User [gary fullett /172.145.160.192] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:01:23 EDT 2000 hi gary hi gary mrj good evening everyone ( Eating ) and listening u r always eating Makes for better trading thats good yes anyway how was the weekend? good Who's ? great are there any questions Yes great go on? quesiton Joe ? What makes you like Beans tomorrow LONG ? the fact that I bought them today :) well that is a great question... Was good answer I think the beans are near an area of support lol User [mrj] left forum on Mon Jun 05 21:05:17 EDT 2000 the market did some techinical damage to the market over the past several weeks User [mrj /206.251.171.14] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:05:40 EDT 2000 and it has retraced the whole move to where the bullishness started moving up ok, makes sense was wondering if you had weather considerations in there so even though I htink the market will peobably stay in this area for this week I feel that it will accumalte at these levels ok I dont factored weather it can dip further and take on the weak longs but I precieve this as a buying area rayjer than another leg down ok rather so i think it is corret to buy support and since the market did some tech damage sell resistance but over all keep Someone else want the floor ? Still eating, was curious though Gary a long position if you account can afford it I think that corn and whet will have a decent rally tomorrow though beans may lag tomorrow there is is something else why I bought them the spread between meal and oil was Bullish today meal closed higher with the rest of the grains lower this is bll spreading agiant the oil bullish the market has seen this in over 2 weeks since the break spreads will generally turn a day before the market does so since the spreads were positive today I look for a rallty tomorrow why do spreads tell u the upcoming action? it is becausue spreader can put on a alrger postion with less margin in the rection that they wish to be. do u understand that? yes Does the recent gold move in suspect due to low volume upmove? So your saying Beans Meal both long Oil short? yes Jok yes very good eric I think gold is longer term bullish they broke above the 284 area in June so I htink that is bullsih Short term pullback coming in Gold ? though I htink gold will puullback from these levels yes I think gold needs to come back a frew bucks before going higher User [mrj /206.251.171.14] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:16:20 EDT 2000 I think silver nends to get above 523 in july understand that User [erik /209.44.8.16] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:16:30 EDT 2000 that will generally lead the metsals silver that is so we need more volume Demand to have the metals really bottom good observation eric thanks gary Demand makes em bottom ? I htink coffee is back at weekly support and should be bought amy other questoions? yes Joe confused on that thought demmand increases buying supply or selling makes a market go down so demand makes it go up agreed thats right Joe.. I must have read ya wrong we are clear here u said"demand makes em bottom" and I agreed yes that line okay any other questions? DGary User [fibo /204.119.225.114] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:19:56 EDT 2000 hi fibo Demmand brings buying which makes em bottom ? hello everyone.sorry i'm late. isp problems hey fibo You said bean is bullish due to meal-oil spread but you also said bean will lag tomorrow, which is correct? hi fibo yes I think so that doesnt mean that beans wont be higher it just menas that I feel that beans will lag the other grains today ok as I felt that the wheat and corn were sold off a tad too much and that the beans acted right so I htink wheat and corn will do well tomorrow hey fibo welcome still hot there? yes still no rain wheat harvest around here will be in 2 weeks interesting cotton keeps going lower how does the wheat look? there is no dry land wheat..the irrigated doesn't look that good because of all the hot weather no cotton is grown where i live.. okay on south around Lubbock they have finally had good rain I wonder if that will be bullish wheat longer term User [fran /209.100.189.169] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:25:17 EDT 2000 depends on the Kansas wheat crop illinios is still in a drought central illinios that is though parts got some good raiin hi fran it helped my grass hi all alot the last week :) hi Fran hello fran good gary hi fran fran has had lots of rain hi fran Gary trading any Natural gas ? right fibo yeah but it will be hot here by the end of the week I did the other day but not today joe wasnt today a big run it rained here last night for about 1 1/2 hours how about by u fran? drizzled all day yesterday off and on Fran what state ? cold Illinois k i imagine you are ready for some sun aren't you fran? crop needs sun and heat Fibo your in Texas ? correct ? hey I got a tan working in the yard this wekeend yes Joe up in the top of the Texas panhandle yes it was very cold Got a tan in coffee market today ! tanned your hide lol ok Fibo where are you Joe? And your not arround the Cotton areas ? Im in NC fibo..tonite they talked about the floods in Texas on the news yes that was down arount Ft. Worth..really bad I am wondering whats up with cotton ? too much...too little no Joe cotton is grown further south yes fran `ok still raining in fort worth? don't know..we are about 500 miles from Ft. Worth Its raining here in NC fibo what is your take on the grains? hubby said for the time being the tops are in on corn and beans and hubby knows no sign of demand coming in these markets in his opinion I tend to agree with you about a top being in I was mentioning before u came Glad Im scared of Beans that I felt that the market wuld back and fill abit in these levels maybe go soemwhat lower all the volume from the high has been on the down moves and the corrective up moves on less vol. but tomorrow I think we will behigher that is true fibo I noticed that supply is overcoming demand possibly gary ..but the main trend is down i think for now Do you think next retrace South, might brake 50% level / if the market fails the rally we had just could have been a rally in a longer term bear market right fibo when the corn made it's high that was a classic buying climax..right up to a creek line and right up to fib. targets yes it could well grains werent rwally in a bullmarket they were on the daily and possibly the weekly User [lmarsh /12.14.197.208] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:38:40 EDT 2000 but the monthly was suspect. hi lmarsh hi marsh hi imarsh Hello everone though the low in julty beans hi marsh last week is a criical lvel hi lmarsh the basis is strengthening...so it looks like some accumulation ...right gary talking of beans?? yes marsh yes thanks! yes lamrsh last weeks lows to me is critical User [wyatt /166.93.111.133] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:41:07 EDT 2000 well the july -nov spread lost a penny today hi wyatt hi wyatt so they may be buying nov beans hi wyatt stanger hello everyone hi wyatt turn around tuesday in the grains sorry I late basis has improved 7 cents so the basis stregthing could be positive short term it has? how about corn Fran? brb...check glad the basis is better fran User [wes /152.175.184.167] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:42:30 EDT 2000 hi wes hi fibo hello wes have u noticed that fibo about the basis? hi lmarsh hi wes..... hi gary and everyone corn retest today? I think so wes what about the basis? though corn dosnt act great to me benas act the best i don't really know how to read that basis info gary basis on corn is wider 2 ceants gary though I did nibble on wheat today as I htought it went to support cents me either fibo I thought u may have had some insight based oon the cash so is that bullish corn? does that mean corn has become the weak sister? if they are willing to improve basis, I would think they want the commodity i agree fran. i agree as well well wes seems demand was good when basis here was close to even it isnt the weak sister but isnt acted great wheat s still the weak sister yes fibo ok fran has your basis there ever been even? what is it now? like corn here is -10 to -12 in a good year ....right now we should be option basis or even better in beans...but we are 24 under July when there is demand it has been +10 or so I have seen basis this time of year 5-7 over o.k. thanks fran corn is 24 under here right now wow quite a difference not good do you ever do basis contracts? but if they strengthened the basis, I still think they might be accumulating so this is over all bearish right fran? yes fibo....but not good to do last few years no not at all but they will keep accumulating as the market goes on down really don't know gary right fibo thats true they tookout all the weather premium didnt they? they get more and more at cheaper pricers yes fibo they dont seem to be a drought now!!! I heard very hot in the plains this week sometimes class it is nce to know about these things as overall knowledge it looks like the crops ar off to a great start can not hurt gary...did you know that if the crop is threatened, they will go to the old crop first? u mea they will buy July? yes....it is here nov isn't yet...right? nov is new crop, ..i think yes that is true lmarsh though nove held up by a penny relative to july today so they will go for the tangible User [Guest /172.166.18.115] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 21:56:13 EDT 2000 true. hi guest usually no limits on it too fran did u get too mush rain or isnt there no such thing? welcome guest much hi Sir Gary ;-) : ) we're ok...got to spot some beans...you know about that Gary hey I m worried about grass and u r planting beans hi guest I think the beans will get a push up tomorrow though tomorrow I will send the charts for the grains amos couldnt make it tonight isp problems for him any other questions? I want to talk alittle about spread trading if u al, dont mind k k k do u all know what a spread is? y y parkay u can spread the same commodity lol : ^) lol:) differnet months or smilar commodties like beans meal oil why are spreads important it is becuase they tend to show direction because the amrgin is less margin and that large trades can disquise their moves User [eric /209.44.8.170] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 22:02:00 EDT 2000 wb eric wb eric so watching this can tip u off hi lets take a commodity that u can spread like beans july is the lead month or front month do u know what I mean with that? most active? oi User [wes /172.153.130.213] joined forum on Mon Jun 05 22:03:08 EDT 2000 it generally is the most active and open interest but when u get to the thrird week in June aug will be the lead month in beans okay k Is there a difference between spot month and front month? so if I wanted to bull spread a market of the dame commodity how shall I do this? wb wes since the fron tmonth has the most volume thanks most epople will buy the front month because if there is a bulllsh ess the lead month will gnerally lead. it is the same eric thanks fibo no eric the same thanx fibo didnt see the question your welcome so trader shave a tendency to buy the front month lead mont got to go good night erveryone and sell the back month or a month after the lead month nite mrj as a spread User [mrj] left forum on Mon Jun 05 22:07:10 EDT 2000 nite mrj the margin is nominal nite mrj night mr j understand? y y y questions? okay now we have spreads in commodities that are differnt like soymeal and bean oil when , is it normal to do spreads? Just watch how different months perform? does anyone know what soymeal is? and what soy oil is? spreads chart the same way individaul commoditie do u should chart teh spread like u would any other commodity they have support and resisatnce as well soyoil is for salad dressing meal is the protien for feed so if one is bullish the beans procducts one gnerally should buy meal and sell oil as a spread beans have 2 by products they are soymeal and oil. so buying meal against oil is considered a bullspread. and vice versa generally a spread will turn a day or so before the market does today the meal oil spread was bulllish