User [gary fullett /152.202.54.2] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 19:56:10 EDT 2000
<sherri> hi gary
<gary fullett> hi 
<sherri> tried the book thing on home page...it doesn't work...sorry
<gary fullett> really
<sherri> yep
<gary fullett> hmmm. i have to tell kelly
<sherri> ok
<gary fullett> thank you for telling me
<sherri> been wanting the one that weis helped to write
<gary fullett> did u order it yet?
<sherri> no
<sherri> haven't found it yet
<gary fullett> oky I will get it to work tomorrow by calling amazon
User [sal /206.175.230.8] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 19:58:02 EDT 2000
<sherri> not on amazon
<gary fullett> I have it
<gary fullett> on the site I will get them to make it work :)
<gary fullett> hi sal
<sherri> if you find it get it and I will send you the money
<sherri> please
<sal> hi
<sherri> plus shipping
<sherri> hi sal
<gary fullett> okay.. I will get it I will ask the btter halfkelly :)
<sal> which one ya talking bout sherri
<sherri> need to read so I understand better
<gary fullett> wild day today
<sherri> boy wasn't it
<gary fullett> sal did u get my last email?
<gary fullett> but a great day
<sherri> are beans going up or down from here//
<sal> can we say VOLATILIY
<gary fullett> I am happy all clients made money
<gary fullett> I love this
<sal> regarding cme? yep
<gary fullett> that is why onw must use stops
<gary fullett> k
<sal> CLAP CLAP CLAP
<gary fullett> and the other ( fill)
<gary fullett> high was 80
<sal> yes fill on one right ?
<gary fullett> yes...
<gary fullett> midam
<sal> thnx
<gary fullett> is a name at the merc and cbot
User [mrj /209.16.79.66] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:01:29 EDT 2000
<sherri> hi mrj
<gary fullett> they have mid am hogs and mid am bonds
<gary fullett> mr j did u get the right charts
User [chris /63.14.212.72] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:01:56 EDT 2000
<sherri> hi chris
<gary fullett> does any one understand what happened today?
User [Jack /63.29.110.110] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:02:16 EDT 2000
<sherri> cleaned house
User [Guest /205.198.25.253] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:02:23 EDT 2000
<chris> <Enter Text Here>hi everyone
<gary fullett> perfect CM action
User [SteveF /209.214.192.125] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:02:33 EDT 2000
<mrj> Hi everyone 
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:02:40 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> i wanted to mention a trick they did today
<sherri> don't like company right?
<gary fullett> if u go back to the crash of 87
<mrj> No Gary I think the problem on my end thanks
User [TraderA /149.99.70.243] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:03:05 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> the market wsas down over 530 points as well
<SteveF> Hello All
<gary fullett> that is what they did to the Nasdaq today :)
<sherri> hi steve
<davep> hi everyone<Enter Text Here>
<gary fullett> k mtr j
<sherri> and dave
User [Peggy /206.173.174.234] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:03:46 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> interesting they went to that same level
<Peggy> evening, all
User [eric /206.98.11.159] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:03:54 EDT 2000
<sherri> is that what they did on beans too gary?
<sherri> hi peggy and eric
<gary fullett> it was like an equivaent break of 1100 points in the dow
<mrj> hi sherri missed your "hi"
<gary fullett> great question sherri
<sherri> hi hi hi everybody
<eric> hi sherri and everyone
<gary fullett> why do tyou all think 
<mrj> :)
<gary fullett> all markets expect the metals were down today
<gary fullett> and ocoa
<gary fullett> cocoa
<gary fullett> when people panic
<sherri> don't know for sure...but open interest has really been crowced
<sherri> crowded
<gary fullett> they sel stocks and commodities to raise cash
<gary fullett> so the Public sells everything
<Peggy> if it was a shelter, gold would be higher, wouldn't it?
<sal> so gold was flight to quality?
<sherri> could be....going to be some margin calls tomorrow
<gary fullett> where do u think traders go when they are panicing?
<gary fullett> yes.
<gary fullett> sal 
<gary fullett> I hope you were long :)
<gary fullett> gold and bonds...
<sal> to the bathroom to upchuck
User [amos /62.0.146.65] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:06:06 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> welcome amos
<Peggy> lol@sal
<gary fullett> did everyone get charts?
<sherri> bon soir amos
<sal> y
<Peggy> yes
<SteveF> yes
<gary fullett> sal :)
<amos> hi
User [jim /171.212.93.197] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:06:30 EDT 2000
<Jack> y
<davep> hi amos
<davep> y
<jim> hi,all.
<gary fullett> wonderful lots to talk about tonight
<gary fullett> hi Jim
<chris> y
<sal> so is move in gold over for now?
<sal> still looks good
<gary fullett> it looks good buy support on a pullback to the 283 area
<gary fullett> I want to get right into charts tonight
<sherri> gary...something to watch in the beans....the stars 14-21......is it possible that that is what we are going to form here?
<sal> k
<gary fullett> and amos will talk about more principles
<gary fullett> I will let amos talk on beans if he has something to say after I finish other charts okay
<sherri> ok
<gary fullett> grainsa re very interesting
<gary fullett> I would imagine they will open higher tomorrow
<gary fullett> due to the stock market closing well today
<gary fullett> I want to talk about trading ranges
<gary fullett> Rice.. May
<gary fullett> look at the horizonatl line at the 601 area
<gary fullett> this is the top of the range
<gary fullett> resisatnce
<gary fullett> look at the 555 area
<gary fullett> this is the bottom of the range support
<gary fullett> the action between these levels
User [Dene /207.50.1.160] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:11:09 EDT 2000
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> is traders picking each other pockets
<eric> 
<Dene> hello everyone
<gary fullett> many trader get hurt within the range
<mrj> hi dene
<sherri> hi dene
<gary fullett> they try to pick support for a rally
<gary fullett> and try to sell rallies
<gary fullett> only to get stop out WITHIN the range
<gary fullett> when it gets to the top of the range
<gary fullett> poeple become bullish
<gary fullett> only to get disappointed
User [fibo /204.119.225.82] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:12:27 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> for a retest to the bottom of the range
<sherri> hi fibo
<gary fullett> look at how long the market has been in this range
<Peggy> hi, Fibo
<mrj> hi fibo
<gary fullett> for 2 months
<Peggy> Dene, May rice, from charts this evening
<fibo> hello everyone..isp was slow
<gary fullett> this market is building cause 
<eric> hi fibo
<sherri> rice fibo
<gary fullett> for a large move
<sal> rice is simmering , eady to boil?
<gary fullett> this could be some beautifil accumulation 
<gary fullett> we need to watch the acytion at support
<gary fullett> as well at the top of the range
<fibo> thanks sherri
<gary fullett> the larger the Cause
<jim> how does the weekly look like?
<gary fullett> the larger the effect
<gary fullett> or move
<gary fullett> I didnt send it
<gary fullett> but I looked at it last week
User [Tom /147.72.69.187] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:14:31 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and it appears to me to be under largr accumaltion
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> this is why amos
<gary fullett> and I
<amos> 
<gary fullett> always harps on the horizontal support and resisatnce
<gary fullett> this market
<jim> can we say that the trend has turned yet?
<TraderA> 
<gary fullett> is not forming sloping trendlines
<SteveF> 
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> but it is forming a trading range
<gary fullett> within in 45 cent range
<gary fullett> this back and filling 
<gary fullett> or rallies and breaks
<gary fullett> within this range
<gary fullett> is caused by the CM to "chop up traders,
<gary fullett> and to wear and tear them
<eric> 
<gary fullett> but the Cm is buying the breaks at support
<jim> a question for gary?
<gary fullett> and selling som e at support
<gary fullett> please Jim
<Peggy> is the monetary height of the trading range an indication of how high it will go?
<jim> how about buying december calls?
<gary fullett> hmm not a bad idea in my mind
<jim> thanks.
<gary fullett> do you see this trading range that I speak of?
<sherri> y
<sal> y
<Jack> y
<SteveF> y
<gary fullett> questions?
<mrj> y
<Peggy> y
<eric> y
<jim> how does amos see rice?
<gary fullett> with his eyes I suppose :)
<jim> :)
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment on rice
<gary fullett> the purpose of this chart was to show
<gary fullett> horizonatal siupport and ressistance
<amos> the answer to Peggy 's q about the width of the range having a predictive power
<gary fullett> lots of money can be made within a trading range
<amos> --Not according to Wyckoff. But some people believe in double bottom projecting at least double the range.
<amos> I would rahter look at the point and figure count
<jim> this range is the time period, right?
<gary fullett> comment on Rice amos?
<sherri> 
<davep> 
<Jack> 
<Peggy> thank you. 
<amos> I have to look at the monthly chart before I can say any thing intelligent!
<sal> 
<jim> thanks.
<chris> 
<gary fullett> u alsways say intelligent things :)
<TraderA> 
<gary fullett> any other questions on rice?
<amos> If this range is accumulation then it is fine to buy Dec calls. If it is not--then it is a sorry waste of money
<amos> Much better to sell some premium in a range
<jim> vol and price relationship is good....
<jim> sell a put...
<gary fullett> okay..
<gary fullett> watch the 2 levels in rice they will be important for a move
<gary fullett> silver
<gary fullett> nope lets back up Aussie dollar
<gary fullett> I Mentioned this chart yesterday
<gary fullett> last night breifly and I mentioend that the low 6000 was support
<gary fullett> actaully the 6015 area
<gary fullett> this was the low of the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> from last march
<gary fullett> see this?
<gary fullett> the market then rallied
<Peggy> y
<Dene> 
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> to the 6160 area
<gary fullett> then broke back to the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> t about 6020 mid march
<eric> 
<gary fullett> then a quick rally
<gary fullett> and a break today to 6008
<gary fullett> the reason why I mnetioned this yesterday to you the market was nearing
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> the bottom of ites recent range
<gary fullett> the market opened today at the 6035 area
User [Jeff /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:26:41 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> so a buy with a stop under the 60 area
<gary fullett> was a good buy
<gary fullett> I like to buy the bottom of trading ranges
<gary fullett> if the volume back to support is light
<gary fullett> this to me means lack of supply
<jim> did last decline on increasing vol?
<gary fullett> or selling 
<gary fullett> so to me it is a low risk trade to buy the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> place a stop under the previous lows
<mrj> Did we have a "spring" today?
<gary fullett> but far enough away feom a possible spring
<gary fullett> i am getting there Mr J
<mrj> k
<gary fullett> but it didnt break support jim
<jim> also, this isnt enough accumulation, is it?
<gary fullett> market have a great propensity
<gary fullett> to hold psychological
<gary fullett> areas
<gary fullett> like 6000 
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> 6008 was the low today
<gary fullett> what is important when buying support
<gary fullett> as I mentioend
<gary fullett> many times is the Reaction that it has
<gary fullett> well the market rallied from 6008 to 6084 today
<gary fullett> nice action huh
<gary fullett> ?
<SteveF> yes
<sherri> y
<gary fullett> so the quality of the rally was good
<Jack> y
<Peggy> y
<TraderA> 
<amos> 
<sal> does Aussie react to any other markets?
<fibo> 
<eric> y
<gary fullett> if the market went to 6008 and closed at 6019 what would this have told u about the quality of the rally
<gary fullett> sal I am glad u asked I will explain
<gary fullett> the qualiity would have been poor
<gary fullett> and support at the bottom of the range would probably be broken
<Dene> 
<gary fullett> but since the quality of the raly the price action was good it appears that support held well
<gary fullett> now the low in march was 6015 todays low
<gary fullett> was 6008
<gary fullett> it wasnt really a spring to a great degree
<gary fullett> as the support was only taken out by 7 points
<gary fullett> but if u want to call 6008 low a spring of 6015
<gary fullett> a small spring okay then
<gary fullett> but do you see where buying support
<gary fullett> is important
<gary fullett> and that u can limit your risk even if you are wrong
User [mrj] left forum at Tue Apr 04 20:33:58 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> if you bought the opening today your risk would have been 35 dollars
<gary fullett> if your stop was under 6000 cents
<gary fullett> the reward is back to resistance at 6180 at least
<chris> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> so 150 point profit 350 risk
User [Tom /147.72.69.187] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:34:44 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> bout 4 to 2
<gary fullett> definetly a good risk to reward trade..
<gary fullett> do u see this support 
<Jack> 
User [mrj /209.16.79.66] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:35:09 EDT 2000
<sal> y
<sherri> y
<gary fullett> and see this resistance
<gary fullett> this trading range
<gary fullett> like rice to me
<gary fullett> amos and tend to disagree
<gary fullett> about buying this type of support
<gary fullett> but I have founfd it sucessful to my trading
<jim> is ad a thin market?
<gary fullett> but again I wanted to point out the trainfg range
<gary fullett> and buying support at the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> and to sell resisatnce at the top of the range
<gary fullett> decent money can be made 
<davep> 
<gary fullett> with limited risk
<eric> 
<gary fullett> yes aussie is thin
<jim> would you also sell at top of range?
<gary fullett> but to me a chart is a chart
<gary fullett> hey the Nasadq is pretty thin
<sal> let's call mrj's spring a "slinky"
<gary fullett> yes Jim
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> sal
<SteveF> : )
<gary fullett> I like to do that jim
<mrj> :) sal
<TraderA> 
<sherri> is a spring a reaction to support?
<gary fullett> buy support sell ressiatnce but keep a small position
<gary fullett> yes it is desinged
<gary fullett> to take out sell stops
<gary fullett> weak longs
<gary fullett> again the use of horizontal support and resisatnce
<gary fullett> to me this market is undergoing accumaultion
<gary fullett> questions on the aussie dollar?
<sal> my ? earlier....
<gary fullett> gold vs aussie
<sherri> hate to ask again...but till I get the book ...just have to put up with it...what is a spring?
<gary fullett> amos sand pure wyckoff people whom I am one but I do know some fundamnetal
<gary fullett> close your ears
<gary fullett> 1 sec sherri
<gary fullett> australia
<gary fullett> has lots of gold in reserves
<gary fullett> when gold rallies it tends to support the aussie dollar
<gary fullett> that is fundamental
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> but when I watch it
<gary fullett> it seems to work
<gary fullett> gold near it lows
<gary fullett> aussie near it lows
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> so I believe htere is a corraltion
<gary fullett> there
<gary fullett> correlation
<gary fullett> okay sal
<sherri> is their currency backed with gold?
<gary fullett> now back to sherris q
<sal> k thanks
<gary fullett> not sure
<gary fullett> but I know there seems to be a correlation
<gary fullett> i watch it,,,
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> sheeri
<gary fullett> sherri
<TraderA> 
<gary fullett> when a market has developed
<Dene> 
<gary fullett> a trading range
<gary fullett> horizontal one
<amos> 
<gary fullett> with support and resisatnce
<gary fullett> when the market goes under
<gary fullett> the bottom of the range and closes back within the range
<gary fullett> this is a spring of support
<gary fullett> or the trading range
<gary fullett> if it breakds resisatnce
<gary fullett> and falls back into the trading range this is calledan upthrust
<sherri> thank you very much
<gary fullett> does this help sherri and others?
<sal> y
<Jack> y
<sherri> yep
<Peggy> yes
<gary fullett> does everyone know now spring and upthusts
<amos> 
<fibo> 
<sherri> y
<chris> y
<eric> y
<gary fullett> it is designed to take out stop
<Jack> y
<Peggy> they only happen in trading ranges???
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> CM doesnt like company rememebr
<gary fullett> eyp
<Jeff> 
<gary fullett> yep
<gary fullett> I will show a good example
<amos> springs are a big thing with Wyckoff. There are three types of them depending
<gary fullett> amos told me that soemtimes a spring can happen over a period of several days
<amos> on the depth of penetration, and volume associated. But the general concept is that is is
<gary fullett> amos can u explain spring and upthust for a few minutes
<amos> like you press on a meralic speing and let go and it jumps!!!
<amos> to give a full discussion, I have to preapare myself and I am not prepared.
<sherri> is there usually big volume?
<gary fullett> okay maybe on thursday night
<gary fullett> generally volume picks up sherri
<gary fullett> because there is a treansference of risk
<gary fullett> and the stops are being executed
<amos> you do not know the volume, but it has significance as to the conclusions you can deduct about it
<TraderA> Present on intraday timeframes as well, I presume?
<gary fullett> yes trader a
<Jack> 
<gary fullett> this takes me to my last chart for tonight before I turn the reigns over to amos
<sal> is it like a race car , the more vibration (volitility) the heavier the springs needed?
<gary fullett> hmmm..
<gary fullett> Silver
<SteveF> 
<Peggy> 
<eric> 
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> it has had a tradin range from 520 to 503
<Jack> 
<davep> 
<gary fullett> see this from late feb till now
<Jack> y
<fibo> y
<gary fullett> look what hapened 4 days ago
<sherri> y
<gary fullett> market broke the bottom of the range
<gary fullett> this is called a Break of the ice
<gary fullett> when u break the bottom of the trading range to the downside
<gary fullett> it is like breaking the floor or on an ice pond ice
<gary fullett> what is the opposite of a brreak of the ice
User [willard /24.7.201.161] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:52:44 EDT 2000
<sherri> joc
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> when it breaks above resisatnce of a trading range
<sal> joc
<gary fullett> YES
<fibo> joc
<gary fullett> Jump over the creek JOC
<gary fullett> wonderful
<gary fullett> everyone undersatnd?
<gary fullett> great!!!!!!
<TraderA> 
<gary fullett> now if this was a breaking of the ice
<gary fullett> what should have happend?
<jim> further decline
<gary fullett> right Jim
<Peggy> continue downward on heavy volume and large price range?
<sal> not returned to range
<davep> lower los on higher vol
<gary fullett> what happened the next day after the break of the ice
User [Jimbo /63.31.228.233] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 20:54:25 EDT 2000
<Peggy> good volume on up move
<jim> close on hi
<sal> someone drowned
<gary fullett> the volume dried up only 1 /2 of the day before
<Peggy> lol@sal
User [Jeff] left forum at Tue Apr 04 20:54:42 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> and the close was not sharply lower
<fibo> :-)
<gary fullett> but higher for the day
<gary fullett> and at its highs
<gary fullett> action one would not have expected right
<gary fullett> something fishy in Denmark huh?
<sherri> why wouldn't this be a sc?
<gary fullett> this should have alarmed u that
<gary fullett> that this may not have been a break of the ice
<gary fullett> but maybe a 2 day Spring
<gary fullett> look at the next day
<gary fullett> a good rally
<gary fullett> look at the close
<gary fullett> supply isnt coming in
<Jimbo> what chart? (sorry late)
<Dene> 
<gary fullett> the next day the market finished back
<fibo> silver
<gary fullett> into the trading range
<eric> Is it a terminal shakeout?
<Jimbo> thx fibo
<gary fullett> tyesterday
<gary fullett> silver
<gary fullett> eric yes
<gary fullett> it is interesting that todays rally
<gary fullett> coincided with the stock market getting hit early today
<gary fullett> questions on silver
<gary fullett> its trading range spring action ect,,?
<sherri> where did it close?
<gary fullett> 516 50
<gary fullett> but look where the market went to today
<eric> 516.50
<gary fullett> to the top of the range
<sherri> volume was small
<gary fullett> at the 520 area
<gary fullett> so if u bought support u could have sold resisatnce
<gary fullett> 1k range
<gary fullett> any other questions
<gary fullett> do u see the significance
<gary fullett> of a trading range horizonatl
<gary fullett> and now a spring
<gary fullett> start to draw horizonatl support and resisatnce
<gary fullett> as well as trading ranges
<gary fullett> well.. I have had ny say
<gary fullett> amos want to speak on the beans and on cocoa
<gary fullett> he has some good thoughts on cocoa
<sal> so we want to enter after spring so we arent victim of spring?
<gary fullett> which I labeled
<gary fullett> buy at the 503 area
<gary fullett> stop under 490
<gary fullett> that is the next pschcoigical level
<gary fullett> 650 risk though
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> amos the forum is yours......
<fibo> 
<mrj> 
<amos> sal, what do you mean risk of spring?
<Jack> 
<Peggy> 
<sal> well if we had bot support before
<davep> 
<sal> spring that spring would have stopped us out ?
User [Jack] left forum at Tue Apr 04 21:02:49 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> she wanted to know if u buy what do u need to rik as not to get stopped out
<gary fullett> but a spring can still get u
<gary fullett> it should be placed far enough away
<gary fullett> and away from other weak stops
<chris> 
<amos> so it is not the RISK of the spring, but being aware of this phenomon can save you some agony and money.
User [eric /206.98.11.159] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 21:03:33 EDT 2000
User [Name already in use /24.7.201.161] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 21:03:35 EDT 2000
<sherri> 
<amos> If you are prepared for a mrket behavior and it does not surprise you--you are better equipped for this war.
<Dene> 
<sal> k
<amos> Please look at chart # 2.
<TraderA> 
<amos> I asked Gary to number 4 points
<amos> 1 2 3 4 
<Peggy> cocoa
<amos> This is July Cocoa.
<mrj> what is chart 2?
<mrj> ok
<amos> I would like us to follow this chart in the next few weeks and see if Wyckoff can help ,. or is it
<amos> just a bunch of crocky gobbledigook.
<amos> First, you may ask why did I mark star #1 where I marked it?
<amos> Good question. You could say that the first support in 11/99 was the PS.
<amos> Interesting enough the rally of 11.29.99 on the left was 974 
<amos> The high 2 weeks ago was 973.
<amos> So market respected that high very clearly.
<amos> The truth is--that I cannot justify this count of the stars.
<amos> But it is conveneint for the purpose of understanding the process.
<amos> BTW, please be aggressive in your questions.
<amos> The meek DOES inherit the earth when it comes to the marketplace.
<amos> The market DOES NOT respect niceness. WHen it senses that you are weak it will pounce
<amos> on you.
<amos> So, you must learn to be tough. Ask all the question, until you understand something.
<amos> So we have star # 1 and we call it PS.
<amos> It may be that the low 6 days before #1 is the PS.
<amos> The important thing to understand is that each one of these theoretical "stars"
<sherri> 
<eric> 
<Peggy> 
<amos> is not necessarily a "point", but a process. It can take days, weeks and longer.
<amos> But it represents a part of the process of accumulation.
<amos> Remember that TIME is one of the elements that the CM can manipulate.
<amos> He always had more time than we have. His horizon is long. He can sit and wait and wait and then
<amos> move the market in a short peiod --to reach his goal. He makes his money in the long run. He does not have to get paid.
<amos> He does not have to pay rent etc.
<Jimbo> his decisions not external
<amos> So, if # 1 and the following rally to Star # 2 represent the PS and the rally avter it-- THen these two levels
<amos> should be, according to Wyckoff,be levels that the market will respect later on.
<amos> Thus the horizontal lines at 1 and 2 are significant.
<sal> 
<amos> I will say again. Many times the market relates to points of support and resistance that occured prior
<amos> to lower highs and lowx relative to these points.
<mrj> 
<amos> Point # 3 is lower than 1. But the market will continue to relate to point 1.
<amos> People tend to look only at extremes.
<amos> Remember, very little trading (Risk transfer) is taking place at those extremems.
<fibo> 
<SteveF> 
<Peggy> 
<amos> They are apoint on the chart-- but other points,. less extreme--may turn out to be more significant from a point of view of the CM.
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<chris> 
<amos> Jesse Livermore likes to Quote, Keene. He was probably one the shartpest traders that ever lived.
<TraderA> 
<davep> 
<Dene> 
<amos> At least, Jesse talks about him with reverence. This is like Richard Feynman talking with Reverence about Beithe or Bohr as GREAT minds.
<amos> Keene use to say to people who asked him to distribute their stock.
<amos> He said: "You want to sell the bulk of your stock at $100>"
<amos> I cannot do this.
<amos> But, I can raise to 120(!) and sell it on the way down.
<amos> What is he saying (he is dead, he is saying nothing, he DID say)
<amos> He is saying that at extemes, very little trading can take place.
<sal> so 1-2 is like the normal width of a rubber band ...and 3-4 are stretched widths?
<amos> But people have a tendency to look at extreme prices and imaging that the market will
<amos> try to get back to those prices. Not necessarily.
<amos> Rubber bands....hmmmmmm sal good imagination
<amos> So, if # 3 is a selling climax--then we should see an automatic rally.
<Jimbo> would better resistance be around 920?
<amos> Did we get an AR?
<sherri> y
<amos> yes we did.
<amos> Now here is a catcher.
<mrj> y
<amos> On the "small" chart we all borrowed from SMI point 4 is LOWER than point 2.
<amos> How can that be?
<amos> This is why I wanted Gary to present this chart.
<amos> The starry chart is a sechema.
<amos> It is the general idea. It will have zillion apparitions. The little differences, should not phase you out.
<amos> You shoule ask yourself what is the meaning of this veering away from the standard?
<amos> On the surface, I would say that the fact that point 4 is higher that point 2--implies , in the long run
<amos> stronger demand forces than usualy.
<amos> There is great danger in generalization. Most people like stricter instructions.
<amos> Love thy Neigbor as thyself--is one of the hardest commandment to follow.
<amos> It is easy to say--but how do you love some one? and what does it mean as thyself?
<eric> 
<amos> Do you have to be an egoist, before you can love others?
<Dene> 
<amos> The sage that said that statement explained the whole Bible with that short statemtn.
User [gary fullett /152.202.54.2] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 21:23:45 EDT 2000
<amos> When the person who asked him: "AND???????"
<amos> he said--the rest of the Bible is just "interpretation."
<amos> So, if I say that the Ar is highr than the rally of the PS-- you can assume that the market is much
<amos> stronger than usual.
<amos> It is possible that the TRUE PS was in Novemeber 99 --then the AR barely made the rally of the PS.
<amos> But then you can ask--if the point on 11.29.99 at the left side of chart #2 is the PS.
<amos> 
<Peggy> nite, all
User [Peggy] left forum at Tue Apr 04 21:25:45 EDT 2000
<amos> What kind of selling climax did we get?
<TraderA> 
<sherri> nite peggy
<mrj> nite 
<amos> Too late to say gn to Peggy)
<amos> we alwyas say gn after the person already left.
<sherri> yep
<amos> The distance between stars 2 and 3 looks short on the schematic chart. Here it looks that it stretched
<amos> 2 months. Is this possible?
<sherri> what does the weekly chart look like/
<amos> Unfortunately--yes.
<amos> This is why Wyckoff can be so difficult. You have very differtnt physical representation of the principle.We go back to
<amos> the 6 blind men and the elephant.
<amos> Looking at different time frames, is certainly one cure, so sherri, you are right by asking your question.
<Dene> 
<amos> But if you get to a point where things fall in place--then you are able to follow the Cm well.
<amos> Last nite Peggy asked a question on buying the market on the secondary test from teh AR.
<amos> This is a good chart to show you how difficult this can be.
<amos> If you want to buy "support" after you think youw saw a SC and AR--do you think it is easy?
<gary fullett> 
<amos> Sometimes it is and sometimes you can get killed.
<amos> I can tell you horror stories how I SAW markets, predicted them uncannily accurate,and lost my ass because I erntered
<amos> too early after the AR.
<amos> 
<amos> This is the main reason why I swtiched to the thrust method.
<amos> I want at least to see a sign of demand (a higher high) before I enter.
<amos> The funny thing is, that when you look at long term charts and you identigy
<amos> majore accumulation, with rather classical Wyckoff behavior-- and when you identify the first
<amos> 4 stars and you saliva is all over your keyboard-- if you wait
<amos> for a WEEKLY thrust after the secondary test-- you are more than likely to catch a big trend tha
<amos> will never get your stops.
<amos> BJUT..........BUT........
<amos> here comes the scorpion ( I am pices)
<amos> the problem with knowledge--is that it gives you sometimes
<amos> a false sense of power.
<sal> 
<amos> Please beware.
<TraderA> 
<eric> 
<SteveF> 
<mrj> 
<amos> Beware Mdcuff, beware the ides of March and beware false confidense.
<chris> 
<fibo> 
<Jimbo> 
<amos> If you say to yourself:" Self, I know you saw this
<amos> and I know you saw this--nnow what should you do?
<amos> Alwasy remember that you must let the market prove to you that its intentions is as your prediction.
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<amos> If you are afraid to "lose" the move--what you are saying is that "YOU ARE NOT SURE" of your analysis.
<amos> Back to cocoa.
<gary fullett> 
<amos> I we saw indeed an Ar and we are seeing point 5 which is a secondary test. And this
<amos> secondary test respects the level of point 1 which is the PS--then this can be a very nice
<amos> process of accumulation.
<sherri> 
<amos> Now you tell me where is the creek?
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 21:36:53 EDT 2000
<sherri> 9.74
<eric> point 2?
<amos> $974 per ton. yes sherri.
<SteveF> hmm or is it #4
<amos> If in the next few weeks we see a rally to 974 and we like the structure of the volume and the price
<amos> that is we detemine that it is GOOD demand--we would expect a jump across that level.
<amos> That jump can be deep, or shallow. After that jump we will be nearing star number 9.
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<amos> I hope we can follow this chart, come back to it from time to time--and see if Wyckoff analysis really works
<amos> is this ok with you people?
<sherri> yep
<fibo> y
<davep> y
<Jimbo> y
<jim> y
<amos> good
<gary fullett> 
<amos> If you can look at the weekly, monthly and add more information--that will be very nice
<jim> will do.
<sal> 
<amos> I am done
<fibo> beans?
<sherri> monthy looks nice
<gary fullett> very nice
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment on beans?>
<amos> First of all, beans have done something that historically has been a very good signal.
<amos> Old timers "know" that when April goes above Jan-March highs--we are in a bull year.
<amos> Now we have identified here a nice accumulation going back to last July.
<sherri> I'll drink to that
<gary fullett> how old is an old timer
<amos> The big mark up maybe weeks away--but the market behaves like a bull market.
<gary fullett> maybe the Chicago bulls will get back on top :)
<sal> :)
<amos> An old time has experienced the 1973 bull market
<gary fullett> I started in 81 so I am not an old timer
<amos> you are a babe in the woods
<amos> .
<gary fullett> yes sir
<sherri> be careful amos...you are about to fall thru the ice
<gary fullett> :)
<fibo> lol
<SteveF> long gas lines and jewlry beeing melted d
<amos> The imporatant point is to mark all the points of support, the fibonacci numvers, the 50%.
<amos> Llook at the oscillators and ONLY take buy signals!!
<amos> etc.
<gary fullett> where would u buy beans at amos what area ?
<davep> 
<amos> i would try the CBOT building
<sal> :)
<gary fullett> not on wacker drive
<Dene> 
<amos> Jackson and Lasalle
<amos> You should look to buy NOv beans.
<amos> compare points and levels of support in may, july, nov contracts. One of them may give
<amos> a clearer picture.
<mrj> 
<amos> You simply have to be very keen and alert to watch market geometry now.
<sherri> we still have a -29 basis
<sal> please elaborate sherri
<amos> Forget the basis, treat each contract as separate business proposal with its own entery points and stops
<sherri> cash is below nearby futures that much sal
<sal> thnx
<chris> 
<fibo> 
<amos> At this point, with no dorought- this is a normal carrying charges market
<sherri> no
<jim> does that mean we should not use CRB to help a bean trade?
<amos> why not?
<sherri> way too wide
<jim> each has its own ....
<Jimbo> crb?\
<amos> Sherri, did you actually check this historically and when the basis is that wide in April , it bodes ill for the market?
<sherri> should be average of about -7 now
<sherri> fibo...you got averages on that?
<mrj> commodity research bureau Jimbo
<fibo> no i sure don't sherri
<Jimbo> thx mrj
<amos> This may be an interesting point to check, Gary do you know anything about the relation of th e basis at this time of year?
<sherri> I can tell you amos this is very wide for this time of year
<Dene> 
<amos> The reason I am interested--is becuase this relates to the techincal aspect of relative strength.
<gary fullett> I am a cub fan and we never make it to first basis
<sal> :)
<gary fullett> no i lnow wht the baisis is
<gary fullett> but I dont know how to make money from it
<gary fullett> to me it is factored in the market
<gary fullett> and people in the know knwo that the basisi is where it is
<amos> Sherri says it is TOO WIDE for this time of year--which means no demand of cash product
<gary fullett> so they may take advantage of it
<gary fullett> but I dont
<sherri> the elevators don't want or need our grain...that is what is telling you
<gary fullett> I understand that is what it means
<amos> Do you want to sell now? and WHY?
<gary fullett> but as amos always tells me
<sherri> no
<gary fullett> " how do we make money from this "
<Dene> one likes to know what he can make on a crop before he plants it
<gary fullett> so you want to buy Nove meber ann sell may
<amos> Gary, this is an important issue--you are comparing relative strength of various contract and cash is the "front month"
<sal> were you referring to cash vs july or nov?
<davep> 
<gary fullett> so one would buy Niv and sell May
<gary fullett> ?
<sherri> cash is nearby until delivery starts
<willard> <Enter Text Here>very interesting chat
<eric> 
<sal> k
<gary fullett> hey willard
<gary fullett> sherri is that what it means?
<sherri> then they move basis to next month
<amos> You should be here when the Marx brothers join us, willard
<gary fullett> lol
<gary fullett> Amos that is willard Sparks 
<gary fullett> be nice
<amos> with the crocodile boots?
<willard> all chi town gab
<gary fullett> sherri how can we benefit from this basis
<gary fullett> amos is in israel willard
<willard> as a windy city
<sherri> help...just know that it is not good when the basis is that wide
<gary fullett> so u r bearish beans?
<sherri> no demand
<sherri> no
<sal> so sherri you're saying futures move towards cash?
<gary fullett> i understand that sherri
<sherri> weather could change that but for now it is a bad sign
<gary fullett> so if no demand how can u be bullish
<sherri> weather
<gary fullett> one should sell if the basiisi is like that
<fibo> i think the fact that the price is going up shows demand
<amos> sherri, one minute, if farmers are not selling ( and I hear the do not) what is the significance of the price the elevator is offerin?
<gary fullett> sherri I have a question..
<gary fullett> how long has the basisi been that way?
<sherri> got to sell sometime
<sherri> all year
<amos> The chart says accumulaion!!!
<mrj> 
<fibo> prices are going up
<gary fullett> so why has the market rallied 50 cents over the last few weeks?
<gary fullett> this is intersting
<sherri> not saying the basis won't change ...just saying it hasn't yet
<sal> y
<amos> here is another project--all, please study the long term charts of beans and see if you can detect
<gary fullett> i think the CM :knows something
<amos> interesting points of support and res
<fibo> bingo Gary
<gary fullett> It is interesting that on negative news the arket goes up
<gary fullett> hmmmm
<gary fullett> i think this is PERFECT wyckoff
<gary fullett> negative news
<gary fullett> market moves up
<gary fullett> as the cm buys all that is sold
<gary fullett> and marks up prices
<sherri> do you people understand what a dp contract is?
<sal> n
<gary fullett> then when the market goes to 580 or something like that
<gary fullett> the basisi narrows
<gary fullett> people get bullish and we explode
<gary fullett> just thinking out load :)(
<davep> 
<willard> who is cm
<amos> dp=dont pay?
<SteveF> deffered payment
<gary fullett> I think this is the cm keeping quiet when the bearish news is there
<sherri> deferred price...cheaper than a warehouse receipt
<gary fullett> amos what do u think of my assesment ? 
<gary fullett> fibo?
<amos> if we knew the cm we would be one, willard
<sherri> the elevator has control over the movement of grain
<gary fullett> composite man willard
<amos> what is esment?
<gary fullett> the "people in the know"
<sherri> farmer has turned over control
<sherri> they don't have to bid up to get the grain
<sal> y
<fibo> agree gary
<gary fullett> :)
<sal> my cousin farms 2000
<gary fullett> i think it is perfect huh fibo :)
<Dene> good night and thanks for the lesson
User [Dene] left forum at Tue Apr 04 22:05:03 EDT 2000
<gary fullett> dene thanx for joining
<sal> + and he agrees with sherri bout control 
<eric> 
<gary fullett> the cubs have a bad farm team
<gary fullett> they have been farming for 100 yrs
<gary fullett> and cant do well
<amos> soybeans are at support above last high--so watch for a buy signal
User [Guest /63.29.95.237] joined forum at Tue Apr 04 22:05:55 EDT 2000
<chris> 
<amos> I am going to work, folks
<fibo> mornin
<fibo> amos
<amos> gn
<jim> thanks.
<Jimbo> gm amos
<SteveF> bye amoa ..thanks
<mrj> gn
<davep> gn amos
<sherri> bye.thanks
<gary fullett> well i will say good night and see u tomorrow night
<jim> ng
<amos> de nada
<jim> gn
<eric> thanks amos
User [amos] left forum at Tue Apr 04 22:06:46 EDT 2000
<willard> who is buying beans
<fibo> nite gary thanks
<gary fullett> see u all at 7pm tomorrow for the beginners class
<Jimbo> gn gary
<sal> farm bureau convention in houston
<mrj> gn all
<davep> night gary
<eric> gn to all
<sal> in jan look at corn after that...
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<Jimbo> gn all
<SteveF> nite all
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<gary fullett> good night
<willard> gn all
<gary fullett> see u tomoorow
<sal> all farmers were expecting worst
<jim> see you all.
<davep> sherri, dud you locate weiss book?
<gary fullett> buy buy buy
<sherri> I think so ...gary is checking
<gary fullett> i will get it in the morning
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