User [amos /62.0.146.189] joined forum on Mon May 22 20:59:16 EDT 2000
User [mrj /209.16.79.191] joined forum on Mon May 22 20:59:56 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi amos
<amos> hi
User [Gordy /63.88.62.50] joined forum on Mon May 22 21:00:13 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi gordy
<Gordy> Hi gang
<amos> has been a while since I left my gang
<mrj> same here
<amos> I think we were called the "sharks"
<amos> narrow months (shortening of the downward thrust) and the demand appeared.
<amos> This is not a classical selling climax on the monthly chart in Gold.
<fran> the one written by Hutson and Weis wes
<amos> Please, do understand that a classical selling or buying climax is rare and is a gift!
<fran> then it doesn't have to be so?
<amos> ? fran
<fran> if you can't find one ...it isn't the end of the world
<fran> the market can still do it
<amos> end of the world? I doubt it ( I do not even have a good joke at hand)
<Lavona> We are doomed
<amos> I do have doom on my comuter but I don'
<wes> lol what you said was'nt too bad
<amos> t like to play it
<fran> I mean....the market can still have the other Wyckoff phases without the selling climax
<amos>
<amos> good point, fran. Just because there is no selling climax--does not mean that the coming sequence ( of a bottom , say) will not be classical wyckoff with the range and the
<amos> terminal shakeout and sign of strength etc.
<fran> AMEN...thank you
<amos> Do you people know what AMEN means?
<Lavona> no
<lmarsh> ?
<fran> not really
<amos> But you say it all the time?
<wes> i do
<amos> It is a word in Hebrew-- derived from the word "EMUINAH" which means belief.
<amos> AMEN is simply "I blieve."
<lmarsh> thanks amos, that is valuable info!!
<Lavona> Gee Amos I am disapointed I expected a funny
<fran> strike AMEN and put in Halleluja
<fran> didn't spell that right did I?
<amos> LIfe is full of surprises, lavona
<lmarsh> yah
<Lavona> Good for us too!
<amos> Do you know what Halleluya means?
<Jake>
<lmarsh> yes, think so
<fran> fraid to ask
<wes> talked to gary this am he said he had some clients that bought that option
<wes> the lord be praised?
<amos> exactly, two Hebrew words: "Hallel and Yah(veh)"--praise- g-d.
<fran> Yahweh
<Lavona> k
<lmarsh> great!
<amos> You see how you can learn something WITHOUT a selling climax?
<fran> well that fits...I saw the light
<Lavona> lol
<wes> :-)
<Lavona> :)
<amos> DId you people read my "road of the crb" and the weekly significance on the post board?
<Lavona> Amos what is the soybean 23 on the forum
<wes> amos can you think of most recent classical selling climax?
<lmarsh> yes
<mrj> yes
<fran> no
<Lavona> y
<amos> This is a clear 23 week cycle that you can see on the bean chart.
<Lavona> why is 23 imp?
<amos> The trouble with cycles--is that you can only know if they worked in hindsight (true for many things in life also...like marriages etc.)---but
<amos> the significant thing here is --IF THIS cycle works---
<amos> then it is coming at a much higher low.
<amos> This, in cycle theroy can be very bullish!.
<fran>
<lmarsh> good
<Lavona> ok
<amos> The crb has no resistanc until 230--and if the energy is topping and the meats topped--then the groups left to rally the market are
<Lavona> grain :& metals
<amos> softs, metals and grains. I think the metals are weak and the softs (some) are also.
<amos> So the grains are the most ready group to rally. AWeather or no weather.
<Lavona> great
<Jake>
<amos> Also, remember that wheat has a tendency to bottom in July-- so those of you with patience--should be able
<wes>
<amos> to catch a good signal in decemeber wheat and pay for this chat class nicely...
<Lavona> is the enery topping or going into a corrective phase
<lmarsh> : ^)
<mrj>
<amos> I think that the energy is in a major bull market and we can see crude in the 35 -40 area
<Lavona> It seem that many years 4th of July is trend change time or you suggecting this years same
<fran> HO isn't breaking like it usually does thisa time of year
<amos> Sure,. markets must respect American independence...must
<Lavona> Oh Amos
<amos> HO usually rallies in the summer!!
<fran> that isn't what I found
<amos> I do not know what you found,. I know I lost a fortune thinking otherwise.
<fran> brb
<Lavona> Amos are you expecting a new all time high in crude
<amos> Most years heating oil declines thru the winter (that is because it is a futures market and producers hedge into the winter by being long and after they bought--they sell to hedge atainst price decline...the oppostie of what
<amos> the public thinks
<Lavona> k
<amos> I do not know about higher than the gulf war0---that was panic buying--but the market looks like it is in a nice
<wes>
<lmarsh> makes sense
<amos> bull market and it can go on for a while....2 dollar a gallon is not that much compared with the rest of the world and wages
<wes> everyone still there?
<lmarsh> gotta say, i hope it isn't the energys that keep the crb on it's uptrend, no telling what we'll pay for gas : (
<amos> The crb is bullish too. If this index goes above 230---it can easily go to 250.... nothing out of the ordinary--
<amos> but that will mean mean 8 dollar beans and we can see 35 dollars a barrel.
<amos> 2; 2.50 a gallon
<lmarsh> take your time, PATIENCE is a verture.
<fran> primary low in HO on average is made in april...then up until june...then down into last of july first of august....this is based on dec contract
<fran> tops come in oct to feb
<amos> OK, fran, this dip from June to august is possible--I am talking about the large trend to rally from april to DEc
<lmarsh> yeah, but the grain money would stay in the states, or at least more of it. : )
<Lavona> Is anyone else getting locked out ever now and then
<amos> grain money? is not it green money?
<lmarsh> : )
<Lavona> lol
<wes> y lavona
<lmarsh> and I'm not a farmer!
<mrj>
<amos> Lavona, last week I could not log in--I was sitting all by myself in a closed rum of Multicity--and no one cdame to talk to me...
<Lavona> Okay could this week mark a top in grain then going side ways til July?
<amos> This site is not working too well in the last few weeks--but today it seems to work fine
<wes> 8-(
<fran> well in that sentence you had rum and a dame Amos...what else do you want
<lmarsh> is the sun rising in Israel yet amos?
<Lavona> Part of the time I don't see what you are typing then a flood
<amos> Any particular question here of a specific market last week or todya?
<amos> Fran-- you read me all too well.
<Jake>
<fran> you typed it Amos
<amos> No it is dark but I can hear a few birds twitting
<amos> I typoed it.
<fran> yep
<Lavona> could week 23 be a top in grain
<Lavona> yep
<amos> No lavona...this should be a 23 week low. There such a thing as cycle inversion--but it is very rare.
<fran> not talking beans lavona...talking typo
<Lavona> Thanks you I appreciate your hard work
<amos> Look, the low of 537 was a test of the monthly chart. IF we close May without violating the low of April--then we still have on the monthly
<amos> chart higher high and higer low. THis combined with the potential 23 cycle low and considering that we have finished
<amos> a nice accumulation in the beans-= can be very powerful. Do not lose your patience on the grains now.
<amos> The crb says BUY, the Beanse say BUy and I say buy. You see the gradual decline in capitals???
<lmarsh>
<wes>
<fran> my point and figure chart is up
<amos> what service?
<fran> support held on trend line coming from the 11/19/99 low of 4.58
<fran> right hand and pencil Amos
<amos> rhandp? I like that
<amos> Too much work in this day and age
<fran> point and figure?
<amos> yes, on every market?
<fran> don't you like to X and O
<fran> :-)
<Lavona> kiss & hug :)
<amos> I love them, but I let the machine do them for me. Like spaghetti
<Lavona> Must go good night all
<amos> Gary must be flunking his finals today in deck making
<mrj>
<fran> see I don't do every market
User [Lavona] left forum on Mon May 22 22:20:14 EDT 2000
<amos> No particular question on particular market?
<fran> nite Lavona
<lmarsh> what 's your thoughts on cocoa & coffee amos
<amos> Oh, in that case it is fine. I need P&F on every market.
<amos> Coffee needs to penetrate 106.09 to have a monthly thrust. Cocoa is trying.
<fran> you are in a different ball game Amos
<amos> Coffee is more bullish than cocoa because of the rally in oct last year. Cocoa will slowly rally may be
<amos> to the 1000 1050 area...
<lmarsh> great, thanks!
<amos> But the big bull market in cocoa is 2-3 years away--then we will have a large bull market to 1700 or higher.
<fran> whoa
<amos> Coffee is another story--it should go to 140 between now and dec and next year again a bull market
<amos> .
<wes> how about oj amos?
<lmarsh> veeery interesting...
<fran> I like the looks of oj
<fran> look at that trading range
<amos> For some reason I do not like this market. I did not analyze it lately--so I cannot say a word.
<wes> ok
<amos> Look at that trading range go....
<lmarsh> oj sidways for a long time for sure
<fran> what do you mean Amos?
<amos> Is not it a children poem?
<fran> isn't that accumulation?
<amos> I told you, I have not looked--so I do not know.. I must look at the monthly first. I think the range is on the daily.
<Jake>
<fran> you are right there...you peeked
<amos> I peaked( unfortunately)
<wes> lol
<amos> No, fran, I remember Gary talking about oj and I looked them. It did not impress me a few days ago.
<wes> brb
<fran> weekly looks good too Amos...peek again
<amos> Please do keep in mind 284 in gold, 106.10 in coffee and what should be the buy signal in beans?
<mrj> Amos: on the monthly continuation chart for sugar, does this month's price action represent a JOC If so, would you comment on the low volume for this month compared to last month
<amos> good point mrj. Last month was volume off the bottom. This month is respectible volume....oooops I take it back
<amos>
<amos> I am looking at e signal and it is contract volume, not total volume. DOn't know . Sorry.
<mrj>
<fran> monthly chart is more complicated in oj
<amos> the crucial price i n July beans is 561.
<fran> what would be your buy signal in soybeans Amos?
<amos> 575 in nov beans
<amos> am I frozen?
<amos> 575 stop in nov
<fran> your here
<lmarsh> sugar monthly volume, march @ 458392 april@ 486330 ???
<amos> what was feb and jan
<lmarsh> 319196 for Jan
<lmarsh> 530949 for Feb
<fran> finally got rid of the huge carry that was in soybeans...more normal now
<lmarsh> my data must be off
<amos> I do not know. I must study it. Good question, tho lmarhs
<lmarsh> brb
User [Jake] left forum on Mon May 22 22:36:14 EDT 2000
<fran>
<amos> Ok folks, If you do not have any specific question--then lets call is a day ok>
<amos> ?
<fran> ok thanks
<amos> Good nite all.
<fran> nite
<lmarsh> ok amos thanks
<fran> nite everyone
<amos> you are welcome bye
User [amos] left forum on Mon May 22 22:37:07 EDT 2000