User [gary fullett /171.217.73.73] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:04:07 EST 2000 hi everyone Is the NWS channel? I'm in Tampa. about 85 here too. hey Gary good evening grant co. ky just north of lexington yike 38 here hi, Gary. Welcome guest great day tho gary hey gary yes User [fibo /204.119.225.57] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:05:17 EST 2000 you in chi town gary? if any one didnt know tomorrow is the quartly grain report hi, Fibo hello everyone yes sherri hi fibo hi fibo User [eric /206.98.11.159] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:05:43 EST 2000 so please be aware of this it is at 730 am central tim just south of you gary wild day in the nasdaq huh? where sherri yep watseka hi everyone where sherri? Illinois ever hea of sycamore? yes my hometown i heard of watseka where is that at relative to chicago Yorkville is mine yes sal I have jimbo I am 20 miles now from yorkville 100 miles south on rt 1 Amos, were you born in Israel? I am actaullly in Romeoville 32 miles Southwest of chicago I can actually see soybeans well we grow them Israel was born after amos:) LOL does anyone have any questions That makes Amos, how old??? I never saw a bean plant till I met kelly 3 yrs ago i traded em but never saw them I am city boy Im serious are there any questions on markets or on wyckoff ? I wanted to ( actaullt amos) some quick ones. to go over the discussion last night to continue it but questions first In July Bean oil, can you say the footprint of the CM is on 3-2 and 2-14 please not where the grains closed today and watch the close tomorrow and then becomes evident to the world on 3-3 and 3-14 it is the daily weekly monthly quarterly chart!!! daily july very good peggy I am trying to be a better Tracker tomorrow is an important day the day before april fools? oh does anyone trade the stock indexes? s&p occasionally questiony they close tomorrow 10 minutes early for setlement opps, cancel so please if u trade them they close at 305 central time okay? k they will do that every quarter i think did they do this last septemner? I know dec 31 they did this for the nre tr new yr i don't think so gary okay I didnt think so that is why I mentioend it I knew dec 31 was a special closing okay amos if you would like to begin we are all ears User [Guest] left forum at Thu Mar 30 21:14:06 EST 2000 good corn joke, gary, all ears lol bold I hope some of you had a chance to read the post and get the SMI chart? y y y y y y User [mike /152.172.105.239] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:15:50 EST 2000 y hi mike hi hey, mike There is a guy on KR forum who knows HTML pretty good. I am learning from him how to incorporate this in posts etc. So I am trying it on ltg. looks good amos User [gary fullett /171.216.164.176] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:17:00 EST 2000 it came out good amos Hopefully we will be able to use tru e charts in our discussions and that will make learning to understand market behavior--more explicit. yes the bean chart went well At any rate--since you are so industrious--we can go straight to it. If you all look at the chart of the 4 phases of the market--I would like to talk about the first 5 or 6 starx. Star number 1 marked from left to right is the Preliminary support. Where does PS come from? it is after a letter u write PS demmand Post script demand CM Well, it is the first recognition that the CM thinks that prices have reached it comes from the downtrend about to end and it is the first time u see demand from the CM some level that merits taking in some of his shorts. User [gary fullett] left forum at Thu Mar 30 21:20:32 EST 2000 I will try to (ignore jokes) and talk about this chart--solely from the point of view of the CM. User [gary fullett /171.216.164.176] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:21:01 EST 2000 This may not be the best way to really explain things (many times just talking about supply and demand--makes more sense) But I simply would like to go one time thru the "eyes" of the CM. At least the way Wyckoff explained it. Is this ok with everybodY? y y y y y y he he as if you have a choice.... Ok. as the market goes down and a price level that justified the prefious short hedging i.e. the previous distribution that the CM KNEW would result in lower prices... as the price level is nearing-- the CM who at times has hard time covering all his shorts in one fell swoop (I just love that expression) decides on day (week) to cover some of his shorts. Smart onlookers, floor traders, who may be watching certain brokers on the floor and , of course, members of this class see this. They decide to cover too. Why? Because the market has gone sharply down and everyone is looking for a turn. What is very important is--that the point where PS first occurs--becomes an important road mark thruout the process of accumulation that occurs along with stars 2-8. Normally point 1 is a sharp rally, associated with a clear reversal, wide range and high volume. You asked how old I am. Well, old enough to have bought so many PSs and being decimated in the coming PS--to last a few lives. The problem with the PS is that you know you have seen an important action by the CM. You know that you are close to a bottom. But you DO NOT know how deep will be the SC below the PS. So, let me tell you right here and there---it is not very smart to go long the PS-UNLESS you understand that it is ONLY a PS> User [SteveF /216.76.155.164] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:29:40 EST 2000 IF you are ready mentally for the coming SC-- you will be there ready to get in at a point that will , most probably NOT catch your stop. The best way (I have found) to cope with the PS is to call it by its name. "A name by any other name is but a rose." remember this. By calling the Preliminary Support--by its name-- you are psychologically preparing yourself for the SC. The joke: I bought the first break, I bought the second break...I WAS the third break: is not a joke. It is one of the hardest corners of market's behavior. User [SteveF] left forum at Thu Mar 30 21:32:06 EST 2000 Why am I harping on this? User [SteveF /216.76.155.164] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:32:14 EST 2000 Anybody? this is the same as preliminary demand on gary's chart , right? ye] yes it is because the market is about to change change it is an alert a red flag but a dangerous one to react too soon to how dangerous Jimbo? unless u have deep pockets unknown and that's the danger one never knows You are all right and you all skirt around the crux of the matter. User [Lavona /207.50.1.131] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:34:42 EST 2000 The crux of it is--that if you enter the market too soon- you are more than likely to MISS the next upmove. hi Lavona WHY? Hello everyone hi L because you ego is hurt, your conficence is hurt. User [gary fullett] left forum at Thu Mar 30 21:35:17 EST 2000 What does it mean that timing is so important? It has to do with our psyche. User [gary fullett /171.216.164.176] joined forum at Thu Mar 30 21:35:37 EST 2000 It is part of trading that very few books really discuss. hi lavona Jesse Livermore is the best about talking about these issues. At any rate- using the Wyckoff nomenclature is good because it instills some kind of emotional regimentation on you. If you think SC--then you are afraid the market has ALREADY bottomed. If you think PS, then you give the market another chance to make a new low--without shaking your analysis about the whole precess fo accumulation. Avoiding the whipsaw--is very important for long term success in this business. Now comes a more important point. chainsaw Why cannot the rally following the PS go very far? ? answer please cm isn't ready to mark it up yet the CM is reverseing his position it would be against the established trend no cause have no idea there has to be cause you see? a trading range fuel for the market the language is important. I have harped on this many times the cm must acculate a postions and this takes time If you use the term Cause (which is mandated by Wyckoff) then it immediately leads you to be more cautions. the market just doesnt move up or down randomly it needs a cause If you say--the market needs to obey the law of cause and effect--the larger the cause--the larger will be the next price move--or the effect-- then you are ready to scalp the PS and stand aside WITHOUT being afraid that you will miss the whole thing. Why do we buy too early? afraid we will miss the move Becuase we are afraid to "MISS" the next move. Nothing can be sillier than this. we are greedy Because without a cause 9 out of 10 times the market will go nowhere. WHY? cm has no ammo yes, there has not been risk transfer. User [mike] left forum at Thu Mar 30 21:42:51 EST 2000 risk transfer is a process--it is a manipulative process that requires time. building cause.......more people come in @ this time also please remember at the end of a move the sc V tops and V bottoms occur at those unique times when the CM was able to take all his position on the way down or up. selling climax what is the news? That is very rare. It is a panic of major proportion. it is negative It is not represented in the chart in front of you and we are not talking about it here. so the cm can accumaulte on 'negative news " like crude last yr It is important to undersatnd--that in a V bottom or top--WYckof is usually useless. but he needs somehwt "positive news" to mark up and this takes time Crude, sal had a double bottom on the 15 year chart, at lease--but you are right that there yeah Sal :) was practically no accumulation and the monthly chart definitely looks like a V bottom. i was referring to negative news at bottom you look at the volume and price action at the V bottoms If you read the newpapers and other sources of wisdom--you will se e that very few predicted such a strong rally. That is one reason why the market went so high. I did :) I have the archives to prove it I said 35 bucks a barrel too At any rate, we recognize that star number one is PS. PS can take many shapes and forms. The chematic chart only points to an important road mark. But what is very common is that this particular level at which the CM chose to cover part of his shorts--is a level of economic significance. How do I know this? simply becuase as you go thru accumulationh--you will see that smart traders buy that level each time the market comes back to it. If you draw a horizontal line from the low of the PS and a horizontal lilne from the high of the rally following the PS you will many times get a good chunk of the trading range in which accumulation will take place. Folks--this was a secret--what I just said (secret no more) i like it I am saying that you can know way ahead of time what the boundaries of the next large trading range that may take weeks, months, years--- right then and there--way before the public. hmmm All you have to do is draw those horizontal lines and extend them across future price charts, or remember them--and you have a very goo d graspt on the future action of the market. In other parlance this will become wave 4 on the way down, or the neck of the head and shoulder bottom, or whatever. through all time frames, Amos? The importance of star # 1 cannot be overemphasized. you mean the range between ps and sc? yes star #1 and #3 The schematic from SMI (I think intentionally) describe starts 1 and 2 very close to each other. NOT Necessarily. The nature of the rally of the PS tells a lot about the real balance of supply and demand. If the rally of the PS is wild--that means that a big battle isgoing to take place, it can be furious and with sharp moves--but you stand aside and you recognize that when this battle is finally over--the next move will be great. In order to really understand the nature and the possible manifestations of the PS we need to lo0ok at various charts and study specific situations. We do not have this facility here=--so we wait with this. amos can you describe the volume on the PS? What I would like for you to do--is take this information--go look at previous charts and start thinking PS. Try to hide the rest of the chart and think what would have gone in your stomach at that point. by the way the PS is in a downtrending market Your mind is not important--it is your stomach which counts there. it is the first time the market shows demnad Gary's point is very good. The trend is still down--but you know that some budd is brewing. the FEAR sets in that there is NO bottom it is at this point the bottom appears techincially the market remains down for some time but when u see the selling climax to a wyckoff student the downtrend is over Another unknown variable that is not represented on the chart is time. it can be fast and it can take many days. There is no solution to this. Of course , if you have a point and figure count from the disribtution phase and it has been consumed--then theree please note everyone: that the PS happens on a daily chart weekly chart as well as a monthly chart different times frames is no more cause for the market to go down more. But there is no cause to go up. That is true--that this process takes place on all time frames. If you look at 5 minute bar charts--you will see this sequence going on all the time. It is the natural sequence of how supply and demand battle and manifest themselves in the market. but again the smaller the ime frame the smaller the move: User [Jimbo] left forum at Thu Mar 30 22:01:39 EST 2000 5 minute chart cant give you more than a scalp So star number 2 is important resistance for some time to come. At that point the CM is going short. Why? because of people like us. monthly chart gives u the whole enchaliadas it is the retest of resistance We are not strong holders (NOt deep pockets as Gary calls it) and we operate on hope, not on knowledge. cm wants to accumulate all he can at a lower price So we have a stop somewhere below the low of the PS. cm knows SC is going to occur We also think that we bought LOW--what do we do then? We , of course, load the boat. At that point , even a small move against us becomes a huge loss. The CM knows that we are easy prey--and he very well said lmarsh is a ferrocious animal. The CM MAKES the SC. PS, SC, all these things do not HAPPEN, they are being manufactured! OK. Now comes star 3 if we are lucky and we waited for this twinkle little star--that means that our stomach is not in pain of the last stoploss--then we are somwhat stronger traders. We can buy with a stop below the SC. The chances for a terminal shakeout-- are much much smaller thatn the PS stop being taken out. From a business point of view--you are amuch better business person if you buy after the SC. Please not-- Rothchild said that he never buys before star number 8!!!!! note. It is Reminiscences. Star 3 is somewhat easy to recognize. That presents a problem for the CM WHY? ? cm's a gready sob haed to hide an elephant hard no one to build a cause on show footprint of the CM to many people getting in there very good, I like the elephant thingy (Maybe Davied Copperfield is a CM?) So, what should he do? wear you out stage a big,fast rally? so he needs to tire them or spring them out all good answers. I do not have an answer. But when you start thinking this way--- you are starting to think LIKE the CM and right then and ther--you remove yourself quite a ways from the 95% losers in our business. It is the correct thing that Sorros was talking about. How come nobody asks me to further explain this Soros thing? did you read the post? i got it y y y y y n well-this is my way of communicating with you people.I do not care to put it on the post--because the post is oopen to the public--and even tho this class is FREE--you are still making the effort to come here--and youshould be rewarded. I do not believe in pure charity. thanks so you should ask questions if yousee something on the post--it is aimed at YOU.