User [amos /62.0.147.87] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:03:17 EDT 2000
User [mrj /209.16.79.203] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:03:44 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi amos
<amos> just the two of us
<mrj> yes
<amos> it was a song was'nt it?
<mrj> read your post today on women and men
<amos> nonesense
<mrj> it was great really enjoyed it
<amos> considering the tumult in the market in the last 2 days--it was insignificant and probably illtimed
User [fibo /204.119.225.187] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:06:39 EDT 2000
<mrj> I'm sure it helped break the tension for a lot of posters
<amos> I see June stated with a gap
<mrj> hi fibo
User [stockgirl /209.178.148.54] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:07:06 EDT 2000
<fibo> hi amos hi mrj
<amos> hi fibo
<mrj> hi stockgirl
<fibo> hi stockgirl
<stockgirl> hi everyone
<amos> I am not sure if Gary will be here to start--so we will start on our own ok?
<fibo> sure
<fibo> wow corn up 4 beans up 6.50 and wheat up 3.25 tonite
<amos> ANy more knowledge gleaned thru today's action?
<mrj> good news fibo
<amos> that is what I said that June started with a gap
<fibo> oh o.k. i wasn't here then
<amos> We do not know if it is for real--but if it is-- it is such a "typical" action that leaves many people
<mrj> June /
<amos> on the sidelines...It is also amazing how the market knows to do it on a specific time fram while on another one it is indecipherable...
<amos> I guess the reason is some weather kokamaime---- but the appearance on the MONTHLY chart...is significant...
<amos> However, as I said last nite--- there is not enough knowledge at this point in the market place...
<amos> The decline was much more severe than any one (even fibo with her 5.20) predicted---so we need a few more days--maybe thru
<amos> the mid of June before some verdict can be issued.... any input fibo?
<fibo> corn held support today and the one minute chart issued a buy signal at 224 ..for how long who knows..
<amos> I did study today a little more in depth what caught my eye
<amos> last nite in passing--that is the meal/oil spread...
<amos> do you care to listen?
<fibo> sure!
<mrj> y
<stockgirl> sure!
<amos> Historically (and I think also fundamentally, tho I forget the exact explanation) when meal
<amos> gains on oil--it says that the demand sturcture in the bean complex (and I guess in the food chain that this
<amos> family of protein is supplying)...is positive.
<amos> It does not mean that EVERYTIME the meal -oil spread is positive we will have a rally in the beans
<amos> but in general it is more associated with a rally in the beans than othjerwise...
<amos> We have a very interesting picture that the meal continues to obey all the technical requirements for
<amos> a well defined bull market (higher highs and higher lows on the monthly chart, to say the least) while the oil just had either a double bottom, or
<amos> a spring!!!
<amos> The beans themselves had an awesome outside month with a very weak close.
<amos>
<amos> WHen a market looks bearish and it is NOT--you have a perfect manipulating picture--
User [Frank /63.160.52.227] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:19:37 EDT 2000
<amos> to most systems and blind mechanical systems--the market has ISSUED a sell signal.
<stockgirl> what do you mean by outside month, please?
<mrj> hey frank
User [wes /172.139.170.125] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:20:05 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi wes
<fibo> hello Frank hi wes
<Frank> what u say mr j
<amos> They will be selling for the next several BARS because their system will not be able to adjust!!
<wes> howdy fibo
<mrj> amos is discusssing meal oil spread
<amos> I amnot sure this is what is happening, but I am open to it..
<fibo> k
<wes> thanks mrj
<amos> SG outside month is when the high and low of the monthly bar exceed the high and low of the previous bar...
<Frank> hi fibo wes , welocom stock girl from Ino
<stockgirl> thank you
<wes> hi frank
<amos> So I am talking this piece of information -- that is rather obscure at this point...combine it with ( ihave to admit that I am very biased by the CRB)
<amos> the very bullish chart of the CRB and I think that if this gap we are seeing in the first few minutes
<amos> of trade in the Month of June is valid--combine this with the bullish meal/oil structure-- you get here
<amos> the buds of a still bullish case. weather or not weather...
<amos> The proof of this pudding will be in a daily rally of several days and if volume appears-- much better.
<amos> I would not worry about entering immediately, or missing the first rally--because if
<amos> This is right what I am saying---we are into a rally that will go at least to $6.00--so the first 30 cents better be given up for
<amos> more certainty....
<amos> This is what I think at this (early) hour in June.
<amos> Comment?
<fibo> sounds good to me amos
<amos> When you get a 1 minute signal--do you use 1 minute stop loss signal too, fibo?
<wes> grains up in the overnight i guess?
<fibo> yes whatever i am using.. i don't risk much on any trade.
<fibo> i like the 15 min. & hourlys in the grains
<amos> Just to remind you people again--if you want to join Linda Rashcke open house--it is open tomorrow for public...
<fibo> yes wes corn up 3.75 wheat up 2.75 and beans up 6.75
<wes> k thanks fibo
<stockgirl> thank you amos.
<fibo> wish i could amos but i run my commodities program on dos so i can't be on the net at the same time. I am going to get another computer so i can be
<Frank> amos where linda r open house?
<amos> fibo, you mentioned on major uptrend line on the continuation beans that I think we have not broken (yet) what was it?
<amos> It is in ORegon, frank
<fibo> i think that was fran amos.
<Frank>
<Frank> ORegon?
<fibo> i would imagine it is from the low up through the 446.25 low
<amos> : http://www.mrci.com/lbr/
<fibo> which that is a long way down
<Frank> ok amos thanks so much
<amos> frank--get the link above!
<fibo> it has broken the line drawn from the 446.25 low up through the 522.50 low
<amos> No, fibo, there was somthing in the 4.94 area, but I do not remember...
User [lavona /207.50.1.153] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:31:45 EDT 2000
<fibo> hi lavona
<lavona> Hi fibo
<lavona> hello everyone
<amos> This is, BTW the time when and where accurate database is worth its weight in uranium....
<wes> hi lavona
<stockgirl> excuse me amos, are we talking about soybeans (the prices)?
<stockgirl>
<amos> At the critical moments--the people with the better tools will win. And I am
<mrj> hi lavona
<fibo> amos that widest trend line would come in about there
<amos> half blind right now.
<amos> yes sg
<stockgirl> thnx
<amos> 1 sec fib
<amos> unfortunately I am using this crappy eSignal which is such a distorted thingy.... I have to go to the real continuation chart
<Frank> brb
<amos> to answer that--and I do not want to overload my computer--I get bumped off too often recetnly..
<amos> At any rate--the fact that he had a potential spring in the weak sister-- the oil--has a great significance..
<amos> This gives me the opportunity to talk about sisters....care to listen?
<wes> y
<stockgirl> yes
<fibo> y
<Frank> sure amos
<amos> The composite man is a clever person... He has to communicate among himself (much they "talk among themselves" on SNL)
<fibo> lol
<amos> It is our role to find out where and when he is sending his subliminal messages.
<amos> It turns out that when you study charts and you have the advantage of your HIND sight-- you discover
<amos> (many times with great dismay) that had you looked at this or that chart.... the answer
<amos> was right there at your finger tips....
<fibo> yes
<amos> I cannot tell you how many times I was ready to flog myself seing how clear the picture of a maret
<amos> was on a certain chart had I only had the perspicacity (and patience) to look for that chart.
<amos> Someitmes it is in the deffered months, sometimes it is in a differently concatenated chart, sometimes
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.180] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:40:25 EDT 2000
<fibo> hi lmarsh
<mrj> hi marsh
<amos> it is in the spread (meal/oil; wheat/corn/; wheat beans; beans corn; intra-market; etc etc etc)
<wes> hi lmarsh
<lmarsh> hello everyone
<Frank> hi marsh
<stockgirl> amos, question please?
<amos> But somewhere the market will give you an almost perfect WYckoff definition that will
<amos> A) give you a very good risk/reward entry point
<amos> B) will give you confidence in your view of the market
<amos> C) will make the whole gestalt--rather clear.
<amos> There is great significant to your overall success in trading--if you can base your operation on
<amos> phenomena and market behavior that gives you a sense of confidence....
<amos> THe secrtet to this is very simple---HARD WORK...
<amos> It is not as simple as it sounds. You cannot just work hard and sweat. You have to work smart!
<amos> you must have bettertools than your fellow trader. You have to be able to look at all the data points
<amos> you can look at--you have to pour over those "pictures" until a picture emerges--but it is worth it.
User [lavona /207.50.1.149] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:44:09 EDT 2000
<amos> If you listen carefully to great traders (even Borsellino that appeared no long ago on INO.
<wes> wb lavona
<fibo> embed it in you brain so when you see it you just act on it
<amos> said in a private interview a few years ago--that he works every nite before he goes to sleep
<lavona> thx
<fibo> wb lavona
<amos> to map out all the support and resistance for tomorrows trades
<amos> and he was tradingONLY ONE MARKET.....
<fibo> it takes time to analyze just one market
<amos> So, when I talk about sisters--what I mean in the larger sense of things is that--when you look at one market
<amos> you must keep in mind all the "derivatives" of that market and if you do not see anything that you undersstand
<amos> in that particular market--often times the "answer" will be just next to it--in a related market.
<amos> Like looking for gold in one vein while the rich ore is 2 feet next to you.
<amos> Am I making my self clear?
<stockgirl> this is very exciting what you're sharingwith us, amos!
<fibo> good point amos
<stockgirl> yes
<wes> yes
<Frank> y
<stockgirl> i have a question please, about deratives.
<amos> So, when I saw the double bottom in oil (which is a rare phnomenon and when it happens--and you get a spring--it has
<amos> a very significant validity.... I got a little excited. The same thing happend in Wheat a few weeks ago and look at the strong
<amos> rally that ensued.
<amos>
User [Guest /207.194.173.59] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:48:08 EDT 2000
<amos> Mind you--the fact that you have a WYckoff phenomenon does not mean that a huge move will come out of it--
<mrj> amos: are you referring to today's action in BO as a "spring"?
<amos> but at least you know that the chance that at a double bottom the market will change hands from weak longs to stronger longs that
<amos> covered, or went long at that point--is high....
<amos> I told you last nite that I went back to read the basic SMI course--the original writings of WYckoff--written
<fibo> and?
<amos> some 70 years ago. It is uncanny. He is talking how a selling climax can take more than one day, how the volume can , at times even precede the actual lows by a day or two...
<amos> all the caveats that we tend to forget in our eagerness to make life easy and simple--by dictating that
<Frank> i have noticed that amos
<amos> a certain phenomenon musht have one and only one type of appearnce (thus negatin the need to THINK)....
<amos> all the caveats are there--written 70 years ago. The trouble is--you have to read and reread.
<fibo> in Elliott terms that would be a 3 (climax) then a 4 and a 5
<amos> A good friend of mind, a rather smart fello said:
User [wes2 /172.159.226.136] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:51:39 EDT 2000
<amos> You can never overstate the obvious.
<amos> I have to reaeate and ovestate it to myself, at times.
<amos> So that is the story of the two sisters. One of them was called Cinderall , the other had glass shoes.
<mrj> Amos: were you referring to today's action in BO as a "spring"?
<amos> Very much so
<stockgirl> amos do you think writing these obvious things out and reading them every day would help? principles of our own trading rules?
<mrj> explain please
<amos> this and eating 3 meals a day sg
<stockgirl> thnx!
<Frank> amos what time is that LBR open house?
<lmarsh>
<amos> when the s and p start trading--8:30 CST
<stockgirl> amos, i had a question about derivatives please
<amos> yes
<Frank> ok thanks
<stockgirl> you said that one could see the patterns in the derivatives of the each market
<stockgirl> i can see the derivatives for grains and beans
<stockgirl> what are is the derivative for softs, is it there?
<amos> no. this is New York. No help there...
<stockgirl> i'm thinking about sugar, specifically, since gary discussed it yesterday
<stockgirl> i see, thanks
<amos> You cannot do it in every market--but when you can--you ought to.
<stockgirl> so really only out of chicago then?
User [Guest] left forum on Wed May 31 21:57:28 EDT 2000
<stockgirl> yes, it made a lot of sense when you said it, as if a world opened up
<amos> For example--you cannot watch gold and silver alone-- yo u must look at the GSR (gold silver ration), you must looki at platinum and palladium,
<wes2>
User [mrj] left forum on Wed May 31 21:58:04 EDT 2000
<amos> you must look at the XAU index, you must look at individual gold stocks (they are usually a very good preruners of
<amos> gold and silver...whereever you can0-0youmust use all the tools you can find
<amos>
<lavona>
<Frank> hi Lavona
<amos> in the same way that Linda is looking at s and P; dow, nasdaq; stocks; tick; tiki; macd; adx; several time frames; etc.
<amos>
<stockgirl> so even if you are only concentrating on trading one market, beans, for example, you should look at everything that relates?
<fibo>
<amos> the professional trader-must absorb all the data analyze it and come as quickly as she can to the best
User [mrj /209.16.79.203] joined forum on Wed May 31 21:59:31 EDT 2000
<amos> conclusion and act.
<stockgirl> it makes so much sense what you are saying...how could it be otherwise...i just never thought that way before now.
<amos> This is planet awake, sg
<stockgirl> yes, amos, thank you!
<amos> But the trouble with all this is that it makes this "simple" game, all
<amos> of a sudden, rather hard and tesious--you really have to work hard (and very long) to make a great success of it.
<amos> The other option is to start rich and get enought computer gudgets to do most of the work for you.
<amos> This is one advantage of our age.
<stockgirl> yes, i have a trader working with me now, you'll know her if i tell you, she has been saying thesame thing to me oer and over this w/end.
User [Guest /207.194.173.59] joined forum on Wed May 31 22:02:54 EDT 2000
<amos> Ok lets do some "what-if" for the next few days.
<stockgirl> that a trader has to have the proper tools if there's to be any success at all
<wes2> k
<stockgirl> and must work very hard
<amos> What is the most crucial point in beans right now?
<wes2> 525 just a guess
<amos> folks, wake up...I want to collect good info.
<amos> whyu 525?
<Frank> looks like it is goin down
<amos> wes2, please do not guess-
<wes2> that is approx where gap left off
<lmarsh> sorry amos,pulling up charts now
<wes2> k amos
<mrj> 512 1/2
<amos> We start with teh monthly chart!
<wes2> k
<mrj> sorry 512 1/4
<amos> Yes. the low of May is now a road mark!!!!
<amos> if we take it (by more that say 1-2 cents)--all bets are off.
<amos> If the month of may was a shakeout month--we should not go below its low--is this clear?
<Frank> y
<amos> So we have clear support to watch for. What are some resistance levels?
User [Guest] left forum on Wed May 31 22:08:24 EDT 2000
<fibo>
<fibo> phone
<lmarsh> yes 519-515ish looks like nearest support on monthly
<wes2> brb
<mrj> 529 1/2
<mrj> 554
<mrj> 560
<amos> everyone is using the "friend " option?
<amos> that reminds me this joke:
<amos>
<lavona>
<amos> darn, I cant paste the whole thing--forget it....
<Frank>
<amos> we have to decide between 530, 554 560--which is crucial?
<mrj> 548 1/2
<Frank> 554 and 560 are crutial
<mrj> 529 1/2 is crucial
<amos> For this we have to go to the weekly and see which is a weekly thrust... some will go to look at 4 or 7 days average high---it takes work...
<amos> you see at each point another system will kick in...then you have MA and Stochastics that will start
<amos> turn in at those levels, then you wil have the 5X21 cross overs that will kick in----
<amos> this is not so simple--but If we look at price alone--it seems to me that weekly thrust would be rather
<amos> significant--wher is it?
<amos> 560?
<mrj> 529 1/2
<mrj> represents JOC
<amos> --that will change next Monday--because this week's high will kick in to be significant...you see
<amos> this is a continuous monitoring. THe market is dynamic and you have to follow and study it all the time.
<amos> You must be a continous guard. And you know what? Even the best guards fall asleep!
<lavona> night all
User [lavona] left forum on Wed May 31 22:16:21 EDT 2000
<amos> gn lavon
<fibo>
<lmarsh>
<Frank>
<amos> We hav e been here for several months and we still have not organized our group in such a manner
<amos> that this "homework" stuff will be done properly....this is not a good sign...
<amos> But Gary is responsible for this--and he is stilll getting decked
<wes2> back
<lmarsh> : )
<amos> Any other market that attracts someone's fancy?
<mrj> good night everyone good trades to all of you
<amos> gn mrj
<fibo> nite mrj you too
User [mrj] left forum on Wed May 31 22:18:56 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> nite mrJ
<amos> we always say good nite after the person already left. like talking to the wall.
<lmarsh> yep
<fibo> not if they read the log :-)
<lmarsh> well,,,,,that's true
<amos> you think people who attend the class read the log?
<fibo> i do
<fibo> because sometimes i miss something
<amos> I don't
<lmarsh> ditto, especially if I'm late like tonight
<amos> That is great
<amos> Any other market question?
<lmarsh> amos,
<lmarsh> amos would/could you give a topic / example for the type of homework you would like for us to start with?
<amos> I am in a coma?
<fibo> i have a question
User [stockgirl /209.178.148.54] joined forum on Wed May 31 22:23:49 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> sorry slow typist
<fibo> o.k. like today on july corn didn't make new lows but dec did..what do you make of this?
<Frank> amos I always plan my trades the night before, with s/r points
<amos> Not much fibo---I need to look at the July/Dec spread chart/if it has certain support or what...
<fibo> o.k. thanks
<amos> But one day like this does not tell much. If the spread is trending--then it will conhtinue
<lmarsh> excellant question,...i got one too, july cocoa oi is dropping, but december is increasing, does this mean that delivery will be more in demand in Dec?
<amos> Yes frank this is also the answer for lmarsh--homeworkd means that you are aware of all
<stockgirl> amos, i have a question please, something i don't understand because it only happens in the futures markets.
<amos> the geography, all the database info, all the facts that you can glean about a market--so that
<amos> when the expected happens--you act and when the unexpected happens--you run.
<Frank> absolutely amos
<amos> Jessee Livermore said it beautifully. I will try to paraphrase:
<wes2>
<amos> Not acting when you do not know something is bad...but not acting when you know something is inexcuasable.
<amos> It is not exactly what he said, but I have been typing for an hour and a half, what do you expect?
<fibo> absolutely
<fibo> more :-)
<amos> more blurred things is not better
<fibo> lol
<lmarsh> : )
<amos> We are stargin a new month. The month of June historically is an up month in grains.
<amos> Not necessarily in wheat which lingers till July....
<amos> This year the CRB is acting VERY differently than last few years--it says that commodities are
<Frank> corn had a very weak top which indicates possible upmove to me
<amos> moving to some forefronts. The atteniton is now in energy--but you see SUgar raising its (ugly/sweet) head
<amos> , cotton is running a little...the meats have already rallied---you have more and more commodities
<lmarsh> wheater question: This rain has been suposidly the bear in the grains, is not rain now for wheat be bad / bullish?
<amos> attaracting attention. A littel more and serious funds will put 1-2% of their capital into
<lmarsh> weather dont ya love my spelling
<amos> "Hard assets" and we will have nice rallies--- no matter what fundeamntal will be.
<stockgirl> are you saying a rally across the com. mrkts?
<amos> g! rain.
<amos> YES SG
<stockgirl> can you say why?
<amos> If the crb goes to 250--it will just be retracing another rally in a long bear market. Why not?
<amos> We are still at cost of production in many commodities---you do not need any interruption of
<amos> supply and demand of the real commodity in order to have a nice rally in commodities, just to
<amos> put some profit premium in them. I can't believe I am saying these things!
<stockgirl> why are you saying them? what are you picking up in your reading of the charts, etc?
<fibo> lol!
<amos> I hate this fundamental mumbo jumbo garbage.
<stockgirl> you talked earlier though about patterns that could be found across the charts
<amos> [as if any one knows the real state of affairs!]
<amos> and?
<stockgirl> any relationship between that and what you just said about a rally across the mrkts?
<wes2> amos you did'nt scan those comments in from a newsletter did you? 8-)
<fibo> lol@wes
<amos> You caught me wes--boy you are sharp!
<wes2> lol
<lmarsh> :*)
<amos> SG you do not want to start me now about TA vs FA here
<stockgirl> all right, i won't.
<amos> I just realized that you can combine somehow Technical Analysis and Fundamentl analysis and get
<amos>
<amos> : TOFU
<fibo> lol
<lmarsh> lol
<wes2> 8^)
<fibo> amos do you ever use a cash chart to trade the futures chart?
<amos> OK folks, time to go back to bed--I wish you all a nicer June than May (all except fibo and her smart hubby)
<wes2> nite amos thanks
<amos> fibo cash charts are THE MOST imortant charts there is--that is where the TRUTH lies
<fibo> lol thanks amos nite
<stockgirl> goodnight amos
User [stockgirl] left forum on Wed May 31 22:40:59 EDT 2000
<fibo> thanks amos
User [amos] left forum on Wed May 31 22:41:15 EDT 2000