User [gary fullett /171.222.77.62] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 20:55:59 EST 2000 hello peggy hi gary. I was just cleaning up the logs for myself User [Frank /207.230.57.25] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 20:59:27 EST 2000 had a question today on options. hi frank hi frank in purchasing options can I purchase a call and a call, or a put and a put, okay peggy I don't just have to make to a call and a put do I hi peggy, gary yes you can buy differnet calls you can buy a call at differnet strike prices differnet sounds so electronic do you have an example in mind? I was looking at Dec live cattle on some of the sites\ mentioned last night. That Bohl was great Amos helped greatly the last few days encouraging us bohl has a good site to look at long term charts. Seemed to me Dec live cattle is in a trading range, what do you mean peggy? until I looked at the continuous chart in which oh long term charts are important it has broken resistance the reason i dont go over them alot User [lmarsh /12.14.197.197] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:02:32 EST 2000 is becausue you need a decent size account User [chris /63.14.212.152] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:02:33 EST 2000 to trade longer term User [amos /62.0.146.96] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:02:39 EST 2000 I was not going to trade Dec live cattle, just hello hello chris and amos thought I would Amos' advice to look them over. It was cttle is a good market good to see what and where they were amos has good sound advice... Pax Vobiscum Hello Amos, lmarsh hello everyone latin, but what does it mean Shulem Aleichem look at monthly weeklies and dailes You are a very intelligent and learned fellow, Amos!!! what's that mean?? peace to you as well my brother it means Peact to you " Frank Pax=Peace; The rest= with you Peace I am in a Papal mood, tired and frail amos just had dinner with the pope I learned something new today. what is that peggy? Wasn't Friday, so what did you have for dinner with him??? :) sal is ill today so we need to have a good class in her honor the latin, gary. I learned something new. okay.. good it is good to learn okay any questions? This is why we are here for--to teach Latin I knew that!! amos how is your latin? not good okay are there any questions got the little spread book Kelly sent. There are a bazillion types of spreads saw gold had a good day,... ys peggy Can I buy a Q please? I am putting the spreads on the site within 2 weeks yes peggy you have 3 lifelines User [eric /206.98.11.161] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:08:39 EST 2000 I have a 380 June gold call. welcome eric How do I roll it over and what does it cost? okay you roll it over by selling the call you own and buying good evening all a furhter call or is it worth it like an October hey eric it will cost as a new trade another commission that's reasonable so you buy the strike price you want call your broker and place the trade so am I actually liquidating my June call I am sure he can help you with strike prices ad cost User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:10:22 EST 2000 yes sell the june before the 30 day window and buy a furhter out call if you are still bullish gold hi davep hi Gary . . .& everyone hi, dave and eric Hi Peggy roll over means that you liquidate your present position and buy another month further out so you dont get delievered on or have to make delievery or the contract expires okay peggy? k any other questions? I hope that helps. I want to talk about the importantance of market support and resiatnce and retests of markets tomorrow I will be going over weeklies and some monthlies we will be watching the grains metals bonds crb closely over the next few months by the way before I forget the dow is 800 points from an alltime high but the s and P went to contract high today User [fibo /204.119.225.199] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:14:29 EST 2000 that's good , but boy ain't it crazy? hello everyone hi fibo I want to talk grains first since fibo just came in hi fibo yes lamrsh since fibo helps us with grains i think it is good to start there lets take the daily may beans amos mentioned the weekly and monthly on grains over the past week User [sherri /207.112.162.168] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:16:04 EST 2000 hi sherri I want to chat on the daily welcome sherri hi folks hi Sherri, Fibo over the last month we have been talking about beans we mentioend that 506 was support and ressiatnce was 515 reemeber? y y then the market broke above 516 y nd staled at 520 area so 515 was support once the market went above 523 area this became support with me so far y y this should all be review but what did fibo and amos ( and I say) when the market was at about the 506-510 area on that break that day buy! it was said that demand was evident and that if it is demand the market should work higher and by watching market behavior we were rewrded so as aos has said we talk the market look at its pieces and make a decsion with a stop loss if we lose money even though it is the right trade it should be bought okay so far y y y great y y what was the high last week in Jan or so? 538 y 538.50 correct so we know if we are long at 538 we should liquidate some longs at ressiatnce right? correct y or should we sit thru the expected correction? no, take profit,,.. I have a question last friday the market went to the high of the move right? y and closed near the high both on the weekly and the daily right ? y y yes y both of those charts look good last friday right why get out at all? I'm basically a coward, for starters any aswers? spead between bean meal and bean oil gives a warning would the resistance on both daily & weekly have been good reason, to have close stop/ exit trade yes it did eric that is why i watch spreads i took profits and waited for the pull the reasn is becasue 538 beans is RESISTANCE you must think like a professional trader what do a professional trader do he BUYS SUPPORT SELLS RESISTANCE and sometimes buy strenghth and sells weakness User [amos /62.0.146.96] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:27:35 EST 2000 even thought the market looks strong sell resistance you can ALWAYS get back in this commodity trading is a game of risk to reward if the risk is greatre than the reward you NEED to get out...... and wait Capitail preservation risk to reward trades are key to sucess what is the reward of the beans at 538? yu need to look at th weekly on that but we know what the risk is dont we? it is back to the support at what level is that? 524 523 right 506 area 506 or also 506? so one could have sold at 538 resistance correction 520 and bought at 523 14 censt or 700 differnece 523 what was the low today? can u see me? 522 ans 1/2 522 1/2 was the low right to support the point I am trying to make is that if you sell resistance or a reteset of resistance it is a good strategy to follow you can always buy back at support froze for a moment and if the market rallies above reiestace you can buy and place as top under supprt stop s buying retest of support is important selling retests of ressiatnce is just as good youi can always reeneter the market questions? do you all see the points I mentioned? User [jim /152.202.27.21] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 21:34:19 EST 2000 y yes y hi, all. hi jim jim hello Jim hi hi jim y -- hi Jim questions? y hi jim does everyne undersatnd? Can I buy a Q, please yes maam would you just have anticipated that a retest would be at 538 they are free tonight yes of course cuz, if i waited til yesterday it was too late we mentioned that point last wee before it went to 538 on Friday have your oder placed in adavence if you cant watch it and today sgould have been bought at 523 area? with a stop where? above yesterdayL lt me ask the question where if anyone bought today should be the stop? 516 520 the ideal stop would be under last weeks low below the 520 hi under that trendline under 508 but that is alot right so the next place is under 515 area y if you didnt want to risk to 508 so eric is closer lmarsh stop isnt bad either short term though if you bought at 523 an risked to 520 ht is only 150 dollars pretty good if you an get away with it understand, do u see the trendline I drew>? y Gary, I do not remember you saying last nite to buy beans at 523 I didnt say that but we talked about resiantance on the move up So Why assume that any one bought there? at 515-516 area OK, then we are still waiting to buy at 516 then we talked about the 520 -523 being resistance then we talked about 538 reisisatnce right so the first support Gary, I think we are smart enough and we know markets well enough not from the reaction from 538 is the 523 level to deal with would coulca shoulda that all died when did not was born reistsnace when breached now becomes support I am talking support and resisatnce everyones comfort zone is differnet a large account can buy the first support if bullish since 523 was resiatnce o the move up it is support now correct? y yes you should ahve a buy as well at 515 area and stop under the trend line if the risk at 523 area is too much one musr waut for better prices if prices dont come lower then buy strenghth with a smaller risk I want to say something that I feel important look when the market went to 538 in late Jan see this? y k y y where did the market break to after this high? 504 right 507 does everyone see this>? y y 504 correct I think 507 is closer 504 in may nope 504 i so how many cents is that break? 34 right? fibo!! y 538-504 right? see this? yes it was then where did the rally go to? 530 right? 529 later feb okay 529 better yet where did the next break take you down too? 500.50 okay thank u 529 - 500 lets say is how amny cents? many 29 right? 29 y great so this break wasnt as sever right $1450 severe so the market seems when it breaks not to break as hard this to me means that demand is enetering the market note for 8 weeks... inc price accompnaied by inc vol... drop in price accomp by dec vol..... so one would expect that the break from the last 538 would be less than 29 cents less than 29 is 28 by watching market action on the other hand, they were lower lows and lower highs..... if the breaks arent a deep that means to me demand is buying on these pullbacks yes Jim but we did go above 530 so it appears that the market has develpoed NO, NO, one minute, let me correct jim, please a trading range from 538 to the 506 area please do amos how significant is the resistance at 538? This discussion is wonderful. It harbors one of Wyckoff's secrets that I shall elaborate it is the retest of daily ressiatnce laster--it is the subject of the shortening of the upward/downward thrust but what jim just said is a misnomer!!!!! When you are in a coorective phase within a large range--when you are IN THE MIDDLE can you elaborate a bit here amos of a TRADING RANGE l ike we are now in the beanse in a range between 460 and 538 --the rally from dec/99 and jan/2000 then lower lows and highs do non mean anything. You are in teh middle of a rrange. Your LOK is 0 and the move can be totally random. thanks. It is very crucial to relate to lower lows, igher highs higher highs, but you must define you space first. I shall repeat. If you know that hyou are in a large range--then the small rallies and reactions can have a randomness to them. This is why the large chart has to direct you. Unfortunately, according to Wyckoff-- you always have to define and redifine you spaces. Your market definitions. So using the same terminology in the wrong space (or room as I used to call it) can mislead you. I hope I am celar. clea rclear offffff clear y This is terrible when you cannot even type the word clear :) yes y lol you type like me Please continue Gary, But I would like to elaborate further on the concept you started thank you amos shortening of the thrust I ahvent gone over in detail in class I think one of the most important things to remeber is to try to identify an upward trend or downward trned is it accumaltion or distribution I believe that the grains are longer term up so I am using the pullbacks to support to buy y it appears when the market breaks it is well support ed.. so I will buy at the first stop with an approapite stop if I am wrong and stopped out I will buy the next support if the market action warrnats it your first los is you best loss so if you do the proper trade with a stop and it loses money that okay if you do the right trade and lose money that is okay becasue the more you do proper trades in the long you will be sucessful have we established that the daily, weekly, and monthly trends have all turned up? the dailies have turned up I will let aos address the weekly and monthlies amos amos can you address the weekly and monthly for a moment? we do have higher highs and higher lows..... The address is P.O.Box 49805 :) lol lol is that where the checks go lol :) The monthly beans has on the individual montlly chart (which I hate) one high at 5.40 that we have to penetrate. The weekly is showing higher highs but without ooomph so the picture is still somewhat murky. I would say that April will be the truth teller. thanks. amos which weekly do you like better ..the weekly continuation? or the individual weekly Fibo there is only one correct chart and that is the continuation chart. glad you said that :-) Now how you concatenate succesive months is a little tricky. There are two general ways--the expiration method and the first notice method what does that word mean, Amos?\ you have to look at both , in my opinion concatenate tie toegether k we use expiration method i suggeest you always compare the expiration with the first notice--there are times that the truth hides in one of the other. This is why chart reading is so trickty--while most people think that it is looking at starnge lines. It is a very clever scienjce/art to read charts correctly but I can assure you that the CM is communicating thru them we keep cash weeklys also cash with high and low? yes That is FANTASTIC!!!! and we put the volume on the cash charts too..makes a better picture fibo, what are you8 doing here? you should be in Luzan? just trying to learn more amos amos, do you know if Genesis data service does continuous charts correctly? cash with volume is wonderful.. I am not familiar with them, However Exodus and Numbers-- they are something lol lol I like Leviticus, myself Not Deuteronomy? Peggy that is almost latin :) levitus is a cousin of amos :) you are better, thou tho Just older yikes a little humor I like that it is election night in Chicago so there is lots of humor here is Oprah running for anything??? everyone votes 3 times today However, jim I would like you very much to contact them and find out how they do their continuation charts yes to Mcdonalds i will do that. she has gained lots of weight lol@gary :) We never got to this--but the issue of how you construct your long term charts so we exhausted daily beans any questions there? is very important. Most people do not pay any attention to this one question.. please Jim buy supports and buy upthrusts.... which one? arer you Steinhartdt or Paul Tudor Jones? know neither. Too bad. is there an answer? One is a 1% breakout above established ranges guy the other is bottoom and top picker. Both are worth several billions prefer to buy support thanks. which is whom please amos for class so everyone knows Do you really bvelieve that a system can make you money? I always say that a system cannot make you money. Take 2 F-16 and put two pilots in them. One is Tom Cruise from "Top Gun". Tom will win amos can you mention to class hich man buys support and whichone buys new highs or sells new lows Gary likes to buy support. I use to do it for a long time and then I realized that I recognize support and resistance way to early and it cost me too much money. So I switched to waiting for a confirmation signal. I mention here the thrust method all the time. It gives my SOUL some solace. You must understand that as Ed Seykotta said: YOu must choose the system that your soul can live with. amos I have a question Tudor jones was more a support and resistance guy. BLT . that is correct about tudor jones why did you not identify resistance and support on larger time scale at that time? But steinhardt is happier and fatter if you get a confirmation signal will you buy support after confirmation Because I am a schmuck because I have not met you at the time, jim. These are good questions. thanks The point I am trying to make is that once you understand how the plane opearate and you learn to fly--you choose, you gravitate to the style that is User [chris /63.14.212.152] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 22:26:58 EST 2000 more comfortable for you. hi chris thanks. All we can do here is teach you to fly an F-16 or F-22 hi fibo-got bumped out A word about quarterly charts ok? there are many ways to profit in markets okay amos please. please look at the quarterly charts of the equity markets. Gary mentioned that S ans P made new highw, THe actual hight was 1514.50 a while ago and we are at potential double top. The dow broke a mnthly low and we are approaching the close of march. It is w "Window dressing time" (sorry for the fundamental info) But the way we close the quarterly chart can tell a lot about the rest of the year. I have no idea whjere we will be on 3.31.00 you dont? :) Bu if we closse somewhere in the middle in the Nasdaq and the Dow--that will mean the following: It will mean that over the last three months the forces of supply and demand have somewhat equalled. The trend is still very much up--but, as Jesse, used to say the horsemen of supply are starting to show up. This information can be very valuable in the next 9 months. If this is vague, it is because I am trying to emulate Nostradamus. lol! doing a good job,,,,,lol lol Most poeple do not bother to look at the quarterly, Around end of March it lol is very good thing to do--on Alll Commodities as well. amos can you look at volume in the stock market as the same like commodities YES I mean the NYSE volume as a whole The best volume is the total NYSE volume as appears in the WSJ I know that it is mportant for indicidual stocks becaus eit seems as the amrket has gone up over the yrs volume has natually increased Volume is always important and it is RARELY important. this increase in volume over the last few yrs isnt it because we have more stocks moreipos more ipo;s Its the Yuppy effect so volume naturally increased it is not necessarily a BC do we need over 3 billio to reach a bc ? we will get it i know we will or 4 billion ? Tempelton says we are going to 100,000 on the DOW yes I heard him by the way amos's sister said soenthing today abby? she is Abby cohen of Goldman sachs yes.. what? What did she say? she said that the s and p target is 1575 this yr I thought u dont want the news amos :) This is only 75 points, not too good he originally target was 1525 I always read Dear Abby and that corporate profits would increase I guess nothing will kill this market they raise rates God bless my 401(k) and market rallies :) :) :-) The stock market will be as soon as EVERYONE's a believer . . . a focus in april for us yep davep that is what we are all waiting for Ya APril Showers how so, Gary becasue of hat amos said the quarterly numbers k Any body follows bonds here? I know I sent alot of charts today a little bit and I wil discuss them tomorrow but I would like amos to discuss bonds and weekly gold I would have expect the bonds to drop a bunch today, but they didn't User [Randy /204.246.241.103] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 22:40:40 EST 2000 amos can you take us thrught the stetch run hi Randy There is a crucial resistance at 96-27 on june bonds. I do not remember hi all hi Randy payroll done lol :) where I got this nujmber , but it is on my alert system. So watch it. looks like the high on Jul 20 99 not tonight, had to show the wife how to run the computer.... SCARY!!! I see 95 ish wife or computer? lol little of both, LOL! lol@amos lol good en sharp as a tack that amos boy and tacky too amos, what time is it there?? yes that is for sure... 5;43 time for him to meet the pope for breakfast can i pls request an "appointment" for Amos to explain how continuation charts shud be 'concatenated'? pretty good for that time of morning how about thursday davep if amos is willing amos is like that all day long won't be able to be here Thursday, sorry. This is a wonderful ad: Join us all Thursday for the blessing of the concatenation of continuation charts. The Pope would like that k will will do it next week okay Davep k thanks amos you are in rare form tonight (or this morning) :-) :) medium rare he has pope on the brain lol bonds amos I do . :-) did someone spike amos coffee? :) the pope? Spike lee did it's the wine!! It is Purim any other questions? yes otherwise I think we willgo over more charts tomorrow please fiibo User [lmarsh /12.14.197.197] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 22:48:37 EST 2000 on the may bean chart the last hour had an hourly thrust on the last hour. amos would you have bought that? Yes and you should have bought it well u would ahve been 4 censts behind me :) i did around 526 with a stop at 521 it was a good clsoe I think we need to het above 530 again though o.k. thanks I like people who lead me with 4 cents a word on gold before we go? that was the high yesterday mine is at 519.75 better yet, 4 scents I thought u wanted to buy at 516 you yelled at me when I htought support was at 523 User [jim /152.202.27.21] joined forum at Tue Mar 21 22:51:45 EST 2000 okay chris a thrust is a thrusty there is a weekly chart I ent lol! and didnt get to go over tonight please ask chris did u have question or did you want our interpertation chris? did the gold auction cause the thrust today and can we expect it to continue? did u get the weekly gold chart today? y if so amos wanted to discuss the jump over the creek o the weekly what gold auction? nite everyone...and thanks again in short it appears to be accu,maultion User [sherri] left forum at Tue Mar 21 22:55:02 EST 2000 night sherri can you be here tomorrow and we can go into detail y I believe as well as amos that we are looking at higher prices so bullish at htese levels and details romorrow okay? k what gold auction? Where? SOtheby's? there was supposed to be aUK acution on golI gold well we will go over more charts tomorrow Unknown auction? something I heard on tfc forum -dont know much about it- supposed to be what caused the last rally LOL no news is good news remeber that one OK gn all well I will see you all tomorrow nite amos good night good folks nite amos thanks nite gary thanks stop drinking amos gn. yes bye good night thanks all goodnight good night all see you tomorrow User [amos] left forum at Tue Mar 21 22:58:39 EST 2000 nite all ok, good nite gary. Hope everyone a good nite, see ya tommorow goodnight everyone User [eric] left forum at Tue Mar 21 22:58:50 EST 2000 thanks, gary & amos User [fibo] left forum at Tue Mar 21 22:59:09 EST 2000 User [lmarsh] left forum at Tue Mar 21 22:59:12 EST 2000 User [davep] left forum at Tue Mar 21 22:59:22 EST 2000 User [gary fullett] left forum at Tue Mar 21 22:59:33 EST 2000