User [gary fullett /172.129.5.47] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 12:58:25 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi gary
<gary fullett> good evening
<eric> so far so good
<gary fullett> sorry Im late
<eric> hi gary
User [Jimbo /63.24.241.71] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 12:59:10 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> how is everyone tonight
<mrj> hi Jimbo
<Jimbo> eve all
<gary fullett> markets have been kinda rough
<gary fullett> hey jimbo
<mrj> :)
<Jimbo> hey gary, mrj
<eric> hi jimbo
<Jimbo> hi eric
User [amos /62.0.146.95] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:00:32 EDT 2000
<Jimbo> light crowd tonight huh?
<gary fullett> did anyone have a tough time getting on tonight?
<mrj> hi amos
<mrj> n
<eric> no
<Jimbo> n
<gary fullett> yep thursday people are worn out
<gary fullett> and have brrn coming fashionably late
<gary fullett> does anyone have any questions?
<gary fullett> hmmm with these type of markets I thought we all had questions :)
<gary fullett> I think  markets are close to making some large moves
<gary fullett> the curriencies should be eatched at these levels
<gary fullett> as I was looking at charts
<gary fullett> i think the dow will stay in a range
<gary fullett> between now and  November time
<gary fullett> so it will be interesting to see if commodities will do the same
<gary fullett> tomorrow is delivery in the grains
<gary fullett> it was interesting to see them break yesterday and today  before delievery
<gary fullett> since we are a small  class tonight
<gary fullett> does anyone have any topics they would like to discuss?
<mrj> would you consider today's action in wheat somewhat climatic
<gary fullett> that is a good question
<gary fullett> by the close I would say no
<gary fullett> but sometimes a selling cliamx can happen in 2 days
<gary fullett> I mentioned as well as amos
<gary fullett> that the market can have a shake out in the grains before May
<gary fullett> and this seems to be happening
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:07:53 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> so with regards to wheat
<mrj> hi dave
<gary fullett> it is weak but
User [gtb /216.228.36.205] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:08:03 EDT 2000
<davep> hi mr j<Enter Text Here>
<gary fullett> if tomorow it has a strong close it could be cliamctic
<mrj> k
<gary fullett> amos do you have a commment on wheat?
<davep> hi everyone, sorry i'm so late
<gary fullett> no prob dave
<gary fullett> a few poeple emialed me and they could nt make it tonight
<gary fullett> so we are a small group today  and I was late as well
<eric> could you explain different type of springs, ie. type 1 , 2, and 3
<gary fullett> amos wheat commnet?
<amos> new contract lows in both may and july
<amos> it is either going to be some
<amos> sort of spring--or the weakness is to continue.
<amos> Historically wheat bottoms in July--so we may have to linger here
User [sal /216.192.247.52] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:10:51 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi sal
<sal> hi all
<amos> until the july contract washes out exhuberant longs too.
<amos> Need patience.
<gary fullett> is there a reason that wheat tends to do this>?
<amos> I think it has to do wiht old/new crops--but that is the seasonality of wheat
<gary fullett> why histriacally in July?
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment in grains in general?
<amos> I have a comment, or 7 comments on trends, tendencies, not guessing, 55 days and others,
<amos> but not specific to grains. Except that nov beans sit on a trendline as of tonite.
<gary fullett>-><gtb> grover if u have any comments please go right ahead amos has been studying wycoff22 yrs
<gary fullett> well can u commnet on what u see?
<gtb> my question:  what do we know about volume today?
<gary fullett> where gtb?
<gtb> wheat
<gary fullett> volume was pretty heavy today
<amos> you can get estimated vol from CBOT by 5 p.m. cst, I think
<gtb> thanks
<gtb> does heavy volume mean another mark down?
<mrj> 
<amos> either mark down or climax
<eric> 
<amos> if you want I will post here the 7 comments I have for tonite and then you can choose which one you want to elaborate on
<eric> please
<Jimbo> y
<gtb> go ahead
<amos> 1) do not guess (unless with a very close stop) no matter how tempting it is
<davep> 
<amos> 2) markets have a tendency to finihs each time frame in the direction they spent most of the time in that time frame
<amos> 3) no correlation between bonds, commodities, equities!
<amos> 4) Market has patience even at points where it is VERY CLEAR. CRB, GOLD, COfee
<amos> 5) Commodities should rally in May, despite todays weak action
<amos> 6) Selling climax is not somthing we should predict , but follow
<amos> 7) Gold had 55 days since the high made recently--should be bought.
<amos> 8) the cm tends to paint pictures that will make it more difficult for smart traders to enter in
<amos> direction of the correct trend.
<amos> 9) I just gave birth to a 9 pound gorilla
<gary fullett> :)
<mrj> 9
<gtb> I'll pray for u!
<gary fullett> very good points
<gary fullett> does everyone indersatnd what amos is saying?
<eric> Colud you elaborate 2) and 7)?
<sal> 
<amos> You picked 2 good ones eric.
<amos> I said to watch the monthly charts for the next 2-3 days.
<amos> If you look at bonds, cocoa, crb monthly charts--you see that they are close to one end of the bar.
<amos> Regardless of the particular trend--if a time frame is what is called "a trend bar"...Linda calls
<amos> it a trend day... then the market will close that month at the extreme.
<amos> Why? first there are enough weak hands to bail out
<amos> second, if the picture creates a certain bias for many chartists around the globe--and the cm
<amos> knows that after such a weak, or strong bar--it will be difficult to join in the other direction--then--maipulation is made easier.
<amos> Market have momentum... professional traders will continue to go the direction of the immeidate trend
<amos> until proven otherwise...it has made them money in the past and they are not going to change
<amos> their modus operendi.
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.196] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:26:28 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi marsh
<amos> The close of the month--ends a minor scene. and those markets that are very close to one end of the bar--no matter what
<lmarsh> hello mr J, hello everyone
<davep> hi lmarsh
<amos> the next higher timeframe is saying!!!!--it will finish in that area. Then On monday we start a new story.
<amos> It is hard to believe--but it has nothig to do with Wyckoff--only with market anomalies and habits.
<lmarsh>-><mrj> mrJ , what's the topic?
<mrj>-><lmarsh> time frames
<lmarsh>-><mrj> k, thanks
<amos> Do not try to fend, buck a market if it is in a "trend day" even tho it may completely revers the next day.
<sal> brb
User [sal] left forum at Thu Apr 27 13:28:48 EDT 2000
<amos> Look the dow 2 days ago--went straight up--then reversed.
<amos> Point 7 has to do with fibo.
<amos> She is not here to nite--but markets do have tendencies to reverse at fibonacci numbers.
<gary fullett> why is that?
<amos> 13, 21 and 55 days have curious tendencies to finish a swing trend.
<eric> calendar days or trading days?
<amos> It has some meaning as they represent 21 days out of 22 days of month . I am not sure why 55 is so significant--but
<amos> I guess it has enough time to kill all the stubborn traders that hold to the opposite view--and most human beings
<amos> cannot stay more than 55 days in Peking.
<amos> Gold had 55 days on wednesday.
<amos> If it gives a daily thrust--shoud be bought with stop at 276.10.
<amos> June contract)
<gary fullett> that is above recent highs?
<amos> ? Gary
User [fibo /204.119.225.158] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:32:48 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I apologize
<gary fullett> iI was 10 bucks off
<amos> now she appears :)
<fibo> hi everyone
<eric> hi figo
<gary fullett> the market closed 27840
<lmarsh> :  )
<amos> fibo--did you notice 55 days in gold?
<davep> hi fibo
<lmarsh> HI Fibo
<gary fullett> fibo ... amos was talking about the fibonacci numbers as related to commodities
<gary fullett> 13 21 55
<gary fullett> can u coment?
<fibo> yes they all work
<gary fullett> I undersatnd that
<fibo> more so in price than in time
<gary fullett> but is there a reaso why they are significant?
<gary fullett> can u explain?
<fibo> 3 of the largest dow drops have been on 55 or 56 days
<gary fullett> but that is time not price
<fibo> yes 
<gary fullett> what do u mean more in price than time
<davep> fibo, count is measured in trading days, not calendar days, correct?
<amos> I said, fibo , that gold had 55 days from the recent top on Wednesday--if we get a daily thrust--i want
<fibo> in corn it may go up any of the fib. ratios..8 cents, 13 cents,,etc.
<amos> to be long with stop at 276.10 what do you think?
<fibo> just a sec
<gary fullett> k thnax
<fibo> i have a number at 275 
<mrj> 
<eric> 
User [Jimbo /63.24.241.71] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:37:52 EDT 2000
<fibo> so that be another signal beside the 55 day
<amos> miles from Vegas?
<amos> (275)
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> 275?
<amos> fibo, I have noticed that prolonged reaction or rallies--especially if coming to rest agains important creeks, or other
<amos> support/resistance levels--tend to signal the anticipated reversal--do you agree?
<amos> I mean after 55 days.
<fibo> sure
<amos> I win  I win  I win
<lmarsh> :  )
<gary fullett> can u give examples of this?
<amos> The most important point, tho , is to get an entry signal  first, not to guess.
<fibo> when it gets to the price target..i look & see if there is a creek, ice line, a fib. retracement, Wyckoff, along with the price target
<fibo> right amos
<amos> Well, Gary, if Gold made a significant low on  Wednesday at 276.30 or so--and it rallies back to the 290 area..
User [gtb /216.228.36.205] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:41:50 EDT 2000
<amos> then thsi was a good example of the influence of the 55 days reaction
<fibo> on the dec. corn chart there was a price target just over 264.25
<fibo> there was also an old hi (& creek) at 265. prices went down from there
<gary fullett> where would u buy gold?
<fibo> i believe it was also a retracement
<amos> on any 60 min, or daily thrust
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> so in corn the postion should be flat here?
<gary fullett> or long?
<fibo> technically should be short from that area.  
<fibo> and should have got out of longs there
<gary fullett> where would u renter corn?
<amos> as long as 222 holds on the monthly continuation chart--corn is long
<amos> 220 is better.
<fibo> the 248.50 on dec. corn daily was a target 
<amos> (two months low)
<gary fullett> that would be based on may corn prices now
<amos> Continuation charts are based on front month--"cash" . yes.
<fibo> may goes off the board on May 12th
<amos> Despite what Niederhoffer says.
<amos> after may goes off the board you have july trading 12 cents higher
<gary fullett> so a buy in december corn is at the 248 area
<gary fullett> 251 now
<fibo> i am long the corn now with stop at 227.75 in Jul.
<fibo> if it takes out 248 in dec. probably don't want to be long
<fibo> unless you have deep pockets :-)
<lmarsh> yep
<amos> The trick is not the stop at 248--which is a correct stop--but to re-enter if you get a buy signal and forget the loss
<amos> of the ealier trade.
<amos> earlier
<fibo> yes amos
<amos> If 248  is a spring--it will be very bullish.
<fibo> on the fibs..the 1987 low projected to 144 and the low was 142  ..144 is a fib
<fibo> on weekly corn chart  (or monthly)
<amos>  Do not forget that the beans are already in a bullish mode. You could also see recently the meal gaining on oil
<amos> which generally is a bullish sign.
<fibo> i think it was at 233 weeks also
<amos> 233?
<fibo> a fib also  144+89
<amos> wowoo
<eric> Do you use fib extensions? 1.62...
<fibo> yes eric
<gary fullett> interesting...
<lmarsh> very
<gary fullett> so  the grains still apear bullish to you fibo?
<davep> 
<fibo> what is the square root of 987 ( which is a fib number)?
<amos> around 32 
<lmarsh> 31.4165
<fibo> pi
<fibo> now take the square root of pi
<fibo> what is it?
<lmarsh> 1.7724
<fibo> o.k. right lmarsh..now where have you seen that 177 number before?
<amos> between Barstow and Springfield
<lmarsh> oh gosh the pressure question!!!!!
<fibo> lol!!!
<mrj> bottom for corn
<fibo> hint  it is in the grain group
<gary fullett> :)
<fibo> exactly mrj
<gary fullett> what is 987?
<lmarsh> which month, on weekly???
User [Jimbo /63.24.241.71] joined forum at Thu Apr 27 13:58:08 EDT 2000
<fibo> just carry out the fib. sequence gary..it is just a fib
<gtb> .
<fibo> yes on the weekly or monthly chart
<gary fullett> k i see thanx
<fibo> that was just one way of finding the low.. my husband found it several other ways too.
<lmarsh> egads, she's right!!!!!!!
<fibo> so there was a cluster of targets in that area..
<eric> 
<gary fullett> a smart cookie
<amos> who asked last nite about a selling climax in the EUro?
<gary fullett> so r there any other markets that have atarget soon?
<davep> ime
<gary fullett> davep
<amos> what do you think to day?
<davep> wanna say island reversal but noy "W"
<amos> The lesson to be gleaned from this is that, in th e long run--it is better to wait for an AR (especially on large swings)
<fibo> wheat and beans also hit downside targets on weekly & monthly
<gary fullett> amos u mentioned sc in euro as well
<gary fullett> wheat at which level
<amos> before declaring a climax. This is the beauty of following a definition, rather than declaring it.
<fibo> when it hit it's weekly low gary
<davep> & $ index supporting
<gary fullett> k thanx
<gary fullett> so the grain trend is  up than
<gary fullett> based on weekly targest?
<fibo> there is one thing you have to do if you work off of the fibs..you have to go back & work with the 1932 low
<fibo> yes imho long term grains are up
User [Jimbo] left forum at Thu Apr 27 14:03:51 EDT 2000
<mrj> 
<lmarsh> why the 1932 low?
<amos> fibo, inho is a false modesty. I do not support this kind of hedging.
<fibo> at this time that is how it looks
<amos> imho
<fibo> it was the last major low
<fibo> lol@amos
<amos> no, I am serious, for a change (very little change)--
<amos> I think that adding the imho--is not necessary--i f you have conviction-- you should state it strongly.
<amos> The market does not like humble, or meek people--they do not inherit the earth.
<fibo> i just don't want other people to loose money on something i said amos..
<gary fullett> very well said fibo
<fibo> my opinion could be wrong
<gary fullett> there is Risk in all trades
<amos> When you trade you own ideas--you cannot be responsible for other losses.
<fibo> have you ever made a JIC trade?
<gary fullett> And we do our best to interpet
<fibo> amos?
<gtb> seems to me mature people take responsibility for their own decisions
<amos> If you are right more than wrong--then it is alrite to lose on a single trade/idea
<gary fullett> very true gtb
<lmarsh> JIC,...just in case?
<fibo> yes
<lmarsh> yes grb, i agree
<fibo> that is one of David's sayings.. a just in case trade which has no Wyckoff terminology whatsoever :-)
<amos> What is a JIC trade? where is your stop loss?
<amos> If you have a stop--it is exactly like ALL your trades.
<fibo> yes
<amos> and behind any statement of Just in Case...there is a certain logic because you can
<eric> 
<amos> always finsihs that sentence--just in case..this and that happens....
<fibo> He used to say that in his newsletter on occasion
<gtb> isnt a stop loss jic?
<fibo> yes sure is
<amos> We are finishing tomorrow the month of April. Was not an easy month to trade--but is is usually a wait and see month--so it was notmal.
<amos> We should watch carefully the beginning of May--It is going to be a significant month.
<davep> we need a couple more notmal months . . .
<amos> I am of the opinion that is will mark the low point for many commodities for the next several months.
<amos> based on the CRB, cycles, Many markets at deistinct definition stages. Not humble
<mrj> 
<fibo> 
<lmarsh> 
<davep> 
<amos> NOtice also that the bonds are having a buying climax month!!!!
<amos> It is not a BC of a bull phase, but of a bear market rally--that does not require the full 9 stars action.
<amos> So if we penetrate the low of april in may--bonds will continue to test the lows of jan.
<gary fullett> so not a bc in the true sense of the word
<amos> No, it is a JIC BC
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> lol
<lmarsh> :^ )
<gary fullett> JIC I thought was jesus 's name
<amos>  P S W C T W A A
<gary fullett> with i as a middle initial?
<amos> Pretty soon we can talk with acronims alone.
<gary fullett> huh amos?
<gary fullett>-><fibo> thanx for your impute
<fibo> Preliminary supply weekly corn
<gary fullett> prelimary supply or suppport?
<amos> When I first came to the states and drove across country and saw all the highway signs: LBJ; JFK; etc.
<amos> I could not undersatnd a word.
<fibo> i was just guessing at what amos initials were for gary
<amos> Even Kelly on Married with children did not know who that JIFK was.
<amos> who that JIFK was
<amos>  SSS
<fibo>-><gary fullett> your welcome gary
<mrj> good night all thanks
<amos> sorry sorry sorrry
<lmarsh> nite mrj, good luck
User [mrj] left forum at Thu Apr 27 14:20:29 EDT 2000
<davep> nite mrj
<fibo>-><gary fullett> nite mrj
<amos> Tuesday, we should again discuss the monthly charts, Gary with the hindsite of how April looked
<fibo> k
<amos> on many commodities and try to say a few intelligent things
<lmarsh> sounds good
<eric> great
<fibo> when my husband speaks it is always intelligent :-) hehehe
<gary fullett> sounds good to me
<amos> Monday is an open day on Linda rashcke site--if you can log on and spend a few minutes.hours to see a preofessional
<amos> at work--by all means!!
<gary fullett> our husband is a smart man
<gary fullett> when is it amos?
<gary fullett> what time?
<gtb> Gary...do any of you use p&f charts in addition?
<gary fullett> yes P and f must be used
<amos> every first of the month she has an open house, sort of, you cannot talk-but watch
<fibo> he has just worked at it for lots of years.  he was just kidding amos :-)
<lmarsh> thanks for the notice amos, will try to attend
<davep> amos & gary, re June Euro, stand aside but buy jump over creek > .94 or can we call it a j o c? 
<fibo> nite all
<gary fullett> market need to accumalte b4 the JOC
<fibo> thanks amos & gary
<gary fullett> night fibo thanx
<davep> nite fibo
<lmarsh> nite fibo, thanks
User [fibo] left forum at Thu Apr 27 14:24:29 EDT 2000
<amos> davep--- joc does not occur immediately after a selling climax. need time and range,.
<amos> nite fibo and hubby
<amos> dodes any one knows what a Jewish Ph.D is?
<lmarsh> a doctor???
<davep> redundant! :-)
<amos> Pappa Has Dough
<gtb> lol
<lmarsh> lol
<eric> lol
<gary fullett> lol
<gary fullett> ell I need to walk the dog and hit the sack I will see u all monday
<gary fullett> have a great weekend all
<gary fullett> good night
<eric> gn gary
User [gary fullett] left forum at Thu Apr 27 14:27:28 EDT 2000