User [gary fullett /152.202.55.205] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:01:29 EDT 2000
User [Jeradatar /209.82.20.53] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:01:42 EDT 2000
<Sherry> Hi Gary
<Peggy> evening, Teacher
<Jack> hi gary
<shannon> wa's up gary
User [Jeradatar] left forum at Mon Apr 10 19:02:37 EDT 2000
User [Jeradatar /209.82.20.53] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:02:54 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> good evening evryone
<Peggy> Got a Q, Gary
<gary fullett> before I begin does anyone have any questions?
<gary fullett> yes peggy
<Peggy> Are continuous charts a compilation of dailies?
User [fibo /204.119.225.194] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:03:49 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> yes
<Peggy> they are not the monthlies?
<gary fullett> well daily charts make a weeklyand a monthly
<gary fullett> you have to have dailies to make a monthly chart
<gary fullett> okay?
<Peggy> k
<fibo> hello everyone
<Jack> hello
<gary fullett> good evening Fibo
<Sherry> Hi
<Peggy> hey there Fibo
<Jeradatar> Hi
<gary fullett> does anyone have any questions on markets or on wyckoff?
<gary fullett> okay I will begin then
<gary fullett> thi is the 3rd begginers class on wyckogg
<gary fullett> wyckoff
<gary fullett> we talked last week
<gary fullett> about a market that was in a down turn
<gary fullett> trend
<gary fullett> and was having its trend begin to turn up
User [shannon /152.207.104.81] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:06:55 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and that for a market to turn up generally
<Peggy> wb
<gary fullett> the market had to have a selling climax
<gary fullett> and this selling cliamx was seen by the heaviest volume
<gary fullett> with wide price action correct?
<gary fullett> do you all remember this?
<Peggy> y
<Jack> y
<gary fullett> great
<dpr> y
<Sherry> y
<gary fullett> so after this Selling climax the market had an automatic rally
<fibo> y
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> and developed a trading range btween the selling climax
<gary fullett> and the top of the automatic rally
<gary fullett> the schematic shows this
<gary fullett> the longer that the market goes sideways within this trading range the larger the move
<gary fullett> this trading range is cuasing "cause " to be built up
<gary fullett> ammunition so to speak
<gary fullett> when the market is going sideways after the bear move is over
<gary fullett> this sideways action is called?
<gary fullett> anyone?
<gary fullett> Accumulation
<gary fullett> what is accumaultion
<gary fullett> it is the buying on balance
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> meaning if the CM buys 10 contracts 
<gary fullett> and sells 5
User [TraderA /149.99.70.197] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:11:06 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> this is on balance buying of 5 contracts
<gary fullett> his Net position
<gary fullett> is long 5 contracts
<gary fullett> do you see this?
<Sherry> 
<Jack> y
<Jeradatar> 
<shannon> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> great.
<gary fullett> so Demand
<gary fullett> to buy is being accomplished in this traing range
<gary fullett> when Demand over comes supply ( selling)
<gary fullett> this lead to an uptrend
<gary fullett> this important statement
<gary fullett> please read it
<gary fullett> Demand ( buying) over comes supply (selling)
<gary fullett> this will lead to higher prices..
<gary fullett> Economic 101
<gary fullett> Demand vs supply
<gary fullett> when supply ( selling ) overcomes demand ( buying)
<gary fullett> the market will decrease or go lower
<gary fullett> when a market is ralliying it is being marked up
<gary fullett> when a market is going down it is being market down
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> does this make sense?
<gary fullett> r u following me/.
<Sherry> y
<shannon> y
<dpr> 
<Jack> y
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> great please ask whatever questions you wish at any time
<gary fullett> okay...
<gary fullett> so we see that the market just came out of a bearish trend
<gary fullett> and now that is is accumaulting
<Jeradatar> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> Demand overcoming supply
<gary fullett> what should happen?
<gary fullett> well the rallies or moves up
<gary fullett> should be on higher volume
<gary fullett> and larger trading ranges
<gary fullett> why do i say this
<gary fullett> it is becasue we want to see "demand " set in
<gary fullett> so buying should overcome selling
<gary fullett> if we see this we can get long with little risk
<gary fullett> there is Always risk in traing
<gary fullett> trading
<Jack> 
<Peggy> training, too
<gary fullett> but we try to elimanate as much as we can by good entry
<gary fullett> and proper stops
<gary fullett> so how long must this markt trade sideways?
<gary fullett> 1 week 2 months?
<gary fullett> a year?
<gary fullett> the fact is one NEVER knows
<gary fullett> we watch for signs of demand
<gary fullett> and buy support
<gary fullett> place a stop
<gary fullett> and watch for a move up
<gary fullett> we should see demand overcoming supply
<gary fullett> and I told you what to watch for
<gary fullett> heavier volume on rallies
<gary fullett> and lighter volume on breaks
<gary fullett> wide price action on rallies
<gary fullett> and smaller price moves on breaks or pullbacks
<gary fullett> why?
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> because increase volume and price range shows demand
<gary fullett> and pullbacks should show less supply or selling....
<gary fullett> do you understand this?
<Peggy> 
<Jack> 
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> I will be sending charts soon and I willshow u many examples
<gary fullett> questions please?
<Sherry> An up day on lighter volumn=down next day?
<gary fullett> does anyone have any questions?
<gary fullett> not necesaarily
<gary fullett> if an up day is on light volume
<gary fullett> it can mean 2 things
<gary fullett> one supply isnt evident
<gary fullett> or 2
<gary fullett> if the range is small this can mean demand may be waning
<gary fullett> but usually it is lack of supply
<gary fullett> if the trading range is accumalation
<gary fullett> so one never know how long a market will stay it its trading range
<gary fullett> buy we MUST watch constantly
<gary fullett> for igns of the market to move up
<gary fullett> signs
<gary fullett> volume and price action
<gary fullett> so the maret has been in a range
<gary fullett> and now it appears to leave this range
<gary fullett> "news" begins to become not as bearish
<gary fullett> and may even become somewhat bullish
<gary fullett> Like the grains recently
<gary fullett> whenit is about to leave its range
<gary fullett> it will generaly do o with forr
<gary fullett> increased volume ( demand)
<gary fullett> and wide price action
<gary fullett> it will generally gap higher
<gary fullett> this gap is called a Jump over the creek
<gary fullett> JOC for short
<gary fullett> it is when demand really over somes supply
<gary fullett> it is when the CM has accumalted
<gary fullett> his poistion
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> while in the trading range
<fibo> 
<dpr> 
<gary fullett> and he coincides
<Peggy> 
<Jeradatar> 
<gary fullett> thji jump with some "bullish news "
<TraderA> 
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> it is this jumps that you hear the " funds are buying:
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> but remeber the CM :knew" this
<gary fullett> during the trading range so he is hapy
<gary fullett> happy
<gary fullett> this Jump over the creek
<gary fullett> is also a sign of strenghth in the market
<gary fullett> buying clearly now has an upper hand
<gary fullett> and the up trend is about to move ahead
<dpr> q
<dpr> is the joc usually filled?
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> great question
<gary fullett> can anyone try to answer?
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> the answer is not necessarily
<gary fullett> there is a gap in GM stock at 7 i eliev from 1940
<gary fullett> it has never been filled
<gary fullett> so some are waitnig 60 yrs for that to be filled
<gary fullett> like I wait for the Chicago Cubs to win a world series :)
<Peggy> lol
<gary fullett> many people think that gaps
<gary fullett> are filled
<gary fullett> this is NOT true
<gary fullett> soemtimes they are filled sometimes they arent
<gary fullett> if u think they are it is a trick
<gary fullett> that may or may not work
<gary fullett> we try not to guess and atch market ction and behavior
<gary fullett> okay dpr?
<dpr> k
<Sherry> Draw a line, if a light volumn test occurs
<gary fullett> greta question
<Jack> 
<Peggy> 
<Jeradatar> 
<shannon> 
<fibo> 
<dpr> another q
<gary fullett> question sherry?
<gary fullett> okay dpr
<Sherry> Yes
<gary fullett> please ask
<dpr> when you say higher vol, are you comparing it to some moving average vol, if so what
<gary fullett> good question
<gary fullett> when I say higher volume I am comparing
<gary fullett> the volume to the area
<gary fullett> that it is traing in
<gary fullett> so if volume is 4 k
<gary fullett> yesterday and today it is 6 k
<gary fullett> that is an increase
<gary fullett> but somemarket s tend to be more actiive at times
<gary fullett> so 3 months ago that volume may have been 10 k
<gary fullett> and the next day 9 k
<Sherry> If you draw a line and the market comes to test it on light volumn, could this indicate gap wont fill?
<gary fullett> but I am referring to volume to the trading area that it is trading
<gary fullett> that could be
<gary fullett> but one never knows if that light volume will fill the gap
<gary fullett> it can and it may not
<gary fullett> but if the volume is light
<gary fullett> and the price action small
<gary fullett> then it probbaly ont be filled
<gary fullett> for example
<gary fullett> dpr
<fibo> 
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> grains volume tends to pick up on summer relative to winter correct?
<dpr> y
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> so 100 k volume in july may be the norm for beans
<gary fullett> but if this happened is december wow
<Jeradatar> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> so it is the are realative to itself that is important
<gary fullett> I am referring to daily volume now
<gary fullett> okay?
<gary fullett> great questins
<Sherry> Thanks
<dpr> k, so you have to know what is normal for that time of year, and that price range
<gary fullett> please note that resiatnce becomes support
<gary fullett> an support becomes resisiatnce
<gary fullett> not really the norm
<gary fullett> but u should watch the volume relative to the area that is trading in
<gary fullett> if todays volume was 7 k
<gary fullett> then 16 k the next day
<gary fullett> then 7 k the trhird day
<gary fullett> the 16 k volume probaly has some significance
<gary fullett> it is the net change of volume that is important
<Jack> 
<dpr> k
<gary fullett> if the volume is 100k then 99 k
<gary fullett> then 100
<gary fullett> it is the norm for volume tobe at about 100k in that area
<gary fullett> but if the next week it is 6k
<gary fullett> then those 2 volumes must be comapred
<gary fullett> but in 6 months the volume may be 5 k one day 6 k the next 5 k the next
<gary fullett> so 5 k is the norm in that area
<gary fullett> so after the Jump over the creek 
<gary fullett> the market is being marked up
<gary fullett> or rallying
<gary fullett> and demand is clearly overcoming supply
<gary fullett> the market will rally
<gary fullett> generall y to the next resisitance and fail
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> this is because the market was in a downtrnd
<gary fullett> and must fight resistance all the wya up
User [dene /207.50.1.141] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:43:49 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> beause the down mov previous
<gary fullett> left resisnace area
<TraderA> 
<Sherry> 
<Jack> 
User [sal /206.175.232.49] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:44:10 EDT 2000
<Peggy> 
<fibo> hi dene
<fibo> hi sal
<sal> hi all
<Jeradatar> 
<gary fullett> so the market will encounter reasonable resisatnce area
<Peggy> hi, sal
<gary fullett> and it is logical for selling to come in
<gary fullett> this is Not good selling
<gary fullett> and what I mean by this 
<gary fullett> it is not selling by the CM 
<gary fullett> but selling by people who see reisatnce
<gary fullett> and a chance to make a quick buck
User [dene] left forum at Mon Apr 10 19:45:20 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> but there is risk
User [shannon /152.207.104.81] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:45:24 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> since the trend has changed to the up
<gary fullett> before u could sell reisistance and make 
<gary fullett> money in the down turn
<gary fullett> but now that the trend is up
<gary fullett> it will be more difficualy
<gary fullett> in an uptrend most of your trades should be on the long side
<gary fullett> because the risk is less there
<gary fullett> and the "trend is your friend"
<gary fullett> so the market gapped or jumped
<gary fullett> and encounteres resistance
<gary fullett> at this point price action is good
<gary fullett> and the volume increasing
<Jack> 
<Peggy> 
User [Dene /207.50.1.141] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:47:23 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> after the market goes to resiatnce it
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> pullback
<gary fullett> it pullback on lighter volume
<gary fullett> and smaller price action
<gary fullett> it (hopefully) will pull all the wat to the top of the last trading range
<gary fullett> which was resisatnce now key support
<gary fullett> why do I say hopefull all the way
<gary fullett> because it is at this point where the risk of the long side
<gary fullett> is the least according to wyckoff
<gary fullett> if it pullback to near the top of the creek or top of the last trading range
<gary fullett> it is still a good buy but the stop is further apart
<Jeradatar> 
<gary fullett> because the stop would have to be soemwhere in the traidng range
<gary fullett> and the bettre the buy area
<gary fullett> the least anount of risk with a stop
<sal> 
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> questions?
<gary fullett> the volume on this pullback should be on lighter volume and price action
<gary fullett> showing lack of Supply
<gary fullett> we saw the demand evident 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> by the jump over the creek
<shannon> 
<gary fullett> and the wider price action
<gary fullett> does everyone undersatnd so far what I am saying?
<gary fullett> does it make sense?
User [Jack] left forum at Mon Apr 10 19:51:20 EDT 2000
<dpr> y
<Sherry> y
<fibo> y
<Peggy> y
<gary fullett> after the pullback
<gary fullett> or a retest as I use many many times
<TraderA> 
<gary fullett> the market satrts up again
<gary fullett> again the rallies should be on lighter volume
<gary fullett> and wider price action
<gary fullett> showing that the bulls are in control
<gary fullett> and that demand is overcoming supply
<dpr> higher vol
<gary fullett> yes dpr
<gary fullett> the market will then rally to its next resisatnce
<gary fullett> and pullback
<gary fullett> to support on lighter volume
<gary fullett> and this process continues
<gary fullett> throughout the whole bull run...
<gary fullett> I will tell you on wednesday
<gary fullett> what cause the market to top out
<gary fullett> and I will go over the topping process
<gary fullett> and the move back down
<gary fullett> but as the market continues
<gary fullett> to go higher
<gary fullett> more bulls get on board
<gary fullett> the longs are getting longer
<gary fullett> the new trader s
<Jeradatar> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> and inexperience traders
<gary fullett> buy late in the move
<gary fullett> because they dont recognize
<gary fullett> what is happening
<gary fullett> as the markket moves higher and higher the :news becoames
<gary fullett> more and morebullish
<gary fullett> greed that "someoe may miss the move"
<gary fullett> like the high techs in Feburary
<gary fullett> the buying in the high tech from december thru feb
<shannon> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> that type of greed
<gary fullett> I will talk abou the nasdaq
<gary fullett> in the next class at 8pm tonight
User [Dene /207.50.1.135] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 19:57:14 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> so the market wil continue to go up
<gary fullett> as long as there is the bullish news
User [fibo] left forum at Mon Apr 10 19:57:28 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and that new longs eneter
<gary fullett> it feeds upon itself
<gary fullett> understand?
<dpr> y
<gary fullett> Fear and greed run the markets
<dpr> q
<gary fullett> fear that it will go lower
<gary fullett> and greed that the market is going higher
<gary fullett> questions?
<dpr> when messuring price action do you use true range or just trading hour ranges
<gary fullett> it depends on your times frame
<gary fullett> a day tradr will use hourly charts as well as 15 minutes charts
<sal> 
<gary fullett> a longer term trader will use daily charts weekly charts and monthly charts
<gary fullett> there are many differnt time frames
<gary fullett> if u have a selling climax
<gary fullett> on a 5 minute chart
<gary fullett> the move will not be large
<gary fullett> because the market had no time to prepare
<gary fullett> if u have a selling climax on a monthly
<gary fullett> one can expaect a large up move
<gary fullett> one must keep focuc on the range that u want to trade
<Jeradatar> 
<gary fullett> donrt expect a large move from a 5 minute chart
<Peggy> 
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> expect a large move from a monthly perspective......
<shannon> 
User [mrj /206.251.171.145] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:01:50 EDT 2000
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:01:51 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi everybody
<Dene> 
<gary fullett> are there any other questions?
<sal> hey mrj
<Peggy> hi, MrJ
<gary fullett> otherwise I will continue the beginners class on wednedsay at 7pm
<gary fullett> but all are welcome to stay for the next class
<gary fullett> the charge is the same 
<gary fullett> Free
<davep> hi gary<Enter Text Here>
<gary fullett> I will take a 3 minute break and I will return....
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User [fibo /204.119.225.194] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:03:24 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> thank you for coming tomnight I hoped it helped and I hop u all stay for the next class
<Peggy>-><shannon> is it making sense?
<gary fullett> brb
<mrj> hi fibo
<davep> hi fibo, mrj
<fibo> hello everyone
<TraderA> 
<shannon>-><Peggy> samya hasn't been cooperative today! will you send this log so i can read it i've only been able to get parts of it
<mrj> hey dave good post
<Peggy>-><shannon> sure. I'll do that tomorrow. Love you
<davep> thnx
<shannon>-><Peggy> so no it hasn't made sense. thanx
<shannon>-><Peggy> bye
<Peggy>-><shannon> nite
<Peggy> Has anyone talked to Frank lately?
<fibo> no i haven't
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<sal> hey fibo you're in panhandle right?
<fibo> yes
<sal> any rain yet
<sal> we had storm and all we got is .1 inch
<fibo> not today..we had good rain last part of Mar. finally
User [amos /62.0.146.194] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:05:51 EDT 2000
<mrj> Peggy Frank's been busy heard from him today
<fibo> oh dear sal
<fibo> hello amos
<sal> we're still short bout 16 inches
<fibo> wow sal
User [Jimbo /63.31.232.224] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:06:10 EDT 2000
<davep> hi amos
<gary fullett> I am back
<Jimbo> hi all
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> hi everyine
<amos> Hi, wow sal too, even tho I have no idea what for
User [eric /206.98.11.169] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:06:54 EDT 2000
<mrj> hi jimbo 
<Peggy> Mr.J, tell him we miss him here.
<gary fullett> we had snow today
<fibo> she has had no rain amos..
<gary fullett> I Love spring
<sal> :)
<eric> <Enter Text Here>good evening
<fibo> gary e-mail sal some snow:-)
<amos> So did Spain
<Peggy> We have spring today, 70s
<mrj> I told him that but will tell him again
<fibo> hi eric
<gary fullett> well any questions 
<sal> that's ok fibo dont want precip that bad
<gary fullett> on wyckoff or about markets
<Peggy> Amos, took your advice and looked at Linda's articles.
<amos> and?
<Peggy> She has good advice re putting down a business plan
<Peggy> Started on making mine, defining what to watch, but
<Peggy> more importantly HOW to watch.
User [Lavona /207.50.1.135] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:09:06 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> very good peggy..
<Peggy> For me this means a check list to start so I don'tt leave anythning out
<fibo> hello Lavona how are you?
<Peggy> oh, yeah, amos, the first is Monthly charts, 
<Lavona> hello fibo doing fine
<fibo> good to hear
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:09:58 EDT 2000
<amos> Peggy, I have done nothing but poring over Linda's stuff in the last 72 hours.
<TraderA> 
<sal> anyone follow Nasdaq today , did it break any major support?
<gary fullett> do u have anything enlighting about it amos?
<gary fullett> I wanted to chat on that sal
<sal> ggod
<gary fullett> but I was letting the LB stuff be said
<sal> oops good
<amos> Look at the Nasdaq from a Star point of view and we may have had a daily AR and we are now testing the low
<gary fullett> amos is hter anything on LB that u would like to share?
<amos> of that Ar. 
<sal> by the way my dyslexic atheists believe in dog
<gary fullett> :)
<fibo> :-)
User [Jimbo] left forum at Mon Apr 10 20:12:00 EDT 2000
<Peggy> lol
<gary fullett> amos would u like to talk about the nasadq heere
<davep> 
<gary fullett> what I wanted to mention that fater tuesday deep break the market
<amos> Gary, I am not ready, but I will work on this and tmw I wil
<gary fullett> rallied for about 3 days
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> gnerally whjen a amrket rallies after weakness it is about 3 days
<gary fullett> so firdays actions was to get the shorts out of the amrket'
<gary fullett> and have a "decent" weeekly close"
<gary fullett> which it did I bet not many epope, went home short on friday
<eric> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> but if you watchjed the market carefully
<gary fullett> the market had alot of weakness
<gary fullett> on tuesday
User [Jimbo /63.31.232.224] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:14:21 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and didnt prepare for a move
<fibo> hi Jimbo
<gary fullett> so the rally over the last few days was just a reaction the the decline on tuesday
<gary fullett> so the market went to resistance
<gary fullett> it filed sharply
<gary fullett> i tis interesting to note that friday
<Jimbo> hi fibo, back from printing nasdaq
<gary fullett> was a record up/
<dpr> 
<Lavona> Gary if you are talking about the nasdaq the volume is getting lower
<gary fullett> I belive today was a record down huh?
<gary fullett> this to me shows weakness
<Lavona> n
<gary fullett> it filed on a day that one would ecxpect
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> on the break lavona?>
<Lavona> k
<davep> 
User [Jeradatar] left forum at Mon Apr 10 20:16:27 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> today was a very bearish day
<gary fullett> and i think it will lead to a retest of tuesdays lows
<Lavona> k
<gary fullett> so the action today was not so unexpected....
<amos> a word about the crb please.
<sal> 
<gary fullett> I wanted to talk about grains and crb
<gary fullett> so I will let amos speak on the crb now
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> please amos,,,,
<amos> Sunce I spent so much time on Thursday putting people to sleep with my " in depth" analysis
<Peggy> 
<Sherry> 
<TraderA> 
<mrj> 
<fibo> 
<amos> of the crb ( you now understand why when people ask my about my analysis of anything I aske
<Jimbo> 
<Sherry> checking computer
<amos> what is "ysis?"
<eric> 
<amos> I wouild like to continue a few words on the continuation of the CRB SAGA
<amos> . IT when down today.
<amos> The cash did not hold support around the 209.91.
<gary fullett> 
<amos> So...is the trend is down and we broke the long term trendline--we should only look at daily highs.
<Lavona> 
<amos> In a down trend, supply should enter the market at lower and lower prices.
<amos> So here are the numbers.
<amos> In the CRB cash today's high was 210.17. Friday high was 210.78
<amos> so if we go above these two numbers--we have a chance of a spting of the 6 months uptrendling.
<amos> As long as we stay below these two numbers--the trend is DOWN.
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.189] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:22:03 EDT 2000
<amos> In the June contract we had an interesting phenomenon worth mentioning.
<amos> The 210.80 was a "doulbe bottom."
<mrj> hey marsh
<amos> It is strange to talk about two successive days (or any time frames for that matter)
<amos> holding identical numbers as "doulbe " anything.
<amos> But--it happens and once in a blue moon (ala recent "Sex and the Big City") it works.
<amos> So the futures behave a little stronger than the cash.
User [mike /152.206.213.60] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:24:01 EDT 2000
<amos> I would like cash to lead--But I am not a CM.
<amos> There you go-- 3 nubers to lead us onto dreamland.
<lmarsh> hey mrj , everyone
<amos> If cash crb goes abouve 210.78--we can have a very strong rally in several commoditieis.
<amos> Now if you want to take this discussion into the individual sectors- You can say that when the Golcman Sax is down 510, the unleaded down 322 points
<amos> this is a weak day in some major commodities. And if the crb is only down 131 then there is hidden strength,
<amos> But YOU can say that. I would say it is Rationalization.
<amos> However, some psyciatrist make good money from Freud's defense mechanisms.
<amos> So, we have to watch.
<amos> Haook
<sal> 
<fibo> 
<Peggy> 
<eric> 
<lmarsh> 
<Jimbo> 
<mike> 
<mrj> 
<davep> 
<Lavona> 
<Sherry> 
<amos> Gary, the ceiling is yours
<gary fullett> it is huh..
<amos> Ok, you want me to talk a little about Linda?
<gary fullett> I want o ask is there any part of wyckoff that anyone would like me to expalin or review
<TraderA> 
<gary fullett> well since
<gary fullett> you brought her up ;ast week
<gary fullett> why dont u talk about her with wyckoff terms
<gary fullett> and how her stuff relates to wyckoff...
<amos> First, there is a reason why she makes money.
<amos> Some people have the ability to really separate the chaff from the whatever ( i do not want to talk bearsih wheat)
User [gary fullett] left forum at Mon Apr 10 20:30:21 EDT 2000
<amos> She basically says that it does not matter what system you use as long as you understand that if you relate to price
<amos> as "truth" and you compare prices with the intention of deciphering the intentions of the "CM" (she does not call it by that name)
User [gary fullett /152.202.55.205] joined forum at Mon Apr 10 20:31:02 EDT 2000
<amos> then you have a small chance of making money.
<davep> 
<amos> She is very sensitive to daily highs and lows. Which means that she understands the deep meaning
<amos> of certain numbers--a daily high is the daily SUPLLY for that day. A weekly high is the weekly SUPPLY for that week.
<TraderA> 
<amos> She relates very strongly to recent (and not so recent) appearances of supply and demand in the market.
<amos> This is basically Wyckoff.
<amos> She relates strongly to Douglas Stuart Taylor--who was one of Wyckoff cronies.
<amos> They talk similar language, only that Taylor transferred it to the point of view of the floor trader.
<Sherry> 
<amos> And as a result his appraoch is more suitable for scalping.
<sal> 
<amos> But all in all--she is deeply tuned to the psychology of the market and the concept of manipulation and how those
<gary fullett> amos what is the lenghth of trade that LB uses time frame?
<amos> proceesess take a route of themselves and you have to learn to listen and read them correctly
<amos> she says she takes trades home only if she shows profit at the end of the day, because it favors her play.
<Lavona> 
<gary fullett> so if she has a small loser on the close she gets out?
<amos> This reminds me how you used to push my Gary to go long on the close if the market closes strongly, because the chances it will go a littl higher the next day
<gary fullett> or does she let the market take her out wth as stop?
<amos> were very good. I used to fight you (at least in my mind) but from a floor trader point of view-it works abour 60% of the timie--and it is good play--turns out Linda does it ALL the time
<amos> She said she is about 3-5 days swing player
<gary fullett> I tried to do that often
<amos> But I saw her bailing out on the 1-minute bar chart!
<gary fullett> on a strong close go home long if resiatcne gives me a god risk reward trade
<gary fullett> but if a market closes strong
<gary fullett> and it is near resisatnce I may go home short
<gary fullett> sometimes I will take a postion home MOC and I will get out in the night session If I feel
<gary fullett> the market doesn reat the way i want it to
<amos> But all this is insignificant--she says that the most important point is never add to losers and never trade without a stop that
<amos> you put BEFORE you enter the trade.
<gary fullett> floor traders ahve pivot area
<gary fullett> and if they go above thatpivot they are long
<amos> Yes, Pivot is another refenrece number
<gary fullett> that is very very true
<gary fullett> stops MUST be used
<gary fullett> and objectives should be also in yur mind
<amos> Her psychological stuff is among the best I have ever seen
<gary fullett> not all the times are objectives met
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> so one must bail if they think they are wrng
<lmarsh> 
<mike> 
<Peggy> 
<davep> 
<gary fullett> how amny markets does she trade at one time?
<gary fullett> many
<Sherry> 
<mrj> 
<Jimbo> 
<eric> 
<sal> 
<amos> She looks at all, but she day trades the S&P because it is the most opportunity giver to a trader like her.
<TraderA> 
<amos> She also says that if you listen to news you are dead
<gary fullett> what time frame does she trade them?
<amos> from 1 min to 60 min
<gary fullett> 5 minute chart?
<gary fullett> 15?
<gary fullett> what type of stops does she use?
<amos> She says that a good trader memorizes ALL the support resistance point the market had in recent history.
<gary fullett> risk to reward?
<gary fullett> hey thats what I try to do..
<amos> She uses last time frame high or low.
<gary fullett> but i have a small brain
<gary fullett> because the risks can be large with the s and p
<amos> So trade peas futures
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> s and peas?
<gary fullett> smart a....
<sal> she recommended to me and other part timers to trade off of weeklies
<amos> very good, s and peas for people with small brains--very good
<sal> in the ino chat a few weeks ago
<davep> 
<amos> Peggy, please show people how to get her articles--read them...
<gary fullett> weekly and not monthly charts sal?
<Sherry> 
<Peggy> go to mrci.com (I hope) click on her name, ask for 2 week free trial, registre, get articles
<sal> both, gary, her point was stay away from shorter which we couldnt monitor well
<Peggy> Her business plan article is excellent.
<mike> whats her name?
<amos> and it seems she was a turtle
<Peggy> Makes you strategize your overall plan, trading plan, style, long-term goals
<gary fullett> yes if u cant mnitor closely
<gary fullett> one should trade short term
<Peggy> what is her last name, Amos
<amos> Bradford Raschke
<Peggy> Raschke?
<amos> LBR
<gary fullett> Linda is her first na,me
<mike> thanks
<davep> she's also featured in Schwager's "New Market Wizards"
<amos> Or maybe it was Lavin?
<sal> :)
<amos> Mel's Place?
<Peggy> alice
<amos> flo?
<Peggy> flo was the looker
<sal> we're dating ourselves again
<amos> L?
<Peggy> correct
<amos> looker or hooker?
<Peggy> Looker
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<Peggy> see what we did to Mike!!!
<amos> Well, Alice does not live here anymore
<lmarsh> : ^/
<gary fullett> amos do u have a commnet on grains
<amos> I think we are accumulating. We are not in a hurry, and we make everyone leery of getting long.
<amos> The verdict is already out. The trend is up.
<gary fullett> please remeber everyone
<amos> that is beans,. not wheat,.
<gary fullett> the grains are in a range now
<gary fullett> so the breaks may seem shrp
<gary fullett> but they are really contained
<gary fullett> in the range
<amos> Wheat will have to finish the first notice day of may arounhd these levels and kill all longs
<gary fullett> that they are in
<amos> But in July we start a big rally.
<gary fullett> why July?
<amos> Why not?
<amos> Historically, wheat makes a low around July. So if we are finishing that large accumulation we talked about a few days ago--then July is a fine time
<gary fullett> nice answer weisel
<gary fullett> when do the beans bottom?
<gary fullett> corn?
<amos> gary, it does not matter what I say about the time--the market has to go above certain resistance to do a jump or sign of strength.
<Peggy> Amos, is a triple bottom in continuous corn significant?
<amos> The beans have a chance of washing the stops below 519, but the dema nd above 511 in May is awesome
<Sherry> 
<amos> Please look at the monthly chart. We already made a higher high. So we are spending the rest of April
<amos> seeking a low of the month. Markets just dont fly (only eagles do)
<davep> 
<Lavona> 
<gary fullett> well u mentioend July should be the rally in wheat so u mentioedn time
<sal> 
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> I htought time played a role or u
<amos> ah tempus fugit
<gary fullett> so if one was longer term
<mrj> 
<amos> Time is very important.
<gary fullett> then the November beans would be the ones to buy?
<amos> When we finally get into discussion of the deep process of manipulation (time allowing, of course) you will see that time is
<gary fullett> or would u buy July beans?
<amos> one of the strongest tools of manipulation the CM has
<amos> .
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<amos> If we are in an uptrend then July gives you enough chance for a move. But that depends if you want to hold them for that long
<fibo> 
<amos> It only is important from a psychological point of view--you have more inclination to sit and wait when you are long nov
<amos> Gary is an inand out guy
<TraderA> 
<amos> kind of
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<gary fullett> sorry
<fibo> wb gary
<amos> I said, Gary, that you are kinda in and out guy.
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<Jimbo> me 2
<gary fullett> fibo do u have a comment on the grains?
<sal> 
<davep> peggy mentioned triple bottom in continuous corn
<Lavona> 
<fibo> i am still friendly toward the corn and beans
<Peggy> 
<lmarsh> 
<mrj> 
<eric> Amos, could you discuss the proper way to concatenate the contracts.
<fibo> so far there has been no volume on the last leg down on the corn 
<Jimbo> could someone do a rough star count on may beans?
<amos> yes. There are mainly two important ways. The usual one is by simply going thru expiration. The other one is shifting into the most active contract the moment the recent one
<fibo> which shows a lack of sellers
<amos> stops being active. Most of the time it is when the pit switches. And it is around first notice day in the grains and other commodtiites.
<gary fullett> i agree fibo
<amos> In the currecnices it does not work,. in the EUrodollar--you have larger choice. in the energies since they have 12 contractts--itis a hard decidssion.
<lmarsh> yes, very good point
<eric> so no price adjustment
<fibo> :-)
<amos> But the basic idea is that you have to determine for yourself.
<Lavona> The options haven't weaken much in beans
<amos> eric?
<amos> what do you mean?
<davep> amos, does switching from nearby to next when open interest first greater in deferred work?
<eric> to fill the gap
<amos> These are good questions. If you think that there is a definite answer-- I am sorry to disappoint you.
<gary fullett> whichh optiob lavona calls or puts?
<fibo> we use expiration on our weeklys and monthlys
<amos> I can only tell you that I used to watch several concatenation methods (it is easy on a system like
User [TraderA] left forum at Mon Apr 10 21:06:28 EDT 2000
<amos> CQG since they allow you to select a date) and I have discovered many times that at crucial points--the !@#$!@#$!@$ CM used to
<amos> communicate perfect signals on one of those charts--while the world was watching other charts.
<fibo> sneaky aren't they
<amos> so you just have to work hard to find all the support and resistance on many types of charts.It is hard work
<amos> sneaky is understatment. But that is their business.
<amos> However, if you are not lazy
<amos> and you discover such descrepency no too late--then you still have plenty of time to join a move
<amos> because when the manipulation is large--the cause is large and the effect mahy take several months.
<amos> This is another wonderful point that Linda makes: she says--do not ever worry about losing a trade. Just join the mopmentum if it is still there
<amos> the market will go much further than wher e it is now..
<fibo> on the weekly corn continuation (expiration) the high made 7-12-96 was on Jul. contract after the first notice day.
<amos> and , fibo?
<fibo> the 177 low was made on 7-16-99 on Jul. contract after first notice day
<gary fullett> the best traders I know scratch many trades
<amos> and, had you known that would it have helped you make money?
<gary fullett> because they were probably wrong and got out with a small loss or no loss
<fibo> yes amos. because that is where our fib. ratio targets were.
<amos> Yes, it is an itchy problem. Good traders scratch a lot
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> the good ones use soap
<lmarsh> : )
<amos> soap ==another misspelling of s and p
<gary fullett> what is your excuse
<Lavona> :)
<sal> 
<eric> 
<Jimbo> 
<davep> 
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<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett>-><fibo> a rare bird that amos is huh?
<amos> I think , in general, that we are at a very interesting()tantalizing) corner of markets.
<Jimbo>-><gary fullett> Gary-where do you see Wyckoff pts on may beans? weekly? monthly?
<amos> IF the !!@#$!@#$ crb wil turn up--then with the recent weakness of the energy and metals--we can get
<gary fullett>-><Jimbo> I dont use the points like maos does 
<fibo>-><gary fullett> sorry i mentioned fib targets..but we do know what works on the corn , etc. 
<gary fullett>-><Jimbo> I wastch the markets for support
<amos> very nice rallies in the grains, softs, metals..... these are interesting times
<gary fullett>-><Jimbo> and buy idf I think accumaltion
<amos> (Except that it is a CHinese curse:"May you live in interesting times."
<gary fullett>-><fibo> I know
<Jimbo>-><gary fullett> I think I know but need verification. I can find s & r but want to watch for big moves too
<gary fullett> what other markets do u think can turn up with the crb?
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<Sherry> 
<gary fullett>-><Jimbo> 522-518 may beans
<amos> You know, that requires a sector anlysis of the crb with total volume of sectors.
<amos> Out of question for me. You just have to watch individual market. I think gold and silver look interesting
<gary fullett> is there a market besides grains that tend to be strong over the summer months?
<amos> beans, sugar is not bad, Coffee one of these days, Cocoa one of these years
<sal> ice cream
<fibo> :-)
<amos> peanuts, Carter
<Sherry> unleaded gas
<gary fullett> interesting selection of markets
<gary fullett> those are the ones I focus on recently
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment on the bonds?
<gary fullett> r there any charts that anyone would like me to send tomorrow?
<amos> We have a small double top in June around 99-24. We need to see a sign of weakness.
<gary fullett> I want to go over some longer term xcharts tomorro night
<mrj> 
<fibo> k
<gary fullett> what is the trend of the bonds to u? bearish?
<gary fullett> I think since the CRB is at a juncture
<Lavona> 
<amos> daily up, weekly side, monthly down
<gary fullett> that the longer term charts will be interesting to look 
<lmarsh> someone mentioned doing a start count on beans,....I forgot you originally asked about it??
<gary fullett> at to catch a few moves
<lmarsh> start count
<amos> what is a start count?
<gary fullett> so a mixed bag ( of peanuts )
<amos> Like Gentelmen, start you engines?
<Jimbo>-><Jimbo> I did lmarsh
<lmarsh> star count amos,.......i can't type worth a___
<gary fullett> huh?
<gary fullett> oh
<Jimbo> I did lmarsh thx
<Sherry> 
<gary fullett> amos can u answer jimbox question
<amos> Well, lmarsh--give us your astrological insight
<gary fullett> on where we are at in the beans
<davep> 
<lmarsh> could you send a chart tommorow on beans with star count, gary?
<gary fullett> I guess I can do that
<gary fullett> amos is in the stars tonight
<fibo> while you are at it put one on the corn too please
<lmarsh> thanks
<gary fullett> I would rather send it and discuss it rather than talk about it blindly
<sal> 
<Lavona> y
<gary fullett> that will be amoses project for tomorrow
<lmarsh> yes corn would be good too, tomorrow
<gary fullett> corna nd bean starts
<amos> I am like Erma Bombeck (may she rest in peace)=-- in the pits.
<gary fullett> stars
<gary fullett> for his punishemnt
<lmarsh> : ^)
<gary fullett> she died?
<sal> y
<Lavona> y
<gary fullett> no wonder I havent seen any of her books lately
<Sherry> 
<fibo> severall years ago
<gary fullett> I should keep the other ones I have too'
<amos> So did Methuselach, Gary.
<gary fullett> anything serious?
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<fibo> cancer
<sal> Erma, Charles Schultz, Mickey Mantle, Roy Rogers ....no good guys left
<gary fullett> what did he die of?
<gary fullett> amos is left
<gary fullett> he is a good guy
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> weird buy good
<gary fullett> but
<amos> Gary, the biggest single cause of death is----LIFE
<gary fullett> very well said
<gary fullett> well... I am going to walk the dogs and do some charts
<gary fullett> I will send wekly and monthly charts
<amos> it WAS A deadly magazine!
<gary fullett> tomorrow night
<fibo> don't get them mixed up
<sal> good idea, gotta go too
<fibo> :-)
<gary fullett> and we will work hard after a break tonigh
User [sal] left forum at Mon Apr 10 21:27:57 EDT 2000
<fibo> nite gary thanks
<Jimbo> thx gary, amos too
<gary fullett> have agreat night all
<Jimbo> gn
<amos> have a good day all
<lmarsh> sound good gary,.......have a good nite
<davep> night gary, thanks
<gary fullett> I may have to shovel snow tomorrow
<mrj> gn all
<gary fullett> good night
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