User [gary fullett /152.175.148.202] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 19:01:50 EDT 2000
<sherri> hi gary
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
<dpr> hi
<shannon> hi
<gary fullett> hows was everyone weekend/>
<gary fullett> k
<dpr> good thanks, yours
<gary fullett> okay nay questions?
<gary fullett> any
<sherri> been watching the swiss gary?
<gary fullett> yes I have
<gary fullett> did u have a question sherri?
<sherri> this a failure?
<sherri> going to retest?
<gary fullett> that is a great question
<gary fullett> Yes I dobeliev that the swiss will retest
<sherri> thx
<gary fullett> and this will form a nice base of accumulation
<gary fullett> the volume should be on lighter volume
<Peggy> Gary the SF looks to be in the middle of a trading range,yes?
<gary fullett> this will show that supply or selling will not be coming into the market
<gary fullett> if the volume is heavy this will show supply or selling and new lows can occur
<sherri> poked it's head above 50 day MA
<gary fullett> yes peggy at this point yes
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> if u draw a trendline the support is at the 6025 area
<gary fullett> draw a line from the lows
<gary fullett>-><shannon> ask any questions u like I dont bite\
<gary fullett> watch the volume ina trading range
<gary fullett> what I would like to discuss tonight 
<gary fullett> is trading ranges
<gary fullett> and the support and resisatnce from the 
<gary fullett> with the volume
<gary fullett> we went thru the wave
<gary fullett> is there any questions about the wave?
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> so we have the wave
<Peggy> a trading range can occur anywhere during the wave?
<gary fullett> now how do we make money from what we know
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> peggy
<gary fullett> but when the market rallies
<gary fullett> it will hit resisatnce
<gary fullett> then go sideays
<gary fullett> re-accumaulte
<gary fullett> and go higher
<gary fullett> it is like a steping ladder
<gary fullett> one of the things unique to wyckoff
<gary fullett> it that he uses horizontal lines to show true support and resistance
<sherri> I like that
<gary fullett> so let take a market that just had a selling climax
<gary fullett> good for u sherri :)
<gary fullett> after the selling climax ( the bear market is iver)
<gary fullett> over
<gary fullett> the market will go sideways
<gary fullett> this because the market needs 
<gary fullett> "cause"
<gary fullett> to go higher
<gary fullett> so this sideways action
<gary fullett> is called accumulation
<gary fullett> more buying on balance by the cm than selling
<gary fullett> sp lets take an example
<gary fullett> beans
<gary fullett> the lows have been 510
<gary fullett> the highs have been 550
User [gary fullett] left forum at Mon Apr 17 19:14:22 EDT 2000
<shannon> 
<Peggy> 
User [gary fullett /152.175.148.202] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 19:14:52 EDT 2000
<Peggy> wb
<dpr> 
<dpr> 
<sherri> easter buuy kidnapped gary
<gary fullett> sorry i had to refresh
<gary fullett> :)
<sherri> bunny
<Peggy> :)
<gary fullett> so these 2 levels that I mentioend
<gary fullett> the 550 area is reisstance
<sherri> yes and no 7/10
<gary fullett> the 510 area
<gary fullett> is support
<sherri> not enough to end drought
<gary fullett> resisatnce like a ceiling because u can draw a line acroos the tops at 550
<gary fullett> and support like a floor at the 510 area
<gary fullett> because u can draw a horizonal line across from 550
<gary fullett> this is differnt from the sloping trend lines
<gary fullett> from like higgher lows that connect
User [gary fullett] left forum at Mon Apr 17 19:17:31 EDT 2000
<sherri> he he he
User [gary fullett /152.175.148.202] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 19:18:02 EDT 2000
<shannon> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> any questions
<gary fullett> do u understand what I mean by support at resisatnce
<sherri> yes
<shannon> y
<gary fullett> using horizontal lines
<Peggy> y
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> this is very important to understand
<gary fullett> because it will allow u to see demand and supply
<sherri> the trick is knowing where to draw them
<gary fullett> accumaultion and distribution
<gary fullett> do u know these terms that I am using?
<sherri> yes
<shannon> kinda
<gary fullett> that is where I will help u sherri
<gary fullett> which terms are u not sure of shannon?
<gary fullett> I want everyone to know these terms like their back of their hands
<gary fullett> which term ?
<sherri> is accumulation different in other commodities or is it a massive short always like the grains?
<gary fullett> accumaultion is always the same
<gary fullett> it is the on balance buying or getting long contracts by the cm
<sherri> see accumulation shows up as shorts in grains
<gary fullett> distribution is the on balance selling
<gary fullett> by the cm in order to marke down prices are sell short
<gary fullett> what do u mean sheeri?
<sherri> gary...when the cm buys from farmer...he goes short the board
<gary fullett> the farmer?
<sherri> owns the grain and it shows up as a short
<gary fullett> as a hedge
User [Sherry /209.240.161.133] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 19:23:13 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I am aware of that
<sherri> no the cm
<gary fullett> hi sherry
<sherri> hi sherry
<Sherry> hi Gary and everyone
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> are u referring to people like archaer daniesl?
<sherri> so in other commodities does it show up as a short also?
<gary fullett> and cargil
<sherri> yes
<gary fullett> I understand what u mena
<gary fullett> mean
<sherri> they hedge the product once they have bought it
<gary fullett> well the farmer has the crop so the farmer must sell futures if he/she wants to hedge
<gary fullett> i know what u mena but for this discussion
<gary fullett> I am referring to the CM as "people in the know"
<sherri> ok
<gary fullett> and they will buy the grain in order to mark up prices
<gary fullett> I knwo the logistics
<gary fullett> but ..
<gary fullett> not for the wyckoff scenrio
<gary fullett> though u r right and Im aware of this
<gary fullett> so the cm buys
<gary fullett> and this is accumaultion
<gary fullett> aftre the marjet went thru its selling cliamx
<gary fullett> the longer thesideway movement the larger the move
<sherri> just wanted people to know that because you think cm is short doesn't mean he doesn't own it
<gary fullett> right sherri and 1 day I will explai
<gary fullett> k
<sherri> ok
<gary fullett> so the market goes in a trading range
<gary fullett> when the market rallies
<gary fullett> or goes up
<gary fullett> or is marked up
<gary fullett> the volume should be on higher volume
<gary fullett> and the price action should be wider
<gary fullett> the increase of volume
<gary fullett> means DEMAND
<gary fullett> or buying
<gary fullett> the wider price range means
<gary fullett> that the increase volujme
<gary fullett> and demand
<gary fullett> is moving prices high to the path of least resistance
<gary fullett> this rally should go to resistance
<gary fullett> then when the market pulls back
<gary fullett> the volume should be
<gary fullett> on lighter volume
<gary fullett> and smaller price action
<gary fullett> this is to show
<gary fullett> less supply or selling coming into the market
<gary fullett> this will tell u that demand is overtalking suplly
<gary fullett> that buying is overtaking selling
<gary fullett> anf that the CM ;s intention is to move up prices eventually
<gary fullett> does this make sense?
<Peggy> 
<sherri> y
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> if volume was heavier on the breaks
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> that menas that selling is overtaking
<gary fullett> demand
<gary fullett> and this is bearish
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> 1 sec please I need to get out of the room and come back in
User [gary fullett] left forum at Mon Apr 17 19:34:15 EDT 2000
<shannon> 
<Sherry> so today we had a rally in the e-mini and as price went up volumn gradually went down
<sherri> not supposed to be a good sign Sherry
User [gary fullett /152.175.148.202] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 19:35:55 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> sorry
<gary fullett> I needed to rfresh
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> good
<gary fullett> now...
<gary fullett> what I would like to explain for u
User [shannon /152.173.194.107] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 19:36:57 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> is how a market acts and reacts
<gary fullett> lets say that beans are at 510
<gary fullett> and that is horizontal support
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> now when the market gets to 510
<gary fullett> one would think that
<gary fullett> if support is truly at 510
<gary fullett> then if the markets trades htere
<gary fullett> the reaction off of support
<gary fullett> should be on good price action AND volume
<gary fullett> lets say the market rallies
<gary fullett> to 520
<gary fullett> that is a 10 cent rally from support right?
<sherri> y
<Peggy> yes
<shannon> y
<gary fullett> and the volume say is 50 k
<Sherry> y
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> now the market goes back to support at 510 several days later
<gary fullett> now the market rallies to 515 and the volume is 30 k
<gary fullett> this reaction from support at 510
<gary fullett> is noot as good as it was before
<gary fullett> the quality of rally was pooer do u see this?
<sherri> y
<gary fullett> this menas that demand wasnt as good as before
<gary fullett> and that demand is waning
<Sherry> y
<Peggy> y
<gary fullett> volume and price action should be more positive than this
<gary fullett> this is how u can tell if a rally is a good rally or a poor rally anfd will fail....
<gary fullett> so by watching Price action AND Volume
<gary fullett> u can tell how good that support is
<gary fullett> that is what most peopkle dont understand about volume
<gary fullett> it is P rice and AND volume
<gary fullett> that si Key 
<gary fullett> not just volume
<gary fullett> and not just price action
<gary fullett> volume is the fuel
<gary fullett> pricer action is the car
<gary fullett> need both to move
<gary fullett> going back to the last example
<gary fullett> after the marjet went to 520 on 50 k
<Sherry> If the rally is over 50% and volumn is light , could this mean just a retest of lows?
<gary fullett> then th amrket pullbacked back to 512 andthe volume was 30 k
<gary fullett> actaullly one would expect the volume to increase sherry
<gary fullett> showing supply
<gary fullett> if the volume is light this is bullish
<gary fullett> and a retest of the lows would nt happeen
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> light volume retests
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> are very bullish
<gary fullett> now if the market breaks to the lows on light volume
<gary fullett> this is bullish
<sherri> tell him the e-mini thing sherry
<gary fullett> plase tell me
<sherri> I don't think he saw it
<sherri> nope
<gary fullett> sherry did I miss something?
<Sherry> If the market rallies to 50% of yeterdays price with gradually decreasing volumn
<gary fullett> I undersatnd
<gary fullett> the s andp p
<gary fullett> this rally right
<Sherry> yes
<gary fullett> i was speaking of a market that is bulish or underaccumation
<gary fullett> this is a differnt case
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> the nasdaq
<gary fullett> for example
<gary fullett> the break was on heav volume
<gary fullett> and price action was wide
<gary fullett> this is bearish right
<gary fullett> ?
<sherri> y
<gary fullett> so if the rally is on light volume
<gary fullett> and price action not as wide as the break was
<gary fullett> this means that th market is bearish
<gary fullett> and yes it would retest the lws
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> I was referring to a mrket that was accumalting
<Peggy> 
<dpr> q
<gary fullett> aftr selling climax on the bean example
<sherri> that help sherry?
<Sherry> yes,thanks
<gary fullett> at differnt time frames volume decrease can be bearish or bullish
<gary fullett> in this case bearish
<gary fullett> but after a selling climax
<gary fullett> and a traidn range bullish
<gary fullett> the stock market has been beari so this action would be bearish
<gary fullett> light volume ralies that is
<gary fullett> yes dpr?
<dpr> i am still a little confused on volume i think, you said the market rallied to 520 on 50k, pulled back and rallied to 515 on 30k, is that cumlative volume or volume at the pirce
<gary fullett> volume that is cumulative fo the day
<gary fullett> not at one price
<gary fullett> what I mena the day where it trades from 520 down to 515 was whole days volume being 50 k
<gary fullett> volume and price action
<gary fullett> tell u Demand or supply for a commodity
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> the willingness to hold it
<gary fullett> or to get rid of it
<gary fullett> it is the trnasfernece of risk
<gary fullett> the cm transfer risk to the public
<gary fullett> the CM is what is called "strong hands"
<gary fullett> the public is called weak hands
<gary fullett> the cm has endless amount time and money
<gary fullett> we dont
<gary fullett> especially at tax time we lack $$$$
<gary fullett> so the quality of rally
<gary fullett> or break
<gary fullett> can be determines by volume and price action
<gary fullett> do u understand this?
<sherri> y
<gary fullett> this is important
<gary fullett> during a trading range the cm buys on the brekas and sells the rallies
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> tries to wear and tear the public
<gary fullett> and has a transference of risk during this range
<gary fullett> would u like to see an example of a maket that is showing this behavior?
<dpr> i guess i would like an example, can you go throught last weeks beans and tell me how you read the volume and price action there?
<gary fullett> I am send ing the chart tomorrow
<gary fullett> dpr I am going in detail of this tomorrow with charts
<dpr> k
<gary fullett> I dont want to discuss it now because we dont have charts in fro of us to see thus'
<gary fullett> it is easier if we have this in front of u
<gary fullett> I dont want to avoid the question
<gary fullett> but I want everyone to understand this
<gary fullett> one chart that I will discuss
<gary fullett> tomorrow is OJ
<gary fullett> support at 100
<gary fullett> 8100 sorry
<gary fullett> ressistance at the 8500
<gary fullett> this is the horizonatl tarding range
<shannon> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> actaully I am sorry the top of the trading range resistance is at 8700 area
User [Gordy /63.88.62.98] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:00:00 EDT 2000
User [mrj /209.16.79.219] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:00:10 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi everybody
<Gordy> Hi gang
<gary fullett> watch these 2 levels outside these 2 ranges the market will move significantly
<sherri> hi guys
<Sherry> hi
<Peggy> hey Gordy, Mr.J
<gary fullett> please look at this chart I will be discussing this tomorrow night
<sherri> OJ?
<Peggy> front month?
<gary fullett> questions on support and resiatnce and horizontal trading ranges
<sherri> all three charts?
<gary fullett> may
User [sal /216.192.235.27] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:01:25 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I think tonights discussion will helpui immnesially
<mrj> hi sal
<gary fullett> I think oj is accumalting but I am waitng for more strenghth
<sherri> hi sal
<sal> hi all
<gary fullett> also gold shows this'
<gary fullett> any questions on tonights class?
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.184] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:02:10 EDT 2000
<Peggy> hi, sal
<sherri> hi marsh
<mrj> hi marsh
User [Jeff Z. /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:02:21 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> please ask any questions?
<lmarsh> Hello mrJ, everyone!
<Peggy> hi, marsh, Jeff, oh heck, hi everyone
<gary fullett> tomorrow night I will be send ing charts
<Jeff Z.> Howdy All
<mrj> hi jeff
<sherri> gary...I think a lot of the accumulation comes on the way down
<gary fullett> yes accumaltion does occur on the way down
<gary fullett> the cm buys breaks
<sherri> then the trading range is to donfuse you
<gary fullett> doesnt buy rallies
User [amos /62.0.147.222] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:03:30 EDT 2000
<sherri> confuse
<lmarsh> grettings amos
<amos> Good Paschal lambs to you all
<mrj> hi amos
<sherri> hey amos
<gary fullett> sherri confused?
<sherri> always gary
<Peggy> Gary, beginners class tomorrow or skip Wednesday
<gary fullett> herri I am not talking about commercial like ADM that hedge
<gary fullett> I am talking about the greed of the cm for profit
<gary fullett> not the heding
<gary fullett> tomoorw night beginners class
User [eric /206.98.11.171] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:05:23 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> at 7pm
<gary fullett> I cant make class on wednesday or thursday
<mrj> hi eric
<gary fullett> but the room will be open
<dpr> k
<sherri> but gary....even tho they are short the board...they have their hans on the physical...that is my point
<eric> hi mrj and everyone
<gary fullett> I hope u have a great night
<sherri> hands
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:06:15 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi dave
<davep> hi everyone<Enter Text Here>
<sherri> hi dave and eric
<gary fullett> I know sheri
<sherri> :-)
<gary fullett> I am not taling at all about the psychsicals here
User [shannon] left forum at Mon Apr 17 20:07:20 EDT 2000
<Sherry> 
<sherri> then what do you call accumulation?
<gary fullett> when the cm knows of an impending up move
<gary fullett> and he buys lets say 100 contracts
<gary fullett> on support
<gary fullett> and on the rally he sells 50 contracts
<gary fullett> he is net long 50 contracts right?
<sherri> y
<gary fullett> so he is accumaulting
<gary fullett> or buying on balance 
<gary fullett> this is accumaultion
<gary fullett> in order to marke up prices later
<sherri> he already had it tho
<dpr> if he buys the breaks, why is vol heavier on the rally?
<gary fullett> so buying on balance within a trading range at support when the cm knows the market will rally
<gary fullett> is accumaltion
<gary fullett> Demand DPR
<gary fullett> the public and funds begin to buy
<gary fullett> he buys when the public and funds sells
<gary fullett> at his price
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> then conducts a rally
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> and epoe, follow
<gary fullett> people
<Gordy> 
<eric> 
<gary fullett> I am not talking about ADM that owns the corn
<Jeff Z.> 
<gary fullett> I am talking futur contracts for greed
<Sherry> because of news
User [Jimbo /63.31.232.19] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:11:25 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> not the hedge aspect
<mrj> hi jimbo
<Jimbo> Hey MrJ
<sherri> that is the biggest part of the accumulation I think gary
<gary fullett> what do u mean?
<sherri> adm, cargil, etc
<amos> Guys, please stop this, this is destructive!!!!
<gary fullett> amos I know but I am trying to explain the CM role
<gary fullett> and sherri is talking about hedging
<gary fullett> there is a misunderstanding
<amos> The moment you try to understand WHO and WHAT the CM is--you lost the game.
<gary fullett> here I understand that ADM is a CM
User [Lavona /207.50.1.149] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:13:52 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> but they are hedgers
<amos> It is like tryig to understand who and what G-d is.
<gary fullett> and this ids differnt than the role of the CM that wyckoff is referring to
<Sherry> 
<amos> WYckoff said to never ask these questions--only try to decipher his footsteps
<gary fullett> sherri has a legimate question
<gary fullett> aboyt ADM being a heder
<gary fullett> I know he did
<gary fullett> and I am trying to clarify
<amos> in the deep snow--volume, price change, support resistance--all other talk is hog (livecattle)wahs
<amos> wash
<gary fullett> that ADM has 2 roles
<gary fullett> to hedge for farmers that is nt wyckoff cm 
<lmarsh> : )
<gary fullett> and the spelative role of know where the market is going 
<gary fullett> the wyckoff cm
<davep> 
<gary fullett> I am trying to answer a question for sherri
<sherri> forget it gary
<gary fullett> because she comes from a farming backround
<gary fullett> she is trying to understand
<amos> Well you know the saying--you can take ...out of the country--but you can't take the country out of Salem
<sherri> ok
<Peggy> 
<sherri> no prob
<eric> 
<sal> 
<mrj> 
<Jimbo> 
<Sherry> 
<Gordy> 
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
<sal> i had same ? sherri...good try
<sherri> no prob
<gary fullett> I can exaplin bettre on the phone okay sal and sherri
<sherri> ok
<gary fullett> i will explain the diffeenrce according to wyckoff
<gary fullett> so any questions?
<gary fullett> how was everyones weekend?
<gary fullett> as I entioedn on the post board
<amos> poorer
<Jimbo> Great, bad sunburn though
<gary fullett> and in the earlier class I will not be here on wednesday and thursday
<gary fullett> the room will of course be open
<amos> I won't be here Wednesday, but I will be here Thursday!
<gary fullett> amos will u be here on ednesday and /or thusday?
<gary fullett> okay
<amos> I won't be here Wednesday, but I will be here Thursday!
<Sherry> 
<Lavona> be back
User [Lavona] left forum at Mon Apr 17 20:21:12 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> so thuesday u have amos all for your selves
<gary fullett> I will have a beginners class tomorow night
<amos> Tuesday?
<gary fullett> yes since I wont be here wednesday
<gary fullett> okay 
<gary fullett> there is amarket that is trading within in arange that I fel needs to be watched
<gary fullett> this is OJ I will send the chart tomorrow
<gary fullett> I want to point something out that I fel important
<gary fullett> to understanding wyckoff
User [Frank /207.230.57.90] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:23:21 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> what cause last fridays large down move in stocks?
<mrj> hi frank'
<mrj> supply
<gary fullett> was it the unemployment report?
<eric> no demand
<lmarsh> word was margin calls,..after the market fell some, calls then more decline
<Frank> hello mr j and every one
<Peggy> hi, Frank.
<sherri> inflation
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> from a wyckoff point of view?
<sal> 
<gary fullett> what was the markets action before the report
<gary fullett> bullish or bearish?
<Frank> too high too long
<Jeff Z.> bc
<gary fullett> dontknow that what that means frank
<gary fullett> my point is
<gary fullett> that the markets "behavior
<gary fullett> over the last week especially was negative
<gary fullett> this "report on CPI"
<gary fullett> was :known by the Cm
<gary fullett> he was short
<gary fullett> and the "news" was a catalyst
<gary fullett> he "knew the report
<gary fullett> and by "watching market action"
<gary fullett> so did we
<gary fullett> now I grant u it is almost imposssible to trade the stock market indices
<eric> 
<gary fullett> but my point was that by watching the 
<gary fullett> market bevavior
<gary fullett> we from a wyckoff point of view could have anticplated
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> the reaction
<gary fullett> and action of friday
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> so we can :know the news before hand by watching market
<gary fullett> action
<amos> 
<gary fullett> that is why we DONT let the news dictate our moves
<eric> 
<gary fullett> we watch the markets actions
<gary fullett> and news should affect our postion
<gary fullett> when the news comes out
<Frank> perhaps you can elaborate gary?
<gary fullett> well the action last week before the report was it bullish or bearish?
<Frank> bullish
<Gordy> 
User [dpr /206.63.203.215] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 20:29:44 EDT 2000
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> it was>?
<gary fullett> not to me it wasnt
<sal> well amos mentioned buying climax a couple weeks ago
<davep> 
<sal> if i remember correctly
<eric> 
<gary fullett> the market was lower all week
<lmarsh> true
<gary fullett> yes he did
<gary fullett> so the market was lower all week
<gary fullett> and the CM distributd
<gary fullett> and firdays reactions was pure money to him
<Frank> was the reason for lower all week the distribution?
<Frank> 
<Frank> 
<gary fullett> 1 sec
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> well the market went to a bc
<Jimbo> 
<gary fullett> so the raly was sold ty the cm
<gary fullett> well the market distrubuted the cm was short
<gary fullett> and the market broke
<gary fullett> but one must look at a longer view as well
<gary fullett> the market in the Nasadw
<gary fullett> had a BC
<gary fullett> then a break then a retest
<gary fullett> and the hard break last week
<gary fullett> my point is by watching market action 
<gary fullett> one can dtermine for the most part
<gary fullett> the foot prints of the cm
<gary fullett> that is role here
<gary fullett> to itenify
<gary fullett> support and resiatnce
<gary fullett> demand and supply
<gary fullett> but that markets beavior told u what the news was
<gary fullett> before hand
<Sherry> 
<Peggy> 
<Frank> 
<Frank> 
<gary fullett> does that make sense?
<amos> 
<lmarsh> yes
<gary fullett> that is why we ont watch news
<Frank> yes
<Sherry> y
<eric> 
<Jimbo> y
<Gordy> y
<Jeff Z.> y
<gary fullett> because if u did one would have gotten kiled being short today
<gary fullett> with that negative report form friday
<gary fullett> Please DONT watch the news
<gary fullett> it will hurt u for the most part
<Frank> now to just have the eyes of descernment
<gary fullett> know trhe news but dont trade on the news
<gary fullett> understand what the market is telling u
<gary fullett> the market talks to u 
<gary fullett> please lesten to it
<gary fullett> amos do u have a commnet on the stock markets actions?
<mrj> 
<amos> I think we are going lower
<Frank> was today an automatic rally, u think?
<amos> Friday's action was either a major sign of weakness, or the begining of a major markdown
<amos> The nest few days are going to be a relatively narrow trading range and the next leg down probably
<amos> we
<amos> will be as sharp as the first leg
<amos> But this is stupid talk. You just have to watch and tell..I have no idea what the market will do
<Frank> warren buffett made 570 mill friday
<gary fullett> I know amos we have to watch
<amos> Warren buffet probably lost 570 mill friday--Frank!!!
<gary fullett> but we also want to undersatnd we were at at realtive to trend
<Frank> made it amos
<gary fullett> and where support and resisatnce is 
<amos> How frank?
<gary fullett> so we can benefit from the markets action
<davep> Amos, Nasdaq support 2750 - ish?
<Jimbo> wb holds no tech or net issues
<eric> 
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> the reason for the question is try to profit from the nasdaq using wyckoff
<Sherry> 
<Frank> not sure, but they was talking about it on cnbc, spoke of a bunch of loosers, then said warren Buffet
<amos> Which support? 50% monthly uptrendline?, channel? point andfigure? dave?
<gary fullett> the news will hurt a wyckoff student
<Frank> of birkshire hathaway made 570 million friday
<sal> let's invite him to our chat room :)
<gary fullett> :) sal
<davep> Support last June-Sep-Oct resistance
<lmarsh> : )
<Peggy> 
<amos> I am looking , Frnak. brb
<gary fullett> we want to undersatnd the action of the stock market amos so we can benefit and understand what the markets says wyckoff wise
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<gary fullett> CNBC 
<gary fullett> Lou Ruykeser
<Jimbo> nasdaq comp or nasdaq 100?
<davep> sorry, July - sep -oct
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<gary fullett> and other financial news shows
<gary fullett> is whta the cm loves
<Frank> I dont trade the news but watch the news to find out what I saw in the market
<davep> nasdaq 100
<gary fullett> if U watch market ction and beahior u will know the news
<gary fullett> in advance
<gary fullett> like that show on TV with the guy whio knows in advance
<gary fullett> what will happen
<Frank> not that good gary
<gary fullett> whats that?
<Sherry> tomorrows newspaper today
<Frank> i am not that good gary
<gary fullett> why not
<eric> 
<amos> Frank, I am looking at BRK.A--it traded bet 55,000 and 60,000 since april 3
<Frank> inexperience
<gary fullett> if we watch the markets action
<gary fullett> we can undersatnd what the news will be
<amos> so the stock did not budge in teh last few days!
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<mrj> 
<gary fullett> my point about friday was that the action leading into the report was negative
<gary fullett> and the "news" was the catylst
<amos> So if the stock did not budge, how did Bershire make 570 mil?
<gary fullett> to lower prices
<gary fullett> to me the market on friday was short term cliamtic
<gary fullett> I posted this
<Frank> All I know is what they said,they did not say how amos
<gary fullett> so the CM saw that the public reacted negatively and covered some shorts 
<amos> I am glad, Frank you believe them. I do not
<gary fullett> amos what they didnt say to frank and to the rest of the people
<gary fullett> is that he started with 1 billion
<Sherry> so 38-50% of weekly move is what you exspect?
<gary fullett> and ended up with 570 million :)olL
<gary fullett> lol
<sal> :)
<davep> 
<gary fullett> that is how to make 570 million start with 1 billion
<gary fullett> ;)
<lmarsh> : )
<Sherry> lol
<gary fullett> yes sherri about 50 percent
<gary fullett> opps wrong sherry there
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<amos> davep 2750 on the weekly chart is support on the composite nasdaq-- I have to see how it trnaslate to the futures.
<gary fullett> any way
<gary fullett> are there any markets that intruques any of u?
<sal> ok,if we had seen all this how could the little guy have traded it when amos first brought it up
<amos> buy a put
<Frank> buffet has more than birkshire, sees candys west coast, green stamps for the west coast supermarkets,
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<gary fullett> the probleme with options is that they are overpriced
<amos> Frank, Berkshire Hathaway is the holding company for all those
<gary fullett> and execution is not good
<Frank> geico, news paper, the washington post apartof it any way
<gary fullett> it doesnt matter what he made
<gary fullett> we didnt make 570 million
<sal> how bout shorting qqq/ spy?
<gary fullett> that is possible 
<Sherry> 
<Frank> i lost 102 today
<davep> Amos, I see more like 2650 on Jun Nasdaq 100, looking at weekly
<gary fullett> but from a commodity stand point it wsas more difficult
<gary fullett> in stocks it is easir to use options
<sal> ok
<gary fullett> 102 frank?
<Frank> dollars
<eric> 
<Lavona> thank you
<gary fullett> is there any charts that u would like me to send in out chat tomorrow?
<amos> Well, davep that is 900 handles for you .
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> I will be sending some grains
<Sherry> long term e-mini
<gary fullett> OJ
<gary fullett> weekly?
<gary fullett> or monthly or daily?
<davep> Jun Can $
<Lavona> Nasdaq weekly
<Sherry> weekly
<Frank> since sow beans did not go my direction I tried to day trade it its direction
<lmarsh> GE ?
<gary fullett> k 
<sal> question please
<gary fullett> we can discuss a stock from a wyckoff point of view
<Lavona> i don't have 1
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> okay sal
<sal> if a commodity doesnt react to another market can we learn anything from that?
<eric> stock RAD
<lmarsh> thanks
<sal> ex. with stocks down , wouldnt swiss have moved more,
<gary fullett> what do u mean sal?
<sal> since it didnt does that show weakness or
<gary fullett> amos doesnt like to omapre like that but I do
<sal> have no relationship
<amos> Oh, NOOOOOOO
<amos> This was a wonderful question SAL,
<gary fullett> generally what u will see if the stock market (US)
<gary fullett> the curriecnicies will raly
<gary fullett> amos u have a thought :)
<amos> This is no difference from any relative strength study that WYckoff is advocating.
<Sherry> 
<amos> If Gold does not move when it "shoulod" that implies inherent weakness.
<gary fullett> amos I thought u said u didnt watch those relationships when it was brought up before
<amos> The relative action , or inaction of commodities to their "normal" behavior is a very important piece of data for solving some puzzles.
<amos> ( I am having a de javu. We had this discussion a few months ago)
<Frank> well thank u amos
<gary fullett> you mnetioedn that one doesnt have to do with the other several weeks ago
<gary fullett> I believe that money flows fom sector to sector stocks to commoditeies
<amos> Gary, I am agianst trading the stock market versus gold or bonds with the "normal " interpretation
<gary fullett> commodities to commodties
<amos> that bonds represent "inflation" and gold represents "inflation".
<amos> This is incorrect--
<gary fullett> I satnd crrected
<gary fullett> then we think the same :)
<gary fullett> stand corrected
<amos> But if there is some kind of flight to quality--and gold is not moving--it tells you that at that moment
<amos> gold is not"quality",.
<mrj> 
<amos> You can sit , Gary
<gary fullett> but on the other hand gold didnt break hard when the stock market had a strong rally today
<gary fullett> :)
<amos> sal, your question was very important and we should talk more about it
<gary fullett> please do amos.....
<gary fullett> explain....
<amos> now?
<gary fullett> yes we have some time
<gary fullett> and I think that it is important for the months to come
<amos> Look, I will explain it from a broader point of view.
<gary fullett> k
<Frank> I think grains reacted because of the perceived stockmarket buying oportunity today
<sal> k
<amos> Since we are saying here that the "correct" way to look at the market is almost
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<lmarsh> 
<amos> oppostive from the way you look at any other business--you have to invert your emotions as Jesse Livermore says
<eric> 
<amos> The same emotions that help empire builders build empires--hope and greed-- will kill you in the market if you do not invert them
<amos> If you are the inventor of a battery and the market does not turn on to your invention for many years--you keep plugging, you keep
<amos> investing in it. You lose and lose a nd lose. Then one day Sears comes in and buys your invention and tyou become
<amos> and "ionstant" millionaire.
<amos> In the market place--the mo0monet you have a loss--you must run. Your first stoploss
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<Frank> the eveready bunny
<amos> is your best stoploss, do not ever add to losers etc etc etc.
<amos> So?
<Lavona> The harder you work the "luckier you are".
<amos> What is a poor guy/gal to do?
<amos> Well....
<amos> One trick is to invert normal thinking
<amos> Insead of asking" What should the market do?"
<amos> Ask the oppostive question:
<amos> "What should the market NOT do, if I am right?"
<amos> Seems innocuous. But it is not.
<Frank> what should I do?
<amos> By just reversing the questions you ask--you already put yourself in another camp.
<Frank> thanks qamos, very encouraging
<amos> So if the market "should" do something that either everyone agrees, or commonsense agrees
<amos> or economists tell you in the gun and butter courses(econ 101) etc.
<amos> --then if the market DOES NOT do that--you get some important information.
<amos> This information does not necessarily leads to a trade!!!
<amos> a trade is generated when you have a signal--which is back to the mundane support, resistanc
<Sherry> 
<amos> jump acorss the creek, thrust...you name it.
<amos> But it tells you what NOT to do.
<amos> if gold is supposed to rally when the stock market crashes--and it does not--then smart money
<amos> is not going into gold--DO NOT TOUCH!!!
<amos> IT may come to life after a while--but do not jump into a commodtiy becuase "it should"
<amos> Is this clear at all?
<Frank> often it is just as important too be out of the market as in the market
<lmarsh> yes amos, very good illustration
<mrj> y
<amos> Being out instead of in is important in many situations , Frank
<sal> thanks :)
<amos> On the other hand--if the market should not rally and it rallies--that means that someone knows
<amos> something--and you better go with them even if it violates "common sense."
<amos> In Israel, common sense was the brand name for a bug killer.
<lmarsh> : )
<Frank> well reid kills them dead
<amos> Professional traders KNOW that when a move does not make sense--they will make money.
<amos> The public will continue to say--why,.it does not make sense--yes, but it makes money
<amos> This is why fundamental analysis can sometimes kill you. All the reports
<amos> are bearish and the market rallies---BUY BUY BUY
<sal> corn in january was like that
<amos> There are rains--you have to sell beans--B.S>
<Sherry> 
<Lavona> 
<amos> So, back to your original question, sal. If a market does not do what it is "supposed" to do
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 21:19:24 EDT 2000
<amos> (As if we know)--then this is important tecfhnical information.
<Frank> better have been more rain than we got here
<mrj> 
<amos> I will work on the drought, Frank, for you.
<sal> thanks for explanation
<amos> sal, I did not explain anything. You still have to do the homework on the individual
<amos> commodity to determine the trade on its own merit!
<amos> Look at beans.
<amos> May had teste the 526 3 times.
<amos> Jule I do nto know
<sal> just cant take a compliment huh? :)
<Frank> the failed indicator thatr swager talked about
<amos> Novemeber beanse stopped at 552, then poked the stops at 549.
<amos> So they behave a little differently--but they give you each, its own story and points of entry and protection.
<amos> sal, compliments won't make you rich, only hard work. I do appreciate a good complimetn, tho.
<sal> :)
<eric> 
<lmarsh> 
<Lavona> :)
<amos> The most important thing that we are still not doing inthis class--is that we do not harp on repeating imortant points of support and resistacne, entery signals and stoploss
<amos> and updating them regularly.
<Frank> I agree amos
<mrj> amen
<amos> Gary went to the dogs?
<Lavona> We can start that after everyone is back from holiday
User [gary fullett /171.217.71.83] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 21:25:56 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> sorry I lost u all
<lmarsh> speak & he shall appear?
<Frank> a safe entry is worth its weight in gold
<mrj> lol
<gary fullett> were u talking about me?
<sal> brb
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<davep> 
<amos> Morgen Morgen nur nicht heute, Zaggen alle foule loite
<lmarsh> huh?
<amos> That is awkward German that says: Tomorrow, Tomorrow, only not today==say all the lazy people.
<Frank> amos just has to show off his use of several languages
<gary fullett> he is a multi liguist
<amos> the man with the golden tongue
<lmarsh> I am getting an education here!!
<gary fullett> :)
<amos> wipe that smile, Gary
<davep> & i thot Morgan was a fraulein's name "morgen, morgen, 1 more day etc :-)
<amos> They probably were of German decent
<lmarsh> I thought morgan meant "morning"
<amos> yes, Gut Morgen is Good morning
<lmarsh> "Guten Morgen"
<lmarsh> oops
<amos> Danke
<lmarsh> Guten Nacht, here ,..I guess??
<mrj> `good night all
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<Sherry> intraday pivot bar in corn as it retests previous lows of 248, pivot on low volumn
<amos> Do watch June gold above 286--it may be a daily thrust--ought to buy with a 5-6 dollars stop.
<Lavona> good nite mrj
<davep> amos, do u follow canadian $ ? Seems as if we rarely talk currencies
<Frank> You know I am sitting here listening to a family of whiper-wills that I was sitting here listening too as 
<gary fullett> I have a phone call that I need to tak so I will see u all tomorrow night
<Lavona> nite everyone and thanks
<gary fullett> I will be sending charts tomorow
<gary fullett> oos night all
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<lmarsh> ok Gary,..thanks
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User [sal /216.192.229.16] joined forum at Mon Apr 17 21:33:47 EDT 2000
<Frank> a boy with a one digit age
<eric> 
<amos> I am still here--any important subject?
<lmarsh> Hogs???
<amos> need to study monthly chart. what do you see?
<lmarsh> pas
<lmarsh> oops
<davep> we almost never discuss currencies, e.g. CD Why?
<amos> the weekly june looks like a clear uptrend. No buying climax of sorts.
<lmarsh> gimme a sec, but I was thinking last week that it was stalling, jumped gun & did some probing, no go.
<amos> everyweek it is closing at the high. I do not know where major resistance is, tho
<Frank> lhmo are still in an uptrend marsh
<lmarsh> yes Frank, you are correct. I made a bad trade.
<amos> always go to www.elliottwaveinsights.com and look at clean monthly charts, if he updates them
<lmarsh> ok
<sal> brb
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<amos> no volume tho, just good support resistance and "correct" continuation charts.
<amos> the hogs refuse to download, Damn Murphy
<lmarsh> on monthly, next resistance seems to be around 6300ish
<lmarsh> 
<Sherry> 
<amos> I see daily continuation chart at 69 already?
<amos> june hogs at 74?
<lmarsh> yes
<lmarsh> 7435 close on june
<amos> I will study the chart and try to give an answer tomorrow. I hate to spend a minute and pass judgement.
<amos> What do you want to do, buy? sell?
<Frank> as for lean hogs june I would expect 6704 to show a down trend
<amos> I cannot argue.
<lmarsh> I don't think I want to buy,...was wanting to sell, when a signal is given. Market seems to be high, for now.
<amos> It finally came--the next spot in hogs is 80!
<amos> that is the monthly creek from 97
<amos> we are going higher!~!!
<Frank> I figure 7853 amos
<amos> Frank, that is a wonderful number
<amos> I see you all are quite--silence of the lams?
<amos> lambs
<Frank> it is seven eights of the last major move amos
<lmarsh> getting that time isn't it, this week
<amos> this is the eating of the lambs--quite different, althoug, lechter.......
<eric> 
<Frank> lamb sir too you boy
<amos> Ok, folks, if you insist on silence--I shall go be quite in bed
<lmarsh> hogs may go higher, don't know
<amos> hogs are going higher!
<Frank> wash your feet first
<amos> Yes sir
<amos> gn all
<lmarsh> ok...!!
<eric> gn amos
<lmarsh> nite amos
<lmarsh> thanks
<davep> nite amos
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