User [gary fullett /171.210.138.217] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 18:59:09 EDT 2000
<shannon> hi gary
<gary fullett> hi shannon
User [Sherry /209.240.162.164] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 18:59:50 EDT 2000
<Sherry> Hi Gary and Shannon
User [dpr /206.63.203.199] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 19:00:51 EDT 2000
<shannon> hi sherry , dpr
<dpr> hi all
<gary fullett> hi all
<shannon> dpr- sorry about yesterday my baby was kicking my mouse around
<dpr> no problem
<gary fullett> i will be with u in a minute
<gary fullett> hi any questions
<gary fullett> im here
<dpr> k
User [shannon /172.129.225.225] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 19:06:52 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> Im am sorry I had several calls
<gary fullett> but I am all your now
<gary fullett> any questions
<gary fullett> did u recieve the charts
<dpr> yes
<shannon> y
<shannon> me too
<gary fullett> those are the charts that I use in class at 8pm central
<gary fullett> but i wanted to go over some basics using charts tonight
<gary fullett> do u have the charts in front of u
<dpr> yes
<shannon> y on the screen
<gary fullett> lets take the s and P chart
<Sherry> getting them
<gary fullett> so u can see what I mena about horizontal support
<gary fullett> i will wait a second...
<gary fullett> okay
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> do u see the high made in march?
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> then the market
<gary fullett> went lower to sideways
<gary fullett> thru march into april
<gary fullett> see this?
<gary fullett> this is the cuase for the pending down move
<gary fullett> cause
<gary fullett> do u see what I mean by cause?
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> this lead to the pending down move
<shannon> i see down movement
<gary fullett> so this "cause"
<gary fullett> was distribution
<gary fullett> and lead to the break
<shannon> cause?
<gary fullett> now I mentioned to u the more
<gary fullett> sideways action
<gary fullett> the large the move
<gary fullett> yes shannon
<gary fullett> cause and effect..
<dpr> q
<gary fullett> cause is the sideways 
<gary fullett> movemne t
<gary fullett> the preparation period for a move
<gary fullett> yes dpr
<dpr> was there something about the action, between 3/24 and 4/3 that told you the move would be down and not just a pullback for more up
<gary fullett> very good question
<gary fullett> do u see the large move about april 3
<gary fullett> the large range
<gary fullett> and a good close
<gary fullett> 12 days ago
<dpr> yes a sign ow weakness
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> this day took ut some previous lows
<gary fullett> right? see this?
<gary fullett> the close was good though
<gary fullett> so this could mean demand 
<gary fullett> but what is critical
<gary fullett> is the next several days
<gary fullett> the next 3 days the markett went alittle higher
<gary fullett> do u see this?
<dpr> on sort of light vol yes
<gary fullett> yes light volume after a wide trading day range
<Sherry> in 3 days still insie range
<gary fullett> with some lows taken out
<gary fullett> or penetrated
<gary fullett> yes sherri
<gary fullett> sherry sorry
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> but we dont know that if this will lead to a retest of the highs do we?
<gary fullett> but if we watch the action
<gary fullett> we see a tight trading range and light volume
<gary fullett> right?
<gary fullett> this means that demand isnt present
<gary fullett> a rally on light volume ith small range
<gary fullett> if the market
<gary fullett> was good or going higher volume and price action would have been lower
<gary fullett> this break in april 3 
<gary fullett> was the sign of weakness in the market
<gary fullett> but the trend is UP
<gary fullett> so we must give the benefit of doubt
<gary fullett> to the bulls
<gary fullett> but if we see the market action
<gary fullett> it tells us
<gary fullett> that the market failed to rallt after the large range day
<gary fullett> see this>?
<gary fullett> so after the weak range and volume
<dpr> yes
<gary fullett> the market
<gary fullett> tried to rally
<gary fullett> and had a weak close
<gary fullett> 4 days after that large range day
<gary fullett> this weak close after trying to rally
<gary fullett> was a sign
<gary fullett> that the market was in trouble
<gary fullett> because after a weak day
<gary fullett> it could nt rally after 4 days
<gary fullett> rember what I mentioned to u that it is the quality
<gary fullett> of a raly from support
<gary fullett> that is important
<gary fullett> if it took 4 days to rally
<gary fullett> and it couldnt get above that high
<gary fullett> on april 3 this was weak market action
<gary fullett> if it went there to that high the next day
<gary fullett> this would be would be good action
<gary fullett> but the rally was labored
<gary fullett> so that weakness on april 3
<gary fullett> if it was to be overcome
<gary fullett> it had to rally to the highs in early march
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> but it could nt do this
<gary fullett> so the action was weak 
<Sherry> would tat have been a thrust on day 4
<gary fullett> do u see this?
<gary fullett> yes sherry
<gary fullett> I will explain as we continue in classes what small ranges mean to markets
<gary fullett> I will show u what a small range is waht large range is
<gary fullett> and volume ect..
<gary fullett> but I will be showing u with examples now
<gary fullett> so we now now 4 days after april 3
<gary fullett> that the market is in trouble
<gary fullett> but the market only went sideways or distributed
<gary fullett> foer about a month
<gary fullett> from the high
<gary fullett> so we know that the market has a count or cause
<gary fullett> to go lower
<gary fullett> but not just fall apart
<gary fullett> if the market went sideways for 4 months
<gary fullett> then the cause is much larger
<gary fullett> but only 1 month we can expect a break down but now a trend down yet
<gary fullett> do u see what I mean
<gary fullett> by this cause
<Sherry> y
<dpr> y
<gary fullett> sideways action is the fuel
<gary fullett> the more fuel
<gary fullett> the farther it can go
<shannon> y
<gary fullett> now friday was scary huh
<gary fullett> but remeber when I mentioned
<gary fullett> about horizontal support 
<Sherry> didnt know it would break that little creek
<gary fullett> look at the horizontal line I drew
<gary fullett> but i went right
<gary fullett> to
<gary fullett> the support from the whole yr
<gary fullett>-><dpr> u will see Lots and lots of examples I promise from now on
<gary fullett> yes it broke a creek
<gary fullett> at the 1430 area
<gary fullett> but that area was tested
<gary fullett> on april 3
<gary fullett> this creek should have been bought
<gary fullett> on that large break before
<shannon> 
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> but becasue the amrket stalled 4 days later
<gary fullett> this creek was going to be tested
<gary fullett> markets always test and retest
<gary fullett> so when u hear on TV
<gary fullett> that a mrket "should test the lows or highs again
<gary fullett> this is what they mean
<gary fullett> so we know that the creek would be tested at 1430 again
<gary fullett> but since the market could nt test
<gary fullett> the highs again
<gary fullett> after the april 3
<gary fullett> trading day
<gary fullett> thi could probably be taken out
<gary fullett> so the market retested the lows of the yr
<gary fullett> now if you had this line drawn
<gary fullett> u would have been long from yesterday
<gary fullett> but u can see in this example
<gary fullett> and I will show u many many more
<gary fullett> how important horizonatal lines are
<gary fullett> has anyone drawn sloping trendline?
<gary fullett> like connecting higher lows
<gary fullett> in an uptrend?
<dpr> yes
<Sherry> y
<shannon> n
<gary fullett> we u couldnt see that support
<gary fullett> in this case
<gary fullett> u would have to
<gary fullett> see this
<gary fullett> by drawing a horizontal line
<gary fullett> wyckoff uses horizontal
<gary fullett> lines
<gary fullett> very very oftern
<gary fullett> it is wyckoffs way
<gary fullett> of showing support ( demand)
<gary fullett> and resistance ( supply)
<gary fullett> like a floor as support
<gary fullett> and a ceiling as resistance
<gary fullett> do u see this
<gary fullett> it is very important
<dpr> yes
<shannon> y
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> when u come to the 8pm class we talk about this alot
<gary fullett> so after the panic on friday
<gary fullett> and the wek close
<gary fullett> you could have bough the yrs lows
<gary fullett> with little risk at support
<gary fullett> s and P are very expensive but u could have bought a call option
<gary fullett> now it is easy to go over this chart in hindsight right
<gary fullett> we need to make money and gain knowledge in the future
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> the question is whre does the amrket go from here?
<gary fullett> market
<gary fullett> any thoughts?
<gary fullett> we lets disect this
<Sherry> in a range to build cause?
<gary fullett> what is the cause or the sideways action
<gary fullett> that can lead to a move
<gary fullett> has the market prepared for a move
<gary fullett> ?
<gary fullett> well the market moved up sharply
<gary fullett> please note the market
<gary fullett> did some technical
<gary fullett> damage
<gary fullett> so after a wide move
<Sherry> it prepared for the move to test the years lows
<gary fullett> yes selling or distribution to that evel
<gary fullett> level
<gary fullett> so in order for the market to go to the highs it MUST prepare
<gary fullett> if the market was bullish
<gary fullett> why would it have given u a chance to buy
<gary fullett> at the yrs lows?
<gary fullett> so to me the market is still in trouble
<gary fullett> the CM doesnt make it that easy
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> so I think the market will now enter
<gary fullett> a sieways
<gary fullett> action
<gary fullett> in order to prepare for a move
<gary fullett> how can we tell where the market will go
<gary fullett> well we had a sign of weakness
<gary fullett> evidenced
<gary fullett> by the april 3 day
<gary fullett> then we had a brak to the yrs lows
<gary fullett> so the amrket is in a weak shape
<gary fullett> but it wont be easy to get short
<gary fullett> and if u were short
<gary fullett> u got killed
<gary fullett> in the last 2 days
<gary fullett> so the 1500 area could be tested
<gary fullett> but this should be still ressiatnce
<gary fullett> stiff
<gary fullett> so I believe we will go sideways over the next few weeks
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> do u see why i say this?
User [Jeff Z. /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 19:53:08 EDT 2000
<Jeff Z.> Good Evening 
<dpr> to prepare for the move yes
<gary fullett> yes dpr hi jeffz
<gary fullett> so this was a great example
<gary fullett> live chart
<gary fullett> of horizontal support
<gary fullett> see this?
<gary fullett> questions on the S and P?
<gary fullett> great I want to go over another chart with u
<gary fullett> before the 8pm class and we go over other charts too
<gary fullett> crude oil
<gary fullett> June
<shannon> 
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> what is the trend of crude?
<gary fullett> up o down?
<gary fullett> or
<gary fullett> it has been up over the past yr
<gary fullett> so the market prepared for a move
<Sherry> looks like pivoting
<gary fullett> last november
<gary fullett> thru december
<gary fullett> do u see this sideways action
<gary fullett> and the market was building cause
<gary fullett> remeber this sideways actions
<gary fullett> was a sideways action after the market moves up 
<gary fullett> all last yr
<gary fullett> so the market was accumaulting
<gary fullett> in early Jan 
<gary fullett> the market moved up do u see this
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.205] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 19:58:56 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> it gapped
<gary fullett> when a market goes sideways and is accumaultin
<gary fullett> it generally will leave the trading range by a gap
<gary fullett> this gap is called
<gary fullett> a JUMP OVER THE CREEK
<gary fullett> or joc
<gary fullett> I drew a horizonatl rsistance line at this point
<gary fullett> so this resistance was jump ed over and taken out
<gary fullett> and the big rally occur
<lmarsh> sorry, which chart is being discussed?
<gary fullett> the market continued
<gary fullett> to conyinued
<gary fullett> June crude
<lmarsh> thank you
User [shannon] left forum at Tue Apr 18 20:00:58 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> so the market really went stright up till the 3100 area
<gary fullett> after the market topped out
<gary fullett> the amrket recently went back to that creek area
<gary fullett> at the 2300 area
<gary fullett> the horizontal line
User [mrj /206.251.171.172] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:02:09 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> so the market took
<mrj> Hi everyone
<gary fullett> a month or so but retested
<lmarsh> Hello Mr J
<mrj> hey marsh
<gary fullett> the area of previous ressiatnce NOW support
User [sal /216.192.226.8] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:02:47 EDT 2000
<Sherry> hi
<gary fullett> do u see thie retest?
<sal> hi y'all
<lmarsh> y
<mrj> hi sherry & sherri
<dpr> y
<Jeff Z.> y
<mrj> hi sal
<gary fullett> and the rally occurred
<lmarsh> Hi
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> I will stp the beginners class here
<gary fullett> so we can discuss alll the charts
<gary fullett> but are htere any questions?
<gary fullett> next class for me after tonight will be on Monday
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> okay
<sal> I hope you're taking a well deserved holiday
<gary fullett> I need to take a break for 2 minutes anwill be back
<gary fullett> oh I will be at work
<gary fullett> but I have dinner plans on wednesday and thusday
<gary fullett> so I will be in the office from 6 am till 5 pm tomorrow and thursday
<gary fullett> I will be right back....
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:05:52 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> talk among yourselfs :)
<sal> are all markets closed Fri?
User [mike /152.168.110.52] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:06:34 EDT 2000
<davep> hi everyone<Enter Text Here>
<lmarsh> not sure sal, I do think so tho.
User [eric /206.98.11.173] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:07:13 EDT 2000
<lmarsh> Hi dave / eric
<mrj> 
<mrj> hi dave& eric
<Sherry> because markket left top with no sign of failure then creek became support?(oil)
<eric> hi imarsh mrj and all
<dpr> yes everything is closed on friday
<sal> well guess i'll be forced to play golf then:)
<mrj> :)
<dpr> :)
<lmarsh> hope you have good weather for it. : )
<sal> it was 85 today so i hope it holds
<sal> still need rain tho...it can do that at night
<gary fullett> okay I am here sorry
<gary fullett> yes sherry to your question
<gary fullett> markets are closed on friday
<Sherry> thanks
<gary fullett> and will close early for the most part on thursday
<gary fullett> okay lets begin
<gary fullett> did everyone get the charts?
<davep> y
<eric> y
User [mike] left forum at Tue Apr 18 20:12:32 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I want to go over a chart real breifly that I went over
<gary fullett> in the other class
<gary fullett> the s and p
<gary fullett> what I wanted to say breifly
<gary fullett> was that see in early april the break
<gary fullett> april 3
<gary fullett> I dont trade this market fo the most part because of volituy
<gary fullett> but I want to show thee action
<gary fullett> the april 3 wide price action
<gary fullett> took out some lows
<gary fullett> ans showed weakness
<gary fullett> see this
<gary fullett> then it took 4 days
<gary fullett> to rally
<gary fullett> and the ranges were tight
<gary fullett> and the volume was light
<gary fullett> this shoed that the market lacked demmand
User [mike /152.168.110.52] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:15:23 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> showed
<gary fullett> and that the market should have shown demand if the amrket was bullish
<gary fullett> even though the action was good
<gary fullett> but remeber the action was on the downside on that day
<gary fullett> so the market showed cause from early march till april
<gary fullett> but this day april 3
<gary fullett> the market had its sign of weakness
User [chris /63.15.181.35] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:16:51 EDT 2000
<Jeff Z.> 
<lmarsh> 
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> this weakness will lead to a subsequesnt break
<gary fullett> which it did last week
<gary fullett> but remeber what I mentioned that
<gary fullett> hat if we watch the action
<gary fullett> we can see the CM intention
<gary fullett> and the "news "
<gary fullett> will be known to us
<gary fullett> last week
<gary fullett> before the news
<gary fullett> hit on friday
<eric> 
<gary fullett> the market went down all week
<davep> 
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> I recieved a call from someone and they entioned that they were short
<gary fullett> and I mentiond that I would cover on friday
<gary fullett> and take the profit from a short position
<gary fullett> the reason to me was simple
<gary fullett> see where the market bottomed out n friday and then again on Monday?
<lmarsh> y
<Jeff Z.> y
<gary fullett> the market went to horizontal support
<gary fullett> at the yrs lows
<gary fullett> now I asked the question in the last class and I will ask agian
<gary fullett> 2 questions actually
<gary fullett> one if the market was bullish would the CM let u buy at the yrs lows?
<gary fullett> 2)
<gary fullett> is there preapration or cause for an up move now?
User [Toni /207.50.1.167] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:21:58 EDT 2000
<Sherry> 
User [Toni] left forum at Tue Apr 18 20:22:15 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> well the answer to me in question 1 is No
<lmarsh> I think no, to both?
<gary fullett> and the answer to question 2 is no as well
<davep> ditto
<gary fullett> yes lamrash
<gary fullett> so we know in hindsight what the market did
<gary fullett> we can see the sign of weakness on the 3 of april
<gary fullett> and the subsequesnt retest
User [mike] left forum at Tue Apr 18 20:23:40 EDT 2000
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> of the yrs lows
<gary fullett> with no preparation
<gary fullett> what should we see now?
<gary fullett> Hi toni
<gary fullett> I think the answer is
<lmarsh> the sideways action earlier was distribution, ?
<gary fullett> we has weakness
<gary fullett> YES
<gary fullett> YES
<lmarsh> got it
<gary fullett> and now we should go sideways for a bit within a range preparing for a move
<gary fullett> after a large move the CM takes profits
<gary fullett> and then prepares for his next campaign
<gary fullett> questions on the s and p?
<gary fullett> I want to show tonight
<gary fullett> the important of horizontal lines
<davep> so you don't see retest of 1300, 1280 from last fall?
<gary fullett> I do
<gary fullett> I think we need to prepare and distribute
<gary fullett> at these levelss for a bit
<gary fullett> maybe test the 1500 area
<gary fullett> and make new lows
<gary fullett> we had a sign of weakness
<eric> 
<gary fullett> and now should distribute
<gary fullett> and make another leg down
<gary fullett> I didnt see the panic
<gary fullett> on friday
<gary fullett> so i htink the amrket
<gary fullett> needs to go lower
<gary fullett> to panic people
<gary fullett> by the way I think the nasdaq can test the 2500 to 2800 area next time down
<gary fullett> and yes davep
<gary fullett> the s and p to the 1280 area
<gary fullett> we have had our weakness
<gary fullett> so now we should distribute
<gary fullett> this make take some time
User [mrj] left forum at Tue Apr 18 20:29:20 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> to wear and tear investors
<gary fullett> what is interesting
<gary fullett> to u think that on this rally that most stocks will gain back what they lost?
<lmarsh> no, imh0
<gary fullett> me either
User [sal /216.192.226.8] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:30:22 EDT 2000
User [mrj /206.251.171.172] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:30:24 EDT 2000
<davep> see change of sponsorship, disavowing dot com & any stocks without earnings
<gary fullett> even if th amrket goes back near the highs most stocks will not recover in my opinion
<sal> many will see chance to finally get out
<gary fullett> nasdaq stocks are still overpriced
<gary fullett> but I dont think they will sal
<gary fullett> they will think the worse is over
User [Jimbo /63.31.228.149] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:31:44 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and will hold the stocks
<gary fullett> hey jimbo
<mrj> hi jimbo
<Jimbo> Hi yall. sorry late
<gary fullett> so lets watcj the s and ps
<gary fullett> closely for the next few months
<gary fullett> questions?
<Sherry> 
<sal> i ll use it as chance to sell
<lmarsh> should'nt the cm get a good range going,(distribution)for a few weeks before a (sc)
<chris> 
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> i agree sal
<gary fullett> yep lmarsh
<lmarsh> somthing else, the distribution early, was the "count" as large as the move down that we had.
<lmarsh> can't find my scale..lol
<gary fullett> yes the trage of distribtion from march till april lead to the break last week
<gary fullett> now we need to distibute again
<gary fullett> the process begins again
<gary fullett> but now with a sign of weaknes
<gary fullett> the cm wants to public to feel good agin
<eric> 
<gary fullett> k
<davep> 
<gary fullett> silver
<gary fullett> we havent talked about this market that much
<gary fullett> but we have talked about gold eairler
<sal> gotcha
<gary fullett> silver builing a large base here
<gary fullett> or a trading range
User [fibo /204.119.225.197] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:36:41 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> do u see this large trading range
<gary fullett> hi fibo
<fibo> hi everyone
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> i waited for u to talk rains later
<gary fullett> grains not rains :)
<gary fullett> in my opinion if silver was bearish it would nt
<gary fullett> take this long to distribute
<gary fullett> and the market should have gone lower already
<gary fullett> do u see the trading range
<sal> y
<gary fullett> from the 510 area
<fibo> y
<gary fullett> to the 550 area
<lmarsh> y
<eric> y
<gary fullett> this has been 2 months of a trading range
<gary fullett> with a 40 cent range
<chris> y
<Jeff Z.> 
<gary fullett> so I believe the market will break out soon
<gary fullett> though one never knows when
<gary fullett> do u see the horizontal resisatnce
<gary fullett> and the support
<gary fullett> it is clearly defined
<gary fullett> it is interesting
<gary fullett> that if the stock market is distrubuting
<mrj> 
<Jimbo> y very
<gary fullett> then this should lead to money into the metals
<gary fullett> and if the stock market rally of 2 days fail
<gary fullett> silver could benefit
<gary fullett> any opinions on the silver market?
<Jimbo> because silver stronger than gold?
<gary fullett> who thinks accumulatin?
<gary fullett> who thinks distribution?
<Jimbo> accum
<lmarsh> yea
<sal> accum
<lmarsh> accum
<eric> accum
<gary fullett> silver is called the cheap mans metal and it has more industrial uses foer the CM execuses
<gary fullett> to run it up
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> a good way to play this it to
<gary fullett> buy silver and sell a call
<gary fullett> or sell puts
<gary fullett> or some way to get long and protect in case the market test the bottom of the range again
<gary fullett> but this sideways trading range will lead to a moe
<gary fullett> move
<gary fullett> do u see this range
<davep> 
<sal> how bout sell a close call and buy two further out?
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> oj
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> is anonther market that is similar
<gary fullett> that is another way to play it
<gary fullett> the prblem with options in silver they are in NY
<gary fullett> and they tend to screw ya
<gary fullett> but that is a way to play it
<sal> oh yeah slippage city:)
<gary fullett> I jsut dont like to be short 2 calls
<gary fullett> even though
<gary fullett> there is some protection when I think the market is accumaulting
<gary fullett> so I would rather be short premiumum
<gary fullett> wih a long future
<gary fullett> so I can benefit more
<sal> not short 2....short 1 and long 2
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> or i see
<gary fullett> well that is a way to play it
<gary fullett> but u must have a large move
<sal> take advantafe of big move and limit risk
<fibo> 
<sal> yep
<gary fullett> and in this case u should get one if it gets out of this range
<gary fullett> well in that case u must get to the long strike price to benefit
<Jimbo> weekly & monthly both look promising too
<gary fullett> not a bad idea there are several ways to play it
<gary fullett> so would u sell a 525 call
<gary fullett> and buy 2 550 calls?
<sal> yIF prices were close to no cost
<gary fullett> hmm not a bad idea
<gary fullett> though I think that u can make more money with a future
<sal> have to check volatility of options tho first
<gary fullett> and selling a call
<gary fullett> so time doesnt affect u
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> I will have to look that up
<chris> 
<gary fullett> for saftey
<sal> yes , this would be longer and get out before final month
<gary fullett> one can buy a 525 call and sell 1 550 or 575 call
<gary fullett> so u would have to go out till september options in silver
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> good idea
<gary fullett> OJ
<gary fullett> then I want to talk grains
<davep> 
User [dpr /206.63.203.199] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:53:42 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> oj has develpoed a trading range from Feb
<gary fullett> till now
<gary fullett> I mentioend this last night
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> from the 8100 area
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> to the 8700 area
<gary fullett> do u see this?
<eric> y
<Jimbo> y
<lmarsh> y
<gary fullett> we know one of 2 things this is eaither accumaultion
<gary fullett> or distribution :)
<gary fullett> the oj market has been going dow from last october till Feb
<gary fullett> down
<gary fullett> then a sharp rally
<gary fullett> and then the amrket devloped
<gary fullett> a trading range from that point
<sal> plus oj implied volatility is lowest level on chart (relatively)
<gary fullett> if u look at the sloping line I drew
<gary fullett> the market went to resisatnce
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> bt didnt close so badly today after yesterdays action
<gary fullett> thank u sal
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> so in the next few days
<gary fullett> I think u will see a significant move in OJ
<gary fullett> if this was distribution again like silver
<gary fullett> it would have broken already
<gary fullett> rather than just haning out in this range
<gary fullett> sometimes when a market is bearish like oj was
<gary fullett> and soesn t break
<gary fullett> this means that one would expect weakness
<gary fullett> and it isnt there so demand takes over
<gary fullett> but that trading range is biuliding
<gary fullett> cuase or preparation for a move
<gary fullett> questions on OJ?
User [Jeff Z. /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 20:59:17 EDT 2000
<Sherry> whats a good lenth of time if its distribution/
<davep> 
<eric> so prelonged trading range leads to a trend change instead of trend continuation.
<Jimbo> monthly looks good to but isn't weekly in downtrend?
<chris> 
<Jimbo> too
<gary fullett> one never knows sherri
<gary fullett> sherry
<gary fullett> but we know this the longer sideways longer preparation
<gary fullett> further the move
<lmarsh> 
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> I believe so eric great question
<gary fullett> fibo what is your experience with erics question?
<gary fullett> I think the longer time a market goes sideways after a down move this means to me a move to the up
<gary fullett> do u have an opinion fibo?
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> any more questions on OJ?
<gary fullett> Jimbo weekly hasnt proven itself yet
<gary fullett> but if the amrket gets above 8700 area
<gary fullett> i think the weekly will change
<gary fullett> Beans......
<fibo> gary i think it can be either way..but whenever it moves out of the range it has to have large volume
<gary fullett> I agree
<gary fullett> my experince is that it gnerally will be a trend change
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> and that is because the volume after the down move is usually to the up
<gary fullett> and this shows demand
<gary fullett> thank u fibo
<eric> thanks gary and fibo
<gary fullett> the volume will show if it is ether
<gary fullett> demand or supply
<gary fullett> eric
<gary fullett> nd dont forget to watch price action as well
<Jimbo> thx to both
<gary fullett> beans
<gary fullett> the market to me is enetering a very important time frame
<gary fullett> we are about to get more into a weather market
<gary fullett> so volitity
<gary fullett> will pick up
<Sherry> 
<fibo> lots of times it will go sideways then have a move down in same trend direction and that will be the SC or BC then it changes
<gary fullett> dont watch the weather because the action
<gary fullett> will tell u alot
<gary fullett> yes in the case of silver I think we had that when the mrket went under 500
<gary fullett> beans have held support very nicely
<gary fullett> we need to see constructive action son
<davep> 
<gary fullett> with volume and price action to the upside
<gary fullett> since march weekly and monthly had a good close
<gary fullett> one would think that april will close well too
<gary fullett> we we have a week
<gary fullett> to show this
<gary fullett> though it is not out outf the questin that we can get a wash out
<gary fullett> to get the weak longs out
<gary fullett> before going to new highs
<gary fullett> the actio from last thursday to me was important
<gary fullett> because the market attempted
<gary fullett> to go to the highs and had a weak close
<gary fullett> thursday night friday morning that it
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> so we ill need to get aboves last weeks high to run to new highs
<gary fullett> what I can say about grains
<gary fullett> is that support holds nicely
<gary fullett> do u understand what the cm is doing?
<gary fullett> he is conducting a sideways to higher trend short term
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> he tries
<fibo> accumulating.. 
<gary fullett> to wear and tear people but queity
<gary fullett> trading with in a range
<gary fullett> so he conducts breaks
<gary fullett> to get the weak longs out
<gary fullett> he buys and accumualtes
<gary fullett> at lower levels
<gary fullett> to me the key area in may beans
<gary fullett> is the 526-528 area
<gary fullett> I will send july next week
<gary fullett> so he is quietly accumalting
<gary fullett> and the market is building cause
<gary fullett> questions?
<gary fullett> fibo did u want to add to the beans?
<sal> 
<lmarsh> 
<fibo> no looks like you covered it:-)
<dpr> 
<chris> 
<Jeff Z.> 
<fibo> July bean is still holding it's trend line also.
<eric> 
<davep> 
<Sherry> 
<Jimbo> 
User [gary fullett /171.217.50.94] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 21:18:56 EDT 2000
<eric> 
<gary fullett> sorry got bumped 
<gary fullett> so beans act well
<gary fullett> and are holdig support
<gary fullett> we can get a wash out
<gary fullett> but I think breaks should be bought
<Sherry> so this trading range at the highs in meal is not distribution?
<gary fullett> an over view
<gary fullett> well it could be sherry
<eric> 
<gary fullett> it is like beans
User [gary /171.217.50.94] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 21:21:43 EDT 2000
<gary> and may have a wash out
<gary> so I am inclined to be friendly this market
<sal> what do spreads tell ya gary?
<gary> I feel the trend is up
<gary> but I would be surprised to be a wash out
<gary> but to me breaks should be bought
<gary> laterly the spreads have been negative
<gary> great question sal
<gary> soymeal has lagged oil
<gary> meal was up 4 today oil was up 30
<gary> so this is negative spreading with the crush spread
<gary> beans oil meal
<gary> so that is why I say we may get a wash out to the down side
<gary> but I dont think u can have a short postions as an overall postion
User [amos /62.0.146.176] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 21:24:47 EDT 2000
<gary> good morning amos
<fibo> hi
<sal> so the cm may use a real wash out (rain) to cause a price wash out to get long again?
<davep> hi amos
<lmarsh> Gut Morgen Amos
<gary> meal is ina trading range
<amos> I am sorry for being late, but very happy of where I come from.
<gary> and is holding support
<gary> but has lagged lately
<gary> where do u come from :)
<gary> ?
<Sherry> hello amos
<amos> A space of pleasur
<davep> who (?) do yo come from? :-)
<eric> hi hello
<Jimbo> hi amos
<gary> wow
<amos> ee
<gary> amos any elightening commentary?
<amos> I think the crb is telling all.
<gary> I did send the daily chart today
<gary> it acts very well
<amos> By the time april gold is off the board--June is going to rally, softs are moving
<amos> meats are strong and grains are biding time--must be long.
<gary> I agree we mentioned that tonight
<gary> how about the stock market then?
<amos> No connection. We need 2 more days of this rally and we turn to test the lows.
User [Jimbo] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:29:17 EDT 2000
<davep> monday, monday
<amos> what did I miss=--what was the main observation here?
<gary> I know there is no correlation
<gary> but I just wante your opinion
<gary> I talked about the grains and silver
<gary> and oj
<gary> I was going to discuss the crb next and u showe d up
<amos> Nov beans seem to hold that 549 support very well.
<gary> like 528 in may
<amos> Coffee showed first rally from a very large creek. Cocoa mat go to 1000 in July.
<amos> All commodities are following the crb.
<Jeff Z.> 
User [mrj /206.251.171.172] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 21:31:44 EDT 2000
<mrj> 
<gary> cocoam has moved up nicley lately
<gary> cocoa
<gary> next week I will send the weekly coffee chart and we can discuss
<gary> the weekly suports
<Sherry> 
<amos> It does not seem that any commodity is in a screeching urge to rally, nothing like the energy a few weeks ago,
<amos> but it is steady higher highs and higher lows.
<gary> do u think that the grains will rally after may goes into dleivery?
<amos> yes.
<gary> so we may hang out here till then?
<amos> The reason is that demand is winnign.
<lmarsh> what date does may go in to delivery?
<amos> I am for nov.
<amos> last day of previous month
<lmarsh> k
<amos> 4.30.00
<gary> do u think november will be stronger than july?
<amos> I wanted to post today a blurp from Jack Schwagger posted on tfc about the uselessness 
<eric> 
<amos> of long term charts. I started to edit it but ran out of time (and into other things)
<Sherry> 28th of april
User [chris /63.15.181.35] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 21:36:09 EDT 2000
<amos> But you would not believe the nonesense.
<amos> And he represents these days Prudential Baige.
<gary> what did it say?
<davep> 
<fibo> 
<amos> some cockamaime stuff how continuation charts are misleading. On the monthly
<amos> Backwardation and stuff. pure sinister garbage.
<amos> If I finish today I will post.
<amos> (tmw for you guys)
<amos> Where is resistance in teh dow?
User [Jeff Z.] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:39:05 EDT 2000
User [mrj] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:39:05 EDT 2000
<fibo> 10811 is 50%
<amos> 10800 is 50 % of the last decline, correct?
<lmarsh> y
<fibo> y
<amos> Then watch this. If you see a 60 min thurust... sell a mini or somthing.
<amos> If you get stopped out the first time--try again, the second should work.
User [gary fullett /152.171.9.200] joined forum at Tue Apr 18 21:41:24 EDT 2000
<fibo> wb gary
<gary fullett> bumped again sorry
<amos> should be interesting to watch that 10811. I am putting this as an alert
<sal> 
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> is that ice area?
<amos> just did.
<fibo> 50%
<gary fullett> just did what?
<lmarsh> neat
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> i was bumped sorry
<amos> Does any one agree with me on the thrust method? or is it against the grain here?
<fibo> i believe anything that works amos :-)
<gary fullett> u mean buying at new highs on a 60 min chart?
<gary fullett> me as well
<lmarsh> I've made note of it amos. Still studying, thanks for making the statement/ alert.
<amos> fibo, it is a methodology. If you feel comfortable to sell a predetermined level with an arbitrary stop...this is
<amos> fine.
<amos> If you would rather see either weakness or strength in the direction you want the market to go..this
<amos> is another way--and you have a prepared market stoop--the lows of the previous time period.
<amos> It is following rather than predicting approach.
<sal> so you are confirming that is it not doing what it should not do? :)
<amos> I am watiting for the market to go my way in a small way. If I want to sell the DOW and as fibo said 50% is 10811.
<amos> Nothing in the world says it should stop there. If the CM wants to stop it there--it would. How would i know?
<Sherry> 
<chris> 
<amos> simply it will have to make lower lows and lower highs.
<amos> So if I take an arbitrary 60 minutes bar chart--I wait (around the 10811) for the 60 minutes to make a lower
<amos> low. Espcecially if there is a "buying climax" on the 60 minutes. I mean by the quotes, the shape of
<amos> the buying climax, rather than the fully correct theoretical with high volume and stuff.
<amos> Then I have a ready made stop loss--it is the last high on the 60 minutes.
<davep> 
<gary fullett> k
<amos> You have to give up the distance from the high--but you increase your probability of being right.
<amos> I just wonder if anyone likes this approach. I know Gary does not.
<fibo> i do
<lmarsh> time to go to work, hope everone a good day tonight/ tomorrow. nite
<fibo> nite lmarsh
User [lmarsh] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:50:35 EDT 2000
<amos> good work lmarsh
<amos> tomorrow no class right?
<gary fullett> the room will be open I will not be here
<amos> neither will I. But I will be here Thursday.
<gary fullett> I dont amos but that doesn t mean it isnt a good approch
<gary fullett> so the room is open
<gary fullett> I will see you all on Monday for class
<sal> we'll be sure to clean up after we leave :)
<gary fullett> if anyone needs to contact me I will be at work
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> please email me or call
<gary fullett> the dog may answer tomorrow night though
<fibo> sal while the cats are away the mice will play :-)
<gary fullett> and the cat on thursday night
<gary fullett> :)
<sal> lol
<fibo> lol@Gary
<gary fullett> the cat needs tio find mice
<gary fullett> and this is a new home so if there is mice oh oh
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> and if I find 2 mice I am getting more cats :)
<Sherry> thank you gary and amos, goodnight
User [Sherry] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:53:51 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I will see u all on Monday
<fibo> nite gary and thanks
<eric> gn gary
<gary fullett> everyone have a wonderful holiday arkets are closed on Friday
<fibo> same to you Gary
<gary fullett> thursday tey closeearly for the most part
<sal> Bunny UP everyone !!!! nite
<gary fullett> be safe
<gary fullett> and good trading to all
<fibo> nite sal
<sal> glad you like it
User [sal] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:55:45 EDT 2000
<gary fullett>-><sal> i did thanx
<fibo> nite all and good trading
<eric> gn fibo
<gary fullett> night fibo thnax
User [fibo] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:56:07 EDT 2000
<chris> good trades and goodnight all
<gary fullett> u too chris
<eric> gn chris
<gary fullett> private chat jkelly erases
User [chris] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:57:20 EDT 2000
<amos> gn all see you thrusday.
<amos> I will email you gary
<davep> good night Gary, enjoy your holiday
<eric> gn amos
<davep> night Amos
User [amos] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:57:53 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> k good night all
<davep> night eric
User [gary fullett] left forum at Tue Apr 18 21:57:57 EDT 2000