User [gary fullett /172.131.133.190] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:01:44 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> hey dpr
User [Name already in use /206.63.203.202] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:02:12 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> hi everyone
User [gary /172.131.133.190] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:03:44 EDT 2000
User [duh /206.63.203.202] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:03:44 EDT 2000
User [stockgirl /209.179.224.221] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:03:54 EDT 2000
<gary> good evening everyne
<duh> maybe the chat is kicking me out about every 30 sec
<gary> these charts are logged and put into the archives
<gary> hit enter every several minutes and it will elimainate this
<duh> got them
<gary> the archives>? Duh?
<duh> the charts
<gary> great did u have any qyestions on the charts?\
<duh> no guess not
<gary> we will be going over the charts in the 8pm class
User [Jack /63.29.97.15] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:07:00 EDT 2000
<duh> k
<gary> I want to talk about the grains in the later class so we all get on the same wave
<gary> are there any questions?
<gary> or is there a topic that you would like me to chat on
<gary> I would like to talk on trading ranges
<duh> k
<Jack> great
<gary> trading ranges are very significant to wycoff
<gary> because of the principle
<gary> of cause vs effect
<gary> in order for a market to make a move
<gary> either up (rally)
<gary> or down ( break)
<gary> they market Must have the energy to do so
<gary> and the way that markets do this
<gary> is by the sideways action
<gary> or a trading range
<gary> the way to look at a trading range
<gary> sideways on
<gary> one
<gary> is to watch for support or resistance
<gary> that sounds easy but it isnt
<gary> look at a sideways trading range
<gary> the support being the floor
<gary> resistance being the ceiling
<Jack>
<gary> to u follow me so far?
<Jack> y
<duh> y
<gary> great
<gary> now the longer sidewasy the longer the move
<gary> the longer the preparation
<gary> the large the pending move
<gary> like gas in a car
<gary> more gas the far u can travel
<gary> now that we know that the sideways
<gary> action will lead to a move
<gary> the 1 million question is
<gary> which direction
<gary> that is where we watch the market for demand and supply
<gary> strenghth and weaknesses
<gary> but first we must determine trend
<duh>
<Jack>
<gary> trend is your friend right?
<gary> but according to wyckoff principles
<Jack> y
<gary> if u have a selling climax
<gary> the trend has begun to turn from a bear market to a bull right?
<duh>
<Jack> y
<gary> so if we have a bear market
<gary> and we have a selling climax
<gary> the market will enter
<gary> its sideways range
<gary> right?
<duh>
<Jack> y
<gary> so if the market trend is beggining
<gary> to turn up
<gary> after the selling climax
<gary> what is the sideways action called?
<gary> if the sideways action is for the purposes
<duh> trading range
<Jack> accumulation or distrabution
<gary> of going higher when its preparation
<gary> right Jack
<gary> after a selling climax which one is it?
<Jack> accum.
<duh> accum
<gary> YES
<gary> very good
<stockgirl> this sounds the same as dow theory?
<gary> if the market has a buying climax
<gary> and goes sideways
<gary> what is the preparation for a down move called?
<duh> distr
<gary> what do you mean Dow thoery?
<Jack> distr
<gary> right jack and Duh
<gary> I know dow thoery
<stockgirl> well when you're talking about accumulation and distribution. same phases
<gary> but how do u correlate this
<gary> well yes the phrases are the same
<stockgirl> phases,not just phrases
<gary> but accumalation is the sideways actions
<gary> before a pending up move
<stockgirl> accumulation (consolidation), buying, and distribution (selling)
<stockgirl> accumulation (consolidation) and distribution (selling) is always the strong hands.
<stockgirl> the smart money first.
<gary> that is very very true
<gary> great
<gary> the strong hands according to Wyckoff is who?
<stockgirl> i'm sorry i didn't mean to interrupt your session was just trying to understand if there was a difference
<Jack> cm
<stockgirl> strong hands, the commercials
<gary> No stock girl please please interupt
<gary> I want u to ask questions
<gary> and use this chat for correaltion
<gary> thank u for contrbuting
<gary> Right the CM
<gary> do u know who the Cm is stock girl
<stockgirl> no
<gary> wellhe can be a commercial
<stockgirl> i assume in commodities stronghands are the commercials, weak are the specs
<gary> can anyone here describe the CM?
<Jack> composite man, the largest group of traders that controls where the price goes
<gary> to a degree yes stock girl
<gary> the composite man
<gary> is the minds of all the great traders in the world
<gary> like the George Soros
<stockgirl> yes, makes sense.
<gary> merril lynch
<gary> john tudor jones
<gary> Cargil
<gary> ect..
<stockgirl> but paul tudor jones once wrote that he cannot influence a market for more than a very short while
<gary> the composite man can be a commercial
<gary> but not always
<gary> the composite man " knows the news"
<gary> before anyone
<gary> and prepares for moves
<gary> though accumaultion and distribution
<gary> during a sideways trading range
<gary> the Cm is the person who :is in the know:
<gary> yes stock girl very good
<gary> but he is part of the CM
<gary> is u take the whole group
<gary> he is one part of them
<stockgirl> yes, i understand.
<gary> so if he influces in a short time
<gary> and cargil does
<gary> and every other Cm does
<gary> they work as a group
<gary> do Cm know other CM;s
<gary> ?
<gary> at times they are in cahootds
<Jack> you would think yes
<stockgirl> yes.
<gary> yes correct
<gary> they talk
<gary> we as specs
<gary> we can watch thier foot prints
<gary> do CM lose money?
<stockgirl> i cannot remember who now, but one wrote once about wanting to short oil. said he was taking to the best oil trader who was bullish. only when this trader said he was going flat did our friend short. and said he made a fortune.
<stockgirl> i have a question about news please
<gary> great story
<gary> yes please ask stock girl
<stockgirl> you said cms know the news first. i just read recently that news in the market is discounted as far ahead as 6 months. do you think this is lead time cms have as well?
<gary> very very good question
<gary> the Cm
<gary> generally runs a campaign
<gary> and this camplaign
<gary> generally
<gary> will last many months to yrs
<gary> so 6 months
<gary> is a good resonable time
<gary> in which the CM cab prep for a mmove
<duh>
<gary> so yes 6 months is a goofd time
<gary> to discount news
<gary> but with todays stock market they discount news daily :)
<stockgirl> you're telling me!
<gary> so the cm does know the news
<gary> anywhere from weeks to months
<gary> they usually dont react on a daily basis
<stockgirl> thank you for your answer. i don't know anything about wyckoff, i'm here to learn something about his system.
<gary> though they can influence the daily action
<stockgirl> are you saying that most cms will not "daytrade"?
<gary> they do day trade
<gary> but they may buy 500 shares of stocks
<gary> and sell 200 shares for a net effect
<gary> of 300
<gary> during the phase of accumaultion
<stockgirl> i see, so even on a day trade they are hedging.
<gary> so they do day trade
<stockgirl> they never effectively go "naked" even during a day trading session?
<gary> what do u mean go naked
<gary> I am glad that u joined us
<Jack>
<gary> stock girl
<stockgirl> yes gary?
<gary> I dont understand your question
<stockgirl> okay
<gary> about being naked during day trading
<stockgirl> you said they buy 500 and sell 300
<gary> they have a :net position
<stockgirl> that's effectively hedging.
<gary> but they both buy and sell
<gary> all the times
<stockgirl> yes, so they never just sell (naked)
<gary> that isnt heding
<gary> hedging
<stockgirl> oh, that isn't?
<gary> heding is if the bought something and sold something
<stockgirl> in equal parts?
<gary> I am talking about buying and selling the same stock
<gary> so there is No hedge
<gary> there is a Net position
<stockgirl> oh, i'm sorry i misunderstood.
<gary> they can just sell in a day
<stockgirl> makes much more sense now
<gary> or they can just buy in a day
<gary> but in order to fool the public
<gary> they do oth
<gary> both
<gary> that is okay
<gary> I thought I misunderstod u
<gary> they CM will buy support
<gary> and he will sell resisatnce
<gary> if he is preparing
<gary> an up move
<gary> he will buy more on balance then he sells
<gary> so he buys more at support
<gary> at the bottom of the sideways trading range
<gary> then he sells at resisatnce
<gary> at the top of the range
<gary> and when the market breaks out
<gary> when :he knows the news will be bullish:
<gary> he will have
<gary> his full long position
<gary> in a sideways range
<gary> that is prolong
<gary> the average trader
<stockgirl> i'm with you half way in this
<gary> will lose his patience
<stockgirl> before you move on to the average trader....
<gary> and not be in when the market moves
<gary> okay stock girl please ask
<stockgirl> first we were talking about day trading then we moved somehow to accumulation
User [Jack] left forum on Tue May 23 20:44:27 EDT 2000
<stockgirl> i missed the step in between
<gary> you asked about day trading
<gary> so I answered u
<gary> accumaultion takes place
<gary> over a period of time
<stockgirl> okay, so i can forget the buy 500 sell 300 net 200 has anything to do with what we went on to.
<gary> the Cm will buy and sell on a daily
<gary> basis
<gary> to accumallate
<gary> or distribute
<gary> ina longer term setting
<gary> we during the whole process
<gary> the cm
<gary> the cm will day trade
<gary> when he sees
<gary> the opoortunity
<gary> but that is nt his intention
<gary> his intention
<gary> is to buy or sell for the long haul
<gary> but if he just buys
<gary> when he knows the amrket is going up
<gary> the whole worls will know
<gary> so he must buy and sell
<gary> in order to have No followers
<gary> he must mask his intntions
<gary> intentions
<stockgirl> yes.
<gary> so his net postion maybe long
<gary> in accumaultion
<gary> but that doesnt mean he doesnt sell
<gary> so during the day he may buy and sell
<gary> but buy more net
<gary> so actaullly is is long
<gary> BUT he also sels
<stockgirl> yes okay, makes sense. makes a lot of sense
<stockgirl> yes, also makes sense
<gary> so day trading does have a place with wyckoff
<stockgirl> smart men and women these cms!
<gary> because it leads to a move utimately
<gary> Very very much
<gary> when I say he does this and he does that
<gary> i dont mean just Men
<gary> it is men and women
<stockgirl> yes, i understood you to mean that.
<stockgirl> as i said i know nothng about wychkoff. i have come to him in a roundabout way. backwards almost
<gary> that is okay
<gary> u will learn
<gary> the 8pm class
<gary> will go into chart
<gary> so evrything u learn in class will help u trade
<gary> it is more advance in the next class
<stockgirl> would it be better for me to wait until tomorrow at 7:00, the beginner class?
<gary> no
<gary> please come to the next class in a few minutes
<gary> do you currently trade?
<stockgirl> okay. but i'm curious, why not?
<stockgirl> yes, i trade the nasdaq
<gary> there are archives in the site that will help u
<gary> bring u up to speed
<gary> and I can help
<stockgirl> thank you.
<gary> futures or nasdaq stocks?
<gary> how did u find out about this class?
<stockgirl> nasdaq stocks (options really)
<stockgirl> i found out through a friend. he sent me the link and i came to check it out.
<stockgirl> i've just opened a small commodity account to start learning how to trade commodities.
<gary> oh okay
<gary> I am a broker as well
<gary> I ahve been trading for 19 yrs
User [mrj /206.251.171.233] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:57:46 EDT 2000
<stockgirl> uh oh, i don't like brokers very much right now (laughing!0
<mrj> hi gar and stockgirl
<gary> and I traded the s and ps in the 80;s in the pit at the merc
<gary> I hate the term
<mrj> gary sorry
<gary> but I must be upfront
<stockgirl> wow! that's impressive, did you win?
<gary> did I win?
<stockgirl> i appreciate it very much.
<gary> Hi mr J thats fine
<mrj> Is this the same stockgirl that posts on INO?
<stockgirl> yes, i know some people who made a lot of money trading t-bonds but lost big time on the s&p in the 80s
<stockgirl> mrj, yes i am.
<gary> it was a rough times the late 80's
User [amos /62.0.146.3] joined forum on Tue May 23 20:59:50 EDT 2000
<stockgirl> the firm is r.j. o'brien
<gary> that is the firm I am with
<mrj> I read your post nice to meet you
<gary> I will be back shortly
<gary> I need to take a break for a few minutes
<stockgirl> thank you. (i don't know what post you mean though).
<mrj> on INO forum
<stockgirl> you mean in general?
<mrj> y
<stockgirl> thanks. do you post there?
<mrj> n
<gary> I will brb
<gary> Hi amos
<mrj> feel intimidated seems to be a club
<amos> hi
<mrj> hi amos
<stockgirl> mrj. don't be intimidated, just post! it's only words.
User [jake /63.93.139.186] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:02:24 EDT 2000
<mrj> ok thanks
<mrj> hi jake
<jake> hi everyone
<stockgirl> mrj. i'm a "stockgirl" imagine the flack i used to get in the beginnig (laughing!)
<mrj> yes you did!
<stockgirl> mrj. so i say, if you want to post, post and the heck with 'em
<mrj> :) lots of egos
<stockgirl> sometimes. but also some amazing people if you can sort out the dross from the gold.
<mrj> that's true
User [chris /63.14.211.156] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:04:42 EDT 2000
<mrj> amos is good He gives them heck sometimes
<mrj> hi chris
<chris> hi everyone
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.192] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:05:49 EDT 2000
<mrj> you mentioned r.j. o'brien are you with them stockgirl?
<mrj> hey marsh
<lmarsh> hi
<stockgirl> i just opened an account with them.
<mrj> I'm with them
<amos> Gary, I think we should start with chart 3
<stockgirl> do you like them?
<mrj> yes very much
<mrj> they don't try to talk me into anything
User [fibo /204.119.225.50] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:07:42 EDT 2000
<stockgirl> mrj i think we're starting now. (like the movie) i should hush up. if you still want to talk more about posting on ino, get my email from alex.
<lmarsh> got some trouble with the charts, they say" internet error occured"
<mrj> hi fibo
<lmarsh> hi fibo
<fibo> hello everyone
<fibo> i couldn't print them off either lmarsh
<amos> this is like s__t happens
<lmarsh> true
<mrj> me too thanks stockgirl
<amos> Can't you open it on another window, without printing?
<fibo> mine wouldn't even open on imaging. it said internal error
<gary> Im back
<stockgirl> jealous, i could be a terrible client for all you know! give you lots of headaches!
<fibo> hi gary
<lmarsh> no amos,it won't open at all. the imaging software starts, then it lists error message
<gary> u use the imaging program
<jake>
<fibo> that's what it did on mine too
<amos> mine gives me an option to save on a hard disc or just open. I just open.
<gary> one sec kelly is here
<gary> she can explain
<lmarsh> yes, usually I just open it as well
<gary> can you open them from the archives or do you get the same error message?
<stockgirl> gary i did but seems not to be working.
<amos> I feel like Kelly's girls
<gary> stockgirl, where do you run into a problem?
<stockgirl> it's not working. i have it ticked. the other box is "ignore"
<gary> lmarsh, do you open them from email or archives?
<gary> i don't know why it doesn't work because it works on my pc
<stockgirl> my pc is a problem these days.
<lmarsh> email gary
<gary> stockgirl, do you have a problem downloading them?
<lmarsh> I'll try achives
<gary> I can't figure out why there would be an error code about the internet...
<gary> just so you know, this is Kelly... Gary called me to help with the chart problem
<stockgirl> gary, i was talking about the private key. it's not working. i haven't figured out yet what i'm supposed to be clicking on to get to the charts.
<gary> stockgirl, once you download the charts, go to Start, Programs,
<gary> Accessories, and then Imaging
<gary> open the Imaging program, and you should be able to open the charts from there
<stockgirl> but what am i clicking on here to get the charts to begin with?
<gary> At the top of this page, click on Chat Archives. Charts are on the left section
<mrj>
<stockgirl> laughing.
<gary> logs are on the right
<stockgirl> we just seem to be have a little miscommunication here, gary!
<amos> some logs are right here
<gary> stock girl I didnt mean to confuse u
<gary> this is gary now
User [stockgirl] left forum on Tue May 23 21:18:38 EDT 2000
<gary> well lets begin class
<gary> if you dont have the charts we will mention the charts
User [stockgirl /209.179.224.221] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:19:17 EDT 2000
<gary> discuss it and then get the charts to u
<mrj> wb
<lmarsh> k
<gary> amos did u want to discuss the charts now
<stockgirl> gary, i get lost driving down a straight road.
<gary> u mentioend chart 3
<gary> me too :)
<stockgirl> yes, gary, i understood, but it doesn't seem to be working (i have it ticked still)
<amos> Yes, I want everyone to imagine in front of their mind's eye--chart # 3.
<fibo> and the name of chart 3 is?
<lmarsh> please amos, tell us what chart/future contract?
<amos> nirvana
<fibo> lol
<amos> it is the beans weekly.
<lmarsh> k
<fibo> k thanks
<jake>
<gary> soybeans weekly
<stockgirl> amos, nirvana is beyond the mind's eye, soybeans are still earthly.
<amos> Even a dolphin can see that there is a 23 week cycle of the last two major lows.
<amos> The question is whether this cycle is a correct one. Let us assume that it is.
<amos> IF it is--we are on the 23 week from the last low. IF it is a low--then next week the market SHOULD
User [gary f /172.156.234.107] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:23:39 EDT 2000
<amos> make a higher high and for sure a higer low.. Is this clear?
<gary f> got bumped from aol
<lmarsh> yes
<amos> thanks lmarsh.
<amos> Let us assume that it will work that way. What can we say about this chart?
<amos> 1. The cm does not mind to show the cards
<amos> 2. The second low is coming at a higher high (if you look at corn--you see a slightly different picture)
User [chris /63.14.211.156] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:25:25 EDT 2000
<amos> 3. Th monthly chart is also good because we did not even spring the month of April.
<amos> 4. So far the silly maxim that when April takes out the highs of Jan-March....you have a bullish year
<amos> is holding.
<amos> 5. If we look at the daily chart--it looks like a rather clear accumulation with many of the Wyckoff definitions ...in place...
<amos> So we have quite a convolution of facts that point in a very bullish direction.
<amos> Now we can discuss a few "what-if" for the next few days--so that we can all be ready to whatever happens.
<amos> Is that ok?
<lmarsh> hadn't heard that maxim before,.....neat
<amos> Is is called Maxim Gorky
<mrj>
<fibo> k
<amos> ( a famout Russian author)
<chris>
<amos> There is a very important aspect to this cycle possibility.
User [Lavona /207.50.1.135] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:28:58 EDT 2000
<amos> And that is that this cycle...if it is good ...is very skewed to the right.
<fibo> hi Lavona
<Lavona> Hi fibo
<Lavona> hello everyone
<gary f> hi lavona nice to see u again'
<mrj> hi lavona
<Lavona> good to be back
<amos> One of the most important aspects of cycle theory is the concept of skewness. You can simply translate it to time-price
<amos> reationship is you want (much in terms of Gann, for Frank's sake)
<amos> If a marklet spends more time going up than going down...that is viewed on the chart as the peak of the cycle being closer to the next low...
<amos> That implies that demand is stronger. The next hige (swing) should take prices higher with more zest.
<amos> I c an only say that the next time we penetrat the last high (what was it?
<gary f>
<amos> aboutr 585 in July..... we are going limit.
<fibo> 570.50 weekly
<amos> thanks fivo, I am looking at chart 3 and in July it was around 5.85....
<amos> At the moment we need to go over 5.61 in July.
<gary f> amos do u feel that the beans are the \strongest grain?
<fibo> 582.50 on the jul hi
<amos> This number ---5.60 is obvious to many traders. So If this is right and we are going higher--it should be interesting to see how we are
<stockgirl> amos do you think beans will go above 6?
<amos> going to cross this number.
<amos> Yes, stockgirl--I think 6.50 to 8 is a given.
<stockgirl> so people who are currently shorting by selling 6.50 and 6.75 options could be blown out of the water if they're not careful?
<amos> What, folks , do you think will be the way the market can cross the 5.60 magic number making it most difficult for people to join?
<fibo> gap limit
<amos> people who are shorting options do it while swimming, stockgirl?
<amos> Gap limit from where, fibo?
<fibo> over the 5.60
<stockgirl> i don't know what they do, amos, i just know they've shorted beans and told me there was no way beans could go above 6.25
<fibo> could go up and stop short of the 560 then gap and go limit
<stockgirl> i'm amazed to hear what you're saying, it's an entirely different picture.
<amos> We will deal with them people in a separte flogging room.... THe question is what to expect in the next 4 days....
<amos> We already sneaked close to 5.60 and the CM turned it back.
<stockgirl> why would the cm turn it back, aren't they already long?
<gary f> yes they are stock girl
<amos> That can be done to get as many people to still short the market there. If we try again that number and turn back again
<gary f> but the CM doesnt like company
<amos> that will give people more confidence that 5.60 is a barrier.
<fibo> y
<gary f> so more weak shorts can sell at that level
<gary f> till they have to cover higher
<amos> I have no idea what and how the market will do it--but if we see on the daily chart that the market does not run AWAY from that danger area--that will mean small accumulation.
<gary f> it is the Cms intention to get more and more shorts in
<stockgirl> so the cm will fool people into selling, then they'll buy more lower and ride up alone?
<gary f> in order to raly the market
<gary f> that is correect stock girl
<amos> You usually see it with the daily making higher lows and like flies clinging to the ceiling...
<amos> low volume, narrow range etc.
<amos> At any rate, that should happen between tomorrow and next Friday.
<amos> So this chart is one of those crucial ones....
<jake>
<amos> I would say that if they want to make it hard---they will open one day say, 10 cents above the 5.60 area and stay there....
<amos> Not go limit up right away...but after they gap and rest.... just keep buying.
<amos> The same number in Nov beans is around 5.75.....
<mrj>
<stockgirl> they being the mms?
<gary f> why do u think over the next 4 days amos? the end of the month?
<amos> Gary did you look at spread charts of julyl nov---do they look interesting?
<gary f> I didnt look at the spread today
<lmarsh>
<gary f> but that spread is always one to watch
<gary f> they can give large moves
<Lavona>
<amos> the 4 days comes from the fact that this week should be a "low" and next week should be the beginnig of the next cycle---so it should make a higher high on the weekly.
<amos>
<gary f> okay i see thank u
<fibo> this week or next week?
<amos> You all know that the CRB index has already passed its verdict---so the question is whether the beans are going to be the next sector to
<amos> go up or not.
<gary f> well the way the grains act
<amos> I think that this is an interesting juncture and watching the grains carefully for the next few days--should prove profitable.
<gary f> the can lead the CRB up
<gary f> to new highs
<amos> Corn, (chart 2 has a "nice" head and shoulder for those who must use dundruff.
<gary f> I sent the CRB cash chart to u
<gary f> so everyone can see where we are at there
<amos> I hope you all recognize that the CRB is in a clear bull makret!
<amos> The fact that it too has a 5 month cycle low...and that we are approaching the mid year point---
<amos> it is usually significant--because if the market will realize that commodities must rally--and they start
<gary f> the second half of the yr the CRB can really take off
<amos> doing it past June--- then they will keep going until August- Oct. THis is the nature of the beast---it is some kind
<amos> of a herd mentality..... going on for months at a time....
<fibo>
User [chris /63.14.211.156] joined forum on Tue May 23 21:48:57 EDT 2000
<Lavona>
<amos> The main point is that the beans--which is the strongest group (remember way back when we were discussing the meal/oil relationship
<fibo> y
<lmarsh> y
<amos> and Gary said that this spread being bullish indicates long term bullishness for the soy group....it is showing now.
<amos> Instead of getting tired of this market taking its time---we should (at least in this room) understand that the accumulation
<amos> is just now coming to fruition and the mark up stage--is only in its infancy.
<stockgirl> are you saying, then amos that it would still be all right for a spec to position themselves long in this market?
<amos> right AND leftS
<stockgirl> wow! i should get in soon then. i'd better learn charts real quick!
<chris>
<amos> Now let us talk about the opposite...what if all this is wrong? what should happen and what should w e do?
<Lavona> k
<jake>
<fibo> brb
<mrj>
<stockgirl> amos would you put a stop in and where?
<amos> Let us say this rally ini the beans is an "ABC" correction and we are going to $2.00
<amos> What should the market do..to prove this view even slightly correct?
<fibo> it will take out support and keep on going
<amos> more exactly, please, fibo?
<fibo> supply has to show up
<amos> numbers please
<lmarsh> it should break 542 in strong volume, would be critical sign
<fibo> on Jul the 536 area
<amos> NO
<lmarsh> yes 536 is better number
<amos> It should violate the MONTHLY CHART!!!!
<amos> It should break the 532 with vengence.
<gary f> the monthly chart is the only chart that will turn the trend down
<gary f> if the grains turn bearish though the CRB will give up all its strenghth
<amos> So if you are a big trader and you want to make a killing on the next "beans in the teen"/drought thingy...
<gary f> and that is unlikley to me
<amos> You must put a stoop at 530.
<lmarsh>
<Lavona>
<amos> BTW. 23 and 23 is 46. That is amost a year that we are rallying in the beans....
<amos> that is significant. I have not looked at the yearly chart--but , fibo, can you tell us where the yearly thrust will happen?
<fibo> o.k.
<fibo> have already taken out highs for this year.
<amos> we are above 99 highs?
<fibo> the 1998 hi was 594 which is resistance
<fibo> no just a sec
<fibo> 556.50
<fibo> is yearly hi so far
<fibo> was made in Jan. 99
<amos> WOWWOOO do you realize how signigicant is the level we are at?
<amos> I did not think ( I must tell you folks, Iam having gooose bumps at the momnet!!)
<amos> this 5.60 is much more significant than I thought.....
<amos> WE already thursted the yearly and we are now reacting and this reaction is rather shallow...
<mrj>
<amos> If this cycle is good=--we ARE going to FLY.
<gary f> fly southwest !!!!
<fibo> lol
<gary f> they serve peanuts
<amos> Gary...we must study these charts in the next few days intensively!!!
<amos> I wish I had a good P&F now.
<gary f> I study them everyday
<gary f> it is my job!!!!!!
<fibo> the monthly high now is 560.50
<amos> Only Southeair serves peanuts everytime and their symbol is LUV.
<gary f> yes that is why I mentioend them LUV airlines
<stockgirl>
<stockgirl> gary, yes.
<amos> So, the next few days should be very nice. Watch, observe, absorb and act.
<amos> I have done my share of thrilling you.
<gary f> so what should we see in the next few days
<gary f> strenght with an increase in volume
<amos> The market converging on 5.60 and thrusting it with vengence between tmw and next Fri.
<gary f> and good volume with an increase in price
<fibo> the monthly high so far is 570.50 ..not 560.50
<amos> yes, good volume , Good Friday, Goodbye
<lmarsh> thanks fibo,..i was lost for a bit : )
<amos> Interesting fibo..It would be interesting if we gap over 560 would we also stay above 570.5
<fibo> sorry..
<gary f> amos I sent the corn chart as well
<gary f> do u have any comments o that
<gary f> /
<gary f> ?
<fibo> good question amos
<amos> I just said that corn has (according to the horizontal lines you drew) a nice H&S form.
<amos> It has the same cycle.
<jake>
<amos> If you study the skewness of those cycles you can see that the first cycle was skewed to the left--and indeed
<gary f> H and S?
<fibo> head & shoulders
<amos> we could not make a higher hig. This cycle is skewed to the right--which meanst that once we take out the NECK...
<gary f> I thought u would never ever follow H and s
<amos> we are goint at least to 2.90-3.00 area
<gary f> amos
<amos> I said many times ( maybe not here, but i did) that a head and shoulder formation which is part of the PLS, SC AR, ST and range and testing sequence--is a very reliable foramtion...
<fibo> neck =creek
<gary f> yes u did
<amos> neck=wood
<gary f> though I didnt want epople to get confused
<gary f> because wyckoff never ised that H and s
<gary f> if it is according to wyckoff terms then we can relate
<amos> The trouble with the eSignal volume is that it is not right. The corn chart shows the largest volume on the last rally
<amos> to the top--could be interpreted as sign of strength--bugt I am not sure it is correct volume!
<gary f> I sent the wheat chart
<gary f> and after testing the lows several weeks
<gary f> it had a nice spring
<gary f> and now seems to be acting very very well
<amos> Wheat is the weakest sister. I think it won't come to life until July.
<gary f> it looks as if the wheat has undergone some accumualtion as well
<gary f> but it acts well here
<lmarsh>
<gary f> can it start early?
<amos> We should all also watch the 284 in gold--we talked about it last nite
User [chris /63.14.211.156] joined forum on Tue May 23 22:17:15 EDT 2000
<gary f> the previous high?
<fibo> wb chris
<amos> Also, the 106.10 in Coffee is significant.
<Lavona>
<amos> The 1348 in the s and p
<chris> wb?
<mrj> welcome bck
<amos> wb is warner brothers?
<mrj> back
<chris> thanks!
<amos> we should all be as smart as pinky
<lmarsh> :)
<fibo> :-)
<gary f> coffee as amos mentioned had weekly support in the low 90's
<amos> fibo, if you can give us tmorrow all the significant highs on the beans: Yearly, semi, quarterly.... and see if there
<gary f> and had a 10 cent rally fom that level
<amos> is really a dompendium of some points--that could be very helpful.
<fibo> o.k will do amos
<amos> tks
<fibo> your welcome
<amos> May be--we can do a detailed daily analysis of july or nov beans and try to nail this correction
<amos> from a Wyckoff point of view--somewhat microscopically. Can be interesting.
<amos> The July volume on eSignal will be accurate enough for the daily at this point
<fibo> k
<amos> Gary, can you send beans daily tmw?
<gary f> Yes I can
<gary f> free of charge too
<gary f> I did send them tonight
<fibo> ;o)
<amos> meaning worht zero?
<gary f> I sent daily chart of the beans for the past yr
<mrj>
<chris>
<gary f> yes Sturat free of charge synonmous to No charge
<amos> I take it back, you are right chart 5 is daily.. But try using the 90 day ooption so that we only see clearly the last 3 months... just for the nature of the correction from a Wyckoff point of view....
<lmarsh>
<amos> When you use the magnifier of the Imaging software--you can either see price OR volume, not both.
<gary f> I sent a longer term daily chart
<gary f> I will send the 6 month tomorrow
<gary f> k
<amos> You see a cqg with its learning mode--could have been now a wonderful Power Point type presentation...
<amos> and can be very instructional!
<amos> (and profitable, I might add)
<gary f>
<gary f> k
<gary f> tomorrow I will send sme charts with a 6 month daily chart
<lmarsh> sounds good
<gary f> are there any questions
<gary f> otherwise I will call it a night
<fibo> yes did you get the grass planted?
<gary f> thank you amos for your impute
<gary f> hey
<gary f> that I can answer!!!
<gary f> the grass is coming in
<gary f> I graduated deck schoool
<gary f> I reseeded today
<gary f> with Peat moss
<fibo> great! did Kelly pass the test for you? ;o)
<gary f> and it looks great !!!
<gary f> I hope it comes in
<fibo> good gary it will
<gary f> well I had to nil a srew in
<gary f> screw in
<fibo> lol
<gary f> and it took mw 5 mnutes
<fibo> ROFL!
<gary f> but I did it with an electic screwdriver
<gary f> the class waited for me to finish
<fibo> lol
<gary f> I was so tired afetr wards
<gary f> I went to sleep:)
<fibo> lol
<lmarsh> : )
<gary f> I missed the opening of th amrkets today :)
<fibo> uh oh !
<gary f> thank goodness I work at home
<gary f> I made it for the grain opening :)
<fibo> well glad to hear about the lawn.
<fibo> night and thanks
<gary f> I am not patient
<gary f> I ressed the bare spots
<chris> thanks all, nite
<gary f> I hope they come in
<mrj> good night all thanks amos and gary
<gary f> night chris
<gary f> night mr j
<fibo> you can't hurry the grass..it will come up when it's ready :-)
<fibo> night amos and thank
User [mrj] left forum on Tue May 23 22:35:21 EDT 2000
<Lavona> nite
<gary f> it wont grow in 3 days?
<fibo> nite Lavona
User [Lavona] left forum on Tue May 23 22:35:38 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> nite, & thanks everyone,
<fibo> lol! gary only corrections last 3 days :-)
User [chris] left forum on Tue May 23 22:35:48 EDT 2000
<gary f> will the established grass give rise to new grass?
User [lmarsh] left forum on Tue May 23 22:36:06 EDT 2000
<gary f> that is why I htought 3 days
<gary f> 3 days for a correction 3 days for grass :)
<fibo> yes gary it just gets thicker all the time
User [Guest JK /172.130.150.55] joined forum on Tue May 23 22:36:29 EDT 2000
<gary f> so if the grass gets thicker
<gary f> and there is a bare spot next to it
<fibo> well i guess some corrections last 10 days..so that might correspond with the grass
<gary f> will that grow in to as the other grass spreads?
<gary f> )
<gary f> hi JK
User [fran /207.112.162.135] joined forum on Tue May 23 22:37:16 EDT 2000
<fibo> yes gary... if it is a small spot.
<fibo> hi fran
<gary f> hi fran talking about my grass
<fran> hi everyone
<fibo> get through fran?
<fran> ;-)
<Guest JK> <Enter Text Here> Hey gary
<fran> YES
<gary f> well I resseed with peat moss
<fibo> hi JK
<gary f> I turned black when it blew in my face
<fran> about 2 hours ago
<fibo> great fran!
<gary f> all crops planted fran?
<gary f> no rain
<fran> YES
<fibo> i told you it was light :-)
<fibo> 102 here today..a record
<gary f> i know it went in my ears and face
<fibo> lol!
<gary f> wow it was 80 here I think
<gary f> I looked like Sammy davis Jr
<fran> that's hot! fibo
<Guest JK> Any coffee views ?
<fibo> lol
<gary f> yes I think coffee is very bullish
<gary f> I am looking for 140
<gary f> I water all day long
<gary f> water water water
<Guest JK> I know, but nearer term,
<fibo> we do too gary & ours is established
<Guest JK> 105-108 ?
<gary f> I think it may pullback to the 100 lvel and rally from there
<fibo> it will be worth it when it comes up
<gary f> cant overwater huh>?
<fran> Amos said had to take out 106 something last nite
<gary f> the peat moss keeps it there
<Guest JK> cool
<fibo> must keep it moist till it comes up..
<gary f> 106.10
<fran> ok Gary
<Guest JK> agreed
<gary f> i try not to let it get too dry during the day
<fran> Gary....have you looked at gold?
<gary f> are u long coffee JK
<gary f> yes I have
<gary f> I am long gold here
<gary f> needs to take out 284 though
<fran> yes
<gary f> the peat moss helps
<Guest JK> Garry we talked all day Mon
<gary f> how long without water ill the seeeds die?
<gary f> okay
<fran> you guys already did all the charts?
<Guest JK> Long definatley
<gary f> now I know
<gary f> who u r
<gary f> u missed 2 and 1 /2 of class
<gary f> yes on grains fran
<gary f> tomorrow we ill look at the beans agian okay
<gary f> we are bullish
<fran> ok
<fran> ok
<gary f> coffee too !!!!!!
<Guest JK> still cant download charts or app
<fran> ok
<gary f> how come?
<gary f> JK?
<gary f> u should be able too
<Guest JK> i dont know
<fibo> nite all
<fran> JK...you saving them to disc?
<gary f> print it not from the browser
<Guest JK> goes to desktop, then doesnt come up
<fran> nite fibo
<gary f> night fibo thanx
<fran> glad to see ya back
User [fibo] left forum on Tue May 23 22:44:07 EDT 2000
<gary f> it is the button on the far left JK
<amos> I am going back to sleep too. gn all
<gary f> night amos didnt know u were still here
<fran> put it in documents
<fran> hi Amos
User [amos] left forum on Tue May 23 22:44:45 EDT 2000
<gary f> he is referring to the app,ication on the website as well fran
<Guest JK> ok ill try that
<gary f> k
<Guest JK> wish it was easier though
<gary f> it should be very easy
<fran> I don't have a prob
<Guest JK> im not a computer wizzard
<gary f> not many probs
<gary f> me eithr Kelly does it for me
<gary f> my helper
<fran> JK...you got explorer?
<Guest JK> lol
<gary f> I dont do it JK
<Guest JK> should
<gary f> I trade Kelly works :)
<fran> JK.....does it come in your e-mail?
<Guest JK> initial chart did yes
<Guest JK> couldnt get it up
<Guest JK> from desktop
<fran> desktop?
<Guest JK> desktop is where it was downloaded to
<fran> click on the icon at bottom of e-mail
<fran> when it asks you ...save it to disc
<fran> put it in documents
<fran> not desktop
<Guest JK> what icon
<fran> then go to documents and open it
<fran> a little icon at bottom of e-mail
User [gary f] left forum on Tue May 23 22:49:52 EDT 2000
<fran> looks like it has a tree on it
<Guest JK> there is no icon
<fran> should be
<Guest JK> but will try putting it in documents
<fran> ok
<Guest JK> thanks
<fran> what is your e-mail...will forward mine to you
User [gary /172.156.234.107] joined forum on Tue May 23 22:51:06 EDT 2000
<gary> sorry got bumped
<gary> thank u fran
<Guest JK> www.souldoctur@aol.com
<fran> brb
<Guest JK> k
<gary> the dog is barking needs to go out I will see u all tomorrow night
<fran> send it to you see what happens
<gary> good night all
<gary> thanx fran
<fran> nite gary
User [gary] left forum on Tue May 23 22:52:09 EDT 2000