User [gary fullett /171.216.138.2] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:03:42 EST 2000 hi eric hi gary good evening everyone hi gary hi mrj gary and everyone hi. hey Gary User [amos /62.0.147.222] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:04:23 EST 2000 cold here I am trying to get my hands working User [Jimbo /63.11.38.148] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:04:37 EST 2000 hi amos and jimbo did everyone recive charts? hi y y y Hey everybody User [Peggy /206.173.161.39] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:05:20 EST 2000 y evening, all hi peggy no charts? just got, printing now User [Peggy] left forum at Tue Mar 28 21:05:53 EST 2000 okay first are there any questions? comments? or words of wisdom User [fibo /204.119.225.197] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:06:31 EST 2000 hi fibo hello everyone Yes, why is it so difficult for you to draw HORIZONTAL lines? :) it is not why? each line has some tilt to it. like you want to connect it to the future instead of blindly listening to the past too much fiber in your bagel? which chart? :)lol sal each chart I draw m lines from previos points from the past yes, but you are biased to the future gary was just connecting the highs and the lows. not all charts have a defined horizontal support and resisatnce to me I trade futures not past ures :) I know, you have a bias agains horizontal positions so I must be biased to the future only when I feel that they are important amos since the charts are there and you woudl like to disuss horizontal lines please begin.... User [mike /171.219.249.99] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:10:58 EST 2000 and point out where you feel the horizontal lines should be User [Peggy /206.173.161.39] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:11:07 EST 2000 hi mike no charts wb peggy hello hi Peggy hi, Fibo hi mike hi peggy did u go to the archives Peggy? hello, all yes, the 3-27-00 says no URL found take june gold for example.... k I think that we can work a little on charts 8 and 9 ==wheat should that have been a horizontal line? yes jim I drew it pooly on that one k what about ad? it should connect from Nov 98 striaght across I did that by hand and I was off sorry jim has apoint the Australian dllar is sloped on purpose I was showing the trenline there and it the top of the range you shuld have also drawn a horizontalo line at the gap and at the last creek going down at 6000? User [Peggy] left forum at Tue Mar 28 21:14:36 EST 2000 amos are you referring the australian dolloar? , no gold day late and a dollar short The reason I am making a point ofthis is because it is important. at the 280 area Drawing horizontal lines is nothing more than graphical representation of previous points of supportand resistance. Drawing diagonal lines is a wishful thinking that the second the horizotal line should be across the 280 area point that you are connecting with is "hopefully" a low or high. This is wishful thinking and it is usually very costly in this business. I find that if you draw connect to signicant points with a tendline this is very profitable User [Peggy /206.173.161.39] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:18:12 EST 2000 User [SteveF /216.78.78.131] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:18:20 EST 2000 2 points give you a third you will have to prove this to me hi steve hi Steve Amos, you don't believe in channels? Hey but the horizontal line should have been drawn better I apologize I can and I will Hey , you learn most from your students may corn I am your student remeber :) it gave u a 20 cent move 220 area to 240 but anyway lets begin and fight the markets amos would you like to begin with gold and wheat analysis I think that charts 8 and 9 are fine to start with.chart 8 please what is 8? i couldn't get charts today Weekly wheat, fibo o.k. thanks.. Who was it that metnioned all the points of support of wheat last nite>? was it jim or dave? i mentioned kansas city not me Kansas city? ok, back to chicago we have the chart. look at it for a minute. Gaze at it. Forget trading and making money and tell me what do you see? an important question.... wkly w.... should those be horizontal lines? lower highs lower lows ALas, yes. Imagin . if it is a trading range.... highs and lows dont mean anything.... remember. yes mrj, but you can definitely devide this space into two different modes of behaviors: one until Sept 98 and another one since then, not right? It is not a trading range, but a much slowly sloping downtrend. y Every low is not starting a new sharp decline, just goes, catches stops and rallies a litte Remeber what we said, or Gary said, OR Wyckoff said that the process of accumulation can take several forms. It can be a slow process where the CM is shaking out early longs by sitting there and TIRING everyonoe out. It can be one fell swoop where the CM User [Jeff /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:28:02 EST 2000 welcome jeff is SCARING everyone ("CRASH of 87") hi jeff Or any variation in between. hello all Now if we had a monthly chart going back to 1969 you would know that Wheat is coming from the 1 dollar area. . But let us deal with the data in front of us. We see that since 9/98 we almost 2 years of somewhat sidewas trading. I intentionally say sidways and a trading range because the words have a tendency to bias us. The language is IMPORTNT for later peace of mind. Everyone in the whole wide world is seeing this picture and without exception all are salivating!! we all imagin the next mega move of 3 dollars where we will make $15,000 on every call we buy for chaep dirt .This can explain to you why Richard Dennis said he lost more millions trying to go long Sugar at 5 cnets. Every one is buying calls and they expire worthless. Instead--you have the smart people who wait until the market starts a trend in earnts. They are not tempted by low prices. Let me tell you something. One of the costliest methods of trading (Gary is going to HATAE me for this) is: BLASH. If you Blash--you will not make money. It is Buy Low and Sell High. Jesse Livermore said dont. Rothchild said Dont. Steinhardt said Dont. But the rest of the world and you supermarket and you white sales say DO DO DO DO Do. WEll, whe you do it twice you get dodo. I do not want to pu t too many o's there. Here we are in front of a very nice opportunity to make money in the next rally in Wheat. But if you get stopped out amos I have a question? too many times, before the real move starts--you will NOT participate in teh big move. Your stomach, your ego, your emotional pocket will not allow you to do it. Now back to technical analysis. Any question so far? yes if we have a Selling cliamx and the market then has an AR automatic rally and a retest should the retest of support on the retest be bought? even though technically the market is still down is this a wheat question or a hypothetical question? a wyckoff question the answer is yes, but it has nothing to do with the case in front of us--namely , wheat No other question? Those who are absent, please raise your hands the reason why I ask is that you say dont buy low that you lose money this way I want class to think like the cm does User [SteveF /216.78.78.131] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:39:47 EST 2000 and wyckoff would buy this area ould one enter the wheat market? an upthrust? you should always buy THE low and sell THE high--only that you never know where they are. if you wait for the grains to turn up the market needs to go up much more from here to be bullish you mentioned that you bought gold and were stopped out gold is definetly in a down trend : ) Gary, I am trying to explain a theory and a correct way to observe markets. How people want to trade and make their fortunes is up to them. we should wait for more confirmation in gold then right so when would be the right time to enter a market that is turning from bearish to bullish> Please Gary, I am trying to dissect the wheat chart. Let me go thru it in full. We all have a tendency to jump what about go long on breakout of 300 and go long again at restest of 300? okay my apology continue sir Please, forget trading right now. We are looking at a chart and we are trying to understand what we see and see if we can detect the intentions of the cm . k So when we look at this chart (and I am not sure it is a correct continuation chart, at that!) mine is assume it is. We see that the composite man knows fully well that the whole world wants to go long. He chose, so far to conduct the process of accumulation by the nethod of tiring everyone out. He is doing the slow shaking. Like you take a bunch of grapes and you shake it. The weak grapes fall off first i did and the ones that cling to the small stem, are holding--and they need to be dropped too. User [sherri /207.112.162.144] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:45:14 EST 2000 hi sherri We all have this stupid tendency to be afraid:"WHat if I lose the trade? I must enter now or I lose the move." hi everyone...sorry I'm late Stop for a second and ask you self: "WHat are you really saying?" we are on weekly wheat sit in the corner for 5 mintues sherri thx ok I will tell you what are you saying. If you are afraid at 250 or 260 nearby wheat that you are going to "lose" the whole move--you are saying that you DO NOT BELIEVE there will be a big move. If we are going to 4-5 dollars--whe cares about the first 20-30 cents? User [Guest Jack /209.191.60.235] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:47:24 EST 2000 But we tend to think that we must catch the bottom. That has some merit hi Jack Well, in this case catching the bottom had been a very costly operation. I know personally people in Israel that already dropped several hundered thousand dollars being long 30-50 wehat . What does Wyckoff say? If we look at the volume behavior we see that the first low in 3.99 was on very high volume. User [Jeff /24.17.169.192] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:49:08 EST 2000 That means that supply existed below the 250 area. That is already a red light. It is a very cut and dry rule according to Wyckoff. You do not want to see large supply on secondary test. The only time that large volume can be bullish on secondary test is if it is another climax. Is this clear to everybody? y y y y y y y So the weekly chart in March 99 already gave a warning sign!!! Not the the market is going lower, but that it will have to absorb the wupply that still existed arond the 250. A year later --and it turned out to be a good warning. Now the rallies since that low were on respectable volume. Positive sign. The reaction to lower low was on lighter volume in 1/2000. Another positive sign. User [gary fullett] left forum at Tue Mar 28 21:52:42 EST 2000 User [vik /204.50.130.109] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:52:45 EST 2000 I am trying to point out that it is a convergence of signs that tilt the pircture. IF you see more and more indications that User [gary /171.216.138.2] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 21:53:10 EST 2000 hi vik your analysis is correct--you have a better chance of getting on and STAYING with the next trend. hi hi vik I am sorry I cannot decipher the last few weeks. I see large volume--bu I am not sure if it comes on hi gary the downside or the upside. I need to zoom, i sec please, looks like the high volume of about 6 weeks ago was on the downside. no charts this week? The market is not ready. From a pure volume point of view-- i do not get a very bullish indication. Now. If the volume does not give you a very clear indication--what do you do? Any volunteers? yes there were charts vik wait sit wait stay out when in doubt stay out stand aside wait & watch you are all so smart. but wait for what? sing of stength volume on strength spring indication of lack of supply? selling climax sc Jadies and Lentlmen! wait for a clear signal of demand entering the market this is all fine and dandy but look at the weekly chart! where would sos or climax be? at the last low in dec hasn't happened watch volume well the truth is that nobody knows what exactly to do here. If you are patient enough and say to yourself, I only buy this market above 300 when it comes to clear support then it is either the last low around 248 or the last dec low as fibo said. Otherwise--you watch. If you decide to wait for a sign of strength then you wait to buy around the 300. If you decide to wait for a jump and back then you have to sit idely when the market goes to 3-3.50 and then pulls backe to say. 3,25. etc. It is simply not easy. It looks very inviting, but the cm is smarter than us. Other people will use Gann, cyckles, stochastics, 1-2-3- you name it. or at least more patient I just want to point out that we are in clever accumulation process. When we finally come out of this area there will be a prolong mark up. To tell you that I know exactly what to do here--will be a lie because I do not have monthly, quarterly, point and figure amos, question looks like they slammed it to the mat week of dec. 3rd then dec. 17th low was made on no vol. and it rallied User [jim /171.210.129.182] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 22:03:16 EST 2000 charts to give me more information. But you mark this chart. If you follow it slowly you should make some money in it in the next 2 years yes sal are you saying for long position use weekly , but for Gary he could use daily for shorter positions within the longer? amos...do you ever watch open interest in wyckoff? sal, I am trying to say that the weekly chart here gives me an indication what the cm is doing. I know that he is in no hurry and i know that when he finally decides to mark up--he will be aggressive. k You are right about Gary watchin the dailies-=-you have to be a trader here and not a position trader. Sherri--open interest is not part of Wyckoff. My expereince is that open interest never made me money. he can afford to be --since building cause for 18 mos ok what is your deifinition of position longer than what time frame? I know that Ken Shaleen claims it does--but My experience is negative. It is very important in commodities , as I hav said before in the expiring moth--because it tells User [Guest Jack] left forum at Tue Mar 28 22:06:59 EST 2000 you that the losing side is being squeezed. If you now move to chart 9 you see that the double bottom on the chart is suspect in view of the large picture we saw on teh weekly. what is chart 9? There is definitely another point around the 2.30 or so ( I cannot see the numbers) Sorry, fibo,daily may wheat thanks Now-it is crucial to understand that regardless of the large analysis--if you are a quick trader--you should buy support and resistance. But the trade should be more of a scalp, and if you go in and you have a profit--you should immediately rais your stop to scratch--you should NOT lose money of such a trade (unless you get stopped out immediately). Does everyone understand "scratch?" y y break even yep, my dog told me good. y including commission :-) no commissions are the cost of doing business, scratch is a market behavior. a scratch trade is a trade that breaks even so if you buy beans at 520 you get stopped out at 520 But if you can scratch with commission then may your fleas be mine there is no profit or loss :) i like -break even plus a big mac i like car fare home :-) Now, let me tell you that a chart like wheat does not happen very often. Also, it is much easier to talk lilke I talk now.I would have sounded much more bullish earlier on teh chart. We are all much smarter in hindsight. But the great thing about WYckoff is that when you go back User [lmarsh /12.14.197.202] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 22:14:14 EST 2000 and look at such charts--they eventually give you so much insight into what has already happened and what the cm is really intending to do--that if you continue faithfully and keep watching that M?F you will be rewarded. WHy? because his campaign is elaborate. The cm would not spend so much time spanking all the bulss bulls and shaking them out if he did not intend for prices to go much higher. This is where WYckoff's second law of cause and effect comes to fruition. Ok.I am done. Gary great analysis..... Good lesson amos thanks amos thanx yes, dogs, scratching, spanking--no doubt good stuff lol thanx beforre I begin fleas are there any questions for amos Oh, one more word please. go ahead sir amos, are their some markets where If you do not follow from now on this weekly wheat chart every day and see how it develops--i will hate you. the cm 's influence has been diluted, ex SP deal okkkkkkkkkk hate is not a good word OK, I wont love you since amos went over this chart I want to go over soemthing that i find interesting if we're looking for $3, shouldn't we look at jluy or further out? and that I have pointed out to you previously he said next two years daveap you can buy July then roll to the next month thx sherri remeber when I mentioned strenghth and weaknesses within a commodity group User [fibo /204.119.225.117] joined forum at Tue Mar 28 22:21:37 EST 2000 y well you see this in soybeans wb fibo