User [gary fullett /172.153.155.126] joined forum on Wed May 24 20:43:39 EDT 2000 User [wes /172.153.88.241] joined forum on Wed May 24 20:49:21 EDT 2000 hi gary hi wes User [fran /209.100.190.160] joined forum on Wed May 24 20:56:35 EDT 2000 hi everyone hi fran hi fran hi kelly hi wes how are you tonight fran? User [mrj /206.251.171.45] joined forum on Wed May 24 20:59:04 EDT 2000 hi mrj hi gary fran wes hi mrj good evening everyone hey gary User [amos /62.0.147.39] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:02:54 EDT 2000 hi amos hi gary and Amos hi hi gary and amos very interesting day in the grains today but before we begin how is everyone tonight? k fine any questions? in accumulation...is volume usually small? User [fibo /204.119.225.134] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:04:43 EDT 2000 hi fibo hi fibo what do you mean fran hi fibo is volume small? hello everyone hi fibo the august gold has had big volume...just wanting to know what it could mean User [gtb /216.228.36.174] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:05:24 EDT 2000 hi gtb when did u see the big volume? hi gtb hi gtb hi all hi gtb today? fran? User [lmarsh /12.14.197.201] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:06:31 EDT 2000 the 17ty 19th 22 and 23rd hi lmarsh hey marsh hi lmarsh hello everyone did the market break on those days? hi marsh no so the market had large volume and rallied? been a mixed bag on market price okay User [Lavona /207.50.1.176] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:08:12 EDT 2000 well a general comment on gold hi Lavona gold has been slowly delining I wouldn't say the market broke per se Hi everyone hi Lavona hi lavona over the past month or so hi lavona I mean on the august daily chart gary but it seems like a it appars to me hi lavona that gold needs to show demand with good volume so the key price for the market in my opinion is 284 User [steveF /209.214.195.158] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:09:50 EDT 2000 hi steve this slow grind down to me if we are basically goin sdeways in a narrow range and volume is large....what does that signify? is to wear out the longs and slowly hi Steve hi steve hi steve User [vik /216.95.142.116] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:10:32 EDT 2000 hi vik hi steve hi vik hi vik hi vik hmmm very interesting question hi hello steveF & vik Howdy Folks to me it means that thewre is abttle between the longs and the shorts the bulls and the bears and soon it will resolve itself ok the "news : isnt bullish enough to conduct a rally so the market drifts lower but to me there is a preparation for a move this is why I say that the market need to show good price action with volume to the uside so gold is accumulating? for this toi be acumaultion well gold still acts weak we need to watch the volume AND price action for better direction k amos do you have a comment on gold? It is the worth of silence! We need a weekly thrust...that is simple! ;o) your mind works overtime Amos fran, I just woke up! well your mind evidently go to sleep didn't I said that gold above 284 will scream. amos at what level do u see this upward thrust? 284? When you say I screan--I hear ice cream User [chris /63.14.220.8] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:15:40 EDT 2000 hi chris 284 is a weekly thrust! hi chris hi everyone User [wes /172.152.0.3] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:15:58 EDT 2000 User [vik] left forum on Wed May 24 21:16:05 EDT 2000 okay Fran and wes on gold? thx hi chris okay sorry got bumped thats okay u came back :) hi Gary I htought today was an interesting day in the grains today the action today though lower in price action didnt appear to be aggressive selling it appeared to me to be the wek longs liquidating when the market gapped lower I think people got tired and got out the action was faily slow today but this week and into next week will be crtical open interest has been gettin larger and what does that tell u fran? not coming out in big numbers and>? is that bullish or bearish to you? cm getting long? ading shorts to the equation to me it is bullish they are leaning the public the wrong way on balance who is adding shorts? brb the public okay I think the grains are just in the beginning User [steveF /209.214.195.158] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:22:41 EDT 2000 of an uptren that began several months ago but currently we are range bound fran, the public never goes short...it only buys! but when we leave this range it will explode disagree Amos back put down the gloves :) amos your opinion on the ction of the grains today? or Fibo? you have many friends that sell short many commodities, fran? I dont know why but to me the wheat over the last few weeks has acted very strong personally Amos...I have made more money on the short side well hedgers sell commodities short fran, do you consider yourself normal opeople? markets tend to go down faster than they go up true it takes the stairs up and the elevator down it atkes buyers for a market to go up depends on who you ask Amos and it will fall on its own weight User [wes /172.159.148.121] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:25:48 EDT 2000 very well said good one fibo :-) I am serious...most people only know to "buy" somethihg, not "sell" it seems that the cm is most important I know that is true Amos.... If you want to discuss the bean chart in detail--I am ready, but we need to look at the daily chart. k k o.k. k k july right? The most crucial aspect of the last month are 5.1 and 5.15 lets talk beans they are two mirror images of each other. but they give amos gas so please be forewarned : ^{ 5.3 was a top of a rally, It was a large range day that closed in the middle. The volume was relatively high. The market had an inside day after that, broke for two days, tested the high of the inside day and reacted. do you all see that? y y y 5.15 was a large down day, volume so so and it clesed in the middle. You will notice that the next 7 days!! we are trading withing the range of that day!!!. That single day capped all the action in the beans for a week and a half. You can think of the last 7 days as a process of accumulation or distribution. Now it is upon us to decide which is which.... Let us call 5.15 sort of a selling climax... It was tesed the next 2 days...made a "double bottom" and rallied stongly. Only that the close was weak...that meant that supply was still there after that thursday. The market tired to rally last friday and this monday and failed. So if this is accumulation of the past 2 weeks.. we are now ini the process of some kind of a shake out. The CM must make a choice between going after the stops below 5.37 and be faced with many buy orders that sit there. I have now idea what he will do...but if it is a test of that "selling climax" at 5.37 or a shakeout... WHen it comes out of this range and decides to go up.... It will be AFTER 2 weeks of accumulation--I want to go with him.... Does this make any sense? very important comments by amos I hope you understand this process please ask questions this is important y somewhat yes, please continue riding a bull market is like riding a bronco soemtimes u may get bruised but doont get killed did u have a question Lmarsh Gary, are you a deck builder or a cowboy? lol no, I'm following,....soaking it up well I cant build decks or grow grass : ) So I will be a cowboy if not a cowboy an indian if he is afraid of squirrels...don't you think horses are out of the question So, if I am right about this analysis--it becomes clear that the minimum the market has to do lol! in order to be bullish--is to make a daily higher high. as long as you don't smoke a big cigar & say all it takes to make it is 15 min This means that a penetration tmw of 543 should be bought for a scalp at least. :) Now the other side--is that if the market is going to wash 5.37--it may go all the way to 5.30 which wiill be the next place amos...I've noted that often the big thrust comes after light volume...is this accurate? where major stoploss orders will accumulate--that is the monthly low at 5.30 gtb this is a loaded question. I am thnking about my"persona" life that is.... :) BTW what is gtb? I was thinking that gtbh is Good To Be Here I like it GTB generally that is correct when light volume is evident a pending large move will occur generally in my experience amos can u elaborate on GTB question? we started the month at 5.53 1/2 OK. so tomorrow can be even more interesting than today. IF we hold the 5.37 that means that woops 5.35 we tested that low now twice. Two tests are better than one. gary...so looking for that clue would possibly give us timing for the move If we wash--we need to watch the volume (intraday) around that 5.37 low. Gary, did we switch to nov yet? yes it can be a decent indicator tomorrow I believe it is something to watch GTB So the intraday volume will have more meaning there. watching and volume at ALL times is importnat to wyckoff do you have stopping volume on down moves as well as up moves I am of the opinion that a 60 min reversal tmw will be worth a scalp on the long side of beans and strike that...stupid question above 543 in July beans amos? a daily thrust will be a good intermediate long trade and a penetration of 5.60 will be very very bullish after what we have discussed last nite..which reminds me...fibo--did you do those numbers? yes can you share , please? on weekly, monthly & daily on weekly chart last weeks lo of 536.50 is support. Trend line support at 536.6 next support is 522.50 then 492 resistance levels in your opinion fibo? an interesting point is that the hi of 570.50 went back to the 1-11-98 bar where supply overcame demand . It was also an upthrust of ice at 566.50 lows of 11-20-98 and 11-27-98 that is it? on monthly resistance is 594 fibo has your opinion on the grains changed or are u stuill bullish? made on 11-30-98 . this is also a .382 ret. of last range. 50 % is 652.50 very good--so we can see from this that if 537 is broken--we are going to test 5.39 and then the real support if below 5.00 THat takes the wind out of the sails of the bullish argument!!! yes On the upside--5.60.5.66 and 5,70 are very close at hand. If we take these--we are going to attack the 5.94 and then we make a monthly high and who knows how high we go--8.00? User [fran] left forum on Wed May 24 21:49:12 EDT 2000 well amos in 1988 the high was 1099.50 User [fran /209.100.190.160] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:49:32 EDT 2000 This is very baluable road map, folks!!! valuable what cause that large rally in 1988? drought drought u 2 stutter :) is it similar to todays drought? User [Lavona /207.50.1.176] joined forum on Wed May 24 21:50:39 EDT 2000 back not here it isn't on monthly a trend line drawn straight across from 514 low on 8-31-91 has bery baluble been support. Market broke this huge ice line on 8-31-98 and went on to the 401.50 where were beans before the large rally in 88 in 88 it was really really dry all over q higher than here now okay wes low. this is the same creek line that we took out on 1-31-2000. beans were at 467.50 on 8- 31-86 does the cm get things set up for really big rally just incase it turns out to be pretty dry this year? okay thanx fibo your welcome well wes if the CM sees an opportunity to conduct a bullish camplaign he will no not really to answer your question k he knows the news weather? but doesnt buy it to just buy it in case of a drought droughts are not that common at least I dont think they are so common I have a question for amos and fibo true but the la nina & la nino hype sure has become popular 541 beans in late may historically is that cheap or expensive? cheap yes sir lmarsh with the govenment support program, I do not think farmers are standing in soup lines last may it was at 461 At least we can drive there tell me about the government support program AMOS let's hear the details :) looks like that 560 area has been support & resistance looking at a monthly Well, once upon a time, there lived a prince,... :) fran :) his Dulcinea lived in a far away state=----washington D.C> He did not like the D.C. suffis what is the gov support for beans? 5.39 suffix so he was going to do something about it. ,,....... so we are at that level now right Fran? below cash wise 5.14 cash local....state average.5.17 does that tell you anything yes the government subsidizes you to 5.39 from that point today fran if cash is under loan would it mean no demand? that is what I was getting at fibo don't know fibo...adm in Hoopeston said they are covered up with grain fran, what is the cost to you for a bushel of beans (average)? this is relative to many thing ....but 5.00- 5.25....many thing affect cost of production but average is this now if you figure yield...cost of land or rent...machinery, fuel and labor...many varied costs How many farmers, in your opinion would be happy with 50 cents profit? (i.e. lock to 5.75 any time the market touches it?) not many what's the average bushel per acre in good & bad years? That just about closes the fundamental discussion--the only force that will hedge below 6.00 are the ADMs of the world. we raise from 12,000 to 15,000 bushels... so you are talking 6,000 to 7,000 profit great huh? 6-7 k profit on all those acres> ? I think we are better to concentrate on the technical status of the market. thats it? me too Amos Folks, the numbers that fibo thru at us are very significant!! it is interesting to know I hope you jotted them down and you remember them for the next few months. amos and fibo do u both agree that the trend is up in the grains? wheat- sideways, corn sideways, beans up. did anyone watch the CRB today?> yes higher i'm not sure it was up 139 in the cash crb and closed at a new daily high today granted it was because of the energy market today but the close today was oimpressive is there a grain report that is forth coming? buy the way I know amos mentioned that wheat gnerally becomes bullish in July but the market to me has definitly acted very very well over the last few weeks 295 area was the previous high of the move above this level the 330 is the fdailies highs as the other grains have struggled latley wheat has been solid is wheat affected with drought as much as beans? yes especially if it is in the spring wheat drought already established in some areas wheat is being gathered now, ..isn't it? crop rating in wheat went down last monday in some areas there was no dry land wheat here this year.. harvest in Texas n & w tx no crop fundamentals in wheat are getting better all the time better? not for farmers stocks to use ratio is improving it is for some amos. the ones that use the markets Disease is the problem in wheat this year understand wheat has been feed grain at these low levels...when will corn have to make up difference if wheat rises? The market, the gov program, LDP, and the guts to sell and buy calls or go long only game in town Lavona farm on the board:-) you bet what's the wheat price that would mean that corn would resume as only major feed grain? Is monday a holiday? yes we close early on friday too yes amos yes Amos...no markets that makes next week a short one--and since as I said next Friday is crucial--thing will be condensed. 4 days next week i don't know gtb an you people imagine the losses that go on in the energy markets? 400 points days are so we have a good raod map to the beans now becoming routine. and we should watch thisI know it is very volitile tnx fibo how about the Euro amos do u see anything there? No, the dollar is bullish. period. I do think, as I told you that the cross between the swiss and the yen will gain. The yen should really drop like arock from here. arock or Iraq? will be interesting tmw to see what happens in beans above 5.43, 5,44 so long swiss and short yen in July amos? I havw a question on weekly bean chart concerning volume 542 14 now yes, you are leaving switzerland? that is why you say so long swiss? okay r J lol :) by the way I wanted to mention something for the last four weeks volume has averaged 63836 per day yes-long swiss/short yen the volume in the emini s and p has overtaken the big pit s and p in volume the last two days volume has averaged 38875 and today was estimated at 42000 okay mr j and? is this bullish or bearish does this reduced volume mean supply is not coming in even though price has moved lower? when the public is getting to day trade the e-mini--is this bullish or bearish? bearish why? usually last ones in aren't they By the way, I saw today on quote.com that the canadian dollar hit a weekly low...anyone wathcing this market? n fibo, do you have long term CD chart? mrj...it may mean that demand is not there no i don't amos sorry since the emini have such a large range and the small spec can trade this the large s and P are just a hege market fo stocks so volume stays the same k gtb but the public specs on the emini more players oi is lower than earlier part of last week too mrj amos can i answer Mr J yes, I am looking at it...66.00 is significant support inthe CD so watch for a nice bounce! so is it bullish or bearish? which market Fran? e-mini doesnt mean bullish or bearish just a fact on the volume when the public come in...I just gave my opinion I think the lower volume in the grains is the Cm being long and holding thier postions and the public particiation not being active now so volume is light okay Mr j I think the grains have proven demand k so the lower volume pullback to me is still bullish agree y need more demand for upthrust good night all great lesson nite Lavona User [Lavona] left forum on Wed May 24 22:38:33 EDT 2000 nite Lavona nite Lavona mayhaps the cm will slowly keep buying slowly, not to try to attract public yet?? just a thought : ) I think the cm will buy the supports on the breaks well any other questions? or comments? why are certain weeks significant? on the weekly a trend line drawn from the446.25 low great class.....thanks everyone nite marsh up through the 522.50 low is still holding. this is important support also nite lmarsh nite lmarsh fibo, 522, will break the monthly chart beyond a monthly spring--then all bets are off. yes started month at 5.35 of course, if they do it on some news and reverse in one day--that is another story! sure! :) is the 23 weekly low this week? YES!!!!! Tuesday could be a 4th of July fibo The CRB index is telling me that we are going much higher in the grains that is Micheal Jrdans old number so it must be a good number User [lmarsh] left forum on Wed May 24 22:43:02 EDT 2000 new high cash crb today interesting, gary. yes new closing high yes it could fran no, i mean MJ # I know :) why is that fran? key word..COULD lol! yes 4th is always pivotal in grains gary pollination...rain ect ok, I am going back to bed..gn all u mean July 4? nite amos thanks nite amos thanks gn User [amos] left forum on Wed May 24 22:45:21 EDT 2000 good night everyone nite mrj lots of times the markets make big moves after a 3 day weekend My computer is struggling with this chat . good night I wiil see ya'll soon nite mrj User [mrj] left forum on Wed May 24 22:45:56 EDT 2000 nite steve nite steve nite everyone night fran thanks Gary by the 4th of Jul. the corn is either made or it isn't nite fran User [fran] left forum on Wed May 24 22:46:23 EDT 2000 nite all and good trading nite fibo User [fibo] left forum on Wed May 24 22:47:15 EDT 2000 good night all see u tomorrow User [gary fullett] left forum on Wed May 24 22:47:36 EDT 2000