun 07 22:54:44 EDT 2000
<fibo> i don't react at my clusters..
<Joe K> Can you project some coffee numbers ?
<Joe K> ;)
<fibo> the hardest part is believing what you see.
<gary fullett> thank u fibo for that explanation
<fibo> i don't even have a coffee chart Joe
<gary fullett> that is very true fibo
<Joe K> ok
<fibo> gary you are welcome
<Joe K> thats wild though
<gary fullett> i learned too
<gary fullett> well I will leave it at that for toinight
<Joe K> You scared me
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> any other questions before I call it a night?
<fibo> o.k. nite gary
<fibo> sorry Joe didn't mean to scare you
<fibo> lol
<Joe K> lol
<gary fullett> thank u again fibo
<gary fullett> good night good folks
<Joe K> Yes thankyou
<gary fullett> see u tomorrow
<fibo> your welcome gary..take car of the grass
<mrj> good night all
<gary fullett> it is looking bettre
<fibo> nite all
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<Joe K> Nite all
<gary fullett> it will die with temps in the 90.s
<Joe K> Night Gary
<fibo> just keep it moist
<wyatt> nite everyone
<fibo> nite all
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<Joe K> night Fibo
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User [gary fullett] left forum on Wed Jun 07 22:57:52 EDT 2000