User [gary fullett /152.202.189.52] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:05:55 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> sorry for the delay
<shannon>-><Peggy> she's dancing kinda, ya she's awake
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
<Peggy> yo, Teach
<dpr> hi
<Jack> its ok
<gary fullett> thanks
<shannon> hi gary
<gary fullett> any questions?
<Sherry> hi Gary
<gary fullett> okay lets begin
<Peggy> only a million, but I'll dole them out one at a time. Okay?
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> Okay
<gary fullett> we will continue on the wavr
<gary fullett> wave
<gary fullett> the uptrend that turns into the downtrend
User [chris /63.14.212.74] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:08:42 EDT 2000
<Peggy> hi, Chris
<gary fullett> a market will continue to rally as long as the news is kept being fed
<gary fullett> freindly or bullish news
<gary fullett> but when the Cm composite man senses
<chris> hi Peggy and everyone
<gary fullett> that the news is becoming too bullish
<gary fullett> or that the public is good and long
<gary fullett> he begins to unload his long position
<gary fullett> on the rally
<gary fullett> why does he sell the rally?
<gary fullett> because he can get
<gary fullett> the prices that he wants
<gary fullett> when ecveryone is bidding prices higher
<gary fullett> he is able to sell at great prices
<gary fullett> when he begins to sell
<gary fullett> this is called Preliminary supply
<gary fullett> it is the first time thru the whole rally that the CM
<gary fullett> begins to sell in earnsest
<shannon> 
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> what does this selling due to the market?
<gary fullett> this cause a quick down move
<gary fullett> because the wek longs or the last longs that get on board cant absorb the selling
<gary fullett> that the CM sells
<gary fullett> the market breaks,
<gary fullett> it will break to support
<gary fullett> many many traders
<gary fullett> will try and buy this break
<gary fullett> because the market is in an upturn
<gary fullett> and they are condition to buy 
<gary fullett> so the cm who may have 1000 contracts
<gary fullett> may sell 300 on the Preliminary supply (PS)
<gary fullett> and he still has 700 contracts left
<gary fullett> now on the break the public buys as not to miss the move
<gary fullett> the news is still bullish
<gary fullett> and a fervor to buy
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> occurs
<gary fullett> this is the GREED
<Peggy> 
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> that sets in they will "miss the markets rally"
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> I compare this to the Nasdaq in Jan and feb
<gary fullett> all the news was bullish
<gary fullett> that the internet "was th in thing"
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> and that everyone should own internet stock
<gary fullett> so as u can see it is easy to sell in this enviroment
<gary fullett> this cause a wide price range
<gary fullett> and heaviest volume
<gary fullett> on the whole move
<gary fullett> this buying panic
<gary fullett> is called a Selling Climax (SC)
<chris> 
<gary fullett> I am so sorry this is called a BUYING CLIMAX (BC)
<gary fullett> not a selling cliamx
<gary fullett> okay?
<dpr> k
<Jack> k
<shannon> k
<Peggy> k
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> does this make sense?
<Jack> y
<Peggy> y
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> at this point it is in the news how bullish thenmarket is and there is no top in sight
<shannon> so far
<gary fullett> great
<gary fullett> so after this buying cliamx
<gary fullett> the composite sells the rest of his long position
<Sherry> on 1 leg up?
<gary fullett> at this level to the CM
<gary fullett> he sells two time vigoursly
<gary fullett> on the PS and the BC
<Jack> explain two time vigoursly please
<gary fullett> so to the CM the market has now turned down
<Peggy> I'm confused are Ps and BC the same?
<gary fullett> well he sellis at the preliminary supply
<gary fullett> and he sells on the buying cliamx
<gary fullett> NO peggy
<gary fullett> prelimary supply is when the market is moving up
<gary fullett> and the CM begns to sell part of his long position
<gary fullett> not all of it
<gary fullett> then after the pullback
<gary fullett> the public buys in a panic
<gary fullett> and he sells the rest of his postion
<gary fullett> on the buying climax
<Jack> I got it now
<gary fullett> Dies that help jack and peggy
<Jack> y
<gary fullett> does not dies :)
<Peggy> no
<Peggy> the downward move is the PS
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> the first selling that the CM does
<gary fullett> I am sorry you are correct peggy
<gary fullett> the prelimary supply
<gary fullett> is abrevaited
<gary fullett> PSY
<gary fullett> NOT PS
<gary fullett> I am sorry
<gary fullett> PS is prelimary suport
<gary fullett> PSY is before the buying climax
<gary fullett> PSY is Preliminary Supplt
<gary fullett> supply
<Peggy> okay. The PSY is the first major downward move?
<gary fullett> PS is Preliminary support
<gary fullett> yes, it is the first time that the CM sells his longs 
<gary fullett> on the uptrend
<Peggy> then the BC is where?
<Peggy> kkkkk, i see it
User [dpr /206.63.203.217] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:26:42 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> BC is after the the PSY
<Sherry> 
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> if u look at the chart where i wrote
<gary fullett> prelimainry supply
<gary fullett> the first highest move up
<gary fullett> is actaully th BC
<gary fullett> where i wrote Buying climax upthrust
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> this is aprt of the BC climax
<gary fullett> I will explain when we get there though
<gary fullett> so the market is at new highs
<gary fullett> like the Nasdaq at 5 000
<gary fullett> what happens
<gary fullett> the market pukkback 
<gary fullett> and develops
<gary fullett> pullsback
<gary fullett> a trading range why?
<gary fullett> because the market needs to develop
<gary fullett> cause
<gary fullett> remember this?
<Peggy> strength for a move?
<gary fullett> it just cant go straight down
<gary fullett> the CM needs time to prepare for a move
<gary fullett> yes peggy
<gary fullett> rememebr the CM just unloaded
<gary fullett> his long position
<gary fullett> no where did I say that he got short
<gary fullett> so he must get short
<gary fullett> but since the news is vry bullish here
<gary fullett> he cant move the market down
<gary fullett> on that much bullish news
<gary fullett> so he must prepare and get short
<gary fullett> then eventually give some negative news or bearish news
<shannon> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> so the market eneters a trading
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> range inorder to sell on balance
<gary fullett> this selling in a range on balance by the CM is called DISTRIBUTION
<gary fullett> If it is buying on balance this is called ACCUMULTION
<gary fullett> when I say sell on balance
<gary fullett> I mean the cm within a trading range
<gary fullett> may sell 50 contracts
<gary fullett> but 20
<gary fullett> sell 20 and buy 30
<gary fullett> so he is on balance or net short 20 contracts
<gary fullett> did you ever hear that Goldman Sahs
<gary fullett> Sachs
<gary fullett> bought 500 wheat
<gary fullett> they may have sold 700 the previous day
<gary fullett> the appearance is that they are lng
<gary fullett> but in reality they are short
<gary fullett> so when u read that "someone is buying or sellingin a amrket"
<gary fullett> you never now their net position
<gary fullett> they buy and sell continously
<Peggy> sneaky
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> as to confuses the public as to the direction to the market
<gary fullett> if you ever get a chance to go to the floor of an exchange
<gary fullett> u will see that a large firm will bid ( or try to buy)
<gary fullett> 1000 contracts
<gary fullett> do they want to buy
<gary fullett> no they donr they want to sell at a higher prices
<gary fullett> so the pit traders will bid up prices
User [chris /63.14.212.74] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:38:03 EDT 2000
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> or buy
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> and this will make the large firms effort to sell easy
<gary fullett> so they are constantly feeling out the market
<gary fullett> so the cm within this trading range 
<gary fullett> is selling more contracts then he is buying
<gary fullett> so he can get short
<gary fullett> and to distribute
<gary fullett> for the pending down move
<gary fullett> this is all manipulation
<Peggy> is it possible to see this on the volume?
<gary fullett> in order to confuse us the trader
<gary fullett> yes we as wyckoff students
<gary fullett> we watch price action and volume
<gary fullett> so "we can see this"
<gary fullett> I mentioned this in the other class
<gary fullett> about the nasdaq
<gary fullett> at 5k
<gary fullett> it rallied
<gary fullett> to 5 k
<gary fullett> broke
<gary fullett> then retested 5k
<gary fullett> then broke to 3650 area
<gary fullett> when a market
<gary fullett> is ina trading range
<gary fullett> and then pops above the range
<gary fullett> and finishes back within the range
<gary fullett> this is called an "UPTHRUST
<gary fullett> it is designed to take out the shorts
<gary fullett> and catch the buy stops
<gary fullett> when the CM seees that the news will start to become bearish
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> he then can move the market down
<gary fullett> this is called the amrk down phase and the downrtrend begins
<gary fullett> rememebr I mentioend
<gary fullett> the trading range
<Jack> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> well the bottom of this range is support
<gary fullett> and if the CM wants to move the market down
<gary fullett> he will
<gary fullett> sell at that support
<gary fullett> and the volume will pick up
<gary fullett> and the range will be wider
<gary fullett> this break of support
<gary fullett> is called a Break thru the Ice
<gary fullett> it is the opposite of the jump over the creek
<gary fullett> this weakness
<gary fullett> is also called a sign of weakness (SOW)
<gary fullett> not the pig sow
<gary fullett> and the down turn begins
<gary fullett> but it begins when the CM has sold or distributed his position
<gary fullett> and now is ready to sit back and enjoys his profits
<Sherry> 
<Jack> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> the market will continue down
User [dpr /206.63.203.217] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:46:58 EDT 2000
User [Jeff Z. /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:46:58 EDT 2000
<shannon> 
<shannon> 
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> this the CM begins to buy in his shorts
<gary fullett> and this leads to the Prelimary support
<gary fullett> or PS
<gary fullett> and that is where I began on Monday
<gary fullett> any questions?
<gary fullett> does this make sense
<Jack> n
<Peggy> what do you mean "buy in his shorts"
<Jack> y
<gary fullett> next week I am providing charts for u to see this
<gary fullett> he has distributed or sold short
<gary fullett> in the trading range right?
<Peggy> y
<gary fullett> so when he buys back his postions that he sold
<gary fullett> that is buying in his shorts
<gary fullett> not underwear
<Peggy> you mean he is liquidating, taking profits
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> exactly
<Peggy> the buy back threw me
<gary fullett> sorry
<Jack> this will cause a pullback to the up side?
<gary fullett> when he buys back the short position
User [Jimbo /63.11.38.22] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:50:27 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> this causes an up move temeporaily
<gary fullett> this is the Preliamry support
<gary fullett> yes corrct jack
<Peggy>-><shannon> to every contract there is a buy and sell
<Jack> yes thanks
<chris> 
<gary fullett> so we just went thru a full cycle
<gary fullett> this happens on a 5 minute chart
<gary fullett> as well as a monthly chart
<gary fullett> I follow this on a 5 minute chart for clients
<gary fullett> some of my clienst are longer term
<gary fullett> some day trade
<gary fullett> but the wave is the same
<gary fullett> different time references
<dpr> q
<gary fullett> yes please
<dpr> so tick volume is the same as contract volume
<shannon> 
<dpr> or they can be read the same i mean
<gary fullett> yes
<dpr> k
<gary fullett> tick volume is simialr to actaul volume
<Sherry> 
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> but there can be a differnce
<gary fullett> do u know how tick volume is cacluated?
<dpr> each time the price changes correct?
<Sherry> n
<dpr> is one tick
<gary fullett> each exchange
<gary fullett> assigns a value to when the market makes a move 
<Jimbo> y, give me toll free # again
<gary fullett> like corn moves in quarter point moves 1 /4
User [Jack] left forum at Wed Apr 12 19:56:37 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> so the board of trades say that each tick or minimum move corn
<gary fullett> is 100 contracts
<gary fullett> so everytime
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<gary fullett> corn moves a tick it is assign a volumr
<gary fullett> by the board of trade
User [Jeff Z. /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:57:31 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> this may not be 100 percent accuarte but pretty close
<Peggy> 
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<gary fullett> the actauk volume wont be known till the next morning when trades clear
<gary fullett> the tick volume is an estimated volume
User [mrj /206.251.171.216] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 19:58:46 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> do u see this differnece
<Sherry> so is each 1/4 point a different 3 or are they the same for say a day?
<gary fullett> generally they are close
<mrj> hi everyone
<Peggy> hi, mrj
<gary fullett> they are the same
<dpr> right so you can read the tick vol at the end of the day and be pretty close to the real vol
<Peggy> good class this evening, Mrj
<dpr> and not have to wait til the next day
<dpr> great
<mrj> great Gary' "da man"
<gary fullett> yes DPR
<gary fullett> so it may be 100 contracts
<gary fullett> one week
<Peggy> does that tick volume number stay there after the market closes?
<gary fullett> but 200 the next week
<gary fullett> the exchanges
<gary fullett> changes
<gary fullett> when they see volume pick up
User [SteveF /209.214.193.110] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:01:31 EDT 2000
User [Guest /152.201.166.44] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:01:37 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> tick volume can change daily if the volum picks up
<gary fullett> the excange tries to be accurate
<mrj> hi steve & guest
<gary fullett> because floor traders rely on thi info too
<Sherry> the scale changes then?
<SteveF> Hey ya'll
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> it changes
<gary fullett> but generally not too often
<Peggy> hi, Steve
<gary fullett> it changes when there is a marked increase or decrease
<gary fullett> in volume
<Sherry> drives me buggy whenit changes alot
<gary fullett> okay?
<gary fullett> me too :)
<gary fullett> any otherquestions?
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User [amos /62.0.146.155] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:03:37 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I hope you understood tonight
<gary fullett> if not I can answer any questions
<gary fullett> either by email
<gary fullett> or
<gary fullett> by phone
<gary fullett> next week I will be sending charts to reflect this
<gary fullett> so we will be getting more into the practical
<gary fullett> and live charts
User [Lavona /207.50.1.147] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:04:52 EDT 2000
<SteveF> hello amos
<gary fullett> this will conclude the beginers class
User [sherri /207.112.162.174] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:05:06 EDT 2000
User [eric /206.98.11.151] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:05:11 EDT 2000
<amos> hi
<gary fullett> I hope this helped
<Lavona> hello everyone
<Sherry> Hi amos
<gary fullett> I will begin the intermediate class now
<gary fullett> please stay new comers
<gary fullett> I feel this class will help u as well
<eric> good evening
<Guest> Gary what do you think of the elliot waves?
<sherri> hi folks
<gary fullett> I dont follow them
<Guest> is that any helpfull
<gary fullett> any commnets amos or fibo on elliot wave?
<Guest> how about the different retracemnet levels
<Guest> like at 30 %
<Guest> and 61%
<amos> Don't start with me on that!
<gary fullett> wyckoff believed in 50 percent retracements
<Guest> like we to 30 % iin the nasdaq soon
<gary fullett> yes I believe in retracements
<dpr> yes thank you
<gary fullett> Great dpr
<Lavona> There are always at least 2 counts with elliot if you have the time to commit to a 2 or 3 yr study might help you
<gary fullett> amos what do u feel about retracements?
<gary fullett> I asked fibo and this person isnt here :)
<Guest> 50 % in the nasdaq seems a bit too much though
<gary fullett> why is that guest?
<amos> I cannot answer this question without getting too philosophical.
<Guest> feeling, could be wrong
<gary fullett> just scratch the surface then
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> watch the market dont feel
<mrj> 
<Jeff Z.> 
<chris> 
<gary fullett> amos what did wyckoff feel about retracements?
<Guest> let's see a double bottom, and a confirmation 
<Guest> of changing trend here again
<amos> Wyckoff did not feel , he watched the market
<Guest> see when other indicators turn
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> I know that
<Guest> like MACD and Stochastic
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.198] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:10:45 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> I dont watch those indicators
<mrj> hi marsh
<lmarsh> hi mrj, everone
<sherri> hi marsh
<gary fullett> I use 50, percent retracements
<gary fullett> anyway,
<gary fullett> I wanted amos
<gary fullett> to speak on Linda radske rules
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:12:05 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> as they related to wyckoff
<amos> I will answer these questions in a general form.
<amos> Whenever you relate to the market as a mathematical animal
<amos> you are treating it as a market that is rulled by a mathematical model,
<amos> It so happened that mathematics is an "accurate" science. The market is not.
User [Frank /207.230.57.13] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:13:52 EDT 2000
<amos> if it was--the there would be no market because expert mathmaticians would have rulled it.
<mrj> hey Frank
<amos> I divide, in general the trading world to 2 sections:
<amos> External and Internal.
<Frank> hello mr J and every one
<sherri> hi f
<eric> 
<amos> All external methods believe that they can"Impose" a certain model--be it Elliott,. Delta, Stuchastic, Macd, "younameit" and
<amos> the market will respond.
<Peggy> 
<amos> The internal method believes that you can only deduct market probable action based on its own action. Wyckoff is the king of internals (thol he was
<amos> not an internist himself, he had his own doctor)
<davep> :-)<Enter Text Here>
<amos> So, according to Wyckoff--if the CM wants to use certain model followers to his advantage--he
<amos> will let the market stop at 38% or 62 % or ADX or MACD etc.
<amos> The price which, as Linda raschke says, is faster than any derivative--is as good a teller of
<amos> ;future behavior as any.
<sherri> 
<amos> If you add to it the volume--you get another "internal " indicator.
<amos> Notice that you can cheat on price--you can never cheat on volume.
<amos> Is all this philoso[hical enoug?
<SteveF> lol
<Peggy> more than I want!!!
<lmarsh> ya!
<amos> With your permission, I would like to talk a moment about the DOW.
<Peggy> easier to stick to Wyckoff
<amos> Remember, I mentioned last night how significant was the 11418 level?
<Frank> amos u was just gettin good
<dpr> 
<Lavona> y
<amos> the point I want toi make is how there is little connection between identifying important points of support
<amos> and resistance in the market and making money!!!
<amos> The market cam to 11410 and dropped sharply, then it came up and took all the stops at 11425 and then went
<amos> south in earnest.
<amos> Just haveing a point in the market--does not gurantee you will make money.
<amos> Just haveing a good strategy--=is not enough.
<amos> You need also very good tactics, in order to make it here.
<amos> If you sold the 11410 where was your stop? probably right above 11418. Becuase you would say to yourself,
<amos> If itwas a bying limax--then the market should not go above it.
<amos> Guess what. WHO SAID A BUYING CLIMAX HAS TO BE IN ONE BAR?
<amos> Who said the sahpe ah
<amos> has to be clear to everyone?
<Lavona> clear
<amos> why not make a little "variation?"
<Frank> saphe?
<Peggy> shape
<amos> If you are not prepared for the market to play with the best of knowledge you have-- you are not a good trader.
<amos> So what is a good trader to do?
<amos> Here come Paul Tudor Jones.
<amos> What makes this guy such a genius>?
<amos> he knows more than us?
<mrj> 
<amos> Balloneny
<chris> 
<amos> What is uncle Ely Tullis taught him was this:
<amos> He said: I can be wrong once, I can be wrong Twice, I can be wrong thrice--and then I double my money on the fourth time!!!
<eric> 
<SteveF> : )
<amos> This is a quote from him (or some other wizard) but listen carefully to the wisdom.
<amos> He says: I know that the market can toy with me.
<amos> I must be ready mentally to cope with this.
<Frank> learn from your mistakes
<amos> I will do it by "PROBING".
User [Jimbo /63.24.243.53] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:25:49 EDT 2000
<amos> Probing is a trading technique.
<davep> 
<Sherry> 
<amos> It says: I think that my analysis is right. I will try to get into the market several times with a SMALL stop.
<amos> But I won't lose the move. I won't let the market fool me.
<sherri> 
<Jeff Z.> 
<amos> I f you are mentally prepared to such a "what --if" then you can win.
<amos> Has nothing to do with market savvy, but has all to do with the "art of war"
<amos> any questions?
<SteveF> I think i got it.
<lmarsh> interesting, yes!
<Frank> how many time does a price have to be hit in order to be a safe resistance
<Frank> hit and hold?
<amos> 3.14 Frank, or 6.18
<amos> If I knew the number, I would not be here
<amos> It is the idea, not spoonfeeding it
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<sherri> hi fibo
<mrj> hi fibo
<davep> hi fibo
<amos> Another important point about what happened today.
<Peggy> hi, Fibo
<eric> hi fibo
<Jimbo> hi fibo
<Frank> hi Fibo
<fibo> hello everyone
<amos> If you noticed, I was sitting here while all of you were asleep.
<amos> Watched the market and could not figure anything.
<Sherry> pip
<amos> I knew that we areclose to something but could not figure.
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<amos> Then I posted on our board the I.D.K=N.M.T thingy
<amos> did you read it?
<sherri> y
<eric> y
<fibo> subject
<davep> y
<mrj> y
<lmarsh> Yes very good
<Sherry> not yet
<Jeff Z.> y
<Jimbo> y amos wise beyond years
<Lavona> y
<amos> general philosophy, zen budhism, fibo
<fibo> lol
<Peggy> y, good stuff
<Frank> back shortly
<amos> Lo and Behold--it took a few hours and voila the market spoke
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<amos> Mind you --the reversal in the CRB cash- is significant beyond repraoch!!!
<fibo> buy grains?
<amos> The commodities markets should rally now with vengence!!!
<amos> Yes, but nov beans
<Peggy> you left out a whole bunch in those two statements, Amos
<Guest> why is that
<amos> Why is what guest?
<Guest> rally....
User [Frank /207.230.57.13] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:33:47 EDT 2000
<amos> because the Crb cash for all practical pur[pses had a "spring of the long term uptrendline.
<amos> This is a very bullish behavio.
<gary fullett> interesting the market looked so bad yesterday and good today
<gary fullett> that is why it is important to identify market behavior
<gary fullett> and that we feel that it is accumaultion in commoddities
<Sherry> 
<sherri> 
<Lavona> 
<eric> 
<davep> 
<amos> I hope y'all understand the difference between
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<mrj> 
<Peggy> 
<lmarsh> 
<amos> understanding market behavior, (Wyckoff or any other method and the "what-IF " paradigm?
<SteveF> 
<Frank> when may corn shows a solid resistrance ceiling at 225 it will be time to enter short
<chris> 
<amos> Frank, why are you talking short when we say that you should only think bullish these markets?
<Frank> because all my indicators for corn is down
<chris> ok
<amos> But your indicators are external and according to Wyckoff we are watching a long term accumulation?
User [gary fullett /152.202.189.52] joined forum at Wed Apr 12 20:41:14 EDT 2000
<amos> BTW, I have no problem with different views of the market--remember that at EVERY price one side is Wrong!!!!
<fibo> 
<Peggy> 
<amos> But, to talk about stochastic, or any model in a WYckoff class is a waste of energy
<Frank> I think that corn in the long run is going to go up but at present it is headed south
<sherri> 
<Lavona> amen
<amos> Frank, I have no problem with you view of the market. If you think it is going down--that is fine.
<lmarsh> 
<amos> But if you use a different model than what we use here--What is the use? YOu cannot trade with two different models.
<amos> (although I would take Cindy Crawford and Claudia SHiffer together anyday)
<Sherry> no cieling on interday corn
<Lavona> lol
<SteveF> If you go to a fine Italian resturaunt, don't order a cheeseburger.
<lmarsh> uh yeah me too!!
<Frank> I am talking Gann and the formation of aa triangle. hell I don't know any more about a stotastic than a pig about sunday
<amos> pig sunday and two juesish teachers
<amos> Jewish
<sherri> 
<davep> 
<eric> 
<Peggy> 
<Frank> the pig on sunday was my grand mothers saying
<amos> Grandmos cant be wrong
<chris> 
<amos> I suggested to Gary that we talk a little about the 50 rules of trading that Linda B R
<Frank> not when we are talking stostastics and my knowledge
<amos> posted in one of her 9 articles. If people are interested--I would like to take a few of them and
<amos> see how they appear or translate in Wyckoff terms?
<eric> great
<lmarsh> please do
<Lavona> good
<fibo> yes post them all
<davep> yes
<Frank> Yes by all means Amos
<amos> OK:
<amos> rules 6 and 7 state:
<amos> :Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news
<amos> rule 7:"
<amos> Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low"
<amos> Please ponder these two rules and kindly offer your interpretation from a WYckoff point of view.
<amos> Let us see
<amos> if we can come to a modicum of concensus here.
<fibo> rule #7 sounds like a Gann rule also
<SteveF> #7= buy strength and sell weakness.
<amos> shall we call you fibFranco, fibo?
<Frank> the buy high and sell low is the breakout stragey that we use in wyckof when the rectangle is ,
<mrj> good news for grains is that rain forecast have been downgraded so we should sell?
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<fibo> whatever amos
<Sherry> 
<lmarsh> Well, crude for example. News was in talk of higher prices since the Gulf,..& lo Gary called it a "BC". Hit it on the head.
<Frank> broken 
<eric> rule 7 is buy after jump over creek
<eric> rule 6 is buy at SC
<amos> Most usually bad news will create panic if they come at the end of a long decline
<amos> so that will be a selling climax.
<amos> If it is NO t a selling climax and you buy bad news--the market will continue to go down.
<sherri> #6...the news is already in the market
<amos> So rule 6 applyes when an END of a move occurs.
<fibo> terminal shakeout or spring
<amos> While rule 7 is the Jump across the creek, or the markup stage.
<amos> You see, you cannot apply rules 6 and 7 at the same phases of the market--
<amos> it is correct to use rule 6 if you know that you reached an extreme
<amos> but while in a trend, mark up or down--then buying higher high or selling lower low--is the correct
<amos> thing to do.
<sherri> what do you mean extreme?
<amos> I think that if you classify the trend, more finely --then you know which rule to use.
<amos> Ed Seykotta said it wonderfully:
<amos> He said: Know all the rules, only act by those rules and know when to break those rules!
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<amos> sherri=- a climax, a panic , is an extreme, after a long previous drive
<sherri> would you call trading a billion bushels of soybeans in open interest an extreme?
<amos> I see it is not easy to do what I wanted--it is OK, the pain of learning
<amos> I am talking an extreme price, not size.
<sherri> ok
<amos> What is a limit position in beans? 5000 contracts? times 5000 is 2.5 millions
<amos> I do not know where you get a billion bushels.
<amos> sorry 25 miliion
<chris> 
<fibo> 
<amos> What I was trying to do with stating those clever rules--is to point out to you that if you have several rules
<lmarsh> 
<davep> 
<eric> 
<amos> you must also have a road map that will tell you when it is right to use each one of them
<sherri> 196,000 times 5,000
<amos> I feel strongly that WYckoff is such a good road map.
<amos> You also must understand that no one is going to tell you when to use each rule.
<Frank> the application must exist to apply the rules
<amos> The market is not a charity organization
<fibo> amos do you use anything else beside Wyckoff ?
<amos> fibo, I sat next to David Weis for 4 years.
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<amos> He wrote the Elliott wave commodity letter thru some of those years.
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<amos> I know how to calculate wave 5 base on wave 1 better than most ellioticians.
<amos> I know some "secrets" of Elliott, that few know.
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<amos> I just cannot make money with it.
<Lavona> I would appreciate the road map
<fibo> you have the "Elliott eyes" also like David said :-)
<amos> I know about stochastics, Delat, All of Welles Wilder more than most people (not because I am so smart, but becuase David made me study them)
<fibo> same here
<fibo> lol!
<amos> I respect moving averages. I also know that they all are lagging indicators and they mostly make
<amos> you money in hindsight.
<Frank> bravo amos
<amos> I could never make a single real dollar in hindsight (my banker wont accept them)
<sherri> 
<SteveF> 
<Sherry> 
<amos> I look at all the indicators, the methods, But I try to use that which I know best--and that is WYckofff.
<amos> (ran out of breath)
<fibo> thanks amos
<gary fullett> did u see a young women?
<Lavona> thank you amos
<amos> whre where where?
<gary fullett> u r out of breathe
<Lavona> how about an old man?
<fibo> do you use the fib's ?
<amos> I notice them
<amos> Look, Linda said it beautifully (talking of a "young woman")
<Frank> Amos women come and go but a good pet is until death do you part
<amos> She said that all of trading is deciphering relationships of numbers!!!!
<amos> If the market is coming to support (a number) you watch it and if the "test" is holding--you act
<gary fullett> class did u know maos and linda date
<amos> she said that some people use fibo, some use 50% some use any other method--it does not matter
<gary fullett> that is my thinking buy support with a stop
<gary fullett> sell resisatnce with a stop
<amos> she looks at Keltner, Bollinger, GOldfinger, ADX you name it--
<Sherry> 
<amos> they are all ok
<gary fullett> bollinger mentioned wyckoff yesterday
<gary fullett> he is trying to use the bands with volume
<fibo> that is what my husband uses..the numbers along with Wyckoff...a cluster of signals
<amos> Gary, we continue this class and EVERYBODY will metnion WYckoff.
<gary fullett> they can mention him
<gary fullett> but they wont be able to trade like us
<gary fullett> this group I feel will be great traders
<amos> fibo, we say the same thing--if you have a cluster of weekly, monthly and daily--u are using PRICE as
<amos> your guide, not a mathematical derivative.
<gary fullett> we should form our own brokerage firm :)
<amos> I think that price, since it is a true representative of supply and demand --is better.
<amos> As the saying goes: I have been poor, I have been rich. Rich is better.
<davep> 
<Frank> tyhat is how gann works
<gary fullett> U have 3 names amos
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> rich poor and amos?
<amos> NO FRANK, Gann like mathematics and derivative mjore than price!!
<amos> Gann was not a mathematician but he was fascinated by numbers. Look at all his spiral tables
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<lmarsh> 
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<eric> 
<mrj> 
<SteveF> 
<amos> Again, this "what-if" paradigm of WYckoff is a thinking process. According to Gann or anyone else
<Frank> previous range and price divided by 8 and three amos 
<amos> once the market hit a certain number it HAS to do something B.S.!!!!
<chris> 
<fibo> when it hits numbers..and the vol. and price action agrees..what a combination!
<amos> Again, if you use elliott, or gann with a good money and risk management--and you have good stops...
<Frank> No amos If the market does this it is working off this number
<amos> then you are OK
<amos> Frank, I am not going to convince you. So let us agree to disagree.
<amos> If you buy 62 % retracement...where is your stop? at 75%
<amos> ?
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<sherri> 
<Frank> ok amos , gann used numbers to define the market not to rule the market
<amos> what does that mean define not rule?
<amos> the romans used "divide and conquer"
<Sherry> jeff you from austrailia?
<gary fullett> did anyone watch the CRB index today
<sherri> y
<fibo> y
<gary fullett> this was mentioend last night
<gary fullett> about that it was at a critcal juncture
<gary fullett> I hope some of you were able to catch this
<Frank> I define when I apply words or numbers to describe or classify an action
<SteveF> Winning traders have the 'confidence" to put on a trade based on their method and good Money and Risk Management.
<Jeff Z.> Sherry, why do you think I'm from Australia?
<amos> that is true Steve, but conficend comes from adhereing to a certain organization
<Frank> it is your accent Jeff
<SteveF> true and I now believe that is "Wyckoff"
<gary fullett> right steve
<amos> hey, Frank, that was good. 
<Sherry> I used to know a s&p trader from austrailia, just wondering
<Jeff Z.> Not me. I'm in Texas
<amos> FOlks, we are in the new millinium--learn to use this chat:
<gary fullett> wyckoff to amos and I fibo and others is the way to watch amrkets
<Sherry> OK
<amos> If you click the white squre marked Private and select the name you want to talk to
<amos> 
<amos> you can communicate privately whie we all suffer here
<Jeff Z.> Sorry Amos, do I get sent to detention now?
<amos> NO, only to Addelide
<Sherry> Im paying attention, sorry
<amos> , serry, that is ok-- just learn to use the private line communication ( I learnt just recently)
<amos> We need to control the machine.
<amos> The computer is here to serve US
<Frank> sufferin, take Bufferin
<fibo> lol
<amos> That is Gann too?
<mrj> lol
<amos> let us talk a little about markets--what do you all make of today's action?
<gary fullett> CRB would be a good place to start
<amos> please tell me about the rain in spain which falls maily in the....
<fibo> corn & beans look good..they held support
<sherri> was the volume good fibo?
<gary fullett> corns action wasnt so imressive to me though
<gary fullett> beans acted wondrful
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> sherri would u have expected the volume to be good on the rally?
<fibo> sherri i couldn't get the prelim from cbot today because of puter problems
<sherri> gary...do you see the volume on the minute charts ...whatever?
<amos> Look at your language: "Looks good," Acted wonderfully" Is this the Oscar?
<gary fullett> volume was pretty good today in the grains
<gary fullett> yes I do sherri
<sherri> that is what I am talking about
<gary fullett> amos u look marvelous
<gary fullett> yes the volume was good
<amos> intraday tick volume is highly correlated to total volume, remember it is relative volume that we are interested in not absolute volume
<gary fullett> I would watch the coffe at these levels
<gary fullett> Right amos
<amos> tea too
<gary fullett> tea for 2
<gary fullett> as amos mentioned in the post
<mrj> bean oil met resistance at 18.00 level last four days
<gary fullett> the markets at hthese levels are biding time
<amos> PLEASE<I am asking for some guidance on markets following today...
<gary fullett> we must determine accumulation or distribtion treand
<amos> What should markets not do, what should they do in order to validate, or dispute todays action?
<gary fullett> amd act accordingly with proper stops
<sherri> looked good...but IMHO...still has to prove itself
<Frank> boko is in a range
<gary fullett> the grains went to previous support
<gary fullett> and held today
<gary fullett> that was good action
<amos> sherri, give us some numbers you would like to see
<eric> 
<gary fullett> if the market broke today a washout was probablr
<Frank> wko is in a range
<gary fullett> all grains are in a range Frank
<mrj> bean oil should go down
<Frank> cko is getting on a bus for 
<sherri> I always use nearby as guide...so that is May...5.45----5.54 of course
<Frank> florida
<gary fullett> why Frank?
<amos> rather than saying somehihng is in range--tell us if it is closer to the boundary (where we have high LOK and we can trade) or is it in the middle
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> i mean Mr jay?
<Frank> needs a weekend vacation
<gary fullett> grains closed at support yesterday
<gary fullett> today was a day where you could have bought with little risk
<fibo> soybeans went to support and had a daily thrust
<mrj> because it's been turned back at 18.00 level last four days and volume has been less on up days and higer on down days
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<Jeff Z.> 
<gary fullett> it is above 1800
<gary fullett> the more times u test an area the more likelt it will go thru
<mrj> I said about 18.00 level
<gary fullett> it is at 1805
<mrj> 17.95 to 18.06
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> would u be short here?
<lmarsh> 
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<sherri> mrj...they could reverse spreads and that would push meal up and oil down...
<sherri> just a thought mrj
<mrj> couldn't you also say that the more often it doesn't break through the better chance for it to go down?
<mrj> thanks sherri
<eric> 
<mrj> yes I would Gary
<mrj> would you?
<amos> 
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<gary fullett> I find it that the more times it tests the better chance it will break thru
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> a triple top is generally the last to hold
<gary fullett> where would your stop be?
<SteveF> roger wilco: )
<mrj> triple tops aren't Wyckoff are they?
<sherri> we will find out soon.....won't we?
<gary fullett> it is a retest 3 times
<mrj> yes 
<gary fullett> a market can retest many times
<gary fullett> one never knows how many times
<mrj> I know what it is but I don't believe it's Wyckoff
<gary fullett> but if a market keepds going to resistance
<gary fullett> eventually it will break above it
<sherri> so are they accumulating or distributing?
<gary fullett> why not mr Jay
<gary fullett> dont we talk about testing aND RETING ALL THE TIME
<gary fullett> sorry about the caps
<gary fullett> a triple top is like a retest 3 times
<mrj> A triple top is a pattern Wyckoff to my knowledge did not use patterns
<gary fullett> so it is wyckoff analogy
<gary fullett> he felt that patterns were a gimmick
<mrj> that's my poiunt
<amos> mrj---you are becoming a true believer--I LIKE THAT!!!
<mrj> poiny
<gary fullett> I used the term triple top to explain what I was saying
<gary fullett> I like to call it a retest 3 times
<mrj> thanks amos I am a true believer 
<amos> I am reminded of Tammy Faye Bakker, but I wont get into that here and now
<gary fullett> so what is the trend of bean oil?
<sherri> 
<mrj> uup
<gary fullett> so why would u sell?
<SteveF> amen..send a check!
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> didnt wyckoff go with the trend?
<amos> the check is IN th e mail
<lmarsh> : )
<mrj> then you wouldn't buy support and sell resistance
<gary fullett> yes I would
<amos> Do you know what are the 5 most common lies?
<mrj> what trend are you in?
<gary fullett> uptrend
<SteveF> the check is in the mail wsa one.
<gary fullett> you should be long bean oil
<mrj> In general, when in a trading range you are trendless right
<gary fullett> with stops under support
<davep> 
<amos> yes, you are my first is another
<amos> it is only a sore spot
<SteveF> lol
<gary fullett> u said that bean oil is up
<Lavona> lol
<davep> i'll still love you in the morning
<gary fullett> :)
<mrj> you're not following 
<amos> we are up to 4
<mrj> forget it
<gary fullett> I would sell at resisatnce to take profits
<gary fullett> but not sell really to be short
<amos> not bad mrj, this one new to me
<SteveF> size doesn't matter:)
<mrj> ?
<amos> good
<amos> Gary, we are running a parrallel universe here
<lmarsh> it would seem mrj is trading the range, in anticapation of the trading range continuing?
<davep> of course i did! ( :-) )
<amos> you are talking trivia and we are discussing the rules of the univers
<sherri> could beans and bean oil and meal be in a distorted version of stars 14 thru 21?
<amos> sherri we have not reached star 9 yet
<lmarsh> ok, does the rules of universe call todays action in July Cotton a SC(selling climax) of sorts?
<sherri> well that answers that
<amos> stars 14-19 are following mark up--when was the last markup you saw in the bean complex?
<sherri> ended at 5.54 May
<amos> HEY lmarsh, I just looked-YES YES
<amos> but you should always give the chance that it was only the Preliminary support and following a rally
<amos> there would be another drive down to be THE SC.
<amos> sherri, markup is a large up move--6.50-8 dollars a bushel!
<Sherry> cant pull up bean oil charts,
<sherri> oh...I see amos
<amos> Gary--did you see the cotton chart? I just saw it first time
<gary fullett> yes I did
<gary fullett> I was able to be involved in that one today
<amos> you kept it as a secret?
<amos> Why, you bought a cotton shirt?
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> i watched the market intrasday
<gary fullett> and saw a sc on a 15 minute chart
<davep> 
<amos> You 
<gary fullett> so I was able to get long on a retest
<chris> 
<amos> ARE the man
<gary fullett> yesterday I didnt know what today would bring
<gary fullett> but the intraday action proved good
<gary fullett> since it was on a 15 minute charg I liquidated
<amos> Please, people here- realize that the turn in the cash crb can be so significant--you have no idea--so just respect it!!
<sherri> okey dokey...amos
<fibo> good trade in the cotton Gary
<gary fullett> even a blind squirrel finds an acorn
<fibo> :-)
<gary fullett> it has been interesting
<Lavona> lol
<amos> that was number 6
<mrj> gn all thanks gary and amos
<gary fullett> okay amos
<fibo> lol
<fibo> nite mrj
<gary fullett> I will give a trade idea for tomorrow
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> RICE
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<Lavona> gn
<sherri> nite mrj
<gary fullett> at the 550 area
<gary fullett> thank u mr j
<amos> I say "plastic."
<fibo> visa? mastercard?
<gary fullett> rice is approaching the bottom of its range of support
<gary fullett> amex
<gary fullett> amos comment on the nasdaq
<amos> That looks like a double bottom and shortening of the downward thrust in may rice, I think you may be right Gary
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<amos> Buy a daily thrust
<gary fullett> see amos I do mention before it hapens
<gary fullett> I am looking for a selling cliamx incoffee
<amos> But why buy a weak market? follow an AR in cotton, follow the beans etc.
<gary fullett> i just saw this on an intraday basis
<gary fullett> and I am flat
<gary fullett> there isnt much cause for a mve much higher
<amos> I envy flat people
<gary fullett> no cause no big move
<amos> (men that is)
<gary fullett> gold seems to be acting well
<gary fullett> I think that it can be a retest of the recent highs soon
<lmarsh> 
<eric> 
<fibo> 
<chris> thank you gary, amos -very good class
<SteveF> 
<davep> 
<Lavona> nite all
<gary fullett> thsnk u all
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<sherri> nite everyone..thank you
<gary fullett> I will see u all tomorrow
<lmarsh> nite Lavona
<gary fullett> I hope everyone makes money tomorrow
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<SteveF> nite all
<fibo> nite all thanks
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