User [gary fullett /152.173.70.10] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 19:57:19 EDT 2000 User [mrj /209.16.79.235] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 19:59:44 EDT 2000 hi gary hi how are you doing good User [amos /62.0.146.17] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:01:53 EDT 2000 hi amos User [dpr /206.63.203.220] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:02:16 EDT 2000 hi dpr hi hi all hi dpr User [sal /206.175.230.65] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:03:40 EDT 2000 i need to walk the dog i will be right back hey sal hi User [sherri /209.100.189.161] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:04:27 EDT 2000 now you know the order of significance in this room--we are only second to a dog hi sheri hi hi hi lol amos sorry for pokin g at you on the post, sherri dogs rule at my house too ...in my lap,,, he's a white laplander there are two sherris amos maybe we can devote on nite to a deep discussion of Jerom K. Jerom "THree men in a boat...to say nothing of the dog.?" dry and sweet ? User [vik /204.50.130.141] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:06:29 EDT 2000 dry ...sal...LOL and how many martinis? tastes like christmas tree needles amos or we could have a chat room meditation time....1,2,3, ooooommmmmmm im back good evening hi g hi all hi vik good evening sherri deserves a star for being bearish grains hey, I once drove from San Fransico to Eugine with two girls I picked up as hitchhikers and they ommmmed all the way to their abode we are supposed to get six inches of SNOW suth of Chicago sherri? south not really bearish gary... yes gary a tinge that way :) I am in romeoville sw so I hope it stays south just planted sod will the snow help or hurt the grains? make up your mind about sod: Suplly OR Demand? no...no...no... just thought the open interest and weather and timing were off a bit :) User [Jimbo /63.10.172.170] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:10:21 EDT 2000 amos that is interesting") won't hurt sod hey jimbo did you se e the archives today and see the CRB index the monthlies weekly and daily at support hi mrj yes we got it in the mail , Gary y wonderful.. amos wanted me to send it User [Lavona /207.50.1.165] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:11:41 EDT 2000 amos was it what you wanted? hi mrj, jimbo,drpand lavona it is a very interesting User [fibo /204.119.225.88] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:12:15 EDT 2000 Hello to everyone especailly the monthly hi fibo hello everyone amos would u like to speak on the crb hi fibo lavona...hope you are feeling better it is wonderful, except the horizontal line on the daily which I do not understand what point prompted you to draw it.... Hi Fibo my pen Have improves thanks great Lavona your pen......is........ wrong forget that line than okay discuss the CRB amos would u like to discuss those charts brb User [sherri] left forum at Thu Apr 06 20:13:55 EDT 2000 I just made a great discovery, I now KNOW why the PEN...(is) stronger than the sword!! User [eric /206.98.11.150] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:14:16 EDT 2000 I should use a pencil so I can erase crb please amos.... User [sherri /209.100.189.161] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:14:29 EDT 2000 if you all can open the 3 charts Kelly, graciously sent us--we can start. hi everyone hi eric hi eric charts 1-3 are the daily, weekly and monthly of the CASH CRB I guess I have an advantage, because I have 4 screens--and I can look simultaneiously at the charts and type and then play with another 2 charts User [lmarsh /12.14.197.202] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:17:12 EDT 2000 hi lmarsh hi marsh Hello good friends Are we all looking at the daily? chart no. 1? y y y y Gary drew an uptrendline. THere is another trendline...connecting the last two lows. That trend line is a little lower as of tonite than the curren trendline. There is a horizontal line which I am not sure why Gary drew. If it is supposed to be the last low support (the 206 area we pinpointed here a few nites ago)--the it is OK. But the last high is 209.91. and the high before it is 209.64 if I am not mistaken.. I drew that line for the support at 206 area It is very important to collect facts and data accurately. I see. User [gary fullett] left forum at Thu Apr 06 20:21:30 EDT 2000 User [mrj] left forum at Thu Apr 06 20:21:42 EDT 2000 At any rate. Would you all agree with me that there is an intersting collusion, proximity of the uptrend line and the levf\el of 209.91? User [gary fullett /152.173.70.10] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:22:04 EDT 2000 y y y 210 ish ok, let us go now to the second chart, the weekly, please. The uptrend line is clear. It is the 4th time the market is getting to it. Gann used to say that 4 times is kiss of death. If the line does not hold--it breaks!!! Now the horizontal line of supprt relates to the high of I cannot decipher the date, can anyone help? about 70 weeks ago. miniute.... about oct 98? 10-14 it is a weekly chart so the second week of oct 98? mol high was 210.25 10-15-98 1999, oops it is 112.3.98 and it is a high of 206.53 So I am lookint at the 8.98 as the PS!!! the rally to 11.98 as the rally of the PS and the next decline as a selling climax. This is a wierd SC because it forms a double bottom on the weekly chart. Are you all with me so far? y User [mike /172.129.129.202] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:29:56 EDT 2000 I am now can there be two ps I will reiterate. I choose to define this market as having experienced a PS in 8-11/98... a selling climax durint 2-7/99 and we are now in an AR since 7/99 If this analysis is correct... we are in an AR> You can say....AMOS this is AUTOMATIC RALLY? and I will say. YES. there is no volume on this chart...how do you tell? let us jump for a second to chart 3 and then come back here, ok? it is a cash chart sherri no volume on a cash chart ok sherri, the world is not perfect. You are absolutely right. So we are operating with one hand tied behind our back. this is why the dow chart is better as an index--you HAVE a total NYSE volume. You can replace the futures cumulative volume under this chart--but you need a good software for this. -> how goes it I m working on the software If you are all with me on teh monthly you can grasp the idea of the AR a little easier. -> good, should get app packet into mail tomorrow we had a six month trading range which created huge cause for a very strong rally. Hoever, that rally was not testd yet. Now here is a nice variation of Wyckoff--and that is the main reason I wanted to discuss this chart. -> when ever u send it it is fine -> I like talking with u in general -> so i missed noot trading with u -> me too It is one possibility of a risk transfer process. if you ask me to put the "stars" on this chart--Iwould be hard pressed. -> I think u will do well now with alittle exp User [fibo /204.119.225.88] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 20:37:31 EDT 2000 The SC we look for is usually a sharp decline--we have instead a six month of accumulation. -> most of why i stopped was focus on other stuff, just coincidence that i had taken the losses WHen the CM is capable of accumulating AT the SC for SIX moanths--then we may not have a classical AR and a test. WHY? because he has bought all the stuff he wants. k But, as Wyckoff students--collecting all the facts, without bias, we must be prepared for the fact k that we are still in a MONTHLY AR and we will need further testing. If this is confusing--I am sorry. But SIL=such is life. In this case a good 50X3 (or 35X3) point and figure chart--would give a good answer. I do not have a good P&F chart--so I am half blind on the Cause and Effect part of a good Wyckoff analysis. So, no volume, No P&F and we want to conquer the war. I am reminded of Captain Ahab with one wooden leg strapped to a white whale. -> are you able to grasp this? So, I dream of Greggory Peck at times lol u 2 ! thin ice amos :) at any rate. Keep in mind this monthly chart and let us go back to the weekly, please As of tonite...beginning of April... the weekly CRB is about to reveal its true story. If the 209.91 or so is going to hold then the market respects the horizontal support of last octobeer high ...which was tested, kind of, recently at 206 and was jumped. What are the SALient points (another poor joke of mine, sorry) we can state so far? :) please, contibute... thinking if the weekly chart can not hold at 206, the monthly will test the low again Ok, i will start.1) we are making higher highs and higer lows... 2) the market spent several weeks in a trading range against the previous"Rally of 98 PS") this range looks more as accumulation than distribution, even tho i have no volume -> what do u want to trade when u trade again? 3) the market looks as if it jumped this trading trange 4) it held, so far the weekly uptrendline.... you notice I am not making any judgemnet, only collecting facts>>>? -> started looking at beans as you suggested 5_ the market is NOT overbought 6)I do not know what the long term moving averages are, but if the 21 is corssing now the 55 weekly--then all the MA people are getting BUT signals can any one tell me what the regular, not exponential 21 cross 55 ma doing? -> I'm trying to look at a lot more markets so as to be sure of the wyckoff principles seen to find the no...but it is below the 50 day -> look at cocoa and sugar metal too -> best available opp -> there are books on the site 12 not so angry men and women in one room and not one crossing a MA? -> they will help u I will plug in 21 and 55 did wyckoff use moving averages? who is Wyckoff? -> been looking at them, not decided where to start lol thats what I thought I am collecting info right now and I want to know what the enemy is doing. k fair enough -> start anywhere I told you that I do not trade other systems--but i do not want to trade (especially positions) eagains major MAs against -> read the wyckoff books and rememience of a stock operator -> what is best wyckoff book? arer we waiting for sherri? User [mike] left forum at Thu Apr 06 20:53:14 EDT 2000 ok, point 7) is that from an Edweard and Magee pure flag pattern--if the trading range on the weekly chart was a flag... then it projects to about 226 on the crb it is still above a 34 mov. avg 8) in a more detailed analysis (which is a long process, as you can see) I would also want to look at cycles to see that I do not violate anything very obviouse...but not now 21 crossed 55 in 9-99 fibo, when did the 34 turn up? snerri, is 55 pointing up? yes well, this is another very important piece of information. trending up amos around 12-3-99 you can see, that if i sit long enough I can add more and more points of information. It seems that MAs are supportin this market too. So now let us go back to Wyckoff. The name that was mentioned here a minute ago. ON the weekly chart we seem to have had a: PS; SC; AR AND a test which was the trading ragne of a few weeks ago. WHen you have a secondary test that is holding so high above the SC--this is VEERY BULLISH. ANy one wants to voluntere why? n fair enough. I like honest nonvolunteers. This is a n important point of the process of risk transfer. Jesse Livermore talks about it. You see, when the CM is accumulating-- it is alwyas a problem for him how far should he shake people down. Why? becuase for every weak long he is shaking out--there is another "strong" long lurking around the corner and waiting for him at the lows of the PS. Since we assume that the CM knows arithmetic--he is calculating: Am I going to let those few weak longs to shlepp along? or am I letting the stronger ones get aboard and then I have to deal with them when I come to market to dump my merchendise. This is a very important question that we, shnooks can never know, only in hindsight. However...here we stand (sit) and see a potential secondary test on a weekly chart that is very shallow. If I am reading this correctly--this trendline we started this whole converstion with--is very important. This analysis--the way I see it--says that the CRB is in very strong hands. They are conducting a very sophisticated accumulation campign. . There is no rush, they are not attracting too much attention (the news is still of very little inflation, the bonds are rallying etc etc.) I do not like to equate inflation, bonds to the CRB--but it is part of the process. So.... the crux of all this discussion is: As of tonite---I declare that the CRB is in a very crucial junction. If we hold the 209-210 area and start rallying--chance ar that swe saw a double check of the jump across the 209 creek and a jump and a double back is very bullish. Are you with me so far? y y y -> i m with ya buddy 10-4 What I would like us all, in this room to do in the next 4-6 weeks is: im with ya buddy 10 -4 y 1) keep these three charts in mind and monitor them very carefully. 2) start sniffing around ( eevn I am influenced by all the dogs around) :) Look which group is going to contribute most strongly to a big rally in the crb grains of course :-) leave my dog alone amos fibo :) -> how are you 3) we need to do a good sector analysis--comparing the relative strength of the energies, metals, meats, grains, softs and which ever is going to turn up--we should go with!!! amos do u have a comment about silver? a word is worth silver, silence is worth gold :) how about the grains? Now, this was only half of the analysis. What if the crb breaks here? You see there is a a tow here--I am interested in the larger picture. could just have a spring Yes, but what if we just finished an AR on the monthly and we are stating now several months of secondary test? -> how is your trading going? is class helping you? This is possible--you should always be open to the other 'What if>>>?" anything is possible -> not bad im doin other things here to so not givin my full attention Let us leave this for late, because if the market starts breaking here--that may take longer than a few weeks. at any rate--watch this chart--it should guide us thru the general trend of the grains in the next few weeks. -> tryin to tag along tonite User [Jimbo /63.10.172.170] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 21:13:21 EDT 2000 -> plus im more short term oriented I think that silver and Gold are froming a very nice bottom here, Gary. -> ask anything u like I am glad that u can make it -> me too But the grains are stronger. -> you trade like me:) maybe ine day we can work together -> sure Beans have already pointed to us that the trend is up. amos u always were a bottom guy I see possibilities in the cc and kc We should all jump on the Nov beans once we get a daily thrust! is a bottom in metals a shiny hiney? :) lol@sal yes, sherri, coffee and cocoa are froming a nice bottom too she is spunky what is that dog in your lap doing right now, sal? -> she loves her dog she loves her dog -> sorry User [dpr /206.63.203.220] joined forum at Thu Apr 06 21:16:26 EDT 2000 if i dont take him out soon he may be doing something gold colored ! lol liquid gold sal? :) and this is men's best friend? yep I am thru thanks amos you didn't say HAOOK thanks or whatever the 519-1/2 in the beans may be a target of many stop--so watch that level May beans, that is -> well i will open the forum to questions I will open the forum to questions creek line at 520 does anyone have any questions from the week thanks yes fibo...on p and f chart also I think may beans support 518-523 level However, this reaction in the beans whould be a place for everyone in this chat room to get long! thanks sherri at least a midam if the market breaks hard again call options could be cheap as well