User [gary /171.217.70.244] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 19:06:14 EDT 2000
<Peggy> how many markets do you watch? all of them like Amos says?
<Peggy> hi, Gary
<gary> good evening
<Jack> I try to watch the ones I can afford to trade
<Peggy> me, too
<Peggy> any charts tonight, Gary?
<gary> no just the ones from last night
<Peggy> July corn today went up and came down
<Jack> I thought it was going to 
<gary> yes within a range as I mentioned yesterda
<Peggy> hit the 240 resistance, big down. I was excited at first, then not
<gary> I think the grains will rally in may
<gary> may beans need to get above the 550 area
User [shannon /171.219.131.223] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 19:10:27 EDT 2000
<gary> and july corn really above the 248 level
<gary> hi shannon
<Peggy> is that 10 cent range too small to play on the way down?
<shannon> hi ya'all
<gary> no not really
<Peggy> hi Shannon
<Jack> hi shannon
<gary> may grains go into deliavery on friday
<Peggy> I have been trying to force myself to papertrade and see how I do. It is easy to forego it
<gary> so I think mid may they will head higher as a group
<Peggy> so July will be the front month on Friday?
<gary> no emotions with paper trading
<gary> it is the lead month now
<Peggy> no $$ either
<gary> :)
<gary> In mid appril july became the lead month
<gary> any questions?
<Jack> n
<Peggy> yes
<gary> since we are a small group tonight
<gary> is there anything that you would like me to discusss orclear up?
<Peggy> When you say price must have large range w large volume, what
<Peggy> constitutes "a large price range"? Is to dependent
<Peggy> on the commodity?
<gary> yes
<shannon> 
<gary> peggy
<gary> becasue a 10 cent move in corn is differnet than a 10 cent move in beans
<gary> it is like a 10 dollar stock moving up 10 dollars
<gary> and a 100 stock moving up 10 dollars
<gary> do u see the diffrence
<gary> volume is like that as well
<Peggy> yes, but if how do I judge each commodity's price range?
<gary> ah
<Peggy> do I look at history
<Peggy> on rallies?
<gary> that is dependent on the area that it is trading in
<gary> yes history
<Peggy> right, a range is different
<Peggy> trading range
<gary> previous month weeks day before
<gary> sometimes a commodity will will trade in 10 cent ranges
<gary> wth volume of 10k
<gary> then a few months later
User [Sherry /166.72.174.9] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 19:17:42 EDT 2000
<gary> the range maybe be 20 cents with volume of 17 k
<gary> hi sherri
<Peggy> hi, Sherry
<shannon> hi sherry
<Jack> hi sherry
<gary> oops wrong sp
<gary> sorry
<Sherry> Hi Gary and all, sorry I'm late
<gary> so u need to look at the range price action volume within the area and time that it is trading within
<gary> u r excused :)
<gary> just a caussal chat tonight
<gary> if u want to know about the dow
<gary> the 8pm class amos and I will be discussing it
<gary> does that help peggy?
<Peggy> well, sort of
<Jack> 
<gary> okay.. how can I help explain more
<gary> u have to judge
<gary> the markets action and volume with a certain time frame
<gary> or area
<gary> corn could have been trading
<gary> 80 k volume last yr
<gary> but 5 k now
<gary> they arent compareable
<gary> becaue 5 k maybe the norm now
<gary> and 80 k may have been the norm then
<gary> corn at 5 dollars will trade different than corn at 2 bucks
<gary> do u see the volitity in the stock market these days?
<Jack> y
<Peggy> nope
<gary> 15 yrs ago it asnt like this so u cant compare
<gary> volume is 1 billion shares
<gary> 10 yrs ago it was 100 million
<gary> so u cant compare 
<Peggy> very different
<gary> the ranges and volume are larger now
<gary> that is how u need to look at commodities at differnt times and areas
<gary> does that help?
<Peggy> yes, thanks
<gary> great
<gary> I didnt want to leave u in the dark :)
<gary> any other questions?>
<gary> I want to share some floor trading experiences with u
<gary> if u dont mind 
<Jack> great
<gary> it will help u undersatnd markets
<gary> since we are a small class 
<shannon> 
<gary> i think u will get alot out of this
<gary> if that is okay with all of u
<Peggy> y
<Sherry> yes
<Jack> just fine
<shannon> k
<gary> great
<gary> as u may know I am a former floor trader at the chicago mercantile exchange
<gary> in the s and P 500 pit
<gary> I was in the pit for the 87 crash
<Peggy> does that mean you had a seat?
<gary> my claim to fame :)
<gary> yes
<gary> actually i stood :)
<Peggy> :)
<gary> not sitting
<gary> so the floor is all emotion
<gary> but u learn alot by watching traders
<gary> does anyone know how the opening range is determined?
<Jack> no
<shannon> n
<Peggy> n
<Sherry> n
<Peggy> pivot points?
<gary> okay
<gary> I will explain
<gary> it is important
<gary> about 10 minutes before a market opens
<gary> most traders are in the pit
<gary> they jockey for position
<Peggy> what does that mean?
<gary> usually everyone has an area that they go to based on where they can trader more easily
<gary> did u ever see the pit on tv?
<Peggy> n
<Jack> y
<Sherry> y
<gary> well it is circular
<gary> and crowded
<Sherry> and noisy
<gary> everone gets a small pice of real estate
<gary> yep
<shannon> where everyone is yelling with thier arms in the air?
<gary> so u need elbow room
<gary> yes..
<gary> when the palms are towrds their face they are buyers
<gary> palms away from their face they are sellers
<gary> all bids and offers in the pit
<gary> are called immedite acceptance orders
<gary> in order words
<gary> when a pit trader bids a price
<gary> he or she 
<Sherry> 
<Jack> 
<shannon> 
<Peggy> 
<gary> and someone else
<gary> offers or is willing to sell
<gary> bid means he wants to buy
<gary> offer menas he wants to sell
<gary> okay so far
<Jack> y
<Peggy> so far
<shannon> y
<Sherry> y
<Jack> is this still about opening range
<gary> yes
<gary> but I am getting to that part
<Jack> ok
<gary> I just wanted to explain bid and offers
<gary> so up until the opening range traders and firms
<gary> bid and offer 
<gary> price and amount of contracts to bid and offer
<gary> but since the market isnt open yet
<gary> it means little
<gary> because they can withdraw these bids and offers up until
<gary> the opening bell
<gary> once the bell rings 
<gary> bids and offers can be accepted and trading begins
<gary> u as a clients
<gary> can bid under the market
<gary> say corn is at 230 
<gary> u can bid
<gary> 228
<gary> and wait for your price right>?
<Jack> y
<Peggy> y
<gary> the pit trader cant do that
<gary> he must bid and offer
<gary> where the market is trading at
<gary> do u undersatnd this
<Jack> y
<Peggy> y
<Sherry> y
<shannon> 
<gary> great
<gary> so lets say that news came out before the opening
<gary> and that a market will open lower
<gary> it is the bids offers that will determine that price 
<Peggy> the pre bid/offers?
<gary> where buyers meet sellers
User [shannon /171.219.131.223] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 19:43:14 EDT 2000
<Jack> 
<Sherry> so draw a line?
<gary> the prebid offers that are bid offer when the market opens
<gary> is the opening prices
<Peggy> that sounds rigged almost
<gary> but bid offers can be withdrawn before the opening
<gary> a line?
<gary> what do u mean rigged?
<Peggy> unfair
<Sherry> a line where buyers meet sellers
<gary> righti see
<gary> why unfair/>
<Jack> 
<gary> I know what u menat by rigged how do u think so
<Peggy> the market hasn't opened but they are bidding already
<gary> they are trying to determine
<Peggy> but I guess they are including my bid/offer also, huh?
<gary> if u buy on the opening yes
<gary> actaully it is fair
<gary> lets say
<gary> that a report comes out bullish for corn before the opening
<gary> and corn closed at 230 yesterday
<gary> I would love to buy at 230
<shannon> 
<gary> but I know that I will have to pay more than that
<gary> but with bullish news I cant
<gary> so i will bid
<gary> as high as I think the market go
<gary> and I need to wait for someone to sell it to me
<gary> let say I bid 234
<gary> and no one is going to sel to me
<gary> so I must bid higher right
<gary> to meet that seller
<gary> right
<Sherry> y
<shannon> y
<gary> that is why markets gap
<gary> so buyers meet sellers
<Jack> 
<gary> if I want to buy I must buy from a seller
<gary> i never like to put oirders in on the opening for clients
<Jack> how long does opening range last?
<gary> becasue u never know where u will get filled
<gary> 30 seconds to a minute usually depends on the market
<Jack> ok
<gary> any question son hosw the opening range is determined?
<Jack> n
<gary> great make sense?
<Peggy> n
<Peggy> yes, makessense
<shannon> 
<Sherry> the cm then will do what?
<gary> ah
<gary> very good 
<gary> yes 
<Peggy> or has he already done it?
<Peggy> in the pre-bell nego's
<gary> very good
<gary> what he does is that he uses differnt brokers
<gary> and he uses some to sell pre offers
<gary> and some to buy pre bid
<gary> and he see what the others are doing then he withdrawls
<shannon> 
<Peggy> the on-balance stuff
<gary> efore the opening
<gary> yep
<gary> he is testing the market
<gary> do u undersatnd
<Jack> y
<gary> not many people know this
<Peggy> great strategy!!!
<gary> he does this in the opits too all the time
<gary> he bids in the pit buys 50 and uses another broker to sell 100
<gary> on balance short 50 
<gary> he always tests the markets
<gary> hat do u think 
<gary> what
<gary> trading ranges are
<gary> he is testing support and resisatnces
<shannon> 
<gary> on a daily weekly or monthly basis here
<Jack> 
<gary> but on openings he is testing the days action
<gary> cleaver huh/
<Jack> very
<gary> now that I told u ... u all owe me 10 bucks
<Peggy> can I email to you!!
<Jack> bill me
<shannon> its in the mail
<gary> emails will be accepted
<Peggy> so, for trading purposes, what can I take away to apply to my trading, regarding opening ranges
<gary> no real money
<gary> :)
<gary> buy support in a range sell resisatnce
<Sherry> thanks so much 
<gary> remeber what I mntioend last night that the grains were at the top of its ranges
<gary> the market in beans went down today
<Peggy> right
<gary> so sell resisatnce like the cm
<gary> buy support
<Jack> ok
<gary> I want to say one more thing
<gary> I hoppe this helps u trade
<gary> tell this to your broker he will think u r a genius
<gary> now
<gary> why is the opening range important
<gary> because i mentioned
<gary> that the
<gary> pre bids
<gary> and pre offers
<gary> when then are not withdrawn
<gary> will determine
<gary> the opening prices
<gary> thsi is where the equalibrium is at
User [mrj /206.251.171.105] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:03:08 EDT 2000
<gary> so u can use the opening range as your pivot
<mrj> hi everyone
<gary> buy above it
<Jack> hello
<gary> and sell under the opening range
<Sherry> hi mrj
<Peggy> hi, mrj
<shannon> hi
<gary> that is what pit traders do and if u are
<gary> a day trader this is important to day trade
User [Lavona /207.50.1.168] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:03:57 EDT 2000
User [amos /62.0.147.100] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:04:05 EDT 2000
<gary> I have a homework assiagnment
User [SteveF /209.214.197.174] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:04:13 EDT 2000
<gary> watch the opening of all markets tomorrow
<gary> I think u willl see that baout 80 percent of them
<gary> the opening range will be the high or the low of the day !!!!!
User [fibo /206.104.30.154] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:04:59 EDT 2000
<gary> that is my last point
<fibo> hello everyone
<gary> it is what I saw from my pit trading days
<gary> hi fibo
<Jack> hi
<mrj> hi lavona, amos, steve, & fibo
<gary> any questions about the openingd?
<Peggy> n
<Lavona> Hello everyone
<Jack> n
<SteveF> Howdy Folks!
<Lavona> n
<gary> did this help or did I waste your time?
<Sherry> n
<Jack> very good
<Peggy> no, interesting. Can public go watch?
User [Frank /207.230.57.87] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:06:11 EDT 2000
<mrj> hey frank
<fibo> hi Frank
<gary> come to chicago and I will take u to the floor
<gary> to the opitd
<Peggy> you're on
<Lavona> hi F
<Frank> 0hi mr j fibo lavona 
User [eric /206.98.11.159] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:07:30 EDT 2000
<fibo> hi eric
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:07:40 EDT 2000
<gary> anyone who comes to chicago I will take to the trading floor
<fibo> hi davep
<eric> hi fibo and everyone
<davep> hi fibo<Enter Text Here>
<davep> 'evening everone
<mrj> hi eric dave
<gary> are there any more questions
<Jack> n
<gary> aout the what I talked about in the beginners class
User [Jeff Z. /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:08:59 EDT 2000
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.166] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:09:07 EDT 2000
User [Jack] left forum at Wed Apr 26 20:09:10 EDT 2000
<fibo> hi jeff hi lmarsh
<gary> good evening everyone
<mrj> hi jeff marsh 
<lmarsh> hello all
<davep> hi lmarsh, jeff
<gary> any questions before I begin
<Frank> 
<SteveF> n
<gary> I went over an interesting idea
<gary> in the last class
<fibo> what was it?
User [Jeff /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:12:01 EDT 2000
<Peggy> I thought the wheat discussion was interesting
<Jeff> Good Evening All
<mrj> hi jeff
<fibo> hi jeff
<Peggy> hi jeff
<davep> hi jeff
<lmarsh> hi jeff z
<lmarsh> what was the interesting idea gary?
<amos> 
<gary> opening ranges do u know how they are determine
<gary> what makes the opening prices
<davep> locals decide how & where to trade against incoming orders?
<lmarsh> bids, i suppose?
<gary> not just locals
<gary> but insittuitions
<SteveF> open outcry just before open of first buyers and sellers?
<gary> there is a jockeying for postion
<Frank> 
<mrj> 
<gary> right but there is a pre bid
<gary> and pre offer before the opening
<Frank> institutions?
<gary> this is a testing of where buyers and sellers will meet
<gary> yes Goldman sachs
<gary> and others
<gary> the large traders will use several borkers
<eric> 
<Frank> open hi lo and the first price?
<gary> and they will see where the marjet is
<gary> I mentioned that the opening range
<gary> is like a pivot
<gary> traders will buy baobe the opening
<Frank> below?
<gary> and sell under the opening range
<gary> so if the opeing id 230 in corn
<gary> above 23o
<gary> pit traders buy
<gary> and under it they sell
<Sherry> 
<amos> 
<gary> but I think u all understand the mechanics
<Frank> 
<lmarsh> the "pivot" numbers. Are they derived from the Open/High/Low/close of the preceding day?
<mrj> 
<Lavona> 
<fibo> 
<gary> some people will use those number for the next day trades
<lmarsh> k, been looking @ em, not much sucsess in using in testing yet. thanks
<gary> it depends on your style
User [sal /216.192.252.38] joined forum at Wed Apr 26 20:25:18 EDT 2000
<gary> but if u watch theopening range
<fibo> hi sal
<mrj> hi sal
<davep> hi sal
<lmarsh> i drive a 76' GMC, my daughter says I have no style! : )
<lmarsh> hi sal
<sal> sorry i'm late ...helping husband with golf game (sheepish grin)
<mrj> :)
<fibo> sure sal:-)
<gary> it will generally be the high or low of the day
<eric> 
<fibo> lol@lmarsh
<gary> any quedtions?
<Frank> but u got substance marsh
<gary> the dow jones is interesting now
<gary> and I would like amos to comment on it
<gary> amos if u dont mind
<amos> The equity markets
<amos> are being watched these days
<amos> rather intensively around the world.
<amos> If you opened a daily newpaper anywhere
<amos> around the globe--you see many days that the front page is
<amos> quoting the nasdaq 13% here and 6% here.
<amos> People who have no idea what stocks are--are getting
<amos> to learn about the U.S. markets via their front page.
<amos> This is interesting.
<amos> Why is the CM interested in such advertisement?
<Peggy> 
<amos> I have no idea.
<amos> I just know that when things reach
<amos> front pages of normal dailies0--it may remind us of
<amos> J.P.Morgan that was asked one day in 1929 by his shoe-shine boy--
<amos> what stocks he suggests the boy buy--and went and sold ALL his holdings.
<amos> I am not saying that Israeli major dailies (3 of them)
<SteveF> 
<amos> are akin to american shoe shine boys of 1929--but human psychology is
<amos> not much different.
<Jeff> 
<fibo> 
<lmarsh> 
<amos> So I am stueying these charts a little more in depth these days and there are some interesting
<amos> observations.
<davep> 
<amos> I think we mentioned here the quarterly charts.
<Frank> 
<amos> When a market is on a 20 year rampage--the quarterly chart is the equivalent of
<amos> a tamed pussycat.
<amos> It soothes out many noisy things.
<amos> In the last 10 years--the Dow chart had the FIRST quarterly thrust!.
<sal> 
<amos> I made a lower low.
<amos> But it closed above midpoint.
<amos> Since, as you know by now--to me a bar on a chart is nothing more than that period
<amos> battle of supply and demand where the high is supply, low is demand and close--the conclusion of that battle--
<Frank> mid point of the chart or mid point of the range?
<amos> then the way I look at the dow quarterly chart is that fallanges of supply are appearing behind dem hills.
<mrj> 
<Sherry> So are you saying cm is calling for a major correction?
<eric> 
<amos> But troops of support are still fortified (the range, Frank)
<Frank> tks
<amos> Sherry, I am just begiingin to develop my Scott Fitchgerald saga and you want to get to the end of
<amos> the story and to know what happened to Robyn hood?
<amos> Have patience and enjoy the yarn.
<Sherry> ok
<SteveF> lol
<amos> By the way this peicutre of troops of supply and demand soldiers is not my original=--it was
<amos> descrived by Jesse Livermore--not a bad man to walk in footsteps.
<amos> So the troops of support are still strong.
<amos> One quarterly bar on a 20 year chart a season does not make.
<amos> It just says that all of a sudden there is a hint of balance.
<amos> Mind you--this kind of information is not tradeable most of the time.
<amos> If you transfer this to the daily chart you have resistance at the high of the last 3 months (jan-march/200)
<amos> and support at the recent lows.
<amos> And the close near the middle--to me says--The uptrend is OVER>
<amos> What comes after an uptrend?
<amos> A range!
<amos> So the probaility is high that the next 2-3 bars--that is the next 9 months will be in a range.
<amos> A range of that magnitude is rediculous.
<Frank> distribution
<amos> But if you look back at long term charts-- you can see them.
<amos> Now if you are aware of this information and it happens to be correct and you anticipate it--what kind of level of knolwedge tardes dos it give you?
<amos> Only at the boundaries!!!
<amos> It means that if we are in the middle of a large range for several months--
<amos> markets can behave randomly!!!!
<amos> IN THE MIDDLE OF A RANGE--YOU LOK IS MINIMAL!!! 
<amos> .
<SteveF> aha
<Lavona> 
<sal> like politicians running for office, LOK minimal
<eric> 
<amos> So if you want to trade the equity futures--- please be ready to what the trade calls"Choppy"
<amos> behavior.
<amos> People use the word choppy a lot (must like celery)--and most of the time it is nonesense.
<sal> more like machete' to my account
<amos> But when you are in the middle of a range--that means when supply and demand forces are at
<amos> a minimum balance--there is NO REASON for th e market to go one way or another--so one day the
<amos> market rallies and profit are wonderful--the next day market drops because msft is going to split--bunch of garbage news that
<amos> are supposed to satisfy the average daily editor--but has nothign to do with the "truth"
<mrj> 
<amos> of the market.
<amos> So how do you solve this dilema?
<amos> any suggestion?
<Frank> day trade
<eric> sell out of money options, collect premium
<Jeff> 
<amos> according to what paradigm, Frank?
<Sherry> listen to the charts
<fibo> stay out until supply or demand appears 
<lmarsh> get to the sidlines,?
<SteveF> trade commodities
<gary> take small postions
<mrj> support and resistance
<gary> at support of the ranges
<davep> watch net capital inflows, cuz portfolio mgrs salivate to earn their %; 9 mos might give 3 qtrs pos earnings to "rescue" their buying, therefore + bias
<Frank> Taylors 3 day method, or angels lss system
<amos> such plurality of opinions-- real democracy.......
<amos> yousee that everyone has their own idea of what to do when you are in the middle of a large range...
<Frank> dont do long pull trades
<gary> very true
<amos> What I aim at is that if you need to get a better set of knowledge points--you must work a little harder.
<fibo> a good time to take a vacation is in the middle of a range
<lmarsh> play the range , when the S&R are defined?
<SteveF> wait for point of higher LOK?
<amos> Either you sit out, or you use that Taylor method, or you use certain oscillators that work better in particular ranges---
<amos> whatever you use-- as long as you understand that there are points with more information that allow
<amos> you to trade with higher LOK--and that there are points where the market is so random --that you can be
<amos> chopped to death if you are not carefull--then you are ready for the next phase.
<gary> but most markets are in ranges though
<amos> I feel that the markets are rather difficult in the last few days. NOt "rational" as some may say.
<amos> We are looking for numbers that the market simply washes aside like sand on beach.
<Frank> amen brother
<amos> --These are the times that try men's soul. Some men soles.
<gary> they have been rough the last week
<amos> If you get killed in such a phase--you are left with little stamina to trade well when conditions clarify.
<davep> amos, u asked why cm wanted so much mkt publicity; isn't it true that when & if public (editors) form consensus, we can trade against it?
<Lavona> 
<amos> does any one feel that markets are somewhat difficult in the last few days?
<gary> yes they have been
<mrj> 
<Frank> yes
<lmarsh> YES
<Lavona> very
<fibo> y
<sal> y
<SteveF> yes markets are at a period of indecision
<amos> -the reason I am talking about this is that such a phase of confusion--is manufactured by the CM and
<gary> but I think it will may will be bettre
<amos> if you learn to survive this period--you know that just around the corner are great trades that can be
<Frank> the dow has turned every ones bowels to water
<amos> easy, with rather reasonable stop losses that can make good money.
<sal> thanks for the graphic frank :(
<gary> :)
<amos> I feel (i hate this word) but it relates to market action...
<lmarsh> : ^)
<amos> that rather soon
<amos> markets will give clear signals. we need more time.
<amos> Back to the stock market.
<amos> If you look at several indicators you see great descrepency between them
<SteveF> IDN=NMT
<Sherry> 
<davep> 
<amos> The dow, s and p and nasdzq charts and russel --look quite differently.
<SteveF> IDK
<amos> Good Steve, first rule learn to spell
<SteveF> lol
<amos> the talk about hi tech versus old economy is nothing but manipulation of news.
<amos> Smart money just moves to the arena where they feel the greatest return is-- and the public
<gary> I cant spell yet
<gary> i can but I can type:)
<amos> is lead to believe--whatever the CM wants it to believe (not that the story of internet/hitech vesrsus some other companies and multiplir\ers--is incorrect)
<amos> If you have several markets, several indicators that are internally related--but show
<amos> differetn chart patterns--what are you to do?
<amos> Any suggestion?
<Frank> watch
<davep> buy the strong chart, etc
<Sherry> watch price and volumn
<fibo> trade the chart you are watching
<eric> stay aside
<amos> All are good suggestion--but here is a secret:
<Frank> watch till a couple of indicators agree
<amos> ONE OF THESE CHARTS WILL GIVE THE TRUE SIGNAL.
<SteveF> They convinced people that earnings or profits are not an important point in business..LOL
<amos> It is amazing when you study charts in retrospect you alwyas see that one of these charts
<SteveF> when they are the only point.
<amos> either had a perfect upthrust of PLSY, or a thrust of a trendline, or a double top with a low volume
<amos> test--or something.
<amos> It is withing the classical WYckoff definition of a certain behavior that you see the signal very clear.
<Frank> PLSY?
<amos> Only that you did not watch (preliminary supply)
<amos> that particular chart.
<amos> If you look at the "crash" of 1987--you see that one of those charts (I do not recall which) the low
<amos> point of Oct 19 -1987 is perfectly on a 15 years shalow uptrend line.
<amos> You will say to me--Amod--hindsight is always clear
<amos> and I will say--yes, but how many watched that particular chart at that day when the world cam e to an end?
<amos> Very few.
<Jeff> 
<lmarsh> 
<gary> 
<Frank> 
<davep> 
<fibo> 
<amos> If you are ready with all the information--on all the chartts that comprise a certain market...
<mrj> 
<Lavona> 
<eric> 
<amos> in commodities you look at 2 different concatination methods, you look at cash, you look at a sector
<amos> chart, you look at componnets of the CRB and on adn on and on...you do a credible job
<amos> of collecitng informatino--then you will be ready to perceive the place where a signal is
<amos> clearer.
<amos> Right now the 11425 is an unthrust of the Preliminary supply on the dow jones chart.
<amos> The same price on the S&P is (I forgot at the momjent, looked at it this afternoon and did
<amos> not write down)
<amos> If todays decline in teh market was a response to these significant levels--then we are at
<amos> an important juncture right here.
<amos> The crb dropped today--the 213.30 on the june CRB is very significant for the next 2-5 days.
<amos> A thrust above it--will start a substantial rally in commodities.
<gary> 
<amos> I just studied the crude chart--it srpung an important weekly uptrendline--so we may be on the way to
<amos> test the highs of that market.
<amos> Coffee gave a potential signal. Gold and silver are accelerating their washout--which may signal that
<gary> do u think crude had a bc
<amos> the CM in these markets is in a hurry.
<gary> and this will be a retest for distribution
<amos> --we are facing very interesting points in many markets right here and now.
<Frank> Strong demand droped out of about all the grains about 1330 est today
<amos> I think crude finishe a long AR and is about to test the highs
<gary> so u are friendly crude?
<amos> Frank, if you use your terminology today was a short sale day in the beans which
<amos> means that tomorrow is a buy day. not?
<Frank> just crude and friendly
<SteveF> :)
<gary> beans tested the top of the range
<Lavona> :)
<mrj> ;0
<mrj> 
<amos> I do not like to talk about the Taylor trading method--even tho I studied it for many years
<SteveF> was that a quote from waynes world? lol
<mrj> lol
<amos> and it has quite a merit (especially since he was a closet Wyckoffian)
<Sherry> 
<fibo> 
<amos> Are we stoopin g to Beevus and Butthead?
<Frank> gann talks about the same cycle
<SteveF> :)
<gary> :0
<gary> ;)
<sal> 
<amos> Markets behavior as we see in the last few days--is very informational to professional traders--
<davep> 
<davep> 
<amos> they can sense a certain urge in irrationality--today the commodities dropped, the bonds dropped and the stock market dropped.
<amos> For a "rational
<amos> person this is anatheous,
<amos> For a professional trader that says"
<amos> Salivate and drool , cos opportunity is acoming
<amos> ( I am not Damon Runyon)
<lmarsh> !
<sal> i've been salivating and drooling but I thought it was cause i was going mad
<fibo> lol
<Sherry> ">
<mrj> lol
<Frank> alergys sal
<amos> no, sal , that was the husband splendoring in the golf grass
<fibo> lol
<sal> :) doesnt he wish
<Lavona> lol
<fibo> lol
<amos> The most important point I am trying to impart here tonite is that when market get to look "crazy"
<SteveF> if you can lose money and keep your good spirits, you are halfway there sal.
<eric> 
<amos> that is the right time to concentrate on charts and collect important information and be
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<sal> it's the other half way i want steve :)
<amos> ready for a turning point off imporatn support/resistance and get good signals and act!!!
<gary f> sorry got knocked off
<Lavona> 
<SteveF> better then knocked up
<Lavona> hey
<sal> lol
<Frank> there are a lot of grain tops in may
<amos> When everyone else gets crazy--the professional quiet down, sit and ponder and contemplate and then they see
<amos> the light and prophet.
<gary f> :)
<sal> great pun
<amos> I found today the site of the institution for professional bureacrats whose moto is:
<amos> When in charge, ponder.
<gary f> :)
<amos> when in toruble, delgat
<amos> and when in doubt, mumble.
<Lavona> :)
<SteveF> and deny everything
<sal> when in the oval office ________
<gary f> sounds like clinton
<Lavona> lol
<Sherry> ,">
<amos> very funny site-- go there when you have a moment of doubt 
<amos> here is the link:
<amos> http://www.jimboren.com/inataprobu.html
<gary f> does he study wyckoff?
<fibo> lol
<amos> Back to seriousness--we are closing on the month of april--any interesting observation on a
<amos> particular monthy chart?
<mrj> 
<amos> soybeneans are close to the high of the chart--if we close around here-it is bullish.
<gary f> I think the beans if steady this week will have a great monthly close
<gary f> hey I beat u
<gary f> what are soybeneans?
<amos> Metals, on the other hand--look weak. How is cotton, rice, lumber, of, sugara?
<gary f> sugar is 20 points from its monthly high
<SteveF> spanish beans
<gary f> but has ice at the level that is stopped at last week
<amos> By the way--you can see that most chart services--the free ones do not let you look at the monthly
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<SteveF> yes
<amos> chart before the month is over--this is part of manipulation!!
<SteveF> or they only have 6 bars or so
<amos> with drinking limits
<lmarsh> yep
<SteveF> lol
<amos> At any rate--you people should pore over current monthly charts in the next 3 days and
<amos> have pictures in your mind.
<Sherry> I pay for mine, and lost last 3 months when it rolled
<sal> that's the play-long alcohol and short cocoa ( all women give up chocolate to get into swimsuits
<gary f> oh no
<amos> explain sherry, please
<gary f> :) sal
<fibo> lolsal
<Lavona> lol
<amos> what month alcohol are you trading now, sal?
<sal> CURRENT
<amos> are there carrying charges?
<Frank> choclate is a health food now, it was on the news
<sal> small carrying charge from frig to deck ::)
<mrj> lol
<fibo> lol
<Sherry> when we rollrd to newquarter other data didnt transfer
<lmarsh> lol
<Jeff Z.> good night all. Very entertaining chat tonight.
<amos> do you detect moon cycles in alcohol trading?
<mrj> nite jeff
<Lavona> which service Sherry
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<fibo> only if it is moonshine amos
<Sherry> DTN
<sal> well when my husband moons the neighbors were long too many contracts
<SteveF> lol
<gary f> he does?
<fibo> lol
<gary f> oh oh time to lighten up :)
<SteveF> need a daily limit
<amos> if husbands only knew how lowly on the totem poles they can get in certain chatrooms....
<sal> laugh thru the pain, keep sane :)
<gary f> temp pain :)
<amos> I am very serious about watching monthly charts, towards end of month and gauging the forces
<amos> of supply and demand for the next month--it gives you a good frame of mind.
<amos> sehrry, you did not explain the dropping of last 3 months
<mrj> good night all
<gary f> weekly charts as well this week
<fibo> nite mrj
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<Frank> nite mr j
<eric> 
<SteveF> nite mr
<amos> you realize the porkbellies are approaching 100?
<Frank> y
<fibo> yes 100.50 today
<lmarsh> uh huh
<amos> this has not happened in a long time
<Sherry> When I rolled to the M contract, last quarter did notshow up on new chart
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<amos> what did you do then, sherry?
<Sherry> Started again with 1 bar
<Frank> price of bacon in the store is down to eighty nine cents a lb
<SteveF> high of july 97 in pb
<gary f> that si because thew jewish peopel are eating more bacon driving up demand
<sal> :)
<lmarsh> :^)
<SteveF> 96 sorry
<gary f> squeeze in the bellies
<SteveF> and 82 and 75
<amos> I am only mentioning this to indicate that some commodities are at historicalhighs.
<gary f> and some at historical lows
<Frank> lean hogs have been going up almost six months now
<gary f> i think hogs and crude bottom within a month of each other
<amos> Yes, and if the crb is going to resume its upmove--there will be significan rallies in certain commodtities.
<gary f> what do u think will lead
<gary f> due to accumaultion?
<gary f> grains?
<amos> Gold, coffee, cocoa, sugar, rice are interesting and should be watched for buy signals.
<amos> Certainly for weekly thrusts.
<gary f> silver?
<gary f> cocoa is retesting support
<gary f> but has shown demand
<gary f> up to the 950 area
<amos> silver too.
<gary f> amos I saw that coffe is at weekly support
<gary f> since the market is near its daily lows
<eric> 
<amos> we do not talk here about stocks that represent commodities--for example the XAU index
<gary f> does this amrket need a selling cliamax
<amos> is a good precursor of metals.
<lmarsh> 
<gary f> amos I have a question.....
<amos> yes
<gary f> do all markets in order to bottom have to go thru a selling climax
<gary f> myexp is no
<gary f> but can u respond
<davep> 
<sal> 
<fibo> 
<amos> depends where you are in the bottoming action--if there was a sharp decline which ends a mark down
<amos> then climax is likely--if you are in an accumuloation area and it is near an end--then it is
<eric> 
<amos> more likely to have a terminal shakeout which may look like a selling climax--but is folowed by a sign of strength and not an automatic rally
<amos> the logical seqence is alwyas according to the Wyckoff principles-- but the individual apparition
<sal> pups calling ,walk time- nite all
<gary f> great
<fibo> nite sal
<amos> of the particular sequence--changes from market to market. (you see I already mumble!)
<lmarsh> nite sal
<SteveF> nite sal
<eric> 
<gary f> sal my will be going out shortly
<gary f> night sal
<davep> euro have sc yesterday?
<Frank> nite sal
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<amos> drink well
<gary f> do u see the sharp rallies in cocoa nad gold as a demand rally even though they are weak now
<amos> I have no idea, gary
<gary f> or a shake out in a bear market
<gary f> how do we look at that action?
<amos> Both will not surprise me.
<gary f> when we see a sharp rally like that?
<Lavona> goodnight all
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<amos> i do not know how to answer, really, gary
<SteveF> You make it easy to learn something new every day
<gary f> okay is there any commdity on a spring board here?
<Sherry> dont know really untill support test, do you?
<gary f> right
<gary f> well are there any questions?>
<gary f> on tonight or in general?
<davep> i'm assuming euro had sc yesterday?
<eric> 
<amos> ass u me ing, dave?
<Sherry> , thank you, nite all
<davep> 'fraid so
<lmarsh> see you folks tomorrow, gotta go.....nite
<amos> sc has very typical behavior--must be followed by AR>
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<davep> think we had (start) of one today
<amos> very possible, indeed. did you also see a bc in the dollar?
<davep> yup
<davep> but not as clear to me
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<amos> --they should confirm each other--at any rate--if it was a climax--then watching this market is very worthwhile!!
<davep> it's first one (SC) I can remember finding, so will look for retest
<amos> The problem with th e euro is lack of long term historical reference
<gary f> yes but it is like the d amrk
<Frank> when in doubt stay out
<amos> gary, is dmark still liquid?
<amos> or use condoms, Frank
<davep> think only trades globex, is that liquid?
<fibo> nite all and good trading
<amos> globex is not liquid
<amos> shall we all retire?
<SteveF> Thanks Gary and Amos and goodnight all.
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<gary f> no but the chart is like the euro
<Frank> if bill and monica didn't why should I?lol
<davep> think euro worth trouble to analyze % componets of its currencies, etc & look at their long term? easier to look at DM
<SteveF> as in 'Gone Fishin"?
<eric> good night all
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<gary f> well I need to walk the pups see u all tomorrow
<gary f> good night good folks
<amos> ok all I will go back to bed now
<SteveF> nite
<Frank> nite gary
<amos> good nite all.
<davep> night Gary, amos . . .everyone
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<Frank> nite amos
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