User [amos /62.0.147.198] joined forum at Mon May 08 12:54:10 EDT 2000 hi jimbo & amos Evening all hi, chromosom 21 was mapped!--down syndrome hey mr j jimbo, amos hey frank, mrj, amos 4 muskateers, eh? Where did you hear this amos amos you think we will all live forever? looks that way on the news as I logged on Does not matter, Frank, the main thing is what is hell like, for I am sure going there User [fibo /206.104.30.185] joined forum at Mon May 08 12:57:57 EDT 2000 hi fibo hello everyone hi fibo sheol amos, simply the grave I believe we create our own hells amos No way, Jimbo, I hear the parties there are awesome well i guess the volume on the corn was stopping volume User [eric /208.134.223.101] joined forum at Mon May 08 12:58:52 EDT 2000 hi eric good evening User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Mon May 08 12:59:16 EDT 2000 85000 estimate fibo, you guess, or you hope? hi eric di you get into the site yes, thanks mrj should we have a serious talk about corn? great well the ranges were large and volume was large..going up..but then it just stopped yes on corn may is a seasonal high month for corn But the daily bar closed at the low,,which means that for the moment supply is winning? looks like it So the real question is where is the important support? the 241 is support on the Jul. had too take buzz to the doctor so i did not sell corn today then the 238.75 then 231 If we look at the weekly chart and we assume that last week was some kind of break thru and not a thrust... User [Jeff Z. /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:03:43 EDT 2000 then the most important support is last week low which is 235 1/4 who is buzz, frank, forgive my ignorance my wife, short for buzz saw hope she is o.k. frank female problems, me too iif her name is for buzz saw in the house, what is your name, Frank? Ok, folks, Gary is now practicing Home wrecking, so we are on our own for an hour. User [lmarsh /12.14.197.187] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:07:16 EDT 2000 hi marsh I would like to have a serious discussion on the corn. hi lmarsh I have no idea amos , she snores, like a buzz saw, but it is like the noise on a ship or plane, so it puts me to sleep grettings, Support, resistance, definitions, probabilities, the whole shmeer lol@frank User [fran /209.100.190.157] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:07:59 EDT 2000 hi fran hi fran hi people hi frann Ok, Frank, we will devote a whole session to solving you marital problems some other time. Do you all have a chart, or an image of a chart of daily july corn in front of your mind's eye? wouldn't consider my marriage a problem y y y y y y fantastic Frank. hi davep y hi fibo LEt me rumble for a few minutes about corn--and you interrupt any time your soul so wishes... got chart go amos Last Wednesday prsented a proble,...It was that the market had a very wide day (one of the widest in a while) and closed in the middle, or slightly below the middle. We know that after that day there was some balance between supply and demand for the momentary battle. The next 2 days were inconclusive.... the first day stopped around th close of Wednesdy and Friday saw a weak reaction. The weekly chart still showed a break to the upside and the monthloy chart looks good. We come today and the market starts higher and turned viciously to the down side. We must ask ourselves now--what is the meaning of today's action. On the surface it looks like supply came in with vengence. WHat are our options in interpreting today's action? We have basically two options: 1. It is bone fide supply 2. It is some kind of a washout. Let us bring arguments for both options. Anyone wants to be the devil's advocate (or the angels advocate, if you are short) for case no .1? User [wyatt /166.93.111.143] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:14:55 EDT 2000 volumn looked like it could have been a selling climax wednesday buying climax? I am asking for arguments about today's action y buying climax sorry for short side Guys, we are detectives, we are looking at behavior of the market and we must deduct what does it mean... the whole move down from the high has been on lower volume wide price range close near low what is the intention of the CM....so lets think like him and ask the right questions, and point to the correct facts todays range stopped at creek line area volume higher than yesterday based on estimate Could be retestof minor support at previous wed highs? good mrj...wide price tange and close next to the lows--so the cm did not cover at the close...that means that he think u had an inside day, a short range day then an uncoiltoday he can cover lower tomorrow.. high volume.... fibo, your argument is for no 2. w the CM doesn't want any free riders to the up side, so he shook out those who entered on the latest markup. let us be sellers, for a moment and make all the argumnets for the bearish case amos is building case for short side k So far the arguments supporting the first option that today was a bone fide supply are: A> Large range, closing at the bottom fell through the ice line at 250.50 B> large volume C> Fell thru SOME ice, very good, D> had some kind of an outside day E. closed below the last 4 days....some systems go short on such a sign So....we have about 5 indications that today's action was bearish and chances are good it will continue at e lleast tomorrow. it was below a 1-1 trend line There is another argument....remember fibo when we discussed monthly ranges? y we said that we did ini the first few days of may the work of many months. amos your point e . . .cm causing shorts to come out of woodwork with cheap supply for him to buy? Then you mentioned 1988 when May was about 1.5 times of April. If this is not a repeat of 1988--then we have already done a month's work in the first week of May..so if the market rushes to the down side.. we may have not seen the LOWS of May yet. possible? Of course possible. OK. User [wes /152.173.52.212] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:24:26 EDT 2000 Let us keep open minds. may 3 may b the seasonal high always hi wes So we have about 6 reasons for bearishness after today's action. hi folks hi wes Let us now reverse and make a few arguments for the bullish case.. who goes first tren is up in all time frames trend new high made on the weekly continuatiion chart last week held at support of 241 volume really is about the same as accumulation,..before the latest run up? last weeks volume was large it is coming back to creeks on weekly is making higher highs and higher lows very good....eric's point is moot, because the fact that 241 held today is not clear.... the way User [lavona /207.50.1.175] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:27:31 EDT 2000 hi lavona the market closed, today's low is likely to be taken out, maybe by only 1-2 centsw, but it is not safe to bet Hi fibo agains such a weak close. So, let me summarize, if I remember discussing corn lavona 1. Weekly chart is bullish 2. trend is up 3. Today's action is still inside last week's range I mean the downtrend volume is about the same as the volume during accumlation,..before the 5/01 run up what else? we are in an important creek area of support... overall volume lower on down move from the high monthly chart is bullish.... However, if we look at the weekly chart, and we want the market to maintain a buliish posture, we need a higher high and higher low on the weekly chart and there is space until the 235 1/4 area.... So we have now in front of us two sets of arguments...one bearish , one bullish... nnow we go on.... Since we cannot and SHOULD not guess what the market will do....let us use the "WHAT-IF" paradigm to make a few semi intelligent statements... What if this happpens tomorrow, or what if that/...happens tomorrow... IF to morrow is a lower low , lower high...what are we to deduce? minor down trend more down probably test 232 it will depend on the close! it it drops another 6 points it will be @ super support I mean strong if we have a clear shortening of the down word thrust...then we know that brb supply is being met with demand. if we have a reversal...it will depend on the amount of the reversal and if we close much lower...we know there is a problem..... lmarsh, we have super support IF the trend is indeed up.... I can see several scenarios: 1. the weekly chart stays bullish and we do not penetrate the 235 1/4... 2. The weekly chart will have a spring...taking out that low by a little, makeing a bear trap and shooting to the upside 3. The market staying here for w while... not going lower, but tiring longs thru the month of may 4. the market breaking and we go to contract lows. I have to admit that based on the crb, the way it held today--I am bullish...but I want to keep an open mind to all the possibilities. Is this ok with you folks? y y yassir absolutely necessary i think amos y Now the question is what should be the tactic in each case.... y So far we analyze and that has nothing with making money....what you do with this analyisis is more important. Here is my view--If we see this week that the market is holding the bullish weekly chart---we know that this action is a washout , or another "terminal" shakeout... (when you have more than one "terminal" something.. your language begins to be vague) But if this is a shakeout--and we are into real planting season---then it can be very bullish. It is possible that the CM knows some very bullish things and he is in a hurry to scare all of us to not dare be too bullish. If this action today, is a washout--I would say that this is really bullish and we are going to see 3.50 corn thi9s year. the public is natural bulls Yes, frank, so if this is to scare the public,, it is bullish. amos are you referring to a July corn weekly as well as weekly continuation? both look good Unfortunately, fibo, I am looking at the crummy eSignal and these schmucks do not have continuation charts....so I have to construct them in my imagination. you are right..this is not good enough.... oh o.k. What do you see different on the continuation chart? please share creek at 231.75 yes and may closed at 232 3/4---real close! support at 222.50..the low of week 4-14 233.1/4, 232 3/4 was the low the may contract goes off the board on Friday then Jul. will be on the weekly. as of now there are 8 cents difference what is a continuation chart? This is a very important point. You see folks, in order to really do good work you have to glean information from many charts...you really have to have the whole scene spread in front of you--you have to look at the weekly continuation chart trend line comes in at around 230 this week the whole map of the Cromosome called corn---and we are usually looking at only part of the daily price action integrated into a continuous chart Frank whole picture...many times the truth hides in another chart...but sil==such is life got the 230 point on trendlne \ User [Jeff Z.] left forum at Mon May 08 13:48:16 EDT 2000 At anay rate, tmw's action should be watched for clues as to which is the CM real intention. creek at 233.25 area also -> did you see answer I am not saying that it will be very clear by tomorrow..but it should give us a good clue. -> that continuation chart yes goes to the right with trend lines? The same analysis should be done with the beans, wheat, meal and oil--and I am sure on of these charts will give an "AHA" experiecne..... The action in the CRB index was rather bullish. User [gary fullett /172.138.196.198] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:50:46 EDT 2000 -> Frank when May expires it will be integrated with July then July will integrate with the nexrt contract and so on hello gary But I can see the grains holding here for a few more days--just to really frustrate the longs. good evening hi hi gary hi I am half way thru to graduating that's good may I ask what the topisc is? This is what pht is==putting hubby thru school good instruction tonight gary on corn corn great what was said on it breifly? that it can be either bullish or bearish User [wes /172.145.120.129] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:52:47 EDT 2000 hi wes hi gary wb wes importance of using charts in all time frames thanks fibo & what if scenarios(spell) -> ok you see I have been drawing gann trend lines 1-1, 1-2, and 2-3 to the right on my hand made charts, great -> gives a really interesting picture I think they grains will probably finish the week strong maybe some weakness early tomorrow -> understand Frank k why do you think that gary? looks like the crb will be coming into day support tomorrow I think the market will puull back 3-5 days tomorrow bing the third day looks like the 238-242 area in july corn will hold here beans at the 550 area amos and fibo your thoughts on the grains here? -> larry I sent you an e-mail tonight did you receive it can u see me or am I invisisble? the most crucial point for me is last week's lows.in july beans it is 545.5... icu so I will watch the market action around these points carefullty. agree amos If we see support there-you must pounce on these markets and buy them with both hands with a -> Yes, thanks . I ordered the "reminiseanc(spell)of stock"book today! User [Jimbo /63.24.243.20] joined forum at Mon May 08 13:58:34 EDT 2000 really close stop. should nt they hold above this low? -> looking forward to gettin it -> you won't regret it read it several times yes, and they should have a small trading range around them and if there is a G-d...they -> hard word to spell should have a nice 30, 60 minutes selling climax with an intraday Ar and a secondary test and a nice entry point.... -> I gotta get my termingalogy straight,...i was calling creek support. got too many round & square pegs to put in :^) -> but i'm getting it : ^ ) I totallly agree amos is this a guar-on-tee? :-) -> lol I think that earl may be weak but the lows for the week could be tomorrrow it is a wish...I have three coins and a fountain (guarantee) lol User [Jimbo] left forum at Mon May 08 14:01:23 EDT 2000 User [Jimbo /63.24.243.20] joined forum at Mon May 08 14:01:42 EDT 2000 Let me throw a curve ball at you folks....I do not talk about cycles here but a 23 week cycle in beans is coming in a week and a half... I really donrt see alot in markets now I think the grains need to be watched with the cr this must be a powerful additio0n to the analysis,,,,if this cycle works is is supposed to be a hi or a low amos? is it -> Gotta go but I'll try to call in AM Look at the weekly chart--a clear low. o.k. -> yes sir please call Gary, you do not see a lot, can you an Abraham? User [Jimbo] left forum at Mon May 08 14:03:33 EDT 2000 :) (they were cousines and they split, one went to Sodom and Gomorah--the other to Canaan) are we in bible class? Lot got his wife turning into a pillar of salt...Frank! -> are still long the grains in here? y i wonder if she snored:-) morton salt :) you got it fibo, I see you a Bible scholar too. -> i have corn calls -> great -> didnt know u likd options:) helps me sleep -> also have some wheat calls I thi nk a amrket to watch is the austrailian dollar salt adds some pepper into life too they are reteting the lows could be interesting. -> we trade both futures and options just grab ahold and the vibrations send me too dreamland -> wheat calls so u can turninto bread huh? lol@Frank any other mrkets intique u amos here? -> lol! yes.. You see, from a numerical point of vies--we had 21 weeks rally in the beans, but we have a 23 week cycle--so who will win?